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dqf e.cpqy.iq canyiyycapacity

dimensionless u P F F ftp.T r.t.L h r Z Mfe

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dare iv Ugt

2 1 is 0 predator extinctri o prey carrying capacity

tsmall carrying capacity

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I Z

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ifstableaseileath exhibited by thesingleLotkaVolterramodel is not robust

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if uardvarebounded thenobtainStablelinityPoincare Bendixen theorem

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c Epidemic model spreadof infection

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I infectedand can transmitR removed covered immune isolated ordead

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deff RS I r infecturrahetsuscop

µ removal rate

dff r SI MI Note dfdt dtfttdfte.co

dRµ pI SAHIH tht Np

compared to LV onlymissing 15 term in pop size

focus on the dynamics of Sand I

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basic reproductionnumber

from sq a datsdt

it 5SH µ

integrate Ift fds f it g thrust

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Max infection at S f aN

µ AINN

or Eso Tro Fo I

f y setIt N SE bus olif SonN then Sf to whadiummunity

for Covid 19 ro 25 SNI Is 40

infectbookofpop to acquireherd immunity

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soloI fo thro

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ways to reduce ro FUNfor ro

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reduce r socialdistancereduce So Cimumanization to 4.25 If 3

as t 2N I o S Sis Sa t Ro N

total infected I tote N S is E Ra

to find Seo use Eq d new

Rddfa rf say Ee ER

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roti SE

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for no 21 RE ballx x t E

HEA Itu IN

X Itf 2 no 1 look

for root i eno 93

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for moderate ro values mum

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main effectof reducing rowithSo D

is to reduce It not I tote flattening curve

A kinetics

earlytime from Atf r SI HIIco A Io rSo µ Ice To

soAt

estate of µ gives est of ro rane g If 5daysforsymptoms todevelop thenµ hee

further if ICtHIo doubles every 2 5daysthen at t 5d.IT odp 4 ero DiM5d zlno

i

ro 3

but estimateof Itt often unreliablemore reliable is Rlt diagnosedandremoved

Eq ARE µ Ict µ N SHIN Soe Feral

DR in

AE MINR Soe

ar

let z RINH Eft So N Io N l S

d hzftg er f IoIN ot

for rot at early the or mildepidemics

2 4 z hS X no2 tf rose

f t do l z t roz 0 z

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to zlauWrro 1 2

peakvalue TIN I l to

oceans at time t Togs

for no It E To tank e Zz

byreducing ro peak tire shifted to later theINN In

lice mitigation

M

NoteddefficienciesoftheStrudellatency period S E I R

age structure Ma

asymptomaticfeelin heterogeneity in µ

Spatial effect