1/12/200910:28 PM pacific

The revised target from last night was battered and breached but it held and launched a small recovery rally into the close. The ratios and wave count look good for the turn to stick here. Even the bottom Bollinger band coincided with the Fibonacci confluence and there is also a bullish hammer candlestick reversal pattern.

The chart below zooms in to show the probable completion of a 5-3-5 (a-b-c) move down with very good ratios which supports the higher level chart and thesis. The far right column of Fibonacci numbers are the retracement levels and likely levels of resistance as price works its way back up. If 901-910 is cleared bias shifts to a prolonged rally and probable new high. Wave count interpretations may provide additional clues as the different retracement levels are approached.

1/12/200910:28 PM pacific

If the preferred thesis goes terribly wrong and price turns down hard and takes out today’s low, 850 is a probable bounce but the next target is 830. TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.