current market scenario
TRANSCRIPT
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Current Market Scenario
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\Highlights - 2014
• An year to remember
• Stable Govt. at the Centre
• Rout in Crude oil
• Recovery in US Economy
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\Sensex Annual Performance
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
% R
etu
rn 26
73
13
42
47 47
-52
81
17
-25
9
30
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\2014 Performance – Other Indices
52.0BSE Auto
16.5BSE IT
8.5BSE Real Estate
18.3BSE FMCG
65.0BSE Bankex
47.4BSE Healthcare
7.9BSE Metals
69.2BSE Smallcap
54.7BSE Midcap
%Index
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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
FII Flows FII Flows -- Equity Equity
billion
US $
17.65
-11.97
17.45
29.3
- 0.35
24.3
20.1
16.1
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-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FII Flows FII Flows -- Debt Debt
billion
US $
-7.9
2.32.6
1.8
10.1
26.2
8.66.6
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\Markets On Consolidation
INDEX WATCH
11068
12191
27350
8224
Dec 12
11198
12583
27458
8284
Jan 09INDEX % Change
Nifty 0.7
Sensex 0.3
CNX Midcap 3.2
BSE Small Cap 1.1
• Govt. action on reforms bring hope for investors
• Global markets volatile
• Foreign investors on sidelines
• Crude Oil continue to decline
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\Govt. Walks Through Ordinance Way
• Logjam in Rajya Sabha forced Govt. to
take ordinance way
• Crucial reforms like hike in FDI limit in
insurance, Land Acquisition Act are
implemented through ordinance route
• Ordinance has to be passed in parliament
before six months
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\Crude Oil – Where is Bottom ?
50 % Fall inFour Months
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\WPI at Zero %
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\WPI – Historic Chart
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\Wholesale Price Inflation Index
Weight age
64.9
Manufactured Products (Bakery items, Liquor, cotton
yarn, polyster yarn, tyres, plastic
products, chemicals, paints,
metals, steel, TV, fan, computer, paper, plywood, building
products etc)
14.9Fuel & Power
20.1Primary Article (Food & Non Food)
Weightage %Items
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\Consumer Inflation Cooling Off
Consumer Price Inflation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Nov-
13
Dec-
13
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar-
14
Apr-
14
May-
14
Jun-
14
Jul-
14
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-
14
Nov-
14
Period
%
11.1
9.88.7
8.0 8.3 8.5 8.2 7.3 7.9 7.76.4
5.5
4.3
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\Consumer Inflation Index Weight age
26.3Miscellenous(Education, Medical care, Transport, Recreation)
4.7 Clothing,Footwear, Bedding
9.7 Housing
9.4 Fuel & Light
49.7 Food, Beverage,Tobacco
Weightage %Items
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\Consumer Inflation – Historical Chart
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Rupee Relatively Stable
Rupee Vs EuroRupee Vs Pound
Rupee Vs US $Rupee Vs Yen
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\Strong Dollar Index
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\Will Greece exit Euro Zone ?
• Austerity policy of current Govt. is
unpopular among Greece people
• Snap election on Jan 25
• If opponent party wins election, austerity
will be diluted which may be unacceptable
to Euro Zone
• Greece has 175 % Debt to GDP Ratio
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\Greece Bond – Still No Major Panic
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Domestic Mutual Fund Flows
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014
Cr.
- 1935 - 160
2022
7153
10,845
5,364
7,946
5,600 4,9636651
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49558 Cr
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\Sector Churning To Happen
• Domestic related sectors like financials,
infra to do well
• IT and Pharma may underperform on high
valuations and cross currency issues
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\Exciting Events Lined Up
• 3rd Quarter Results
• US President Obama visiting India on Jan 26
• RBI Policy Meet on Feb 3
• Union Budget on Feb Last
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Thank You