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FORECASTING AS A PART OF

HRP

Presented By:-

Shubhangi

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Right number of people with right skills at right place at right time to

implement organizational strategies in order to achieve organizational

objectives

In light of the organizations objectives, corporate and business level

strategies, HRP is the process of analyzing an organizations human

resource needs and developing plans, policies, and systems to satisfythose needs

Human Resource Planning

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HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

Setting human resource

objectives and deciding how

to meet them

Ensuring HR resource supply

meets human resource

demands

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Process of projecting the organizations future HR needs

(demand) and how it will meet those needs (supply) under a

given set of assumptions about the organizations policiesand the environmental conditions in which it operates.

Without forecasting cannot assess the disparity between

supply and demand nor how effective an HR program is in

reducing the disparity.

Human Resource Forecasting

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Forecasting as a Part of Human Resource Planning

DEMAND

FORECASTING

SUPPLY

FORECASTING

Determine

organizationa

l objectives

Demand

forecast for

each objective

Aggregate

demandforecast

Go to feasibility analysis steps

Choose human

resource

programs

External

programs

Recruiting

External

selection

Executive

exchange

Internal programs

Promotion

Transfer

Career planningTraining

Turnover control

Internal supply forecast

External supply

forecastAggregate supply

forecast

No

Yes

Does

aggregate

supplymeet

aggregate

demand ?

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Internal Supply Forecasting Information

Organizational features (e.g., staffing capabilities)

Productivity - rates of productivity, productivity changes

Rates of promotion, demotion, transfer and turnover

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External Supply ForecastingInformation

External labor market factors (retirements,

mobility, education, unemployment)

Controllable company factors on external

factors (entry-level openings, recruiting,

compensation)

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Demand Forecasting Information

Organizational and unit strategic plans

Size of organization

Staff and Managerial Support

Organizational design

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Considerations in Establishing a Forecasting

System

How sophisticated

Appropriate time frame

Subjective versus objective forecasting methods

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System Sophistication

Organizational size

large organizations require more complex forecasting systems and likely to have the

required skilled staff

Organizational complexity

complex career paths and diverse skill requirements lead to more complex forecasting

systems

Organizational objectives

the greater the gap between current HR situation and desired HR situation the more

sophisticated the system

Organizational plans and strategies

the complex the plans are the more complex the forecasting system

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Subjective VS. Objective

ForecastingObjective is inappropriate when:

Lack expertise to use objective methods

Lack the historical data or HR data base is inadequate

Forecasting horizon is too long for the available objective

method

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Demand Forecasting Methods

Delphi Method

Staffing Table Approach

Regression Analysis

Time Series Analysis

Linear Programming

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Supply Forecasting Methods

Skills Inventory

Replacement Charts

Succession Planning

Flow Modeling/Markov Analysis

Computer Simulations

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