Global Agenda!Global Agenda!http://web.mit.edu/globalhttp://web.mit.edu/global

Political Gaming & Interactive Edutainment Political Gaming & Interactive Edutainment inin a New Global Order a New Global Order

GSSD groupGSSD group

© 2004 © 2004 MITMIT All rights reservedAll rights reserved

Political Science Department Political Science Department

July 200

November 2004

Why gaming in education?Why gaming in education? From Rational Choice to Systems Thinking and then to Global From Rational Choice to Systems Thinking and then to Global

SustainabilitySustainability Knowledge must be meaningful and relevant to the individual to be Knowledge must be meaningful and relevant to the individual to be

usefuluseful (experimentalism and (experimentalism and pragmatic constructivism)pragmatic constructivism) From simple to more complex scenarios, the player will be the From simple to more complex scenarios, the player will be the

builder of his “political & global knowledge” -- and hence of his own builder of his “political & global knowledge” -- and hence of his own future -- by making decisions, choosing actions, consulting advisors, future -- by making decisions, choosing actions, consulting advisors, taking risks and optionstaking risks and options

From Games to Microworlds: playing with botsFrom Games to Microworlds: playing with bots Making real Decisions “where there is no turning back”Making real Decisions “where there is no turning back”

An Educational Market,An Educational Market, not a Genre not a Genre

Educational games Educational games • AA market market not design genre not design genre• Overlap between genres & Overlap between genres &

pedagogypedagogy• Any game could have Any game could have

educational value educational value ((GameMaven… GameMaven… leveraging leveraging gaming pop culture)gaming pop culture)

Evolution of 3 market segmentsEvolution of 3 market segments• Classroom-basedClassroom-based• Home consumer, cross-mediaHome consumer, cross-media• Titles with educational valueTitles with educational value

Breaking traditional K-12 age Breaking traditional K-12 age rangerange• Challenge: Conservative H.S. Challenge: Conservative H.S.

teachersteachers• Opportunity: Rise of interactive Opportunity: Rise of interactive

entertainment generationentertainment generation

Player TastesPlayer Tastes

Thief versus Thief versus Age of Empires PlayersAge of Empires Players

Core assumptionsCore assumptions

It is possible for a game to support It is possible for a game to support multiple player-types.multiple player-types.

• Socializers, killers, achievers, & Socializers, killers, achievers, & explorers explorers (Bartle, 1991)(Bartle, 1991)

1 Taxonomy of Player types1 Taxonomy of Player types

Player Killers(PvP Competitive)

Socializers(Social Play)

Explorers(Learn the game)

Achievers(Beat the game)

Player InteractionsPlayer Interactions

Player Killers(PvP Competitive)

Socializers(Social Play)

Explorers(Learn the game)

Achievers(Beat the game)

Benefits of virtual environments for Benefits of virtual environments for educationeducation

“ “[K]now[ing] the world in different ways, [K]now[ing] the world in different ways, from different stances, and each of the from different stances, and each of the ways in which we know it produces ways in which we know it produces different structures or representations, or, different structures or representations, or, indeed, ‘realities’ …we become indeed, ‘realities’ …we become increasingly adept at seeing the same set increasingly adept at seeing the same set of events from multiple perspectives or of events from multiple perspectives or stances and at entertaining the results as, stances and at entertaining the results as, so to speak, alternative possible worlds.” so to speak, alternative possible worlds.”

(Jerome Bruner, (Jerome Bruner, Actual Minds, Possible WorldsActual Minds, Possible Worlds, 1986), 1986)

Interactive Gaming and Political EdutainmentInteractive Gaming and Political Edutainment

Related GamesRelated Games

Hidden AgendaHidden Agenda TropicoTropico Ashes to EmpireAshes to Empire Civilization IIICivilization III SimCitySimCity Virtual UVirtual U Command and ConquerCommand and Conquer EverquestEverquest

+ a whole bunch of web-based games (mostly in Flash) that + a whole bunch of web-based games (mostly in Flash) that have appeared during Election Period in the U.S.have appeared during Election Period in the U.S.

Our Product: Global Agenda!Our Product: Global Agenda!

2D single-player interactive political videogame: how’s 2D single-player interactive political videogame: how’s to be a president of a country?to be a president of a country?

““Real” world politics simulation + a fiction gameReal” world politics simulation + a fiction game Set in 2003, with “Back to the Past” challengesSet in 2003, with “Back to the Past” challenges Based on social science & political science theory & Based on social science & political science theory &

empirical dataempirical data 3 levels of play/analysis: global system, nation-state and 3 levels of play/analysis: global system, nation-state and

“your office” (cabinet, advisors, barometers)“your office” (cabinet, advisors, barometers)

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Gaming within the context of IRGaming within the context of IR Experience to date indicates that students are not provided with the Experience to date indicates that students are not provided with the

necessary tools to appreciate the complexities of international relations or necessary tools to appreciate the complexities of international relations or to understand interconnections among issues. They find it difficult to to understand interconnections among issues. They find it difficult to envisage how one set of problems in one part of the world could create envisage how one set of problems in one part of the world could create unintended consequences in other parts. This, in large part, is due to the unintended consequences in other parts. This, in large part, is due to the dominance of the ‘linear-verbal’ tradition in the study of international dominance of the ‘linear-verbal’ tradition in the study of international relations. relations.

Our focus is on enhancing students’ understanding of Our focus is on enhancing students’ understanding of transformation and change in relations among nations, taking into transformation and change in relations among nations, taking into account the power of non-state actors (notably international account the power of non-state actors (notably international corporations, terrorist groups, the United Nations), and addressing corporations, terrorist groups, the United Nations), and addressing complex issues (conflict and violence, trade-offs in strategies for complex issues (conflict and violence, trade-offs in strategies for sustainability, environmental politics).sustainability, environmental politics).

Why Why Global Agenda!...?Global Agenda!...?

New global realities call for new analytical toolsNew global realities call for new analytical tools Complex interdependence needs ‘tracking’ toolsComplex interdependence needs ‘tracking’ tools Edutainment is a ‘test bed’ for strategic analysisEdutainment is a ‘test bed’ for strategic analysis Harnessing ‘realism’ empowers gamingHarnessing ‘realism’ empowers gaming Political science theory & tools create robustnessPolitical science theory & tools create robustness Multi-disciplinary design reinforces total valueMulti-disciplinary design reinforces total value

).

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HighlightsHighlights

Multiplayer game (with single player options)Multiplayer game (with single player options) Role-based players endowed with capacity of real Role-based players endowed with capacity of real

life figureslife figures Interactions in a ‘real’ global landscape Interactions in a ‘real’ global landscape Operation of ‘chance’ & surpriseOperation of ‘chance’ & surprise Feedback systems & agent based strategiesFeedback systems & agent based strategies Balance sheets updated with each moveBalance sheets updated with each move Known & emergent ‘Known & emergent ‘Hot SpotsHot Spots’’ ‘‘Winning’ & ‘losing’ barometers & outcomesWinning’ & ‘losing’ barometers & outcomes

).

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Game PlayGame Play

You You choose a rolechoose a role (power-resources & congitive assumptions) – (power-resources & congitive assumptions) – select ‘goals’ select ‘goals’

Click into one of the Click into one of the Hot SpotsHot Spots across the planet across the planet YouYou will proceed through different stages of political moves: the will proceed through different stages of political moves: the

more you advance by more you advance by making decisionsmaking decisions and managing and managing iinternal/external pressures or crises,nternal/external pressures or crises, the more complex the the more complex the game-environments becomegame-environments become

As As you (agent) you (agent) obtain obtain more powermore power and and knowledgeknowledge you will you will facefacess more unintended consequencesmore unintended consequences – both – both randomly randomly and and because of the because of the choiceschoices you have you have mademade

Remember – every move you make has Remember – every move you make has costs & benefits. costs & benefits. There’s No turning back...There’s No turning back...

You will travel through You will travel through 5 stages5 stages, spanning , spanning 10 years10 years of real of real action in the world. At the end of the play, whether within one of action in the world. At the end of the play, whether within one of these 5 stages or at the very end of the last one, you will these 5 stages or at the very end of the last one, you will receive a “receive a “Report from HistoryReport from History” …. If you are still alive!” …. If you are still alive!

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Playing different RolesPlaying different Roles

Select rolesSelect roles (power-resources & cognitive assumptions) (power-resources & cognitive assumptions) Moves are ‘Moves are ‘human-induced’human-induced’ but transmission of effects but transmission of effects

are endogenous to the gameare endogenous to the game Hot spotsHot spots define initial interaction domain define initial interaction domain Chance operates – there is Chance operates – there is no certaintyno certainty Each player has internal & external Each player has internal & external constraintsconstraints Multiple & Multiple & diverse strategiesdiverse strategies – no one move fits all – no one move fits all Players can ‘exit’ – Players can ‘exit’ – win/losewin/lose is context-specific is context-specific Verdict of History is issued!Verdict of History is issued!

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Perspective as camera point of view & Perspective as camera point of view & navigation in virtual environmentsnavigation in virtual environments

Perspectives produced by applying differing camera parameters to Perspectives produced by applying differing camera parameters to egocentric (1egocentric (1stst person) or exocentric (3 person) or exocentric (3rdrd person) views and the person) views and the accompanying the ability to alter the scale and viewpoint on the accompanying the ability to alter the scale and viewpoint on the scene for manipulation of the world .scene for manipulation of the world .

Perspectives occur when multiple participants of heterogeneous Perspectives occur when multiple participants of heterogeneous perspectives collaborate in the creation of and interpretation of a perspectives collaborate in the creation of and interpretation of a shared virtual space. shared virtual space.

Perspectives are produced as a result of applying information Perspectives are produced as a result of applying information unique to each player by means of specific levels achieved or unique to each player by means of specific levels achieved or experience accumulated which allows a broader knowledge of experience accumulated which allows a broader knowledge of underlying systems.underlying systems.

Perspective occurs from the maturing experience over time within Perspective occurs from the maturing experience over time within a system capable of sustaining a sense of temporal continuity. As a system capable of sustaining a sense of temporal continuity. As the environment persists and evolves over time as new vistas are the environment persists and evolves over time as new vistas are explored new skills are also developed and applied to new explored new skills are also developed and applied to new problems and quests. (Jason Leigh and Andrew E. Johnson)problems and quests. (Jason Leigh and Andrew E. Johnson)

Virtual identity, switching and Virtual identity, switching and multiple points of viewmultiple points of view

“… “…[T]he freedom to move through space…[T]he freedom to move through space…can serve a more radical cultural purpose: can serve a more radical cultural purpose: to enable us to occupy the position, and to enable us to occupy the position, and therefore the point of view, of people or therefore the point of view, of people or creatures different from ourselves. creatures different from ourselves.

Assuming multiple perspectives is a Assuming multiple perspectives is a powerful capacity. ‘Only when…[one] powerful capacity. ‘Only when…[one] understand[s] that each person sees from a understand[s] that each person sees from a different perspective can they learn to different perspective can they learn to relate to others in an empathetic way.’” relate to others in an empathetic way.’” (Benedikt, 1991) (Benedikt, 1991)

(Bolter & Grusin, (Bolter & Grusin, Remediation: Understanding New MediaRemediation: Understanding New Media, 2000), 2000)

Factors to Consider ......Factors to Consider ......

Cognitive AssumptionsCognitive Assumptions Environmental conditions & terrainEnvironmental conditions & terrain Reality of borders & managing malleabilityReality of borders & managing malleability Emergent terror & threats to securityEmergent terror & threats to security National goals vs. international community National goals vs. international community Steering through the reality of domestic politicsSteering through the reality of domestic politics Managing budget constraintsManaging budget constraints Facing public opinion/mediaFacing public opinion/media

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Logics of Reality Logics of Reality

Competing objectivesCompeting objectives Trade-offs Trade-offs Intended vs. unintended consequences Intended vs. unintended consequences Understanding contexts, reducing constraintsUnderstanding contexts, reducing constraints Retaining domestic & other supportRetaining domestic & other support Managing multiple and connected ‘Managing multiple and connected ‘Hot SpotsHot Spots’’ Anticipating emergent ‘Anticipating emergent ‘Hot SpotsHot Spots’’ Perceptions & cognitive assumptions Perceptions & cognitive assumptions Making decisionsMaking decisions

MIT

In Sum …In Sum …

Global Agenda!Global Agenda!

draws some of its design concepts from draws some of its design concepts from microworldsmicroworlds (player as builder, from (player as builder, from simple to complex settings, self-regulated simple to complex settings, self-regulated learning), learning), simulations simulations (attempts to mimic (attempts to mimic real global order) and, of course, from real global order) and, of course, from gamesgames (challenge, curiosity, fun). (challenge, curiosity, fun).

A Hot Spot-based GameA Hot Spot-based Game

MIT

Global! Concepts and TopicsGlobal! Concepts and Topics

Action-reaction Action-reaction Tradeoffs Tradeoffs ““Time”Time” Balancing different levels Balancing different levels Feedback Feedback ““Winning” in a national vs. global Winning” in a national vs. global

environmentenvironment Understanding Complex DataUnderstanding Complex Data Specific IR Issues (Borders as a main issue)Specific IR Issues (Borders as a main issue)

Action – Reaction Action – Reaction

Every action inevitably brings a reaction Every action inevitably brings a reaction This will be demonstrated through the This will be demonstrated through the

changing of the visible and invisible changing of the visible and invisible variables/barometers variables/barometers • U.S. centric attitudes, behaviors, actions, etc U.S. centric attitudes, behaviors, actions, etc • Other country specific attitudes, behaviors, Other country specific attitudes, behaviors,

actions, etcactions, etc• World attitudes, behaviors, actions, etc World attitudes, behaviors, actions, etc

Tradeoffs Tradeoffs As the leader of a country, a player must learn As the leader of a country, a player must learn

that they cannot do everything, and thus must that they cannot do everything, and thus must decide between tradeoffs. decide between tradeoffs.

Some important tradeoffs:Some important tradeoffs:• Time-intertwined with everything Time-intertwined with everything • Who to please–self, advisors, political party, US public, Who to please–self, advisors, political party, US public,

world leaders, world public? Which Barometer?world leaders, world public? Which Barometer?• What issues are most important to deal with? What issues are most important to deal with? • Whether to further pursue solving an issue /hotspot or Whether to further pursue solving an issue /hotspot or

move on to a new issue move on to a new issue • Money element – if we have limited monetary resources, Money element – if we have limited monetary resources,

how to allocate them to appropriate causes. how to allocate them to appropriate causes. • Issue tradeoffs – i.e., growth vs. sustainabilityIssue tradeoffs – i.e., growth vs. sustainability

TimeTime Logic of time Logic of time

• Time as both a resource and a constraintTime as both a resource and a constraint Concept of Time as a tradeoffConcept of Time as a tradeoff

• The game allows limited time, so player The game allows limited time, so player must decide what issues are most important must decide what issues are most important to deal withto deal with

Reactions to actions taken often have the Reactions to actions taken often have the time delay, whether expressed in changes time delay, whether expressed in changes in barometers/variables or messages to in barometers/variables or messages to the player about the current state of the the player about the current state of the hotspothotspot new new

Time as an Opportunity Cost Time as an Opportunity Cost Costs as a part Costs as a part of the barometer or the burden on youof the barometer or the burden on you

Relativity of Time: different ‘time sense’ Relativity of Time: different ‘time sense’ depending on the hot spot and situationdepending on the hot spot and situation

Time (continued)Time (continued) One way to deal with Time : One way to deal with Time :

• If we assume each player turn is one month, we can break up If we assume each player turn is one month, we can break up the time in two days or weeks the time in two days or weeks

• Every new screen take some amount of days in a month, i.e.:Every new screen take some amount of days in a month, i.e.: One day to review a hot spot on and the president’s agenda One day to review a hot spot on and the president’s agenda One day to consult an expert/adviser One day to consult an expert/adviser One to ten days to carry out an option in dealing with the hotspot One to ten days to carry out an option in dealing with the hotspot Note: In an advanced version of the game, we can allow players to Note: In an advanced version of the game, we can allow players to

act on other issues while waiting for a resultact on other issues while waiting for a result• Thus one can only get to few in depth issues or many shallowly Thus one can only get to few in depth issues or many shallowly

dealt with hot spotsdealt with hot spots• If a player wastes time always asking “experts” for advice, If a player wastes time always asking “experts” for advice,

he/she will delay solving the issue, allowing for more pressure he/she will delay solving the issue, allowing for more pressure to build up in the hot spot to build up in the hot spot

Balancing different levelsBalancing different levels It is important to convey the concept to the It is important to convey the concept to the

player that the president of a country cannot player that the president of a country cannot only think domestically with respect to only think domestically with respect to policies on topics such aspolicies on topics such as• Security Security • EconomicsEconomics• Resources Resources • EnvironmentEnvironment• Others... Others...

Different levels of thinking about how to Different levels of thinking about how to solve a problem: internal/external, solve a problem: internal/external, local/international local/international

FeedbackFeedback If a player must have a chance to change how If a player must have a chance to change how

they react based on the results of their actions – they react based on the results of their actions – these results are feedback these results are feedback

Every move as a consequence positive and/or Every move as a consequence positive and/or negative negative

How to possibly deal with this:How to possibly deal with this:• After a player is down working on a hot spot, present a After a player is down working on a hot spot, present a

summary of the players actions and the visible reactions summary of the players actions and the visible reactions • If out hotspot is “solved” by some sequence of actions, If out hotspot is “solved” by some sequence of actions,

presents some summary of what led to the result presents some summary of what led to the result • At the end of the game, present some sort of a “history” At the end of the game, present some sort of a “history”

of the president’s time in office (Highlight some key of the president’s time in office (Highlight some key moves player made, and key changes that occurred in moves player made, and key changes that occurred in the world during the game). Also this gives us a chance the world during the game). Also this gives us a chance to expose some of the domestic and world variables to expose some of the domestic and world variables that were hidden throughout the game that were being that were hidden throughout the game that were being measured and links to the setting off or solving it of hot measured and links to the setting off or solving it of hot spots.spots.

Understanding Complex DataUnderstanding Complex Data

This is where Displays fit into the pictureThis is where Displays fit into the picture Visualization Displays would be an ideal Visualization Displays would be an ideal

way toway to• give give feedback feedback of before/after states of the of before/after states of the

world and the country. world and the country. • Give player information about “current” states Give player information about “current” states

of the nation/world in the game while the of the nation/world in the game while the players making decisions players making decisions

• Give real world information about trends in Give real world information about trends in history to base future decisions on thishistory to base future decisions on this

• Moving BordersMoving Borders

Win StatesWin States Winning the GameWinning the Game

• Completing one entire hot spot successfully Completing one entire hot spot successfully • Satisfying both National and International BarometersSatisfying both National and International Barometers• Being re-elected Being re-elected • Receiving a favorable “Verdict of History”Receiving a favorable “Verdict of History”

Winning StagesWinning Stages• Transcending obstacles (financial crises, public opinion pressure, Transcending obstacles (financial crises, public opinion pressure,

energy crises, war and terrorist jeopardy)energy crises, war and terrorist jeopardy)• ““Just-in-time” decision-making, diplomatic negotiation, prioritization, Just-in-time” decision-making, diplomatic negotiation, prioritization,

good luck (becausegood luck (because of of unfortunate random events) unfortunate random events)• Endurance & sustainability, charisma, military and economic power and Endurance & sustainability, charisma, military and economic power and

intelligent operationintelligent operation

Examples:

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Failure StatesFailure States Lose conditionsLose conditions

• Running out of budget (financial crises)Running out of budget (financial crises)• Running out of time (in key hot spot) Running out of time (in key hot spot) • Loss of Domestic support (*failure in next election)Loss of Domestic support (*failure in next election)• Depleting international support (military intervention).Depleting international support (military intervention).• Stalemate or loss in Stalemate or loss in Hot SpotHot Spot strategy strategy • Emergency Crises –civil, environmental, security-Emergency Crises –civil, environmental, security-• Negative ‘Verdict of History’Negative ‘Verdict of History’

* Elections procedures apply to nation-states & international organizations. In * Elections procedures apply to nation-states & international organizations. In the case of non-state actors such as terrorist networks, the level of the case of non-state actors such as terrorist networks, the level of charisma (and even its loss) will be the “internal” barometer. charisma (and even its loss) will be the “internal” barometer.

MIT

““Winning” the game and Winning” the game and learning through it …learning through it …

Through the feedback mechanism, it is important Through the feedback mechanism, it is important to convey the message that winning the election to convey the message that winning the election in the player’s country does not mean that the in the player’s country does not mean that the state of the nation, or of the world, is good. state of the nation, or of the world, is good.

Some good questions to leave in the players’ Some good questions to leave in the players’ minds is: minds is:

• ““Is there really a way to win when you lead the country? Is there really a way to win when you lead the country?

The United States?”The United States?”• ““Is it important to please the whole world, or should I Is it important to please the whole world, or should I

only look out for my own country’s interests?”only look out for my own country’s interests?”• ““If people are happy, but the environment has been If people are happy, but the environment has been

threatened or endangered, do the people really win? threatened or endangered, do the people really win? • Can a sub-system and the whole system be sustainable Can a sub-system and the whole system be sustainable

at the same time? at the same time?

Gains to EducationGains to Education Combines traditional notions of education (the world Combines traditional notions of education (the world

is such and suchis such and such)) with problem-solving, agents- with problem-solving, agents-based models, strategic reasoning, crisis and budget based models, strategic reasoning, crisis and budget management and constructivist notions—all management and constructivist notions—all embedding the embedding the player as a builderplayer as a builder and a and a shaper shaper of of his/her own political environmenthis/her own political environment..

EEnhancnhances the es the experience of experience of political edutainmentpolitical edutainment about global issuesabout global issues and and increase the sensitivity of increase the sensitivity of students to their external students to their external ambients ( and seeing ambients ( and seeing differently).differently).

Provides platform & context for advanced research Provides platform & context for advanced research on global systems. on global systems.

MIT

Gains to Strategic AnalysisGains to Strategic Analysis Combines alternative gaming modalities & modeling Combines alternative gaming modalities & modeling

capabilities with problem-solving, agents-based capabilities with problem-solving, agents-based models, strategic reasoning, beliefs systems, crisis models, strategic reasoning, beliefs systems, crisis and budget management and cognitive notions—all and budget management and cognitive notions—all embedding the embedding the player as a builderplayer as a builder and a creator of and a creator of his/her own political environmenthis/her own political environment..

EEnhancnhances the es the experience of experience of ‘thinking globally’ ‘thinking globally’ as as well as ‘well as ‘acting locally’; acting locally’; enables looking at theenables looking at the whole whole and the sum of theand the sum of the parts. Enables tracking second parts. Enables tracking second and higher order effects of ’moves’.and higher order effects of ’moves’.

Draws on theory, insights, evidence in the Draws on theory, insights, evidence in the social social sciencessciences; grounding assumptions, approach & ; grounding assumptions, approach & design in robust knowledge-foundations.design in robust knowledge-foundations.

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Gains to Games-BusinessGains to Games-Business New generation of global games; embedded ‘realism’ in New generation of global games; embedded ‘realism’ in

design of actors, agents, landscapes, motivations, etc.design of actors, agents, landscapes, motivations, etc. Combines alternative gaming modalities & modeling Combines alternative gaming modalities & modeling

capabilities with problem-solving, agents-based models, capabilities with problem-solving, agents-based models, strategic reasoning, beliefs systems, crisis and budget strategic reasoning, beliefs systems, crisis and budget management and cognitive notionsmanagement and cognitive notions

Focuses on Focuses on player as a builderplayer as a builder and a and a creatorcreator of his/her of his/her own strategic environmentsown strategic environments

Draws on multiple gaming functionalities – from Draws on multiple gaming functionalities – from autonomous single player to immersed multiple playersautonomous single player to immersed multiple players

Enables gaming collective outcomes of individual actions Enables gaming collective outcomes of individual actions andand individual impacts of collective outcomes individual impacts of collective outcomes

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Extracting Template from ICEExtracting Template from ICE   http://http://wwwwww..americanamerican..eduedu/TED/ice/ice./TED/ice/ice.htmhtm

Number x, Month, YearNumber x, Month, Year Title and AuthorTitle and Author I. CASE BACKGROUNDI. CASE BACKGROUND

1. Abstract 1. Abstract 2. Description2. Description3. Duration3. Duration4. Location4. Location5. Actors 5. Actors

II. Environment AspectsII. Environment Aspects6. Type of Environmental Problem6. Type of Environmental Problem7. Type of Habitat7. Type of Habitat8. Act and Harm Sites:8. Act and Harm Sites:

III. Conflict AspectsIII. Conflict Aspects9. Type of Conflict9. Type of Conflict10. Level of Conflict10. Level of Conflict11. Fatality Level of Dispute (military and civilian fatalities)11. Fatality Level of Dispute (military and civilian fatalities)

IV. Environment and Conflict OverlapIV. Environment and Conflict Overlap12. Environment-Conflict Link and Dynamics: Causal Diagram 12. Environment-Conflict Link and Dynamics: Causal Diagram 13. Level of Strategic Interest13. Level of Strategic Interest14. Outcome of Dispute:14. Outcome of Dispute:

V. Related Information and SourcesV. Related Information and Sources15. Related ICE and TED Cases15. Related ICE and TED Cases16. Relevant Websites and Literature16. Relevant Websites and Literature

Hotspot Template:

Breaking down HotspotsBreaking down Hotspots Necessary elements for hotspot:Necessary elements for hotspot:

• Title and players involved in hotspot Title and players involved in hotspot • Explanation and background identifying the dangers/issues Explanation and background identifying the dangers/issues

known to the administration known to the administration • Options: listed and described in partially to the player Options: listed and described in partially to the player • Advice: two or more different (partial) views of how to deal Advice: two or more different (partial) views of how to deal

with the situation given the options at hand and why with the situation given the options at hand and why • Relevant unbiased displays/Information that can be used to Relevant unbiased displays/Information that can be used to

make decisions as to what to do make decisions as to what to do • Results: visible and invisible to player, includes Results: visible and invisible to player, includes

how each barometer is affected (with some degree of how each barometer is affected (with some degree of randomness), randomness),

List of possible outcomes related to state of the barometers and List of possible outcomes related to state of the barometers and actions taken actions taken

Scripts that can be used for feedback Scripts that can be used for feedback Displays that can be used at end of hotspot or end of term Displays that can be used at end of hotspot or end of term

feedback feedback

Barometers to monitor: tools to Barometers to monitor: tools to consult your performanceconsult your performance

Visible:Visible:• U.S. centric: U.S. centric:

Population Population EconomyEconomy Health of country Health of country State of environment (maybe State of environment (maybe

an optional variable you can an optional variable you can spend “time” to view) spend “time” to view)

Security/defense level Security/defense level Domestic approval rating Domestic approval rating

• International:International: Global leader support Global leader support Global status/rank in various Global status/rank in various

categories (?) In categories (?) In • Other player involved in a Other player involved in a

hotspot (country/group) hotspot (country/group) Tension/threat Tension/threat Strength of political/ Strength of political/

organizational systemorganizational system

Invisible:Invisible:• U.S. centric: U.S. centric:

Immigration levelsImmigration levels How important economy, How important economy,

security, etc., are in security, etc., are in determining visible approval determining visible approval rating (changes in each rating (changes in each game)game)

• International:International: Well being (economic, health, Well being (economic, health,

environment) environment) U.S. approval U.S. approval

• Other player involved in a Other player involved in a hotspot (country/group) hotspot (country/group)

Responsiveness to U.S. Responsiveness to U.S. actions (positive vs. negative) actions (positive vs. negative)

EconomyEconomy HealthHealth Environment Environment Security/defense level Security/defense level

Creating HotspotsCreating Hotspots

Hotspot Info:

Option A

Option BGet Advice

Ignore Hotspot

Option C

AffectBarometers

Textual Feedback

Int’l Negotiation

No Advice

AffectBarometers

Textual Feedback

AffectBarometers

Textual Feedback

AffectBarometers

Textual Feedback

Agenda:

•Hotspot 1

•Hotspot 2

•View state of nation

•View State of world

US barometers

World barometers

Other Actor barometers

Compilationof player’s “History”

Stay on Hotspot

Return to Agenda

New options, updates on situation

Hotspot based on FalklandsHotspot based on Falklands Hotspot InfoHotspot Info

• Your country has an island territory/colony (the Your country has an island territory/colony (the Falklands) near Argentina. The islands' economy Falklands) near Argentina. The islands' economy has been crumbling. Output has fallen by a has been crumbling. Output has fallen by a quarter in the past 5 years, and the population, quarter in the past 5 years, and the population, sapped by emigration, has dwindled from 2,400 sapped by emigration, has dwindled from 2,400 to 1,800.to 1,800.

• The prospect of continuing to subsidize an ailing The prospect of continuing to subsidize an ailing colony so many kilometers away in the South colony so many kilometers away in the South Atlantic has led your country to try to give the Atlantic has led your country to try to give the Falklands to Argentina, which claims sovereignty Falklands to Argentina, which claims sovereignty over them and knows them as the Malvinas. over them and knows them as the Malvinas. However, the protests of the islanders who are However, the protests of the islanders who are overwhelmingly descendants of your country, overwhelmingly descendants of your country, has stopped this attempt. Leopoldo Galtieri, has stopped this attempt. Leopoldo Galtieri, Argentina's dictator, has gotten fed up with Argentina's dictator, has gotten fed up with waiting and is about to just snatch the islandswaiting and is about to just snatch the islands

Advice 1Advice 1• ““Don’t forget that the real motivation to have Don’t forget that the real motivation to have

this island is for the natural resources it this island is for the natural resources it possesses. Both our country and Argentina want possesses. Both our country and Argentina want the islands so they can exploit the oil and fishing the islands so they can exploit the oil and fishing territory that comes with the island. It’s not territory that comes with the island. It’s not something we should give up on too easily.”something we should give up on too easily.”

Advice 2Advice 2• ““Who needs those little islands. I hear all they Who needs those little islands. I hear all they

have there is a bunch of sheep and some squid. have there is a bunch of sheep and some squid. Well, I suppose if you cared about being close to Well, I suppose if you cared about being close to Antarctica you might like being there. But it’s so Antarctica you might like being there. But it’s so far away from here – it’s hard to maintain a far away from here – it’s hard to maintain a territory from here.”territory from here.”

Option A : Go to war to protect your colonyOption A : Go to war to protect your colony• affect Barometersaffect Barometers• Feedback: You have avoided national and personal Feedback: You have avoided national and personal

humiliation. However war has hurt the already ailing humiliation. However war has hurt the already ailing economy and infrastructure. Your forces were economy and infrastructure. Your forces were dispatched on April 3, the first troops landing at San dispatched on April 3, the first troops landing at San Carlos Bay on May 21. By June 14, the Argentine Carlos Bay on May 21. By June 14, the Argentine invaders had been overcome after fierce sea, land and invaders had been overcome after fierce sea, land and air battles. 12,000 troops surrendered. 258 Britons, air battles. 12,000 troops surrendered. 258 Britons, including three Falkland Islands civilians, lost their lives. including three Falkland Islands civilians, lost their lives.

Option B : Let Argentina have the islandsOption B : Let Argentina have the islands• affect Barometersaffect Barometers• Feedback: You have disappointed the people of the Feedback: You have disappointed the people of the

Falklands, and have shown the world that your Falklands, and have shown the world that your territories are not very important to you. Argentina is territories are not very important to you. Argentina is happy with your decision, as you have justified their happy with your decision, as you have justified their claim to the islands. claim to the islands.

Option C: Negotiate a bargain.Option C: Negotiate a bargain.• affect Barometersaffect Barometers• Feedback: The agreement you want is to keep the Feedback: The agreement you want is to keep the

islands as your colony, and allow Argentina to share in islands as your colony, and allow Argentina to share in more of its resources through more oil partnerships and more of its resources through more oil partnerships and rights to fish in the surrounding waters. Argentina still rights to fish in the surrounding waters. Argentina still claims that the islands are rightfully theirs, but may claims that the islands are rightfully theirs, but may accept the deal to spare a war over it. accept the deal to spare a war over it.

Option D: Do nothing: Option D: Do nothing: • Affect BarometersAffect Barometers• Feedback: A massive invasion of the Islands by Feedback: A massive invasion of the Islands by

Argentine forces takes place. The 80 Royal Marines and Argentine forces takes place. The 80 Royal Marines and local volunteer force were overpowered after local volunteer force were overpowered after courageous resistance and the Islands are placed under courageous resistance and the Islands are placed under Argentinean rule. The inslanders are resisting, but you Argentinean rule. The inslanders are resisting, but you may have to go to war after all to protect them… but it may have to go to war after all to protect them… but it will take almost two months to get troops there to fight, will take almost two months to get troops there to fight, because of the distance. (Another choice of actions because of the distance. (Another choice of actions here)here)

Falkland HotspotFalkland Hotspot

Hotspot Info:Your Country

ArgentinaFalkland/Malvina

Islands

A: Go to warwar

B: Give to ArgentinaGet Advice

Ignore Hotspot

C: Negotiatebargain

AffectBarometers

Feedback

D: Do nothing

No Advice

AffectBarometers

Feedback

AffectBarometers

Feedback

AffectBarometers

Feedback

Agenda:

•Falkland Oil Conflict

•Hotspot 2

•View state of nation

•View State of world

US barometers

World barometers

Other Actor barometers

Compilationof player’s “History”

Stay on Hotspot

Return to Agenda

New options, updates on situation

You return from overseas and are sitting at You return from overseas and are sitting at your office, consulting the reports (barometer)your office, consulting the reports (barometer)

Then, an unexpected event takes Then, an unexpected event takes place in your country…place in your country…

Time is running out 09:59

Internal Barometer is LOW

You decide to meet one of the You decide to meet one of the

four advisors, he appears on the video-four advisors, he appears on the video-screen and communicates data about the screen and communicates data about the

situationsituation

The continuation of the Hot SpotThe continuation of the Hot Spot

Hotspot Info:Allied War

Deploy Troops

Build anInt allianceGet Advice

Ignore Hotspot

Delay

long & costly

short & effective

Negotiate w/enemy

No Advice

Meet w/ leaders

make global call

UN

Internalmeetings

AffectBarometers

Textual Feedback

Agenda:

•Hotspot 1

•Hotspot 2

•View state of nation

•View State of world

US barometers

World barometers

Other Actor barometers

Compilationof player’s “History”

Stay on Hotspot

Return to Agenda

New options, updates on situation

barometer goes down

new actors

Both?

Meanwhile, a “green agenda” has popped up in the Meanwhile, a “green agenda” has popped up in the International CommunityInternational Community

The US wants to protect the environment and limit deforestation, but at the same time The US wants to protect the environment and limit deforestation, but at the same time they do not want to be caught up with leftist extremists. On the other hand, they need they do not want to be caught up with leftist extremists. On the other hand, they need to help support their ally, Brazil, in its quest to bolster its rural population and the to help support their ally, Brazil, in its quest to bolster its rural population and the overall economy. This debate has recently been pulled to the forefront once again as overall economy. This debate has recently been pulled to the forefront once again as a World Corporation tries to buy and deforest a large portion of land.a World Corporation tries to buy and deforest a large portion of land.

  In her first move to help obtain stability in this region, Jennie holds a conference with In her first move to help obtain stability in this region, Jennie holds a conference with the Brazilian government, the World Corporation, Greenpeace, and some grassroots the Brazilian government, the World Corporation, Greenpeace, and some grassroots organizations. She’s hoping to find a compromise that will satisfy all the parties organizations. She’s hoping to find a compromise that will satisfy all the parties involved.involved.

Hotspot Info: Deforestation

Buy Land

Invest Bio Tech Get Advice

See map

Ignore Hotspot

Subsidize forestation

Climate change

Textual Feedback

GlobalAction

No Advice

Ran out time

Textual Feedback

BarometerGoes up

Textual Feedback

Meeting in Rio

Textual Feedback

Agenda:

•Hotspot 1

•Hotspot 2

•View state of nation

•View State of world

US barometers

World barometers

Other Actor barometers

Compilationof player’s “History”

Stay on Hotspot

Return to Agenda

New options, updates on situation

Actiondelay

Barometer Goes down

Get advice: relevant information Get advice: relevant information

Decision: Subsidize Forestation (without raising taxes)Decision: Subsidize Forestation (without raising taxes)Actions: move on or communicate to Public OpinionActions: move on or communicate to Public Opinion

Decision: Talk to the Press Decision: Talk to the Press

After the conference you gave about the new spending on domestic and After the conference you gave about the new spending on domestic and global environment (forest) the barometer went upglobal environment (forest) the barometer went up

Click here to listen/see press reviews Click here to listen/see press reviews

Time is running out 04:59

Meanwhile, the war situation (in Meanwhile, the war situation (in the middle east) is getting grim the middle east) is getting grim

You decide to go back to your officeYou decide to go back to your office

Increasing US casualties Civil riots

User Interfaces alternatives for the “meeting User Interfaces alternatives for the “meeting room” with advisors room” with advisors

Interconnection across Hot Spots Interconnection across Hot Spots

You decide to deploy more troopsYou decide to deploy more troops

Counter-effect (action & reaction): Counter-effect (action & reaction): Terror AttackTerror Attack

People and markets are afraid (well-being index People and markets are afraid (well-being index and competitiveness index –stock market- go and competitiveness index –stock market- go down), and there is pressure for taking any sort of down), and there is pressure for taking any sort of course of action …course of action …

War on TerrorWar on Terror

Hotspot Info:Terror

Find Terror

Foster aDialogueGet Advice

Ignore Hotspot

Kill suspicious

Research

UN

Invest Weapons

No Advice

Meet w/ leaders

make global call

Deploy Troops

Close Borders

Boost Economy

Arms race

Agenda:

•Hotspot 1

•Hotspot 2

•View state of nation

•View State of world

US barometers

World barometers

Other Actor barometers

Compilationof player’s “History”

Stay on Hotspot

Return to Agenda

New options, updates on situation

reports

Report: Where are the terrorists?Report: Where are the terrorists?Choose one for interventionChoose one for intervention

Source: US State Department (2001)

Inspection vs. InterventionInspection vs. Intervention

Options and related outcomes: Options and related outcomes:

Diplomacy vs. PowerDiplomacy vs. Power Global Community, UN and USGlobal Community, UN and US Fostering Dialogue vs. more terrorFostering Dialogue vs. more terror Time vs. CostsTime vs. Costs Unilateralist or BilateralismUnilateralist or Bilateralism

Meanwhile, you are busy with the terrorism Meanwhile, you are busy with the terrorism and environmental agenda, you have to take and environmental agenda, you have to take care of your public (media) domestic supportcare of your public (media) domestic support

Time for Election !

HireConsultant

Travel internally

Get Advice

StartCampaign

PressConference

Media Barom up

Ad Session

DomesticPolicy

Delay Campaign

Mid West

California

BarometerGoes up

Textual Feedback

Health Care

Tax Cut

Agenda:

•Hotspot 1

•Hotspot 2

•View state of nation

•View State of world

US barometers

World barometers

Other Actor barometers

Compilationof player’s “History”

Stay on Hotspot

Fundraise

New options, updates on situation

Accept/rejectLobby

Barometer Goes up

Media/Internal pressure

Back to

HS

Back to HS

Opposition Barometer Goes down

G7 Summit

FosterDiplomacy

Stay in White House

Visualization of the US election:Visualization of the US election:Looking at reality differently?Looking at reality differently?

Maps of US Presidential Election 2004 (from C. Ortiz)Maps of US Presidential Election 2004 (from C. Ortiz)

““You only understand a thing when you understand it in many (3) ways” M. MinskyYou only understand a thing when you understand it in many (3) ways” M. Minsky

Alternatives of VisualizationAlternatives of Visualization

Be the president: choose optionsBe the president: choose options

Visualization of barometers, advisors, Visualization of barometers, advisors, options, story-lines, aestheticsoptions, story-lines, aesthetics

Standard Strategy GameStandard Strategy Game

Free-CivFree-Civ

Public Policy GamePublic Policy Game

Evaluating performance throughEvaluating performance through BarometersBarometers

Using the Competitiveness IndexUsing the Competitiveness Index(using profiles to manage actions and decisions) (using profiles to manage actions and decisions)

Domestic Approval (well being & media)Domestic Approval (well being & media)

What is the What is the hidden logichidden logic of Global Agenda? of Global Agenda?Simulating the Global Order …Simulating the Global Order …

Simplicity: Story-line (game tree) vs. Simplicity: Story-line (game tree) vs. self-contained sim-gameself-contained sim-game

Examples: sustainopolis Examples: sustainopolis (agentsheets), (agentsheets), 12th Sept12th Sept, , OsamaOsama quizzes quizzes/games/games

Summary, Conclusions & Summary, Conclusions & Next StepsNext Steps

Continue developing Game-Trees and a Continue developing Game-Trees and a robust (flexible) template (IAP)robust (flexible) template (IAP)

Choose interface (according to game-tree Choose interface (according to game-tree and scenarios)and scenarios)

Try self-contained sim/scenario: mock-ups Try self-contained sim/scenario: mock-ups in Flashin Flash

Build websiteBuild website Put together a Document connecting the Put together a Document connecting the

conceptual, educational and design conceptual, educational and design aspectsaspects

Global going global?Global going global?

NEXT STEPS (Oct-Dec)

1) Find specific information about user scenarios (energy, terror, migration, nuclear proliferation, book, theory, experts)

Conceptual Issues: - trade off

- unintended consequences- complexity- outside/inside

Themes: (migration/terror/energy/war/natural resource) - Migration: push/pull - situation in the border (mexico/US) [visualization]

- arrows of people movement (thick/thin lines) - look at the related paper

Complete storyboarding and user scenarios (specific mock-ups) 2) Try and iterate in GUIs in paper & flash (graphic designer) 3) Writing ad-hoc Document for funding 4) Build a website similar to Survivor (proof-of-concept)-    5) Games has to tackle issues of the real world and yet it has to

be fun, so develop a questionnaire/interview in order to complete (iterate) storyboard with real players (KSG’s

people) -      6) Meeting with Senior of Course 6 with experience in programming and game mechanics-      7) Writing a Proposal for Funding

8) Start Programming and building Computational Model