elliott wave and fibonacci analysis on 01062009

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1/6/20091:14 PM Pacific Assuming the double zigzag is completed, the question now is what follows a completed double zigzag? (It is interesting that the turn was at 943 exactly, not bad for pseudoscience.) The answer is a turn down. But is it THE turn down, or a retracement before the zigzag extends higher? I believe it is a retracement before we extend higher based on my longer-term analysis in my 2009 forecast . There are two primary options for a retracement before heading higher. Price either retraces the A-B-C zigzag up from X, or it retraces the entire W-X-Y zigzag up from the bottom. The most common retracement level for a zigzag is a 50% retracement, and only slightly less common is a .618 retracement. Looking at the two Fibonacci

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Elliott wave zigzag, double zigzag, Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, and corrective combination are profiled in this evening report by TheMarketDetective.com

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Page 1: Elliott wave and Fibonacci analysis on 01062009

1/6/20091:14 PM Pacific

Assuming the double zigzag is completed, the question now is what follows a completed double zigzag? (It is interesting that the turn was at 943 exactly, not bad for pseudoscience.)

The answer is a turn down. But is it THE turn down, or a retracement before the zigzag extends higher? I believe it is a retracement before we extend higher based on my longer-term analysis in my 2009 forecast. There are two primary options for a retracement before heading higher. Price either retraces the A-B-C zigzag up from X, or it retraces the entire W-X-Y zigzag up from the bottom. The most common retracement level for a zigzag is a 50% retracement, and only slightly less common is a .618 retracement. Looking at the two Fibonacci

Page 2: Elliott wave and Fibonacci analysis on 01062009

1/6/20091:14 PM Pacific

retracement columns below, that translates to 885/872 if we retrace only the move up from X, and 841/817, if we retrace the entire move. Looking at all of the Fibonacci retracement levels up from X (inside column), all of them line up with natural support levels and will likely result in bounces along a descending price path. I see fewer instances with the Fibonacci retracement levels of the entire move off the bottom, however, the .382 and .618 levels stand out as significant. The most interesting natural support levels that coincide with Fibonacci levels are 900 then 875. 875 also intersects the rising trend line and coincides with the inside .618 retracement level. That would require a fairly rapid descent. Further up the trend line is the 885 support level that could indicate a more gradual descent.

I am going to pick 885 for a hypothetical (yet probable) projection and thesis, without regard to time, because it is the perfect pivot for a third and final zigzag that symmetrically aligns with the higher level analysis and price target identified in my 2009 forecast. It also aligns with the Can Google “tell” Us Again forecast from yesterday.

Page 3: Elliott wave and Fibonacci analysis on 01062009

1/6/20091:14 PM Pacific

As price descends I will be able to make projections based on wave counts and Fibonacci extensions down. At that point if I can identify a Fibonacci confluence it will provide a higher probable support level. 960 is still a possible short-term target if we don’t take out 915 before going higher. Going higher from this level requires adjustments to the greater thesis. Did you notice where GOOGLE stopped today? TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.