data, analysis & insight for a stronger industry industry

Data, Analysis & Insight for a Stronger Industry Building Bridges between Franchisees, Franchisors & Financiers

Industry Data Report Unit & Sales Growth 2020 - 2021

Table of Contents Pages Unit Development & Closure Analysis

➢ 10 Year Unit Development and Closure Summary by Segment 2

➢ 10 Year System-wide Unit Count by Chain Exhibit 3 - 4

➢ 2020 Actual/2021 Projected Unit Detail by Chain 5

➢ 2020 Actual/2021 Projected Unit % Change by Chain vs. 10 Year Average 6

➢ Unit Development Trends 7

➢ Closure Rates Trends 8

Systemwide Sales Growth & Market Share Analysis

➢ 10 Year Systemwide Sales & Market Share Summary by Segment 9

➢ 10 Year Systemwide Sales & Market Share by Chain Exhibit 10 - 11

➢ Systemwide Sales & Market Share Trends 12

Data in spreadsheet form available at http://www.ChainRestaurantData.com

Copyright: This Restaurant Research LLC document is copyrighted material. Due to the No Electronic Theft (NET) Act of 1997,

electronic forwarding, or other forms of redistribution, without the express permission of Restaurant Research LLC, are

violations of law and could be subject to fines of up to $250,000 and up to five years of imprisonment, even when no financial

gain or commercial advantage accrues to the forwarder/re-distributor. Copyright 2021 Restaurant Research® LLC. All rights

reserved.

Report Highlights

• 10-year history for 56 $1B+ chains including: (1) total units; (2) new units; (3) closures; (4) systemwide sales;

and (5) system sales market share.

Conclusions

• Despite the most difficult operating environment in the industry’s history, gross development increased +2.1%.

This reflected the ability of certain QSR chains to leverage their post-lockdown competitive advantages into new

development.

• Projected 2021 gross new unit development of +2.7% is slightly above 2019’s +2.6% growth rate, but still

represents a continuation of the longer-term trend of slowing development relative to the +3.8% 2014 peak.

• Notably, 2021 development headwinds include ramping material costs (lumber CPI +74% YTD May 2021).

We will monitor the level of impact this material cost headwind will have on the development pipeline.

• 2020 closure rates for the $1B+ chains were much more manageable (-3.7%) than expected because of QSR

strength and because of government assistance for FSR.

• The 2020 $1B+ chain systemwide sales outperformance (relative to the rest of the industry) reflects the clear

benefit of scale which helps the national brands to excel around tech, access, and marketing.

• Net/net, the $1B+ QSR Chains were able to recoup ~10 years of market share losses in 2020.

Repor

t Outlin

e

http://www.chainrestaurantdata.com/

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021P 10 Yr. Avg.

(2011-2020)

Fast Casual

Chicken

Coffee/Bakery

Pizza

Sub-Sandwich

Sandwich

Family

Casual

Total

Total New Units

Total Units

Net Growth %

Sandwich

Chicken

Casual

Fast Casual

Coffee/Bakery

Pizza

Family

Sub-Sandwich

Total

Total Closed Units

Closure Rates (Sorted by 2020 Closures Low to High)

$1B+ Restaurant Chains Unit Development & Closure Rate Segment Summary

Gross Unit Development (Sorted by 2020 Growth High to Low)

Repor

t Outlin

e

Total Co. Units Fran. Units% Fran.

Owned20/'19 CAGR '11 - '20

McDonald's

Taco Bell (1)

Burger King

Wendy's

Dairy Queen (2)

Sonic Drive-In

Arby's

Chick-fil-A

Jack in the Box

Hardee's

Five Guys

Carl's Jr.

Zaxby's

Whataburger

Checkers/ Rally's

Culver's

Sandwich

Subway

Jimmy John's

Jersey Mike's

Firehouse Subs

Sub-Sandwich

Starbucks (5)

Dunkin Donuts (4)

Tim Horton's

Krispy Kreme (6)

Coffee/Bakery

Domino's

Pizza Hut (2)

Little Caesars (3)

Papa John's

Pizza

KFC (2)

Popeyes

Wingstop

Church's

Bojangles'

Chicken

FYE 2020 Unit Summary Net Unit Growth Rates

2014 2015 2017 2018 2019

U.S. System-wide Unit Summary 2011 - 2020 (Sorted by Total 2020 Units)

Includes All $1B+ Chains and Other Select Concepts

20162011 2012 2013

Repor

t Outlin

e

Total Co. Units Fran. Units% Fran.

Owned20/'19 CAGR '11 - '20

FYE 2020 Unit Summary Net Unit Growth Rates

2014 2015 2017 2018 2019

U.S. System-wide Unit Summary 2011 - 2020 (Sorted by Total 2020 Units)


20162011 2012 2013

Applebee's

Chili's Grill & Bar

Buffalo Wild Wings

Olive Garden

Outback

Red Lobster

Texas Roadhouse

LongHorn

Red Robin

T.G.I. Friday's

BJ's Restaurants

Cheesecake Factory

Casual

Chipotle

Panera Bread

Qdoba

Moe's Southwest Grill

Corner Bakery Café

Fast Casual

IHOP

Denny's

Cracker Barrel

Bob Evans

Golden Corral

Perkins

Family

Total

(4) Dunkin' Donuts figures include Baskin-Robbins combo units.

(5) Starbucks does not franchise, but has licensed units which are included under franchise stores.

(6) Krispy Kreme company store counts include consolidated franchisee units.

Source: SEC filings, company reports and Franchise Disclosure Documents RR Estimate

(1) KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and Subway excludes licensed units.

(2) Dairy Queen figures include DQ Treat, DQ Limited Brazier, DQ Grill & Chill direct-licensed outlets, DQ Brazier direct-licensed outlets, Texas DQ direct-licensed outlets, DQ Grill & Chill sub franchised

territory operator outlets and DQ Brazier sub franchised territory operator outlets.

(3) Excludes non-traditional stores located in Kmart from 2001 - 2008. From 2009 forward, total unit count data includes non-traditional stores.

Repor

t Outlin

e

Fran.

Concept Total Co. Fran. Total Co. Fran. Transfers Total Co. Fran. Total Co. Fran.

Arby's

Burger King

Carl's Jr.

Checkers/ Rally's

Chick-fil-A

Culver's

Dairy Queen (1)

Five Guys

Hardee's

Jack in the Box

McDonald's

Sonic Drive-In

Taco Bell (2)

Wendy's

Whataburger

Zaxby's

Sandwich

Firehouse Subs

Jersey Mike's

Jimmy John's

Subway (2)

Sub-Sandwich

Dunkin Donuts (4)

Krispy Kreme (5)

Starbucks (6)

Tim Horton's

Coffee/Bakery

Domino's

Little Caesars (3)

Papa John's

Pizza Hut (2)

Pizza

Bojangles'

Church's

KFC (2)

Popeyes

WingstopChicken

Applebee's

BJ's Restaurants

Buffalo Wild Wings

Cheesecake Factory

Chili's Grill & Bar

LongHorn

Olive Garden

Outback

Red Lobster

Red Robin

T.G.I. Friday's

Texas Roadhouse

Casual

Chipotle

Corner Bakery Café


Panera Bread

Qdoba

Fast Casual

Bob Evans

Cracker Barrel

Denny's

Golden Corral

IHOP

Perkins

Family

Total

(5) Krispy Kreme company store counts include consolidated franchisee units.

(6) Starbucks does not franchise, but has licensed units which are included under franchise stores.

2020 Actual/2021 Projected Domestic Unit Activity DetailNew Units - 2020 Closed Units - 2020 Unit Count - 2020 Projected New - 2021

Source: SEC filings, company reports and Franchise Disclosure Documents RR Estimate

(1) The majority of DQ openings and closings include conversions to/from other DQ concepts.

(2) KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and Subway excludes licensed units.

(3) Includes non-traditional stores located in Kmart.

(4) Dunkin Donuts figures include Baskin-Robbins combo units.

Repor

t Outlin

e

2021 Projected

Concept Openings Closings Net GrowthFranchise

TransfersOpenings Openings Closings

CAGR Net

Growth

Franchise

Transfers

Arby's

Burger King

Carl's Jr.

Checkers/ Rally's

Chick-fil-A

Culver's

Dairy Queen

Five Guys

Hardee's

Jack in the Box

McDonald's

Sonic Drive-In

Taco Bell

Wendy's

Whataburger

Zaxby's

Sandwich

Firehouse Subs

Jersey Mike's

Jimmy John's

Subway

Sub-Sandwich

Dunkin Donuts

Krispy Kreme

Starbucks

Tim Horton's

Coffee/Bakery

Domino's

Little Caesars

Papa John's

Pizza Hut

Pizza

Bojangles'

Church's

KFC

Popeyes

Wingstop

Chicken

Applebee's

BJ's Restaurants

Buffalo Wild Wings

Cheesecake Factory

Chili's Grill & Bar

LongHorn

Olive Garden

Outback

Red Lobster

Red Robin

T.G.I. Friday's

Texas Roadhouse

Casual

Chipotle

Corner Bakery Café


Panera Bread

Qdoba

Fast Casual

Bob Evans

Cracker Barrel

Denny's

Golden Corral

IHOP

Perkins

Family

Total

2020 Actual/2021 Projected and 10-year Annual Average Domestic Unit Growth Detail2020 Rates 10-Year Average

Source: SEC filings, company reports and Franchise Disclosure Documents RR estimate

Repor

t Outlin

e


IDR: Unit & Sales Growth 2021 Source: RR Estimates

Unit Development Trends

➢

➢

➢

Repor

t Outlin

e



Closure Rates Trends

➢

➢

➢

➢

Repor

t Outlin

e

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chicken

Pizza

Sandwich

Fast Casual

Coffee/Bakery

Casual

Sub-Sandwich

Family

$1B+ Chains Sales

Y/Y % Change

Restaurant Industry

Y/Y % Change

Change 2020

vs. 2019

10 Yr. Change

(2020 vs. 2011)

Sandwich

Pizza

Chicken

Fast Casual

Coffee/Bakery

Sub-Sandwich

Family

Casual

$1B+ Chains

$1B+ Chains Share of

Total Industry

$1B+ Restaurant Chains Systemwide Sales Growth & Market Share Summary ($'000)10 Yr. CAGR

(2011-2020)Systemwide Sales Growth (Sorted by 2020)

Systemwide Market Share as a % of Total (Sorted by 2020 Change)

Repor

t Outlin

e

FYE '20/

FYE '19

Compound

Growth '11 - '202020

Change

'20/'19

Change

'20/'11

McDonald's

Chick-fil-A

Taco Bell

Burger King

Wendy's

Sonic Drive-In

Arby's

Dairy Queen

Jack in the Box

Whataburger

Hardee's

Zaxby's

Culver's

Five Guys

Carl's Jr.

Checkers/ Rally's

Sandwich

Subway

Jimmy John's

Jersey Mike's

Firehouse Subs

Sub-Sandwich

Starbucks

Dunkin Donuts

Krispy Kreme

Tim Horton's

Coffee/Bakery

Domino's

Pizza Hut

Little Caesars

Papa John's

Pizza

KFC

Popeyes

Wingstop

Bojangles'

Church's

Chicken

U.S. System-wide Sales Summary 2011 - 2020 ($'000s)


2019 2020Annual Growth Rates Segment Market Share

201820162015 20172011 2012 2013 2014

Repor

t Outlin

e

FYE '20/

FYE '19

Compound

Growth '11 - '202020

Change

'20/'19

Change

'20/'11

U.S. System-wide Sales Summary 2011 - 2020 ($'000s)


2019 2020Annual Growth Rates Segment Market Share

201820162015 20172011 2012 2013 2014

Olive Garden

Applebee's

Buffalo Wild Wings

Chili's Grill & Bar

Texas Roadhouse

Outback

Red Lobster

Cheesecake Factory

LongHorn

Red Robin

BJ's Restaurants

T.G.I. Friday's

Casual

Panera Bread

Chipotle

Qdoba


Corner Bakery Café

Fast Casual

IHOP

Denny's

Cracker Barrel

Golden Corral

Bob Evans

Perkins

Family

$1B+ QSR Total

$1B+ FSR Total

$1B+ Chains Total

Restaurant Industry

RR estimateRep

ort O

utline



Systemwide Sales & Market Share Trends

➢

➢

➢

Repor

t Outlin

e

Visit www.chainrestaurantdata.com or contact us at

(203) 829-9005 or [email protected] to:• Ask us about custom research projects

• Inquire about RR Thermometer email marketing opportunities

Copyright: This Restaurant Research LLC document is copyrighted material. Due to the No Electronic Theft (NET) Act of

1997, electronic forwarding or other forms of redistribution, without the express permission of Restaurant Research LLC, are

violations of law and could be subject to fines of up to $250,000 and up to five years of imprisonment, even when no financial

gain or commercial advantage accrues to the forwarder/re-distributor. Copyright 2021 Restaurant Research® LLC. All rights

reserved.

Sources: All data represents RR estimates which are derived from various private and public sources.

Disclosure: Restaurant Research LLC often sells report subscriptions to concepts under our coverage.

Disclaimer of Liability: Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources Restaurant Research® LLC

believes to be reliable, RR does not guarantee its accuracy. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice

and in no case can be considered as an offer or solicitation with regard to the purchase or sales of any securities. Restaurant

Research’s analyses and opinions are not a guarantee of the future performance of any company or individual franchisee.

RR disclaims all liability for any misstatements or omissions that occur in the publication of this report. In making this report

available, no client, advisory, fiduciary or professional relationship is implied or established. This report is intended to provide

an overview of the restaurant industry, but cannot be used as a substitute for independent investigations and sound business

judgment.

Repor

t Outlin

e