GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through August 2016
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Who Is Gray?
Program and Market Evaluation Data
Employment BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates Gray Research
Student Inquiries GrayReports
Demographics US Census
Job Postings CEB TalentNeuron
Programs Price Projects Place § Program portfolio
strategy § Program Profiles § Program development
§ City targeting § Location selection § Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity § Price positioning § Price optimization
§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation § Acquisition analysis § Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition IPEDS+
Gray’s Program Evaluation System is available as a SaaS solution.
Enhanced Crosswalks
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Agenda
1. Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
2. Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1. City and Program
2. Programs and Occupations
3. IPEDS: 2015 Update
4. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
- - - - -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016
Introduce how to read chart: years and colors
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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiries have decreased an average of 9% year-over-year in 2016.
-9%
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
However, in August, inquiry volumes nearly reached last year’s levels and January’s highs.
-0.7% YoY
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
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Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries have increased almost every month this year. They jumped 22% in August.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
+22% YoY
Define Branded Inquiries: Inquiries for a particular school’s brand name
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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year. § In August, external inquiries were down almost 10%.
-10% YoY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.
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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. § Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 1% and as much as 22%.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
+11%
+22%
+1%
Explain Conversion
Rates
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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2016, conversion rates seem to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels. § Q2 2016 has one month left to mature and is close to Q1 2014 levels. § Behind the scenes, Branded conversion rates are falling. Conversion rates for External inquiries are flat.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
-1%
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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For May inquiries, total student conversions fell 17% year-over-year. § Conversions are taking longer, so May might continue to improve. § As they mature, conversions in June, July, and August are likely to reach last year’s levels.
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-17% YoY
Transition: Let’s turn to April May and June
Immature Months1
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.41 $44.65 $- $- $- $-
$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
In August, the price of an External inquiry was nearly flat year-over-year. § So far in 2016, the average price for paid inquiries is up only 2% year-over-year.
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
-0.2%
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Agenda
1. Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
2. Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1. City and Program
2. Programs and Occupations
3. IPEDS: 2015 Update
4. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-to-date, inquiries for online programs have dipped 1% year-over-year.
-1%
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Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Reversing the trend, inquiries for online programs jumped more than 15% year-over-year in each of the last two months.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
15% YoY
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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online programs declined 12% in May. § Conversions are taking longer, rising from three months to five or six. § For example, March inquiries continued to convert; they are now up 13%. § June, July, and August might beat last year.
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
10,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
-12% YoY 1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In August, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 17% year-over-year.
§ The first seven months of 2016 have fallen below year-ago levels by an average of 14%.
2012
0 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-17% YoY 1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
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Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 13% YoY in May. § However, June and July may beat last year.
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-13% YOY Immature Months1
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
2. Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1. City and Program
2. Programs and Occupations
3. IPEDS: 2015 Update
4. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
-21%
-11%
-6%
-4%
-1%
61%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Associate's
Bachelor's
Master's
Doctorate
Certificate
Post-master's certificate
Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (June to August)
Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months
Post-Master’s certificates were the only degree-level that grew, but they grew 61%. § Surprisingly, Certificates out performed higher-level degrees over the past three months.
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Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
For the most part, Branded inquiry channels outperformed External inquiries. § Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel, by far. § Six different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter. § A new branded channel (Event) has appeared for the first time this year and shown strong volumes. § Two external channels grew year-over-year for this period.
-57% -56%
-41% -36% -33% -26%
-16% 3% 9% 12%
21% 27%
87% 207%
358%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
All Other Internal: Branded PPC - Inbound Call: Branded PPL: External Referral: Branded Display: Branded Email: Branded Interactive: Branded Offline Media: Branded Organic: Branded Affiliate: External PPC: Branded Website: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External Social Media: Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels
(June through August YoY)
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
2. Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1. City and Program
2. Programs and Occupations
3. IPEDS: 2015 Update
4. Summary
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
The Big 5 Programs: August Growth
All of the Big Five programs shrank in August. Nursing took a surprising 5% drop. § Criminal Justice/Police Science performed the best, but fell 4%. § Medical Assistant dropped 15% (again). § Business Administration dropped over 30% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.
-4% -5%
-15%
-33%
-39% -45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Business Admin: Associate's -
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change
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-49% -87%
36% 18%
-22%
690%
584%
246%
144% 119%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
Human Services Counseling Psychology
Cosmetology Medical Insurance Coding
Health Information/Medical Records
Technology
The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Two new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1. § All five programs increased over 100% in August2. § Human Services, Counseling Psychology, and Medical Insurance Coding are repeats from last month.
1. Includes the top 75 programs in inquiry volume since January 2012. 2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.
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-15%
-6%
-2%
-1%
5%
7%
9%
9%
13%
13%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Cosmetology Business Admin: Associate's - Business Admin: Bachelor's + Human Services Counseling Psychology Medical Assistant Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Health Info/Medical Records Tech. Medical Insurance Coding
Year-Over-Year Change in New Job Postings
Change in New Job Postings for “Big 5” and “Fast 5” Programs
Six of the “Big 5” and “Fast 5” programs had an increase in new job postings over the past year.
§ All of the healthcare-related fields that are shown experienced an increase in job postings. § Business Administration programs are suffering decreases in student demand and job postings.
Growing Student Demand and Jobs
Growing Student Demand, Declining Jobs
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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Only one of the Big 5 cities grew year-over-year. § Philadelphia grew 7% in August. § Los Angeles had the largest decline–a drop of almost 40%.
-11% -10%
6%
-7%
-17%
7%
-6%
-16% -19%
-39%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
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New Job Postings: Ten Largest Programs in Philadelphia
In Philadelphia, The programs with the most job postings range from CDL to computer science.
§ Bachelor’s in Business, as always, is the largest programs for job postings. § Truck and Bus Driving (CDL) is second with 28,000 new postings.
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Business Admin: Bachelor's +
Truck and Bus Driver
Registered Nursing
Computer Science
Marketing/Marketing Management
Computer and Information Sciences
Selling Skills and Sales Operations
Information Technology
Culinary Arts/Chef Training
Business Admin: Associate's -
New Job Postings Ten Largest Programs in Philadelphia
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New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Programs in Philadelphia1
Programs with the fastest growing job postings are ALL in health care and health sciences.
§ Many of these are traditional Allied Health programs. § But, microbiology, immunology, neurobiology, and epidemiology also made the list.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiographer.
Medical Radiologic Tech/Science - Radiation Therapist.
Rehabilitation Aide.
Sterile Processing Technology/Technician.
Microbiology, General.
Medical Microbiology and Bacteriology.
Clinical/Medical Laboratory Technician.
Immunology.
Neurobiology and Anatomy.
Epidemiology.
New Job Postings Ten Fastest Growing Programs in Philadelphia
1. Includes only programs with more than 200 new job postings over the past year.
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Program Evaluation Metrics
Gray evaluates four types of market data to identify programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow.
Student Demand
Industry Inquiries
Inquiry Growth: Unit Growth
Inquiry Growth: % Change
Completions: Unit Volume
Completions: Unit Growth
Employment
Job Postings
Total Employment
Job Growth
Job Postings Per Graduate
Placement Rates
Competitive Intensity
Number of Competitors
Competitor Mix
(e.g., Public vs. For-Profit)
Cost Per Inquiry
Completions Per Capita
Degree Fit
Completions: Degree Level
Employment: Degree Level
Wages
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In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.
Program Scorecard: Marketing/Marketing Management
The demand is strong for this program. But demand is not all you should consider.
It is primarily Bach and Grad program
Lots of competition in Phil.
But, far more job postings than graduates. (the average is 5 job postings per grad for a typical large program)
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CEB TalentNeuron: Employment Summary
Digging further into the job postings confirms the demand shown in the scorecard.
§ The Hiring Scale shows how hard it is for employers to find qualified candidates. § We can provide required skills and certifications to help focus course materials.
Source: CEB TalentNeuron analysis of SOCs 11-2021, 11-2011, 13-1161.
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
2. Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1. City and Program
2. Programs and Occupations
3. IPEDS: 2015 Update
4. Summary
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NCES Crosswalks
NCES crosswalks assume a tight link between program of study and occupation.
§ NCES crosswalks a B.A. in History to just four occupations (SOCs).
History, General CIP 54.0101
Managers, All Other SOC 11-9199
Historians SOC 19-3093
Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP
History Teachers, Postsecondary SOC 25-1125
Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education
SOC 25-2031
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Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts
According to the U.S. Census, History majors are actually employed in over 400 SOCs, not four.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records
1 4
462
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs
Count of Programs and Occupations CIP 54.0101 History, General
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What Do History Majors Do? Teach, go to law school, become CEOs….
$18,840 $22,480
$28,340 $29,700
$39,690 $42,380
$44,180 $44,290 $44,580 $45,520
$59,210 $60,450
$64,150 $65,290
$73,640
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Retail salespersons Secretaries and administrative assistants
First-line supervisors of retail sales workers Clergy
Sales representatives, wholesale and Elementary and middle school teachers
Postsecondary teachers Librarians
Secondary school teachers Accountants and auditors Miscellaneous managers
Management analysts Education administrators
Chief executives and legislators Lawyers, judges, and other judicial workers
25th-Percentile Annual Wage for Each Occupation
Top 15 Occupations and Wages Program: BA in History
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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Agenda
1. Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
2. Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1. City and Program
2. Programs and Occupations
3. IPEDS: 2015 Update
4. Summary
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Overall Completions
Completions have increased in each of the past four years.
§ Since 2011, completions are up 4.6%.
4.83 4.97 4.98 5.02 5.05
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
National Completions All Programs and Award Levels
Completions in Millions
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Completions by Sector
Public higher-education institutions produce a majority of the graduates nationally.
§ Public institutions are also growing the fastest, up 14% since 2011 versus 5% for private not-for-profits and 3% for proprietary schools.
2,777 2,922 3,000 3,086 3,172
1,118 1,141 1,156 1,174 1,179 681 705 696 751 702
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
National Completions All Programs and Award Levels by Sector
Public Private not-for-profit Proprietary
Completions in Thousands
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Ten Largest Programs
The ten largest programs produced 22% of the total completions in 2015.
§ Liberal Arts (AS) was the largest program, with nearly double the amount of the second largest program.
243
140
125
116
109
89
85
76
74
69
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Liberal Arts and Sciences (AS)
Business Administration (BA)
Registered Nursing (BA)
Psychology, General (BA)
Business Administration (MS)
General Studies (AS)
Registered Nursing (AS)
Cosmetology (Cert)
Biology (BA)
Medical Assistant (Cert)
National Completions Ten Largest Programs Completions
in Thousands
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Ten Fastest Growing Programs
Seven of the ten fastest growing programs are certificate programs.
238%
191%
174%
155%
147%
108%
101%
93%
84%
75%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
Game and Interactive Media Design (Cert)
Intermedia/Multimedia (BA)
Security and Loss Prevention (Cert)
Health Care Facilities Admin./MGT. (Cert)
Computer Systems Analyst (MS)
Health Services Administration (AS)
Heavy Equipment Maintenance Tech. (Cert)
Medium/Heavy Vehicle and Truck Tech. (Cert)
Selling Skills and Sales Operations (Cert)
Operations Management and Supervision (Cert)
National Completions Ten Fastest Growing Programs
2015 YoY % Change
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2015 Completions by Ethnicity
2,808
700 588
275 261 254 117 34 15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
White Hispanic or Latino
Black or African American
Asian Race/ethnicity unknown
Nonresident alien
Two or more races
American Indian or
Alaska Native
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific
Islander
National Completions All Programs and Award Levels by Ethnicity
Completions in Thousands
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Online Completions
Distance education completions have increased 24% since 2013.
§ 2013 was the first year distance education completions were reported. § The volumes of these are not perfect due to schools only being required to report if the program is offered
online, meaning that schools that offer the same program on-campus will show both modalities as distance education.
911
1,057 1,126
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015
Distance Education Completions All Programs and Award Levels
Completions in Thousands
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Agenda
1. Inquiry and Conversion Trends:
1. National
2. Online and On-Campus
3. Degree and Channel
2. Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:
1. City and Program
2. Programs and Occupations
3. IPEDS: 2015 Update
4. Summary
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Key Demand Trends and Observations
The downward trend may have ended in August.
§ Inquiry volumes fell less than 1%. § Branded and online inquiries grew. § Conversions of May inquiries were down 17% YoY, but inquiries seem
to be converting much later than in past years. § Average inquiry prices continued to stay below $45. § Surprisingly, Certificate programs outperformed higher degrees. § Social Media continues to be a strong channel. § Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. ─ Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─ What careers to focus on ─ What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 45
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
[email protected] @Gray_Associates
617.366.2836
617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 46
GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]
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