Energy Policy Master Plan for Ukraine

October 2015

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Foreword

This is the final report of “Energy Policy Master Plan for Ukraine” which was initiated by

the government of Japan. The Institute of Economics, Japan was appointed by the government

to conduct the study.

Ukraine is, unfortunately, has confronting difficulty in every aspect of their energy supply

chain. When Japan sees and understanding this situation, as a part of international society and a

member of G7 summit countries, has decided to support Ukraine. The study is part of this effort

which aims at providing useful suggestions for Ukraine government in a long-term perspective.

It is our grate honor and pleasure to conclude the report, and hope to provide any support for

a long journey of Ukraine to strengthen their energy structure.

October 2015

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Tokyo, Japan

Table of contents

Chapter 1. Recognition of current situation ........................................................................... 1

Chapter 2. Basic principle of long term energy policy ........................................................... 3

Chapter 3. Demand outlook .................................................................................................. 5

Chapter 4. Supply plan ....................................................................................................... 10

4-1 Outline ....................................................................................................................... 10

4-2 Electricity supply ....................................................................................................... 11

4-3 Coal supply ............................................................................................................... 16

4-4 Heat supply ............................................................................................................... 19

4-5 Natural gas supply .................................................................................................... 23

4-6 Oil supply .................................................................................................................. 27

Chapter 5. Financing .......................................................................................................... 29

Chapter 6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 32

1

Chapter 1. Recognition of current situation

The total energy demand has rapidly dropped after dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990

through 2000. Although the energy demand increased after that until 2008 with economic

recovery, it dropped again due to the ailing world economy triggered by the bankruptcy of

Lehman Brothers in 2008. Although the economic recovery and increase of energy demand

were observed through 2012, the economic slowdown has recently become apparent caused by

the conflict in the eastern regions.

Low efficiency for energy utilization is a big issue concerning the demand side. Most of the

energy related facilities, such as power plants, power grids, district heating systems, and oil

refineries were built in the Soviet Union era, and deterioration of those facilities is now

progressing because sufficient investment was not made into those facilities during the turmoil

after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990. In addition, another reason for low efficiency

for energy utilization can be adduced as the background that the incentive to enhance the

efficiency for energy utilization was weak, since the energy price was set at a level lower than

the supply cost as part of the social policy.

Therefore, drastic improvement of energy efficiency is required for Ukraine to establish a

healthier energy supply-demand structure in the future.

Figure; Energy consumption per unit GDP (2012)

toe = tone of oil equivalent

Source: IEA, 2014

On the other hand, in the supply side, there are two major risk factors in the energy supply of

Ukraine. The first is excessive dependency on Russia for natural gas supply, and the second is

1.28

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

World's highest

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Russia

China

India

Non‐OECD avg.

World avg.

Poland

Canada

United States

OECD avg.

EU‐28 avg.

Germ

any

Japan

World's lowest

toe/USD1000

2

the uncertainty of the anthracite coal supply. The natural gas is used mainly for heat generation

and the anthracite coal for power generation.

More than half of the natural gas supply (in 2013) in Ukraine depends on import, and most of

that is from Russia. Since Russia and Ukraine in the Soviet Union period maintained close and

good bilateral relations, dependence of Ukraine on import of the natural gas from mainly Russia

was not a risk. But at present after such relationship collapsed, this dependence on Russia has

become a risk factor in terms of politics, economy, and energy security.

Uncertainty of the anthracite coal supply is caused by the conflict in the eastern regions of

Ukraine. The anthracite coal is mostly produced in the eastern regions and supply of them to the

western regions is decreasing. As a result, many of the power generation and electricity supply

in the western regions are threatened. Although stabilization of the political relationship with

Russia and the autonomies in the eastern regions is essential to improve the situations, at present

it is uncertain when and how the conflict can be solved. That is to say, it is difficult to prospect

stabilization of anthracite coal production and power supply in the eastern regions.

Because of the above, reorganization of the supply structure of the natural gas and coal has

become an urgent need over the short and medium term.

Figure; Distribution of natural gas supply Figure; Distribution of coal production

Source: BP, 2014 Source: Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry

Production42%

Russia54%

Other import4%

46.2Bcmin 2013

Donetsk Region45%

Lugansk Region31%

Dnipropetrovsk Region22%

Lviv Region2%

Volyn Region0%

83mil. ton2013

3

Chapter 2. Basic principle of long term energy policy

The long-term energy policy aims to substantiate in a well-balanced manner the so-called 3E,

Energy security, Economic efficiency, and Environment.

a) Energy security

Increase in self-sufficiency is a first priority issue. From this viewpoint, it is important to

control first the growth in demand by improvement of energy efficiency. In parallel to this, it

is also important to improve self-sufficiency by promoting expansion of production volume of

indigenous fossil fuels and maintaining the utilization of nuclear power generation.

Although the renewable energy also contributes to increase self-sufficiency, it is necessary

to consider economic efficiency, i.e. cost, compare to other energy sources.

b) Economic efficiency

It is more desirable to supply energy as cheap as possible, since increase in energy cost

affects people’s life and industrial competitiveness. Although production increase of the fossil

fuel at the domestic sites was recommended from the viewpoint of an “Energy security”, this

recommendation assumes, in principle, the case only when the domestic production cost is

lower compared with the cost of import fuels. If the import cost is lower than the domestic

production cost, it is suggested to reduce domestic production and instead to expand import of

fossil fuel step by step.

However, based on the current situations of insufficient foreign currency reserves, put a

priority on domestic production for the time being shall be studied also in consideration of

supply security and job creation.

c) Environment

Control of the environmental load is a demand of the society and shall continue to be

responded to. From this standpoint, it is required to increase energy efficiency, and to increase

utilization of low carbon energy such as the nuclear energy and the renewable energy.

From the standpoint of an energy security and economic efficiency, however, coal cannot

do anything but play a continuously important role in electric power generation. In order to

control the environmental load of the coal-fired power, it is desirable to offset the CO2

emission with a combination of adopting higher efficiency technology for coal-fired power

generation and utilization of the nuclear power generation.

Based on the above principles, each energy source shall be defined as follows.

4

Coal ・ Although this is the domestic production energy source with excellent

economic efficiency, import will be gradually required in the western

regions.

・ This is continuously the major fuel for electric power generation.

・ As this has high environmental load, this shall be utilized with as high

efficiency as possible.

Oil ・ This is the energy source which is difficult to be replaced in the

transportation sector and has high import dependency.

・ Utilization of this source shall be controlled as much as possible, and

efficiency shall be increased when used.

Natural gas ・ This is the domestic production energy source.

・ Diversification of import source country and route is an issue.

・ This is continuously the major fuel for heat production.

・ The demand shall be controlled by improvement of utilization efficiency.

Nuclear power ・ This is the quasi-domestic production energy source which is excellent in

terms of a supply stability, economic efficiency, and environmental load.

・ This shall be positively utilized while enhancing safety level.

Hydraulic power

Biomass

・ This is the domestic production energy source which is excellent in terms

of supply stability and environmental issues.

・ Utilization shall be expanded while considering economic efficiency.

Wind power

Photovoltaic

power

・ This is the domestic production energy source which is excellent in terms

of environmental issues.

・ At present, this source has big issues in terms of supply stability and

economic efficiency.

・ This has low priority in development in the short term and is regarded as

a future option.

5

Chapter 3. Demand outlook

Typical representative factors which have a big influence on the future energy demand are

economic growth and energy efficiency. In this chapter, the possible future pictures of the

energy demand in Ukraine are drawn by these combinations.

In the Reference scenario, the economic growth rate during the outlook period up to 2035 is

assumed to be 1.3% per annum on average in reference to “World Economic Outlook” (April

2015) of the International Monetary Fund and “Regional Economic Issues: Central, Eastern and

Southeastern Europe” (May 2015) of the same. On the other hand, in the Higher growth

scenario, the economic growth rate is assumed to be 2.3% per annum, which is 1% point higher

than that of the Reference scenario, assuming the future where the economic growth with a

relatively higher rate is achieved. In these scenarios, although improvement of energy efficiency

is implemented in each sector as in the past, room for further increase in efficiency is left behind.

Improvement of energy efficiency in the Reference scenario becomes 1.2% annually

implemented by equipment replacement, energy price reform, and etc. Although the economic

growth rate in the Efficient scenario is the same as that in the Reference scenario, improvement

of energy efficiency was assumed to be implemented with a higher speed of 1.9% annually in

consideration of the target of the whole European Union (energy saving of 20% by 2020

compared with BAU) stated in the Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU). That is, the future

courses are drawn where the demand is higher in the Higher growth scenario, and on the

contrary lower in the Efficient scenario as an example. Observation of the differences among

these scenarios enables us to presume what kind of change possibly affects Ukraine and the

information can be obtained to derive the policies required to respond to that change.

Table; Scenario setting

GDP growth Efficiency Energy demand

Reference 1.3% p.a. Reference Centre

Higher growth 2.3% p.a. Same as Reference Higher

Efficient Same as Reference More efficient Lower

In the Reference scenario, the primary energy demand increases slightly by 0.1% annually,

and the demand in 2035 exceeds that in 2013 slightly. On the other hand, in the Higher growth

scenario, the demand increases by 0.8% annually and becomes 1.18 times of that in 2013 in the

same period. On the contrary, in the Efficient scenario, the demand in 2035 is 12% lower than

that in 2013.

6

The share of energy sources in total consumption is in general projected to be maintained at

the same rate as is demanded now. The increment of electric power demand, however, is

assumed to be met mainly by the coal-fired power generation and nuclear power generation.

Therefore, in the Higher growth scenario, the increase in coal demand becomes remarkable. On

the other hand, improvement of energy efficiency is considered to be achieved by the space and

water heating in the residential sector and automobile. In the Efficient scenario, in combination

with replacement of the coal-fired power generation with the nuclear power generation,

consumption of all types of fossil fuel in 2035 is lower than that in 2013.

Fig; Total primary energy demand Fig; Energy demand by scenario (2035

Note; 3.3% p.a. of GDP growth rate is assumed in the Ukrainian Energy Strategy 2035

Note; Most of ‘other renewables’ consists of biomass in the Ukrainian Energy Strategy 2035

In the final energy consumption, in terms of contribution by sector, contribution by the

buildings sector and the industrial sector are as large as 4 Mtoe, and by energy source,

contribution of natural gas is the largest followed by oil. Most of the reduction of natural gas

consumption is attained by the buildings sector, and the other reduction of oil consumption is

concentrated on the transportation sector. Although reduction of oil consumption has a larger

effect on economic gain because of its higher price, reduction of natural gas consumption is an

urgent issue in view of security concern. Although energy saving is largely expected,

appropriately establishing the priority area of the countermeasures may be required.

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

Higher growth

Energy Strategy

Reference

Efficient

0 20 40

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear

Oil

Hydro

Otherrenewables

Mtoe

Efficient Reference Higher growth

Energy Strategy 2013

7

Figure; Savings of final demand (Reference scenario vs. Efficient scenario, 2035)

By sector By energy

In addition, reduction of energy consumption,, especially fossil fuel, brings reduction of the

CO2 emissions and decrease of energy import dependency. Moreover, an emission reduction

effect of air pollutants can also be expected.

Fig; CO2 emissions from fuel combustion Fig; Energy import dependency (2035)

Note; Net import/ Total primary energy supply

Then, what do these outlooks indicate?

Firstly, a slight difference in the economic growth rate can create a big change in the future

energy demand. Although the economic growth rate assumed in the Higher growth scenario is

only 1% point larger than that in the Reference scenario, the energy demand in the Higher

growth scenario in 2035 becomes 16% larger than that in the Reference scenario. And, it should

Buildings, etc., 4

Transport, 2

Industry, 4

Coal, 1

Oil, 2

Natural gas, 3

Heat, 2

Electricity, 1 Total: 10 Mtoe

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt Higher growth

Reference

Efficient

0%

10%

20%

30%

2013 Higher growth

Reference Efficient

8

be understood that the growth rate of 2.3% annually assumed in the Higher growth scenario is

not extremely high. For example, the economic growth rate from 2000 to 2012 was recorded at

3.7%, although the global financial crisis was occurred during the same period. In the situations

where the end of conflict in the eastern regions cannot be forecast, pessimistic views on the

future of Ukrainian economy tend to be dominant. This unstable situation, however, may not

necessarily continue for next two decades. Since the energy demand turns easily to expansion if

the economy improves, it is required to carefully observe the turning point and respond to the

issues. It is necessary to draw the future vision from the mid- and long-term perspective while

also responding to the on-going and short-term situations.

Secondly, outlook clearly indicates the effect of improvement of energy efficiency. Even if

the economy grows, it becomes possible to considerably suppress the total demand of energy by

developing more powerful energy efficiency and conservation policies. Moreover, Ukraine, who

is currently inferior in energy efficiency compared with other countries, has considerable room

for efficiency improvement which can be implemented at comparatively low cost with big

potential of consumption reduction by this improvement. Efficient energy consumption not only

leads to reduction of spending for fossil fuel import and to enhancement of global

competitiveness, it also contributes to improvement of energy security through the decrease of

energy import dependency. Efficient energy consumption can also reduce the investment

amount for energy infrastructures including that for power and heat supply, and enables the

country to allocate resources and funds to other sectors for restoration of the economy.

Figure; Net import spending of fossil fuel and its share of GDP (2035)

Regarding the policies, we would like to present the following five items as key

countermeasures

0%

4%

8%

12%

0

10

20

30

2013 Higher growth Reference Efficient

% of G

DP

Net im

port spending ($2013 billion)

Import spending

% of GDP

9

a. Rationalization of energy price

Wasteful consumption can be reduced by setting the energy price to a level corresponding to

the supply cost. In addition, if electricity, natural gas, and heat charge can be varied depending

on the import fuel price, the price mechanism would begin to function.

b. Establishment of individual metering and consumption based billing

It is necessary for people and company to know first the actual consumption conditions to

increase the energy efficiency. In order to achieve this, it is required to install a meter of

electricity, natural gas, and heat for every customer one by one. In addition, the charge shall be

levied based on the actual consumption.

c. Replacement of the deteriorated electric power system

Deterioration of the facilities for power generation and power grid is remarkable. It causes

decline in power generation efficiency and increase in power grid loss. It is required to replace

the deteriorated facilities including power plant and transformers with higher efficient / lower

loss facilities by step-by-step updating. These efforts would lead to reduction of natural gas

consumption and coal consumption.

d. Improvement in efficiency of heat supply system

It is required to improve efficiency of the heat supply system since deterioration is also

progressing in the system. It is possible to reduce natural gas consumption by replacement of

transportation pipelines and use of unutilized energy. In addition, it is required to replace the

heating equipment for individual heating in the rural areas with higher efficiency equipment one

step at a time with increases of the natural gas rate to reach the appropriate level and educational

activities.

e. Increase control of the oil demand

A major demand for oil comes from automobiles. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce

consumption by countermeasures of fuel economy regulation of automobiles that are

produced/imported and sold, and of suppression of automobile use where, on the contrary, use

of public transportation is encouraged. These efforts would also contribute to reduction of

import cost, since oil depends mostly on import.

10

Chapter 4. Supply plan

4-1 Outline

Energy supply is studied based on the demand outlook described above. The outline is shown

as follows.

Electricity

supply

・ Maintaining utilization of the nuclear power generation as the base load

power supply

・ Replace existing aged anthracite coal-fired power plant to steam coal

(bituminous, sub-bituminous) burning higher efficiency plant.

・ Utilization of the renewable energy based on the economic efficiency

assessment

Heat supply ・ Implementation of repair based on the equipment diagnosis and the priority

・ Installation of heat meters, and implementation of the rate system reform

・ Select efficient supply method based on the district heat demand

・ Use of unutilized energy

・ Increase in efficiency of individual heating

Coal ・ Scrap & build of the coal mines

・ Support of the employees who left the coal mine

・ Study of mine mouth power generation using brown coal

・ Study of promotion of utilization of steam coal

・ Effective use of the coal mine gas

Natural gas ・ Promotion of development of indigenous natural gas resource

・ Diversification of natural gas import

Expansion of physical capability of reverse flow from Europe

Study of direct import of LNG

・ Effective use of the underground storage facilities

Oil ・ Create better investment environment to attract investment

・ Study of repair and upgrade of the oil refineries

・ Enhancement of demand control

Financing ・ Prepare a good investment environment

・ Revision of the rate to one reflecting supply cost

・ Financing by the earmarked tax and the surcharge

・ Use of the public companies

11

4-2 Electricity supply

We would like to propose a power supply mix composed mainly of nuclear power and

coal-fired power, which is the same as the current one, from the viewpoint of a supply stability

and economic efficiency. The CO2 emission by the coal-fired power generation is offset by

utilization of the nuclear power generation.

In addition, since the power grids in Ukraine have also aged, it is required to modernize them

step by step.

Figure; Generation capacity and Power generation outlook

(Reference scenario）

a. Nuclear power; Maintain as the base load fleet

We would like to propose the continued use of nuclear power as the power supply which

covers the base load, since nuclear power is quasi-indigenous, low cost, and low-carbon energy.

Many of the existing nuclear power plants, however, were built in the 1980s, and will expire

their operating life before 2035. Since new construction of a nuclear power plant requires a

large amount of investment and long construction lead time, it is not realistic to replace all the

existing nuclear power plants with new ones based on the design life. Thus, we would like to

propose the operating life extension of the existing nuclear power plants. For extension,

however, it is necessary to scrutinize the situation of each existing power plant and to

comprehend if extension of its operating life is possible and how much cost is required for it. In

some cases, replacement may be more appropriate.

Ukraine has the plan to construct Khmelnitska No.3 unit (1GW) and No.4 unit (1Gw) at

present and steady progress of the construction is recommended, since operation as a baseload

can be expected from these power generators when considering annual load curb and future

28% 29% 28% 26% 26%

41%38% 34% 30% 29%

1% 3% 5% 5%10% 9% 9% 11% 10%13% 13% 12% 11% 11%8% 10% 13%

17% 19%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035

other REs

CHP

Hydro

Coal (Replace）

Coal (existing）

Nuclear

GW Generation capacity

45%57% 53% 50% 47%

39% 23% 23% 18% 22%

2%6% 10%

10%5%

6%6% 7%

7%9%

8%8% 7%

7%1%

3% 4%7%

8%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035

other REs

CHP

Hydro

Coal (Replace）

Coal (existing）

Nuclear

TWh Power generation

12

demand of electricity. If the minimum load of electricity demand greatly increases in the future,

there is an alternative of adding another unit (approximately 1GW).

Figure; Capacity of NPP by type (Reference scenario)

b. Coal-fired power; Replacement and efficiency improvement

Since Ukraine has coal resources, it is desirable to make the best use of them for energy

security. As the coal-fired power is excellent in economic efficiency, we would like to propose

to use them for power source as the base and middle load. Although the coal-fired power

generation has the issue of large CO2 emission, this emission amount can be offset by

continuous use of the nuclear power generation.

Many of the coal-fired power plants have deteriorated, have low thermal efficiency, and have

almost no equipment installed for preventing air pollution. Therefore, it is necessary to replace

the existing old coal-fired power plants with new high efficient ones which are equipped with

air pollution control system to comply with various EU rules.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

New plant

Life extension

Designed operation life

GW

13

Figure; Major Coal-fired and Nuclear power plant in Ukraine

The more problematic issue is the type of coal. Although there are six coal-fired power plants

where anthracite is used as fuel, the eastern regions that are the supply sources of anthracite are

in conflict situations. Therefore, the supply of anthracite has stagnated resulting in a lower

operating rate of the anthracite-fired thermal power plants. It is difficult to predict the future of

the conflict in the eastern regions, and uncertainty of supply of anthracite is very high. On the

other hand, there are many countries which can export bituminous and sub-bituminous coal, and

the supply sources can be diversified even if those are imported from foreign countries. In

addition, cost of bituminous and sub-bituminous coal is cheaper than anthracite coal. Based on

these facts, we would like to propose that the fuel used in the coal-fired power plants be

converted from anthracite to bituminous/sub-bituminous coal when the existing deteriorated

coal-fired power plants are replaced. We also would like to propose that the bituminous /

sub-bituminous coal import infrastructure be expanded its capacity, since the amount of

domestic bituminous coal resources is limited and the mid- and long-term import of those shall

be considered to be the premise.

We made a rough estimation of the payback period of the boiler based on the past and the

latest typical data1 in cases when the varying difference in price of the anthracite and the

bituminous coal was in the range from US$20 to US$50 /ton. When the discount rate was 0%,

the result was 6.5 years for the difference in price of US$50/ ton, 8.5 years for US$40/ ton, 12.5

1 Construction cost of the power plant: 1,800$/kW (Boiler part shares 30% among them.)

Calorific value of anthracite: 5,922kcal/kg and calorific value of bituminous coal: 5,326kcal/kg Electric power generation efficiency by anthracite: 31.8% and by bituminous coal: 32.7%

14

years for $30/ ton, and 23 years for $20/ ton. When the discount rate is assumed to be 5% and

10%, the payback period becomes considerably worse. On the contrary, the payback period can

be greatly shortened by improvement of the operating rate.

Figure; Payback period of boiler replacement

(left: operating rate 50%, right: operating rate 80%)

Regarding replacement of the anthracite-fired thermal power plants, when considering there

is some room left for the government to be involved in the investment strategy and also able to

receive Official Development Assistance from foreign countries, publicly owned power plant

such as Trypilska power plant and Zmiivska power plant of Centrenergo can be prioritized in

such investment. On the other hand in the private sector, energy efficiency and conservation law

can be utilized as implementation tool of policy to enhance replacement of old and low

efficiency facility / equipment. For example, government can set a long-term average efficiency

target for power company.

It is not realistic to assume many replacements in a short period of time, since replacement

with high efficient power plants that equipped with preventive measure for air pollution requires

a large amount of investment, a comparatively longer term of planning and construction work.

Therefore, in the Reference scenario, replacement with about 1GW was assumed in 2020, with

another about 1GW in 2025, and again with about another 1GW in 2030. In addition, partial

improvement, such as replacement of the burners and the turbines whose investment amount is

lower than that of whole replacement, may be also a subject of studied as a short-term

countermeasure for efficiency improvement.

By having these efforts, improvement of the average thermal efficiency of the coal-fired

power generation and reduction of the coal consumption can be expected.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

US$50  US$40  US$30  US$20 

year

Difference of import price

Discount rate: 0% 5% 10%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

US$50  US$40  US$30  US$20 

year

Difference of import price

Discount rate: 0% 5% 10%

15

Figure; Average thermal efficiency and coal consumption outlook

(Utility, Coal-fired power plant, Reference scenario）

Although Ukraine also has the resources of brown coal, those are hardly used now. From the

viewpoint of effective use of the domestic resources, it is worthwhile to study construction of

the mine mouth power plant where brown coal is used as the fuel. In addition, if IGCC

(Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle) technology is used, moisture and ash are

removed during the gasification process and it is possible to significantly increase the electric

power efficiency.

Figure; Net thermal efficiency by technology

Note) Sub-C: Sub-Critical, SC: Super Critical, USC: Ultra-Super Critical A-USC: Advanced Ultra-Supercritical IGCC: Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle IGFC: Integrated Coal Gasification Fuel Cell Combined Cycle deg C: degrees Celsius, GT: Gas Turbine

Source: METI

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035

(%) Thermal efficiency (Utility)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035

(Mtoe) Coal consumption (Utility)

352010 2020 2030

Net

The

rmal

Eff

icie

ncy

(%)

60

55

50

45

40

Sub‐C (1950s)

SC (1970s)

USC (1990s)

Future technology

IGCC1700 deg C GT

A‐USC

IGFC

Existing technology

16

c. Renewable energy; Cost effective use

Although the potential is small, the development possibility of hydropower generation still

remains. In addition, feasibility of utilization of biomass, such as agricultural residues, is

expected, since Ukraine is an agricultural country, although establishment of collection and

treatment process is a pre-requisite. Since both power generation methods are excellent in terms

of supply stability among the renewable energies, we would like to propose pursuing feasibility

of utilization based on the deliberate economic efficiency assessment.

Other renewable energies represented by wind power and solar PV are currently high in cost

and have unstable output due to dependency on the weather. Although they are attractive for

improvement of the self-sufficiency rate and countermeasures against global warming, they

cannot be placed anywhere but at a low priority when the predicament on the Ukraine economy

is taken into consideration. In the future when economic growth will become vigorous or the

cost for these renewable energies will be drastically reduced by technological innovation, these

are the items that shall be taken up on the table for discussion.

4-3 Coal supply

In Ukraine the coal demand for thermal power plant is expected to grow gradually in

connection with the increase of the electric power demand in the future. Since electric power is

one of the national life lines, maintaining the coal supply is indispensable. The political

conditions of the eastern Ukraine regions, which account for 75% of the total coal production,

are currently unstable, and therefore dependence of coal supply for the Eastern regions is

becoming an issue of the energy security. Although Ukraine cannot do anything but depend on

import of the coal in the short term, it is necessary to establish the mid- and long-term plans for

effective utilization of domestic resources, for improvement of coal production efficiency, and

for a stable coal supply.

a. Scrap & build of the coal mines

At present Ukraine is progressing plans to gradually abolish subsidy to the coal mines and to

privatize the coal mines, and it is important to continuously promote these policies. The coal

mines with low productivity will be forced to be closed from now on. Underground equipment

in the Ukraine coal mines is currently in the situation where deterioration is progressing without

modernization and repair is hardly being performed. It is necessary to introduce modern

equipment such as the self-advancing support which has the supporting power to bear the

ground pressure deep underground and the high efficient coal mining equipment to improve

productivity of underground mining. In addition, the retreating longwalls mining method, where

the coal bed conditions can be comprehended in advance and air vents before mining and

17

maintenance of tunnels can be easily implemented, can improve productivity. Although the

current major mining method is the retreating longwalls mining method, some coal mines have

introduced the advancing longwalls mining method due to a delay of a part of the gateroad. It is

important to draw a deliberate mining plan such as the plan to employ many people to dig the

gateroad, since with the retreating longwalls mining method it takes time to dig the gateroad.

b. Support of the displaced coal mine workers

The Ukraine government approved closure of the coal mines with low productivity among

284 coal mines in 1997. Based on this principle, the number of coal mines was reduced to 244

in 1999, 232 in 2000, 167 in 2005, 151 in 2009, and 135 in 2013. It is expected in the future that

the coal mines with low productivity will be forced to be closed due to abolition of the subsidy.

Because of a coal mine closure, there are a great number of employees who left the coal mine

in a limited region. Therefore, re-employment is expected to become difficult, and preparation

of an employment policy program is required. When Japan’s unemployment issue of the coal

mine workers also became serious, and act on emergency measures of displaced coal mine

workers was enacted in December, 1959. This law will become a good reference for Ukraine as

it defines subsidy for securing employment, vocational training for displaced employees,

preferential hiring of the displaced coal mine workers, and the benefit to the unemployed people

or employers.

Figure; Japan’s experience for displaced coal mine workers

c. Study of mine mouth power generation using brown coal

There exist abundant brown coal deposits in the central part of Ukraine. There were small

surface coal mines of Olexandria deposit in the Kirovohrad area and of Mokra Kalyhirka

deposit in the Cherkasy area, and only a little less than 200,000 tons of brown coal was

produced per year from these coal mines. These areas, however, have huge potential of holding

brown coal, as much as 2,300 million tons of estimated reserves. In general, since brown coal is

not suitable for transportation due to its high moisture content, in order to develop brown coal

mines on a large scale, the method is taken where electricity is generated at mine mouth power

18

plant and transmitted to demand area via power grid.

Regarding development of the recent mine mouth thermal power generation, the Hongsa

mine mouth thermal power generation project in Laos is being developed with the capital of

Thailand. The following table shows the outline, and the amount of the gross investment for

coal mine development, the electric power plant, and construction of the power line is 3,700

million dollars.

Based on the above, we would like to propose conducting a feasibility study of the

development of brown coal resources and of brown coal-fired mine mouth thermal power

generation in the central area. Introduction of environmental equipment, however, will become

indispensable, since the brown coal of Ukraine has high sulfur content.

Table; Outline of the Hongsa mine mouth power plant project in Laos

Construction Phase 2011-2016

Power Plant Output 1,878 MW

Lignite Consumption 14.3 Million ton/year

Calorific Value of Lignite 2,491 kcal/kg

Moisture 33.96%

Ash Content 26.25%

Sulfur Content 0.70%

Lignite Reserve 577.4 Million ton

Capital Investment US$ 3,710 Million

Stripping Ratio 3.4 : 1

Electricity Tariff 6.1 UScent/kWh

Loan from 9 Thai Commercial Bank US $2,783 Million

Source: http://www.dmr.go.th/download/lao_thai56/pdf_dat/Hongsa%20Mine%20Mouth%20Power%20Projec.pdf

d. Study of promotion of utilization of steam coal (bituminous coal/subbituminous coal)

The Donetsk area in the eastern region produces 95% of the anthracite coal of Ukraine. And

the supply of anthracite coal is now insufficient, since the political conditions in those regions

are unstable. Therefore, Ukraine recently has been importing anthracite coal from foreign

countries to compensate for the shortage of domestic supply. Although there are six (6)

anthracite coal-fired power plants in the country, 30 to 40 years have passed since some of them

started their commercial operation. When considering an uncertainty of anthracite supply form

the region, it is worthwhile to study the introduction of the steam coal (bituminous and

sub-bituminous coal) fired boiler. There are more sources who can export steam coal in the

world compared with those who can export anthracite coal, and thus the suppliers of the coal

19

can be diversified. In addition, the price of steam coal is lower than that of anthracite coal.

e. Effective use of the coal mine gas

It is said that the gas content of Ukraine’s coal is 20 to 40m3/ton. The coal gas, however, is

hardly used, and although a part of the coal mine gas is utilized for the boilers installed around

the coal mine, 70 to 80% of the coal mines are only emitting the coal mine gas into the

atmosphere2. Coal gas venting before mining improves safety of the coal mine, and in addition

the collected coal mine gas can be effectively utilized as a fuel at around the coal mine. For

example, in Japan, the coal mine gas was used as the city gas in the era when the coal

production volume was very large. Since the effective use of the coal mine gas is already a

proven technology, we would definitely like to propose introducing it.

4-4 Heat supply

According to International Energy Agency (IEA), heat energy consumption accounts for 16%

of the final energy consumption in Ukraine. Although the amount of heat supply has rapidly

decreased from 1990 through 2000, it has leveled off and the state of leveling off has continued

in recent years. The major fuel for heat generation is natural gas. These statistics3, however, do

not include the heat supply from the industry and the individual heating.

When taking a look at the heat supply at home, the heat supply from the district heating

system accounts for 39% of Ukraine, and the district heating system is used mainly in the large

cities. On the other hand, the individual heating using natural gas, electricity, and coal is the

mainstream in the mid- and small-size towns and villages, and accounts for 62% of the country.

2 Power and Heat Cogeneration to Utilize Coal Mine Methane – Ukrainian Experience, Methane Expo 2013 3 IEA, Energy balance 2014

20

Figure; Share of number of households by heating system

note: total number of households: 17 million

Source: Alona Babak, 18 Mar 2015

A. District heat supply

a. Modernization of heat supply infrastructure

The district heating system based on cheap natural gas was developed in the Soviet Union era,

and is still currently being used. The equipment for district heating has deteriorated and has now

become an inefficient heat supply system4 where water leakage occurs since appropriate

maintenance has not been implemented. It is necessary to repair such pipeline and equipment

while taking the measure of future heat demand and its supply method. First of all, accurately

comprehending the conditions of pipeline and equipment is the most urgent need, and especially

identifying and repairing the water leakage parts shall be implemented immediately. In addition,

it goes without saying that higher efficiency for the heat production equipment and lower loss

for the heat transmission & distribution line is required.

The survey found that Kievenergo Company in Kiev City has been implementing

replacement of the heat supply pipeline by itself. Private capital takes the lead of this company

who continues to invest based on understanding that improvement in efficiency of the

equipment results in expansion of profits. Also as for the heat supply business undertaken by the

local public sectors, it is strongly encouraged to invest positively based on “profit and cost

consciousness” in reference to such examples. In some cases, it is worthwhile to study to apply

regulation to the heat supply business, such as establishment of the efficiency standard in the

energy efficiency and conservation law.

4 Heat losses in the heating system reache 45% and in the building 30%. Energy Strategy of Ukraine through 2035, WHITE BOOK OF UKRANIAN ENERGY POLICY

39

73

25

1

41

22

58

53

21

517

46

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

total large cities towns villages

Others (electricity, coal, wood, other)

Indivisual heating

Central heating

21

b. Installation of heat meters, and steady implementation of rate system reform

It is taken for granted that the district heating system is the indispensable public infrastructure

in the city and that consumers can use heat abundantly with a cheap price, and it is in the

situations where no incentive works to control heat utilization. Specifically, consumers can

neither recognize nor control the amount of their heat consumption, since neither heat meter nor

regulator is installed on the demand end, and, in addition, the payment is a fixed amount.

Although the regulations concerning saving energy in the buildings are established, incapability

of comprehending the amount of heat consumption also becomes obstructions to execute the

regulations.

As described above, from various viewpoints, the heat amount measurement and rate system

reform (rate hike and introduction of the measured rate system) on the demand side are now

required. Fortunately, actions for installation of heat meters and revision of the rate system have

already been initiated, and the steady progress of this reform is expected.

c. Selection of the supply method based on the district heat demand

Heat demand density may fall in the future in Ukraine due to influence of population decline,

and accordingly, use of the district heating system may become inefficient in some districts.

Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the future heat demand of the district and to select the

optimal supply method, fuel, and equipment depending on it.

Table; Options of heat supply

* Example of unused low temperature energy (currently utilized in Japan)i. Temperature difference energy; Sewage, river water, groundwater, geothermal heatii. Waste energy; biomass, waste incinerationiii. Exhaust heat energy; subway, factories, power plants and substations

FuelEfficiency of

heat gen.Heat loss in

transmissionRemarks

District heating system(existing major mean )

Natural gas

high large Advantage in very high heat-density area

Small distributed heat system (building scale)

Naturalgas

medium medium Advantage in high heat-density area

Individual boiler / heater(household scale)

Naturalgas

lower than large boiler/heater

small Advantage in low heat-density area

Heat pump system(building scale)

Electricity(i.e. coal , nuke)

Can generate more heat than input electricity

medium Advantage in high heat-density areaCan utilize unutilized energy *

Heat pump system (air conditioner for household)

small Advantage in low heat-density areaNot applicable for extremely cold weather

22

From a larger viewpoint, we would like to propose that heat supply shall be reflected more

clearly in the urban planning from now on. Although it goes without saying, efficiency of

district heat supply becomes high when the heat demand density is high. While population

decline is predicted, it is better to consider using heat effectively by intentionally increasing the

concentration of the cities, i.e., concentration of heat demand. In addition facilities generating

heat, such as the electric power plants, sewerage treatment plants, and garbage incineration

plants, have been conventionally built in remote areas, i.e., the areas where value of the

exhaust heat is low. We, however, would like to propose a paradigm shift that the facilities

generating heat shall be constructed in the areas where heat demand exists such as business area

and populated area.

d. Use of unutilized energy

A district heating system using ‘unutilized energy’ can reduce consumption of the primary

energy by about 20% compared with an individual heating system5 and, in addition, can reduce

CO2 emission in the same way. It is important to match the districts where the unutilized heat

source exists and the districts where the heat demand exists. In addition, the introduction of

CHP (Combined Heat and Power) is also an idea when the demand curve of heat and electric

power looks alike.

It is the use of incineration heat of the garbage that can have especially high potential. Most

of the garbage from each house and office is landfilled and disposal of the garbage itself

becomes a big issue, along with the garbage not being effectively utilized as a resource. We

would like to propose not only building more incineration facilities but also utilizing its exhaust

heat.

Moreover, in Kiev City, Bortnychi sewerage treatment plant is planned to be repaired and

new sludge incinerators to be constructed by ODA of Japan in the near future, and it is

considered a good idea to study the feasibility of the exhaust heat utilization by adopting the

heat pump technology as a model case of this kind of application. Although the heat pump

technology requires higher initial capital expenditure than that of other conventional

technologies, it has higher cost competitiveness in the life cycle including the operating cost,

since it has higher efficiency. The amount of the initial capital expenditure tends to affect

judgment for investment in the situations where financing is difficult, however, the evaluation in

life cycle cost is more important for energy equipment, when considering that energy equipment

has generally a long service life.

5 “The realities of area-wide utilization of unused energy in heat supply and the direction toward u the next generation” Agency for Natural Resources and Energy of Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, March 2008

23

B. Individual heating

For individual heating, improving efficiency of heating appliance is the major theme in the

countermeasures. There is no alternative other than waiting until each home replaces its heating

appliance one after another with a more highly efficient one motivated by a rate hike of the gas

and by education of saving energy. In addition, although it requires even longer time and

expense, improving insulation of the building shall be implemented.

The measure, however, can also be taken so that the heating appliance is updated at no charge

for the low income households who receive preferential subsidy of the gas rate. The largest part

of the gas charge used by the low income household is paid by the gas company. Therefore,

although the expense for replacement of heating appliance temporarily increases burden for the

gas company, the amount of subsidy for the low income household can be reduced if the gas

consumption is significantly reduced by improvement in efficiency. Naftogaz Company

indicates this idea to reduce gas consumption and it is suggested to proceed with this idea under

a careful cost-benefit evaluation.

4-5 Natural gas supply

Since Ukraine has natural gas resources in the country, exploring the possibility of use of

these resources has first priority. Subsequently, the shortage from domestic production will be

supplemented by import.

a. Promotion of development of indigenous natural gas resource

The proved reserve of the natural gas is estimated to be 637Bcm and R/P ratio to be 34.3

years in Ukraine as of the end of 2014 (BP 2015). The production volume for the past 20 years

is about 16 to 19Bcm.

According to IHS6, the natural gas production cost in Ukraine is in the range of about

USD$3.3 to US$5.5/MMBtu depending on the area and the depth of underground reserved. This

cost is US$2.7 to US$6.6/MMBtu cheaper than the price of the natural gas imported through the

pipeline from Europe and Russia from the summer of 2014 through the winter of 2015. In

addition, IEA7 assumes that the import price of the natural gas in the European market in 2040

will be $12.7/MMBtu, which is higher than that in 2013 ($10.6/MMBtu). Although there are

naturally many uncertain factors in the development cost of new resources, the domestically

produced natural gas has generally price competitiveness compared to the imported natural gas,

and may be able to said to have high potentiality to continue to keep its competitiveness in the

future as well.

6 Harnessing Production and Revenue: Toward a new fiscal regime for natural gas in Ukraine, 16 June 2015 7 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014, New Policy Scenario

24

Figure; Comparison of natural gas production/import cost

DDB=Dnipro-Donetsk Basin

Approximately conversion factor: 1Mcm = 35.7MMBtu

Source: IHS (domestic production), Naftogaz (import), World gas intelligence (NBP spot)

Based on this assumption, it goes without saying that, first of all, utmost effort is desired for

developing the untapped domestic resources. It is at least expected that annual production

volume of around 20Bcm, which is the same as present, can be maintained.

Then, what is important for development of domestic resources? It is important to provide an

attractive investment environment for private companies, since development of the

hydro-carbon including the natural gas is implemented by the private companies. Examples are

making the regulatory expenses cheaper such as the tax imposed on the development license,

and enhancing transparency and predictability of the related policies and regulations.

It is desirable to initiate the environmental arrangement as soon as possible, since a long time

is required to implement the processes from exploration of resources up to actual production.

b. Diversification of natural gas import

According to the scenarios we developed, the import requirement of the natural gas in the

future is about 20Bcm annually, although it may vary depending on the degree of economic

growth and improvement in energy efficiency in the future. The following can be described as

the alternatives to supply this 20Bcm.

8.20  8.43 

6.064.00 3.30 

4.84 4.20 

5.29 

3.89 

5.52 

9.74  9.94 

10.91

0 

2 

4 

6 

8 

10 

12 

0.5Bcm 2.8Bcm 0.5Bcm 2.8Bcm 2.8Bcm Europe Russia NBP

DDBshallow

DDBdeep

DDBultra deep

PreCarpatian

Tight gas . Import3Q14‐1Q15

spot2014

$/MMBtu

Opex

Capex

25

Figure; Estimated import requirement of natural gas

The reverse flow from Europe has already been realized, but the problem is the physical

reverse flow (not a contractual backhaul) capability is insufficient. If the risk of the natural gas

import from Russia is high, expansion of the physical reverse flow capability from Europe is

an effective alternative and we recommend proceeding with it. In this case, however,

enhancement of physical capability requires several years, since the investment in the pipelines

and the compressor stations are required on the European side.

Although the alternative that can be used immediately is import from Russia, efforts to

eliminate import of natural gas as soon as possible are now being made because of the high

political risk. It is thought that the import of natural gas from Russia will decrease gradually in

cooperation with the actions to aim for energy independence. We, however, would like to

suggest strategic use of natural gas import from Russia because of the following two reasons

during the transition period to energy independence, i.e. while import of natural gas is

continuing. The essence of energy security is distribution and reduction of the risk based on

diversification. Even the reverse flow from Europe, which is regarded as the ideal measure,

cannot completely eliminate the risk of outage due to, for example, equipment failure. In

addition, the import from Russia can be used as a bargaining chip in the negotiations of the

import price with Europe. If, based on the above, it is considered that maintaining import of

natural gas from Russia will help increase supply stability and reduction of the import cost as a

whole.

In the long term, direct import of LNG also becomes an alternative. LNG can be imported,

for example, from Algeria which is a neighboring country, and also from Nigeria, the United

States, and Qatar if examples of a little further-distance away countries are taken. Moreover,

there is a plan to liquefy the natural gas in Georgia that is produced on the Caspian Sea coast.

Although construction of the re-gasification terminal requires a lot of expenses, it greatly

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2013

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Bcm

actual

High growth

Low growth

High efficiency

26

contributes to risk reduction based on diversification of supply sources. Therefore, we would

like to propose studying it as a long-term alternative.

Table; Natural gas import options

Availability (amount)

Affordability (cost)

Political risk

Import from Europe

Medium → High - Sufficient backhaul - Expand physical rev.

Medium - Comparable to import from Russia

Low

Import from Russia

High - Sufficient capacity

Medium - Comparable to import from Europe

High

Direct LNG import

?? - Need investigation - Diverse source country

High - Higher regas CAPEX - Comparable to pipeline gas import from Europe

Medium - depends on import source country

regas = LNG regasification terminal

c. Effective utilization of the underground storage capability

Amount of working gas volume of 31Bcm of the storage facilities far exceeds the annual

required volume of import of about 20Bcm. If sufficient quantity of the natural gas can be

stored in summer when there is no heating demand, supply-demand balance of the natural gas in

winter heating season can be greatly eased. We would like to propose Ukraine to make full use

of this favorable condition and to stabilize the natural gas supply in winter.

In addition, if the import price of natural gas comes to reflect the supply-demand balance of

every season, it would also be possible to supply the natural gas with a cheaper price by using

the difference in price between summer and winter.

Figure; Underground storage capacity and its use (May 2014-Mar 2015)

Source: MECI, Naftogaz, Gas Infrastructure Europe

Withdrawal, 8.9

Russian import, 2.7

Summer injection, 8.1

Deficit, 3.5

utilized, 9

un‐utilized, 22

0 

5 

10 

15 

20 

25 

30 

35 

Winter requirement Summer injection Capacity

Storage

Bcm

Sufficient storage capacity to supplement Russian import

27

4-6 Oil supply

The production volume of crude oil tends to decrease every year, and the operating rate of the

refinery also remains very low. Therefore, most of the oil product supply has been in the

situation of relying on import.

a. Create better investment environment to attract investment

Maintaining crude oil production is desired, and for that purpose we would like to propose

creating better investment environment to promote oil exploration and development by the

private companies in the same way that natural gas is promoted.

b. Study of modernization of the oil refineries

Theoretically, producing the oil products in the country can retain the added value at home

rather than importing them, and employment also increases. On the other hand, the oil products

are international commodities, and domestic products are always exposed to price competition

with imported products. If the cheap domestic crude oil is abundantly supplied, lower price oil

products can be supplied. There is, however, an uncertainty to expect too much cheap domestic

crude oil production, and thus it is necessary to enhance the price competitiveness to maintain

the domestic refineries, in other word, it is required to modernize the refineries or to invest in

new facilities. The Kremenchuk ORE, which has comparatively large refining capability, can be

seen as a candidate of modernization.

The priority of this countermeasure, however, becomes low based on the consideration that

the present oil supply does not have any problems, since a large amount of investment, far more

than that for a power plant, is required for modernization or new construction of the refineries.

Therefore, we would like to propose restoring the refining capability of the country as a mid-

and long-term effort.

c. Enhancement of the countermeasures against demand

The countermeasures against demand become important if the improvement on the supply

side cannot be expected at least in the short term. In addition, large effect of import expenditure

reduction can be expected by the demand control, since oil products are expensive energy.

It probably becomes necessary to promote the use of the public transportation and to control

the use of private cars especially in the urban areas, since most of the oil demand is gasoline and

diesel for automobiles. As an incentive for using public transportation, the following are cited as

examples; imposing tax (tax increase) on the gasoline, the diesel, and possession of the

automobile, and regulating parking in the city areas. Moreover, encouraging dissemination of

fuel efficient cars can be considered as an alternative by reducing the tax amount of the cars

28

with good fuel efficiency.

29

Chapter 5. Financing

Securing of funds is indispensable to realize various plans. We would like to propose what

kind of measures can be deliberated based on the principles of self-financing by the private

companies and beneficiary charge.

a. Create a better investment environment

It is the government’s role to create an environment where the private companies can

accomplish investment. This environmental preparation includes elimination of entry barriers

and maintaining the stability of the policy and the system including a taxation system that

influences investment decisions. Positive information disclosure in English to the foreign capital

is also an important element.

In addition, since the recovery of expenses (profits obtained) is the biggest concern for the

investors, revision of the energy rate described later is extremely important from this standpoint.

b. Revision of the rate to one reflecting cost

It is a fundamental principle to abolish the subsidy of the energy rate. If the energy rate can be

raised to the cost collectable level, the private energy companies can implement the necessary

investment on their own initiatives. These efforts have already been started and are expected to

be steadily advanced.

If the energy rate becomes set at the appropriate level, there is a possibility to apply ESCO8

business model. In this model, the virtuous circle can be expected where energy efficiency is

improved while the private companies can make profits.

Figure; Basic concept of ESCO business

8 Energy Service Company: ESCO provides the services to reduce the energy cost of the partner company. The profits that the partner company obtains by the cost reduction are shared by ESCO and the partner company.

energy

cost

100 50

25

25

before after

cost reduction through eff. improvement

for ESCO

for facility owner

profit share

30

c. Financing by the earmarked tax and the surcharge

In order to recover cost of investment which has the strong public nature, the method of

collecting a small charge from all beneficiaries by the earmarked tax or addition of surcharge to

the energy rate is effective. This method can be applied to many of the energy infrastructures, as

they are considered to have a high public nature.

Table; Example of surcharge and special purpose tax

Surcharge

for renovation of electricity grid

- Charge to all consumers

- Add on to electricity bill

- UAH 0.01 /kWh consumption

⇒ UAH 1.47 billion/yr (approx. US$ 125 million)

Surcharge

for renovation of district heating

system

- Charge to all household consumers

- Add on to heat bill

- UAH 1 /month/bill

⇒ UAH 78.6 million/yr (approx. US$ 6.7 million)

Special tax

for power station development

- Charge to all power generating companies

- Collect money relative to actual generation [kWh]

- UAH 0.01 /kWh generation

⇒ UAH 1.94 billion/yr (approx. US$ 164 million)

* Total electricity generation in 2013: 194 billion kWh

Total electricity consumption in 2013: 147 billion kWh

Number of households: 6.55 million

Average exchange rate in 2014: US$1=UAH11.8

d. Use of the public companies

Privatization of public companies is progressing for the purpose of improving economic

efficiency in Ukraine. The role, however, that the public company can still play is remained in

realizing the large amount of investment which the energy sector needs.

Construction of a new electric power plant especially requires a large amount of funds, and if

electricity charges are intended to be controlled at a low rate, the payback period cannot but

become long. We would like to propose keeping exist the public companies for the purpose of

power plants development as a short- and mid-term measure, since the high-risk investment for

the private companies is considered to be left behind.

Moreover, concerning financing from foreign country, the use of ODA is preferable where a

low interest and long-term loan is available. It is, however, the government or the related

institutions and not the private companies that can generally receive the funds from ODA

31

scheme. Therefore, the public companies can also play an important role as receiving companies

of ODA.

This proposal is based on experiences of the postwar period of Japan. At that time major

Japanese electric power companies were private companies. Therefore, they did not have

sufficient funds, and could not implement sufficiently electric power development that was

needed for postwar reconstruction. At that time the government established the national electric

power company, and has implemented construction on large-scale hydroelectric power stations

and coal-fired power plants by integrating the capital that the nation and the private electric

power companies invest. This company, at present, has finished the role, is completely

privatized, and has continued to exist as a wholesale electric power company.

Table; Advantage of public company

Smoother

policy implementation

- Government can directly control investment strategy

More stable

operation

- Precondition; change to cost reflected energy tariff

- Higher credit rating underwritten by government

Easier

financial arrangement

- Available lower interest rate loan because of higher credit rating

- Able to accept ODA loan

Figure; Possible scheme of public power company

Foreign country

Bank

Private power company

Publicpower company

BuildNew power station

ODA loan

loan

special tax

share holding

wholesale of electricity

32

Chapter 6. Conclusion

Various proposals were derived through the demand outlook and the study of a supply plan. It

is ideal to implement all of these measures without delay, but the resources, such as available

funds and talented people, are restricted, and, therefore, the priority of the proposals shall be

defined. At the time of postwar reconstruction, Japan defined the coal industry and iron & steel

industry as the priority sector for national support, and preferentially supplied various materials,

equipment, talented people, and funds in those sectors. As a result, these two industries became

driving forces resulting in achievement of the economic reconstruction. Although various

measures are required to strengthen the energy supply-demand structure in Ukraine, in the first

step, we would like to propose defining and concentrating on the priority sector that becomes a

driving force of renovation.

As summarized at the beginning of this report, the following three issues can be seen in

which Ukraine shall immediately take measures against.

・ Inefficient energy use due to deteriorated energy infrastructure and energy rate structure

lower than energy production cost

・ Excessive dependence on Russia for the natural gas supply

・ Uncertainty of the anthracite coal supply

What measures shall be preferentially taken to address these issues? We would like to

propose the following three items as priority areas, considering that the initial actions towards

reasonable energy rate structure and expansion of reverse flow capability are already

progressing.

・ Efficiency improvement of the existing coal-fired power plants

・ Improving energy efficiency in district heating system

・ Steady promotion of energy system reform toward the reasonable energy rate

structure

The first, “Efficiency improvement of the coal-fired power plants”, becomes an initial

measure to be taken while aging of the existing coal-fired power plants is progressing and the

supply stability of anthracite coal from Eastern regions is threatened. A replacement of

anthracite-fired plant to bituminous / sub-bituminous coal and expansion of brown coal

utilization will be important measures to be taken in the medium- and long-term as it can

33

remove uncertainty of the coal supply.

Also concerning the expansion of brown coal utilization, although success or failure of

development is unknown, utilization of mine mouth electric power generation and gasification

technology can contribute to the stability of the electric power supply.

The issue is the size of the investment amount, but as proposed in Chapter 5, securing the

funds with high priority by every means necessary including use of public companies are

necessary.

The second, “Improving energy efficiency in district heating system” becomes an

important measure to be taken, which could improve the supply-demand balance of natural gas

substantially by replacing existing district heat system which is aging and enhancing energy

efficiency. As indicated in the efficiency scenario of the demand outlook, we would like to

expect Ukraine to move to enhance investment for district heat system so that Ukraine could

extract the potential of energy efficiency.

Furthermore concerning diversification of the fuel for heat generation, we would like to

especially recommend to recognize the value of “waste power generation” and to utilize it to the

utmost degree resulting in contributing to environmental improvement in the city.

The third, “Steady promotion of energy system reform toward the reasonable energy

rate structure”, is a necessary precondition for all actions in connection with renovation of the

energy supply-demand structure. Appropriate energy price will encourage voluntary energy

saving, and also help secure financial resources necessary for investment in efficient energy

infrastructure. Energy price reform needs careful implementation as higher energy price will

affect industrial competitiveness and the life of the people. However, it shall be promoted

steadily, because it contributes to strengthening the Ukraine economy in the future.

Developed countries have drastically improved the energy supply-demand structure triggered

by the oil crisis of the 1970s. The history tells that although Ukraine at present has many

challenges in every aspect of energy supply chain, the country can strengthen its energy

structure by changing this critical situation into an unprecedented opportunity. Making the

opportunity into a bright future depends on Ukraine’s own actions ahead.

Annex

Summary Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Energy consumption (Mtoe)

Total primary energy supply 252.0 133.8 142.9 132.4 122.7 114.9 107.6 118.7 125.1 135.5 0.8% 103.5 109.9 112.2 116.3 0.1% 99.4 101.8 100.2 100.8 ‐0.6%

Coal 83.0 38.5 37.3 38.3 42.7 41.4 32.1 38.3 39.9 45.7 0.4% 31.4 35.1 34.8 37.1 ‐0.5% 27.6 29.2 27.0 27.6 ‐1.8%

Oil 58.5 11.9 14.4 13.2 11.6 9.9 9.7 11.0 12.2 13.6 1.5% 9.2 9.9 10.5 11.0 0.5% 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.5 ‐0.7%

Natural gas 91.8 62.3 67.4 55.2 43.0 39.4 34.4 37.8 40.5 43.6 0.5% 33.3 35.1 36.3 37.5 ‐0.2% 32.0 32.4 32.3 32.2 ‐0.9%

Nuclear 19.9 20.2 23.1 23.4 23.7 21.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 1.3% 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 1.0% 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 1.3%

Hydro 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3% 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3% 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3%

Solar/wind/other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 12.2% 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 12.2% 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 12.2%

Biofuels and waste 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 ‐0.2% 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 ‐0.4% 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 ‐0.7%

Electricity ‐2.4 ‐0.3 ‐0.7 ‐0.3 ‐1.0 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 0.0% ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 0.0% ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 0.0%

Power generation 80.6 43.8 48.5 50.7 54.1 51.1 50.0 54.5 57.0 62.9 0.9% 48.4 51.1 51.8 54.4 0.3% 47.2 48.6 48.0 49.5 ‐0.2%

Coal 34.6 14.3 13.9 19.2 22.7 22.2 13.9 18.1 19.7 25.4 0.6% 14.0 16.5 16.4 18.8 ‐0.8% 11.0 12.2 10.8 12.1 ‐2.7%

Oil 12.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.4%

Natural gas 12.5 8.1 10.3 6.2 6.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.0% 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.1% 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 ‐0.1%

Nuclear 19.9 20.2 23.1 23.4 23.7 21.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 1.3% 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 1.0% 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 1.3%

Hydro 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3% 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3% 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.3%

Solar/wind/other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 12.2% 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 12.2% 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 12.2%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0%

Heat supply 49.3 23.8 17.6 10.6 9.7 9.6 9.4 10.6 11.7 12.8 1.3% 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.6 0.4% 8.5 8.8 8.7 8.7 ‐0.5%

Coal 0.9 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ‐1.1% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ‐1.1% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 ‐1.1%

Oil 8.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.9%

Natural gas 39.7 22.8 17.3 9.3 8.6 8.1 8.2 9.5 10.5 11.7 1.7% 7.8 8.5 9.0 9.4 0.7% 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.5 ‐0.4%

Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐1.9%

Other energy sector 24.0 17.8 18.8 24.7 13.7 11.8 12.1 13.4 13.5 13.6 0.6% 11.6 12.4 12.4 12.4 0.2% 11.1 11.5 11.1 10.7 ‐0.4%

Coal 21.9 14.0 11.1 9.3 9.2 8.9 8.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 0.4% 8.5 9.1 9.0 8.9 0.0% 8.0 8.3 7.8 7.4 ‐0.8%

Oil ‐6.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 ‐0.8 ‐1.7 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐0.3% ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐0.3% ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐0.3%

Natural gas 4.3 1.3 3.7 10.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.5% 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4% 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ‐0.1% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ‐0.1% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ‐0.1%

Heat 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.4% 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.2% 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 ‐0.2%

Electricity 3.7 2.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 0.9% 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 0.4% 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.2%

Losses 14.6 8.6 8.0 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.3 1.0% 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 0.3% 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 0.0%

Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0%

Oil 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Natural gas 2.2 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Heat 10.3 4.5 4.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7% 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.2% 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 ‐0.5%

Electricity 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 1.5% 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 0.6% 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.2%

Total final consumption 150.2 72.3 82.8 74.0 73.1 69.6 62.5 69.5 74.8 81.0 0.7% 60.0 64.0 66.5 68.8 0.1% 57.4 58.8 58.9 58.8 ‐0.6%

Coal 25.6 10.0 12.0 8.4 9.6 8.7 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.2 0.3% 7.6 8.2 8.2 8.2 ‐0.3% 7.2 7.4 7.1 6.8 ‐1.1%

Oil 42.7 10.6 12.9 12.2 12.2 11.3 11.1 12.4 13.6 15.0 1.3% 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.4 0.4% 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.9 ‐0.6%

Natural gas 33.2 28.5 34.5 28.4 26.6 24.9 19.6 21.7 23.3 25.2 0.1% 18.8 19.9 20.6 21.3 ‐0.7% 18.0 18.3 18.2 18.1 ‐1.5%

Biofuels and waste 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 ‐0.2% 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 ‐0.5% 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 ‐1.1%

Heat 30.7 13.3 12.6 12.5 11.9 11.7 11.2 12.3 13.2 14.3 0.9% 10.9 11.5 11.9 12.3 0.2% 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 ‐0.4%

Electricity 17.7 9.8 10.6 11.5 11.8 11.8 11.4 13.1 14.6 16.2 1.4% 11.0 12.0 12.9 13.7 0.7% 10.7 11.5 12.1 12.6 0.3%

Industry 79.2 32.8 33.2 25.3 24.8 21.9 20.2 23.0 24.3 26.0 0.8% 19.2 20.9 21.5 22.2 0.1% 18.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 ‐0.8%

Coal 18.0 7.3 8.4 7.2 8.3 7.4 6.8 7.6 7.6 7.7 0.1% 6.4 6.9 6.9 6.9 ‐0.4% 6.1 6.3 6.0 5.7 ‐1.2%

Oil 9.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2% 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.3% 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 ‐0.6%

Natural gas 23.3 11.9 10.8 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.9 4.5 4.7 5.0 0.6% 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.3 ‐0.1% 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 ‐0.9%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Heat 16.4 7.1 6.8 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.6 4.1 4.5 5.0 1.1% 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1 0.2% 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 ‐0.7%

Electricity 12.5 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.7 6.3 6.9 1.5% 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.8 0.6% 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 ‐0.2%

Transport 19.4 10.4 11.8 12.6 11.4 11.3 10.9 11.8 12.8 13.8 0.9% 10.4 10.9 11.3 11.7 0.1% 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.5 ‐0.8%

Coal 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.4%

Oil 18.1 6.7 7.7 8.5 8.6 8.2 8.0 8.8 9.5 10.3 1.1% 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.6 0.2% 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.6 ‐0.9%

Natural gas 0.0 2.9 3.2 3.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 0.5% 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 ‐0.2% 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 ‐0.9%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.7% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.6%

Electricity 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ‐0.1% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ‐0.1% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ‐0.1%

Other 45.1 27.9 29.2 30.5 30.7 31.5 26.3 28.6 30.7 33.2 0.2% 25.5 26.7 27.7 28.5 ‐0.1% 24.5 24.7 24.6 24.5 ‐0.8%

Coal 7.6 2.7 2.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.2% 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 ‐0.2% 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 ‐1.7%

Oil 9.1 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1% 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.1% 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.3%

Natural gas 9.9 13.7 15.0 14.5 14.4 14.3 9.5 10.1 10.5 11.1 ‐1.2% 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 ‐1.8% 8.6 8.3 7.8 7.4 ‐3.0%

Biofuels and waste 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 ‐0.5% 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 ‐0.8% 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 ‐2.0%

Heat 14.2 6.1 5.8 7.9 7.3 7.8 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.3 0.8% 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.2 0.3% 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 ‐0.3%

Electricity 3.9 3.8 4.1 5.1 5.6 6.0 5.8 6.6 7.5 8.6 1.6% 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 0.8% 5.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 0.7%

Residential 33.1 24.4 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.5 18.6 19.6 20.3 21.2 ‐0.5% 18.1 18.5 18.6 18.7 ‐1.0% 17.3 16.8 16.2 15.6 ‐1.8%

Coal 5.5 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ‐0.2% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 ‐0.4% 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 ‐2.1%

Oil 3.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐2.1%

Natural gas 8.7 12.8 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.5 9.1 9.7 10.1 10.6 ‐1.1% 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.1 ‐1.8% 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.0 ‐2.9%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 ‐0.7% 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 ‐0.9% 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 ‐2.1%

Heat 14.2 6.1 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 ‐0.2% 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 ‐0.4% 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.6 ‐1.1%

Electricity 1.5 2.6 2.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.6 1.1% 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 0.4% 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 0.4%

Commercial 1.2 1.6 2.2 4.6 5.0 5.7 5.3 6.3 7.2 8.3 1.7% 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.8 3.0% 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.4 2.7%

Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐0.2%

Oil 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐0.2%

Natural gas 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ‐5.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 ‐6.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 ‐7.7%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.2%

Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 2.1% 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 1.1% 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 0.7%

Electricity 0.0 0.8 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.4 2.2% 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 1.3% 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 1.3%

Agriculture, etc. 10.7 1.9 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 2.2% 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 1.2% 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.3%

Coal 2.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3%

Oil 6.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.2% 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.2% 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.3%

Natural gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.2% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.2% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3%

Biofuels and waste 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3%

Heat 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.2% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.2% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3%

Electricity 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 2.2% 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2% 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3%

Non‐energy use 6.5 1.2 8.6 5.6 6.1 4.9 5.1 6.0 7.0 8.1 2.3% 4.9 5.4 6.0 6.5 1.3% 4.9 5.4 6.0 6.5 1.3%

Coal 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.3% 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.3% 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.3%

Oil 6.5 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.3% 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3% 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3%

Natural gas 0.0 0.0 5.5 4.1 4.9 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.6 6.5 2.3% 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.3 1.3% 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.3 1.3%

Electricity generation (TWh)

Total 298.6 171.3 185.9 188.6 198.4 191.2 189.5 213.7 234.6 258.5 1.4% 182.2 197.2 208.9 220.1 0.6% 178.3 189.5 197.3 204.5 0.3%

Coal 114.0 51.5 50.0 69.5 80.4 78.5 48.6 69.7 81.1 102.9 1.2% 48.1 60.1 62.3 71.3 ‐0.4% 37.4 45.8 44.1 49.1 ‐2.1%

Oil 48.0 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ‐1.6% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ‐1.6% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ‐1.6%

Natural gas 49.9 29.9 34.2 15.7 16.0 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 0.1% 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 0.1% 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.3 0.0%

Nuclear 76.2 77.3 88.8 89.2 90.1 83.8 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 1.3% 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.6 1.0% 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 1.3%

Hydro 10.5 11.3 12.4 13.2 10.5 13.8 11.8 11.8 14.7 14.7 0.3% 11.8 11.8 14.7 14.7 0.3% 11.8 11.8 14.7 14.7 0.3%

Solar/wind/other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 3.5 6.6 13.1 15.3 12.2% 3.5 6.6 13.1 15.3 12.2% 3.5 6.6 13.1 15.3 12.2%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0%

Macro economy Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

GDP

GDP (UHA billion), nominal 176 457 1,079 1,405 1,465 2,377 3,382 4,635 6,168 6.8% 2,261 3,052 3,967 4,954 5.7% 2,261 3,052 3,967 4,954 5.7%

Annual Growth Rate nominal 30% 28% 14.0% 8.0% 4.3% 8.0% 6.6% 6.1% 5.1% 6.6% 5.6% 4.9% 3.7% 6.6% 5.6% 4.9% 3.7%

GDP deflator (2010=100) 24.0 42.9 100.0 123.1 128.4 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3%

Annual Inflation, GDP deflator (%)  23.1% 24.1% 13.7% 7.7% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0%

GDP (UAH2010 billion) 734 1,066 1,079 1,141 1,141 1,199 1,409 1,633 1,893 2.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3%

Annual growth rate (real) 5.9% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

Real GDP yearly change 105.9 103.1 100.3 100.2 100.0

UAH per $US (2010) 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 0.0% 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 0.0% 7.936 7.936 7.936 7.936 0.0%

GDP (US$2013 billion) 92 134 136 144 144 151 178 206 239 2.3% 144 160 176 192 1.3% 144 160 176 192 1.3%

Inflation

Ukraine 28.2% 13.5% 9.4% 0.6% ‐0.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0%

United States 3.4% 3.4% 1.6% 2.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

European Union 2.2% 2.2% 1.6% 2.5% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Exchange rate, real

UAH per $US 5.440 5.125 7.936 7.991 7.993 7.993 7.993 7.993 7.993 0.0% 7.993 7.993 7.993 7.993 0.0% 7.993 7.993 7.993 7.993 0.0%

UAH per Euro 5.012 6.373 10.510 10.267 10.613 10.613 10.613 10.613 10.613 0.0% 10.613 10.613 10.613 10.613 0.0% 10.613 10.613 10.613 10.613 0.0%

Exchange rate, nominal (MER)

UAH per $US 5.4402 5.1247 7.9356 7.991 7.993 14.541 15.946 17.071 17.75 3.7% 14.541 15.946 17.071 17.75 3.7% 14.541 15.946 17.071 17.75 3.7%

UAH per Euro 5.0122 6.3731 10.51 10.267 10.613 19.291 21.156 22.648 23.55 3.7% 19.291 21.156 22.648 23.55 3.7% 19.291 21.156 22.648 23.55 3.7%Ratio of rates (US/Euro) 0.9213 1.2436 1.3244 1.2849 1.3277 1.3267 1.3267 1.3267 1.3267 0.0% 1.3267 1.3267 1.3267 1.3267 0.0% 1.3267 1.3267 1.3267 1.3267 0.0%

Population and Households

Population (millions) 51.8 49.4 47.3 46.0 45.6 45.6 43.6 42.0 40.3 38.6 ‐0.7% 43.6 42.0 40.3 38.6 ‐0.7% 43.6 42.0 40.3 38.6 ‐0.7%

Housing Stock (millions) 17.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2% 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2% 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2%

Persons per household 2.94 2.61 2.47 2.38 2.36 2.35 2.27 2.21 2.16 2.11 ‐0.5% 2.27 2.21 2.16 2.11 ‐0.5% 2.27 2.21 2.16 2.11 ‐0.5%

Disposable Personal Income

Nominal (UAH billion) 298 848 1,149 1,215 1,972 2,806 3,845 5,117 6.8% 1,875 2,532 3,291 4,110 5.7% 1,875 2,532 3,291 4,110 5.7%

Ratio DPI/GDP (nominal) 0.65 0.79 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83

Per capita (UAH thousand) 6 18 25 27 45 67 95 132 7.5% 43 60 82 106 6.5% 43 60 82 106 6.5%

Per capita (UAH2010 thousand) 14.8 18.5 20.5 20.8 22.8 27.8 33.6 40.7 3.1% 21.7 25.1 28.8 32.7 2.1% 21.7 25.1 28.8 32.7 2.1%

Growth rate per capita (previous year = 1.0) 1.142 1.131 1.082 1.016 1.045 1.038 1.039 1.039 1.032 1.028 1.027 1.026 1.032 1.028 1.027 1.026

Deflator (2010=100) 24.0 42.9 100.0 123.1 128.4 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3%

Energy production

MT Bit. Coal equiva (.533) 162.9 68.2 65.1 63.3 75.5 76.3 65.7 65.7 62.9 60.0 ‐1.1% 65.7 65.7 62.9 60.0 ‐1.1% 65.7 65.7 62.9 60.0 ‐1.1%

Oil ('000B/d) .. .. ..

Natural gas (BCM at 20°C) (1.31) 29.6 19.6 22.8 20.2 20.2 21.0 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.2 1.0% 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.2 1.0% 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.2 1.0%

Coal (ktoe) 86,808 36,345 34,688 33,716 40,256 40,663 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1% 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1% 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1%

Oil (ktoe) 5,274 3,707 4,392 3,590 3,414 3,167 3,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 1.1% 3,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 1.1% 3,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 1.1%

Natural gas (ktoe) 22,593 14,996 17,432 15,426 15,403 16,022 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 1.0% 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 1.0% 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 1.0%

Energy prices Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

Εxcl. VAT (20%) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Exchange rate, nominal (MER)

UAH per $US 5.440 5.125 7.936 7.991 7.993 14.541 15.946 17.071 17.750 3.7% 14.541 15.946 17.071 17.750 3.7% 14.541 15.946 17.071 17.750 3.7%

UAH per Euro 5.012 6.373 10.510 10.267 10.613 19.291 21.156 22.648 23.550 3.7% 19.291 21.156 22.648 23.550 3.7% 19.291 21.156 22.648 23.550 3.7%

Electricity (UAH/kWh)  ‐‐‐Scheduled‐‐‐

Industry   0.87 2.43 2.94 3.48 3.99 7.2% 2.43 2.94 3.48 3.99 7.2% 2.43 2.94 3.48 3.99 7.2%

Residential  0.25 2.43 2.94 3.48 3.99 13.3% 2.43 2.94 3.48 3.99 13.3% 2.43 2.94 3.48 3.99 13.3%

Natural gas (UAH/m3)

Industry 2.27 9.51 11.96 14.82 17.32 9.7% 9.51 11.96 14.82 17.32 9.7% 9.51 11.96 14.82 17.32 9.7%

Residential  0.61 9.51 11.96 14.82 17.32 16.4% 9.51 11.96 14.82 17.32 16.4% 9.51 11.96 14.82 17.32 16.4%

European prices

Industry (US$/1,000 cm) 550 654 750 868 976 2.6% 654 750 868 976 2.6% 654 750 868 976 2.6%

Prices

Industry, electricity (UA 9E‐05 10,119 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2%

Residential, electricity ( 9E‐05 2,962 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 13.3% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 13.3% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 13.3%

Industry, natural gas (UA0.0013 1,736 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7%

Residential, natural gas  0.0013 469 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 16.4% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 16.4% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 16.4%

Fossil fuel import prices ‐‐‐ IEA Current Policies Scenario

OECD Steam coal ($2013/tonne) 86 107 112 117 122 1.6% 107 112 117 122 1.6% 107 112 117 122 1.6%

Crude oil ($2013/bbl) 102 116 128 139 145 1.6% 116 128 139 145 1.6% 116 128 139 145 1.6%

Natural gas ($2013/Mbtu) 10.6 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.6 1.1% 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.6 1.1% 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.6 1.1%

OECD Steam coal (UAH/toe) 982 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8%

Crude oil (UAH/toe) 5,590 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8%

Natural gas (UAH/toe) 3,362 7,781 10,225 13,162 15,798 7.3% 7,781 10,225 13,162 15,798 7.3% 7,781 10,225 13,162 15,798 7.3%

Natural gas ($2013/1,000 cm) at 36 MBtu/1,000 cm 382 414 443 475 490 1.1% 414 443 475 490 1.1% 414 443 475 490 1.1%

Natural gas ($/1,000 cm) at 36 MBtu/1,000 cm 382 485 582 699 807 3.5% 485 582 699 807 3.5% 485 582 699 807 3.5%

OECD Europe, natural gas for industry ($/toe) 503 576 606

OECD Europe, natural gas for household ($/toe) 958 1,049 1,096

OECD Europe, natural gas for industry ($/1,000 cm) at 36 MBtu/1, 457 522 550

OECD Europe, natural gas for household ($/1,000 cm) at 36 MBtu/ 869 952 994

OECD Europe, electricity for industry ($/MWh) 138 147 157

OECD Europe, electricity for household ($/MWh) 220 233 252

Industry Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

GDP (UAH2010 billion) 734 1,066 1,079 1,141 1,141 1,199 1,409 1,633 1,893 2.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3%

Real GDP, AAGR 5.9% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

Autonomous efficiency gains 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Prices

GDP deflator (2010=100) 24.0 42.9 100.0 123.1 128.4 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3%

OECD Steam coal (UAH/toe) 982 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8%

Crude oil (UAH/toe) 5,590 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8%

Industry, natural gas (UAH/toe) 1,736 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7%

Industry, electricity (UAH/toe) 10,119 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2%

Chemical Incomee Priceelas city

Coal 195 0 4 16 59 12 11 13 14 17 1.5% 10 11 12 13 0.5% 10 10 11 11 ‐0.4%

Oil 162 0 1 108 114 24 22 25 29 33 1.5% 21 23 25 27 0.5% 20 21 21 22 ‐0.4%

Natural gas 0 0 600 328 395 291 264 306 349 400 1.5% 251 276 299 322 0.5% 238 250 259 266 ‐0.4%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0%

Heat 0 0 0 1,221 1,361 1,084 983 1,139 1,300 1,492 1.5% 935 1,027 1,112 1,198 0.5% 886 930 963 992 ‐0.4%

Non‐electricity 1 ‐0.2 357 0 606 1,673 1,931 1,412 1,281 1,483 1,693 1,943 1.5% 1,218 1,338 1,449 1,561 0.5% 1,154 1,212 1,254 1,292 ‐0.4%

Electricity 1 ‐0.1 1,606 558 589 426 489 376 370 432 499 575 2.0% 352 390 427 462 0.9% 333 353 370 383 0.1%

Total 1,963 558 1,194 2,100 2,420 1,788 1,651 1,916 2,191 2,518 1.6% 1,570 1,728 1,876 2,023 0.6% 1,487 1,566 1,624 1,674 ‐0.3%

Non‐electricity proxy price (UAH/toe) 2,429 7,550 9,599 11,977 14,091 7,550 9,599 11,977 14,091 7,550 9,599 11,977 14,091

Iron and steel Incomee Priceelas city

Coal 10,932 5,679 7,113 5,980 6,843 6,659 6,052 6,798 6,690 6,606 0.0% 5,755 6,194 6,095 6,018 ‐0.5% 5,452 5,610 5,278 4,982 ‐1.3%

Oil 929 0 372 255 178 130 118 133 131 129 0.0% 112 121 119 117 ‐0.5% 106 110 103 97 ‐1.3%

Natural gas 0 0 5,639 4,160 3,132 2,451 2,227 2,502 2,463 2,431 0.0% 2,118 2,280 2,244 2,215 ‐0.5% 2,007 2,065 1,943 1,834 ‐1.3%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 1,148 1,130 1,032 938 1,054 1,037 1,024 0.0% 892 960 945 933 ‐0.5% 845 869 818 772 ‐1.3%

Non‐electricity 1 ‐0.2 11,861 5,679 13,124 11,547 11,283 10,272 9,335 10,487 10,320 10,190 0.0% 8,877 9,554 9,403 9,284 ‐0.5% 8,410 8,654 8,142 7,685 ‐1.3%

Electricity 1 ‐0.1 3,618 2,118 2,364 2,183 2,029 1,822 1,792 2,034 2,024 2,014 0.5% 1,704 1,853 1,844 1,835 0.0% 1,615 1,679 1,597 1,519 ‐0.8%

Total 15,478 7,797 15,487 13,730 13,312 12,094 11,127 12,521 12,345 12,204 0.0% 10,581 11,408 11,247 11,119 ‐0.4% 10,025 10,332 9,739 9,204 ‐1.2%

Non‐electricity proxy price (UAH/toe) 1,296 3,994 5,097 6,364 7,594 3,994 5,097 6,364 7,594 3,994 5,097 6,364 7,594

Other industries Incomee Priceelas city

Coal 6,856 1,621 1,240 1,192 1,408 776 696 801 911 1,042 1.3% 661 723 780 837 0.3% 627 655 675 693 ‐0.5%

Oil 7,878 1,206 1,258 998 954 874 783 902 1,026 1,174 1.3% 745 814 878 943 0.3% 706 737 760 780 ‐0.5%

Natural gas 23,289 11,949 4,581 1,949 1,745 1,618 1,450 1,670 1,899 2,173 1.3% 1,379 1,507 1,625 1,745 0.3% 1,307 1,365 1,407 1,445 ‐0.5%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 37 45 37 37 37 37 37 0.0% 37 37 37 37 0.0% 37 37 37 37 0.0%

Heat 16,422 7,133 6,759 2,256 2,052 1,835 1,641 1,896 2,160 2,477 1.4% 1,559 1,707 1,844 1,982 0.4% 1,475 1,542 1,591 1,635 ‐0.5%

Non‐electricity 1 ‐0.2 54,446 21,909 13,839 6,433 6,204 5,140 4,607 5,306 6,033 6,903 1.3% 4,381 4,788 5,164 5,545 0.3% 4,151 4,336 4,471 4,590 ‐0.5%

Electricity 1 ‐0.1 7,278 2,510 2,698 3,059 2,908 2,840 2,793 3,266 3,767 4,346 2.0% 2,656 2,947 3,225 3,491 0.9% 2,517 2,669 2,792 2,890 0.1%

Total 61,724 24,419 16,537 9,492 9,112 7,982 7,400 8,572 9,801 11,249 1.6% 7,037 7,734 8,388 9,036 0.6% 6,667 7,005 7,263 7,480 ‐0.3%

Non‐electricity proxy price (UAH/toe) 2,373 7,839 10,235 13,002 15,542 7,839 10,235 13,002 15,542 7,839 10,235 13,002 15,542

Total industry

Coal 17,984 7,300 8,357 7,189 8,310 7,447 6,758 7,612 7,616 7,664 0.1% 6,426 6,928 6,887 6,869 ‐0.4% 6,089 6,275 5,964 5,686 ‐1.2%

Oil 8,969 1,206 1,631 1,361 1,246 1,028 923 1,060 1,185 1,336 1.2% 878 958 1,022 1,087 0.3% 832 867 885 900 ‐0.6%

Natural gas 23,289 11,949 10,821 6,437 5,272 4,360 3,942 4,478 4,710 5,005 0.6% 3,748 4,063 4,168 4,282 ‐0.1% 3,551 3,680 3,609 3,545 ‐0.9%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 41 46 38 38 38 38 38 0.0% 38 38 38 38 0.0% 38 38 38 38 0.0%

Heat 16,422 7,133 6,759 4,625 4,543 3,951 3,562 4,088 4,497 4,993 1.1% 3,386 3,694 3,901 4,113 0.2% 3,206 3,342 3,372 3,398 ‐0.7%

Non‐electricity 66,663 27,588 27,568 19,653 19,418 16,824 15,223 17,276 18,046 19,036 0.6% 14,476 15,680 16,015 16,389 ‐0.1% 13,715 14,202 13,867 13,567 ‐1.0%

Electricity 12,502 5,186 5,651 5,668 5,427 5,038 4,955 5,733 6,290 6,935 1.5% 4,712 5,190 5,496 5,788 0.6% 4,464 4,701 4,759 4,791 ‐0.2%

Total 79,165 32,774 33,219 25,321 24,845 21,864 20,179 23,009 24,336 25,971 0.8% 19,188 20,870 21,511 22,177 0.1% 18,180 18,903 18,626 18,358 ‐0.8%

Transport Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Real GDP, AAGR 5.9% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

DPI  per capita, AAGR  14.2% 13.1% 8.2% 1.6% 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6%

Population (millions) 51.8 49.4 47.3 46.0 45.6 45.6 43.6 42.0 40.3 38.6 ‐0.7% 43.6 42.0 40.3 38.6 ‐0.7% 43.6 42.0 40.3 38.6 ‐0.7%

Households (millions) 17.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2% 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2% 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2%

Domestic aviation

Oil 0 2 29 2 12 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0%

Total 0 2 29 2 12 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0%

Road

Income elasticity ‐ Ownership 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65

Car ownership/HH 0.28 0.29 0.35 0.38 0.38 0.41 0.47 0.53 0.61 2.2% 0.39 0.43 0.48 0.52 1.4% 0.39 0.43 0.47 0.51 1.3%

Car ownership/1000 106 117 147 160 162 179 211 247 289 2.7% 173 196 222 248 2.0% 171 193 217 241 1.8%

Cars, gasoline‐fuelled (millions) 5.1 5.0 6.1 6.6 6.6 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.1 1.9% 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.6 1.2% 6.7 7.3 7.9 8.4 1.1%

Cars, diesel‐fuelled (millions) 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.9% 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2% 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1%

Cars stock (millions) 5.3 5.5 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.9 10.0 11.2 1.9% 7.5 8.3 8.9 9.6 1.2% 7.5 8.1 8.7 9.3 1.1%

Fuel eff. Stock (2013 = 100) 127 109 100 91 85 80 75 ‐1.3% 91 85 80 75 ‐1.3% 84 75 66 59 ‐2.4%

Fuel consumption per gasoline/biofuels/LPG‐fuel 0.79 1.00 0.87 0.75 0.69 0.63 0.59 0.55 0.51 ‐1.3% 0.63 0.59 0.55 0.51 ‐1.3% 0.58 0.51 0.45 0.40 ‐2.4%

LPG % of gasoline, biofuels and LPG 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 8.1% 9.9% 11.8% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1%

Biofuels % of gasoline, biofuels and LPG 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Fuel consumption per diesel‐fuelled car (toe) 0.72 0.91 0.79 0.68 0.62 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 ‐1.3% 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 ‐1.3% 0.53 0.47 0.41 0.37 ‐2.4%

Diesel and natural gas‐fuelled truck (eff./year)  0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Diesel and natural gas‐fuelled truck fuel growth (GDP*efficiency) 0.995 1.033 1.025 1.025 1.025 1.020 1.015 1.013 1.012 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.002

Gasoline 7,975 4,020 4,998 4,869 4,456 3,983 3,431 3,648 3,837 4,034 0.1% 3,312 3,395 3,441 3,461 ‐0.6% 3,038 2,885 2,711 2,527 ‐2.0%

Diesel‐car 83 506 535 499 461 445 473 498 523 0.6% 430 440 446 449 ‐0.1% 394 379 361 341 ‐1.4%

Diesel‐truck 2,386 1,650 2,424 2,951 2,996 3,040 3,485 3,940 4,456 1.8% 2,891 3,144 3,373 3,579 0.8% 2,698 2,792 2,850 2,878 ‐0.2%

Diesel 7,831 2,468 2,156 2,959 3,450 3,457 3,486 3,958 4,438 4,979 1.7% 3,321 3,585 3,819 4,028 0.7% 3,092 3,171 3,211 3,219 ‐0.3%

LPG 0 0 9 428 488 540 887 943 992 1,043 3.0% 856 877 889 894 2.3% 785 755 719 679 1.0%

Oil 15,806 6,488 7,164 8,256 8,394 7,980 7,803 8,549 9,267 10,056 1.1% 7,489 7,856 8,150 8,383 0.2% 6,915 6,811 6,641 6,426 ‐1.0%

Natural gas 0 0 65 45 44 42 43 49 55 62 1.8% 41 44 47 50 0.8% 38 39 40 40 ‐0.2%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 42 88 94 99 104 4.2% 85 87 88 89 3.5% 78 113 143 169 6.5%

Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 0.0% 4 4 4 4 0.0% 4 4 4 4 0.0%

Total 15,806 6,488 7,229 8,301 8,438 8,068 7,938 8,695 9,425 10,226 1.1% 7,619 7,992 8,289 8,526 0.3% 7,035 6,967 6,828 6,639 ‐0.9%

Rail

Coal 0 0 50 25 11 9 9 9 9 9 0.0% 9 9 9 9 0.0% 9 9 9 9 0.0%

Oil 788 250 286 178 124 143 145 166 188 213 1.8% 138 150 161 171 0.8% 138 150 161 171 0.8%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Electricity 0 389 432 539 618 574 574 574 574 574 0.0% 574 574 574 574 0.0% 574 574 574 574 0.0%

Total 788 640 768 742 753 726 728 749 771 796 0.4% 721 733 744 754 0.2% 721 733 744 754 0.2%

Pipeline

Natural gas % of production + imports 0.0% 4.5% 4.6% 7.2% 4.8% 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%

Electricity % of production + imports 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Oil 0 0 11 9 6 5 5 5 5 5 0.0% 5 5 5 5 0.0% 5 5 5 5 0.0%

Natural gas 0 2,900 3,149 3,250 2,003 2,258 1,997 2,193 2,349 2,532 0.5% 1,908 2,021 2,094 2,158 ‐0.2% 1,847 1,880 1,874 1,864 ‐0.9%

Electricity 0 132 67 105 80 77 46 46 52 58 ‐1.3% 46 46 52 58 ‐1.3% 46 46 52 58 ‐1.3%

Total 0 3,032 3,227 3,365 2,089 2,340 2,048 2,244 2,407 2,595 0.5% 1,959 2,073 2,151 2,221 ‐0.2% 1,898 1,931 1,932 1,928 ‐0.9%

Domestic navigation

Oil 0 0 132 80 50 45 45 45 45 45 0.0% 45 45 45 45 0.0% 45 45 45 45 0.0%

Total 0 0 132 80 50 45 45 45 45 45 0.0% 45 45 45 45 0.0% 45 45 45 45 0.0%

Non‐specified

Coal 70 0 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 0.0% 2 2 2 2 0.0% 2 2 2 2 0.0%

Oil 1,541 0 36 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Natural gas 0 0 34 8 3 4 4 4 4 4 0.0% 4 4 4 4 0.0% 4 4 4 4 0.0%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Electricity 1,245 273 316 127 99 93 93 93 93 93 0.0% 93 93 93 93 0.0% 93 93 93 93 0.0%

Total 2,856 273 389 138 105 100 99 99 99 99 0.0% 99 99 99 99 0.0% 99 99 99 99 0.0%

Total transport

Coal 70 0 53 27 12 12 11 11 11 11 ‐0.4% 11 11 11 11 ‐0.4% 11 11 11 11 ‐0.4%

Oil 18,135 6,741 7,658 8,525 8,588 8,175 7,999 8,766 9,506 10,320 1.1% 7,678 8,057 8,362 8,605 0.2% 7,104 7,012 6,853 6,648 ‐0.9%

Natural gas 0 2,900 3,248 3,303 2,050 2,303 2,044 2,245 2,408 2,598 0.5% 1,953 2,069 2,145 2,212 ‐0.2% 1,888 1,923 1,918 1,909 ‐0.9%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 42 92 98 103 108 4.4% 89 91 92 93 3.7% 82 117 147 173 6.6%

Heat .. .. ..

Non‐electricity 18,205 9,640 10,959 11,856 10,650 10,532 10,146 11,120 12,028 13,036 1.0% 9,731 10,229 10,610 10,921 0.2% 9,085 9,063 8,929 8,740 ‐0.8%

Electricity 1,245 794 816 772 798 747 717 717 723 729 ‐0.1% 717 717 723 729 ‐0.1% 717 717 723 729 ‐0.1%

Total 19,450 10,435 11,774 12,627 11,448 11,280 10,863 11,838 12,751 13,766 0.9% 10,448 10,946 11,334 11,650 0.1% 9,803 9,780 9,652 9,470 ‐0.8%

International bunkers

Oil 2,063 262 374 274 306 126 126 126 126 126 0.0% 126 126 126 126 0.0% 126 126 126 126 0.0%

Total 2,063 262 374 274 306 126 126 126 126 126 0.0% 126 126 126 126 0.0% 126 126 126 126 0.0%

Transport and international bunkers

Total 21,513 10,697 12,148 12,902 11,754 11,406 10,989 11,964 12,877 13,892 0.9% 10,574 11,072 11,460 11,776 0.1% 9,929 9,906 9,778 9,596 ‐0.8%

Residential Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Housing stock (millions) 17.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2% 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2% 19.2 19.0 18.7 18.3 ‐0.2%DPI  per capita (previous year = 1.0) 1.142 1.131 1.082 1.016 1.045 1.038 1.039 1.039 0.1% 1.032 1.028 1.027 1.026 0.0% 1.032 1.028 1.027 1.026 0.0%

Income elasticity ‐ space 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Income elasticity ‐ appliances 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Average m2 per capita 17.8 20.7 22.0 23.3 23.7 23.8 24.3 25.6 26.8 28.1 0.8% 24.0 24.9 25.8 26.6 0.5% 24.0 24.9 25.8 26.6 0.5%

Total m2 (millions) 923 1,023 1,040 1,071 1,082 1,084 1,063 1,076 1,082 1,087 0.0% 1,049 1,049 1,041 1,029 ‐0.2% 1,049 1,049 1,041 1,029 ‐0.2%

Average household space (m2) 54 54 55 56 56 55 57 58 59 0.3% 55 55 56 56 0.0% 55 55 56 56 0.0%

Efficiency and indices

Coal 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Oil 75% 75% 78% 80% 82% 84% 78% 80% 82% 84% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Natural gas 75% 75% 78% 80% 82% 84% 78% 80% 82% 84% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Biofuels and waste 75% 75% 78% 80% 82% 84% 78% 80% 82% 84% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Heat 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Non‐electricity

Electricity 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Improvements in building code index 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Building code index (2013=1.0) 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 ‐0.2% 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 ‐0.2% 0.95 0.90 0.86 0.82 ‐0.9%

Prices

GDP deflator (2010=100) 24.0 42.9 100.0 123.1 128.4 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3%

OECD Steam coal (UAH/toe) 982 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8%

Crude oil (UAH/toe) 5,590 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8%

Residential, natural gas (UAH/toe) 469 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 16.4% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 16.4% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 16.4%

Residential, electricity (UAH/toe) 2,962 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 13.3% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 13.3% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 13.3%

Tertiary consumption per m2 (kg Price elasticity

By use

Heat/cook/water (non‐electricit ‐0.1 14.9 12.3 12.8 13.4 14.0 ‐0.3% 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 ‐0.5% 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 ‐0.5%

Lighting/appliances (electricity) ‐0.05 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.2 1.1% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.6% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.6%

Total 18.2 15.4 16.3 17.2 18.2 0.0% 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 ‐0.3% 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 ‐0.3%

By energy source

Coal 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0%

Oil 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Natural gas 9.3 6.7 7.3 7.9 8.5 ‐0.4% 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.7 ‐0.8% 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.7 ‐0.9%

Biofuels and waste 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0%

Heat 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 0.0% 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 0.0% 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 0.0%

Non‐electricity 14.9 12.3 12.8 13.4 14.0 ‐0.3% 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 ‐0.5% 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 ‐0.5%

Electricity 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.2 1.1% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.6% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.6%

Total 18.2 15.4 16.3 17.2 18.2 0.0% 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 ‐0.3% 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 ‐0.3%

Heat/cook/water proxy price (UAH/toe) 519 6,939 8,760 10,875 12,751 6,934 8,745 10,849 12,711 6,943 8,766 10,885 12,763

Energy consumption per m2 (kgoe/m2)

Coal 6.0 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 ‐0.2% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 ‐0.2% 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 ‐1.8%

Oil 3.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐1.8%

Natural gas 9.5 12.5 13.8 13.1 12.7 12.5 8.6 9.0 9.3 9.7 ‐1.1% 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.9 ‐1.5% 7.9 7.5 7.2 6.9 ‐2.7%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 ‐0.7% 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 ‐0.7% 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 ‐1.8%

Heat 15.4 6.0 5.6 4.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 ‐0.2% 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 ‐0.2% 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 ‐0.9%

Non‐electricity 34.3 21.4 21.1 19.3 18.6 18.4 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 ‐0.8% 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 ‐1.1% 13.4 12.8 12.1 11.4 ‐2.1%

Electricity 1.6 2.5 2.2 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.2 1.1% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.6% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.6%

Total 35.9 23.9 23.3 22.2 21.7 21.7 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.5 ‐0.5% 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 ‐0.8% 16.5 16.0 15.6 15.2 ‐1.6%

Energy consumption

Coal 5,526 2,585 1,288 476 715 730 707 709 706 702 ‐0.2% 698 691 679 664 ‐0.4% 633 572 514 460 ‐2.1%

Oil 3,125 318 533 60 71 30 28 27 27 26 ‐0.7% 28 27 26 24 ‐0.9% 26 24 21 19 ‐2.1%

Natural gas 8,733 12,815 14,344 14,063 13,760 13,513 9,109 9,660 10,095 10,571 ‐1.1% 8,792 8,998 9,083 9,132 ‐1.8% 8,253 7,913 7,484 7,049 ‐2.9%

Biofuels and waste 24 6 19 914 936 996 932 911 884 858 ‐0.7% 920 888 851 812 ‐0.9% 864 781 701 627 ‐2.1%

Heat 14,250 6,135 5,803 5,140 4,682 4,667 4,520 4,530 4,511 4,486 ‐0.2% 4,464 4,415 4,339 4,247 ‐0.4% 4,296 4,082 3,853 3,623 ‐1.1%

Non‐electricity 31,658 21,858 21,987 20,654 20,163 19,936 15,296 15,837 16,222 16,642 ‐0.8% 14,902 15,018 14,977 14,880 ‐1.3% 14,072 13,371 12,573 11,778 ‐2.4%

Electricity 1,479 2,591 2,242 3,160 3,303 3,559 3,333 3,727 4,121 4,554 1.1% 3,210 3,450 3,667 3,864 0.4% 3,210 3,450 3,667 3,864 0.4%

Total 33,137 24,449 24,229 23,813 23,466 23,495 18,630 19,564 20,343 21,197 ‐0.5% 18,112 18,468 18,644 18,744 ‐1.0% 17,282 16,822 16,240 15,642 ‐1.8%

toe/accommodation 1.88 1.29 1.27 1.23 1.21 1.21 0.97 1.03 1.09 1.16 ‐0.2% 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.02 ‐0.8% 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.85 ‐1.6%

Commercial Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

GDP (UAH2010 billion) 734 1,066 1,079 1,141 1,141 1,199 1,409 1,633 1,893 2.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3%

DPI per capita (UAH2010 thousand) 14.8 18.5 20.5 20.8 22.8 27.8 33.6 40.7 3.1% 21.7 25.1 28.8 32.7 2.1% 21.7 25.1 28.8 32.7 2.1%

Income elasticity

Sector activity growth [.7GDP/.3DPI] 5‐year moving average   ‐0.5% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9%

Floor space Index  (2013= 1 100.5 100.0 102.5 123.7 145.5 170.9 2.5% 99.8 113.6 126.9 140.1 1.5% 99.8 113.6 126.9 140.1 1.5%

Efficiency and indices

Coal 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Oil 75% 75% 78% 80% 82% 84% 78% 80% 82% 84% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Natural gas 75% 75% 78% 80% 82% 84% 78% 80% 82% 84% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Biofuels and waste 75% 75% 78% 80% 82% 84% 78% 80% 82% 84% 80% 84% 88% 92%

Heat 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Non‐electricity

Electricity 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Improvements in building code index 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Building code index (2013=1.0) 1.00 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.92 ‐0.4% 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.92 ‐0.4% 0.97 0.92 0.88 0.83 ‐0.8%

Prices

GDP deflator (2010=100) 24.0 42.9 100.0 123.1 128.4 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3%

OECD Steam coal (UAH/toe) 982 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8%

Crude oil (UAH/toe) 5,590 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8%

Industry, natural gas (UAH/toe) 1,736 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7%

Industry, electricity (UAH/toe) 10,119 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2% 28,253 34,209 40,434 46,419 7.2%

Tertiary requirements per floor s Price elasticity

By use

Heat/cook/water (non‐electricit ‐0.1 34.0 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.6 ‐0.5% 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.6 ‐0.5% 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.6 ‐0.5%

Lighting/appliances (electricity) ‐0.1 21.4 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3% 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3% 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3%

Total 55.5 51.4 51.2 51.0 50.8 ‐0.4% 51.4 51.2 51.0 50.8 ‐0.4% 51.4 51.1 50.9 50.7 ‐0.4%

By energy source

Coal 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0% 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0% 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0%

Oil 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0%

Natural gas 4.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 ‐7.0% 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 ‐7.0% 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 ‐7.4%

Biofuels and waste 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0%

Heat 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 0.0% 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 0.0% 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 0.0%

Non‐electricity 34.0 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.6 ‐0.5% 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.6 ‐0.5% 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.6 ‐0.5%

Electricity 21.4 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3% 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3% 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3%

Total 55.5 51.4 51.2 51.0 50.8 ‐0.4% 51.4 51.2 51.0 50.8 ‐0.4% 51.4 51.1 50.9 50.7 ‐0.4%

Heat/cook/water proxy price (UAH/toe) 1,990 7,306 9,487 12,037 14,410 7,306 9,487 12,037 14,410 7,347 9,597 12,273 14,827

Energy consumption per floor space index (2013)

Coal 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 ‐0.4% 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 ‐0.4% 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 ‐1.8%

Oil 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 ‐0.9% 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 ‐0.9% 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 ‐1.8%

Natural gas 4.6 5.7 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.9 ‐7.8% 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.9 ‐7.8% 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 ‐9.1%

Biofuels and waste 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ‐0.9% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ‐0.9% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ‐1.8%

Heat 23.2 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.4 25.7 ‐0.4% 27.7 27.0 26.4 25.7 ‐0.4% 27.2 25.9 24.6 23.4 ‐0.8%

Non‐electricity 30.4 36.0 31.7 30.6 29.5 28.6 ‐1.0% 31.7 30.6 29.5 28.6 ‐1.0% 31.0 29.1 27.3 25.7 ‐1.5%

Electricity 19.7 21.4 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3% 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3% 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 ‐0.3%

Total 50.1 57.5 51.9 50.8 49.7 48.8 ‐0.7% 51.9 50.8 49.7 48.8 ‐0.7% 51.2 49.3 47.5 45.9 ‐1.0%

Energy consumption

Coal 0 0 0 177 161 113 114 135 154 177 2.1% 111 124 135 145 1.1% 103 106 107 107 ‐0.2%

Oil 0 0 51 74 78 89 87 100 112 125 1.5% 85 92 97 102 0.6% 81 84 84 84 ‐0.2%

Natural gas 1,200 843 536 348 463 567 186 181 166 161 ‐5.6% 181 166 145 132 ‐6.4% 172 147 118 98 ‐7.7%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 12 27 25 24 28 31 35 1.5% 24 26 27 29 0.6% 23 23 24 24 ‐0.2%

Heat 0 0 0 2,387 2,328 2,808 2,840 3,344 3,836 4,393 2.1% 2,767 3,071 3,344 3,603 1.1% 2,720 2,943 3,126 3,284 0.7%

Non‐electricity 1,200 843 587 2,998 3,057 3,602 3,252 3,787 4,299 4,891 1.4% 3,168 3,478 3,748 4,011 0.5% 3,098 3,304 3,460 3,597 0.0%

Electricity 0 758 1,596 1,644 1,980 2,142 2,069 2,497 2,938 3,450 2.2% 2,015 2,293 2,561 2,829 1.3% 2,015 2,293 2,561 2,829 1.3%

Total 1,200 1,601 2,182 4,643 5,037 5,745 5,321 6,285 7,237 8,341 1.7% 5,183 5,771 6,309 6,840 3.0% 5,113 5,597 6,020 6,426 2.7%

Ratio of toe/index of m2 50.1 57.5 51.9 50.8 49.7 48.8 ‐0.7% 51.9 50.8 49.7 48.8 1.4% 51.2 49.3 47.5 45.9 1.1%

Agriculture, fishing and non‐specified Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

GDP (UAH2010 billion) 734 1,066 1,079 1,141 1,141 1,199 1,409 1,633 1,893 2.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3%

Autonomous efficiency gains 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Energy consumption Income elasticity

Coal 2,028 88 974 17 14 12 13 15 17 19 2.2% 12 13 14 16 1.2% 11 12 13 13 0.3%

Oil 5,969 1,110 1,252 1,263 1,364 1,396 1,457 1,703 1,965 2,267 2.2% 1,385 1,537 1,682 1,821 1.2% 1,313 1,392 1,456 1,507 0.3%

Natural gas 0 0 120 133 153 200 209 244 282 325 2.2% 198 220 241 261 1.2% 188 199 209 216 0.3%

Biofuels and waste 288 244 204 17 20 16 17 20 23 26 2.2% 16 18 19 21 1.2% 15 16 17 17 0.3%

Heat 0 0 0 329 312 276 288 337 388 448 2.2% 274 304 333 360 1.2% 260 275 288 298 0.3%

Non‐electricity 1 8,285 1,442 2,550 1,758 1,863 1,900 1,983 2,318 2,674 3,085 2.2% 1,886 2,092 2,289 2,478 1.2% 1,786 1,895 1,982 2,051 0.3%

Electricity 1 2,450 432 283 282 332 341 356 416 480 554 2.2% 338 375 411 445 1.2% 321 340 356 368 0.3%

Total 10,735 1,873 2,833 2,041 2,195 2,242 2,339 2,735 3,154 3,638 2.2% 2,224 2,467 2,700 2,923 1.2% 2,107 2,235 2,338 2,419 0.3%

Non‐energy use Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

GDP (UAH2010 billion) 734 1,066 1,079 1,141 1,141 1,199 1,409 1,633 1,893 2.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3% 1,140 1,271 1,398 1,521 1.3%

Annual growth rate (real) 5.9% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

Autonomous efficiency gains 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Prices

GDP deflator (2010=100) 24.0 42.9 100.0 123.1 128.4 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3% 198.3 240.1 283.8 325.8 4.3%

OECD Steam coal (UAH/toe) 982 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8% 2,606 3,352 4,200 5,102 7.8%

Crude oil (UAH/toe) 5,590 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8% 13,561 18,387 23,949 29,105 7.8%

Industry, natural gas (UAH/toe) 1,736 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7% 7,259 9,132 11,311 13,224 9.7%

Petrochemical feedstock Income  Price elasticity

Coal 0 0 0 49 44 36 37 44 51 59 2.3% 36 40 44 47 1.3% 36 40 44 47 1.3%

Oil 0 0 337 226 182 107 111 131 152 176 2.3% 106 118 130 141 1.3% 106 118 130 141 1.3%

Natural gas 0 0 5,469 3,945 4,832 3,913 4,074 4,785 5,545 6,426 2.3% 3,874 4,317 4,746 5,162 1.3% 3,874 4,317 4,746 5,162 1.3%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat .. .. ..

Non‐electricity 1 ‐0.01 0 0 5,806 4,220 5,058 4,056 4,223 4,960 5,747 6,661 2.3% 4,016 4,475 4,919 5,351 1.3% 4,016 4,475 4,919 5,351 1.3%

Electricity .. .. ..

Total 0 0 5,806 4,220 5,058 4,055 4,223 4,960 5,747 6,661 2.3% 4,016 4,475 4,919 5,351 1.3% 4,016 4,475 4,919 5,351 1.3%

Non‐electricity proxy price (UAH/toe) 1,869 7,384 9,325 11,581 13,571 7,384 9,325 11,581 13,571 7,384 9,325 11,581 13,571

Others Income  Price elasticity

Coal 0 0 1,290 437 347 348 364 428 495 574 2.3% 346 386 424 461 1.3% 346 386 424 461 1.3%

Oil 6,466 1,213 1,473 737 635 458 479 563 652 755 2.3% 456 508 558 607 1.3% 456 508 558 607 1.3%

Natural gas 0 0 6 168 76 70 73 86 100 115 2.3% 70 78 85 93 1.3% 70 78 85 93 1.3%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat .. .. ..

Non‐electricity 1 ‐0.01 6,466 1,213 2,769 1,342 1,058 876 917 1,076 1,247 1,445 2.3% 872 971 1,067 1,160 1.3% 872 971 1,067 1,160 1.3%

Electricity .. .. ..

Total 6,466 1,213 2,769 1,342 1,058 876 917 1,076 1,247 1,445 2.3% 872 971 1,067 1,160 1.3% 872 971 1,067 1,160 1.3%

Non‐electricity proxy price (UAH/toe) 3,801 8,706 11,675 15,094 18,300 8,706 11,675 15,094 18,300 8,706 11,675 15,094 18,300

Total non‐energy use

Coal 0 0 1,290 486 391 384 402 472 546 633 2.3% 382 426 468 508 1.3% 382 426 468 508 1.3%

Oil 6,466 1,213 1,810 963 817 565 591 694 803 931 2.3% 562 626 688 748 1.3% 562 626 688 748 1.3%

Natural gas 0 0 5,475 4,112 4,908 3,983 4,147 4,871 5,644 6,542 2.3% 3,944 4,395 4,831 5,255 1.3% 3,944 4,395 4,831 5,255 1.3%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat .. .. ..

Non‐electricity 6,466 1,213 8,575 5,562 6,116 4,932 5,140 6,037 6,994 8,106 2.3% 4,888 5,446 5,986 6,511 1.3% 4,888 5,446 5,986 6,511 1.3%

Electricity .. .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Total 6,466 1,213 8,575 5,562 6,116 4,932 5,140 6,037 6,994 8,106 2.3% 4,888 5,446 5,986 6,511 1.3% 4,888 5,446 5,986 6,511 1.3%

Energy sectors Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Transformation industries

Blasts furnaces and coke ovens

Activity: coal consumption in iron and stee 10,932 5,679 7,113 5,980 6,843 6,659 6,052 6,798 6,690 6,606 0.0% 5,755 6,194 6,095 6,018 ‐0.5% 5,452 5,610 5,278 4,982 ‐1.3%

Coal 17,548 12,001 9,223 7,423 7,317 7,248 6,967 7,827 7,703 7,605 0.2% 6,625 7,131 7,018 6,929 ‐0.2% 6,277 6,459 6,077 5,736 ‐1.1%

Oil 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Natural gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Non‐electricity 17,548 12,001 9,225 7,423 7,317 7,248 6,967 7,827 7,703 7,605 0.2% 6,625 7,131 7,018 6,929 ‐0.2% 6,277 6,459 6,077 5,736 ‐1.1%

Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Total 17,548 12,001 9,225 7,423 7,317 7,248 6,967 7,827 7,703 7,605 0.2% 6,625 7,131 7,018 6,929 ‐0.2% 6,277 6,459 6,077 5,736 ‐1.1%

Refineries

Activity: crude oil primary supply 58,639 9,481 19,810 11,497 5,050 3,979 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9% 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9% 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9%

Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Oil ‐2,497 162 338 ‐241 ‐170 ‐166 ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2%

Natural gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Non‐electricity ‐2,497 162 338 ‐241 ‐170 ‐166 ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2%

Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Total ‐2,497 162 338 ‐241 ‐170 ‐166 ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2%

Other transformation and transfers

Coal ‐2,272 ‐81 35 85 76 229 229 229 229 229 0.0% 229 229 229 229 0.0% 229 229 229 229 0.0%

Oil 0 0 177 ‐95 ‐71 ‐142 ‐142 ‐142 ‐142 ‐142 0.0% ‐142 ‐142 ‐142 ‐142 0.0% ‐142 ‐142 ‐142 ‐142 0.0%

Natural gas 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Biofuels and waste 48 12 39 181 185 199 199 199 199 199 0.0% 199 199 199 199 0.0% 199 199 199 199 0.0%

Heat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Non‐electricity ‐2,224 ‐69 271 170 190 286 286 286 286 286 0.0% 286 286 286 286 0.0% 286 286 286 286 0.0%

Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Total ‐2,224 ‐69 271 170 190 286 286 286 286 286 0.0% 286 286 286 286 0.0% 286 286 286 286 0.0%

Statistical differences

Coal 2,945 181 ‐299 ‐6 ‐7 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 0.0% ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 0.0% ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 0.0%

Oil ‐5,436 0 ‐13 253 ‐995 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 0.0% ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 0.0% ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 0.0%

Natural gas 0 0 2,363 9,573 242 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 0.0% ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 0.0% ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 0.0%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 75 74 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Non‐electricity ‐2,490 181 2,050 9,895 ‐687 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 0.0% ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 0.0% ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 0.0%

Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Total ‐2,490 181 2,050 9,895 ‐687 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 0.0% ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 0.0% ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 ‐1,854 0.0%

Own use

Coal mines

Activity: coal production 86,808 36,345 34,688 33,716 40,256 40,663 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1% 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1% 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1%

Coal 281 80 88 53 43 55 47 47 45 43 ‐1.1% 47 47 45 43 ‐1.1% 47 47 45 43 ‐1.1%

Oil 0 0 40 27 34 35 30 30 29 27 ‐1.1% 30 30 29 27 ‐1.1% 30 30 29 27 ‐1.1%

Natural gas 0 0 10 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 ‐1.1% 2 2 2 2 ‐1.1% 2 2 2 2 ‐1.1%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 ‐1.1% 1 1 1 1 ‐1.1% 1 1 1 1 ‐1.1%

Heat 0 0 0 275 274 308 265 265 254 242 ‐1.1% 265 265 254 242 ‐1.1% 265 265 254 242 ‐1.1%

Non‐electricity 281 80 138 359 352 401 345 345 331 316 ‐1.1% 345 345 331 316 ‐1.1% 345 345 331 316 ‐1.1%

Electricity 1,248 662 582 576 596 637 548 548 524 501 ‐1.1% 548 548 524 501 ‐1.1% 548 548 524 501 ‐1.1%

Total 1,530 742 720 934 948 1,038 893 893 855 817 ‐1.1% 893 893 855 817 ‐1.1% 893 893 855 817 ‐1.1%

Oil and gas extraction

Activity: crude oil and natural gas product 27,866 18,704 21,824 19,016 18,818 19,189 20,000 21,000 22,500 24,000 1.0% 20,000 21,000 22,500 24,000 1.0% 20,000 21,000 22,500 24,000 1.0%

Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Oil 23 0 65 42 47 41 43 45 49 52 1.0% 43 45 49 52 1.0% 43 45 49 52 1.0%

Natural gas 3,750 1,282 1,237 676 514 561 584 614 658 701 1.0% 584 614 658 701 1.0% 584 614 658 701 1.0%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 40 42 41 43 45 48 51 1.0% 43 45 48 51 1.0% 43 45 48 51 1.0%

Non‐electricity 3,773 1,282 1,302 757 603 643 670 704 754 804 1.0% 670 704 754 804 1.0% 670 704 754 804 1.0%

Electricity 35 34 34 42 55 49 52 54 58 62 1.0% 52 54 58 62 1.0% 52 54 58 62 1.0%

Total 3,808 1,316 1,336 799 658 692 722 758 812 866 1.0% 722 758 812 866 1.0% 722 758 812 866 1.0%

Blasts furnaces and coke ovens

Activity: coal consumption in iron and stee 10,932 5,679 7,113 5,980 6,843 6,659 6,052 6,798 6,690 6,606 0.0% 5,755 6,194 6,095 6,018 ‐0.5% 5,452 5,610 5,278 4,982 ‐1.3%

Coal 3,044 1,823 1,843 1,528 1,508 1,574 1,430 1,606 1,581 1,561 0.0% 1,360 1,464 1,440 1,422 ‐0.5% 1,288 1,326 1,247 1,177 ‐1.3%

Oil 0 0 18 0 9 8 7 8 8 8 0.0% 7 7 7 7 ‐0.5% 6 7 6 6 ‐1.3%

Natural gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 ‐0.5% 0 0 0 0 ‐1.3%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 529 574 563 512 575 566 559 0.0% 487 524 516 509 ‐0.5% 461 475 446 421 ‐1.3%

Non‐electricity 3,044 1,823 1,862 2,057 2,091 2,145 1,949 2,190 2,155 2,128 0.0% 1,854 1,995 1,963 1,938 ‐0.5% 1,756 1,807 1,700 1,605 ‐1.3%

Electricity 167 90 99 91 82 89 81 91 89 88 0.0% 77 83 81 80 ‐0.5% 73 75 71 67 ‐1.3%

Total 3,211 1,913 1,961 2,148 2,173 2,234 2,030 2,281 2,244 2,216 0.0% 1,930 2,078 2,045 2,019 ‐0.5% 1,829 1,882 1,771 1,671 ‐1.3%

Refineries

Activity: crude oil primary supply 58,639 9,481 19,810 11,497 5,050 3,979 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9% 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9% 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9%

Coal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Oil 1,939 196 475 216 52 75 73 73 82 91 0.9% 73 73 82 91 0.9% 73 73 82 91 0.9%

Natural gas 502 67 55 38 55 28 28 28 31 35 0.9% 28 28 31 35 0.9% 28 28 31 35 0.9%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Non‐electricity 2,440 263 530 254 107 104 100 100 113 126 0.9% 100 100 113 126 0.9% 100 100 113 126 0.9%

Electricity 175 77 126 205 59 50 49 49 55 62 0.9% 49 49 55 62 0.9% 49 49 55 62 0.9%

Total 2,615 340 656 459 166 154 149 149 168 188 0.9% 149 149 168 188 0.9% 149 149 168 188 0.9%

Energy sectors Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Electricity, CHP and heat plants

Activity: electricity consumption excl. own 21,651 13,341 13,997 14,600 14,741 14,702 14,220 16,134 17,789 19,683 1.3% 13,638 14,824 15,753 16,644 0.6% 13,331 14,218 14,839 15,406 0.2%

Activity: heat consumption excl. own use b40,936 17,726 16,787 14,695 14,157 14,000 13,353 14,578 15,551 16,690 0.8% 13,010 13,684 14,126 14,544 0.2% 12,547 12,736 12,694 12,620 ‐0.5%

Coal 0 0 173 226 210 208 199 222 241 263 1.1% 193 206 216 226 0.4% 187 195 199 203 ‐0.1%

Oil 0 0 43 28 26 36 35 39 42 46 1.1% 34 36 38 40 0.4% 33 34 35 36 ‐0.1%

Natural gas 0 0 32 24 30 27 26 29 31 34 1.1% 25 27 28 29 0.4% 24 25 26 26 ‐0.1%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1.1% 0 0 1 1 0.4% 0 0 0 0 ‐0.1%

Heat 119 107 111 91 84 83 79 86 92 99 0.8% 77 81 84 86 0.2% 74 76 75 75 ‐0.5%

Non‐electricity 119 107 360 371 350 354 340 377 407 443 1.0% 329 351 366 381 0.3% 319 330 336 340 ‐0.2%

Electricity 1,583 1,057 1,274 1,269 1,331 1,270 1,228 1,394 1,537 1,700 1.3% 1,178 1,280 1,361 1,438 0.6% 1,152 1,228 1,282 1,331 0.2%

Total 1,702 1,164 1,633 1,640 1,682 1,624 1,568 1,770 1,944 2,143 1.3% 1,507 1,631 1,727 1,819 0.5% 1,471 1,559 1,617 1,671 0.1%

Electricity own use % of generation 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Heat own use % of generation 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Others

Coal 362 0 9 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 0.0% 8 8 8 8 0.0% 8 8 8 8 0.0%

Oil 0 0 134 283 248 248 248 248 248 248 0.0% 248 248 248 248 0.0% 248 248 248 248 0.0%

Natural gas 0 0 2 336 320 320 320 320 320 320 0.0% 320 320 320 320 0.0% 320 320 320 320 0.0%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 0 0 0 535 538 538 538 538 538 538 0.0% 538 538 538 538 0.0% 538 538 538 538 0.0%

Non‐electricity 362 0 146 1,162 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 0.0% 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 0.0% 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 0.0%

Electricity 464 55 436 296 268 268 268 268 268 268 0.0% 268 268 268 268 0.0% 268 268 268 268 0.0%

Total 826 55 581 1,457 1,382 1,382 1,382 1,382 1,382 1,382 0.0% 1,382 1,382 1,382 1,382 0.0% 1,382 1,382 1,382 1,382 0.0%

Energy industry own use

Coal 3,688 1,902 2,115 1,812 1,769 1,424 1,685 1,884 1,875 1,875 1.3% 1,608 1,725 1,710 1,699 0.8% 1,531 1,576 1,500 1,431 0.0%

Oil 1,962 196 775 597 416 466 435 443 457 472 0.1% 434 439 452 465 0.0% 433 436 448 460 ‐0.1%

Natural gas 4,251 1,350 1,336 1,076 920 799 961 993 1,043 1,093 1.4% 960 991 1,039 1,088 1.4% 959 989 1,037 1,085 1.4%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 3 0 6 1 1 1 1 ‐6.3% 1 1 1 1 ‐6.5% 1 1 1 1 ‐6.7%

Heat 119 107 111 1,471 1,513 1,377 1,437 1,510 1,498 1,490 0.4% 1,410 1,453 1,439 1,427 0.2% 1,382 1,398 1,362 1,328 ‐0.2%

Non‐electricity 10,020 3,555 4,337 4,959 4,618 4,072 4,520 4,830 4,875 4,931 0.9% 4,413 4,610 4,642 4,681 0.6% 4,306 4,401 4,348 4,305 0.3%

Electricity 3,671 1,975 2,551 2,478 2,391 2,199 2,225 2,403 2,531 2,680 0.9% 2,171 2,282 2,347 2,410 0.4% 2,140 2,222 2,258 2,289 0.2%

Total 13,691 5,530 6,887 7,437 7,009 6,271 6,745 7,233 7,406 7,612 0.9% 6,584 6,891 6,989 7,091 0.6% 6,446 6,623 6,606 6,595 0.2%

Losses

Activity: electricity consumption excl. own 19,765 10,679 11,864 12,735 12,899 12,921 12,427 14,100 15,547 17,202 1.3% 11,985 13,028 13,844 14,627 0.6% 11,716 12,496 13,041 13,540 0.2%

Activity: heat consumption excl. own use b30,672 13,268 12,563 13,861 13,294 13,153 12,569 13,722 14,638 15,711 0.8% 12,223 12,856 13,271 13,664 0.2% 11,788 11,966 11,926 11,856 ‐0.5%

Coal 0 0 29 202 219 306 306 306 306 306 0.0% 306 306 306 306 0.0% 306 306 306 306 0.0%

Oil 235 0 14 19 12 13 13 13 13 13 0.0% 13 13 13 13 0.0% 13 13 13 13 0.0%

Natural gas 2,234 1,514 1,641 682 483 472 472 472 472 472 0.0% 472 472 472 472 0.0% 472 472 472 472 0.0%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Heat 10,264 4,458 4,225 834 862 847 784 856 913 980 0.7% 787 828 855 880 0.2% 759 771 768 764 ‐0.5%

Non‐electricity 12,733 5,973 5,907 1,737 1,577 1,638 1,575 1,647 1,704 1,771 0.4% 1,578 1,619 1,646 1,671 0.1% 1,550 1,562 1,559 1,555 ‐0.2%

Electricity 1,886 2,663 2,133 1,866 1,842 1,781 1,792 2,034 2,242 2,481 1.5% 1,652 1,796 1,908 2,016 0.6% 1,615 1,722 1,798 1,866 0.2%

Total 14,619 8,636 8,040 3,603 3,419 3,419 3,367 3,681 3,946 4,252 1.0% 3,230 3,415 3,554 3,687 0.3% 3,165 3,284 3,357 3,421 0.0%

Electricity own use % of electricity consum 10% 25% 18% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%

Heat own use % of heat consumption excl 33% 34% 34% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

Electricity demand and supply Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Electricity sales

Total final consumption 17,676 9,760 10,587 11,526 11,839 11,828 11,430 13,091 14,552 16,222 1.4% 10,993 12,027 12,858 13,655 0.7% 10,727 11,502 12,066 12,582 0.3%

Industry 12,502 5,186 5,651 5,668 5,427 5,038 4,955 5,733 6,290 6,935 1.5% 4,712 5,190 5,496 5,788 0.6% 4,464 4,701 4,759 4,791 ‐0.2%

Transport 1,245 794 816 772 798 747 717 717 723 729 ‐0.1% 717 717 723 729 ‐0.1% 717 717 723 729 ‐0.1%

Other 3,929 3,780 4,120 5,086 5,615 6,042 5,758 6,641 7,538 8,557 1.6% 5,563 6,119 6,639 7,138 0.8% 5,546 6,084 6,584 7,061 0.7%

Residential 1,479 2,591 2,242 3,160 3,303 3,559 3,333 3,727 4,121 4,554 1.1% 3,210 3,450 3,667 3,864 0.4% 3,210 3,450 3,667 3,864 0.4%

Commercial 0 758 1,596 1,644 1,980 2,142 2,069 2,497 2,938 3,450 2.2% 2,015 2,293 2,561 2,829 1.3% 2,015 2,293 2,561 2,829 1.3%

Agriculture, etc. 2,450 432 283 282 332 341 356 416 480 554 2.2% 338 375 411 445 1.2% 321 340 356 368 0.3%

Non‐energy use .. .. ..

Energy sector excl. statistical differences 5,558 4,638 4,683 4,343 4,233 3,980 4,017 4,437 4,774 5,162 1.2% 3,823 4,077 4,256 4,426 0.5% 3,755 3,944 4,055 4,156 0.2%

Total domestic use 23,233 14,398 15,270 15,869 16,073 15,808 15,448 17,527 19,326 21,384 1.4% 14,816 16,104 17,113 18,081 0.6% 14,482 15,446 16,121 16,737 0.3%

Imports 1,324 230 147 2 8 3 3 3 3 3 0.0% 3 3 3 3 0.0% 3 3 3 3 0.0%

Exports ‐3,773 ‐561 ‐866 ‐351 ‐994 ‐854 ‐854 ‐854 ‐854 ‐854 0.0% ‐854 ‐854 ‐854 ‐854 0.0% ‐854 ‐854 ‐854 ‐854 0.0%

Statistical differences 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Required generation 25,682 14,729 15,989 16,218 17,059 16,659 16,299 18,378 20,177 22,235 1.3% 15,667 16,955 17,964 18,932 0.6% 15,333 16,297 16,972 17,588 0.2%

Required generation (TWh) 298.6 171.3 185.9 188.6 198.4 193.7 189.5 213.7 234.6 258.5 1.3% 182.2 197.2 208.9 220.1 0.6% 178.3 189.5 197.3 204.5 0.2%

Generation by fuel and generator (TWh)

Utilities

Coal (existing) 110.9 49.8 45.2 65.1 77.5 75.6 38.7 42.3 36.2 57.9 ‐1.2% 41.7 44.9 38.4 47.4 ‐2.1% 29.3 24.5 9.7 14.7 ‐7.2%

Coal (upgraded) 7.0 24.5 42.0 42.0 .. 3.5 12.3 21.0 21.0 .. 5.3 18.4 31.5 31.5 ..

Coal 110.9 49.8 45.2 65.1 77.5 75.6 45.7 66.9 78.2 100.0 1.3% 45.2 57.2 59.4 68.4 ‐0.5% 34.5 42.9 41.2 46.2 ‐2.2%

Oil 48.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐100%

Natural gas 17.3 11.7 10.0 3.1 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6% 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.6%

Nuclear 76.2 77.3 88.8 89.2 90.1 83.2 111.0 111.0 111.0 111.0 1.3% 104.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 1.0% 111.0 111.0 111.0 111.0 1.3%

Hydro 10.5 11.2 12.3 13.1 10.5 13.8 11.8 11.8 14.7 14.7 0.3% 11.8 11.8 14.7 14.7 0.3% 11.8 11.8 14.7 14.7 0.3%

Solar/wind/other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 3.5 6.6 13.1 15.3 12.2% 3.5 6.6 13.1 15.3 12.2% 3.5 6.6 13.1 15.3 12.2%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Coal ‐ CHP 1.0 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0% 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0% 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 24.7 13.7 19.3 10.8 11.3 9.5 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 ‐0.2% 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 ‐0.1% 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.9 ‐0.3%

Nuclear ‐ CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 ‐0.2% 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 ‐0.1% 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 ‐0.3%

Biofuels ‐ CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Utilities total generation  288.6 165.4 177.3 183.7 194.6 188.0 186.3 210.4 231.4 255.3 1.4% 178.9 193.9 205.6 216.9 0.7% 175.0 186.2 194.1 201.3 0.3%

Autoproducers

Coal 2.1 1.3 3.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0%

Oil 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0%

Natural gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Hydro 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Solar/wind/other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0%

Coal ‐ CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 7.9 4.5 4.8 1.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0% 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0% 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0%

Nuclear ‐ CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

Biofuels ‐ CHP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0%

Autoproducers total generation  10.0 5.9 8.6 4.9 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0.0% 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0.0% 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0.0%

Total sector Generation  298.6 171.3 185.9 188.6 198.4 191.2 189.5 213.7 234.6 258.5 1.4% 182.2 197.2 208.9 220.1 0.6% 178.3 189.5 197.3 204.5 0.3%

Energy requirements 

Utilities

Coal (existing) 19,867 10,179 11,123 9,514 15,227 ‐1.2% 10,969 11,799 10,081 12,463 ‐2.1% 7,689 6,444 2,552 3,861 ‐7.2%

Coal (upgraded) 1,310 4,586 7,861 7,861 .. 655 2,293 3,931 3,931 .. 983 3,439 5,896 5,896 ..

Utilities 33,555 13,702 12,203 17,299 20,379 19,867 11,489 15,709 17,375 23,088 0.7% 11,624 14,092 14,011 16,393 ‐0.9% 8,671 9,883 8,448 9,757 ‐3.2%

Oil 12,837 178 138 50 40 37 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100%

Natural gas 4,638 3,144 2,699 688 396 314 441 441 441 441 1.6% 441 441 441 441 1.6% 441 441 441 441 1.6%

Nuclear 19,853 20,156 23,130 23,234 23,490 21,685 28,920 28,920 28,920 28,920 1.3% 27,094 27,094 27,094 27,094 1.0% 28,920 28,920 28,920 28,920 1.3%

Hydro 903 965 1,060 1,129 899 1,185 1,013 1,013 1,266 1,266 0.3% 1,013 1,013 1,266 1,266 0.3% 1,013 1,013 1,266 1,266 0.3%

Solar/wind/other 0 1 3 4 53 104 301 565 1,130 1,318 12.2% 301 565 1,130 1,318 12.2% 301 565 1,130 1,318 12.2%

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Coal ‐ CHP 288 125 302 805 1,150 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 0.0% 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 0.0% 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP 0 139 18 90 45 36 36 36 36 36 0.0% 36 36 36 36 0.0% 36 36 36 36 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 5,366 3,638 6,222 4,028 3,833 3,205 3,093 3,093 3,093 3,093 ‐0.2% 3,141 3,141 3,141 3,141 ‐0.1% 3,093 3,009 3,009 3,009 ‐0.3%

Nuclear ‐ CHP 0 0 0 153 163 163 163 163 163 163 0.0% 163 163 163 163 0.0% 163 163 163 163 0.0%

Biofuels ‐ CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Utilities total input 77,440 42,046 45,775 47,479 50,448 47,756 46,614 51,098 53,582 59,483 1.0% 44,971 47,703 48,440 51,010 0.3% 43,797 45,189 44,572 46,069 ‐0.2%

Autoproducers

Coal

Coal 721 431 1,402 19 43 42 42 42 42 42 0.0% 42 42 42 42 0.0% 42 42 42 42 0.0%

Oil 0 0 0 54 33 31 31 31 31 31 0.0% 31 31 31 31 0.0% 31 31 31 31 0.0%

Natural gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Hydro 2 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.0% 2 2 2 2 0.0% 2 2 2 2 0.0%

Solar/wind/other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Biofuels and waste 0 0 0 41 26 21 21 21 21 21 0.0% 21 21 21 21 0.0% 21 21 21 21 0.0%

Coal ‐ CHP 0 0 0 1,108 1,151 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 0.0% 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 0.0% 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP 0 0 0 106 44 35 35 35 35 35 0.0% 35 35 35 35 0.0% 35 35 35 35 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 2,449 1,312 1,354 1,531 1,969 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 0.0% 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 0.0% 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 0.0%

Nuclear ‐ CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. .. ..

Biofuels ‐ CHP 0 0 0 322 404 453 453 453 453 453 0.0% 453 453 453 453 0.0% 453 453 453 453 0.0%

Autoproducers total input 3,171 1,749 2,759 3,182 3,671 3,390 3,390 3,390 3,390 3,390 0.0% 3,390 3,390 3,390 3,390 0.0% 3,390 3,390 3,390 3,390 0.0%

Total of utilities and autoproducers 80,611 43,795 48,534 50,661 54,119 51,146 50,005 54,488 56,972 62,874 0.9% 48,362 51,093 51,831 54,401 0.3% 47,187 48,579 47,962 49,459 ‐0.2%

Capacity (GW)

Utilities 

Coal (existing) 19.5 19.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 19.0 16.5 14.0 14.0 ‐1.6% 19.5 18.3 17.0 17.0 ‐0.7% 19.3 17.4 15.5 15.5 ‐1.2%

Coal (upgraded) 1.0 3.5 6.0 6.0 .. 0.5 1.8 3.0 3.0 .. 0.8 2.6 4.5 4.5 ..

Coal 19.5 19.5 19.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0% 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0% 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0%

Oil .. .. ..

Natural gas 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.0% 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.0% 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 0.0%

Nuclear 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 0.6% 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 0.3% 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 0.6%

Hydro 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 6.0 6.0 1.0% 4.8 4.8 6.0 6.0 1.0% 4.8 4.8 6.0 6.0 1.0%

Electricity demand and supply Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Solar/wind/other 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.6 3.0 6.0 7.0 13.9% 1.6 3.0 6.0 7.0 13.9% 1.6 3.0 6.0 7.0 13.9%

Biofuels and waste 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

CHP 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.0% 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.0% 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.0%

Total capacity 48.6 49.1 49.3 52.5 53.9 58.1 59.1 0.8% 51.5 52.9 57.1 58.1 0.7% 52.5 53.9 58.1 59.1 0.8%

Capacity factor

Utilities 

Coal (existing) 29% 26% 38% 44% 43% 23% 29% 30% 47% 0.4% 24% 28% 26% 32% ‐1.4% 17% 16% 7% 11% ‐6.1%

Coal (upgraded) 80% 80% 80% 80% .. 80% 80% 80% 80% .. 80% 80% 80% 80% ..

Coal 29% 26% 38% 44% 43% 26% 38% 45% 57% 1.3% 26% 33% 34% 39% ‐0.5% 20% 24% 24% 26% ‐2.2%

Oil .. .. ..

Natural gas 35% 30% 9% 5% 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 1.6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 1.6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 1.6%

Nuclear 64% 73% 74% 74% 69% 80% 80% 80% 80% 0.7% 80% 80% 80% 80% 0.7% 80% 80% 80% 80% 0.7%

Hydro 31% 25% 33% 28% 28% 28% 28% ‐0.7% 28% 28% 28% 28% ‐0.7% 28% 28% 28% 28% ‐0.7%

Solar/wind/other 3% 35% 35% 25% 25% 25% 25% ‐1.5% 25% 25% 25% 25% ‐1.5% 25% 25% 25% 25% ‐1.5%

Biofuels and waste 0% 80% 80% 80% 80% .. 80% 80% 80% 80% .. 80% 80% 80% 80% ..

Average thermal plant efficiency for electricity

Utilities

Coal (existing) 28% 31% 32% 32% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0%

Coal (upgraded) 46% 46% 46% 46% .. 46% 46% 46% 46% .. 46% 46% 46% 46% ..

Coal 28% 31% 32% 32% 33% 33% 34% 37% 39% 37% 0.6% 33% 35% 36% 36% 0.4% 34% 37% 42% 41% 1.0%

Oil 32% 32% 32% 34% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 0.0% 32% 32% 32% 32% 0.0% 32% 32% 32% 32% 0.0%

Natural gas 32% 32% 32% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 0.0% 39% 39% 39% 39% 0.0% 39% 39% 39% 39% 0.0%

Nuclear 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0%

Hydro 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0%

Solar/wind/other 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0%

Biofuels and waste 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0%

Coal ‐ CHP 31% 31% 29% 22% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 0.0% 17% 17% 17% 17% 0.0% 17% 17% 17% 17% 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP .. 32% 32% 23% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 0.0% 42% 42% 42% 42% 0.0% 42% 42% 42% 42% 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 40% 32% 27% 23% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0.0% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0.0% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0.0%

Nuclear ‐ CHP 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0%

Biofuels ‐ CHP 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0.0% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0.0% 25% 25% 25% 25% 0.0%

Coal (existing)

Autoproducers

Coal 25% 25% 23% 36% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 0.0% 39% 39% 39% 39% 0.0% 39% 39% 39% 39% 0.0%

Oil .. .. .. 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 0.0% 35% 35% 35% 35% 0.0% 35% 35% 35% 35% 0.0%

Natural gas .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Nuclear 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0%

Hydro 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0%

Solar/wind/other 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0.0%

Biofuels and waste .. .. .. 37% 37% 37% 37% 37% 37% 37% 0.0% 37% 37% 37% 37% 0.0% 37% 37% 37% 37% 0.0%

Coal ‐ CHP .. .. .. 18% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0.0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0.0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP .. .. .. 13% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 0.0% 7% 7% 7% 7% 0.0% 7% 7% 7% 7% 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 28% 30% 30% 11% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 0.0% 13% 13% 13% 13% 0.0% 13% 13% 13% 13% 0.0%

Nuclear ‐ CHP 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 0.0%

Biofuels ‐ CHP .. .. .. 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0%

Average thermal plant efficiency for CHP

Utilities 

Coal ‐ CHP 84% 84% 81% 72% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 68% 0.0% 68% 68% 68% 68% 0.0% 68% 68% 68% 68% 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP .. 83% 81% 73% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 0.0% 76% 76% 76% 76% 0.0% 76% 76% 76% 76% 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 86% 83% 83% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% 0.0% 76% 76% 76% 76% 0.0% 76% 76% 76% 76% 0.0%

Biomass ‐ CHP .. .. .. .. .. 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 0.0% 75% 75% 75% 75% 0.0% 75% 75% 75% 75% 0.0%

Autoproducers

Coal ‐ CHP .. .. .. 82% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 62% 0.0% 62% 62% 62% 62% 0.0% 62% 62% 62% 62% 0.0%

Oil ‐ CHP  .. .. .. 76% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 0.0% 55% 55% 55% 55% 0.0% 55% 55% 55% 55% 0.0%

Natural gas ‐ CHP 86% 77% 79% 93% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 0.0% 83% 83% 83% 83% 0.0% 83% 83% 83% 83% 0.0%

Biomass ‐ CHP .. .. .. 51% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 52% 0.0% 52% 52% 52% 52% 0.0% 52% 52% 52% 52% 0.0%

Heat demand and supply Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Supply

Utilities CHP

Coal 153 66 153 398 580 588 588 588 588 588 0.0% 588 588 588 588 0.0% 588 588 588 588 0.0%

Oil 0 70 9 44 15 12 12 12 12 12 0.0% 12 12 12 12 0.0% 12 12 12 12 0.0%

Natural gas 2,442 1,806 3,443 2,127 1,914 1,615 1,559 1,559 1,559 1,559 ‐0.2% 1,583 1,583 1,583 1,583 ‐0.1% 1,559 1,517 1,517 1,517 ‐0.3%

Nuclear 0 0 0 153 163 163 163 163 163 163 0.0% 163 163 163 163 0.0% 163 163 163 163 0.0%

biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Autoproducers CHP

Coal 0 0 0 707 679 685 685 685 685 685 0.0% 685 685 685 685 0.0% 685 685 685 685 0.0%

Oil 0 0 0 66 21 17 17 17 17 17 0.0% 17 17 17 17 0.0% 17 17 17 17 0.0%

Natural gas 1,400 611 645 1,262 1,373 1,152 1,152 1,152 1,152 1,152 0.0% 1,152 1,152 1,152 1,152 0.0% 1,152 1,152 1,152 1,152 0.0%

Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Biomass 0 0 0 162 206 232 232 232 232 232 0.0% 232 232 232 232 0.0% 232 232 232 232 0.0%

Utilities

Coal 0 0 20 970 874 874 874 874 874 874 0.0% 874 874 874 874 0.0% 874 874 874 874 0.0%

Oil 6,655 560 1 82 82 82 82 82 82 82 0.0% 82 82 82 82 0.0% 82 82 82 82 0.0%

Natural gas 26,784 14,189 10,424 8,805 8,328 8,423 7,985 9,218 10,197 11,343 1.4% 7,616 8,294 8,739 9,159 0.4% 7,175 7,407 7,364 7,290 ‐0.7%

Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 .. .. ..

Biomass 0 0 0 40 32 32 32 32 32 32 0.0% 32 32 32 32 0.0% 32 32 32 32 0.0%

Autoproducers

Coal 208 124 120 49 51 51 51 51 51 51 0.0% 51 51 51 51 0.0% 51 51 51 51 0.0%

Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Natural gas 3,421 411 2,088 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 .. .. ..

Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Total generation 41,063 17,837 16,902 14,864 14,317 13,926 13,432 14,665 15,643 16,789 0.9% 13,087 13,765 14,210 14,630 0.2% 12,622 12,812 12,769 12,695 ‐0.4%

Required generation 41,055 17,834 16,899 14,861 14,314 13,926 13,432 14,665 15,643 16,789 0.9% 13,087 13,765 14,210 14,630 0.2% 12,622 12,812 12,769 12,695 ‐0.4%

Disposition

Energy sector excl. statistical differences 10,383 4,565 4,336 2,305 2,375 2,224 2,221 2,366 2,411 2,470 0.5% 2,197 2,281 2,294 2,307 0.2% 2,141 2,169 2,130 2,092 ‐0.3%

Residential  14,250 6,135 5,803 5,140 4,682 4,667 4,520 4,530 4,511 4,486 ‐0.2% 4,464 4,415 4,339 4,247 ‐0.4% 4,296 4,082 3,853 3,623 ‐1.1%

Commercial 0 0 0 2,387 2,328 2,808 2,840 3,344 3,836 4,393 2.1% 2,767 3,071 3,344 3,603 1.1% 2,720 2,943 3,126 3,284 0.7%

Agriculture 0 0 0 329 312 276 288 337 388 448 2.2% 274 304 333 360 1.2% 260 275 288 298 0.3%

 Industry 16,422 7,133 6,759 4,625 4,543 3,951 3,562 4,088 4,497 4,993 1.1% 3,386 3,694 3,901 4,113 0.2% 3,206 3,342 3,372 3,398 ‐0.7%

Total domestic use 41,055 17,834 16,899 14,786 14,241 13,926 13,432 14,665 15,643 16,789 0.9% 13,087 13,765 14,210 14,630 0.2% 12,622 12,812 12,769 12,695 ‐0.4%

Statistical differences 0 0 0 75 74 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Average thermal plant efficiency

Utilities 

Coal  0% .. 44% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 0.0% 92% 92% 92% 92% 0.0% 92% 92% 92% 92% 0.0%

Oil 76% 82% 83% 82% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 0.0% 88% 88% 88% 88% 0.0% 88% 88% 88% 88% 0.0%

Natural Gas  90% 83% 82% 95% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 97% 0.0% 97% 97% 97% 97% 0.0% 97% 97% 97% 97% 0.0%

Biomass .. .. .. 60% 64% 64% 64% 64% 64% 64% 0.0% 64% 64% 64% 64% 0.0% 64% 64% 64% 64% 0.0%

Autoproducers

Coal  40% 40% 40% 69% 74% 74% 74% 74% 74% 74% 0.0% 74% 74% 74% 74% 0.0% 74% 74% 74% 74% 0.0%

Oil .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Natural Gas  34% 7% 46% .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Biomass .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Energy requirements

Utilities

Coal 418 0 44 1,062 949 1,224 949 949 949 949 ‐1.2% 949 949 949 949 ‐1.2% 949 949 949 949 ‐1.2%

Oil 8,701 679 1 100 93 143 93 93 93 93 ‐1.9% 93 93 93 93 ‐1.9% 93 93 93 93 ‐1.9%

Natural gas 29,751 17,090 12,708 9,255 8,569 8,105 8,217 9,485 10,492 11,671 1.7% 7,837 8,534 8,992 9,424 0.7% 7,383 7,622 7,578 7,501 ‐0.4%

Biomass 0 0 0 66 50 76 50 50 50 50 ‐1.9% 50 50 50 50 ‐1.9% 50 50 50 50 ‐1.9%

Autoproducers

Coal 519 311 300 71 68 68 68 68 68 68 0.0% 68 68 68 68 0.0% 68 68 68 68 0.0%

Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Natural gas 9,917 5,697 4,558 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Coal and peat demand and supply Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Supply

Production    86,808 36,345 34,688 33,716 40,256 40,663 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1% 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1% 35,000 35,000 33,500 32,000 ‐1.1%

Imports 10,597 4,042 4,518 7,793 9,926 9,022 3,232 9,259 12,331 19,537 3.6% 2,661 6,185 7,427 11,173 1.0% ‐1,052 515 ‐195 1,915 ‐6.8%

Exports ‐14,929 ‐1,842 ‐1,894 ‐4,820 ‐5,192 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 0.0% ‐6,298 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 0.0% ‐6,298 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 ‐6,298 0.0%

Stock changes 542 0 2 1,562 ‐2,272 ‐1,961 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100%

Net available supply  83,019 38,545 37,314 38,251 42,718 41,427 31,934 37,961 39,533 45,239 0.4% 31,363 34,887 34,629 36,875 ‐0.5% 27,650 29,217 27,007 27,617 ‐1.8%

Disposition

Industry 17,984 7,300 8,357 7,189 8,310 7,447 6,758 7,612 7,616 7,664 0.1% 6,426 6,928 6,887 6,869 ‐0.4% 6,089 6,275 5,964 5,686 ‐1.2%

Residential and Commercial 5,526 2,585 1,288 653 876 843 821 843 860 878 0.2% 810 814 813 809 ‐0.2% 736 678 621 567 ‐1.8%

Agriculture 2028 88 974 17 14 12 13 15 17 19 2.2% 12 13 14 16 1.2% 11 12 13 13 0.3%

Other non‐specified .. .. ..

Non‐energy use 0 0 1,290 486 391 384 402 472 546 633 2.3% 382 426 468 508 1.3% 382 426 468 508 1.3%

Main activity producer electricity plants 33,555 13,702 12,203 17,299 20,379 19,867 11,489 15,709 17,375 23,088 0.7% 11,624 14,092 14,011 16,393 ‐0.9% 8,671 9,883 8,448 9,757 ‐3.2%

Autoproducer electricity plants 721 431 1,402 19 43 42 42 42 42 42 0.0% 42 42 42 42 0.0% 42 42 42 42 0.0%

Main activity producer CHP plants 288 125 302 805 1,150 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 0.0% 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 0.0% 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159 0.0%

Autoproducer CHP plants 0 0 0 1,108 1,151 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 0.0% 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 0.0% 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 0.0%

Main producer heat  418 0 44 1,062 949 1,224 949 949 949 949 ‐1.2% 949 949 949 949 ‐1.2% 949 949 949 949 ‐1.2%

Autoproducer heat  519 311 300 71 68 68 68 68 68 68 0.0% 68 68 68 68 0.0% 68 68 68 68 0.0%

Energy (blasts furnaces/coke ovens) 17,548 12,001 9,223 7,423 7,317 7,248 6,967 7,827 7,703 7,605 0.2% 6,625 7,131 7,018 6,929 ‐0.2% 6,277 6,459 6,077 5,736 ‐1.1%

Energy producers  3,688 1,902 2,115 1,812 1,769 1,424 1,557 1,557 1,491 1,424 0.0% 1,557 1,557 1,491 1,424 0.0% 1,557 1,557 1,491 1,424 0.0%

Others ‐2,202 ‐81 117 314 307 549 549 549 549 549 0.0% 549 549 549 549 0.0% 549 549 549 549 0.0%

Net Domestic Demand                   80,073 38,365 37,613 38,257 42,725 41,428 31,935 37,962 39,534 45,240 0.4% 31,364 34,888 34,630 36,876 ‐0.5% 27,651 29,218 27,008 27,618 ‐1.8%

Statistical differences 2,945 181 ‐299 ‐6 ‐7 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 0.0% ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 0.0% ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 ‐1 0.0%

Oil demand and supply Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Crude oil supply

Production 5,274 3,707 4,392 3,590 3,414 3,167 3,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 1.1% 3,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 1.1% 3,000 3,000 3,500 4,000 1.1%

Imports 53,365 6,053 15,039 7,885 1,625 849 849 849 849 849 0.0% 849 849 849 849 0.0% 849 849 849 849 0.0%

Exports 0 ‐278 ‐98 ‐37 ‐66 ‐36 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100%

Stock changes 0 0 476 59 77 ‐1 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100%

Net crude Supply 58,639 9,481 19,810 11,497 5,050 3,979 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9% 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9% 3,849 3,849 4,349 4,849 0.9%

Petroleum products supply

Imports 22,385 4,878 2,146 6,029 8,370 7,258 6,943 8,216 8,971 9,885 1.4% 6,472 7,158 7,244 7,261 0.0% 5,772 5,863 5,351 4,774 ‐1.9%

Exports ‐21,513 ‐2,157 ‐7,504 ‐4,066 ‐1,679 ‐960 ‐960 ‐960 ‐960 ‐960 0.0% ‐960 ‐960 ‐960 ‐960 0.0% ‐960 ‐960 ‐960 ‐960 0.0%

International bunkers ‐2,063 ‐262 ‐374 ‐274 ‐306 ‐126 ‐126 ‐126 ‐126 ‐126 0.0% ‐126 ‐126 ‐126 ‐126 0.0% ‐126 ‐126 ‐126 ‐126 0.0%

Stock changes 1,020 0 306 ‐7 174 ‐244 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100%

Net petroleum products supply ‐172 2,460 ‐5,426 1,682 6,559 5,928 5,857 7,130 7,885 8,799 1.8% 5,386 6,072 6,158 6,175 0.2% 4,686 4,777 4,265 3,688 ‐2.1%

Net oil supply  58,467 11,941 14,384 13,179 11,609 9,907 9,706 10,979 12,234 13,648 1.5% 9,235 9,921 10,507 11,024 0.5% 8,535 8,626 8,614 8,537 ‐0.7%

Disposition

Industry 8,969 1,206 1,631 1,361 1,246 1,028 923 1,060 1,185 1,336 1.2% 878 958 1,022 1,087 0.3% 832 867 885 900 ‐0.6%

Transportation 18,135 6,741 7,658 8,525 8,588 8,175 7,999 8,766 9,506 10,320 1.1% 7,678 8,057 8,362 8,605 0.2% 7,104 7,012 6,853 6,648 ‐0.9%

Residential and commercial 3,125 318 584 134 148 119 115 127 138 151 1.1% 112 118 123 127 0.3% 107 107 106 103 ‐0.6%

Agriculture 5,969 1,110 1,252 1,263 1,364 1,396 1,457 1,703 1,965 2,267 2.2% 1,385 1,537 1,682 1,821 1.2% 1,313 1,392 1,456 1,507 0.3%

Non‐energy use 6,466 1,213 1,810 963 817 565 591 694 803 931 2.3% 562 626 688 748 1.3% 562 626 688 748 1.3%

Main activity electricity plants 12,837 178 138 50 40 37 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100%

Autoproducer electricity plants 0 0 0 54 33 31 31 31 31 31 0.0% 31 31 31 31 0.0% 31 31 31 31 0.0%

Main activity  CHP plants 0 139 18 90 45 36 36 36 36 36 0.0% 36 36 36 36 0.0% 36 36 36 36 0.0%

Autoproducer CHP plants 0 0 0 106 44 35 35 35 35 35 0.0% 35 35 35 35 0.0% 35 35 35 35 0.0%

Main activity producer heat plants 8,701 679 1 100 93 143 93 93 93 93 ‐1.9% 93 93 93 93 ‐1.9% 93 93 93 93 ‐1.9%

Autoproducer heat plants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Energy producers and losses 2,197 196 967 521 357 337 306 314 328 343 0.1% 305 310 323 336 0.0% 304 307 319 331 ‐0.1%

Process gains(‐)/losses(+) ‐2,497 162 338 ‐241 ‐170 ‐166 ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2% ‐51 ‐51 ‐58 ‐65 ‐4.2%

Others 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0%

Net  Demand                   63,903 11,941 14,397 12,926 12,605 11,737 11,536 12,809 14,064 15,478 1.3% 11,065 11,751 12,337 12,854 0.4% 10,365 10,456 10,444 10,367 ‐0.6%

Statistical differences ‐5,436 0 ‐13 253 ‐995 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 0.0% ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 0.0% ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 ‐1,830 0.0%

Total crude oil imports 53,365 6,053 15,039 7,885 1,625 849 849 849 849 849 0.0% 849 849 849 849 0.0% 849 849 849 849 0.0%

Net petroleum product imports 872 2,722 ‐5,358 1,963 6,691 6,298 5,983 7,256 8,011 8,925 1.6% 5,512 6,198 6,284 6,301 0.0% 4,812 4,903 4,391 3,814 ‐2.3%

Natural gas demand and supply Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

(ktoe) 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Supply

Production 22,593 14,996 17,432 15,426 15,403 16,022 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 1.0% 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 1.0% 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 1.0%

Production (Coal‐to‐gas) .. .. ..

Imports 73,462 49,659 50,477 29,551 26,590 22,589 17,071 19,411 21,088 23,207 0.1% 15,918 16,740 16,944 17,081 ‐1.3% 14,596 14,042 12,953 11,823 ‐2.9%

Exports 0 ‐2,404 ‐2,227 ‐5 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Stock changes ‐4,227 0 1,764 10,256 1,024 834 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100% 0 0 0 0 ‐100%

Total Supply 91,828 62,251 67,445 55,229 43,018 39,445 34,071 37,411 40,088 43,207 0.4% 32,918 34,740 35,944 37,081 ‐0.3% 31,596 32,042 31,953 31,823 ‐1.0%

Production TCM (at 20'C) 29.6 19.6 22.8 20.2 20.2 21.0 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.2 1.0% 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.2 1.0% 22.3 23.6 24.9 26.2 1.0%

Disposition

Industry 23,289 11,949 10,821 6,437 5,272 4,360 3,942 4,478 4,710 5,005 0.6% 3,748 4,063 4,168 4,282 ‐0.1% 3,551 3,680 3,609 3,545 ‐0.9%

Transport 0 2,900 3,248 3,303 2,050 2,303 2,044 2,245 2,408 2,598 0.5% 1,953 2,069 2,145 2,212 ‐0.2% 1,888 1,923 1,918 1,909 ‐0.9%

Residential and commercial 9,933 13,658 14,879 14,411 14,222 14,080 9,296 9,841 10,261 10,732 ‐1.2% 8,973 9,164 9,228 9,265 ‐1.9% 8,425 8,060 7,602 7,147 ‐3.0%

Agriculture 0 0 120 133 153 200 209 244 282 325 2.2% 198 220 241 261 1.2% 188 199 209 216 0.3%

Non‐energy use 0 0 5,475 4,112 4,908 3,983 4,147 4,871 5,644 6,542 2.3% 3,944 4,395 4,831 5,255 1.3% 3,944 4,395 4,831 5,255 1.3%

Main activity electricity plants 4,638 3,144 2,699 688 396 314 441 441 441 441 1.6% 441 441 441 441 1.6% 441 441 441 441 1.6%

Autoproducer electricity plants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Main activity CHP plants 5,366 3,638 6,222 4,028 3,833 3,205 3,093 3,093 3,093 3,093 ‐0.2% 3,141 3,141 3,141 3,141 ‐0.1% 3,093 3,009 3,009 3,009 ‐0.3%

Autoproducer CHP plants 2,449 1,312 1,354 1,531 1,969 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 0.0% 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 0.0% 1,646 1,646 1,646 1,646 0.0%

Main producer heat plants 29,751 17,090 12,708 9,255 8,569 8,105 8,217 9,485 10,492 11,671 1.7% 7,837 8,534 8,992 9,424 0.7% 7,383 7,622 7,578 7,501 ‐0.4%

Autoproducer heat plants 9,917 5,697 4,558 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 ..

Energy producers 4,251 1,350 1,336 1,076 920 799 587 616 660 704 ‐0.6% 587 616 660 704 1.0% 587 616 660 704 1.0%

Losses 2,234 1,514 1,641 682 483 472 472 472 472 472 0.0% 472 472 472 472 0.0% 472 472 472 472 0.0%

Others 0 0 20 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0% 1 1 1 1 0.0%

Domestic demand excl. pipeline 91,828 59,351 61,834 42,352 40,725 37,165 32,050 35,189 37,702 40,632 0.4% 30,989 32,694 33,821 34,892 ‐0.3% 29,731 30,142 30,058 29,937 ‐0.9%

Pipeline fuel 0 2,900 3,248 3,303 2,050 2,303 2,044 2,245 2,408 2,598 0.5% 1,953 2,069 2,145 2,212 ‐0.2% 1,888 1,923 1,918 1,909 ‐0.9%

Domestic Demand incl. pipeline 91,828 62,251 65,082 45,655 42,776 39,468 34,094 37,434 40,111 43,230 0.4% 32,941 34,763 35,967 37,104 ‐0.3% 31,619 32,065 31,976 31,846 ‐0.9%

Statistical differences 0 0 2,363 9,573 242 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 0.0% ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 0.0% ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 ‐23 0.0%

Others Higher growth case Reference case Efficient case

1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035 2020 2025 2030 2035

2013/

2035

Energy related CO2 emissions (Mt)

Coal 283 116 123 132 150 145 112 134 139 159 0.4% 110 122 121 129 ‐0.5% 96 102 94 96 ‐1.9%

Oil 195 34 38 37 36 32 31 35 38 42 1.3% 30 32 33 35 0.4% 28 28 28 27 ‐0.7%

Natural gas 209 142 144 102 95 89 77 83 87 93 0.2% 75 78 80 81 ‐0.4% 72 72 70 69 ‐1.1%

Total 688 292 306 272 281 266 220 251 265 294 0.5% 214 232 235 246 ‐0.4% 195 201 192 192 ‐1.5%

Net imports (Mtoe)

Coal ‐4.3 2.2 2.6 3.0 4.7 2.7 ‐3.1 3.0 6.0 13.2 7.5% ‐3.6 ‐0.1 1.1 4.9 2.7% ‐7.3 ‐5.8 ‐6.5 ‐4.4 ..

Oil 54.2 8.5 9.6 9.8 8.2 7.1 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.8 1.5% 6.4 7.0 7.1 7.1 0.0% 5.7 5.8 5.2 4.7 ‐1.9%

Natural gas 73.5 47.3 48.2 29.5 26.6 22.6 17.1 19.4 21.1 23.2 0.1% 15.9 16.7 16.9 17.1 ‐1.3% 14.6 14.0 13.0 11.8 ‐2.9%

Total 127.7 55.8 57.8 39.4 34.8 29.7 23.9 27.5 29.9 33.0 0.5% 22.3 23.8 24.1 24.2 ‐0.9% 20.3 19.8 18.2 16.5 ‐2.6%

Value of net imports  ($2013 million)

Coal 335 ‐469 474 1,008 2,307 9.2% ‐556 ‐18 189 850 4.3% ‐1,123 ‐925 ‐1,085 ‐764 ..

Oil 4,974 5,434 7,113 8,445 9,718 3.1% 5,060 6,185 6,798 7,109 1.6% 4,503 5,049 4,994 4,637 ‐0.3%

Natural gas 9,502 7,790 9,475 11,046 12,525 1.3% 7,264 8,171 8,875 9,218 ‐0.1% 6,661 6,854 6,785 6,381 ‐1.8%

Total 14,810 12,756 17,062 20,499 24,550 2.3% 11,768 14,338 15,862 17,177 0.7% 10,041 10,977 10,694 10,254 ‐1.7%

Prices IEA current policies  IEA current policies  IEA current policies 

OECD Steam coal ($2013/tonne) 86 107 112 117 122 1.6% 107 112 117 122 1.6% 107 112 117 122 1.6%

Crude oil ($2013/bbl) 102 116 128 139 145 1.6% 116 128 139 145 1.6% 116 128 139 145 1.6%

Natural gas ($2013/Mbtu) 10.6 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.6 1.1% 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.6 1.1% 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.6 1.1%