findings from the 2019 american values survey...replacing our cultural and ethnic background. it is...

Robert P. Jones, Ph.D. | @robertpjones

#AVS2019

Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization ahead of 2020 Presidential Election

Findings from the 2019 American Values Survey

@RobertPJonesRobert P. Jones, Ph.D.

2

• Tenth Annual American Values Survey, hosted by The Brookings

Institution

• Survey of 2,527 adults in AmeriSpeak, a probability-based panel run

by NORC at University of Chicago, conducted 08/22-09/15, 2019.

• Supplemental survey of 1,032 adults conducted 10/10-13, 2019.

• Supported by Carnegie Corporation of New York, Unitarian

Universalist Veatch Program at Shelter Rock, and the New World

Foundation.

The 2019 American Values Survey

FRACTURED NATION:

DRAMATIC PARTISAN POLARIZATION

4

Partisan Flips on Direction of the Country

7

74

21

34

42

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2016 2019Sources: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey; PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.

Country Heading in the Right Direction, 2016 vs. 2019, by Party AffiliationPercent who agree

Republican Independent Democrat

5

No Partisan Overlap in Top Three Critical Issues

77

72

63

50

49

46

48

17

26

63

60

50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Health Care

Climate Change

Foreign Interferencein U.S. Elections

Terrorism

Immigration

Crime

Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.

Percent who rate the following issues as critical

Democrat Republican

6

Large Partisan Divides about Changing Norms and Demographics

65

69

63

55

41

43

31

36

26

21

20

35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Society as a whole has become too softand feminine.

Discrimination against whites hasbecome as big a problem as

discrimination against blacks and…

Immigrants are invading our country andreplacing our cultural and ethnic

background.

It is necessary to believe in God in orderto be moral and have good values.


Percent who agree


7

Democrats Believe Republican Party Has Been

Taken Over by Racists

94

49

17

5

48

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Percent who say...

The Republican Party is trying to protect the American way of life againist outside threats.

The Republican Party has been taken over by racists.

8

Republicans believe Democratic Party Has Been

Taken Over by Socialists

17

50

8382

46

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90



Percent who say...

The Democratic Party is trying to make capitalism work for the average American.

The Democratic Party has been taken over by socialists.

9

68

52

40

29

45

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80



Percent who say capitalism is...

A system in which government stays out of the way and allows private businesses to succeedand make a profit.

A system where the interests of businesses and company shareholders are placed above theinterests of workers and the middle class.

Divergent Partisan Conceptions of Capitalism

10

Divergent Partisan Conceptions of Socialism

38

49

6561

50

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70



Percent who say socialism is...

A system in which government provides citizens with health insurance, retirement supportand access to free higher education.

A system where the government controls key parts of the economy such as utilities,transportation and communication industry.

11

Partisan Divides on Restrictive Immigration Scale

89

55

32

11

45

68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100



Percent who...

Favor Oppose

12

BUT More Partisan Agreement on

Path to Citizenship and Family Separation

51

67

80

54

75

91

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Republican Independent DemocratSource: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.

Percent who...

FAVOR: Allowing immigrants living in country illegally a way to become citizens, provided theymeet certain requirements.

OPPOSE: An immigration border policy that separates children from their parents and chargesparents as criminals when they enter the country without permission

2020 AND SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRATIC

CANDIDATES:

AMONG DEMOCRATS AND LEANERS

14

Favorability of Top Five Democratic Candidates

42

50

60

68

74

18

21

17

23

20

40

29

23

8

6

1

1

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Elizabeth Warren

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know enough to say Don't know/Refused

15

Top Three Choices for Democratic Nominee for President

19

1

1

3

1

3

1

4

7

16

16

24

14

1

2

3

2

2

6

4

11

16

14

10

2

1

4

3

6

4

5

7

9

8

0 10 20 30 40 50

Undecided

Will not vote in…

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Julián Castro

Cory Booker

Beto O’Rourke

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Joe Biden


Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents

First Choice Second Choice Third Choice

2020 AND SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRATIC

CANDIDATES:

AMONG UNCOMMITTED AMERICANS

17

One Third of Americans Say 2020 Vote will Depend on Democratic

Nominee

28 29 31

3740

43

3329

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

All Americans Registered Voters Likely VotersSource: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.

Thinking ahead to the 2020 election for president, which of the following describes how you are thinking about your vote?

I will support Donald Trump no matter who the Democratic candidate is.

I will support the Democratic candidate no matter who it is.

My vote will depend on who the Democratic candidate is.

18

Top Three Critical Issues Among Uncommitted Americans

59

5146

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Health care Terrorism Jobs and employmentSource: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.

Among Uncommitted Americans Who Say Candidate Issue Positions Most Important, Percent who rate the following issues as critical

19

Top Candidate Preferences over Trump,

Among Uncommitted Americans

18

6

7

7

8

9

9

9

12

12

13

24

31

32

0 10 20 30 40

No Democratic Candidate Selected

Tim Ryan

Michael Bennet

Beto O’Rourke

Pete Buttigieg

Julián Castro

Tulsi Gabbard

Amy Klobuchar

Kamala Harris

Andrew Yang

Cory Booker

Elizabeth Warren

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders


Select all that apply

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2020:

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S SUPPORT

21

Trump Favorability, 2015-2019

58 57

76

8783 84 86

81 80 82

3025 28

4238 41 40

31

4032

138 6

13 11 10 8 714

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9/2015 3/2016 9/2016 3/2017 9/2017 3/2018 9/2018 3/2019 9/2019

Source: PRRI Trend, 2015-2019

Percent who say they have favorable or very favorable view

Republicans Independents Democrats

22

Partisan Evaluations of President Trump’s Job Performance

3

13

37

7

29

51

11

16

5

76

42

6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Democrat

Independent

Republican


Percent who...

Approve, and almost nothing Trump could do to lose approval

Approve, but Trump could lose approval

Disapprove, but Trump could win approval

Disapprove, and almost nothing Trump could do to gain approval

23

Preference for Trump over Other Republican Candidate,

Among Republican Subgroups

69

71

73

74

73

80

79

61

65

68

72

72

72

80

82

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Non-Fox News viewer

White college graduate

Non-White Evangelical Protestant

Men

Women

Republican/Lean (All)

White non-college graduate

White Evangelical Protestant

Fox News Viewer


Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents

Mid-September Mid-October

24

Judgments about Trump’s Speech and Behavior

20

55

25

17

23

46

8

30

62

57

65

73

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

President Trump's conduct makes them more likelyto support him.

President Trump's conduct makes no difference intheir support for him.

President Trump's conduct makes them less likelyto support him.

President Trump has encouraged whitesupremacist groups.

President Trump has damaged the dignity of thepresidency.

They wish President Trump's speech and behaviorwere more consistent with other presidents.


Percent who say

All Americans Republican

25

Is Trump Encouraging White Supremacists?

A Look at White Americans by Religion

21

45

48

74

49

66

68

78

6

4

5

4

5

12

9

7

70

51

46

22

44

14

21

24

0 20 40 60 80 100

White evangelical Protestant

White mainline Protestant

White Catholic

White unaffiliated

All White Americans

Hispanic Protestants

Hispanic Catholics

Black Protestants


Do you think that President Trump's decisions and actions have...

Encouraged white supremacist groups Discouraged white supremacist groups

Not had an impact either way

INCREASING SUPPORT FOR IMPEACHMENT

27

Support for Impeaching and Removing President Trump

from Office, 2017-2019

30

40 4047 47

51

4 7 611

6 7

58

72 6977 78

88

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2/2017 6/2017 10/2017 2/2018 6/2018 10/2018 2/2019 6/2019 10/2019

Sources: PRRI 2017-2019 American Values Survey; PRRI February 2017 Survey; PRRI August 2017 Survey.

Percent who favor

All Americans Republicans Democrats

28

Support for Impeaching and Removing President Trump from Office

16

37

40

47

53

68

43

4

12

31

36

37

46

46

59

37

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Fox Viewers

White evangelical Protestant

Non-college graduates

Men

Women

Non-Fox Viewers

College graduates

Religiously unaffiliated

All Whites

Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey; PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.

Among Key White Groups, Percent who favor

Mid-September Mid-October

Robert P. Jones, Ph.D. | @robertpjones

#AVS2019

Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization ahead of 2020 Presidential Election

Findings from the 2019 American Values Survey

@RobertPJonesRobert P. Jones, Ph.D.

findings from the 2019 american values survey...replacing our cultural and ethnic background. it is...

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