current situation in new hampshire · 2020. 4. 27. · current situation in new hampshire • 9,958...

Current Situation in New Hampshire• 9,958 people have already been tested for COVID-19

• 155 tests are underway at our Public Health Laboratories

• 819 people are confirmed to have COVID-19 (+31 from yesterday)

• 127 of these have required care in a hospital (+9 from yesterday)

• 21 people have died (+3 from yesterday)

• COVID-19 is widespread and present in most areas in NH

~I/_.... .. ~-.., ~~eJ NH DIVISION OF ~ Public Health Services ~ Department of Health and Human Services

Benjamin P. Chan, MD, MPHState Epidemiologist

April 9, 2020

COVID-19The Future of the Epidemic in NH


Important Highlights

• Mathematical models help predict the COVID-19 epidemic so we can direct resources and ultimately save lives

• Early data that our NH Strategy appears to be controlling the spread of COVID-19

• We need to continue to work together to protect each other and those most vulnerable in NH


Community mitigation is a package of actions that don’t involve medicines or vaccines and are important for stopping the spread of COVID-19:

1. Staying home

2. Keeping a safe distance of at least 6 feet from others

3. Moving to remote learning for schools

4. Encouraging tele-work for businesses

5. Cancelling mass gatherings

6. Closing non-essential businesses

What is Community Mitigation?


1. Slow how fast the epidemic is spreading

2. Spread out when people get sick (delay the peak)

3. Reduce the overall number of patients

4. Decrease deaths

5. Prevent overwhelming our healthcare system

Goals of Community Mitigation



Days Since First Case

Dai

ly C

ases

Pandemic with no interventions




Dai

ly C

ases




Dai

ly C

ases

Multiple combined interventions are necessary to have the greatest effect at slowing the spread of COVID-19


We Can Decrease the Number of Deaths


Dai

ly C

ases

Peak (No Interventions)40,000 Infections800 Deaths

Peak (Community Mitigation)20,000 Infections400 Deaths


We Can Decreased Hospitalizations


Dai

ly C

ases

Peak (No Interventions)8,000 Hospitalizations

Peak (Community Mitigation)2,600 Hospitalizations

Hospital Bed Capacity


Outbreak Suppression


Dai

ly C

ases

If our social distancing efforts are strong enough, we could stop the outbreak



Dai

ly C

ases

Relaxing Social Distancing



Dai

ly C

ases

Relaxing Social Distancing

If we relax our social distancing too quickly, we risk subsequent outbreaks of COVID-19


U.S. Hospital Resource Use

IHME. COVID-19 Projections. Website: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america.

220k

200k

180k

160k

140k c ::,

120k 0 (.)

Q) (.) 100k ... ::, 0 1/) 80k Q)

0::

60k

40k

20k

0

3 days until peak resource use on

April 11, 2020

Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date

All beds needed

94,249 beds

ICU beds needed

19,438 beds

➔

➔

Invasive ventilators needed

16,524 ventilators

Bed Shortage

15,852 beds

ICU Bed Shortage

9,047 beds

HHlf P•@f All beds ICU beds Invasive ventilators

Feb 01 Mar 01 Apr 01 May 01 Jun 01 Jul 01 Aug 01

Date

Al l beds needed (projected) ICU beds needed (projected) Invasive ventilators needed (projected)

All resources specific to COVID-19 patients.

Shaded areas indicate uncertainty (D


Rates of COVID-19 by State

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Rhode Island

Vermont

New Hampshire

Maine

Cas

es p

er

10

0,0

00

Peo

ple

Date

250

200

150

100

50

0


Epidemic Curve for Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in New Hampshire

Date of Illness Onset

Nu

mb

er

of

Cas

es

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 LI) N

-......... N

r-N -......... N

en N -......... N

N -......... ("()

\.0 -......... ("()

00 -......... ("()

0 .--I -......... ("()

N .--I -......... ("()

\.0 .--I -......... ("()

00 .--I -......... ("()

0 N -......... ("()

N N

-......... ("()

Period of Uncertainty

\.0 N -......... ("()

00 N -......... ("()

0 ("() -......... ("()


Number of People Tested Each Day in NH

Date of Reported Result

Nu

mb

er

of

Peo

ple

Tes

ted

□ Negative labs ■ Positive labs 800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

~~~~~~#$~#~#####~~~


Daily COVID-19 Hospital Census in NH

Data provided by the NH Hospital Association

Date

Dai

ly H

osp

ital

ized

Cas

es

100

90

80 74

70

60 57

52

so

40

32

30

20

10 6 7 9 8

0-------------.---------------.------.------------------,.---.-------------. 3/19 3/20 3/21 3/22 3/23 3/24 3/25 3/26 3/27 3/28 3/29 3/30 3/31 4/1 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 4/7 4/8


Total Number of COVID-19 Deaths in NH

Date

Tota

l Dea

ths

30

25

20

15

10

5

0


COVID-19 Deaths in NH Each Day

Date

Nu

mb

er

of

Dea

ths

D Non-LTCF Associated ■ LTCF Associated

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


Summary of Key Points• This epidemic will last many more weeks

• Our NH strategy appears to be working

• We need everybody to stay at home to protect people, especially older adults and those with chronic medical conditions

• Models and our own NH data show that now is the critical time to continue our community mitigation strategy

• Thank you for the work you are all doing to help stop the spread of this novel coronavirus


current situation in new hampshire · 2020. 4. 27. · current situation in new hampshire • 9,958...

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