earned schedule - pmi

8/6/2019 Earned Schedule - PMI

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Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule

an extension to EVM theoryan extension to EVM theory

Walt LipkeSoftware Division

Tinker AFB

[email protected]

(405) 736-3341

E.V.A. - 10Symposium

May 17-20, 2005

London, England

Kym HendersonEducation Director

PMI Sydney, Australia Chapter

[email protected]

61 414 428 537
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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PurposePurpose

To discuss and encourage the application of a new

method of schedule analysis derived from Earned

Value Management, termed Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule.


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OverviewOverview

The Problem with EVM Earned Schedule Concept

Applications

Status & Future

Summary


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The ProblemThe Problem

EVA-10 SymposiumMay 18-20, 2005London, England


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Earned Value BasicsEarned Value Basics

Time

$

BCWS

BCWPSPI =

ACWP

BCWPCPI=

BACBCWS

ACWP

BCWP

SV

CV


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Traditional schedule EVM metrics are good at beginning of project

Show schedule performance trends

But the metrics dont reflect real schedule performance at end Eventually, all budget will be earned as the work is completed,

no matter how late you finish

SPI improves and ends up at 1.00 at end of project

SV improves and ends up at $0 variance at end of project

Traditional schedule metrics lose their predictive ability over thelast third of project

Impacts schedule predictions, EAC predictions

Project managers dont understand scheduleProject managers dont understand scheduleperformance in terms of budgetperformance in terms of budget Like most of us!

So, whats the problem?So, whats the problem?


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Earned ValueEarned Value

Cost and Schedule VariancesCost and Schedule Variances

+$

-$

001 02

CV = BCWP - ACWP SV = BCWP - BCWS

Note: Project completion was scheduled for Jan 02, but completed Apr 02.

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

CV

SV

CV = BCWP - ACWP SV = BCWP - BCWS


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Earned ValueEarned Value

Cost and Schedule Performance IndicesCost and Schedule Performance Indices

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

CPI

SPI

01 02

Note: Project completion was scheduled for Jan 02, but completed Apr 02.

BCWS

BCWPSPI =

ACWP

BCWPCPI =

IN

DEX

VALUE


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Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule

ConceptConcept



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Earned Schedule ConceptEarned Schedule Concept

BCWS

BCWPSPI($) =

ATESSPI(t) =

$

Time

BCWS

BCWP

Projection of BCWPonto BCWS

7AT

BCWS(May)-BCWS(June)

BCWS(May)-BCWP($)5ES

JuneofPortionMayofAllES

=

+=

+=

J J JF M MA A S O N

BCWSBCWPSV($) =

ATESSV(t) =


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Schedule Variance ComparisonSchedule Variance Comparison

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M

-3

-2

-1

0

0

20

40

60

80

100


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

SV($) SV(t)

Early Finish Project

Late Finish Project

$ Mo

$ Mo


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Schedule Performance IndexSchedule Performance Index

ComparisonComparison

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12


0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30


SPI($) SPI(t)

Early Finish Project

Late Finish Project


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Earned Schedule IndicatorsEarned Schedule Indicators

Key PointsKey Points::

ES Indicators constructed to behave in anES Indicators constructed to behave in ananalogous manner to the EVM Cost Indicators,analogous manner to the EVM Cost Indicators,

CV and CPICV and CPI

SV(t) and SPI(t) areSV(t) and SPI(t) are notnot constrained by BCWSconstrained by BCWS

calculation referencecalculation reference

SV(t) and SPI(t) provideSV(t) and SPI(t) provide durationduration basedbasedmeasures of schedule performancemeasures of schedule performance


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SV($) versus SV(t)SV($) versus SV(t)

BCWS

Earned Schedule (ES)

BCWP

Actual TimeActual Time

SV(t)

$

SV

Earned schedule metrics relatework performed to actual time, notwork scheduled

Retain utility over time Only return to 0 or 1.00 whereon time completion achieved

Earned schedule metrics relatework performed to actual time, notwork scheduled

Retain utility over time Only return to 0 or 1.00 whereon time completion achieved


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ApplicationsApplications



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ES Applied to Real Project Data:Late Finish Project: SV($) and SV(t)

Commercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1

Cost and Schedule Variancesat Project Projection: Week Starting 15th July xx

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Elapsed Weeks

Dollars(,000)

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Weeks

CV cum SV cum Target SV & CV SV (t) cum

Stop wk 19

Re-start wk 26Sched wk 20


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Early Finish Project:Early Finish Project:

SV($) and SV(t)SV($) and SV(t)Commerical IT Infrastructure Expansion Project: Phases 2 & 3 Combined

Cost and Schedule Variancesas at Project Completion: Week Starting 9th October xx

-25.0

-15.0

-5.0

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Elapsed Weeks

Dollars($,0

00)

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Weeks

Target SV & CV CV cum SV ($) cum SV (t) cum

Stop wk 16

Re-start wk 19

Sched wk 25

IEAC(t) Predictions usingIEAC(t) Predictions using


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IEAC(t) Predictions usingIEAC(t) Predictions using

ESES Techniques:Techniques: Weekly Plots of IEAC(t)Weekly Plots of IEAC(t)

Late Finish Project ExampleLate Finish Project ExampleCommercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1

Earned Schedule, Independent Estimate At Completion (time) - IEAC(t)

as at Project Completion: Week Starting 15th July xx

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Actual Time (Weeks)

Duration(Weeks)

Planned Schedule Earned Schedule cum IEAC(t) PD/SPI(t)

Stop wk 19 Re-start wk 26

Plan Dur wk 20


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ES vs EVM ComparisonES vs EVM Comparison

Earned Schedule Earned Value

SV(t) and SPI(t) valid forentire project, including early

and late finish

SV($) and SPI($) validitylimited to early finish projects

Duration based predictivecapability analogous toEVMs cost based indicators

Limited prediction capabilityNo predictive capability after

planned completion date

exceededFacilitates Cost ScheduleManagement (using EVM

and ES)

EVM Management focused toCost


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Status & FutureStatus & Future


TiTi B d S h d l MB d S h d l M


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TimeTime--Based Schedule MeasuresBased Schedule Measures

An Emerging EVM PracticeAn Emerging EVM Practice

Inclusion of Emerging PracticeInsert into PMI - EVM PracticeStandard

Dr. John Singley, VP of CPM

Included in Box 3-1 of EVMPractice Standard

Describes basic principles ofEarned Schedule

Provides foundation for further

development of and researchintended to result in EarnedSchedule acceptance as a validextension to EVM

EVM Practice Standard releasedat 2004 IPMC Conference


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Early AdoptersEarly Adopters

Incorporation of ES into EVM Instruction

Several instruction sources now offer ES as part of

EVM Requests for information and ES calculator

Calculator provided freely to > 50 requestors

Tool vendor interest Growing evidence of use on real projectsreal projects

Evidence of use in a number of countries

USA, Australia, Sweden, Belgium Applications across weapons programs, construction,

software development,

Range of project size from very small and short toextremely large and long duration

F U fF U f


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Foreseen Uses ofForeseen Uses of

Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule Enables independent evaluation of schedule

estimates: ETC(t), EAC(t)

Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager .

Facilitates insight into network scheduleperformance

Duration based Schedule indicators Identification of impediments/constraints and potential

future rework

Evaluation of adherence to plan

Improvement to Scheduleand Cost prediction Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager .

Application of direct statistical analysis ofschedule performance


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SummarySummary



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SummarySummary

Derived from EVM data only

Provides time-based schedule indicators

Indicators do not fail for late finish projects

Application is scalable up/down, just as is EVM

Schedule prediction is better than any other EVMmethod presently used

SPI(t) behaves similarly to CPI

IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t) behaves similarly to

IEAC = BAC / CPI

Facilitates bridging EVM to the scheduleFacilitates bridging EVM to the schedule


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ReferencesReferences

1. Schedule is Different, The Measurable News,March & Summer 2003 [Walt Lipke]

2. Earned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value Theory?

A Retrospective Analysis of Real Project Data,The Measurable News, Summer 2003 [Kym Henderson]

3. Further Developments in Earned Schedule,The Measurable News, Spring 2004 [Kym Henderson]

4. Connecting Earned Value to the Schedule,The Measurable News, Winter 2004 [Walt Lipke]

5. Forecasting Project Schedule Completion by Using Earned Value MetricsPresentation by Ing. Stephan Vandevoorde, Senior Project Manager,

Fabricom Airport Systems, Belgium6. Earned Schedule in Action,

Publication pending, [Kym Henderson]

http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/Click Education, then Presentations and Papers for .pdf copies, except (6)
http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/http://sydney.pmichapters-australia.org.au/

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