electrification in france edf update€¦ · industry 26% transport 2% agriculture 3% source:...
TRANSCRIPT
Electrification in France
EDF update
5th annual EPRI-IEA Challenges in Electricity Decarbonization Expert Workshop
Bernard Salha
Chief Technical Officer
Senior Executive Vice President - Head of EDF Research and Development
November 8, 2018
2
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
Pop: 67 million inhabitants (2017)
GPD: 2 290 Md€ (2017)
Electric demand: 442 TWh (2016) ~ 25% of the total energy demand
Emissions: 463 MtCO2Eq. (2016)
French key figures
3
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
French electric demand increased by almost 50% between 1990 and 2016
Residential 36%
Tertiary 33%
Industry 26%
Transport 2%
Agriculture 3%
Source: National energy statistics, French Ministry of Energy (CGDD, 2016)
Between 1990 and 2016, electricity’s share of total energy consumption grew from 20% up to 25%
4
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
Source: Chiffres clés énergie-climat (2014), ADEME
Electrification has been on its way in every sector except in the transport
sector
5
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
“China and Europe are the global regions with the fastest development of EVs” according to IEA Global EV Outlook 2018
Tough EU car CO2 regulation foster European automobile manufacturers to develop EV sales
“Ban of all new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 ” announced by the French Government in 2017
French TSO (RTE) forecasts Between 2 and 8 M EVs/PHEVs in 2030, between 3 and 15 M Evs/PHEVs in 2035 (current total fleet ~ 34
M), Overall electric demand from Evs/PHEVs could exceed 30 TWh in 2035
The development of heavy duty EVs could notably increase this figures
In October 2018, EDF launched its Electric Mobility Plan, aiming to supplying power for 600 000 EVs/PHEVs (30% of market share) in France, the UK, Italy and Belgium, in 2022 ; the total number of EVs could reach 9 M in 2030 and 17 M in 2035 on this geographical perimeter
Electromobility is key for transportation sector deep decarbonization
6
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
Electrification of dwellings is particularily high in France
The electrification of thermal uses of electricity in the French residential sector is among the highest in the world
Space heating: electricity as main energy for 36% of dwellings • 30% with direct electric heating (“Joule”) • 6% with heat pumps (“PAC”)
Water heating: electricity as main energy for 50% of dwellings • Electric water tanks: 47% (with 37% are controlled) • Heat Pumps: 3%
Cooking: electricity is the only cooking energy for 41% of households (+ 24% in dual energy, gas and LPG) 65%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Gemany UK Italy Belgium France
% of Households heated with electricity (source: EDF R&D)
% Joule % PAC
7
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
Electrification of buildings driven by the development of heat pumps
ADEME (French public Environment and Energy Management Agency) scenario statement : • Heat pumps for space heating installed in 20% of dwellings in 2035 and 50% of dwellings in
2050 • Heat pump water heating in 10% of dwellings in 2035 and 20% of dwellings in 2050
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Housing heated by heat pumps (France, EDF R&D calculations based on AFPAC and BATIETUDES data)
air/water water/water air/air hybrides
Total Number of Dwellings in France is :
28.6 millions in 2016
8
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
Electrifying the industrial sector ≈ electrifying heating supply
Electrifying industry is a requirement to meet climate targets Three main routes:
- Recovery of waste heat (e.g., high temperature heat pumps) 10 TWh
- Raise of recycling (e.g. electric steel)
- Innovative green techs (e.g. low temperature iron electrolysis instead of blast furnace for steel production)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Low temp. HP Medium temp. HP High temp. HP TOTAL
Impact of maximum heat pump dissemination potential in french industry on energy consumption (TWh)
Fuels & steam Electricity
Source: EDF R&D analyses from CEREN data (2014)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Other uses Heating MechanicalOperations
Cooling
Energies and uses in french industry (TWh)
Electricity
Fuels & steam
9
"Ce document est la propriété d'EDF - Toute diffusion externe du présent document ou des informations qu'il contient est interdite".
French Authorities rely on electrification to reach French Climate targets
Electrification is a must for all sectors (transportation, buildings, industry, agriculture)
« Demand is the most structuring input for the framing of the future electricity system »
Perspectives
