germany 2030 future perspectives for value creation · the nuclear catastrophe of fukushima and...

Germany 2030Future perspectives for value creation

Content

06 Foreword

07 Preliminaryremarks

08 1. Managementsummary

12 2. Procedure

18 3. Trendsanddrivingforcesofvaluecreation

26 4. Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation

76 5. Paradigmshiftinvaluecreation

80 6. FutureopportunitiesforvaluecreationinGermany81 6.1 Recommendationsforinnovationpolicygearedtovaluecreation92 6.2 Recommendationsforinnovationculturegearedtovaluecreation

100 Listofallfigures

102 Glossaries

110 Editorialinformation

06Foreword

InthisstudytheBDIislookingtothefuture:theBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”,composedofexpertsfrombusinessenterprisesandBDImemberassociations,submitsitsassessmentsforthefutureofvaluecreationinGermany2030.ThestudywascommissionedbytheBDI/BDACommitteeforResearch,InnovationandTechnologyPolicyandwassupportedbyZ_punkt,aninstituteconcernedwithstrategicquestionsofthefuture.Theresultsgobeyondtheextrapolationoftrendsorthecondensingofexistingstudiesonfutureresearch.TheanalysisfocusesonthedisruptionsandpossibledevelopmentswhichcouldhaveamajorimpactonthemannerandtheextentofwhatweinGermanyproduceandconsume.Inconcreteterms:whatradicaltechnological,econom-icandsocialchangescanbeexpectedby2030andwhatpossibleeffectscantheyhaveonvaluecreationandjobsinGermany?Howcantheopportunitiesbegraspedandtherisksminimised?Howshouldtheoverallpoliticalframeworkbedevised,especiallywithregardtothepromotionofresearch?

Thesequestionsrequireanongoingdiscussioninthebusinesscommunity,academia,societyandamongpolicy-makerstowhichthisstudyseekstomakeacontribution.Whateverthediversityofthejudgementsandconclusionsexpressed,theyallsharethecommongoalofstrengtheningGermanyasanindustrialnationforthefuture.

Prof. Dr. Dr. Andreas BarnerChairmanBDI/BDACommitteeforResearch,InnovationandTechnologyPolicy

Dr. Reinhold AchatzChairmanBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”

Dieter SchweerMemberoftheExecutiveBoardFederationofGermanIndustries(BDI)

06 |07Preliminary remarks

ThestudywascommissionedbytheBDI/BDACommitteeforRe-search,InnovationandTechnologyPolicy.Itwascarriedoutbythemembersoftheworkinggroupon“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”,whichwassetupbythecommitteeandwassup-portedbyZ_punkt,TheForesightCompany,aconsultancyforstrategicquestionsofthefuture.

ThecontentsarenottobeidentifiedwithexistingBDIpositions,nordothestatements,assessmentsandrecommendationsofindividualauthorsorgroupsofauthorsreflecttheopinionsofallauthorsorofthebusinessenterprisestheyrepresent.

Constitutingadiscussionpaper,thecontentsreflecttheevaluationsandconclusionswhichcallforadebateonthefutureofvaluecreationinGermany.Thestudyseekstomakeacontributiontothediscussionoftheopportunitiesandrisksposedbytechnologicalchangeinbusiness,politicsandsociety.Thepaperisaimedatallinterestedpartiesinthegeneralpublicandwasthusdeliberatelywritteningenerallyunderstandablelanguageandwithanextensiveglossary.

081.Management Summary

ThenuclearcatastropheofFukushimaandGermany’sswitchinenergypolicyareaclarioncall:Germany,Europeandtheworldareundergoingaphaseofrapidchange.Thedynamismwhichhasbuiltupinthefinanceandcurrencyareas,inecologicalanddemographicquestions,addedtothehighvolatilityinmanyeconomicandsocialfields,allthesefactorspointtoafutureinwhichchangewillnotbetheexceptionbuttherule,afuturefullofturmoilandupheavals.Thatisthebasicassumptionofthisstudy.

Whattechnical,economicandsocialupheavalscanbeexpectedby2030?AndwhatpossibleimpactwilltheyhaveonvaluecreationinGermany?Inpresentingthisqualitativelyorientedforward-lookingstudy,the“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”workinggroupoftheBDI,supportedbyZ_punktTheForesightCompany,isconsciouslybreakingnewground1.TheprimaryobjectiveistoassesstheopportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreationoverthenexttwodecadesandtoinitiateabroadlybaseddiscussiononhowvaluecreationandconsequentlyjobscanbepreservedinGermanyonasustainablebasis.

Intheprocessitbecomesclearthatnewformsofconstructiveandcooperativeinteractionbetweenpolitics,societyandindustryarenecessary.Thiscooperationshouldalsofindexpressioninviablefuturebusinessmodelsforenterprises.Themostimportantfindingsofthestudy:

Classicalboundariesbetweensectorsaredisappearing.Newcompre-hensivespheresofactivityandformsofcooperationareemerging.Withregardtohealth,forexample,thefocusisontheindividualwithinlargegroupsofpatients,hisgeneticmake-up,hisbehaviour,andhisownindividualenvironment.Personalisedmedicinetakesaccountofthesefactors.Inresearch,interdisciplinarythinkingisfinallywinningthrough.Branchesnolongerregardeachotherasalienbutcooperateprovidedthattheycanparticipateinacommonbusinessmodel.Tailor-madesupplypackagesofproductsandservicesarewinningground.Theclassicsectorsareincreasingly

1 Alongwiththeshortversion,aspresentedinthisbrochure,adownloadoftheGermanlongversionisavailable:www.bdi.eu/publikationen_zukunftsstudie.htm

1.ManagementSummary

08 |09

losingimportance.Intheareasofhealth,nutritionandcosmetics,forexample,newtarget-orientedalliancesareemerging.

Valuecreationin2030demandsasystemicandintegratedunder-standingofinnovation.Mobility,forexample:thecentre-stageisnolongertakenbytheautomobileasasymbolofindividualtransportbutbytheprovisionofintelligentmobilitywhichtranscendsindividualmodesoftransport.Itisimperativetodecideonqualityobjectives:whatkindofmobilitydoweactuallywant,atwhatpriceandonwhatconditions?Newplayersareenteringthemarket:producersofpost-fossilpropulsionsystemsorbatteries,energyandITsuppliers.Municipalitiesandregionsaretakingonmoreresponsibilityandareredefiningpublictransportasanintegralpartofinternationalmobility.Networkedinformationservicesarebringingaboutseamlessmobilityencompassingallmodesoftransport.

Omnipresentinformationdisseminationwilltendtowinthroughinallsectorsandareasoflife.An“InternetofThings”willcomeintobeingwherenotonlyhumanbeingsbutalsoobjectswillexchangeinforma-tionautonomously.Theoutlookisforanautonomousandglobalcontrolofdecentralisedproductionprocessesinrealtime.Thephysicalandthedigitalworldwillbelinked.Knowledge-basedsystemshelptocontrolcomplexity.Theblendingofthesystemsharboursimmensepotential–butalsorisks.Infuture,ITsecuritywillplayamajorrole.

Thevaluecreationofthenexttwodecadeswillultimatelybeshapedbysustainablesolutions.Germanyisanindustrialnationwithfewrawmaterials.Securityofsupplyisandwillremainanissuewithhighpriority.Whetheritbetheswitchinenergypolicy,theenhancingofresourcesefficiencyorrecyclingloopsystems,asustainableinnova-tionstrategywilltakeaccountofmany-sidedandunconventionalapproaches.Andtherearedefinitelyexportopportunitiesintheareaofsustainableinfrastructure.Thatappliestopowerstationtechnolo-gies,storagesystemsinthecontextofthesmartgridandtoenergyefficiency–growthmarketsofthe21stcentury.

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Futurebusinesslogicrequiresaneworientationofstakeholderandcustomerrelations.Eventoday,customercommunitiesintheinternetalreadyexerciseconsiderableinfluence.Theirstrengthliesintheopennessoftheircommunication.Positionsinthemarketplace–ofproducers,suppliers,customersandNGOs–arealreadyshifting.Businessenterprisescanfallvictimtothisdynamism,buttheycanalsouseittotheirownadvantage.Successwillcometothosecapableofforgingnewalliances.Butanoteofcautionmustbeadded:asaresultofgrowingcomplexity,itisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttocontrolprocesses.Thatisanotherreasonwhyemotionalbondingforcustomerandbrandissoimportant.Future-orientedproductsandservices,foranageingsocietyforexample,requirecommunicationwhichextendsnotonlybeyondsectoralboundariesbutalsoincludesthecustomerasaninnovator.

Changeisfrequentlytriggeredbynewdiscoveriesinscienceandtechnology.Yetimplementationinthemarkettakesplaceonlyonconditionthattheproperinfrastructure,environmentandbusinessmodelsareallinplace.Thatiswhytheopportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation2030maketheirpresencefeltnotleastinthelabourmarket.Itisthehumanbeingwhoisatthecentreofthebusinessworld.Forhimtheremustbeabridgefromtheoldtothenewworldofemployment.

|111.ManagementSummary

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Figure 1: Value creation and employment effects

Potential hazards

Opportunities

Exploiting opportunities for employment effects

Value creation

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Changeisomnipresent.Itispickingupspeedanditscomplexityisincreasing,somuchisapparentinallbranchesofindustry.Uncer-taintyisafeatureofthebusinessenvironment,bothincompetitionandinthemarkets.AndGermany’seconomyisinterlockedwiththeglobaleconomytoaspecialdegree.Socialandeconomicupheavalsinthecomingtwodecadesarealreadymakingthemselvesfelt.Theywillleadtoradicalchangesintheprocessesofvaluecreation.Aplanningprojectionwouldthereforeseemtobeindispensable.Andyet,howdohighvolatility,anuncertainoverallframeworkandthedevelopmentofafuture-orientedinnovationpolicyallfittogether?AndwhatdoesthatmeanforthevaluecreationoftheGermaneconomy?

ThatisthebackgroundagainstwhichtheBDIworkinggroup“Innova-tionStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”awardedthecommissionforthepresentstudy2toZ_punktTheForesightCompany.TheresultsarebasedonamethodologicalapproachspeciallydevelopedbyZ_punktandonintensiveandconstructivediscussionswiththemembersoftheworkinggroup.

2 Forthelongversionseefootnoteonp.8

2.Procedure

Figure 2: Project design

TrendsCurrenttrendsofvaluecreation

Areas of activityCross-sectoralcategoriesofneed

DisruptionsCandidatesforbreaksintrends

|132.Procedure

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Thechangesalreadymakingthemselvesfeltarefrequentlyofadisruptivenature–bydefinitiontheycannotbepredicted.Thatmakesitallthemorevitalinfuturetoinvestigatefundamentalupheavalsandtoassesstheconsequencesforvaluecreationatanearlystage.

Exploringpossibleopportunitiesandriskspromisesasubstantialincreaseinawarenessandopensupoptionsforaction.Changescanberapid,violentandradical.Thosewhomakeallowancesfordisrup-tionsarebetterpreparedfortheincreasinglyvolatileconditionsunderwhichtheGermaneconomycanandmustoperateupto2030.

Thedemandsmadeontheinvestigationareconsiderable,thosemadeontherangeofinstrumentsnolessso.Ajourneythroughtheproject(seefig.2)seekstomakethisclear.Wheredowestandtoday?Thestartingpointisdescribedwiththehelpofcurrenttrendsinvaluecreation(chapter3).Theseinclude,forexample,thereductionofin-houseproductiondepth,ageneralintensificationofknowledgeandchangedcustomerrequirements.Subsequently,fiveintersectoralspheresofactivityareconsideredmoreclosely:mobility,climateandenergy,healthandnutrition,communicationsandsecurity.The

Analysis of the impact on value creation

New alignment of practice of promotionGuidelinesforpolitics

New focuses of investment Guidelinesforindustry

New paradigms Superordinatepatternsinvaluecreation

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selectioncorrespondstothe“High-TechStrategy2020”oftheGermangovernment3.Therearealsosuper-ordinateissuesaffectingallareas,suchasalackoftechnologyacceptance.

Thisisfollowedbythedecisivestep.Possibleobstaclestovaluecreation,knownasdisruptions,areidentified.Theyformthespecialmethodologicalapproachofthestudy(chapter4).Thesedisruptionsarebreaksintrendsandcannotsimplybeextrapolatedfromexistingtrends.Theiremergencecreatestosomeextentcompletelynewframeworkconditionswhichthepresentstudydescribesinentryscenarios.Shouldthedisruptionsactuallytakeplace,amajorimpactonthestructureofvaluecreationinGermanymustbereckonedwith.Externalshockscanalsohaveanimpactaswellasthearrivalattippingpoints:continuousdevelopmentsintheinterplayofvariousfactorsleadtoapointwherethesituationtopplesover.Fromthenonthereisseriousinstability.Inthebusinesscommunityweoftenexperiencesuchbreaksintrendsintheformofnon-lineardevelop-ments.OneneedonlythinkoftheburstingofthedotcombubbleinMarch2000.

Thedisruptionsarearrangedaccordingtothefiveareasofactivityaddressedaswellasthetopicsaffectionallsectors.Of325possibledisruptionsthatwereoriginallyidentified,28finallyremainedwhichwerethensubjectedtoathoroughanalysis(chapter4;here18ofthe28disruptionsinvestigatedaresetout).Thedecisiveselectioncriteriaforthemembersoftheworkinggroupon“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”weretheforceandbreathoftheimpactexpected.

Itisthegoaloftheselectionprocesstoidentifycandidatesformajorchangesinthestructuresofvaluecreation.Asaruletheyareissueswhicharealreadybeingdiscussed,butwhoserelevancehasnotyetbeenfeltinthemarkets.

3 FederalMinistryofEducationandResearch(Ed.):Ideas.Innovation.Prosperity.High-Tech-Strategy2020forGermany.Bonn,Berlin2010http://www.hightech-strategie.de/en/index.php

|152.Procedure

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IdentIFIcatIonCriteria:– forceofimpact–degreeofnovelty

Procedure:–surveysand

workshops–branchanalyses–analysisofrecipro-

caleffects

Z_punkt

SelectIon 1Criteria:– forceofimpact–breadthofimpact– foresightknowledge–manageability

Z_punkt

SelectIon 2– forceofimpact–breadthofimpact– foresightknowledge–manageability

BDIandZ_punkt

deScrIPtIonComponentsofdescription:–cause/trigger–character/descrip-

tion–change–displacement

degree–noveleffects–needforaction

BDIandZ_punkt

28 Disruptions

Figure 3Disruption analysis

In general: approx. 125 disruptions

Areas of activity: approx. 200 disruptions

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Subsequentlytheinitialfactorsaredescribedfortheentryscenarioofthedisruptions.Theemphasisisnotonpredictingdisruptionsbutontheearlyassessmentofpossibleconsequencesonvaluecreation.Heretheopportunitiesandrisksbecomeclear.Theoutlinesofnewpatternsofvaluecreationemergeandthescopeforactionforpolitics,industryandsocietybecomesvisible.ParticipantsintheBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”haveestimat-edtheopportunities,risksandeffectsonthegrossvaluecreationintheeconomyandonemployment.Naturallyfutureprognosesaresubjecttoahighdegreeofuncertainty–allthemoresoagainstthebackgroundofthedynamicandcomplexchangesshapingfuturevaluecreation.

Theeffectsofadisruptionofvaluecreationmustnotbeconsideredinisolation.Whatisdecisiveisthedynamismwhicharisesfromtheinterplayofvarioustrends.Thisreleasesunimaginedforces,resultinginachangeofparadigm(chapter5):The“rulesofthegame”change.Valuechainsaresubjectedtoaredesign,newvalueclusterscomeintobeing.Boththechangeinthe“rulesofthegame”andthenewcompositionofthevaluechainsrequirefar-sightednessinadjustment–thecentralmessageofthestudy.Thisaffects,forexample,theinter-connectionswithintraditionalbranchesandalsothoseinnewbranches.Communicationandinteractionarethelocomotivesdrivingthrustsofinnovationandpreviouslyunknownbusinessmodels.

Paradigmshiftshaveamajorinfluenceontheinternationalcompeti-tivenessoftheGermaneconomy.Itslocationfactorsaretherebycalledintoquestionandmustbeadapted.SafeguardingvaluecreationinGermanyinthelongtermrequiresintelligentandefficientcooperationbetweentheparticipantsinsociety,politicsandtheeconomy.Ifneedbe,anewmodeofcooperationwillhavetobefound.Thisistheaimoftherecommendationsforavaluecreationorientedinnovationpolicyandavaluecreationorientedcultureofinnovation(chapter6).Theprimegoalistomaintainthecompetitive-nessoftheGermaneconomy.

|172.Procedure

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International competitiveness

Advance performance

LocationGermany

Total performance

Disruptions

Figure 4:Disruptions and their impact on value creation in Germany

Value creation in Germany

183. trends and driving forces of value creation

Atrendisadevelopmentlastingseveralyearsandempiricallydocumented.Trendsusuallyrunasteadycourse,cyclicalchangesandfluctuationsdonotaffectthem,nordochangesofcourseorsharprises.Asaruletrendsfollowacleardirection,theircourseisrobust.

Trendsdescribeacontinuationofeventsaccordingtotheprinciple“businessasusual”.Thatiswhytheycanbeseenasformingthenecessarybackdropneededfordeviations,disturbancesanddisrup-tionstobecomevisible.Thepresentcondensedversionofthestudytakesasexamplessixoforiginally15centraltrendsintheareaofvaluecreation,describingthemfromaninter-sectoralandglobalperspective.

Theselectionofthe15trendsisbasedonasurveyamongcompaniesandassociationsintheBDIworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”andondetailedresearchbyZ_punkttheForesightCompany.

Figure 5: Current trends

|193.Trendsanddrivingforcesofvaluecreation

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trendS and drIverS oF value creatIon

1 Growing importance of inter-sectoral, international value creation partnerships

2 Continuingglobalisation

3 Reduction of production depth – reduction of value creation depth

4 Craving share of services in value creation

5 Knowledgeintensificationofvaluecreation

6 Change in customer requirements

7 Individualisation and personalisation of supply

8 Automationofprocessstages

9 Digital integration of processes

10 Newintelligentlogisticsconcepts

11 Increaseduseofmaterialswithnewproperties

12 Changeinrawmaterialssituation

13 Increasingimportanceofwastemanagementandrecyclingtechnologies

14 Increasingimportanceofsustainability

15 Diversitymanagement

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Increasing importance of inter-sectoral, international value creation partnerships.Futuretechnologiesarebiotopesfornewcooperationbetweenenterprisesfromdifferentbranchesofindustry.Inthefieldofelectro-mobilitythisinvolvesnotmerelytheclassicautomobilemanufacturersbutalsoenergyutilitiesandparticipantsfromtheITsector.Strategicalliancessuchastheseareincreasinglydecidingoversuccessorfailure,acrossnationalborders.Onthehorizontallevel,newareasofknowledgeandadditionalgroupsofcustomersarebecomingacces-siblefortheindividualenterprises.Alongthevaluechain,thisprovidesenterpriseswiththeopportunitytointegratefurtherservicesbutalsoraisesthedangeroflosingcorecompetencesandthusvaluecreation.Fromproducttoservicecanalsomeanserviceinsteadofproduct.Itisnotnecessarytoownanautomobileinordertodriveacar–mobilityasaservicethusillustratesanewbusinessopportunity.

Partialcooperationwithcompetitors(coopetition)onlymakessensewhennodirectcompetitionistobefearedandwhenitofferssubstan-tialcost-cuttingpotential.Internationalcompetitorswhichsupplyothermarketsarepracticallyaninvitationtobecoopetitionpartners.Jointdevelopmentofcomponentsorproductsisalreadycommonintheautomobileindustry.

Openinnovationgoesonestepfurtherbyactivelyincludingcustom-ers,strategicpartnersand–inthepre-competitivestage–evencompetitorsinproductdevelopment.Thedrivingforcesofthesedevelopmentsareglobalisation,thepotentialofjointbusinessoppor-tunitiesandshorterproductlifecycles.Theyalsopromptenterprisestocommunicatetheirinnovationprocessesopenlyandtooptimisethem.


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Reduction of depth of value creationThesustainedsuccessofenterprisesrestsonbeingstrategicallypositioned.Apartfromfinancialandpersonnelresources,competitive-nesscruciallydependsonhowenterprisesspecialiseinaparticularareaofthevaluecreationchainandthusdevelopacorecompetence.Onedirectconsequenceisareductionindepthofvaluecreation.Intheautomobileindustry(OEMs)itisaround20percent.

Thedrivingforcesbehindthisdevelopmentareagrowingdynamismofinnovationandtherisingpressureofcosts.Inmanycasesout-sourcinghasbeenandstillremainsthesolution.Apreconditionisthatservicesandproductionprocessescanbestandardised.

Intheglobaleconomysomeregionshaveemergedwithspecialcompetencesandtheirownprofile.Theyhavebecomeideallocationsinwhichtooutsourcecertainpartsofvaluecreation.Forexample,IndiaactsasaglobalservicescentreforIT-basedservices.Chinahasgainedareputationastheworkbenchoftheworld.However,infutureitmaybethatprocessesonceoutsourcedareshiftedbackagaintoagrowingextent.Thereasonsarerisingwagesandeconomicpolicyreformsintherelevantregions.

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Rising proportion of services in value creationInmanufacturingindustryaparadigmshiftistakingplace:enterprisesaretransformingthemselvesfrommereproducersofproductsintosuppliersofintegratedsolutions.Thedividinglinebetweengoodsandservicesisdissolving.Thistrendisbecomingincreasinglyclearinmechanicalengineering.Companiesarenotmerelysupplyingproductsbutalsoancillaryservicessuchasmaintenance.Ortheymayactfromtheoutsetasoperatorswiththeservicethenreplacingthepurchaseoftheproduct.Thesameappliesequallytomedicaltechnology,opticsandtheelectricalindustry.

Change in customer requirementsThepackagingofproductandservicenotonlykeepsthecompetitionatadistance,aboveallithelpsthecustomer.Withoutdoubt,intimesofsaturatedmarkets,customerretentiontakesonmoreimportance.Successonlycomeswhentheenterprisesucceedsinestablishingalastingemotionalbondwiththeconsumer.

Service-orientationrequiresspecialknow-how.Conventionalmarketresearchisfrequentlynotsufficient.Openinguptotheserviceideathereforedemandsoftheclassicindustrialenterprisethatitchangesitsowncorporateculture.Knowledgeofcustomerrequirementsmustalsobemeaningfullyintegratedintotheprocessesandbecompre-hensivelyexploited.

Productsforagrowingcustomersegment50+areincreasinglyfollowingadesignthatdoesnotmaketheiruserslook“old”butrathergivesthemthefeelingof“eternalyouth”anddiscreetlymaskstheirpersonalweaknesses.Examplesarethecurrentboomonlinercruises,fitnessstudiosfortheelderlyorcarsthataresimplertogetintoandofferthedriverassistance.The“newseniorcitizens”aremoremobileandhealthierthanpreviousgenerationsoftheelderlyandhavemoremoneytospend.Thisdevelopmentisadirectresultofdemographicchangeandthespreadofprosperityinsociety.Smart,long-lastingandtimelessdesignhasafuture.


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Convenienceismuchmorethanfastfood.Abroadlybasedtrendispointingtowardsanintelligentlighteningoftheloadofdailylife.Pressureoftime,mobilityandanenormousfloodofinformationwhichhastobegraspedarethedrivingforcesofthisdevelopment.

Manycustomersproceedontheprinciple:let’simprovetheworldwhileshopping.Andthatappliesnotonlytofood.Inthecaseofconsumergoods,travellinganddwellings,ecologicalandsocialdimensionsarebecomingthecentreofattention.However,customersarenotpreparedtogowithouttheiraccustomedamenitiesorhighquality.Thereisagrowingmarketforproductswithhigherecologicalandsocialstandards.YetintimesofgrowingtransparencythroughNGOsandthesocialweb,an“ecologicalhalo”(greenwashing)isbecomingagenuineriskforenterprises.

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Individualising and personalising supplyTheneedforindividualisinginallareasoflifeisunbroken–andwillremainso.Thepotentialofmassproductionformaturemarketsisincreasinglyexhausted.Inordertomeettherefinedneedsoftheircustomers,enterprisesarefacedwiththelastingtaskofgreaterdifferentiationoftheproductandservicesportfolios.Onepossiblesolutionismasscustomisation,producingforindividualcustomers.Buyingtherightbicycle,ifitisnottobeoneoffthepeg,isnosimplematteranylonger.

Anotherrouteisofferedbymodularproduction,whichhaslongbecomecommonintheITsector.Forenterprisesnewchannelsofcommunicationhavedecisiveadvantages,atthedigitalleveltheseareusertoolkitsandproductconfigurations.Customerrequirementsarebecomingmoredemandingandaremoretransparentthaneverbefore,yetthecostofproductdevelopmentmuststillbecutevenfurther.

Internetande-commerceplatformscreateuser-friendlydistributionmodels.Wheresalesanddistributionareconcerned,limitationsimposedbyshelfareaandshowroomsarethingsofthepast.Thedigitalpathmeansabroadspectrumofnicheproductsreachesacriticalmass.Inthiswayavarietyofmicro-marketshascomeintobeingalongsidethemassmarket.

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Digital process integrationStandardisationanddigitalisationgohandinhand.Thedigitalpenetrationofenterprisesiscontinuingapace,whetherinmarketing,sales,service,procurement,productionorlogistics.Afterthee-com-mercewave,increasedattentionisnowbeingturnedtooptimisinginternalprocessesandthosebetweenenterprises.Theadvantagesareobvious:efficiency,flexibilityandageneralacceleration.Thetemplateistherealtimeenterpriseinwhichallrelevantinformationisavailableinadigitalmodel.Decisionsandoptionsforactionaremodelledwithcomputerassistance–andcanbeseenintheplanningoffactoryandconstructionprogress.

Withcloudcomputingthestartingbellhasnowsoundedforanotherroundintheprogressofinformationtechnologyinindustry.Theprocessfollowsthelogicofoutsourcing.Withscaleeffectsandflexibleservicemodels–thesoftwarenolongerontheharddiscbutasaservice–majoreconomiesarepossibleinspiteofincreasingtheextentofservice.Atthesametime,thereisincreaseddependence.Dataprotectionandsecurityoftheoutsourceddatahavetobeguaranteed.Expertshaveaclearvisionofthevirtualenterpriseofthefuture.Itconsistsofanetworkoffirmsandfree-lancepersonnel,itworksproject-related,anditscustomersareintegratedasco-produc-ers.However,suchextremelyflexiblestructureswithtemporarycorporategoalsandflathierarchieshaveproblemsoftheirown.Theystartwiththetrainingofpersonnel,continuewithlabourlaw,andendinan(intended)blurringbetweenfree-lanceandsalariedstaff,betweenworkandleisuretime.

264. disruptions – opportunities and risks for value creation

Whereastrendsleadtomoreorlessclearlyforeseeablechangesinvaluecreation,theimpactofthelistofdisruptionsonvaluecreationintheyear2030iscomplexandhardlycalculable.Yetdespitealluncertainties,opportunitiesandriskshavetobesurveyedandassessed.Newalliances,changedcompetitivestructures,andinnovativebusinessmodelsareemerging.Bottlenecksaffectingresourcesarenotonlyconceivablebutprobable;inthedigitalage,knowledgeandtechnologyaredecidedlyfluid.Itisaconstantchallengetokeepthemavailableanddevelopthem.Andwhatmustnotbeforgottenisthesocialacceptancewhichisnecessaryifnewsolutionsandservicesaretoendureatall.

Ifdisruptionsbecomevirulent,theyposeasignificanthazardforvaluecreationandthusforemployment.However,forenterpriseswhichrecognisethechangeingoodtime,opportunitiesopenup.Inordertograspthem,notonlytheenterprisesandtheirdecision-makersbutalsolargepartsofthepopulationmustbereadyfornewtasks.Obstaclesalongthispatharefrequentlyalackofeducationandculturalbarriers.Whetherthesecanbeovercomedependsonthereadinessofsocietyanditsinstitutions,namelykindergarten,schools,universitiesandstateinstitutions.Butitisalsouptoeachindividual.Behindvaluecreationstandhumanbeingswiththeirexperiencesandtheirbiographies,withchildrenandfamilies.Forthemtheremustbeabridgefromtheoldworldofemploymenttothenew.Thenewworldmustofferjobsforasmanypeopleaspossible,whilegrantingthemaccesstothenecessaryqualificationsandremainingopenforchanges.

Subsequentlythedisruptions(18outof28investigated)arefirstoutlinedinanentryscenarioandonthisbasistherefollowsananalysisoftheimpactonvaluecreation.

Figure 6: List of disruptions

|274.Disruptions–opportunitiesandrisksforvaluecreation

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area oF actIvIty – MobIlIty1 Mobility changes from product to service business2 New competitors change the mobility market3 Automationoftrafficflows4 Massivereductionintrafficvolume5 Breakthroughofnewlogisticssystems6 Integration of mobility and energy networks7 Electro-mobility leads to new value creation structures

area oF actIvIty – clIMate and energy1 Far-reaching decentralisation of energy supply2 Worldwidefasterandmoreconsistentswitchtorenewableenergies3 Majordependenceonenergyimports4 Struggle for new sources of raw materials and energy5 TechnologiesforexploitingCO2findwideapplication

area oF actIvIty – health and nutrItIon1 Personalised medicine experiences a breakthrough2 Massivecurtailingofpublichealthcare3 Systemssupplierschangecompetitioninhealthsector4 New convergence markets arise in nutrition sector5 Sustainablenutritionindustrywinsthrough6 Shortage of resources in agricultural sector.

area oF actIvIty – coMMunIcatIon1 Individualisedmediausebecomesstandard2 “Internet of Things” opens up completely new business potential3 Community-based customer behaviour detonates traditional business models4 Knowledge-based systems at the centre of future value creation

area oF actIvIty – SecurIty1 Increased system complexity – higher potential hazard – global extent of damage

Inter-Sectoral FraMework condItIonS1 Lack of acceptance for technology in Europe2 Declining quality and investment holdup through lack of skilled labour3 Reciprocal effects in global finance and currency system and the arrival of new players4 Development of international trade relations with question mark5 Complete internalisation of external costs

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Area of activity – mobilityWefacegreatupheavalsinglobalmobility.Thedrivingforcesaremanifold:growingregulationintheclimateandenvironmentarea,highpricevolatilityintherawmaterialsectorandintensificationofcompetitionstemmingfromproducersinemergingcountries.Forexample,inGermanytheautomobileindustryhasfordecadesoccupiedakeypositioninthenation’sindustry.Nowcompetitorsfromoutsidethesectorareencroachingontothisterritory.Newalliancesandstrategicpartnershipswithoperatorspreviouslyalientothesectorwillbedecisiveforsafeguardingthemarketposition.

NewpropulsionsystemsandcontinuingITintegrationincars,buses,trainsandaircraft,togetherwiththeattendantinfrastructureleadtovaluecreationstructuresundergoinglastingchange.Thisincludes,forexample,electro-mobilityandtheintermodallinkingofvarioustransportcarriers.

Connectivityinthemobilitysectorwillcontinuetoadvance.Seamlessmobilityisthedemandtoguaranteeasafe,efficientandsustainabletransportofpeopleandgoods.ThisgivesrisetoreciprocaleffectswiththeenergysectorandtheITbranch.Disruptionsinthebusinesssectoraretheresult.Themainemphasisliesonthebenefitsfortheeconomyasawhole,butalsoforeachindividual,withacutintrafficcongestion,increasedsafetyandbetterprotectionoftheenvironment.


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PoSItIon dISruPtIonS eMPloyMent value creatIon

1 Mobilitychangesfromproduct -/(+) -/(+) toservicesbusiness

2 Newcompetitorschangethe -/(+) -/(+) mobilitymarket

3 Automationoftrafficflows + +

4 Massivedropinvolumeoftraffic - -

5 Breakthroughofnewlogisticssystems + +

6 Integrationofmobilityand + + energynetworks

7 Electro-mobilityleadstonewvalue - - creationstructures

Figure 7:Disruptions in the mobility area of activity

Explanationsontheeffectsofthedisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101

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Entry scenarioIn2030mobilitywillbemarkedbyachangeofvaluesinsociety.Thekeywordsare:climateprotectionandsustainability,urbanqualityoflife,timeefficiencyandtherediscoveryoftheregion–notleastasaresultofhighertransportcosts.Trafficbottlenecksandcongestionwillincreasethroughlackofmaintenanceandinadequateexpansionofinfrastructure.Highenergypricesforfossilenergysourceswillleadtomoretransportoffers.

Ifthedevelopmentoftoday’ssmartphonesisprojectedintothefuture,anomnipresentandhighlynetworkedcomputerisationofthewholeofeverydaylifeisconceivable.Successfulconceptsinthemarketmakepossibleaseamless,uncomplicatedandeconomicaldoor-to-doormobility,byplane,train,carorbicycle.Incitiescarswillbespeedilyfoundandusedwhenneeded.

Mobility is changing from product to services business


30

Theopportunitiesforsuppliersconsistnotonlyofprovidingfleetsofcarsandinfrastructurebutalsoofinformationserviceswhichmaketotaljourneyplanningpossiblewithswitchingbetweendifferentmodesoftransport–thankstoreal-timetrafficinformation,trafficcontrolsystems,mobilitymaps,accesstechnology,andticketing,allstemmingfromonesource.Publictransportdevelopsintoaplatformsupplier,traditionalcarmanufacturersbecomeprovidersofmobilityservices.Thepreconditionsare:Focusonthecustomer,readinessforcooperationandforfinancingnewinfrastructures.

Thisrequiresafundamentalculturalchangefrommanufacturersandoperators;amoveawayfromtheengineering-basedproducttowardsanintegratedsolutionandsystemicservicesinnovation.Thisbringsustotherisks.Itisafactthattheprincipleof“usingnotowning”canmeandemandforvehicleswillfall.Jobscanbelostatpreciselythetraditionalcomponentsuppliers.Whilenewjobsarecreatedfornewcomponents,suchasbatteriesorelectricmotors,ontheotherhandcompetencesaregraduallylostforcombustionenginesandgearbox-es.Theelectricmotorisrevolutionisingthewholepowertrainandbrakesandsteeringaswell.Thisisasystemicnewapproach.Thequestionisonly,whowillbenefitfromitandwhere.Onbalance,anegativeeffectonvaluecreationcanbepredicted.Lossesindevelop-mentandproductioncannotbeoffsetbyanewrangeofservicesoffered.

Effects

32

Entry scenarioIntheemergingnationsnewcompetitorsaregaininggroundwithsignificantmarketsharesandcustomersegments.IntheprivatecarareaitisparticularlyAsianmanufacturerswithmuchlowerdevelop-ment,productionanddistributioncostswhoaredominatingthelow-costsegmentwithitshugepotentialforgrowth.Low-costproduc-tionishardlypossibleinGermany.Shoulditbeforcedthroughbyglobalcompetition,thiswouldbeadisruptionimpactingonthelabourmarketandthewholeofsociety.Germanmanufacturersshouldaimtocounteractanysuchtrendwithhigherquality.Higherqualitymeanshigherprices.Thepreconditionmustbeanintensificationofresearchanddevelopment,somethingwhichmustalsobeunderstoodbythepoliticians.

New competitors change the mobility market


32

Whenelectro-mobilityandmobilityservicesincreaseingeneral,newplayerspreviouslyalientothesectoralsoclaimashareofthebusi-ness:forthemitisanopportunity,fortraditionalautomobilemanufac-turersandtheirsuppliersitismoreofarisk.

Intheautomobilesectortraditionalenterprisescanalsobenefitwhentheycooperatewiththenewactors,oriftheyconsciouslysetthem-selvesapartfromthelow-costsupplierswithlittleproductvariety.Inthefieldofelectro-mobilityadditionalopportunitiesarisethroughenterprisesdevelopingandproducingtheirowne-components,throughinnovativeplatformstrategies,andthemanufactureofnewcompositematerials.Risksforvaluecreationariseforenterpriseswhosesalespotentialiscutbythemarketentryofnewcompetitors.Inthelongtermthereisadangerthatcustomerswilladoptalow-cost,high-qualitymentality.Thatwouldimpairreadinesstopayappropriatepricesforhighclassproducts.

TrainandaircraftconstructionisalsofacedwithcompetitionfromtheFarEast.Capacitiesandtechnicalqualityhavereachedalevelwhichenablesthenewcontractorstosupplyinternationalmarkets:localtolocalisfollowedbylocaltoglobal.Aviationcanbepredictedtobeagrowingmarket,whichreducestherisktosales,unlesscompetitionisdistortedbyextremeprotectionistmeasures.Competitionisgrowingforsuppliersthroughnewaircraftconceptsinthemediumhaularea.Atthesametime,forGermany’ssupplierstoaircraftconstructionthereispotentialsincetheymakeacontributiontothenewcompeti-torsbeingabletoofferproductsatworldmarketlevel.Germanmanufacturersalreadyhavealeadinsubstitutesforscarcerawmaterialsandinrecycling.Heretheycancontinuetoraisetheirprofile.

Inthepremiumautomotivesegmentthereisafundamentaldangerthatjobswillbelost.Newdemandinthelabourmarketcomesfromthesalesanddistributionstructuresofforeignmanufacturersandinmobilityservices.Inviewofthegrowingmarket,anincreaseinjobsisalsotobeexpectedinaircraftconstruction.However,thetotalsumoftheimpactonthelabourmarketisneutralatbest.

Effects

34

Entry scenarioAkeytechnologyofelectro-mobilityisthebattery.Amajorincreaseinenergydensity–ashiftawayfromleadandtowardsthelithium-ionaccumulator–waswhatmadetheboominnewelectricvehiclespossibleinthefirstplace.Intheyear2030electro-mobilitywillhavefinallymadethebreakthrough.Thismeansnewplayersforcetheirwayintothemarket,thereisashiftintraditionalpowerrelationships,classiccorebusinessdisintegrates.Newplayersinthegame,forexample,arealsomunicipalitiesandtheirutilities,andenterpriseswhichhavespecialisedinmanagingvehiclefleets.Electricvehiclesareespeciallywell-suitedforshortjourneys:theyaretheclassiclast-milevehicle.Allinall,electro-mobilitywillleadtocomplexvaluecreatenetworkswithtraditionalautomobilemanufacturersandtheirsuppliers,energysupplyenterprises,softwareproducers,theopera-torsofaccountsettlementsystemsandmobilityserviceprovidersandusercommunities.Therelativemarketpoweroftheplayerswillcruciallydependontheirskillinforgingalliances.

Electro-mobility leads to new structures of value creation


34

Enterpriseswhichenterthemarketwithnewsuppliesatanearlystagehaveanearly-moveradvantage.Itcanbepredictedthatthevaluecreationproportionofbatteries(inplug-inhybridsandpurelyelectricvehicles)includingtheservicesroundtheenergystoragesystemwillbeconsiderable,eveniftheaccumulatorsbecomelowerinprice.Incontrast,thepreviouskeytechnology,thepowertrain,willrelativelydeclineinimportance.Batterytechnologyisresource-inten-sive.Notonlylithiumbutalsocobalt,nickelandcopperareusedalongwithhightechrawmaterialssuchasneodymiumforthecontrolelectronics.ForalltheseresourcesitmustbestatedthatGermanydoesnothavethem,ornotenoughofthem,whichwithoutanydoubtputssecurityofsupplyinjeopardytoadegreewhichmustbetakenseriously!

Electro-mobilitycontributestothelong-termsafeguardingofjobsintheGermanautomobileindustry.Higherproductivityinthemanufac-tureoftheelectricmotorpossiblyconstitutesanegativeimpulseforemployment.Forthedevelopmentofgrossvaluecreationitwillbecrucialwhetherthemajorpartsofthecorecomponentofelectro-mobility,thebattery,canbeproducedinGermany.Theassumptionsofarmustbethatonlybatteriesforthetopsegmentwillbeproducedinthiscountry.

Effects

36

Entry scenarioTheexpansionofelectro-mobilityrequiresnewformsofenergyprovision.Thedrawbacksofbatteriesareforeseeableyetremain:highweightandvolume.Thisfoilseffortstoreducevehicleweightbylightweightconstruction.Yetenergy-efficientandthuscarbondioxidereducedmobilityisbecomingmoreandmorenecessary.Asolutioncouldemergeby2030atthelatestiftheelectriccurrentrequiredisgeneratedandsuppliedalongthemobilitynetworks–perhapsevenregainedandstored.Intelligentsolutionstendtobedecentralisedsolutions.Theyembedthegenerationofrenewableenergyindwell-ings,offices,storehouses,citydistrictsorfactoriesandintegratethefunctionissmartenergynetworks.

Integration of mobility and energy networks


36

Inthiscasetransportservicesfromdoortodoorarecalculatedinkilowatthoursperkilometre.Thecostsvaryaccordingtotheplaceandtimeofdayandalsoaccordingtotheweightandpaceofthegoodstobecarried.Thechangeintheenergysystem,withlessdiesel/petrolandmore(transport)current,makesnewregulationsandcontrolsystemsprobable.Infuturetherearelikelytobedifferentiatedtariffs,whichchargecostsaccordingtotimeorformofuse,suchasforhaulageorforprivatehouseholds.Alltheseharbouropportunities.

Thedevelopmentofelectro-mobilityintegratedintotheenergynetworkofthefuturedemandsmajorinvestment,bothintechnologyandininfrastructure.Inthelongtermthiscancertainlyproduceimprovementsinthegeneraltransportsituation,competitiveadvan-tagesandalsosavingsintheenergysector.TheeffectsofcreatingtheinfrastructureontheGermanlabourmarketarepositive.Itisobviousthattheinvestmentalsocarriesrisks.Traditionaltransportenterpriseswhichdonotkeeppacewiththisdevelopmentlosemarketshares.

Onbalance,theintegrationoftransportandenergynetworksleadstoapositivedevelopment,withregardtobothemploymentandvaluecreation.

Effects

38

Area of activity – climate and energyClimatechange,anemergingshortageofstrategicresourcesandtheirconsequentincreaseinpriceenforcearethinkingintheenergyandrawmaterialssector.Globalpopulationgrowthiscontinuing.Theglobalpopulationwillrisefromthecurrentseventoeightbillionbytheyear2030.Theeconomiccatchingupprocessesintheemerginganddevelopingcountriesmustbeaddedtothesefactors.Asaconse-quence,demandforresourcesincreases.

Theremodellingofenergysystemsandtheraisingofresourceefficiencyareriskyprojectswhichalsoinvolvesubstantialcosts.Successdependsonthecloseinterlockingofdifferentfieldsofcompetenceandindustries.Reliableplottingofthecoursebythepoliticiansisaprecondition.Inanycase,theremodellingofenergysystemsdependstoadecisiveextentonsocialacceptance.Thatisdemonstratedbythecurrentdebate.Inparticular,thebalancingoftheinterestsofthoseaffectedlocallyandofthosebenefitingbeyondregionshasnotyetmatured.Newformsofcompensationcouldmaketheircontribution.Acentralissueisdecarbonisation,theavoidanceofcarbondioxideemissions,whetherinenergygeneration,inmobility,andinindustrialprocessesingeneral.Onealternativewouldbethematerialutilisationoftheclimategas.


38

Explanationsontheeffectsofthedisruptionsofvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101.


1 Extensivedecentralisation +/(-) +/- ofenergysupply

2 Globallyafasterandmoreconsistent + +/(-) switchtorenewableenergies

3 Extensivedependenceonenergy - - imports

4 Contestfornewsourcesofraw - - materialsandenergy

5 TechnologiesforCO2exploitationfind + + broadapplication

Figure 8:Disruptions in the climate and energy area of activity

40

Entry scenarioCarriedalongbypoliticaldiscussionsandmoodswhichincreasinglyturnagainstglobalisation,againstinfrastructureprojectsandbigindustry,thependulumswingsinpolicy-makingforenergy.Itswingsawayfromcentrallyorganisedstructureswithgreatpowerandtowardsdecentralisedpowergenerationinsmall-scalenetworks,althoughtheincreaseduseoflocation-boundwindandsolarpowerdemandsmajorinnovativeintegratedgrids.

Thepreconditionforeveryconceptisforthecoursetobeclearlymappedoutatthepoliticallevel,accompaniedbylastingacceptancebythegeneralpublic.Inthecaseofasustainedpreferencefordecentralisedenergysupplytherewouldbeconsistentinstallationofcombinedheatandpowerunitsinbuildings.Progressinphoto-volta-ics,inwindpower,biogasandelectro-chemistrycouldleadtoadownrightboominrenewableenergies.Ifthedecisivebuildingblocksfornewconceptsinenergysupplydonotfindblanketacceptance,thiscouldalsoleadtodisruptions.

Extensive decentralisation of energy supply


40

Whentheimpactonvaluecreationisconsidered,apictureemergeswithlightandshadows.DecentralisedenergygenerationbenefitsSMEs,especiallyintheinstallationandmaintenanceoftheplantandinheatinsulation.Large-scaleproductionmeanspricesarecut.Inaggressivecompetition,Asianproducersofphoto-voltaicsandwindpowerplantgainground.Atthesametime,thedependenceontheweatherofdecentralisedenergygenerationpushesupenergypricesandincreaseslandconsumption.Powergenerationcostsrise,consequentlyGermanybecomesanelectricityimporter,valuecreationfalls.

Suchascenarioisstronglypromotedbypoliticalframeworkcondi-tions.Thisappliestoenterprisesbutalsotoinvestorsandprivatehouseholds.YettheframeworkoughttoextendbeyondGermanyandcreatecomparableconditionsthroughouttheEU.Theinstrumentsofenergyandclimatepolicyshouldbecoordinatedintheprocessinordertopreservethecompetitivenessofmarketparticipants.IfGermanyleadsthewaydownthispathitcancontinuetoextenditsinternationalleadindecentralisedenergysupply,theintegrationofdifferentenergysourcesandofstoragetechnology.

Throughthedevelopmentandproductionofsmall-scaleinfrastruc-ture,valuecreationincreasesontheonehand,yetontheotheramajorshiftinbranchstructureistobeexpected.Asaresultofhigherelectricityprices,anexodusofenergy-intensivebranchesofindustryispossible.DrawingafinalbalanceoftheeffectsofthechangeofstrategyonemploymentandvaluecreationinGermanyisthereforepossibleonlytoalimitedextent.4

4 Somegoodindicationsareofferedbythestudy“Klima-undStrukturwandel–ChancenundRisikenderdeutschenIndustrie”,IW-AnalysenNo.69,Cologne2011

Effects

42

Entry scenarioGermanyisacountrywithfewrawmaterials.Theglobaltransformationprocessisnowredrawingthegeopoliticalmapforenergysupply.Forexample,largepartsofnaturalgasdepositsaresituatedaroundtheCaspianSea.IntheregionChinawillofferstiffercompetitionwithRussia.InAfrica,ChineseandEuropeaninterestscontinuetoclashinexploitingtherichsourcesofrawmaterialsandenergy.Strategicrawmaterialsareanimportantissuehere.ThealtercationsaboutChineseexportrestrictionsforrareearthswhichareneededforcontrollingelectronicdevicesareonlyaforetaste.Traderestrictionsarespreading.

The contest for sources of raw materials and energy


42

Germanyalsohasitsunconventionalsourcesofrawmaterials:amongthemarelandfillminingandurbanmining.Whenpricerelationschange,thesesourcesbecomethefocusofhighlyspecialisedsupplierswithnewtechnologiesforaccess,logisticsandexploitation.Thiscoversmineralrawmaterialsaswellasmetals.Thecradle-to-cradleprinciplecouldbeintheascendantaswellasthetrendtoclosed-loopcyclesformaterialsandgoods.Ifrawmaterialsaretobere-introducedintoeconomiccycles,however,aredesignofmanyproductsisessential.Re-useandrecyclingmustalreadybetakenintoconsiderationatthedesignstage.NationalandEuropeanregulationsarenecessaryforthis.Theyshouldbejustifiedwithrespecttopricerelations.

Despitealltheopportunities,thefactremainsthatGermany,asanindustrialnationwithfewrawmaterials,isatseriousriskfromshortagesofsupplyforimportantresources.GrowingdemandforrawmaterialsfromAfricannationsandanascentrivalrybetweenChinaandEuropeleadtofurtherpriceincreasesforrawmaterials.

ThebottomlineisthataperceptiblelossofvaluecreationinGermanyislooming.Risingimportpricesareathreattothedepthofvaluecreationandtothecompetitivenessoftherelevantbranchesofindustry.

Effects

44

Area of activity – health and nutritionThehealthsectorisintheprocessofbecomingoneofthemostimportantfuturemarketsofall.Anumberofstrongdrivingforcesareleadingtorisingdemandforhealthproductsandservices,themostimportantbeingscientificandtechnologicalprogressinmedicaltechnology,pharmacy,andbio-technology.Oneexampleisthedevelopmentofimagingproceduresinradiologyinrecentyears:fromasimpleX-raytocomputer-assistedcross-sectionalimagingwhichdepictsthewholebodyindetailintheshortestoftime.Sowhatwillbepossibleinanothertwodecades?

Individualisedformsoftherapyoccupyakeypositionintheemer-genceofnewvaluecreationpotential.Theintegrativemomentumoffuturevaluecreationcanbeseenparticularlyclearlyinso-calledpersonalisedmedicine:researchwhichburststheboundsofindividu-aldisciplines,andbrancheswhicharenolongeralientoeachotherbutinteractmoreandmore.Newoffersarisewithtailor-madeservices;productsandservicesblendintohybridsystemsoffers.Here,onceagain,itisinformationandcommunicationtechnologywhichenablestheexchangeofknowledgeandcooperationtoapreviouslyunknowndegree.Theelectronichealthcardnowbeingdevelopedisonlyonebuildingblockinthisdevelopment.

Humanbeingshaveaninherentdesireforalonglifeingoodhealth.Alreadytodaynewchallengesareemergingwithpeoplelivingappreci-ablelonger.Medicalpossibilitiesreinforcetheneedforinformationandprevention.Searchenginesmakeiteasierforpeopletotakeontheresponsibilityforlookingaftertheirownhealth.Convergingtrendsarelikelytoleadtotipping-pointdisruptionsinhealthinsurance(limitingtoseriousrisks,novelcombinationswithownpreventivecare)andinhealthcare(morecompetition,theeliminationofsegmentation,forexamplebetweendoctorswiththeirownpracticesandhospitals).


44

Explanationsoftheeffectsofdisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101

Figure 9:Disruptions in the health and nutrition area of activity


1 Personalisedmedicine + + experiencesbreakthrough

2 Massiverestrictionof -/+ -/+ publichealthcare

3 Systemssupplierschangecompetition +/- + inthehealthsector

4 Newconvergingmarkets + +/- ariseinfoodsector

5 Sustainablenutritionmanagement + - winsthrough

6 Shortageofrawmaterialsin + -/+ agriculturalsector

Thegrowingconvergencebetweenbranchesisnotleasttobeseeninthenutritionindustry.Newtechnologiesfindtheirwayintotheconventionalfoodmarket.Theoldboundariesbetweenfoodandpharmaceuticalsaredissolved.Theblendingofhealthandnutritionsectorsleadstofar-reachingchangesinvaluecreationprocesses.Newmarketscomeintobeingwithnewplayers.

46

Entry scenarioItstartswithinnovation.Progressinmoleculardiagnosticsandthelow-costanalysisofbio-markersopenupnewfieldsofactivity.Thisappliesbothtopreventativehealthcareandtherapies.Thetraditionalassessmentofpatientsaccordingtoage,sexandfamilyhistoryissupplementedbyfarmorepreciseandthusfarmoreeffectivefeatures,suchascanbefoundineachindividualatthegeneticlevel.Thisisalreadyhappeningtoday,suchasinthetreatmentofbowelcancerorleukaemia.However,theapplicationofsuchapproachestootherhealthproblemsstillrequiresmorebasicandtranslationalresearch,whichiscurrentlytakingplace.Personalisedmedicineislikelytoachieveitsbreakthroughby2030–startingwithselectedgroupsofpatientsforwhosecomplaintsthegeneticandothercauseswillhavebeensufficientlyresearched.

Personalised medicine achieves a breakthrough


46

Theeffectsofpersonalisationarenottobeunderestimated.Thestartingpointisdata.Itcanbepredictedthatvaluecreationwillfirsttakeplaceinthestronggrowthareaofpreventionanddiagnostics,includingwiththehelpofspecialsensorsorimplantedchips.Meas-urementsarefollowedbyevaluationandvisualisationofthedataandtheirtransformationintoinformationthatcanbeapplied.Theconver-genceofmedicineandinformationtechnologyleadstonewbusinessmodels.ManykindsofITsupportservices,suchasdatatransferandmonitoringpatientsintheirownfourwalls,willgiveafurtherboosttopersonalisedmedicine.Thefactthatthehealthdataofmanyindividu-alsarepermanentlyonhandwillalsohaveamajorinfluenceonnutrition,theworldofwork,andevenonlivesathome.Theopportu-nitiesalsoincludeindividualisedwellnessofferslinkedtosportandtravel.

Newfinancingmodelsfordiagnosticprocedures,formsoftherapyandmedicamentsbringopportunitiesforpatientsbutalsoharboursignificantrisks.Blockbusters(medicamentsforlargegroupsofpatients)willtosomeextentbereplacedby“mini-busters”(nicheproducts)–presentingahigherfinancialriskforpharmaceuticalenterprises.Thedevelopmentwillalsoleadtolargequantitiesofsensitivepersonaldatabeingonhand.Manypeoplewillwonderwhethertheirmedicalhistoryisanybusinessofthestate,insurers,oremployers.Fearofthearrivalofthe“glasspatient”willbemorestronglyvoiced–notleastbydoctorswhosemethodsoftreatmentbecomemoretransparentandopentocomparison.

Personalisationofmedicinewillleadtoanopeningofmarketsforprivatecontractorsandanewwaveofprivatisationofthecosts.Multi-classmedicinedependingontheinformationavailable(expost)wouldprovokeconsiderableresistanceinsociety.Newservicesandproductsleadtopositiveemploymenteffectsandvaluecreationrises.However,risinghealthinsurancechargescouldimpairinternationalcompetitivenessiftheycontinuetoimpactonlabourcostsasisthecasewiththeexistingregulationsandarenotbornebytheindividual.Risingcontributionfortherecipientsofstatebenefits,financedbythestate,couldleadtoadisruptivelimitationoftreatmentspaidforbystatutoryhealthinsurers.

Effects

48

Entry scenarioInfuturefoodwillnotmerelytastegoodandbehealthybutatthesametimepromotehealthandevenbeauty.Theboundariesbetweenfoodandmedicineandalsocosmeticswillevaporate.

Pharmaceuticalcompaniessupplyfoodthatisgoodforthehealth.Foodproducerspenetratesalesmarketswithhealthrelevance:healthfoodshops,drugstoresandchemists.Cosmeticsmanufacturersmoveintothefoodandhealthareas.Allthreeoperators,pharmaceuticals,foodandcosmeticsmanufacturers,exerttheirinfluenceonagricul-tureinordertosecuretheirrawmaterialsbaseandtocontrolitintheirowninterests.Biotechnologyandgeneticengineeringgainimportance.Intraditionalagricultureseedsbecomethefactordecidingsuccess.

New converging markets appearing in the food sector


48

Themainriskforthisdevelopmentliesinsocialacceptance.Arethesubstanceswhichhaveabiologicaleffectreallysafe?Andwhataboutsideeffectsanddamagetotheenvironment?Inordertobeabletoanswerquestionssuchasthese,considerableinvestmentisneces-saryinresearchanddevelopment,togetherwithmarketingandpublicrelationsworkinordertocounterpublicmisgivings.Newlegalregulationscomeintoforce.Rawmaterialsmarketsconstitutealimitingfactor,andhereitisabovealltheraresubstanceswhichpresupposerichbiodiversity.

Newproductsleadtopositiveemploymenteffects.Newvaluecreationprocessesarepossibleinagriculture.

Effects

50

Entryscenario

ThereareseriousfoodcrisesinAfrica,Asia,andLatinAmerica.Thenumberofthosestarvingrisesdramatically.Thereasonisthescarcityofthemostvitalrawmaterialsforagriculture:water,fertilizer,andeffectivecropprotectionagents,suchaspesticides.Landavailableforcropsislost.Otherareasaredegraded.Theextensivecultivationofenergyplantsandanimalfeedleadstoafurtherdropinplantfoodproduction.Risingoilandgaspriceshaveahugeeffectonthecostoffertilizer.Theshareofconventionallyusedandhighlyindustrialisedagricultureofthetotalareaoflandusedforagriculturecouldfall.

However,beforethesechangedframeworkconditionsleadtounder-nourishment,sickness,anddeathformanyhumanbeings,thedisruptiveemergenceofgeneticallymodifiedorganisms(GMO),someofwhich,forexample,cancopebetterwithashortageofwater,opensupnewopportunities.AridityandextremeweatheraffectareasoutsideGermanyinparticular.TheycouldbenefitfromGMOs.Nevertheless,thefoodmarketinGermanycouldbecomeasupplier’smarketwithdomesticagriculturegainingcompetitiveness.Increasedcompetitionforlandbenefitsenterpriseswhichoffersolutionsclosetourbancentres,includingverticalfarmingwithelaboratecropsequencesattoplevel.Second-generationbio-fuelswhicharenolongerbasedoncropsbutonplantwasteprovidefarmerswithadditionalrevenue.Inviewofthehugeglobalproblems,includingforthesecuritysituation,therearepoliticalchangesintheregulationofbio-technology.

Shortage of raw materials in the agricultural sector


50

Agriculturalenterprisesinregionsremotefrommarketsandlackingfavourablenaturalconditionsbenefitfromnewcompetitiveopportuni-ties.Enterprisesinthefoodandanimalfeedindustrywhichrelyonimportsareconfrontedwithvolatileandsteeplyrisingpurchasingprices.

EmploymentintheGermanagriculturalsectorremainsstablebe-causerisingcostscanbepassedontothoseconsumerswhotendtorejectgeneticallymodifiedfood.Therearemorejobsinthechemicalindustryandinagriculturaltechnologies.Onbalance,theeffectforvaluecreationinGermanyislikelytobearoundneutraltoslightlypositive.

Effects

52

Area of activity – communicationThefutureoftheinternethasonlyjustbegun.Itissteadilypervadingallareasoflife.Virtualnetworking,flexibleformsofcooperationandorganisationarecatapultingcommunicationintoanewdimension.

Enterprisesfindthemselvesincreasinglyconfrontedwithnewcus-tomercommunitiesandmustorientatetheirvaluecreationprocessesmorecloselythanevertotheneedsoftheirtargetgroups.

Machinesreactdirectlytothespokenword,knowledgemanagementinenterprisesisrevolutionised.Therealworld–livingspaces,vehiclesandhighways–isequippedwithsensors,andinformationandcommunicationtechnology.Itmergeswiththevirtualworldandtheworldofpeople.The“InternetofThings”isborn.


52

Explanationsoftheeffectsofthedisruptionsofvaluecreationcanbefoundonp.101

Figure 10:Disruptions in the communications area of activity

PoSItIon dISruPtIon eMPloyMent value creatIon

1 Individualisedmediause +/- + becomesstandard

2 The“InternetofThings”opensup + + completelynewbusinesspotential

3 Community-basedcustomerbehaviour + + burststheboundsoftraditional businessmodels

4 Knowledge-basedsystemsat (-)/+ + thecentreoffuturevaluecreation

54

Entry scenarioIntelligentsurroundingsandinteractingobjectsfacilitatepeople’slives.Trafficflowscanbeoptimisedtoconserveresources.Productsareequippedwithamemorythatcancommunicatewithitsenviron-ment.Robotsrecognisetheirphysicalenvironmentandcanactindependently.Productionandlogisticprocessesarefurtherauto-mated,renewableenergiescanbebetterutilisedandpeopleathomearesupportedinconspicuously(ambientassistedliving).

The“InternetofThings”opensupenormousbusinesspotentialintheareasofautomation,logistics,automobiles,health,agingpopulation,environment,energy,businessprocessesandsecurity.Industrialproductionwillundergoafundamentalchange.Technicalsystemswillthemselvestakeovermanagement,controlandplanning.

The “Internet of Things” taps completely new business potential


54

Greateffortsarebeingmadeinthisarea,namelyintheUSAandChina.Interdisciplinaryworkinresearchanddevelopmentisbecom-ingacriticalfactorinsuccess.Systemsanddomainknow-howformsthetechnologicalbase.Inparticular,thetransferofresearchresultstoapplicationsmustbespeededup.Sustainablebusinessmodelsandpreciselytailoredcustomersolutionsmustbedeveloped.OnlyifGermanyconsistentlyexploitstheinnovationpotentialoftheinternetcanitcontinuetoplayinthetopleague.Educationandtrainingareadecisiveprecondition.Thismeansknowledgeandroutineinhandlingthedigitalmediainparticular.

TheimpactonemploymentispositiveowingtothemajorbusinesspotentialandthegoodstartingpositionofGermanindustryinrelevantapplications.Grossvaluecreationbenefitsaboveallthroughariseinproductivity.

Effects

56

Entry scenarioTheinternetisbecomingnotonlyincreasinglypivotalforbusinessactivitiesbutisalsomoreandmoreformingtheplatformforcustom-ers.Customercommunitiestherebyacquireincreasinglystrongernegotiatingpowerasagainstsuppliers.Theopenexchangeofexperiencesoftheinternetcollectivemeansnotonlyaclearriseinproducttransparency.Informationaboutbadworkmanshipandpoorservicespreadsinamatterofhours.Evensporadicproductdeficien-ciescanleadtoanabruptlossoftrust.Thatiswhyhighproductqualityiscruciallyimportantintheageoftheinternetasneverbefore.Theinternetconfersoncustomerstheabilitytocompareoffersmuchmorequicklyandtochangetheirsupplier.Ataremarkablespeedcustomersact,fluctuateandreplacesuppliers.However,theattacksofthesecommunitiesdonotalwaysconformtotherulesoffairplay.

Community based customer behaviour bursts the bounds of traditional business models


56

Inthemarketplacethepositionsofcompetitors,suppliersandcustomersareinmotion.Businessenterprisescanbesteamrolleredbythisdynamicprocess,ortheycanexploititfortheirownends.Prideofplaceistakenbyemotionalcustomerandbrandbondingforwhichthefoundationstoneiscredibleandprofessionalcommunica-tion.Solutionssuchascloudcomputingandsoftwareasaservicehavegreatpotentialforbindingcustomers.However,thevarietyofapplications,coupledwithgeneralcostpressureandadropinprices,generatesspecialmarketstructureswhosedynamismfaroutstripsthatoftheclassicdisplacementcompetition.Inaddition,earlycustomerbondingpromisesnotonlyanimprovementinproductsbutalsothattheirfurtherdevelopmentwillbeorientedtodemand.

Germanindustryisingoodshapetofacethesechallenges.Germanbrandsenjoyanexcellentreputationtheworldover.Thatiswhyaslightlypositiveeffectonemploymentistobeexpected.Thesameappliestogrossvaluecreation.

Effect

58

Entry scenarioAllstepsinabusinessprocessaresupportedbyknowledge-basedsystems.Atanytimestaffcancallupdataandinformation,irrespec-tiveofwhereitistobefound.Intheprocessnewcontext-relatedknowledgeisgenerated.Routinetasksareautomatedandtendtobeeliminated.Bymeansofknowledgemanagementandknowledge-basedsystems,enterprisesandproductionprocessescanbecontrol-ledinrealtime,drawingoninformationfromallovertheworld.Technicalsystemsalsoexchangeknowledgeindependently.Robotsorsoftwareagentswhichcarryoutcontroltasksareexamples.Thesealsoincludeautomaticproductionsystems.Knowledge-basedsystemsplayakeyroleinthe“InternetofThings”.Theendresultisincreasedproductivityandefficiency.Whetherinthehealthsector,themobilityorenergyindustry,comprehensiveinformationisthefounda-tionforavarietyofnewbusinessmodels–dataasthe“virtualgold”ofanetworkedeconomy.

Knowledge-based systems at the centre of future value creation


58

Asalways,thereisadownside.Dataprotectionanddatasecuritytakecentrestage.Criticismfromnumerousscepticsleadstoimprove-ments.Itisoftendemonstratedinpracticethatknowledgemanage-mentisnotrivialmatter.Beingswampedbyinformationisandremainsanissueandthesameappliestodatagraveyards.Aboveall,knowledgeandknowledgetransferinorganisationsarealwaysattachedtopeopleandarepartofthecorporateculture.Knowledgeconferspowerandthereforemustnotbetheprivilegeofindividualpersons.Itispreciselyinthisfieldthatinformationandcommunica-tiontechnologymakesasignificantcontributionthroughthedevelop-mentofintelligentalgorithmsforpowerfulsearchengines.

Numerousservicesarisearoundknowledge-basedsystems,forexampleinfurthertraining.Theseopportunitieswillbegraspednotonlybythemajorplayersbutalsobynicheenterprises.Whereasroutinejobswillceasetoexist,atthesametimenewjobswillariseforsoftwarespecialists,architectsofknowledge-basedsystems,systemsadministratorsandspecialistsforintelligentagentsandassociatedjobprofiles.Theemploymenteffectispositive.ForGermanindustryknowledge-basedsystemsalsocontributetoenhancementofexportcapacity.Thisresultsinapositiveeffectforgrossvaluecreation.

Effects

60

Area of activity – securityTheworldofthefuturewillalsobeavulnerableworld.Anditsvulnerabilityisheightenedbythenetworkingofcomplexsystems,thevirtualisationofbusinessprocessesandtheautomationofworkprocesses.Contemporarycivilisationisespeciallydependentonitsinfrastructure,whichwillbeallthemoretrueinfuture.Especiallyworthyofprotectionaretheareasofenergy,includingalltheutilitysupplies(gas,water,districtheating),health,transport,communica-tions,andnaturallythesupplyoffoodforthepopulationandofrawmaterialsforindustry.Themutualinterdependenceofthesystemswillbecomeevenmoreintensive,especiallywithregardtomobilityandenergy.Inallbranchesofindustrytheissueofsecurityistakingonfargreaterrelevance.


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Explanationsontheeffectsofthedisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101

Figure 11: Disruptions in the security area of activity


1 Increasedsystemscomplexity–greater + + hazardpotential–extentofglobalharm

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Entry scenarioThescenariosforthreatsareasdiverseasthetargetsunderattack.Theycanbetriggeredbyenvironmentalcatastrophes,potentiallyindimensionsneverpreviouslyexperienced,withtheprincipalcausebeingclimatechange.Casesoftechnicalfailurecanalsoberesponsi-ble,withotherpossibilitiesbeingterrorismorwhitecollarcrime.Asarule,theperpetratorsarehardtoidentify,theyoftenemployanelementofsurprise.Targetedattacksoncriticalpoints–thewatersupplyorpowerstations,forexample–cancausedramaticdamageandhazards.Cascadingeffectsarealwayspossible,infutureevenmoresowithincreasinginterconnectivity.The“InternetofThings”isultimatelyatechnologywhichdrivesthenetworkingofsystemsforwardtoadecisiveextent.Thereisacorrespondingdegreeofpotentialharm,forexamplebytargetedviralattacksonITsystemsorotherformsofcybercrime.

Increased systems complexity – greater hazard potential – extent of global harm


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Thevulnerabilityofinfrastructureisequivalenttothevulnerabilityofsociety.Atriskarestateinstitutions,IT-basedbusinessprocesses,organisations,firmsandadministrations,industrialcomplexesandtransportsystems,gatheringsofpeopleandmajorevents.Thislistalonemakesitclearhowfragilewhatwecallnormalityhasbecome.Thetargetsofattacksarefrequentlypersonswhoarenotinvolvedoronlypresentbychance.Thoseaffectedfeelbothhelplessandpowerless.

Asthethreatsincrease,sodoesinterestindefenceagainstthem.Securitystandardsaretightenedup,ifnotvoluntarilythenbyregula-tion.Suppliersofeffectivesolutionsinsecurityissueswillmeetwithmajordemand.Theseincludedigitalprotectionmechanisms,high-performancesecuritysoftwareandconsultancyservices.Thesuscep-tibilityofsupplynetworkscanpossiblybecounteredwithadditionalcapacitytoabsorbandcushiondisruptionandbyincreasingreserves.Asarule,highersafetystandardsalsomeanhighercosts.

Germanenterprisesdependoncomplexsecurityproductsandserviceswhichdeterminetheircompetitivenesstoaconsiderabledegree.Thisistrueofthesoftwarebranch,forexample,butalsoofthewholesupplyinfrastructure,fromelectricitytofood.Theknow-howofGermanindustrymustalsobesafeguarded.Directandindirectemploymenteffectsensuefromallofthesefactors.AleadingpositionforGermanyinsecuritytechnologyandknow-howharboursmajorexportpotential.

Effects

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Super-ordinate framework conditionsThefollowingdisruptionsarenotassignedtoparticularcategories.Theireffectsarefeltacrosstheboundariesofallsectorsandaregeneralissues.Theyfocusontheoverallframeworkconditionsofvaluecreation,whetherofasocial,political,ormacro-economicnature.Ongoingmonitoringofthisoverallsettingispartofthestandardrepertoryoffuturepolicyforassociationsandenterprises.


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Explanationsoftheeffectsofthedisruptionsonvaluecreationaretobefoundonp.101

Figure 12: Disruptions in the area of super-ordinate framework conditions


1 LackoftechnologyacceptanceinEurope +/(-) +/-

2 Declininglevelofqualityandinvestment + +/(-) blockagethroughlackofskilledlabour

3 Reciprocaleffectsinglobalfinance - - andmonetarysystemandemergence ofnewplayers

4 Questionmarkagainstdevelopment - - ofinternationaltraderelations

5 Completeinternalisationof + + externalcosts

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Entry scenarioTherisksofnewtechnologiesareoftenconsideredtobegreaterthantheopportunities.Thisappliesespeciallytogeneticandnanotechnol-ogy,andequallytomajortechnologicalprojects.Thepublicfeelsgreatuneaseaboutthedangersforhumanbeingsandtheenvironment.Thereasonforclingingtothestatusquoisinadequatecommunica-tionbetweenpoliticians,enterprisesandthepublic.Asaresult,manytechnologiesthathavealreadybeendevelopedarenotputtouse.Incomparisonwithotherregions,Europeriskslosingoutowingtoawidespreadattitudeofrejection.Longandcomplicateddecision-mak-ingprocessesalsoimpederapidimplementationofprojectsfromtheideatotheproductreadyformarket.

Lack of acceptance of technology in Europe


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Thisdevelopmentgivesrisetofewopportunities.Atbestthemakersofsustainableproducts,fromfoodviaclothingtode-centrallygener-ated,renewableenergies,canbenefitfromit.Theexpansionofnewinfrastructureisdelayedoriscancelled.Thisincludes:expandingairports,constructingsmartgridsoroffshorewindparks.Publicinvestmentinresearchintonewtechnologiesfalls.Asaresult,industryrelocatesitsresearchanddevelopmentactivitiesinregionsmorefriendlytoinnovation,inAsiaandNorthandSouthAmerica.TheconsequencesforgrowthandcompetitivenessinEuropeanindustryaredramatic.

Suchdevelopmentsindicateaclearlynegativeinfluenceonemploy-mentinGermany.Atfirstmanufacturingindustryishit,followedbytheservicessector.Aslumpingrossvaluecreationisprobable.Realincomesfallbyinternationalstandards.

Effects

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Entry scenarioThereasonsforthefuturelackofskilledlabouraremanifold.Thedemographicdevelopmentisamajorfactor:fewerandfeweryoungpeople,moreandmoreelderlyones.Thenumberofyoungpeopleenteringthelabourmarketisfalling.Thereisnoshortageofideasonhowtocounteracttheshortageofskilledlabour.Theyrangefrommeasurestocutthenumberoftraineesabandoningtrainingtorecruitingsuitablyqualifiedpersonnelfromabroad.Ifthesemeasuresfailtohaveresults,thelackofskilledworkersandtop-levelstaffwillbedramaticbytheyear2030.Thisappliesabovealltoprofessionslinkedtomathematics,engineering,science,andtechnology,andalsothoseinhealthandnursingcare.Thedevelopmenthasseriousconsequencesfortheinnovativepoweroftechnologicalcompanies.Partsofenterpriseswillbemovedabroad.Germanywillsteadilylosegroundasanindustriallocation.

Declining level of quality and blockage of investment through lack of skilled labour


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Ifintelligentprocedureisfollowed,therearealsoopportunitiesinthisdevelopment.Valuecreationshiftstoenterpriseswhichmakeeffectiveuseoftheirskilledstaff.Thedegreeofautomationrises.Thereisanexpansioninworkthatismobileandindependentoflocation.Enterprisesfocusonsynergyeffectsbyusingskilledpersonnelfrompartnersinvaluecreation,forexamplethroughopeninnovationandprojectwork.Thereisalsogreaterautomationinmedicineandnursingcare,forexampleinmonitoringnursingcarepatientsviatheinternet.

However,theriskspredominate.Enterpriseswhicharenotabletosecuretheskilledpersonneltheyrequirefallbehindinthecompetitiveprocess.Theycannotcompeteintheinnovationrace.Thisispartlytheresultofhighwagecosts,ifindeedthewageslevelcanbeheldto.Valuecreationmovestootherregions,suchasAsia.Ifthingsgowell,Germanfirmsrelocateorcreatenewlocationsabroad.Iftheygobadly,thewholevaluecreationmigrates.Areductioninemploymentcanbeexpectedaboveallintheexportindustryandthehealthsector,alongwithjobsinmathematics,engineering,scienceandtechnology.Inextremecases,wholeareaswillberelocatedifkeypostscannotbefilled.Valuecreationinproducingindustryfalls.Theprofitsofthesuppliersofautomationtechnologywillnotbeabletomakeupforthisloss.

Effects

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Entry scenarioGlobalregulationofthefinancialmarketsintheG-20frameworkremainsdifficult.Itispossiblethatthebanksslipbackintoriskyspeculation.Atthesametime,manycentralbanksarekeepingtotheirpolicyofcredit-orientedexpansion.Andarealignmentofglobalmonetarypolicyisnotyetinsight.Thehighlevelofsovereigndebtinmanycountrieswillputastrainonnationalbudgetsformanyyearstocomeandcanleadtofallinginvestmentratios.Inthiscontextadoubledip,anothermonetaryandfinancialcrisis,isdefinitelypossible.Theeffectwillbetosteertheglobaleconomyintoaprotract-edrecession.Ultimately,sovereignstatesaretheguarantorsofstability.Yetsincetheyarealreadyheavilyindebt,theirroomformanoeuvreinanysubsequentcrisisisseverelylimited.Packagesrunningintobillionstostimulatetheeconomyareunlikely.

Reciprocal effects in the global finance and monetary system and the arrival of new players


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Inthissituationenterpriseswhichhaveahighlevelofequitycapitalarebetterplacedforcompetition.Yetthedecisivefactorsforwith-standingarenewedcrisisareabroad,cross-sectoralportfolioofproductsandservicesandorientationtowardsmarketsofthefuture.Newplayerssuchasinternationalsovereignwealthfundsfromoil-richcountriesorChinainvestinexpandingenterprisesorbuythemup.Naturally,dependenceoninvestorsalsohasrisksattached.Yetthechancespredominateofreducingprotectionisttendencies.

Otherrisksforthecaseofadoublediparemoreobvious.Govern-mentswillattempttocopewithadifficultsituationinthelabourmarketorintheeconomygenerallybyimposingmoreregulation.Thatcouldimposeconstraintsonenterprisesandresultintheclosingofsomelocations.Moreover,thereremainstheriskofinflation,causedbyexpansivemonetarypolicyandexcessivenationaldebt,thoughhyperinflationisnotlikely.Allthesame,adistinctriseininflationratesisbadforgrowthandemployment,notleastbecauseaslumpintaxrevenuesandahighburdenofdebtforcesgovernmentstoundertakefurthercutsininvestment.

Asanexportingnation,Germanywouldbehardhitbyanybreak-upoftheeurozoneandanotherglobaleconomiccrisis.Thelevelofemploymentwouldbelikelytofall,saleswouldplungeandamassiveslumpinvaluecreationwouldbetheconsequence.

Effects

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Entry scenarioTheglobalvolumeoftradehasbeenrisingforyears.Afterthefinancialandeconomiccrisisitdeclinedatfirstbutonanoptimisticassessmentthesignsareagainpointingtogrowthinthecomingyears.Butthingscanchange.Weareassumingincreasingprotection-ismintherawmaterialssectorandastrategicshortageofmineralandenergyrawmaterialsintheMiddleEast,RussiaorSouthAmerica.Ifthesetendenciesbecomereallyserious,industrialnationswithfewrawmaterialscouldtrytoprotecttheirdomesticmarketswithimporttariffs,borderadjustmentmeasures,orproductionsubsidies.Freeworldtradewouldsuffergreatly.

Question mark against the development of international trade relations


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Hightechenterprisesrelyonstrategicrawmaterials,asisillustratedbysomeexamples:indiumforLCDs,tantalumforcondensers,yttriumforlasers.InEuropeprotectionismleadstolostoutput.Evenenter-priseswhichrelocatetheirproductioninrawmaterialsproducingcountriesaredisadvantagedasagainstdomesticindustry.Notmerelyhigh-techenterprisesbutalsoenergy-intensivebranchessuchasthesteelindustryexperiencecompetitivedisadvantages.Chemicalandpharmaceuticalenterpriseswhichdependoncomplexchainsofsupplyforrawmaterialsandinputproductsfaceaseriousthreatfromsupplybottlenecks.ThelossofinternationalsalesmarketscreatesturmoilfortheGermanautomobileindustry.Substantialfallsinexportsforceenterprisestocutjobsandwagelevels.

Ontheotherhandthereareopportunities,thoughratherfewandfarbetween.Asustainedscarcityofrawmaterialsbenefitsthoseenter-prisesinparticularwhichopenuptheirownsourcesofrawmaterials,enhancetheirresourceefficiencyorcansubstitutecriticalrawmaterials.Opportunitiesforgrowthalsoariseforindustrieswhichoffernewsupporttechnologiesandinfrastructure,forexamplesatellite-assistedgeo-servicesorrobotsformining.

Onbalance,theeffectonemploymentismarkedlynegative.However,somenewemploymentopportunitiesariseinlocaltradesandintheservicesarea.Grossvaluecreationalsosuffers.Atrendtorisingdomesticdemandcannotmakeupforlossesinexports.

Effects

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Entry scenarioTheEuropeanUnionbecomesconvincedthatrobustecologicalcarriersystemsarecrucialforthelongtermhealthofnationaleconomies.Theenvironmentalimpactofproductsandservicesarepriced.Inthemeantimethenecessaryindicatorsandmeasuringinstrumentsareavailablesothatthemechanismwithwhichwearefamiliarfromemissionstrading(EU-ETS,EmissionTradingScheme)isappliedbranchbybranchtothewholeofindustry.Whethergreen-housegases,emissionsintheatmosphere,waterorearth,activitieswhichimpairbiodiversity,allecologicaldimensionsarecovered.Themeasuresofinternalisationgrowhandinhand.Apartfrompenalties,bonuspaymentsaregraduallymadeforproactivemeasuresinthesettingofindustry.

Complete internalisation of external costs


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Massiverestructuringsaretheconsequence.Forexample,thecomprehensiveETSsystemhikesuplogisticcosts,especiallyfortransportbyroadhaulageandfromoverseas.Localsuppliersaretheoneswhobenefit.Fortheendcustomerthereisgreatertransparencysincethepricesnowtelltheecologicaltruth.Marketopportunitiesareenhancedforthosewhowerepreviouslynichesuppliers.Thesystemofbonusesandpenaltiesalsooffersincentivestoeconomiseonmaterialortoprolongproductlifecycles.Suppliersofmodularproductswhichcanbeeasilyrepairedcanbenefitfromthis.Incontrast,thoseenterprisesloseoutwhichdonotadjusttheirproductsandproductionprocessesquicklyenoughtothechangedconditions.Energy-intensiveareasofindustrysuchasaluminiumproductioncanbeexpectedtomigrate.Theincreaseincostofenergywillleadtoserioussetbacksinnearlyallareasofindustry.Aviationandtourismwillsuffersincethepriceofairtravelwillrise.

Thetraditionalbranchesofindustryarelikelytobeseriouslychal-lengedwiththeinternalisationofexternalcosts.Asaresultofmassiverestructuring,intheshorttomediumtermmanyjobswillbemovedabroad.Thiswillaffecttheautomobileindustry,ofcentralpivotalimportanceforGermany,aswellasplantandmechanicalengineer-ing.Ontheotherhand,inthemediumtolongtermnewjobswillbecreatedininnovation-drivenbranches.Asignificantdropinvaluecreationcannotfailtooccur.Yetthiscanbepossiblyoffsetinthefieldsofrenewableenergies,environmentaltechnologyandwork-intensiveproductservices.Inthemediumtermthemostlikelyoutcomeisanincreasedlevelofemploymentwithlowerincomeperhead.

Effects

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Nowthatthepossibledisruptionsinthefivemajorareasofactivityhavenowbeeninvestigated,itshouldbepossibletogainfurtherinsightfromtheanalysisintofuturevaluecreation.Acloserscrutinyoftheresultsfromoverallperspectiveofallbranchesofindustryandenterprisesrevealssomegeneralpatterns.Fivecentralfindingsonthelong-termchangeinvaluecreation,knownastheparadigmshift,wereidentifiedaspartoftheproject.Itbecomesclearthatthingsdonotbecomesimplerbutmorecomplicated.Andvolatilityrises.

Cooperation management between sectors becomes the critical factor for success in innovation systems geared to value creation.Theboundariesbetweenbranchesofindustryhavelongbeenfluid.Thedecisivestepintothefutureisanoffensiveinterlinkingwithintraditionalbranchesandwithnewones.Thisproducesinnovationandnewbusinessmodels.Providinginexpensive,uncomplicatedandseamlessmobilityforthecustomerisamatterforplayersfromtheautomobileindustry,theenergysectorandtheITindustryaswellasrepresentativesfromcitiesandlocalauthorities.Afterall,electricautomobilesalsohavetobeparkedandrecharged.Theswitchfromcartoplaneorbicycleshouldbesimpleandrelaxed.Thisrequiresplatformswithdiversecompetencesandtheabilitytodeviseproduct-serviceinnovations,notleasttheactivemanagementoftheinterfacesinthenewhybridvaluecreationstructures.

Singleenterprisesinisolationwilltendnottobeapositiontoestablishthedecisiveinnovationsinthemarket.Thewinnerswillbethosewhosucceedinenlistingthevitalstakeholdersforjointstrategies.Thetaskinvolvesassemblingthecompetenceofinternalandexternalknowl-edgeworkersinawaythatisflexibleandproject-related.Itisaquestionoftemporarypartnershipsandtheacceptanceofsolutionsfortheuser.

5. Paradigm shift in value creation

|775.Paradigmshiftinvaluecreation

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In the change from partial to holistic innovationSystemsinnovationacrosssectoralboundariesandthedevelopmentofintegratedvaluecreationchainshaveonedecisiveprecondition:thedevelopmentofnewbusinessmodels.Seamlessmobilityrequiresofplayersfromdiversebranchesthattheycreatenewpackagesofproductsandservices.Theseconsist,forexample,ofvehicles,withrealtimetrafficinformation,trafficcontrolsystems,accesstechnologyandotherservices.Inmanycasesthereisawiderdispersionofprofits,butalsoofrisks.

Germany’sinnovationscenetodayisdominatedbyproducts,services,andprocesses.Infuture,businessmodelswillbegivencloserconsiderationfromtheoutset,togetherwiththeattendantfinancinginstrumentsandcriteria.Theperspectiveoftheuserisdecisive.

Sustainable innovations provide the central leverage of value creation.Ifthefossil-basedworldenergysystemhastobedecarbonisedinthelongtermandshortagesofrawmaterialsdemandresource-extensiveeconomy,thennobranchofindustrywillbeabletoescape.Theprocessisdrivennotonlybyecologicalbutalsosocialrequirements,withinnovationsinthetechnicalandsocialareas.Stepbysteptheissueofsustainabilityisassertingitselfinallmarkets,adevelopmentwhichblurstraditionalbranchboundariesandgivesrisetonewvaluecreationchains.Forenterprises,greaterimportanceisattachedtonewinstrumentswhichtakeaccountoftheholisticapproachofsustainability.Innovationwhichisfitforthefuturebecomesthemaindrivingforceofgrowth.

Realscarcitiesandchangedvaluesinitiatethetransformationwhichrespondstotheneweconomicnecessities.Industry’smaterialflowsandexchangeprocessesarere-configuredbecauseawarenessgrowsoflongertermscarcities.

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Formation of new alliances – from shareholder value to stakeholder valueEnterprisesoperateinincreasinglycomplexsystemsofproductsandservices,makingnewbusinessmodelsnecessary.Moreover,theyhavetocoordinatetheirbusinessactivitiesmorecloselywithdiverseinterestgroupsinordertopreservetheirlicencetooperate.Oneexampleisprovidedbytheinternetcustomercommunitiesalreadymentioned,whichsubstantiallystrengthenthepositionoftheenduserinthemarket.

Whileenterprisesfundamentallyremainorientedtoprofits,theyaresubjectedtopublicdebates.Theconcurrenceoforientationtoprofitandtothegoodofthecommunityrepeatedlytakescentrestageindiscussions.Indeed,businessactivitiescomeunderincreasingsocialpressuretojustifythemselves.Allthisproducesthefutureneedtoincludeveryearlyonthevariousstakeholders–socialgroupings,NGOs,andaboveallthecustomers–inbusinessprocesses.Thisfacilitatesinnovation.Ifthereisafailureofcommunication,problemsofacceptancecansoonemergeintherelationshipofbusinessandpoliticswithsocietyingeneral.Thisiscurrentlybecomingclearintheplanningofnewenergyinfrastructure,withdebatesoversitesforwindturbinesandroutesfornewpowerlines.Enterpriseshavetolearntoenterthisplayingfieldandtofindabalancebetweentheexpectationsofthevariousclaimantgroupings.

Enterprises,especiallythoseinmarketsclosetoconsumers,arerewardediftheysucceedinactivelyincludingcustomersandstake-holdersinvariousstagesofvaluecreation–indevelopment,produc-tion,orsales.

|795.Paradigmshiftinvaluecreation

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Change from classic planning processes to management and control of complexityItisbecomingincreasinglydifficulttoplanmarkets.Uncertaintyandinstabilityinthecompetitiveenvironmentarepartofthenewnormal-ity.Controllingthemisbecomingthecentralchallenge.Yetthatisbynomeansall.Rawmaterialspricesfluctuate,thepoliticalsettingchanges,economiccyclesgrowshorter,crisesalternatewithbooms.Thevulnerabilityoftheincreasinglyvirtualbusinessprocessesgrowsandcyberattacksareaconstantthreat.

Enterprisescanreacttohighvolatilitybyadjustingtoit,forexamplebyconcludinglong-termagreementsforrawmaterials.Theycanalsosubjecttheirmarketstopermanentmonitoringandimprovetheirownreactionspeed.Thisamountstoachangeofsystem,abandoningtheclassicplanningprocessandswitchingtothecontrolofcomplexity,possiblybyinterlinkingdifferentsystemscomponentsandoperators.Organisationalformschangeaccordingly,movingawayfromlinear-hierarchicalstructurestowardsthemanagementofflowsofcapital,goodsandmaterialindecentralisednetworks.Thefocalpointofvaluecreationmovesinthedirectionof“intelligence”(software,brainware)ofproducts,towardstheacceptanceofutilisationconceptsandnewservice-orientedbusinessmodels.

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Germanyrequiresanewinnovationpolicyorientedtovaluecreation.Thetechnologyorientationwhichhassofarbeendominantisreachingitslimits.Anopensocietythatiscapableoflearningneedsexpandedformsofparticipation,newrulesofthegameandresponsi-bilities.Itisamatterofdevelopinganewcultureofinnovationbasedontheparticipationofthegroupsaffectedandwhichaimsatabasicconsensusinsociety.Thenewcultureofinnovationrequiresinter-branchcooperation,anoverallenvironmentandpolicy-makingdevisedforthelongterm.Nottheleastofitsrequirementsisanewunderstandingofthecommonchallengesandtherecognitionthatthecomplexproblemscanonlybemasteredbytheinteractionofindustry,science,politicsandsociety.Inthislightinnovationcanbeseentodayasaffectingthewholeofsociety.Itistomakeacontributiontothegreatchallengesofthe21stcentury,whethertheybeissuesoffoodandhealth,landutilisationandthedevelopmentofurbanspaces,climatechangeandenergy,mobilityandinformation,orshortageofresourcesandsecurity.

6. Future perspectives for value creation in germany

|816.FutureperspectivesforvaluecreationinGermany

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6.1 Recommendations for innovation policy geared to value creation

Therecommendationsweredrawnupbymembersoftheworkinggroup“InnovationStrategiesGearedtoValueCreation”,supplement-edbyrepresentativesoftheBDI(seeappendix).Theyderivefromthedisruptionanalysesofthepresentstudyandarebasedonexistingproposals,forexamplethosefromacatechandtheFraunhoferGesellschaft.Aselectionof23recommendationsfollows.5Selectedpointsoffivequestionsofresearchpromotionwereaddressed.Therewasanawarenessthatoptimisationoftheuseofscarcepublicfundswasrequiredalongwithadeeperandquantitativeanalysis.

5 AllrecommendationsintheGermanfull-scaleversionunderwww.bdi.eu/publikationen_zukunftsstudie.htm

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Area of activity – mobility

National mobility strategyThepromotionofelectro-mobilityiscurrentlyenjoyingmaximumattention.Technicalissues,suchaspropulsionandstoragesystems,playanimportantpart.Inaddition,Germanyrequiresamulti-modalmobilitystrategytomaketransportfitforthefutureinthelongterm.Thisincludestheimprovementoftrafficflows,thereductionofresourceconsumption,increasingtheefficiencyofallmeansoftransportinordertocutnegativeenvironmentaleffects,betterlinkingofmeansoftransportandnotleastthemaintenanceofaffordablemobility.Thegoalsshouldbelaiddowninanationalmobilityindex,prioritisedandsubjectedtoongoingmonitoringintheirimplementa-tion.Forexample,theauthoritiesatmunicipalandregionallevelcouldsetoutcriteriaonthestatusquoofmobilityandinformwhatexactlytheywishtoachieveinfuture.Ultimatelycustomerdemandiscrucial,butthesustainabilityrequirementsmustbetakenintoconsideration.

Intelligent transport infrastructure and inter-modalityOptimisingthewholemobilitystructureistothebenefitofthepublic,industryandtheenvironment.ItshouldcontinuetobeanimportantgoalofGermantransportpolicy.Thedevelopmentofinformation,communicationandtrafficcontrolsystemsshouldthereforecontinuetobetheobjectofresearch.ThisappliesespeciallytoIT-assistedinterfacemanagementforseamlessmobilityfromdoortodoorcoveringalltransportmeansrequired.However,asyettherearenoadequatefindingsonhowtransportfeaturinginter-modalitywouldaffectthefinancingofinfrastructure.Apartfrompromotingresearchitwouldthereforebeexpedienttosupportpilotprojectsinthefieldofintermodaltransportsystems.Appropriatescenariosshouldbedevisedtoexploretheconditionsinwhichinter-modalitycanbefinanceableandcanpromisesuccess.


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Socio-ecological mobility researchInthemediumtermthebehaviouroftransportuserswillradicallychange.Inordertounderstandandanticipatetheseprocesses,thecontinuationofsocio-ecologicalmobilityresearchisrecommended.Thisincludesinparticularinvestigationsintomobilitybehaviour(inter-modalityandmulti-modality)andintotheattitudeofusersandofsocietytowardscertainmodesoftransport.

Aviation researchItistobeexpectedthattheboomincommercialaircraftwillcontinue,whilecompetitionbecomeskeeneratthesametime.InordertopreservealeadingpositionfortheGermanaviationindustryinthecommercialaircraftmarketthetargetedpromotionofresearchcontinuestobenecessary.Onemainemphasismustbeontheeco-efficiencyofaviation.Inthelongterm,thegrowthexpectedmustnotimposetooundueastrainontheenvironment.Flyingmustbecomecarbondioxideneutral,whichmeansnewconceptsforpropulsionsystems,lightweightconstructionandweightreduction,improvementinaerodynamicsetc.

Electro-mobility competenceDomesticcarsalesarestagnating.Incontrast,electro-mobilitycanprovidegrowthinaforeseeableterm.The“nationalelectro-mobilitydevelopmentplan”shouldbeusedtogainGermanyaleadinelectro-mobility.EstablishingGermanyinbatterycompetencebytargetedresearchpromotionwouldbeanecessaryapproachinordertoreducedependenceonothermanufacturingcountries.Otherissueswouldbethesubsidisingofinfrastructureforresearchandproductionplantalongwiththepromotionofcooperationbetweenbranchesofindustry.

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Climate and energy area of activity

Framework conditions for favourably priced and efficient energyAsecure,globallycompetitive,reasonablypricedandefficientenergysupplyisamustforeverynationaleconomy.Inordertoachievethisgoal,theremustbetheproperframework,bothnationallyandinternationally.Thisrequiresmajorexpenditureonresearchanddevelopment.Thismeansbothbasicandappliedresearchanddevelopment,forexampleinchemicalsandplantconstruction.Theremustalsobeanexpansionofintelligentelectricitygridswithadequatestoragecapacityandflexibledemandcontrol,alongwithariseinefficiencyonbothsides,inenergygenerationandconsumption.Thereisalsostillmajorpotentialinbuildings,ininsulationandheatingtechnology.

Uniform European energy strategyTheswitchtoadecentralisedenergysystemmainlysuppliedfromrenewablesourcestakesyearsandindeeddecades.AuniformEuropeanenergystrategyisnecessaryforthistransformationtosucceed.Legislationandotherrulesandregulationsmustbeharmo-nised,andtrans-Europegridinfrastructuremustbeexpanded.Varyingenergystrategies,suchasthoseofGermanyandFrance,shouldalsobeharmonised.Comparablecompetitiveconditionsshouldbebroughtaboutandthetotalcostofrevampingthesystemshouldbelimited.AtthesametimedialoguewithrelevantsocialgroupslikeNGOsshouldbesteppedup.Thelinkingupofenergysystemswillgivegreaterimportancetolocalinfrastructure.Thisshouldbeinacross-bordercontext.Regionalconsensusisjustasimportantforsuccessasinternationalcooperation.


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Energy conservation and recycling economyIncertainareasofindustry,suchassteelandnon-ferrousmetals,majorsavingsinmaterialsandenergyareconceivablethroughrecycling.Recyclingconceptsthuspromisemajorpotentialforvaluecreation.Bymeansoftargetedpromotion,itshouldbepossibletodeveloptechnologicalprocesseswhichacceleratestillfurthertheeconomiceffectivenessofrecyclingandtherecoveryofrawmaterials.

Power station and efficiency technologiesTheexploitationofrenewableenergiesprobablyoffersGermanysubstantialopportunitiesforexports,especiallyinpowerstationandefficiencytechnologies.Marketsofthefuturealsoincludenewstoragesystems,whichwillprovidedecisiveleverageforalong-termconver-sionofenergysystems.Germanenterprisesshouldsecureaccesstothegrowingmarketsingoodtime.Officialforeigntradepolicycanassisttheseendeavours,forexampleintappingsolarenergyinGreeceorNorthAfrica.

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Health and nutrition area of activity

Clinical research for personalised medicine.Inordertoadvancethebreakthroughofpersonalisedmedicine,notonlyincreasedbasicandtranslationalresearchisnecessarybutalsoanticipatoryclarificationprocessesregardingthequestionofcosts.Costreductionsthroughmoreefficientandtargetedtreatmentcancounteractcostincreases,suchasthosecausedbythedevelopmentofmedicinesforsmallergroupsofpatients.Herethehealthcarestrategyofstatutoryandprivatehealthinsuranceorganisationstakesonkeyimportance.Personalisedmedicinestillrequiresahighdegreeofsocialacceptancethroughforesightinpatientanddataprotectionaswellasthepromotionofhighsafetystandards.

Interdisciplinary research networksResearchpromotionshouldconcentratemorecloselyoninterdiscipli-naryresearchnetworksandclustersofexcellenceintheconvergencefieldsofagriculture,pharmaceuticals,nutrition,andlifesciences.Greatsignificancealsoaccruestobasicandappliedresearchwhichinvestigatesmorecloselythelinksbetweennutritionandlong-termphysicalandmentalhealth,especiallyinordertodojusticetothechallengesofanagingsociety.Thewholefieldofinitialandadvancedtrainingshouldbeonaninterdisciplinarybasisandalsoflexiblydevisedinordertoadapttochangingrequirements.

Preventative health care and translational researchInthehealthandnutritionsectortheaimmustbetoestablishnewmodelsofcollaborationbetweenindustry,scienceandsocietyinordertopromotetranslationalresearchandintegratedpreventativehealthcare.Moreover,independentandanticipatoryriskandacceptanceresearchmustbedevelopedforgreenbio-technology.Finally,itmustbeassumedthattheissueoffoodandnutritionwillcontinuetobemetwithextremesensitivityinpublicperceptions.


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Area of activity – communication

Promotion of information and communicationOpenstandardsandprotocolsarerecommendedforpromotionintheframeworkofthelinkingoftechnicalsystemsattheEuropeanandinternationallevel.Thepromotionofresearchactivitiesin“servicesciences”andopeninnovationapproachesisalsorecommendedalongwitheducationalcampaignsondataprotectionandtherespon-siblehandlingofinformationandknowledge.Thisisbackedupbyatransparentinformationpolicyguidedbytheincreasinginterlinkingbetweenthedigitalandthephysicalworldandbythedrawingupofclearguidelinesfortheprotectionofintellectualproperty,especiallywithaviewtothegrowing(virtual)integrationofinnovationprocesses.

Knowledge-based IT solutions and use potentialAtthecentreofdevelopmentsshouldbetheintensificationofre-searchintoissuesofknowledge-basedtechnicalsystemsandalsothe“InternetofThings”.Furtherusepotentialshouldbetappedbyscenariosandthemicro-simulationofpossibleapplications.Thisincludesarapidprototypeimplementation.Thesameappliestoanacceleratedtransferoftheresultsofresearchanddevelopmentintomarketableproductsandapplications.Newbusinessmodelsshouldbedevelopedwhichalsoactivelyincludecustomersinthedevisingofprocessesandservices,forexamplebymeansofcooperationwithinfluentialcustomercommunities.

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Area of activity – security

Handling of sensitive date and threatsGeneralawarenessforhandlingsensitivedataandthreatsshouldbesharpenedbylong-terminformationcampaigns.However,thesearenotcredibleaslongasthereareblatantbreaches,forexampleinhandlingpersonneldata.Thismustbeavoidedforgood.Thisrequiresconcertedeffortsfromscience,politics,industryandsocialinterestgroups.InbusinessenterprisesthereshouldbebetterinterlinkingbetweeninternalandexternalITexportsandsecurityspecialists.

Complexity of security questionsInscience,researchanddevelopmentnewmethodsofriskanalysismustbedeveloped.Theyshouldtakeheedofthegrowinglinkingbetweendiversesystemsandtheresultingcomplexityofsecurityissues.Thisisespeciallytrueofnew,globalinteraction.Finally,theremustbeendeavourstoimprovecooperationbetweensuppliersofsecuritysystems,inparticularinthedevelopmentofinternationalstandardsforsecuritymechanisms.


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Overall framework

Promotion of acceptance of technology in EuropeBusinesses,associationsandpoliticiansshoulddevelopinstrumentstodetectveryearlyonthosecurrentsinsocietyreactingtotechnologi-caldevelopments.Thiscanpermitareactiontotrendsandcriticaldebatessuchascanbeobservedinsocialnetworks.However,itisprobablyevenmoreimportanttodevelopproactivehightechsce-narios,thesocial,ecologicalandeconomicuseofwhichcanbeclearlycommunicated.Inthefieldofenergysupplythiscouldbethe“CO2neutralcity”.Inthecommunicationofscientificandtechnologi-calpotentialandthedescriptionoftheuseofrelevantsolutionsitisimperativetoinformthepublicandcustomersasearlyaspossibleandtoactivelyincludethem.Developingcommunicationformats“betweenequals”isprimarilyapoliticaltask.ThedevelopmentofapictureofthefuturebyGermanyandEurope,includingtechnologicaldimensions,isstronglyrecommended.

Counteracting lack of skilled labourVocationaltrainingandupgradingisacornerstoneofinnovationstrategiesgearedtovaluecreation.Whilenewmarketsareappearing,whetherinelectro-mobilityorinsecurity,newtrainingopportunitiesshouldbeprovidedfromtheoutsetbystateandprivatesuppliers.Onewayofalleviatingthelackofqualifiedstaffistoextendpeople’sworkinglife.EachyearlongerthatpeopleworkraisesvaluecreationinGermanyby3billioneuros.Inthelong-termtheGermangovernmentiscalledupontoeaseentrytothelabourmarketfurtherforhighlyqualifiedpersonnel.

Encouraging entrepreneurshipNottheleastimportantpartofthepackageofmeasuresforinnovationstrategiesgearedtovaluecreationisencouragingentrepreneurship.Officialpoliciesshouldeaseandfinanciallysupportnewbusinessset-ups.Intheirturn,businessenterprisesarecalledupontomotivatetheiremployeestospotmarketopportunitiesandtodevelopmentideasandbusinessmodels.

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Stabilising the global finance and monetary systemAgainstthebackgroundofaloomingglobaleconomiccrisis,thegovernmentshouldworkflatouttodevisemeansofsustainingthefinancialandmonetarysystem.Thecentralfunctionofthefinancialsystemwasandremainstofinancetherealeconomy–todayareturntothisismorenecessarythaneverbefore.The“systemicrelevance”ofindividualfinanceinstitutionsharbourspotentialforblackmail.Thismustbecounteractedbysuitablemeasures.Thisincludesthedemergingoffinancialinstitutions.Thefoundationsofaviablefinancialandmonetarysystemaremonetarystabilityandtheconsoli-dationofpublicfinances.

Strengthening security of supply of raw materialsThenationalrawmaterialsstrategyshouldbeextendedtocoverEurope.Topprioritycontinuestobefreetradeinrawmaterials.Inaddition,thereareotherwaysofaccessingrawmaterials.Theseincludepurchasingalliances(atnationalorenterpriselevel),theestablishmentofrawmaterialsfundsorpartnershipswithcountriesrichinrawmaterials(securingrawmaterialsinexchangefortransferoftechnologyandvaluecreation).Inordertoforestallbottlenecksinresources,know-howinminingtechnologymustbepreservedandextendedtorelatedtechnicalareas(urbanmining,deepwatermining).

Strengthening recycling technologiesThecradle-to-cradle(c2c)approachreliesonqualifiedpersonnel.Trainingandfurthertrainingtakesonspecialimportance,particularlyintheareasofmaterialstechnology,productdesignandchemicals.


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Complete internalisation of external costsTheinternalisingofexternalcostsandofexternalyieldsisessentialforinnovationstrategiesgearedtovaluecreation.Oneclassicinstrumentforinternalisingexternalyieldsisstatepromotionofresearch.Ininternalisingexternalcostsexperienceshowsthatregulationbyofficialpolicyismoreeffectivethanvoluntarycommitmentsbyindustry.Inordertoavoiddistortionsofcompetition,regulationshouldbeaccom-paniedbyinternationalagreements.Ifthatshouldnotprovepossible,onefeasiblemeanswouldbetoimposetariffsongoodsimportedfromcountriesinwhichexternaleffectsarenotpricedin.WTOrulesshouldalsotakeaccountofthis.Externaleffectsshouldbeimplementedwithinatimeschedulethatisbothambitiousandeconomicallysensible.Thiscouldminimisetheeconomicdislocations.

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6.2 Recommendations for innovation culture geared to value creation

Promotion of inter-sectoral cooperationAstheleadingorganisationofGermanindustry,theFederationofGermanIndustries(BDI)shouldperceivethedissolutionofclassicboundariesbetweenbranchesofindustryasanopportunity.Changewillcomeinanycaseandshouldthereforebeanticipatedandshapedintheinterestsofindustrialenterprises.Asapartnerforinnovationandvaluecreation,theBDIshouldparticipateindevisingnewpatternsofvaluecreation.

Itisthereforerecommendedthataworkinggroup“Inter-sectoralcooperationandnewpatternsofvaluecreation”shouldbefoundedwithintheBDI.Aclearassignmentshouldbeformulatedwithadefinitetimeschedule:openquestionsofsignificanceinthisfieldwillbediscussedandinvestigated;solutionsgearedtopracticewillbeframed.Importantissuesinthisareaaretheopportunitiesforandlimitstocooperation,thedesignoflegallybindingpartnershipmodels,theimportanceofintellectualproperty,thedevelopmentofprojecteconomystructuresandgloballyintegratedvaluecreationmodels.

Restrictionsaretobeanalysedandproposalsdevisedforovercomingthem.Throughouttheresultsshouldhavetheeffectofguidingactionandofhelpingenterprisesintheirimplementation.

New partnerships and forms of participationInnovationpolicygearedtovaluecreationrequirespartners.Uptonowthemainpointofcontacthasbeenthepoliticians.Itwillcontinuetobetheirtasktocreateinfrastructureandtheoverallframeworkandtoallocatethenecessaryfinancialresources.Politiciansarerecom-mendedtoactbeyondthehightechstrategyandtoinstitutionalisetheinterdepartmentalcoordinationandinterlinkingofareasofpolicy(family,education,integration,researchanddevelopmentpolicy)withrelevantactivitiesbyparliamentinthefieldofinnovationpromotion(forexamplethecommissionofenquiryortheofficefortechnologyimpactassessment).


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Fundamentalgoalsofinnovationpolicyshouldbediscussedanddeterminedinpublicdebate.Theworkintheexistingbodiesonresearch,technologyandinnovationpolicy(fromtheIndustry-ScienceResearchUnion6totheHigh-TechStrategyforGermanyoftheFederalgovernmenttothenationalplatformelectro-mobility)shouldbeopenedupforallplayersinsocietythroughpanelsforcontinuousdialogue.

Inthisconnectionrepresentativeformsofpoliticscouldbesupple-mentedbyconsultativeandplebiscite-typeelements.ExperiencessuchasweremadeinthegovernmentethicscommissionortheroundtableovertheStuttgart21railwayprojectcouldmakeacontribution.Suchactivitiesrequiresocialacceptance.Theyshouldbedesignedforthelongterm,independentlyofthelifetimeofasingleparliament.

Shaping by participationTheBDIshouldsendaclearpublicmessageforinnovationandvaluecreationinGermany.Itistobefocusedonatechnology-orientedprojectforthefuturewhichtheFederationselectswithitspartners.ItisrecommendedthatitbelinkedtotheIndustry-ScienceResearchUnion6.

Inthiswayaprojectcouldbecreatedsecuringnewwaysofparticipa-tioninanintegratedinnovationstrategy,atrainingfacilityinwhichfinancingquestions,administrativeproceduresandnewincentivesystemscanbetested.Web-baseddialoguesshouldaccompanytheproject.

Theexperiencegainedbenefitsallthoseparticipating:enterprises,researchinstitutes,cities,chambers,citizens’actiongroups,consum-erassociations,thepublicandthepoliticians.ItwouldbeaninvitationtoanewcultureofinnovationinGermany.

6 AconsultingcommitteetotheFederalMinisterofEducationandResearch

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Orientation as precondition for rational policy makingInnovationpolicyissocialpolicy.InajointinitiativethefederalgovernmentandtheBDIshouldkickstartabroadlybasedprocesstodevelopmodels,scenariosforaGermany2030thatisfitforthefuture.

Whilethescenarioswerebeingdevelopeditwouldalreadybecomeclearwhatobstacleshavetobeovercome,whatcompromiseshavetobemade,andaboveall,whatopportunitieswouldarisetosecurevaluecreationinGermanyonasustainablebasis.Theresultsshouldbeusedtoidentifynewclustersofvaluecreation.Inturn,recommen-dationscouldemergewhichservetoframegoalsforresearchandinnovationpolicyinordertotapmarketsofthefuture.

Themodelscenariosserveasanentrytoalong-termlearningprocess.Itwouldbeasuccessiftheissuesofinnovationandvaluecreationinalltheircomplexityweretomoveclosertothecentreofattention.Themodelscenariosshouldnaturallyserveasorientationforthoseinindustryandpolitics.

Foresight as a condition for changeGermanenterprisesareoftencommittedtoaculturefeaturingengineeringandtechnology.Thesecompaniesinparticularwoulddowelltofocusmoreontheircustomersandtheirrequirementswhendevelopingproductsandservices.Political,socialandculturaldevelopmentsarenamelydecisiveforunderstandingfuturemarkets.AgainstthisbackgroundtheBDIisrecommendedtosupportenter-prisesandassociationsincreatinganindependentforesightcompe-tence.Thisappliesespeciallytoresearchanddevelopment.

Focusingontheinterestsofthecustomerissomethingforwhichawealthofexperienceisalreadyinplacewhichcanbeexploited.Thereisresearchintotechnologyandrisk.Thereisalsoanexchangeofexperiencesbetweencompanieswithcorporateforesightactivities.Theareasofpolicy-makingandadministrationalsoneedtobuildupforesightcompetence.Therearealreadysomebeginningsinthefieldofregionalforesight.Itisrecommendedthattheybefurtherexpanded.

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Innovative power of social consensusAninnovationstrategybasedonvaluecreationdependscruciallyonwhethersocietyacceptsthesolutionsthatareaspiredto.Acceptancedoesnotfallfromtheskies.Itrestsonexperienceandthereforehastobeconvincinglyimparted.Itistheresultoftheinteractionofvariousgroupsandtheirdemands.Therespectivepositionsshouldbemadetransparentandadvantagesopenlyaddressed.Thepublicdoesnotlikethefeelingthattheyarebeingmadeuseofinamannercountertotheirowninterests.

ThestatusquointheframingofgoalsinresearchandinnovationpolicyinGermanyrevealsanasymmetricpicture.Traditionallythefocusesaredecidedbyindustry,scienceandpolicymakers,basedonexpertopinionsandeconomicallydetermined.Ontheotherhand,therearesocialissuesaffectinghumanexistenceandhowpeoplelivetogether.Asscienceprogresses,theseissuestakeonaddedimpor-tancewhennewtechnologiesaffectbasicquestionsofhumanexistence,suchasinnanotechnology,biotechnology,geneticengi-neeringandinformationandcommunicationsciences.

Althoughbothsidesbelongtogether,thedebateoftentakesplaceinseparateforums,notleastforreasonsoftime.Itisthereforerecom-mendedthatfundamentaldecisionsoninnovationstrategybediscussedatanearlystageandkeypointsbeidentifiedforasocialconsensusthatisasbroadaspossible.Thepriorconditionsmustbecreatedbythoseinpolitics,scienceandindustry.Theseincludenewparticipationproceduresandamuchimprovedcommunicationofsciencewiththehelpofeducationalinstitutionsandmedia.

6.FutureperspectivesforvaluecreationinGermany

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Innovation with cultureGermansarenothostiletoinnovation.Thisisdemonstratedbythespreadoftheinternetandmobileenddeviceswithouttherehavingbeenaneedforadiscussiononacceptance.Thiswasbecausetheculturalandeconomicadvantageswereobvious.Inthiswaywork,communicationandinteractionwererevolutionisedinashortspaceoftime.Innovationthatistoachievelastingsuccessrequiresacertaincultureanditispreciselythisthatneedstobedeveloped.

Theformationofaninnovationcultureisalong-termprocessandtheplayersinitareassigneddifferentroles.Thepoliticianscreatetheoverallframework,thescientistsfaceuptodiscussionsandthebusinesscommunityopensupanddevelopsuser-friendlysolutions.

Itisrecommendedthatinfutureallgoalsandprogrammesofinnova-tionpolicyshouldmakeaclearcontributiontofosteringacultureofinnovation.Thecorrespondingindicatorsshouldbedevelopedandmaintainedonapracticalbasis.Thecriteriaincludetransparency,participation,needanduserorientation,newpatternsofcompetition,reliableframeworkconditionsandtheabilitytolearninprojects.

Growth, prosperity and sustainabilityTheissueofsustainabilityhaslongsinceprogressedbeyondthesphereofenvironmentalpolicy.Ithasnowbecomeacentralcompo-nentofresearchandtechnologypolicyandatthesametimeataskforalldepartments.Thissuccesscanonlybeexplainedbythefactthattheplayersconcernedalllinkthetopicwithanalternativelogicofeconomicoperationswhichpromisestoguaranteelivelihoods.Whethertheclassicgrowthparameterscomprehensivelyrepresentthegoodofsocietyiscalledintoquestion.Thesettingupofthecommissionofenquiry“Growth,prosperity,qualityoflife–waystosustainableeconomicactivityandsocialprogressinthesocialmarketeconomy”shouldbeseenagainstthisbackground.

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Sofarthecompositionofthecommissionofinquiryrevealscleardistancingfrommembersofthebusinesscommunity.ThefederalgovernmentisthereforerecommendedtoincluderepresentativesofbusinessandtheBDIintheworkofthecommission.TheBDIisrecommendedtodrawupitsownproposalsonthequestionwhetherahighlydevelopedsocietylikeGermanycanmeasureitssuccesssimplybyquantitativegrowthparametersalone.Thethreedimensionsofsustainability–economy,ecology,society–areindispensable.

Sustainability as a success factorManyenterprisesachievesubstantialgrowthratesingreenmarkets.Theshareofvaluecreationandthenumberofjobsinthisareaaresteadilyincreasing.Nevertheless,inmanyenterprisessustainabilityhassofarbeenunderstoodasasupplementarytask.

Itisrecommendedthatenterprisesshouldcomprehensivelyintegrateandimplementsustainabilityintheirinnovationandstrategyproc-esses.Examplesofhowthiscanbedoneareclearself-setobjectivesandmonitoringimplementationbyindicators(keysustainabilityperformanceindicators).

Sustainablefuturemarketsofrestrictedtotheareasofenergyandmobility.Infacttheyextendtoallareasofindustrialproduction.Anintegratedandholisticviewisthekeytoeconomicadvantages.Whatispositiveisthatwithsustainableproductsandsolutionsthequestionofacceptancedoesnotarise.

6.FutureperspectivesforvaluecreationinGermany

Technology development and viability for the futureGlobalmegatrendsshapethemarketsofthe21stcentury:demo-graphicchange,urbanisation,scarcityofresourcesandclimatechange.Theanswer,ifthereisone,tosuchcomplexissuesliesinsystemssolutions.Sotechnologicalcompetencecontinuestobedemanded,competitionininnovationandqualitybecomesmoreimportant.CompetitionthroughpriceundercuttingisnotapromisingstrategyforGermanyinanycasesinceinmanycasesitwouldmeanalossinvaluecreationandincome.Onthewhole,conditionsforGermanindustrytocontinueonasuccessfulpathofgrowthremaingood.

However,intheemergingcountriesseriouscompetitioninthefieldofscienceandtechnologyisgainingstrength.

Furthermore,radicaltechnologicalchangeisconfrontingclassicmanufacturingindustrywithnewchallenges.Theresponseliesinflexibleframeworkconditionsintheareasofeducation,thelabourmarketandmobility.However,thataloneisnotsufficient.Germanymustretainitsabilitytodevelopcentralfuturetechnologies,toconvertthemintosolutionstailoredtomeetneedsandtomakethemmarket-ablebyaccompanyingservicesandbusinessmodels.

Acentralroleinallareasoftechnologicalprogressisplayedbytheprocessingofinformationandknowledge.Italsohelpstheintegrationofvariouscomponentsintothesystemssolutionsalreadymentioned.Personalisedmedicineorthe“InternetofThings”areexamples.Thedemandsmadeonthemanagementofcomplexityincreasesubstan-tially.Itisthereforerecommendedthatinscienceandpolicy-makingthereshouldbeastrongeremphasisonsystemsinnovationsasthesubjectofinterdisciplinaryresearchpromotion,withthefocusonaholisticinnovationapproach.

100list of all figures

Page FIgure

11 Fig1:Valuecreationandemploymenteffects

12 Fig2:Projectdesign

15 Fig3:Disruptionanalysis

17 Fig4:DisruptionsandtheirimpactonvaluecreationinGermany

19 Fig5:Currenttrendsinvaluecreation

27 Fig6:Listofdisruptions

29 Fig7:Disruptionsinthemobilityareaofactivity

39 Fig8:Disruptionsintheclimateandenergyareaofactivity

45 Fig9:Disruptionsinthehealthandnutritionareaofactivity

53 Fig10:Disruptionsinthecommunicationsareaofactivity

61 Fig11:Disruptionsinthesecurityareaofactivity

65 Fig12:Disruptionsintheareaofsuper-ordinateframeworkconditions

|101Listofallfigures 100

legend

+ Positiveeffectsonemploymentorvaluecreation

- Negativeeffectsonemploymentorvaluecreation

+/- Initialpositivethennegativeeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancepracticallycanceleachotherout

-/+ Initialnegativethenpositiveeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancepracticallycanceleachotherout

+/(-) Initialpositivethennegativeeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearepositive

(+)/- Initialpositivethennegativeeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearenegative

-/(+) Initialnegativethenpositiveeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearenegative

(-)/+ Initialnegativethenpositiveeffectstobeexpectedwhichon balancearepositive

102glossary

Thoseactingsociallyaredescribedasactors.Thereisadistinctionbetweenindividualactors(persons)andcollectiveactors(organisa-tions,enterprises,states).Theyhaveincommonthattheycanbecontacted,i.e.areavailableforcommunication.Relevanteconomicactorsaredescribedasstakeholders.

Inbusinessstudiestheconceptofthestrategicactorisusedinconnectionwiththemodellingofbusinessprocesses.Thetaskistoexplorewhichactorhasaninfluenceonabusinessproject.

SchreyöggG.(1999):StrategischesManagement–Entwicklungs-tendenzenundZukunftsperspektiven.In:DieUnternehmung.Jg.53(1999)Heft6

Clusteringmeansthegroupingorjoiningoffeaturesand/orvariablesonaccountofsimilarity

Raithel(2008):QuantitativeForschung:EinPraxiskurs.Wiesbaden

Changesoftenhaveadisruptivecharacter.Theimpactofdisruptionsisconsiderable.Disruptionsresultfrombreaksintrendsorfromplausibleprolongationsofexistingtrends–bothwithprofoundeffectsonthestructureofvaluecreationinGermany.Externalshockscanalsoimpactaswellasarrivalattippingpoints.Inthebusinessworldweoftenexperiencesuchbreaksintheformofnon-lineardevelop-ments.Whetherdisruptionswillactuallyoccurisnotcertain.However,iftheyaretakenseriously,theyopeneyesforpossiblefundamentalsocialupheavalswithfar-reachingconsequencesforvaluecreation.Thisgivesrisetoopportunitiesandrisks.

Actor

Clustering

Disruption

|103Glossary 102

Theoverallconceptofforesightmeansanextensivesetofmethodsandanalyticalinstrumentsofresearchintothefuture.Aknowledge-basedandinterdisciplinaryprocedureiscommontothemall.Thelengthoftimewithwhichforesightconcernsitselfwithcanrangefromafewyearstoseveraldecades.Thevarietyofperspectivesmakesforesightespeciallyrelevantforcorporatestrategyplanning.

Burmeister,K./Neef,A./Beyers,B.(2004):CorporateForesight.UnternehmengestaltenZukunft.Hamburg.

Afeaturethatpointstoasuper-ordinatedevelopment.

Inempiricalresearchanindicatordescribesalimitedsampletakenfromaquantityofempiricallyverifiabledatawiththehelpofwhichgeneralisingstatementscanbemade.Inindustryindicatorsareunderstoodaspointerstothedevelopmentoftheeconomyortheeconomicsituationingeneral.Example:fallingpurchasingpowerasanindicatorofaneconomiccrisis.

Koch,J.(2004):Marktforschung.(4thimpression).Munich

Informatisationisaprocessofgeneratingandusinginformationinordertobeabletoproducefurtherinformation.Theessenceofinformatisationliesintranslatinginformationintoamaterialobjectofcooperativehumanactivity,forexampleintoavehicle.Theconceptismostlyusedwithamorespecialmeaning:thepenetrationofalllifeareasofsocietybyinformationandcommunicationstechnology,especiallythecomputerandtheinternet.

Foresight (a look into the future)

Indicator

Informatisation

104

Thepracticalapplicationofanideatosolveproblemsisdescribedasinnovation.Inindustrythereisadistinctionbetweenthreebasicforms:themanufactureofnewproductsorproductswithclearlyimprovedproperties(productinnovation),achangeinproceduresformakingaproduct(productionorprocessinnovation),andanewwayoforganisingproductionandsales(organisationalinnovation).Innovationscanmeetwithsuccessinthemarketbutcanalsobefailures.

Corporateidentitydescribesalong-term,strategicframingofcorpo-rateobjectivesanddefineshowthegoalsaretobemet.Asapartofcorporateidentitytheenterpriseassessmentmostlyaimsatachievingaconsensusonvaluesbetweenthemanagementandemployees,atstrengtheningthefeelingoftogethernessandalsoprovidingpractica-bleandconsensualrulesincaseofcrisis.

Corporateidentityassessmentseekstodevelopmentacorrespondingcorporatemodelthatisviableforthefutureandtoadjustittospecificneeds.

KiesslingW./BabelF.(2007):CorporateIdentity–Strategienach-haltigerUnternehmingsführung.(3rdimpression).Augsburg

Modellingaimsata(simplified)imageofrealityinordertocaptureessentialmodesofactionandthecausalityofrealprocesses.Model-lingisdistinguishedfromsimulationinthatitremainsofapurelytheoretical/hypotheticalnatureandisnotreproducedexperimentally/virtually.Economicmodelsdescribepresuppositions(apriori)ofeconomicstructuresandprocesses,suchastheinfluenceofindi-vidualbehaviouronmarketdevelopments.

Kirchgässer,G.(2008):Homooeconomicus:DasökonomischeModellindividuellenVerhaltensundsineAnwendungindenWirt-schafts-undSozialwissenschaften.Tübingen

Innovation

Corporate identity

Modelling

|105104Glossary

Non-governmentorganisation

Generalpatternsinthechangeinvaluecreationseenfromanoverallperspectivetranscendingindividualbranchesofindustryorenter-prises.Theseincludeatrendtothedissolutionofseparatebranches,sustainableinnovationasaleverofvaluecreationandanecessityforcontrollingcomplexity.Ingeneraltheparadigmshiftsinvaluecreationdemonstratethatcircumstancesdonotbecomesimplerbutmorecomplicated.Volatilityincreases.

Adefiningpropertyorfeature.Aparametercanbeadefinedvariablewhichhelpstoidentifyanddescribeprocessesanddevelopments.Expandeddefinitionsdescribeparameterpropertieswhicharesituatedoutsidetheobjectunderobservation,whichiswhythetermcanbeusedsynonymouslywithinfluencingfactor.

Bossel,H.(2004)Systeme,Dynamik,Simulation:Modellbildung,Analyse,undSimulationkomplexerSysteme.Norderstedt

Thistermoriginatingfromthefinancialsectordescribesthesumofproducts,servicesandbrandssuppliedbyabusinessenterprise.Instrategicmanagementportfolioservesasananalysiscriterionfordeterminingthemarketpositionofanenterprise.Thegoalinthecreationofasuitableportfolioisthebalancebetweendiversityandconcentrationoncorecompetences.

Jung,H.(2006):AllgemeineBetriebswirtschaftslehre(10thimpres-sion).Munich

NGO

Paradigm shift in value creation

Parameter

Portfolio

106

Trendorcomplexoftrendsthatdeterminesorcharacterisesafieldanditsfuturedevelopment.Itisofnoaccountwhetherthekeyfactordeterminesthefieldasacause(e.g.asexternalinfluencingfactors)orwhetheritdescribesitscentraleffects.Theconceptofthekeyfactorisanattempttomakeasassessmentorjudgementfromamongthevarietyofinfluencingfactors(trendsandalsoactionoptionsofimportantactors)inordertoreducethecomplexityoftheproblemtoamanageablelevel.

Weaksignalsisatermfordevelopmentsortrendswhichappearonlyslightatthetimetheyarediscoveredbutwhichhavethepotentialtobecomekeyfactorsinthefutureoforganisationandenterprises.Consequently,weaksignalsharbourthedangerthattheycaneasilybeoverlookedorunderestimated.Forexample,atthestartoftheinternetagemanyinthebusinesscommunityconsideredwwwtobeatemporarytechnologicalgimmickofnoeconomicimportance.

Röttger,U.(2001):IssuesManagement.In:Nolting,T./Thießen,A.(ed.):KrisenmanagementinderMediengesellschaft.Wiesbaden.

Stakeholdersaregroupswithvestedinterestswhohaveadirectorindirectconnectionwithanenterpriseorventure.Incontrasttotheshareholderapproachwhichconcentratesontheinterestsofthoseholdingequity,thestakeholderapproachaimsatabalancebetweentheinterestsofvariousrelevantstatusgroups.Theseincludeinternalstakeholders(staff,managers,proprietors)andexternalstakeholders(customers,suppliers,investors,state,society).

Ulrich,P.(1999):WasistguteUnternehmensführung?ZurnormativeDimensionderShareholder-Stakeholder-Debatte.In:Kumar,B.N./Osterloh,M./SchreyöggG.(ed.):UnternehmensethikunddieTransformationdesWettbewerbes:Shareholder-Value–Globalisierung–Hyperwettbewerb,Suttgart.

Key factor

Weak signal

Stakeholder

|107106Glossary

Targetedandplannedthoughtandactionbasedonthelongterm.Strategiesaimtostabiliseexpectationsinviewofanunknownfuture.Strategiesenableorfacilitatedecisionsinuncertainconditions.Thetermoriginatesfromthemilitarysphereandiscloselyrelatedtotheterm‘tactics’.Inindustrystrategyisunderstoodasmeaningfulsequencingoftheoperationsofanenterprisewiththeaimofsecuringalastingcompetitiveadvantage.

Lühmann,N.(2006):OrganisationundEntscheidung.Wiesbaden

PorterM.E.(1999):WettbewerbundStrategie.FrankfurtamMain.

Scenariosareconsistentandplausiblealternativeimagesofthefuture.Incontrasttoforecasts,scenariosarehypothetical.Itisuncertainwhichofthepossibilities,whichdetailedaspectsofthescenarioswillactuallyoccur.Takentogether,scenariosillustratethemostsignificantdrivingforceswhichfuturedevelopmentsdependon,provideanoverviewoflinkedeffectsanddescribepossibleconse-quences.

Thetermdescribesagradual,sustainedandgenerallycontinuousdevelopment–incontrasttocyclicalswings,erraticfluctuationsorthearrivalofsomethingessentiallynew.Trendscanbedistinguishedfromshort-termfashionsbyhavingasustainedeffectoverseveralyears.Moreover,theyarerobust,donotchangeabruptlyandcontinueinthesamedirection.Trendshaveacorrespondinglastingeffectonconcretelivingconditionsandthusfulfiltheconditionstobetakenasapointofapproachforthestrategicplanningofenterprises.

Müllert,A./Müller-StewensG.(2009):StrategicForesight:Trend-undZukunftsforschunginUntenehmen–Instrumente,Prozesse,Fallstu-dien.Stuttgart.

Strategy

Scenarios

Trend

Cycleisatermforthetemporary,periodicdeclineandincreaseincertainobservablephenomena.Cyclesaremarkedbyregularity,demonstratecontinuityandarethussuitableformakingforecasts.Oneexampleoftheapplicationofcyclicalthinkinginthefieldofeconomicsareso-calledeconomiccycles,whichproceedsontheassumptionthateconomicperformancerunsincyclesdependingonparadigmsandtechnologicaldevelopments,wherebylongerandshortercyclesoverlap.

Raudenbush(2005):HowDoWeStudyWhatHappensnext.Thou-sandOaks/Chicago.

Cycles

Imprint 110

Published by BDI–FederationofGermanIndustrieswww.BDI.eu

Z_punktGmbHTheForesightCompanywww.z-punkt.de

Project teamBDI working group Innovation Strategies Geared to Value Creation

DirectorDr.ReinholdAchatz(SiemensAG)

Members of working groupDr.StefanBerndes(BDLIe.V.)Dr.ArnevonBonin(BayerAG)Dr.KlausEbert(BoehringerIngelheimGmbH)Dr.KlausGriesar(MerckKGaA)Dr.ChristianHahner(DaimlerAG)AndreKaffenberger(SüdzuckerAG)Dr.JochenKölzer(SiemensAG)Dr.VolkerMeyer-Guckel(StifterverbandfürdieDeutscheWissenschafte.V.)Dr.MarkusMüller-Neumann(BASFSE)WolfgangMüller-Pietralla(VolkswagenAG)Dr.DianeRobers(PwCAG)Dr.FriedrichSchulte(RWEAG)Dr.TjarkSiefkes(BombardierTransportationGmbH)Dr.JohannesStuhlberger(EADSDeutschlandGmbH)StephanZiegler(BITKOMe.V.)

Editorial team mobilityDr.StefanBerndes(BDLIe.V.)Dr.ChristianHahner(DaimlerAG)WolfgangMüller-Pietralla(VolkswagenAG)Dr.TjarkSiefkes(BombardierTransportationGmbH)

Editorial team climate and energyDr.KlausGriesar(MerckKGaA)Dr.MarkusMüller-Neumann(BASFSE)Dr.FriedrichSchulte(RWEAG)

Editorial team health and nutritionDr.ArnevonBonin(BayerAG)Dr.KlausEbert(BoehringerIngelheimGmbH)AndreKaffenberger(SüdzuckerAG)Dr.Dr.ReinhardLöser(BDIe.V.)CoraOrlamünder(BDIe.V.)

Editorial team communicationsDr.JochenKölzer(SiemensAG)Dr.MichaelLittger(BDIe.V.)Prof.Dr.HartmutRaffler(SiemensAG)StephanZiegler(BITKOMe.V.)

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Editorial team securityRichardArning(EADSDeutschlandGmbH)FelixEsser(BDIe.V.)Dr.JochenKölzer(SiemensAG)Dr.JohannesStuhlberger(EADSDeutchlandGmbH)Dr.MilosSvoboda(SiemensAG)

Editorial team super-ordinate framework conditionsDr.VolkerMeyer-Guckel(StifterverbandfürdieDeutscheWissenschafte.V.)Dr.DianeRobers(PwCAG)

Project team BDIDr.HeinrichHöferDr.CarstenWehmeyer

Project team Z_punkt GmbHThe Foresight Company KlausBurmeisterHolgerGlocknerDr.KlausHeinzelbeckerKaiJannekCorneliusPatschaSivertvonSaldernMariaSchnurrDr.KarlheinzSteinmüllerBertBeyers

Editorial staff of studyDr.ReinholdAchatzBertBeyersKlausBurmeisterHolgerGlocknerDr.HeinrichHöferDr.CarstenWehmeyer

FundingBASFSEBayerAGBoehringerIngelheimGmbHBombardierTransportationGmbHBoschGmbHDaimlerAGEADSFranceMerckKGaAPwCAGRWEAGSiemensAGStifterverbandfürdieDeutscheWissenschafte.V.VereinderZuckerwirtschafte.V.VolkswagenAG

DesigngroßgestaltenKommunikationsdesign

BerlinNovember2011

BDI-DrucksacheNo.459Downloadunder:www.bdi.eu/publikationen_zukunftsstudie_engl.htm

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