An Example of «Reductio ad Absurdum» Method: Political Participation of Turkish

Youth, if They were French…

Dr. Emre Erdoğan

Percentages 1999 2003 2008

Voting 61,5 52,6 48,0

Being a member to the youth branch of a political party 10,0 8,3 9,0

Being a member to of a political party except the youth branch 6,0 3,5 4,1

Canvassing in a political campaign 6,7 4,1 5,0

Distributing brochures in a political campaign 8,1 5,3 5,3

Petitioning about a local problem 18,0 9,4 8,0

Petitioning about a personal problem 20,6 10,2 7,3

Participating in a political demonstration 12,8 9,4 11,3

Participating in a boycott 7,9 6,4 6,8

Participating in a protest activity conducted over internet 3,2 4,3 7,2

Being a member of a civil society organization 4,3 2,9 4,4

Political Participation Patterns of Turkish Youth: 1998-2008

Percentages 1999 2003 2008

Voting 61,5 52,6 48,0

Being a member to the youth branch of a political party 10,0 8,3 9,0

Being a member to of a political party except the youth branch 6,0 3,5 4,1

Canvassing in a political campaign 6,7 4,1 5,0

Distributing brochures in a political campaign 8,1 5,3 5,3

Petitioning about a local problem 18,0 9,4 8,0

Petitioning about a personal problem 20,6 10,2 7,3

Participating in a political demonstration 12,8 9,4 11,3

Participating in a boycott 7,9 6,4 6,8

Participating in a protest activity conducted over internet 3,2 4,3 7,2

Being a member of a civil society organization 4,3 2,9 4,4

Conventional vs. Unconventional Political Participation

Conventional Political Participation: Source ESS-2008

64%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Lat

via

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Est

on

ia

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Irel

and

Bu

lgar

ia

Ro

man

ia

Isra

el

Slo

vak

ia

Po

rtu

gal

Fra

nce

Slo

ven

ia

No

rway

Uk

rain

e

Ger

man

y

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Tu

rkey

Po

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Cro

atia

Fin

lan

d

Net

her

lan

ds

Sp

ain

Gre

ece

Sw

eden

Den

mar

k

Cy

pru

s

Bel

giu

m

Voted

Conventional Political Participation: Source ESS-2008

12,8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Lat

via

Po

lan

d

Slo

vak

ia

Bu

lgar

ia

Sp

ain

Fra

nce

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Tu

rkey

Net

her

lan

ds

Ger

man

y

Slo

ven

ia

Uk

rain

e

Fin

lan

d

Po

rtu

gal

Bel

giu

m

Sw

eden

Isra

el

Den

mar

k

Irel

and

No

rway

Ro

man

ia

Est

on

ia

Gre

ece

Cy

pru

s

Cro

atia

Member of a Party Worked for a Party

Political Participation in a Comparative Perspective: Trust in Politicians and Parliament

40,8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Uk

rain

e

Lat

via

Po

lan

d

Bu

lgar

ia

Cro

atia

Gre

ece

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c

Po

rtu

gal

Irel

and

Slo

vak

ia

Slo

ven

ia

Isra

el

Ro

man

ia

Est

on

ia

Bel

giu

m

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Fra

nce

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Cy

pru

s

Sp

ain

Ger

man

y

Net

her

lan

ds

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Sw

eden

No

rway

Fin

lan

d

Den

mar

k

Tu

rkey

Trust Parliament Trust in Politicians

BE

BG

CH

CY

CZ

DE

DK

EE

ES

FI

FR GB

GR

HR HU

IE IL

LV

NL

NO

PL

PT

RO RU

SE

SI SK

TR

UA

MDS Positioning

Conventional Political Participation

Phylogenetic Tree Analysis- Geneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithmes

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

RO

RU SK

HU LT

BG

BY

CY

MT SI

LV EE

AM PL

MD PT

NIR ES

NC

Y

GB

GE

TR

UA

NL

CH

HR

CZ IE BA

AT

DE

BE

DK

GR

ME

AL

RS

SE

LU

KO

S

MK

NO FR IT AZ IS FI

Boycotts Lawful Demonstrations

Unconventional Political Participation: Source EVS-2008

0%

20%

40%

BG

BY

CY

EE FI

GE IS LT

LV

NIR S

I

SK

RO

HU

MD

MT

PT

RU SE

AM GB

NL

NO PL

BE

NC

Y IE

ME

LU ES

RS

BA TR

UA

CZ

HR

MK

CH

KO

S

DE

AL

AT

DK FR

AZ IT GR

Unofficial Strikes Occupying Buildings

Unconventional Political Participation: Source EVS-2008

AL

AM AT

AZ

BA

BE BG

BY

CH

CY

CZ

DE

DK

EE

ES

FI

FR

GB

GE

GR

HR

HU

IE

IS

IT

KOS

LT

LU

LV

MD

ME MK

MT

NCY

NIR NL

NO PL

PT

RO

RS

RU

SE SI

SK

TR

UA

-- D

im2

-->

-- Dim1 -->

MDS

Unconventional Political Participation

Phylogenetic Tree Analysis- Geneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithms

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SI

CZ

BG

DE

DK

GR

RS

BA

HR

SK

RO EE

KO

S

AL

CH

HU TR

LU PT

MK

NC

Y IT GB

ME

NIR CY

AT

SE

BE

LT

NL

NO

LV PL FI

MD IE ES

MT

FR IS BY

UA

RU

AZ

AM GE

Tertiary

Education of Respondent

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

TR

PT

BA IT CY

MT

SK

HU

AL

NC

Y

RS IE FR

GR

KO

S

NIR RO PL SI

ME

CZ

CH

AT

ES

HR

BG

MK

LU

DE

BE

GB

RU

MD

DK

NL

UA EE FI

SE IS

AM

NO

LV LT

BY

AZ

GE

Tertiary

Education of Respondent’s Father

«If all countries had same distribution in

R’s and F’s education levels?»

Counterfactual Analysis

If education level of Turkish youth and

their fathers would be same with the

French youth?

Propensity Score Matching:

Definition:

Given X, the probability of receiving the treatment,

depending to several covariates

e (X) = P(T = 1|X)

Treatment: Being a French citizen or not…

Covariates: Respondent and Father’s Education Level

78,40%

3,30%

14,20%

4,10%

0,00%

10,80%

3,80%

56,70%

25,50%

3,20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<= ,20000 ,20001 - ,40000 ,40001 - ,60000 ,60001 - ,80000 ,80001+

Propensity Score Distribution

Turkey France

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Signing a Petition Boycotts Lawful Demonstrations Unofficial Strikes Occupying Buildings

France Turkey Turkey Unadjusted

France vs Turkey: After Weighting

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

<= 1937 1938 -

1945

1946 -

1951

1952 -

1957

1958 -

1963

1964 -

1968

1969 -

1974

1975 -

1980

1981 -

1985

1986+

Respondent Father

Father’s Education Level and Cohorts (Tertiary Education)

AL

AM

AT

AZ

BA

BE

BG

BY

CH

CY

CZ

DE

DK

EE

ES FI

FR

GB

GE

GR

HR

HU

IE

IS

IT

KOS

LT

LU

LV

MD

ME

MK

MT

NCY

NIR

NL

NO

PL

PT

RO

RS

RU

SE

SI

SK TR

UA

MDS

Unconventional Political Participation

Phylogenetic Tree Analysis- Geneologic Similarities: Neighbor-Net and Neighbor Joining algorithms

Thanks and Questions