Extended Energy Snapshot (Ex SS Model) – Iskandar Malaysia

HO C S, Matusoka Y, Gomi, Janice, Yoshimoto

September 17,

2009

Tsukuba, Japan

Key Design Characteristics

Participating Model: ExSS (Extended Tool Snapshot)Model Type: Energy Integrated Model

Participating Modelers: Matsuoka Yuzuru, Gomi Kei, Shimada Koji, Yoshimoto Kohsuke, Janice Simson and Ho Chin SiongTime Step: 1 yearTime Frame: 2005 to 2025Solution Type: Static, Accounting methodEquilibrium Type: Market EquilibriumUnderlying Computing Framework: General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMs) and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

Inputs and Outputs

Key inputsDemographics: population by region/ local authority, population composition ratio by sex and age cohort, average household size.Economic: Labor force participation ratio by sex and age cohort, Export value (demand of goods and services from other areas by industrial classification), Import rate (rate supplied from industry outside the area, among the demand of goods and service within the area.), Government expenditure (gov. consumption expenditure, gov. fixed capital formation)Resources: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricity.Technology: Technology representations of production, transformation and use technologies.

Key outputsEconomic: GDP, Gross output by sectors (primary, secondary & tertiary industry), passenger transport & freight transportEnergy: Energy balance table, GHG emission inventory. Emissions: CO2 emissions by sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, passenger transport & freight transport)Climate: GHG reduction by measures .

Regional Scope & Other Detail

Regional Profile:Regional Scope: District levelNumber of Sub-Regions: five Flagship zons: Johor Bahru City Center, Nusajaya, Western Gateway Development (Pontian), Eastern Gateway Development (Pasir Gudang), Senai-Skudai.

Other Details:Energy Demand Sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industry, Freight Transportation, Passenger Transportation, Energy Supply Sectors: Coal & gas, crude oil, petroleum product, renewable energy, nuclear, hydro power, and electricityOther Sectors: -

5

LCS scenario study using ExSS

Wage Income

Export by goods

Government expenditure

Investment

Import ratio

Input coefficient matrix

Labor productivity Labor participation ratio

Household size

Consumption pattern

Demographic compositionTaxation and social security

Floor area per output

Freight generation per output

Transport distance

Modal share

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal share

Energy service demand per driving force

Fuel shareEnergy efficiency

CO2 emission factor

IO analysis

Output by industry

Consumption

Labor demand Population

Number of household

Output of commercial

industry

Commercial building

floor area

Freight transport demand

Passenger transport demand

Population

Energy demand

CO2 emission

Output of manufacturing

industry

Carbon sink

Methodology developed by Shimada et.al (2006), Gomi et. Al (2007)

6

Setting of Framework

Base Year : 2005

Target Year 2025

Emission Target

30% reduction of CO²

per capita from 2005 to 2025 with Counter

Measures

50% reduction of CO²

emission from 2025BaU to 2025CM

Scenarios

2025 BaU (business as usual) without Counter measures

2025 CM with Counter measures

Sensitivity analysis

Economic activity level

Commuting structure

Socio Economic Scenario of IM

7

232%

Energy Demand By Sector

8

10,936

5,9155,915

3,286

Energy Demand by Energy Sources

9

10

45,484

19,58919,589

12,552

GHG Emission By Sector

Potential Mitigation in IM

11

57%262%

52%

Mitigation Measures

12

13

6. Conclusion

14

Model application in other regions

Kyoto

Shiga

Iskandar Malaysia

Ahmedabad

AIM Training Workshop on LCS studies at NIES, 31 August – 11 September. 2009

Thank you for your attention!