ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the predict field experiment
DESCRIPTION
Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment. Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS / U. Miami) Ryan Torn (SUNY at Albany ) Fuqing Zhang (Penn State) Acknowledgments: all PREDICT PIs and Forecasters. 65 th IHC, Miami, FL. 03/01/11. The problem. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment
Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS / U. Miami)Ryan Torn (SUNY at Albany)Fuqing Zhang (Penn State)
Acknowledgments: all PREDICT PIs and Forecasters
65th IHC, Miami, FL. 03/01/11
![Page 2: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Only ~20% of tropical waves develop into depressions.• Need to advance understanding of the physical differences
between developing and non-developing systems.• Tropical cyclone formation is a multi-scale process, which
depends on– Large-scale environment in which it is embedded– Wave’s structure (low-level vorticity, mid-level moisture)– Convective-scale processes: hot towers etc.
• Seek to investigate utility of ensemble forecasts– Global; Regional; Convective-scale
The problem
![Page 3: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• Offer a longer-term outlook (>1 week) on the potential for a tropical disturbance to develop.– Scatter of forecasts depicting critical values of
• Area-averaged vorticity• Geopotential thickness anomaly• Okubo-Weiss parameter
– Probabilities of exceedance of critical values of• Vertical wind shear• Lower-tropospheric relative humidity• Upper level divergence / lower-level convergence
• Offer hypotheses on processes that lead to errors in large-scale conditioning (and thereby inaccurate representations of smaller-scale processes)
![Page 4: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Example: Genesis of Karl (AL13; PGI44L)
• Monsoon-like trough predicted to meander northward from the northern coast of South America into the southern Caribbean.
• ECMWF ensemble forecasts of– (TOP) 700-850 hPa relative vorticity averaged over
disk of radius 300 km– (BOTTOM) 200-850 hPa thickness anomaly:
Z(r=250 km) – Z(r=1000 km)• All initialized on 00 UTC, 8 Sept 2010• 7 days prior to genesis
![Page 5: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 6: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 7: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 8: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 9: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 10: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 11: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 12: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 13: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 14: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 15: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 16: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 17: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 18: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
X
X
average rel. vort. (x 10-5 s-1)
![Page 19: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Example: Genesis of Karl (AL13; PGI44L)
• 7-day forecasts of– Probability that 700 hPa RH > 70%– Okubo-Weiss parameter (vorticity^2 – strain rate^2):
indicator of strongly curved flow with minimum horizontal shearing deformation
![Page 20: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 21: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 22: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 23: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 24: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 25: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 26: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 27: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 28: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 29: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 30: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 31: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 32: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
![Page 33: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
X
X
Contours of O-W: 2 x 10-9 s-2
X
X
![Page 34: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Example: Genesis of Karl (AL13; PGI44L)
• Genesis occurred just before 00 UTC, 15 Sep
• Next two “loops”– 9- through 0- day ensemble forecasts of area-
averaged relative vorticity valid at genesis time– Same but displayed as PDFs
![Page 35: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
9-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 36: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
8-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 37: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
7-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 38: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
6-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 39: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
5-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 40: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
4-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 41: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
3-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 42: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
2-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 43: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
1-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 44: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
0-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 45: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
9-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 46: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
8-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 47: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
7-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 48: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
6-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 49: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
5-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 50: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
4-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 51: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
3-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 52: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
2-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 53: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
1-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 54: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
0-day forecast for 00 UTC 15 Sep
![Page 55: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
How to verify ensemble forecasts?
• Verify each ensemble member individually to determine whether they meet some threshold criteria for genesis.
• Could examine area-averaged vorticity and thickness anomaly exceeding a critical value
![Page 56: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Regional ensembles: WRF/EnKF
![Page 57: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Larger variance in position and minimum SLP
Tighter PDF, closer to verification values
R. Torn
Min SLP• lowest 1/3• middle 1/3• highest
1/3
WRF-ARW / EnKF36/12 km96 mem
![Page 58: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
F. Zhang
WRF-ARW / EnKF40.5/13.5/4.5 km60 mem DA30 mem fcst
Earlier forecasts developed Karl too soon; error
reduced in subsequent
cycles.
![Page 59: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Future Work• Produce community real-time ensemble products
in 2011 from NCEP GEFS (+ others?)• Determine viable objective criteria for genesis;
explore tracking mechanisms• Evaluate TIGGE ensemble predictions versus their
own respective analyses• Comparison with Torn ensemble sensitivity (WRF)• Detailed investigation of processes that are
adequately / inadequately captured in ensemble members: what are the key limitations?
![Page 60: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
700-850 hPa Area-averaged Vorticity
200-
850
hP
a T
hic
knes
s A
no
mal
y
NCEP GFS Analyses 2007-9: TD
![Page 61: Ensemble-based prediction and diagnostics during the PREDICT field experiment](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110103/5681458c550346895db274f8/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
TIGGE: considerably
different quantitative values of all
fields relevant to genesis.