energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates for the period up to 2050.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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@
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
2011 Edition
Energy,Electricity and
Nuclear PowerEstimates
for the Period
up to 2050
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REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
energy, electricity andnuclear power estimatesfor the period up to 2050
2011 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2011
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ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND
NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES
FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050
IAEA-RDS-1/31
ISBN 9789201194107
ISSN 10112642
printed by te IAEA in AstriaAgst 2011
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contents
Introdction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Groing of contries and areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1. Nclear oer reactors in te orld
(end of 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figre 1. Nclear sare of total electricity
generation in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Table 2. Nmber of contries it nclear oer reactors in oeration or
nder constrction (end of 2010) . . . . . . . . . 15
Table 3. Estimates of total and nclear
electrical generating caacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figre 2. Total and nclear electrical generating
caacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generation
and contribtion by nclear oer . . . . . . . 21
Figre 3. percentage of electricity slied
by nclear oer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Table 5. Estimates of total energy reqirement
(EJ), ercentage sed for electricity generation, and ercentage slied
by nclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figre 4. Estimates of total energy reqirement . . . . . 26
Table 6. Total energy reqirement (EJ) by tye
of fel in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Figre 5. Total energy reqirement by fel tye in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Figre 6. Breakdon of orld total energy
reqirement dring te eriod
19702010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Table 7. Fel sares (%) of total energy
reqirement in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Table 8. Fel se (EJ) for electricity
generation by tye of fel in 2010 . . . . . . . . 36
Table 9. percentage contribtion of eac
fel tye to electricity generation
in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Table 10. Estimates of olation grot by region . . 39
Figre 7. polation estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity
reqirement er caita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
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Figre 8. Total energy reqirement er caita . . . . . . . 44
Figre 9. Total electricity reqirement er caita . . . . . 46
Table 12. Average annal grot rates dring te
eriod 20002010 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Figre 10. Average annal grot rates dring te
eriod 20002010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Table 13. Estimates of average annal
grot rates dring te eriod
20102030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
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5
i
Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annal
blication crrently in its tirty rst edition containingestimates of energy, electricity and nclear oer trends
to te year 2050.
RDS-1 starts it a smmary of te sitation of nclear
oer in IAEA Member States as of te end of 2010. Te
data on nclear oer resented in Tables 1 and 2 are
based on actal statistical data collected by te IAEAspoer Reactor Information System (pRIS). hoever,
energy and electricity data for 2010 are estimated, as
te latest information available from te united Nations
Deartment of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2008
only. polation data originate from te world polation
prosects (2010 revision), blised by te polationDivision of te united Nations Deartment of Economic
and Social Affairs. Te 2010 vales again are estimates.
As in revios editions, rojections of ftre energy
and electricity demand and te role of nclear oer
are resented as lo and ig estimates encomassing
te inerent ncertainties involved in rojecting trends.Te RDS-1 estimates sold be vieed as very general
grot trends ose validity mst be constantly sbjected
to critical revie.
Beginning it te 30t edition of tis blication,
oever, te end-oint of te estimates as extended
to te year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond
2030 as been romted by te interest exressed by
nmeros Member States crrently itot nclear
oer in adding nclear energy to teir ftre national
energy sly mixes. Given te extensive lead times in
lanning and imlementing nclear oer rogrammes,
a fair sare of tese are likely to reslt in actal lantcommissioning and grid connection after 2030.
Many international, national and rivate organizations
rotinely engage in energy demand and sly rojections,
inclding nclear oer. Tese rojections are based
on a mltitde of different assmtions and aggregating
rocedres, ic make a straigtforard comarison
and syntesis very difclt. Te basic differences refer to
sc fndamental int assmtions as:
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6
Economic grot;
Correlation of economic grot and energy se;
Tecnology erformance and costs;
Energy resorce availability and ftre fel rices;
Energy olicy and ysical, environmental and
economic constraints.
Te rojections resented in tis blication are based
on a comromise beteen:
National rojections slied by eac contry for a
recent OECD/NEA stdy; Indicators of develoment blised by te world
Bank in its world Develoment Indicators;
Global and regional energy, electricity and nclear
oer rojections made by oter international
organizations.
More secically, te estimates of ftre nclear
generating caacity resented in Table 3 are derived
from a contry by contry bottom aroac. Tey are
establised by a gro of exerts articiating eac year
in te IAEAs consltancy on Nclear Caacity projections
and based on a revie of nclear oer rojects and
rogrammes in Member States. Te exerts consider all
te oerating reactors, ossible license reneals, lanned
stdons and lasible constrction rojects foreseen
for te next several decades. Tey bild te rojections
roject by roject by assessing te lasibility of eac in
ligt of, rst, te lo rojections assmtions and, second,
te ig rojections assmtions.
Te lo and ig estimates reect contrasting, bt not
extreme, nderlying assmtions on te different driving
factors tat ave an imact on nclear oer deloyment.
Tese factors, and te ays tey migt evolve, vary from
contry to contry. Te estimates resented rovide a
lasible range of nclear caacity grot by region and
orldide. Tey are not intended to be redictive nor to
reect te ole range of ossible ftres from te loest
to te igest feasible.
Te lo case reresents exectations abot te ftre
if crrent trends contined and tere ere fe canges inolicies affecting nclear oer oter tan tose already in
te ieline. Tis case as exlicitly designed to rodce a
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7
conservative bt lasible set of rojections. Additionally,
te lo case did not atomatically assme tat targets
for nclear oer grot in a articlar contry old
necessarily be acieved. Tese assmtions are relaxed
in te ig case.
Te ig case rojections are mc more otimistic,
bt still lasible and tecnically feasible. Te ig case
assmes tat te crrent nancial and economic crises ill
be overcome in te not so distant ftre and ast rates of
economic grot and electricity demand, esecially in teFar East, old essentially resme. In addition, te ig
case assmes te imlementation of stringent olicies
globally targeted at mitigating climate cange.
Develoing te 2011 nclear oer rojections osed
a considerable callenge. First te nancial and economic
crises tat started in 2008 ave not been overcome inmany regions. Second, te Fksima-Daiici accident
and its likely imact on ftre nclear oer develoment
is difclt to foresee. Te accident as a tragedy for
te eole affected and seriosly ndermined blic
condence in te safety of nclear oer. A nmber of
contries annonced revies of teir rogrammes, sometook stes toard asing ot nclear oer entirely, and
oters re-emasized teir exansion lans. Tird, a ne
international environmental agreement on te reglation
of greenose gases relacing te Kyoto protocol
tat old make te climate benets of nclear energy
nancially visible to investors is still being negotiated.Regardless of tese ncertainties, te contined
grot in bot te 2011 lo and ig rojections sggests
tat te reasons for increased interest in nclear oer
before te accident ave not canged by te accident:
(a) energy and electricity demand grot contine to be
driven by olation grot and economic develoment;(b) concerns contine to ersist abot secrity of energy
sly and ig and volatile fossil fel rices; and (c) te
qest for stable electricity generating costs is still a major
incentive for blic and rivate sector interest in nclear
oer. Moreover, te overall erformance and safety of
nclear oer lants contine to be good. All tis ointsto contined strong grot of nclear oer in te longer
term.
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8
e u
1 Mw(e) = 106atts (electrical)
1 Gw(e) = 1000 Mw(e) = 109atts (electrical)
1 GJ = 1 gigajole = 109joles
1 EJ = 1 exajole = 1018joles
1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil eqivalent (Mtoe)
1 Tw = 1 teraatt-or = 109
kw = 3.6
103
EJ
Te 2011 rojections faced te comlex need to
balance te factors tat ave traditionally driven, and
contine to drive, te ftre demand for nclear oer
it te factors tat otentially cold adversely affect
nclear oer exansion. Te reslt of tis balancing
act sos te orlds installed nclear oer caacity
exanding from 375 gigaatts (Gw(e)) today to
501 Gw(e) in 2030, i.e. a decrease of 8% comared it
last years's rojection. In te dated ig rojection, it
gros to 746 Gw(e) in 2030, don by 7% from last year.
Te data on electricity rodced by nclear oer lants
is converted to joles based on te average efciency of a
nclear oer lant, i.e. 33%; data on electricity generated
by geotermal eat are converted to joles based on te
average efciency of a geotermal oer lant, i.e. 10%.
Te conversion to joles of electricity generated byydrooer or by oter non-termal sorces sc as
ind, tide and solar is based on te energy content of te
electricity generated (te eqivalent of assming 100%
efciency).
Te total energy reqirement as been calclated by
smming te rimary energy rodction, te net energytrade mins canges in international bnkers and
domestic stocks.
Te vales son in Table 9 refer to rimary energy
sed for te generation of electricity. Oing to differences
in conversion efciencies, te ercentage vales
are different from te sares of electricity generationresented in Tables 1 and 5.
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9
North Am eri caCana da* United States of A m er i ca*
L a tin Am eri caA nguil la H aiti*
A ntigua and B ar bud a Hondura s*A rgentin a* Jam aica*
A ruba Martini que
B aha m as Mexi co *
B arba dos Mo nts errat
B elize N eth erla nd s A ntill es
B erm uda N ic ara gua*
B olivia * P a nam a*B razil* P ar agu ay*
Ca ym an Islands P er u*
C hi le* P ue rto R ic o
Colo m bi a* S .Georgia & S.S andwich Islands
C os ta Rica* Sa int K itt s a nd Ne vis
Cuba * Sai nt L ucia
Do m i ni ca S ain t P ie rre an d Mi qu elon
Dom i n ican Re pub lic* S ain t Vince nt & th e Gr en adin es
E cuad or* S urinam e
E l S alvador* Trinid ad and Tobago
Grenada Turk s an d Ca icos Isla nd s
Guadelo upe Ur ugu ay*
Guatem ala* Venezuela*
Gu yana
W e s te rn E uro p eA ndorr a L iecht en stein *
A ustria* L uxem bourg*
Belgiu m * Mal ta *
Cyprus* Monac o*
Denm a rk * Nethe rlan ds*
Finland * N orway*
Franc e* P ortugal *
Germ any* S an Ma rin o
Gibralta r Spa in*
Greece* Sv alb ard and Ja n Maye n Isla nds
Greenland S weden*
Holy S ee* S witze r land *
Ic eland * Tu rk ey*Irel and* United K ing do m *
It aly*
GR OUP I N G O F C OUN TRI ES AND ARE AS
The c o un tri es a nd g e og raph ic a l are as
i n clu ded i n eac h gro upi n g are l i s te d b el o w
(I A E A Me m b er S ta t es are d en ot ed b y an a s t eri s k )
*
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10
AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*
Angola* Mali*
Benin* Mauritania*
Botswana* Mauritius*
Burkina Faso* Mayotte
Burundii* Morocco*
Cameroon* Mozambique*
Cape Verdee* Namibia*
Central Africa n Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*
Comoros Reunion
Congoo* Rwanda*
Cte d'Ivoire* Saint Helena
Democratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and Principe
Djibouti Senegal*
Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*
Eritrea* Somalia
Ethiopia* South Africa*
Gabon* Sudan*
Gambia Swaziland
Ghana* Togo
Guinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*
Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*
Lesotho* Western Sahara
Liberia* Zambia*
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*
Madagascar*
Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*
Armenia* Montenegro*
Poland*Azerbaijan*
Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*
Russian Federation*Bulgaria*
Serbia*Croatia*
Slovakia*Czech Republic*
Slovenia*Estonia*
Tajikistan*Georgia*
The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*
Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*
Uzbekistan*Latvia*
*
*
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M i dd l e E a st an d S o uth Asi a
A f ghanistan * K uwa it *
B ah rain* L ebanon*
B anglade sh* N epal*
Bh utan Om an*British Indian Ocean Territory P ak is ta n*
Coc os (Ke elin g) Isl ands Qatar *
Fre nch Southern Territo ries S au di A ra bia *
Heard Is lan d& Mc Donal d Is lands Sri L an k a*
Indi a* S yrian A rab Re pub lic*
Ir an , Isla m ic Repu bl i c o f* T.T.U.T.J of T. P a l es tinia n A .
Iraq* United A rab E m ir at es *Is rael* Yem en*
Jordan *
S o uth E as t Asi a and th e P acifi c
A ustral ia* Northern Mari ana Is lands
B runei D ar uss alam P alau*
Cook Is land s P apu a New Guine a*Fi ji P itc airn Isla nd s
Ind one sia* S am oa
K irib at i S ingapore*
Malays ia * S o lo m on Is lan ds
Maldive s T hailand*
Marshal l Is lands* Timo r L es te
Mi crones ia (Fe d. St ates of) Tok el au
Myanm ar* Tuva lu
New Zea la nd* U S Minor Outlyin g Isla nd s
Niue Va nua tu
Nor fo lk Is la nds W allis and Futu na Isl ands
Fa r E as t
Ca m bo dia* Ma cau, Ch i na
China * Mong olia *
De m . P.R. of K o rea P h ilipp ines *
Ja pan* Taiwan , Ch ina
K ore a, R epublic of* Vietnam *
L a o P.D. R.
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TABLE2.
NUMBEROFCOUNT
RIESWITHNUCLEAR
POWERREACTORS
INOPERATIONORUNDERCONSTRUCTIO
N(endof2010)
CountryGroup
NumberofCountriesinG
roup
Countries
withNuclearPowerRe
actors
InOperation
Long-termSh
utDown
UnderConstruction(1)
Total(2)
NorthAme
rica
2
2
1
1
2
LatinAmerica
45
3
2
3
WesternEurope
29
9
2
9
EasternEu
rope
27
9
4
9
Africa
57
1
1
MiddleEas
tandSouthAsia
25
2
3
3
SouthEast
AsiaandthePacific
27
FarEast
11
3
1
3
3
WorldTota
l
223
29
2
15
30
Notes
Notes
(1)Mayincl
udecountrieshaingreact
orsalreadyinoperation.
(1)Mayincl
udecountrieshaingreact
orsalreadyinoperation.
(2)Totalnu
mberofcountriesineach
groupthathaenuclearpowerreactorsinoperation
orunderconstruction.
(2)Totalnu
mberofcountriesineach
groupthathaenuclearpowerreactorsinoperation
orunderconstruction.
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17
%
%
%
%
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18
GW(e)
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19
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21
2010
2020
%
%
%
%
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22
Percentage
(%)
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23
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25
2010
2
020
2030
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26
EJ
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27
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29
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30
EJ
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32
EJ
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35/60
33
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35
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TABLE8.
FUELUSE(EJ)FOR
ELECTRICITYGENER
ATIONBYTYPEOFFUELIN2010
CountryGroup
Thermal(a)
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables(b)
Total
NorthAmerica
30.53
2.36
9.74
0.91
43.55
LatinAmerica
5.57
2.60
0.29
0.39
8.85
WesternEurope
15.57
2.08
8.85
0.99
27.49
EasternEurope
19.16
1.11
3.61
0.03
23.91
Africa
5.99
0.37
0.14
0.05
6.55
MiddleEast
andSouthAsia
21.48
0.61
0.25
>
0.
01
22.34
22.34
SouthEastA
siaandthePacific
6.96
0.26
0.49
7.70
FarEast
47.67
3.17
5.81
0.57
57.22
WorldTotal
152.93
12.56
28.69
3.43
197.61
Notes
Notes
(a)Thecol
umnheaded
Thermal
sth
etotalorsoldsl
uds
asesb
omassandwaste.
(a)Thecol
umnheaded
Thermal
sth
etotalorsoldsl
uds
asesb
omassandwaste.
(b)Thecol
umnheaded
Renewables
ncludes
eothermalw
nd
solarandtdeenery.
(b)Thecol
umnheaded
Renewables
ncludes
eothermalw
nd
solarandtdeenery.
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37
TABLE9.PERCENTAGECONT
RIBUTIONOFEACH
FUELTYPETO
ELEC
TRICITYGENERATIONIN2010
CountryGroup
Thermal(a)
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables(b)
Total
NorthAmerica
65.01
14.00
19.04
1.95
100.00
LatinAmeri
ca
36.90
59.96
2.17
0.97
100.00
WesternEurope
49.01
18.90
26.61
5.48
100.00
EasternEurope
64.79
16.89
18.16
0.15
100.00
Africa
81.42
16.16
2.01
0.42
100.00
MiddleEast
andSouthAsia
88.33
10.26
1.39
0.02
100.00
SouthEastAsiaandthePacific
87.89
9.52
2.59
100.00
FarEast
74.67
15.35
9.30
0.67
100.00
WorldTotal
66.98
17.85
13.46
1.71
100.00
Notes
Notes
(a)Thecol
umnheaded
Thermal
sthetotalorsoldsl
uds
asesbomassandwaste.
(a)Thecol
umnheaded
Thermal
sthetotalorsoldsl
uds
asesbomassandwaste.
(b)Thecolumnheaded
Renewables
ncludes
eothermalw
nd
solarandtdeenery.
(b)Thecolumnheaded
Renewables
ncludes
eothermalw
nd
solarandtdeenery.
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39
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40
MillionsofInhabitants
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41
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43
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44
5
GJ
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45
5
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46
5
4
6
8
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47
5
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49
TABLE12.
AVERAGEANNUAL
GROWTHRATESDU
RINGTHEPERIOD20002010(%)
C
ountryGroup
Population
TotalEnergy
TotalElectricity
NuclearEner
gy
NuclearCapacity
NorthAmerica
1.0
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.6
LatinAmeri
ca
1.3
2.7
2.1
2.9
-0.1
WesternEurope
0.6
0.2
0.8
-0.4
-0.3
EasternEurope
-0.4
1.0
1.3
1.9
0.4
Africa
2.7
2.7
4.5
-0.1
0.0
MiddleEast
andSouthAsia
2.0
5.6
4.6
4.2
4.7
SouthEastAsiaandthePacific
1.5
4.0
3.3
FarEast
0.7
5.3
7.2
1.5
2.4
WorldAvera
ge
1.3
2.4
2.9
0.7
0.7
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50
3
4
5
6
7
8
AnnualGrowthRate(%
)
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51
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53
TABLE13
.ESTIMATESOFAVERAGEANNUALGRO
WTHRATESDURING
THEPERIOD2010
2030(%)
CountryGroup
Population
TotalEnergy
TotalElectric
ity
NuclearEnergy
Nuclear
Capacity
NorthAmerica
0.8
0.0
1.
8
0.6
0.7
-0.1
1.4
-0.1
1.3
LatinAmerica
0.9
3.2
5.
0
5.0
7.2
5.0
8.9
3.9
7.7
WesternEurope
0.3
1.1
1.
6
1.4
2.3
-1.0
1.6
-1.9
0.7
EasternEurope
-0.1
0.7
1.
7
1.9
2.9
3.4
4.9
2.8
4.2
Africa
2.1
3.0
6.
0
7.0
9.0
5.7
12.1
5.2
11.5
MiddleEast
andSouthAsia
1.2
4.1
5.
0
5.6
6.8
12.4
15.6
9.9
13.0
SouthEastA
siaandthePacific
0.9
2.3
2.
6
4.0
4.7
FarEast
0.3
2.4
3.
7
2.4
3.9
5.0
6.9
4.1
5.9
WorldAvera
ge
0.9
2.0
3.
3
2.7
3.9
2.0
4.1
1.5
3.5
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@No. 22
Where to order IAEA publicationsIn the following countriesIAEA publications may be purchased from the sources
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