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    @

    REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1

    2011 Edition

    Energy,Electricity and

    Nuclear PowerEstimates

    for the Period

    up to 2050

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    REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1

    energy, electricity andnuclear power estimatesfor the period up to 2050

    2011 Edition

    INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2011

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    ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND

    NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES

    FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050

    IAEA-RDS-1/31

    ISBN 9789201194107

    ISSN 10112642

    printed by te IAEA in AstriaAgst 2011

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    contents

    Introdction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    Groing of contries and areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

    Table 1. Nclear oer reactors in te orld

    (end of 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

    Figre 1. Nclear sare of total electricity

    generation in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

    Table 2. Nmber of contries it nclear oer reactors in oeration or

    nder constrction (end of 2010) . . . . . . . . . 15

    Table 3. Estimates of total and nclear

    electrical generating caacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

    Figre 2. Total and nclear electrical generating

    caacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generation

    and contribtion by nclear oer . . . . . . . 21

    Figre 3. percentage of electricity slied

    by nclear oer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

    Table 5. Estimates of total energy reqirement

    (EJ), ercentage sed for electricity generation, and ercentage slied

    by nclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

    Figre 4. Estimates of total energy reqirement . . . . . 26

    Table 6. Total energy reqirement (EJ) by tye

    of fel in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

    Figre 5. Total energy reqirement by fel tye in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

    Figre 6. Breakdon of orld total energy

    reqirement dring te eriod

    19702010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

    Table 7. Fel sares (%) of total energy

    reqirement in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

    Table 8. Fel se (EJ) for electricity

    generation by tye of fel in 2010 . . . . . . . . 36

    Table 9. percentage contribtion of eac

    fel tye to electricity generation

    in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

    Table 10. Estimates of olation grot by region . . 39

    Figre 7. polation estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

    Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity

    reqirement er caita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

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    Figre 8. Total energy reqirement er caita . . . . . . . 44

    Figre 9. Total electricity reqirement er caita . . . . . 46

    Table 12. Average annal grot rates dring te

    eriod 20002010 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

    Figre 10. Average annal grot rates dring te

    eriod 20002010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

    Table 13. Estimates of average annal

    grot rates dring te eriod

    20102030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

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    5

    i

    Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annal

    blication crrently in its tirty rst edition containingestimates of energy, electricity and nclear oer trends

    to te year 2050.

    RDS-1 starts it a smmary of te sitation of nclear

    oer in IAEA Member States as of te end of 2010. Te

    data on nclear oer resented in Tables 1 and 2 are

    based on actal statistical data collected by te IAEAspoer Reactor Information System (pRIS). hoever,

    energy and electricity data for 2010 are estimated, as

    te latest information available from te united Nations

    Deartment of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2008

    only. polation data originate from te world polation

    prosects (2010 revision), blised by te polationDivision of te united Nations Deartment of Economic

    and Social Affairs. Te 2010 vales again are estimates.

    As in revios editions, rojections of ftre energy

    and electricity demand and te role of nclear oer

    are resented as lo and ig estimates encomassing

    te inerent ncertainties involved in rojecting trends.Te RDS-1 estimates sold be vieed as very general

    grot trends ose validity mst be constantly sbjected

    to critical revie.

    Beginning it te 30t edition of tis blication,

    oever, te end-oint of te estimates as extended

    to te year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond

    2030 as been romted by te interest exressed by

    nmeros Member States crrently itot nclear

    oer in adding nclear energy to teir ftre national

    energy sly mixes. Given te extensive lead times in

    lanning and imlementing nclear oer rogrammes,

    a fair sare of tese are likely to reslt in actal lantcommissioning and grid connection after 2030.

    Many international, national and rivate organizations

    rotinely engage in energy demand and sly rojections,

    inclding nclear oer. Tese rojections are based

    on a mltitde of different assmtions and aggregating

    rocedres, ic make a straigtforard comarison

    and syntesis very difclt. Te basic differences refer to

    sc fndamental int assmtions as:

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    6

    Economic grot;

    Correlation of economic grot and energy se;

    Tecnology erformance and costs;

    Energy resorce availability and ftre fel rices;

    Energy olicy and ysical, environmental and

    economic constraints.

    Te rojections resented in tis blication are based

    on a comromise beteen:

    National rojections slied by eac contry for a

    recent OECD/NEA stdy; Indicators of develoment blised by te world

    Bank in its world Develoment Indicators;

    Global and regional energy, electricity and nclear

    oer rojections made by oter international

    organizations.

    More secically, te estimates of ftre nclear

    generating caacity resented in Table 3 are derived

    from a contry by contry bottom aroac. Tey are

    establised by a gro of exerts articiating eac year

    in te IAEAs consltancy on Nclear Caacity projections

    and based on a revie of nclear oer rojects and

    rogrammes in Member States. Te exerts consider all

    te oerating reactors, ossible license reneals, lanned

    stdons and lasible constrction rojects foreseen

    for te next several decades. Tey bild te rojections

    roject by roject by assessing te lasibility of eac in

    ligt of, rst, te lo rojections assmtions and, second,

    te ig rojections assmtions.

    Te lo and ig estimates reect contrasting, bt not

    extreme, nderlying assmtions on te different driving

    factors tat ave an imact on nclear oer deloyment.

    Tese factors, and te ays tey migt evolve, vary from

    contry to contry. Te estimates resented rovide a

    lasible range of nclear caacity grot by region and

    orldide. Tey are not intended to be redictive nor to

    reect te ole range of ossible ftres from te loest

    to te igest feasible.

    Te lo case reresents exectations abot te ftre

    if crrent trends contined and tere ere fe canges inolicies affecting nclear oer oter tan tose already in

    te ieline. Tis case as exlicitly designed to rodce a

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    7

    conservative bt lasible set of rojections. Additionally,

    te lo case did not atomatically assme tat targets

    for nclear oer grot in a articlar contry old

    necessarily be acieved. Tese assmtions are relaxed

    in te ig case.

    Te ig case rojections are mc more otimistic,

    bt still lasible and tecnically feasible. Te ig case

    assmes tat te crrent nancial and economic crises ill

    be overcome in te not so distant ftre and ast rates of

    economic grot and electricity demand, esecially in teFar East, old essentially resme. In addition, te ig

    case assmes te imlementation of stringent olicies

    globally targeted at mitigating climate cange.

    Develoing te 2011 nclear oer rojections osed

    a considerable callenge. First te nancial and economic

    crises tat started in 2008 ave not been overcome inmany regions. Second, te Fksima-Daiici accident

    and its likely imact on ftre nclear oer develoment

    is difclt to foresee. Te accident as a tragedy for

    te eole affected and seriosly ndermined blic

    condence in te safety of nclear oer. A nmber of

    contries annonced revies of teir rogrammes, sometook stes toard asing ot nclear oer entirely, and

    oters re-emasized teir exansion lans. Tird, a ne

    international environmental agreement on te reglation

    of greenose gases relacing te Kyoto protocol

    tat old make te climate benets of nclear energy

    nancially visible to investors is still being negotiated.Regardless of tese ncertainties, te contined

    grot in bot te 2011 lo and ig rojections sggests

    tat te reasons for increased interest in nclear oer

    before te accident ave not canged by te accident:

    (a) energy and electricity demand grot contine to be

    driven by olation grot and economic develoment;(b) concerns contine to ersist abot secrity of energy

    sly and ig and volatile fossil fel rices; and (c) te

    qest for stable electricity generating costs is still a major

    incentive for blic and rivate sector interest in nclear

    oer. Moreover, te overall erformance and safety of

    nclear oer lants contine to be good. All tis ointsto contined strong grot of nclear oer in te longer

    term.

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    8

    e u

    1 Mw(e) = 106atts (electrical)

    1 Gw(e) = 1000 Mw(e) = 109atts (electrical)

    1 GJ = 1 gigajole = 109joles

    1 EJ = 1 exajole = 1018joles

    1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil eqivalent (Mtoe)

    1 Tw = 1 teraatt-or = 109

    kw = 3.6

    103

    EJ

    Te 2011 rojections faced te comlex need to

    balance te factors tat ave traditionally driven, and

    contine to drive, te ftre demand for nclear oer

    it te factors tat otentially cold adversely affect

    nclear oer exansion. Te reslt of tis balancing

    act sos te orlds installed nclear oer caacity

    exanding from 375 gigaatts (Gw(e)) today to

    501 Gw(e) in 2030, i.e. a decrease of 8% comared it

    last years's rojection. In te dated ig rojection, it

    gros to 746 Gw(e) in 2030, don by 7% from last year.

    Te data on electricity rodced by nclear oer lants

    is converted to joles based on te average efciency of a

    nclear oer lant, i.e. 33%; data on electricity generated

    by geotermal eat are converted to joles based on te

    average efciency of a geotermal oer lant, i.e. 10%.

    Te conversion to joles of electricity generated byydrooer or by oter non-termal sorces sc as

    ind, tide and solar is based on te energy content of te

    electricity generated (te eqivalent of assming 100%

    efciency).

    Te total energy reqirement as been calclated by

    smming te rimary energy rodction, te net energytrade mins canges in international bnkers and

    domestic stocks.

    Te vales son in Table 9 refer to rimary energy

    sed for te generation of electricity. Oing to differences

    in conversion efciencies, te ercentage vales

    are different from te sares of electricity generationresented in Tables 1 and 5.

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    9

    North Am eri caCana da* United States of A m er i ca*

    L a tin Am eri caA nguil la H aiti*

    A ntigua and B ar bud a Hondura s*A rgentin a* Jam aica*

    A ruba Martini que

    B aha m as Mexi co *

    B arba dos Mo nts errat

    B elize N eth erla nd s A ntill es

    B erm uda N ic ara gua*

    B olivia * P a nam a*B razil* P ar agu ay*

    Ca ym an Islands P er u*

    C hi le* P ue rto R ic o

    Colo m bi a* S .Georgia & S.S andwich Islands

    C os ta Rica* Sa int K itt s a nd Ne vis

    Cuba * Sai nt L ucia

    Do m i ni ca S ain t P ie rre an d Mi qu elon

    Dom i n ican Re pub lic* S ain t Vince nt & th e Gr en adin es

    E cuad or* S urinam e

    E l S alvador* Trinid ad and Tobago

    Grenada Turk s an d Ca icos Isla nd s

    Guadelo upe Ur ugu ay*

    Guatem ala* Venezuela*

    Gu yana

    W e s te rn E uro p eA ndorr a L iecht en stein *

    A ustria* L uxem bourg*

    Belgiu m * Mal ta *

    Cyprus* Monac o*

    Denm a rk * Nethe rlan ds*

    Finland * N orway*

    Franc e* P ortugal *

    Germ any* S an Ma rin o

    Gibralta r Spa in*

    Greece* Sv alb ard and Ja n Maye n Isla nds

    Greenland S weden*

    Holy S ee* S witze r land *

    Ic eland * Tu rk ey*Irel and* United K ing do m *

    It aly*

    GR OUP I N G O F C OUN TRI ES AND ARE AS

    The c o un tri es a nd g e og raph ic a l are as

    i n clu ded i n eac h gro upi n g are l i s te d b el o w

    (I A E A Me m b er S ta t es are d en ot ed b y an a s t eri s k )

    *

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    10

    AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*

    Angola* Mali*

    Benin* Mauritania*

    Botswana* Mauritius*

    Burkina Faso* Mayotte

    Burundii* Morocco*

    Cameroon* Mozambique*

    Cape Verdee* Namibia*

    Central Africa n Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*

    Comoros Reunion

    Congoo* Rwanda*

    Cte d'Ivoire* Saint Helena

    Democratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and Principe

    Djibouti Senegal*

    Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*

    Eritrea* Somalia

    Ethiopia* South Africa*

    Gabon* Sudan*

    Gambia Swaziland

    Ghana* Togo

    Guinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*

    Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*

    Lesotho* Western Sahara

    Liberia* Zambia*

    Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*

    Madagascar*

    Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*

    Armenia* Montenegro*

    Poland*Azerbaijan*

    Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*

    Russian Federation*Bulgaria*

    Serbia*Croatia*

    Slovakia*Czech Republic*

    Slovenia*Estonia*

    Tajikistan*Georgia*

    The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*

    Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*

    Uzbekistan*Latvia*

    *

    *

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    11

    M i dd l e E a st an d S o uth Asi a

    A f ghanistan * K uwa it *

    B ah rain* L ebanon*

    B anglade sh* N epal*

    Bh utan Om an*British Indian Ocean Territory P ak is ta n*

    Coc os (Ke elin g) Isl ands Qatar *

    Fre nch Southern Territo ries S au di A ra bia *

    Heard Is lan d& Mc Donal d Is lands Sri L an k a*

    Indi a* S yrian A rab Re pub lic*

    Ir an , Isla m ic Repu bl i c o f* T.T.U.T.J of T. P a l es tinia n A .

    Iraq* United A rab E m ir at es *Is rael* Yem en*

    Jordan *

    S o uth E as t Asi a and th e P acifi c

    A ustral ia* Northern Mari ana Is lands

    B runei D ar uss alam P alau*

    Cook Is land s P apu a New Guine a*Fi ji P itc airn Isla nd s

    Ind one sia* S am oa

    K irib at i S ingapore*

    Malays ia * S o lo m on Is lan ds

    Maldive s T hailand*

    Marshal l Is lands* Timo r L es te

    Mi crones ia (Fe d. St ates of) Tok el au

    Myanm ar* Tuva lu

    New Zea la nd* U S Minor Outlyin g Isla nd s

    Niue Va nua tu

    Nor fo lk Is la nds W allis and Futu na Isl ands

    Fa r E as t

    Ca m bo dia* Ma cau, Ch i na

    China * Mong olia *

    De m . P.R. of K o rea P h ilipp ines *

    Ja pan* Taiwan , Ch ina

    K ore a, R epublic of* Vietnam *

    L a o P.D. R.

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    12

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    13

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    TABLE2.

    NUMBEROFCOUNT

    RIESWITHNUCLEAR

    POWERREACTORS

    INOPERATIONORUNDERCONSTRUCTIO

    N(endof2010)

    CountryGroup

    NumberofCountriesinG

    roup

    Countries

    withNuclearPowerRe

    actors

    InOperation

    Long-termSh

    utDown

    UnderConstruction(1)

    Total(2)

    NorthAme

    rica

    2

    2

    1

    1

    2

    LatinAmerica

    45

    3

    2

    3

    WesternEurope

    29

    9

    2

    9

    EasternEu

    rope

    27

    9

    4

    9

    Africa

    57

    1

    1

    MiddleEas

    tandSouthAsia

    25

    2

    3

    3

    SouthEast

    AsiaandthePacific

    27

    FarEast

    11

    3

    1

    3

    3

    WorldTota

    l

    223

    29

    2

    15

    30

    Notes

    Notes

    (1)Mayincl

    udecountrieshaingreact

    orsalreadyinoperation.

    (1)Mayincl

    udecountrieshaingreact

    orsalreadyinoperation.

    (2)Totalnu

    mberofcountriesineach

    groupthathaenuclearpowerreactorsinoperation

    orunderconstruction.

    (2)Totalnu

    mberofcountriesineach

    groupthathaenuclearpowerreactorsinoperation

    orunderconstruction.

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    17

    %

    %

    %

    %

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    18

    GW(e)

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    19

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    21

    2010

    2020

    %

    %

    %

    %

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    22

    Percentage

    (%)

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    23

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    25

    2010

    2

    020

    2030

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    26

    EJ

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    27

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    29

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    30

    EJ

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    32

    EJ

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    33

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    36

    TABLE8.

    FUELUSE(EJ)FOR

    ELECTRICITYGENER

    ATIONBYTYPEOFFUELIN2010

    CountryGroup

    Thermal(a)

    Hydro

    Nuclear

    Renewables(b)

    Total

    NorthAmerica

    30.53

    2.36

    9.74

    0.91

    43.55

    LatinAmerica

    5.57

    2.60

    0.29

    0.39

    8.85

    WesternEurope

    15.57

    2.08

    8.85

    0.99

    27.49

    EasternEurope

    19.16

    1.11

    3.61

    0.03

    23.91

    Africa

    5.99

    0.37

    0.14

    0.05

    6.55

    MiddleEast

    andSouthAsia

    21.48

    0.61

    0.25

    >

    0.

    01

    22.34

    22.34

    SouthEastA

    siaandthePacific

    6.96

    0.26

    0.49

    7.70

    FarEast

    47.67

    3.17

    5.81

    0.57

    57.22

    WorldTotal

    152.93

    12.56

    28.69

    3.43

    197.61

    Notes

    Notes

    (a)Thecol

    umnheaded

    Thermal

    sth

    etotalorsoldsl

    uds

    asesb

    omassandwaste.

    (a)Thecol

    umnheaded

    Thermal

    sth

    etotalorsoldsl

    uds

    asesb

    omassandwaste.

    (b)Thecol

    umnheaded

    Renewables

    ncludes

    eothermalw

    nd

    solarandtdeenery.

    (b)Thecol

    umnheaded

    Renewables

    ncludes

    eothermalw

    nd

    solarandtdeenery.

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    37

    TABLE9.PERCENTAGECONT

    RIBUTIONOFEACH

    FUELTYPETO

    ELEC

    TRICITYGENERATIONIN2010

    CountryGroup

    Thermal(a)

    Hydro

    Nuclear

    Renewables(b)

    Total

    NorthAmerica

    65.01

    14.00

    19.04

    1.95

    100.00

    LatinAmeri

    ca

    36.90

    59.96

    2.17

    0.97

    100.00

    WesternEurope

    49.01

    18.90

    26.61

    5.48

    100.00

    EasternEurope

    64.79

    16.89

    18.16

    0.15

    100.00

    Africa

    81.42

    16.16

    2.01

    0.42

    100.00

    MiddleEast

    andSouthAsia

    88.33

    10.26

    1.39

    0.02

    100.00

    SouthEastAsiaandthePacific

    87.89

    9.52

    2.59

    100.00

    FarEast

    74.67

    15.35

    9.30

    0.67

    100.00

    WorldTotal

    66.98

    17.85

    13.46

    1.71

    100.00

    Notes

    Notes

    (a)Thecol

    umnheaded

    Thermal

    sthetotalorsoldsl

    uds

    asesbomassandwaste.

    (a)Thecol

    umnheaded

    Thermal

    sthetotalorsoldsl

    uds

    asesbomassandwaste.

    (b)Thecolumnheaded

    Renewables

    ncludes

    eothermalw

    nd

    solarandtdeenery.

    (b)Thecolumnheaded

    Renewables

    ncludes

    eothermalw

    nd

    solarandtdeenery.

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    40

    MillionsofInhabitants

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    41

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    43

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    44

    5

    GJ

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    45

    5

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    46

    5

    4

    6

    8

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    47

    5

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    49

    TABLE12.

    AVERAGEANNUAL

    GROWTHRATESDU

    RINGTHEPERIOD20002010(%)

    C

    ountryGroup

    Population

    TotalEnergy

    TotalElectricity

    NuclearEner

    gy

    NuclearCapacity

    NorthAmerica

    1.0

    0.0

    0.6

    0.8

    0.6

    LatinAmeri

    ca

    1.3

    2.7

    2.1

    2.9

    -0.1

    WesternEurope

    0.6

    0.2

    0.8

    -0.4

    -0.3

    EasternEurope

    -0.4

    1.0

    1.3

    1.9

    0.4

    Africa

    2.7

    2.7

    4.5

    -0.1

    0.0

    MiddleEast

    andSouthAsia

    2.0

    5.6

    4.6

    4.2

    4.7

    SouthEastAsiaandthePacific

    1.5

    4.0

    3.3

    FarEast

    0.7

    5.3

    7.2

    1.5

    2.4

    WorldAvera

    ge

    1.3

    2.4

    2.9

    0.7

    0.7

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    50

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    AnnualGrowthRate(%

    )

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    51

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    53

    TABLE13

    .ESTIMATESOFAVERAGEANNUALGRO

    WTHRATESDURING

    THEPERIOD2010

    2030(%)

    CountryGroup

    Population

    TotalEnergy

    TotalElectric

    ity

    NuclearEnergy

    Nuclear

    Capacity

    NorthAmerica

    0.8

    0.0

    1.

    8

    0.6

    0.7

    -0.1

    1.4

    -0.1

    1.3

    LatinAmerica

    0.9

    3.2

    5.

    0

    5.0

    7.2

    5.0

    8.9

    3.9

    7.7

    WesternEurope

    0.3

    1.1

    1.

    6

    1.4

    2.3

    -1.0

    1.6

    -1.9

    0.7

    EasternEurope

    -0.1

    0.7

    1.

    7

    1.9

    2.9

    3.4

    4.9

    2.8

    4.2

    Africa

    2.1

    3.0

    6.

    0

    7.0

    9.0

    5.7

    12.1

    5.2

    11.5

    MiddleEast

    andSouthAsia

    1.2

    4.1

    5.

    0

    5.6

    6.8

    12.4

    15.6

    9.9

    13.0

    SouthEastA

    siaandthePacific

    0.9

    2.3

    2.

    6

    4.0

    4.7

    FarEast

    0.3

    2.4

    3.

    7

    2.4

    3.9

    5.0

    6.9

    4.1

    5.9

    WorldAvera

    ge

    0.9

    2.0

    3.

    3

    2.7

    3.9

    2.0

    4.1

    1.5

    3.5

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    @No. 22

    Where to order IAEA publicationsIn the following countriesIAEA publications may be purchased from the sources

    listed below, or from major local booksellers. Payment may be made in local

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    AUSTRALIADA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132

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    JAPANMaruzen Company, Ltd., 13-6 Nihonbashi, 3 chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-0027

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    On-line orders

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