ggpatel presentation pipoc 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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ConsumerTrendInIndia
WithReference
To
Palm
Oil
By
Govindbhai G.
PatelManagingPartner
G.G.Patel&NikhilResearchCompany
At
PIPOC2011
KualaLumpur
on16th November,
2011
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INDIANDEMOGRAPHICS
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Secondmostpopulousnation
1.231Bn people
Largestdemocracy
Countrywithmaximumyoungpeople
Medianage
24.4
years
In 2025, more than 55 per cent of the population of India
would be of working age.
Amongstthefastestgrowingeconomics
Fourthlargesteconomy,poisedtobeNo.2or3innext10years
WhatPeopleTalkAboutIndia
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India a fast growing significant economy in spite of global
slowdown
StrongMacroeconomicfundamentals
GDPValue:OverUS$1.3Trillion(Tn)
PurchasingPowerParity(PPP):US$5Tn
Forex Reserve:US$298Bn.andgrowing
HouseholdSavingsRate(200910):32.5%(worldshighest)
AverageGDP
Growth
Rate
(last
5years):
8.4%
IndianMacroeconomicOverview
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GROWTHSTORY
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GrowthEnablers
Consumer expenditure on Food, Beverage & Tobacco in India iscurrently US$ 375.3 bil lion in 2010 and it is expected to go upto US$588 bill ion in 2015.
India Retail market is US$ 450 billion currently, which is 3rd largestin Asia in terms of sale.
The total retail sale is expected to double in the next 5 years.
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DemanddriversofedibleoilinIndia
ConsistentGDPgrowthforecastofmorethan8%.
A
big
expansion
in
the
Indian
middle
class,
due
to
a
big
rise
inincomelevelsofthepoorclass.
The double digit growth of out of home consumption of
edibleoil.
Per capita consumption of Edible oils in India at 12.8 kg is
still a lot below threshold level of consumption. Low
consuming
states
of
central
and
East
India
at
810
kg
will
catchupwiththeirpeersofWest&NorthIndiaat15/17kg.
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Evenwithamoderatepopulationgrowth theabsolute
increaseinnumberofpeopleisquietHigh.
Schemes like NREGA and rising labor income is
increasing the income level of people who are
consumingmuchbelowtheallIndialevel.
RisingUrbanpopulation&manymore.
Hence
India
will
be
a
promising
consumer
marketwithahighgrowthinconsumption.
DemanddriversofedibleoilinIndia
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ImportStatistics
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Imports
of
last
10
years
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Year
QtyInmlT
Edible Palm Oil
Soya Oil
Sun Oil
Others Edi.Oils
TOTAL
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MAJOREDIBLEOILSYEARLYCONSUMPTION
So even after increase in absolute quantity of consumption of Palmoil, the share of Palm oil is also increasing.
Year
GN SBO RAPE SUN CSO PALM OTHER TOTAL
% % % % % % %Qty in
ml T%
2001/02 12.0% 22.3% 17.0% 3.0% 4.3% 29.0% 12.1% 10.1 100%
2002/03 7.4% 19.1% 12.3% 5.2% 4.2% 39.4% 12.1% 9.6
100%2003/04 8.6% 18.0% 16.5% 4.7% 4.8% 33.3% 13.8% 10.3 100%
2004/05 7.9% 26.1% 12.5% 4.0% 6.0% 28.2% 14.8% 10.9 100%
2005/06 7.0% 24.9% 19.6% 5.11% 6.6% 22.7% 13.8% 11.4 100%
2006/07 5.0% 22.4% 17.6% 5.7% 7.8% 26.9% 14.4% 11.8
100%
2007/08 5.5% 17.5% 14.6% 4.3% 8.6% 35.8% 13.4% 12.4 100%
2008/09 4.2% 15.0% 11.4% 6.0% 6.8% 45.4% 10.9% 14.1 100%
2009/10 2.6% 19.0% 11.4% 6.4% 7.7% 42.8% 9.8% 14.8 100%
2010/11 3.1% 16.5% 14.4% 6.4% 6.9% 42.8% 9.5% 15.7 100%
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There is an increase in per capita consumption of edible
oilsandthedomesticproductionofoilsisnotabletocope
atthesamepace.
The per capita consumption is increasing as the country
hasconsistentlygrownby8%orabove in last10yrs,the
incomelevel
of
people
have
risen
and
there
is
ageneral
environmentofoptimismandincreasedspending.
Zero import duty on crude edible oil and very nominal
duty
on
refined
oils
have
favoured the
import
over
domestic oils at the expenses of Indian oilseeds farmers
andcrushers.
Whyhastheimportofedibleoilsincreased ?
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Govt. schemes like midday meals, subsidized oil supply to
belowpovertylinefamiliesboostedthedemandforedibleoils.
Majorlypalmisusedinit.
Also Govt. schemes like NREGA (national rural employment
guarantee) also has lead to employment to unemployed and
improvedtheincomelevelsofthebottomofthepyramid.
Highpriceelasticity lowerpricehasboostedthedemandand
consumption.
Whyhastheimportofedibleoilsincreased ?
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DemandSideofIndian
Market
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Characteristics of different oils consumed in India
Groundnut Oil
Once upon a time the most preferred oil but now is slowly dying out due tohigh prices and low availability. The demand of Groundnut Kernel isphenomenally growing, hence creating a scarcity of available seed forcrushing.
Rapeseed / Mustard Oil
Mustard oil is Kachi Ghani oil with strong Pungent taste. The biggest marketsfor this oi l is east India followed by North India.
Cottonseed Oil
This oil has a largest consumption in Gujarat and surrounding areas. Thefrying quality of this oil is also good and so is preferred by local Snackmanufacturers. The production of this oil is scattered all over the country.
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Characteristics of different oils consumed in India
Sunflower OilSunflower oil preferred by the affluent class of south and west India. South isa big market for this oil. This oil has the highest percentage increase inconsumption though the absolute numbers may not be very big. This oil may
increase and capture a big share of the growing affluent class of India andmay replace some oils specially Groundnut oil .
Soybean Oil
Refined Soybean oil is the oil preferred by the middle and the upper middleclass. This is the oil which has the highest sale in the consumer packs.
Palm Oil
The highest selling oil in the country. This oil is gaining big popularity in theout of Home (HORECA) segment. This is the preferred oil in South India andcoastal East India. As it is generally cost effective this has become thecommon mans oil . Government supplies are also of Palm Oil.
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Type of Oil
Current Core Demand
( Non-switchable Demand)(Monthly estimate in Thousand T)
GroundnutOil 35 45
MustardOil 140 160
CottonSeed
Oil
55
65
SunflowerOil 7585
SoybeanOil 180 200
PalmOil 380 420
OtherOils 75 85
AverageSwitchable
Demand 350
India is a very price sensitive market and a good quantity ofconsumption switches to the cheapest oil available.
Though the consumption of palm is nearly 6.75 million tons butthe core demand for the oil is st ill around 4.60 to 5 mill ion tons.So palm is catering to this big switchable demand of India.
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SeasonPatternofPalmOilConsumption
Summers Highest
consumption
SummersarefromMarchtoJune,thehightemperaturesarehigh(35
to45degreeCelsius)andsoPalmdoesnotbecomehazy.
Monsoons ReasonablyHigh
It
is
from
July
to
October,
the
high
temperatures
are
between
(30
to
40
degreeCelsius),stilltemperaturesfavour Palm.
Winters Lowconsumption
The high temperature are between 1530 and low are from 5 to 15
degree Celsius. The low temperatures specially in North and Central
India make Palm hazy and semi solid, this discourages usage. For
Indiansoilhastobeinliquidform.
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QuarterwiseImport
Generally India imports more oils in 3rd & 4th quarter
as the domestic production of oils is less and festival
demandismore.
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Year
Qty(mlT
) 1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
3rd Qtr
4th Qtr
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RegionalPattern
of
Consumption
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NorthIndiaPopulation293.8ml
(23.9%)
EastIndiaPopulation358.5ml
(29.1%)
SouthIndiaPopulation257.3ml
(20.9%)
WestIndiaPopulation321.4ml
(26.1%)
Indias4Zonesforconsumptionpattern
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NorthIndia
Delhi,Punjab,
J&K,
H.P
&
U.P
etc.
Traditionally a Mustard oil & Groundnut oil Market but has some shift to Soy
oil for house hold consumption and Palm oil for out of home consumption(HORECA).
This market is a perfect mix bag of all oils. It has the lowest share inpercentage terms of Palm oil as it is the colder region of India.
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SouthIndia
Karnataka,
Tamil
Nadu,
A.P,
Kerala
etc.
The highest consumer of Palm oil both in absolute andpercentage terms. It is also the biggest market for Sunoil in India. There is a small share of Soya oil and verylow other oil consumption
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WestIndia
Gujarat,Maharashtra,Rajasthan&M.Petc.
This is the most prosperous region of India having the highest per capitaconsumption of edible oil. Acceptability of Palm oil has improved and it has
nearly 37% share. But even with 37% share this region is the second highestconsumer of Palm oil on account of high per capita consumption.
This is the highest Soy oil consuming region as the major domestic soybeancrop is grown and there is a good house hold demand of this oil.
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EastIndia
West
Bengal,
Orissa,
Bihar
etc.
This is the lowest per capita consuming region due to lower
income levels. This has 40 % share of Palm, but this is thesecond region after south where broadly the whole of theregion has accepted Palm oil in the house hold.
This is the biggest market of Mustard oil (29% share).
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StateWisepercapita
ConsumptionComparisonfor2010/11
State Per Capita State Per Capita
AndhraPradesh 13.2 MadhyaPradesh 10.4
Assam 10.7 Maharashtra 18.3
Bihar 10.6 Orissa 7.7
Chhattisgarh 10.3 Punjab,J&K,
HimachalPradesh 14.5
Delhi 17.3 Rajasthan 11.9
Gujarat 22.3 Tamilnadu 12.5Haryana 9.6 UttarPradesh 10.5
Jharkhand 12.4 WestBengal 14.1
Karnataka 13.0 Otherstates&
Unionterritories
12.4
Kerala 10.1 AllIndia 12.8The per capita is very low in Orissa, Haryana, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, M.P., Bihar,Assam etc. at 8 to 11 kgs.
The per capita is highest in Gujarat & Maharashtra at 22 and 18 kgs.
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OutOf
Home
Consumption
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OutofHome HouseHold
Out of Home consumption of edible oil in USA Vs China Vs IndiaThe annual consumption of edible oils in OHC was 4.5 mln mt in 2009/10
The out of Homeconsumption covers users
like Manufacturers ofChips, Snacks, Biscuits,
Restaurants, Hawkers,Bakeries & non edible
uses like Paints, Hair oiletc.
Out of Home Consumption
50% 50%
30%
70%
40%
60%
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Indian Biscuit industry is Growing above 14 % from 2003
Growth Rate of OHC v/s HHC
Out of HomeConsumption is
growing at a fasterpace than House
Hold Consumption.
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White Paper Survey Indian Restaurant
White Paper Survey done on Indian restaurant industry(Urban area) has revealed some fact which are as follows :
40 % is the rate at which the fast food industry is growing
in the country
80 % of urban Indians eat out seven times a month, up
from thrice in 2003
2 out of 3 families order food from outside at least once a
month.
55 % kids are served chips and Kurkure as munch- ons in
between meals.
80 % of visitors to a shopping mall end up visiting food court
The growth rate in Out of Home sector is 2 to 3times more than the home consumption rate.
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Growth RateofConsumption
We have categorized the Out of Home Consumption in theBelow Categories & Sub Categories
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CategoryOHC
Shareml T Sub- Category
Share in
Category
OHC
Shareml T
Food
Outlets 40% 1.80
SnackShop/Hawkers 50% 20% 0.90
Restaurants/
Canteen 30% 12% 0.54
Banquets/Caterers 20% 8% 0.36
FriedFood 28% 1.26 IndianSnacks 70% 20% 0.88
WesternSnacks 30% 8% 0.38
NonFried
food 20% 0.90
Bakery Products
(Outof
which
50%
is
Biscuit)65% 13% 0.59
Others* 35% 7% 0.31
Nonedible
uses 12% 0.54
HairOil 60% 8% 0.32
Others** 40% 4% 0.22
Total 100% 4.50 100% 4.50
* Confectionary, Pickles, Tables Margarine & Mayonnaise, Deserts, Ice cream, Dairy
** Soap, Cosmetics, Paints
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Observations
Difference Between Urban & Rural OHC ?
Rural OHC is quiet low in front of URBAN consumption.
Restaurants are the biggest sub category in Urban India, where
as Snacks shop are the biggest category in Rural India
Consumption of Bakery (other than BISCUITS), confectionary,
Chips is much lower in Rural India.
Because 70 % of population in India is Rural population, henceour depiction has more weightage to the Rural Trend
F t Sh t f I di id l S b C t
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FactSheetofIndividualSubCategory
Categories
Oil
Preference Why ?
Growth
Witnessed
Restaurant/
Canteen
Palm CostBenefit Highsmokepoint
Reusability HighGrowth
inallregions
Soya BetterFinish
Lowcloud
point
Snacksshop
&
Hawkers
Palm CostBenefit Highsmokepoint
Reusability HighGrowth
inallregions
Soya Whenno
alternate
is
available
Caterers
Marriage
Banquets
Vanaspati
(Palm)
CostBenefit Crispierfinish
UseinSweets
Avg.growth
inallregionSoya
BetterFinish
Lowcloud
point
Groundnut
Sunflower
Usedonlyinupperclassbanquets
BetterAroma Bettertaste
F t Sh t f I di id l S b C t
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CategoriesOil
PreferenceWhy ?
Growth
witnessed
Snacks
Sweets
Chips
Palm CostBenefit Highsmokepoint
ReusabilityHighGrowthinWest
LowGrowthinRest
ofthe
regions.
(exceptchips)
Cotton BetterFinish Lowcloudpoint
ShelfLife
RiceBran BetterFinish HealthBenefit
BakeryProd
Bakery
Shortening
(Palm)
Specializedrequirement
forbakery HighGrowth
Confectionery PalmProduct Specializedrequirement
forChocolates
HighGrowth
Pickles Mustard Aroma PungentTaste
Pickles ModerateGrowth
Icecream Palm
Kernel
Coconutoil Very
Low
Melting
Point
High
Growth
HairOil Coconutoil Traditionaluse
ModerateGrowthSEGNoil* Odorless Lesssticky
SoyaOil
FactSheetofIndividualSubCategory
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House
Hold
Consumption House Hold Consumption in India is about
70%andinabsoluteterms10to11mlT.
Indianhouseholdearlierpreferreddomestic
oils
like
Groundnut,
Rapeseed
&
Cotton
but
arenowshiftingtoPalm,Soya&Sun.
But
acceptability
of
Palm
in
household
isdrasticallydifferentindiff.regionsofIndia.
H H ld C ti f P l
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HouseHoldConsumptionofPalm
in4Zones
South : Palm has a major share in this area in house
hold. The South Indians already had acceptability for
Coconutand
smoothly
shifted
to
its
lower
priced
cousin
Palm.
East:Palm
has
made
in
roads
and
there
is
aincreasing
acceptabilityofPalmspeciallyincoastalareas.
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Futureof
Indian
Edible
Oil
Scenario
Past&ForecastedGrowthRateofFactorsaffectingConsumptionofOils.
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g p
YEAR Population
(inMln.)
Consumption PerCapitaConsumptionGDP
GrowthRate
(in%)InmlT
%Change
againstPrev.
Yr.In
Kg.
%Change
againstPrev.
Yr.
2001/02 1078 10.1 9.391 0.0% 4.6%
2002/03 1096 9.6 5.0% 8.78 6.5% 6.9%
2003/04 1113 10.3 7.3% 9.278 5.7% 8.1%
2004/05 1130 10.9 5.8% 9.636 3.9% 9.2%
2005/06 1148 11.4 4.6% 9.895 2.7% 9.7%
2006/07 1165 11.8 3.5% 10.152 2.6% 9.7%
2007/08 1181 12.4 5.1% 10.491 3.3% 9.2%
2008/09 1198 14.1 13.7% 11.735 11.9% 6.7%
2009/10 1215 14.8 5.0% 12.209 4.0% 8.0%
2010/11 1231 15.7 6.1% 12.786 4.7% 8.3%ProjectionForNext5Years
2011/12 1247 16.7 5.9% 13.362 4.5% 8.0%
2012/13 1266 17.7 6.1% 13.963 4.5% 7.8%
2013/14 1282 18.7 5.8% 14.591 4.5% 8.2%
2014/15 1299 19.8 5.9% 15.248 4.5% 8.1%
2015/16 1316 21.0 5.9% 15.934 4.5% 8.1%
Population:AsestimatedbyIMF
GDP:AsestimatedbyIMF(Projectionfor2011/12to2015/16)
Considering a promising forecasted GDP above 8% and the expected population growth wefeel the Indian edible oil demand will continue to grow at 6% or above average rate for next 5
years and so the Indian consumpt ion may reach 21.0 Million MT by 2015/16.*Projection based on general GDP growth of between 7-9 %
Availability of Domestic Oils
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AvailabilityofDomesticOils
But the domestic production may not be able to keep pace with the fast growingdemand.
The availability of domestic oil will just increase by only 1.25 million tonnes duringnext five years.
The scope for a big increase in oilseed area doesnt seem possible and the increase in area is
estimated by 3 ml hectares in next five years.
Though we see an increase in the production of oil seed but th is may not result in a big rise in oilproduction, as major contribut ion seems to come from the low oil content oilseeds in next 5 years.
There will be a very gradual increase in Yield of oilseeds and the average yield may increase
approximately by (7%) 70 Kg/Hectare in next 5 years
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
(in ml T)
B C V/ W C A l i f
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BestCaseV/sWorstCaseAnalysisof
DomesticOil
supplies
(FiguresinmlT)
Edible Oil
2010/11 2015/16
Current
Scenario
Worst
Case
Normal
Case
Best
case
DomesticSupply 7.2 8.0 8.5 9.0
DomesticDemand 15.7 21.0 21.0 21.0
ImportRequirement 8.5 13.0 12.5 12.0
As the availability of domestic oil will just increase by only 1.25million tonnes to 8.5 million tonnes whereas the demand willphenomenally increase by 5.3 million tonnes to 21 million tonnes,the imports of India will increase to 12.5 million tonnes from 8.5million tonnes just now.
I i D d I
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IncreasingDependenceonImports
YearDomestic
ProductionImport Total
Domestic
Production
Import
Dependence
% %
2001/02 5.64 4.42 10.06 56.0% 44.0%
2002/03 4.32 5.12 9.44 45.8% 54.2%2003/04 6.07 4.40 10.47 58.0% 42.0%
2004/05 5.54 5.04 10.58 52.3% 47.7%
2005/06 6.90 4.42 11.32 61.0% 39.0%
2006/07 6.80 4.71 11.52 59.1% 40.9%2007/08 7.00 5.61 12.61 55.5% 44.5%
2008/09 6.34 8.18 14.53 43.7% 56.3%
2009/10 6.20 8.82 15.02 41.3% 58.7%
2010/11 7.24 8.54 15.78 45.8% 54.1%
2015/16 8.50 12.50 21.00 40.5% 59.5%
The Import dependence of India will further increase to 60% from 54 %currently.
(in ml T)
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21.0 million tonnes15.7 million tonnes
CurrentV/s
Forecasted
Share
of
DifferentOilsinConsumption
*Composit ion of import will depend on pr ice difference between different oils.
SHARE IN CONSUMPTION OF EDIBLE
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SHAREINCONSUMPTIONOFEDIBLE
OILSIN
2015/16
V/S
LAST
10
years
YearGN SBO RAPE SUN CSO PALM OTHER TOTAL
% % % % % % % ml T %
2001/02 12.0% 22.3% 17.0% 3.1% 4.4% 29.1% 12.2% 10.1 100%
2002/03 7.5% 19.1% 12.3% 5.2% 4.3% 39.4% 12.2% 9.6 100%2003/04 8.7% 18.1% 16.6% 4.7% 4.8% 33.4% 13.8% 10.3 100%
2004/05 8.0% 26.2% 12.6% 4.1% 6.1% 28.3% 14.9% 10.9 100%
2005/06 7.0% 25.0% 19.7% 5.1% 6.6% 22.8% 13.9% 11.4 100%
2006/07 5.0% 22.5% 17.7% 5.7% 7.8% 26.9% 14.4% 11.8 100%2007/08 5.6% 17.5% 14.6% 4.4% 8.6% 35.8% 13.5% 12.4 100%
2008/09 4.2% 15.0% 11.5% 6.0% 6.9% 45.5% 11.0% 14.1 100%
2009/10 2.6% 19.1% 11.5% 6.4% 7.7% 42.9% 9.8% 14.8 100%
2010/11 3.1% 16.5% 14.5% 6.5% 7.0% 42.9% 9.5% 15.7 100%
2015/16 1.3% 17.6% 12.4% 7.2% 6.1% 45.5% 9.8% 21.0 100%
Opportunities For Palm In India
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OpportunitiesForPalmInIndia
1. Share in House Hold consumption is very low except South & CostalKarnataka & Orissa.
2. As Palm oil solidifies, people feel there is something wrong in i t.
3. There is perception in middle & upper class people that Palm oil is nota good oi l.
4. Palm oil is sti ll considered a poor mans oil.
1. Marketing of the Brand Palm needs to be done.
2. Propagating usage of higher quality oil Like Double Fractionated.
3. To make consumer aware that Palm oil contains low Trans-fatty Acidin comparison with Soybean oil .
4. Low cloud oil should be marketed.
Drawbacks
What can be done
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MajorOils(PalmOil,SoyOil,MustardOil)
PalmOil
Mustard
Oil
SoyOil
SoWhatwillbe2015/16
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CottonseedOil Sunflower
Oil
MinorOils(SunflowerOil,CottonseedOil)
SoWhatwillbe2015/16
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