crop production2020/11/10 · november 10, 2020 november 2020 field crops acreage, yield, and...
TRANSCRIPT
Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, ChiefCrops Branch
November 10, 2020
Data Sources
November 10, 2020
November 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes
Operator Reported
Survey
Field Objective Yield
Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through
(Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 28
Ag Yield Sample Size = 7,791 October 30 - November 5
Sample Size = 3,930 October 24 - November 1
United States Corn ProgressPercent Harvested
November 10, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2020 CornAcreage, Yield, and Production
November 10, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Iowa 13,700 ↑ 1.5 12,700 ↓ 2.7 184 ↓ 7.1 2,336,800 ↓ 9.6
Illinois 11,400 ↑ 8.6 11,200 ↑ 9.8 195 ↑ 7.7 2,184,000 ↑ 18.3
Nebraska 10,200 ↑ 1.0 9,830 ↑ 0.2 185 ↑ 1.6 1,818,550 ↑ 1.9
Minnesota 8,000 ↑ 2.6 7,550 ↑ 4.1 202 ↑ 16.8 1,525,100 ↑ 21.6
Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 189 ↑ 11.8 992,250 ↑ 21.8
Production(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
NC
1.5 ↑ 5.0 ↑ 6.5
NC ↓ 1.5 ↓ 1.5
Planted Harvested Yield Production
90,978 82,527 175.8 14,506,795
↑ ↑
Top 5 States - By Production
1.4
Planted Harvested Yield
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
108.6
131.5
100.7
138.6
113.5
127.1126.7
134.4133.8136.9138.2
129.3
142.2
160.3
147.9149.1150.7
153.3
164.4
152.6
146.8
123.1
158.1
171.0168.4
174.6176.6176.4
167.5
175.8
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
November 2020 Corn YieldUnited States
November 10, 2020
Bushels per Acre
November 2020 Corn YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
November 10, 2020
November 2020 CornNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
November 10, 2020
November 2020 Corn Objective YieldPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab
November 10, 2020
Percent
70
96
73
96
51
96
80
96
29
94
68
96
1617
41
13
49
1
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mature Dent
November 2020 Corn Objective YieldEars per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region
November 10, 2020
Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
Sept
emb
er
Oct
ober
No
vem
be
r
Fina
l
Sept
emb
er
Oct
ober
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
ober
No
vem
be
r
Fina
l
Sept
emb
er
Oct
ober
No
vem
be
r
Fina
l
Sept
emb
er
Oct
ober
No
vem
be
r
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oct
ober
No
vem
be
r
Fina
l
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ears per Acre Yield
12.3
10.8
13.814.2
13.6
15.114.6 14.3
13.6
14.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2020 Corn ProductionUnited States
November 10, 2020
Billion Bushels
2020 U.S. Corn ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
November 10, 2020
14.4
14.6
14.8
15.0
15.2
15.4
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Soybean ProgressPercent Harvested
November 10, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2020 SoybeansAcreage, Yield, and Production
November 10, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
Illinois 10,300 ↑ 3.5 10,250 ↑ 4.0 58.0 ↑ 7.4 594,500 ↑ 11.7
Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 54.0 ↓ 1.8 503,280 ↑ 0.3
Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 51.0 ↑ 15.9 373,830 ↑ 25.5
Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 58.0 ↑ 13.7 329,440 ↑ 20.5
Nebraska 5,200 ↑ 6.1 5,150 ↑ 6.4 58.0 ↓ 0.9 298,700 ↑ 5.5
↑ 7.0 ↑ 17.4
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production
↑ 9.2
NC NC ↓ 2.3 ↓ 2.3
% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels)
↑ 9.8
83,105 82,289 50.7 4,170,262
Planted Harvested Yield Production
34.2
37.6
32.6
41.4
35.3
37.6
38.9 38.9
36.6
38.1
39.6
38.0
33.9
42.243.1 42.9
41.7
39.7
44.043.5
42.0
40.0
44.0
47.548.0
51.9
49.3
50.6
47.4
50.7
29
34
39
44
49
54
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
November 2020 Soybean YieldUnited States
November 10, 2020
Bushels per Acre
November 2020 Soybean YieldBushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
November 10, 2020
November 2020 SoybeansNASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
November 10, 2020
November 2020 Soybean Objective YieldPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab
November 10, 2020
Percent
54
95
53
93
49
93
57
93
25
91
64
94
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mature
November 2020 Soybean Objective YieldPods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region
November 10, 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre
35
40
45
50
55
60
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Sept
emb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Fina
l
Sept
emb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Fina
l
Sept
emb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Fin
al
Sept
emb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Fina
l
Sept
emb
er
Oc
tob
er
No
vem
ber
Fin
al
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
November 2020 Soybean ProductionUnited States
November 10, 2020
Billion Bushels
3.10 3.04
3.36
3.93 3.93
4.304.41 4.43
3.55
4.17
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 U.S. Soybean ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
November 10, 2020
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
4.45
4.50
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
United States Cotton ProgressPercent Harvested
November 10, 2020
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 2020 CottonAcreage, Yield, and Production
November 10, 2020
United States% Change from
Previous Estimate
% Change from
Previous Season
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 762 ↑ 31.8 6,157 ↓ 2.8
Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 968 ↑ 1.6 2,400 ↓ 12.4
Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,198 ↑ 7.7 1,310 ↓ 19.2
Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7
Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 890 ↓ 4.1 825 ↓ 19.7
Top 5 States - By Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production% ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY % ∆ PY
↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.7 ↓ 14.2
NC NC ↑ 0.2
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales)
12,116 9,005 911 17,092
↑ 0.3
↓ 11.8
Planted Harvested Yield Production
652
700
606
708
537
705
673
625607
632
705
665
730
855
831814
879
813
776
812
790
892
822838
766
867
905
882
823
911
480
530
580
630
680
730
780
830
880
930
980
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
November 2020 Cotton YieldUnited States
November 10, 2020
Pounds per Acre
November 2020 Cotton YieldPounds and Percent Change from Previous Month
November 10, 2020
November 2020 Cotton ProductionUnited States
November 10, 2020
Million Bales
15.6
17.3
12.9
16.3
12.9
17.2
20.9
18.4
19.9
17.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020
November 2020 Field CropsAcreage, Yield, and Production
Unit Unit
Peanuts Lb Lb
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.8 ↓ 0.8
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.2 ↑ 16.8 ↑ 4.0 ↑ 21.5
Potatoes Cwt Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.6 N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 4.2 ↓ 2.3 ↑ 0.2 ↓ 2.1
Rice Lb Cwt
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.1 ↓ 0.1
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 21.0 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 22.4
Sorghum Bu Bu
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.1 ↑ <0.1
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.0 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 1.6 ↑ 8.6
Sugarbeets Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 5.1 ↓ 5.2
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.9 ↑ 17.3 ↑ 1.4 ↑ 18.7
Sugarcane Ton Ton
% Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ <0.1 ↓ 1.1 ↓ 0.9
% Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 5.8
1,165 1,149
N/A 933
1,665
Yield(Units per Acre)
33,958
33,782
923 916
3,037 2,991
5,790 5,000
Harvested(1,000 Acres)
Planted(1,000 Acres)
454
7,560
74.2
29.6
36.2
370,770
Production(1,000 Units)
6,643,320
415,481
226,121
4,0931,623
Selected Upcoming Reports
November 10, 2020
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php
November 20 Cattle on Feed
November 24 Cotton Ginnings
November 30 Agricultural Prices
Cotton System
Fats and Oils
Grain Crushings
Census of Horticulture
Floriculture Crops
Cotton Ginnings
Crop Production
December 1
December 10
December 8
#StatChat
November 10, 2020
