crop modeling

IFPRI… IS SPATIAL TOO!

JAWOO KOO, ZHE GUO, AND STANLEY WOODINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

CGIAR-CSI 2009, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya (1 APRIL 2009)

final remarksintroductionfertilizer

profitability

It turns out… believe it or not…

BASELINE characterization,potential productivity, profitability

CHANGESnutrient & water managements, germplasm adoption, climate change, etc.

ECONOMICEVALUTIONdialogue with stakeholders/user groups on scenarios, evaluation, and technology-scale evaluation

SPATIAL CHARATERIZATION & EVALUATION FRAMEWORK

SChEF

Ingredients

SPAM

Production systems characterization

SIMPLR

Price modeling

DREAM

Web-based data query and visualization tools

SChEF

GRID-BASED REGIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF CROP RESPONSES TO CHANGES

DYNAMIC CROP SYSTEMS MODELS

ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCTIVITY RESPONSES TO DETERMINANTS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS Variety

Nutrient management

Water management

Biotic constraints

Abiotic constraints

Climate change

DYNAMIC CROP SYSTEMS MODELS DSSAT

APSIM

WOFOST

ORYZA

IFPRI HPC (80 CPU’s)

Climatology Soils Cropping Patterns Crop Variety Planting Window Planting Density Water Management Nutrient Management (N and P*) Residue Management* Biotic Stresses* Soil Constraints and Interventions (P and pH)*

CROP SYSTEMS MODEL APPLICATIONS

SIMPLR MODELING TEMPLATE

*Coming Soooooooon!

HISTORIC CLIMATOLOGY

WorldClim

Global / Monthly mean of 1950-2000 Tmax,Tmin,Rain / 1km

DAILY WEATHER

NASA-POWER

Global / Daily 1997-recentSrad,Tmax,Tmin,Rain / 1 degree*

*WorldWeather downscales to 15’

GLOBAL SOIL PROFILES

ISRIC WISE 1.1 DATABASE

Continent Count

Africa 1300

Asia 975

Australia 31

Europe 370

North America 291

Oceania 49

South America 388

Total 3404

GENERIC SOIL PROFILES (HWSD+WISE1.1)

HC27: Fertility x Texture x Depth

Latest Dataset Release (Ver.SIM09064)

SPATIAL EVALUATION OF MAIZE PERFORMANCE

Crop: MAIZE Model: DSSAT-CSM v4 Region: SSA Resolution: 5 ARC-MIN Climate: NASA-POWER

(1998-2007) Soils: HC27 Managements:

Monthly planting window Rainfed/Irrigation Three cultivars

(long, medium, and short maturity) Supplemental N fertilizer

applications(0, 20, …, 100 kg*N+/ha)

REFERENCE LAYERS

GLOBAL YIELD POTENTIAL

MAIZE | Water limited, med. maturity, coarse soil texture

MAIZE | Potential with no limitation

Cassava, Chickpea, Cowpea, Fababean, Maize, Millet, Mungbean, Potato, Sorghum, Soybean, Sweet Potato, Wheat, Rice

WOFOST & ORYZA Global, 1-degree NASA-POWER daily weather

(1997-2007) Options:

Biweekly planting window Water-limit vs. potential Sandy or clayey soil texture Three maturity classes

HOTSPOT ANALYSIS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Scenario A2A (2050-2000)MAIZE

kg/ha

< -3,000

-2,999 - -2,000

-1,999 - -1,000

-999 - -500

-499 - 500

501 - 1,000

1,001 - 2,000

> 2,001

kg/ha

< -3,000

-2,999 - -2,000

-1,999 - -1,000

-999 - -500

-499 - 500

501 - 1,000

1,001 - 2,000

> 2,001

Scenario A2A (2050-2000)GROUNDNUTMaize: Climate change hotspots (red)

REDUCED FORM OF CROP SYSTEMS MODEL

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Crop model-generated ASPATIAL

training datasets

ANN SPATIALClimate, Soil

Yield impacts+

NEW THEME 2009

ABIOTIC CONSTRAINTS TO CROP PRODUCTIVITY AND PRODUCTION

Beyond Nitrogen:

1. GIS: What is the location and severity of key soil

productivity constraints in SSA? What crop areas are

affected?

2. SIMPLR: How much yield and production is “currently”

being lost because of these constraints? What is the

annual costs of those losses?

3. SIMPLR: To what extent can the impact of these

constraints be mitigated by improved

inputs/management interventions?

4. DREAM: What is the potential size and distribution

of economic benefits of mitigation/intervention hbo.com

Policy Experiments for a more enabling environment(a) negotiated urea import discounts

(b) reduced unit transport costs (c) reduce border crossing costs

Location & Production System Specific

Fertilizer Responses

(Climate/Weather

Soils, Management)

FarmgateOutputPrices

FarmgateFertilizer

Prices

Transport Costs

(on & off road)

Fertilizer Import Costs

Markets

Key Factors Influencing Fertilizer Adoption & Profitability

Maize price

U.S. $/Mt Y2008 Y2006 Y2004

Migori : KE 395.9841 224.3687 219

Kitale : KE 270.7492 153.4093 153.3523

Eldoret : KE 310.3333 191.3333 206.6667

Nakuru : KE 267.4 169.6667 219

Nairobi : KE 293.6 225 219.25

Kisumu : KE 395.3333 224 223.9167

Mombasa : KE 291.4 217.3333 210.75

Kitui : KE 347.6927 220.6128 245

Busia : KE 265.5 168.875 138

Kigali : RW 283.8 270.25 184.2

Ruhengeri : RW 259.5 240.1667 191

Dar es salaam : TZ 306.6 187.8333 164.6667

Arusha : TZ 276.6981 156.78 187.6364

Mbeya : TZ 231.8831 146.615 114.25

Mwanza : TZ 260.012 205.1448 186.9

Songea : TZ 224.5972 153.7778 108.5

Sumbawanga : TZ 211.7557 133.8889 118

Tanga : TZ 246.4771 196.1111 176.3333

Bukoba : TZ 277.8545 219.2222 206

Iganga : UG 252.2355 155.375 133

Kabale : UG 237.6648 175.9224 168.3636

Kampala : UG 245.2 181.5 172.1667

Kasese : UG 200.5419 181 153.3333

masindi : UG 205.2909 151.9588 150.1818

Mbale : UG 303 159.75 165.3333

Lira : UG 254 171.25 150.6667

U.S.$/kg Stevedore Handling Removal Charge storage Terminal handling

Kenya 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.0005 0.008

Uganda 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.0005 0.008

Tanzania 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008

Rwanda 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008

Burundi 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008

Port/borderprocessing fee

Source: www.tradeafrica.bizA Guide For Maize Traders on Regulatory Requirements For Import and Export Maize in East African Community

Source: Regional Agricultural trade intelligence network

Policy Scenarios

Baseline

Negotiated decrease in importprice of Urea (50%)

Scenario:1 Reduced Procurement Cost

Reduce road transport costs by 20% per ton per km

Scenario 2: Road Transport Cost

Border-crossing cost reduces 50%

Scenario 3: Reduce Border Cost

Maize Markets & Market Prices

40 towns & cities reporting maize prices

40 maize “marketsheds”

2005 av. maize prices in each marketshed

Maize transport costs from farmgate to target market

Net maize “farmgate” price

VCRs: Baseline and policy scenarios 1 & 2(estimated at 35kg N/ha)

1: 50% lower urea procurement price

2: 20% lower road transport cost

< 0.5

0.5-1.0

1.1-2.0

2.1-4.0

>4.0

Baseline

VCR By Country & Market Access(early 2008)

Country

VCR by Market Access Class

High Med. Low Average

Burundi 2.5 2 2 2.25

Kenya 2.75 2.25 1.5 2.25

Rwanda 2 1.5 1.5 1.75

Tanzania 3.25 2.75 1.25 2.5

Uganda 3 2 1.75 2

All 2.75 2.25 1.5 2.25

WHERE TO INVEST?

AG MARKET FINDER | marketfinder.info

WHERE TO INVEST?

AG MARKET FINDER | marketfinder.info

Demonstration*http://marketfinder.info

*Please, FREE the network for a moment!

THINGS KEEP US BUSY

UPDATES

SPAM* UPDATE

2000 ver.3

2005

AEZ UPDATE FOR SSA

HARVESTCHOICE DOMAIN

VISUALIZATIONS: GKS-2-HMNS

*NO name change!

DATA EXPLORATION AND VISUALIZATION

DROPPR

Mashup Ingredients Map data (e.g., Shapefile) Map tiles using GMapCreator Google Maps API

Base map Interface Marker Reverse Geocoding Overlaying tiles

Ajaxing using jQuery Apache Web Server Data tables in MySQL Programming in PHP (CodeIgniter) Google Chart API Lots of Coffee