dr. alexey gromov deputy general director institute for energy strategy moscow, russia world energy...
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Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy StrategyMoscow, Russia
World Energy - 2050
The 6TH Civilization Forum within the UN Conference on Sustainable Development RIO+ 20
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012
The goals and tasks of the studyOur goal is comprehensive, long-term and non-inertial forecast of world energy development in the light of revealed today energy and technological trends, the relationship of economy, energy and society, and the likely recurrence of crises before 2050
The probability of breaking up of current trends and profound changes in the global energy mix may have a powerful impact on the Russian economy and energy sector through the situation on foreign markets and energy technologies
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New global challenges and risks
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Comparison with forecasts of other research organisations
Global primary energy consumption by 2050, bln toe
Consensus forecast ofenergy future forecasts
High uncertainty
World consumption of primary energy
19.5-22.5 billion toe in 2050
Proportions of the consumption of coal and gas
from 2.5:1 by Shell to 1:2.5 by IEA
The share of nuclear energy from 3.7% to 15.1%
Reducing the share of oilfrom 35% to 25%
The growth of biomass consumptionfrom 7.4% to 15%
Increase in the share of RESfrom 6% to 17-22%
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Methodology
The scenario is the assemblage point of demographic, economic, technological, political, social, cultural, environmental and energy trendsNot just an extrapolation of existing trends, but analysis of conflicts between them and the assessment of the prospects of their breakup
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0
5
10
15
20
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Oil Gas & nuclear
Electric World & Renewables
Coal
Global primary energy consumption, bln toe
Cyclical crises as a point of scenario bifurcation
Continuation of the pre-crisis growth path
Inhibition of growth and stagnationFact
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Crisis of the 2010th
Crisis of the 1930th
Crisis of the 1970th
Key characteristics of the scenariosin the World Energy - 2050
Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario
Energy-intensive Energy-saving Energy-efficient
Carbon-intensive Renewables and gas Renewables and nuclear
Geopolitical rivalry and economic competition
Global climate and energy policy
The innovative competition and technology
Complex regionalization of economy and energy sector
Slowing globalization Resource globalization and technological globalization
High growth of global primary energy consumption
Slowing growth of global primary energy consumption
Shift from commodities market to the services and technologies market
High oil prices and heyday of oil business
The stagnation of oil business
The sunset of oil business
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Key findings
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By 2030 the peak of global industrialization will be passed
Global primary energy consumption, bln toe
Source: WEO 2010, China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050, Institute of Energy Strategy
Primary energy consumption in China, bln toe
The gap between the western way of development and the possible way of China
Proximity of scenarios due to compensation of GDP growth by
increasing energy efficiency
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Fact OECD
Reference scenario, OECD
Stagnation scenario, OECD
Innovative scenario, OECD
Fact non-OECD
Reference scenario, non-OECD
Stagnation scenario, non-OECD
Innovative scenario, non-OECD
Innovative scenario
Stagnation scenario
Reference scenario
Fact
0 4 8 12 16 20
2010
2050, инерционный сценарий
2050, стагнационный сценарий
2050, инновационный сценарий Нефть
ГазУгольАтомная энергияБиомассаГидроНВИЭ
By 2050 global primary energy consumption will rise 1.2-1.6 times The share of RES in the structure of the global energy mix will reach 10 - 34% The share of oil will drop to 29-16%, an absolute reduction is possible Gas consumption will grow High uncertainty about nuclear power remains
bln toe
Shift in the global energy mix to local fuels
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2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Large hydro
Renewables
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
%
Инерционный сценарий, нефть
Инерционный сценарий, природный газ
Стагнационный сценарий, нефть
Стагнационный сценарий, природный газ
Инновационный сценарий, нефть
Инновационный сценарий, природный газ
World energy sector will shift to resource regionalization and technological globalization
Share of international trade share in global consumption The peak of international trade share in global energy consumption will be passed by 2030
In place of the now dominant resource globalization will come resource regionalization
A fundamental factor in the resource regionalization will be the shift in energy mix to local fuels, including renewables
With the resource regionalization will increase the importance of technological and organizational globalization
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Reference scenario, oil
Reference scenario, gas
Stagnation scenario, oil
Stagnation scenario, gas
Innovative scenario, oil
Innovative scenario, gas
Shift from power energy to smart energy
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The shift from energy commodities marketto the energy services and technologies market
Energy commodities
market2010
Energy service market2030
Energy technology
market2050
The end of oil era is possible…
Потребление нефти, млн т The crisis in oil demand
The peak of world oil consumption will not have been passed up to 2050 ONLY in the reference scenario
In the stagnation scenario, the peak will take place around 2040, and in innovation - around 2030
Revolutionary changes in the transport sector are possible: electric and hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, gas and biogas
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
2010
2050, инерционный сценарий
2050, стагнационный сценарий
2050, инновационный сценарий
ЕС США ОЭСР-другиеРоссия Китай ИндияБлижний Восток Другие РС
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
2010
2050, инерционный сценарий
2050, стагнационный сценарий
2050, инновационный сценарий
Автомобильный транспорт Другие виды транспортаКотельно-печное топливо НефтехимияПрочие сектора
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2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
Motor vehicleElectricity & heatingOthers
Other transportChemicals
2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
EURussiaMiddle East
US ChinaOther non-OECD
Other OECDIndia
Oil consumption, mln t
Will the Golden Age of Gas come?
Rapid growth of gas consumption, especially in the saturated markets of Asia
Share of unconventional gas will grow, including gas hydrates
The integration of regional gas markets through the LNG flows
The evolution of pricing in the gas market
The shift from the "geopolitics of oil" to the "geopolitics of gas”
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2010 2050,инерционный
сценарий
2050,стагнационный
сценарий
2050,инновационный
сценарий
ЕС США ОЭСР-другие Россия
Китай Индия Другие РС
Gas consumption, bcm
Innovative scenario
Stagnation scenario
Reference scenario
EU
China
US
India
Other OECD Russia
Other non-OECD
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2010
2050, инерционный сценарий
2050, стагнационный сценарий
2050, инновационный сценарий
ЕС США ОЭСР-другие Россия Китай Индия Другие РС
World energy sector will move to the «electric world»
*1000 bln kW-h
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2010
2050, инерционный сценарий
2050, стагнационный сценарий
2050, инновационный сценарий
Нефть Газ Уголь Атом Большие гидро Новые ВИЭ
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2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
*1000 bln kW-h
EU US Other OECD Russia China
India Other non-OECD
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Large hydro Renewables
Strategies of key actors in different scenarios
Geopolitical rivalry Three strategies - control over demand (EU), control over supply (OPEC, China, Russia), the control of transit and trade (United States, transit countries)
Different ways of adapting to a new global climate and energy policy The role of resource and geopolitical factors will declineThe role of legal and environmental factors will increase Conflicts in the regulation
Strategies of countries will be determined by different speed of transition to an innovative energy sector World will split into innovative energy zone and traditional fuel energy zoneThe innovative competition
Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy
taking into account the energy agenda of 205016
Thank you for your attention
www.energystrategy.ru
Alexey GROMOVDeputy General Director
Institute of Energy Strategy, Moscow
The Energy of the Future in our Hands