International Politics International Politics in the New Century: in the New Century:

Simulation, Interactive Gaming Simulation, Interactive Gaming & “Edutainment” & “Edutainment”

IAP 2005IAP 2005

GSSD GroupGSSD Group http://web.mit.edu/globalhttp://web.mit.edu/global

Department Department of Political Scienceof Political Science Technology & Development Program - MITTechnology & Development Program - MIT

July 200

© 2005 © 2005 MITMIT All rights reservedAll rights reserved

OverviewOverview Day 1:Day 1:

• Understanding how games can teach important Understanding how games can teach important Political Science conceptsPolitical Science concepts

• Making games make one think out possible Making games make one think out possible actions and consequences actions and consequences

Day 2:Day 2:• Looking at a situation from different perspectives Looking at a situation from different perspectives

can bring different insights –visualization can bring different insights –visualization • Hands on storyline work with Philip TanHands on storyline work with Philip Tan

Day 3:Day 3:• Hands on ArcGISHands on ArcGIS • Project updatesProject updates

Today’s ScheduleToday’s Schedule

10:00-10:30 Visualization & Science10:00-10:30 Visualization & Science 10.30-11:30 GIS Demonstration 10.30-11:30 GIS Demonstration 11:30-11:45 Brief Break 11:30-11:45 Brief Break 11:45-12:45 Student Project Updates11:45-12:45 Student Project Updates 12:45-1:00 Wrap Up12:45-1:00 Wrap Up

Research & Visualization in Research & Visualization in Political Science and Political Science and

International RelationsInternational Relations

Theory and PracticeTheory and Practice

Day 3: 10:00am-10:30amDay 3: 10:00am-10:30am

*Very* Brief Overview of *Very* Brief Overview of Academic Program in PoliSciAcademic Program in PoliSci

TheoryTheory• Understanding and predicting how Understanding and predicting how

“political reality has been/is/will be held “political reality has been/is/will be held together”together”

• Example—IR: Realism, Rationalism, Example—IR: Realism, Rationalism, Constructivism, LPT, etc… Constructivism, LPT, etc…

• More generally, political philosophyMore generally, political philosophy ResearchResearch

• Small & Large N analysisSmall & Large N analysis

Dominant Methodological ParadigmsDominant Methodological Paradigms

The “N” Civil War…The “N” Civil War… Small-N: The qualitative traditionSmall-N: The qualitative tradition

• Focus on qualitative generalization via narrativeFocus on qualitative generalization via narrative• Unit of analysis = case descriptionUnit of analysis = case description• Explanations outnumber observationsExplanations outnumber observations

Large-N: The quantitative traditionLarge-N: The quantitative tradition• Focus on statistical inference through numbersFocus on statistical inference through numbers• Unit of analysis = a coordinate in RUnit of analysis = a coordinate in Rnn (uni or multi- (uni or multi-

variate)variate)• Observations outnumber explanationsObservations outnumber explanations

Conventional Scientific ProgramConventional Scientific Program

STEP 1: LOGIC- Theory-model framing- Phenomena Identification- Hypothesis generation

STEP 2: ANALYSIS- Measurement and Instrumentation- Data gathering- Hypothesis testing

A View to ScienceA View to Science

Word to the wise (from Immanuel Kant)…Word to the wise (from Immanuel Kant)…• ““Experience without theory is blind, but theory without Experience without theory is blind, but theory without

experience is mere intellectual play.”experience is mere intellectual play.”• ““All our knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to All our knowledge begins with the senses, proceeds then to

the understanding, and ends with reason.”the understanding, and ends with reason.”

Political theory, case studies, and quantitative Political theory, case studies, and quantitative inference are indispensable inference are indispensable • But none of these directly arrive at But none of these directly arrive at understandingunderstanding,, comprehension through perceptioncomprehension through perception

Present Verdict on Present Verdict on Visualization in Political ScienceVisualization in Political Science

Lacking (aside from graphs and emerging Lacking (aside from graphs and emerging GIS), however…GIS), however…

Advocacy, in the social sciences in Advocacy, in the social sciences in general, for understanding geo & cyber general, for understanding geo & cyber spacesspaces

Within Political ScienceWithin Political Science• Ex: Understanding of geopolitics; iow, how Ex: Understanding of geopolitics; iow, how

geography of political units affect their political geography of political units affect their political behaviorbehavior

• For instance, how area, borders, and For instance, how area, borders, and geographic / sociopolitical features within them geographic / sociopolitical features within them influence trade, diplomacy, environment, influence trade, diplomacy, environment, migration, conflict, etc...migration, conflict, etc...

Where does Visualization fit in Political Where does Visualization fit in Political Science and International Relations?Science and International Relations?

More visualization, particularly to…More visualization, particularly to… Complement theory & empirical analysis w/visual Complement theory & empirical analysis w/visual

representations of simulated and measured datarepresentations of simulated and measured data Enable human-machine interface for perceiving Enable human-machine interface for perceiving

and interpreting deductive and inductive resultsand interpreting deductive and inductive results Facilitate feedback b/w theory and observationFacilitate feedback b/w theory and observation Explore alternative understandings of political Explore alternative understandings of political

phenomena, predicted or observed, by managing phenomena, predicted or observed, by managing computational complexity of research problemscomputational complexity of research problems

Discussion SessionDiscussion Session

Questions, Examples, & Questions, Examples, & ExercisesExercises

Survey: Visualization in Social SciencesSurvey: Visualization in Social Sciences

Geography & Urban PlanningGeography & Urban Planning• Geography: lead in viz (origin in geospatial Geography: lead in viz (origin in geospatial

representation of data); representation of data); interdisciplinaryinterdisciplinary [ [WBWB]]• Urban Planning: good use of geography for Urban Planning: good use of geography for

resource / environmental management & CAD for resource / environmental management & CAD for urban designurban design

Politics, Economics, & SociologyPolitics, Economics, & Sociology• PoliSci: Traditional Use of PoliSci: Traditional Use of GraphsGraphs in Statistics; in Statistics;

domestic political behavior and mediadomestic political behavior and media• Econ: mostly theoretical; graphs in econometrics Econ: mostly theoretical; graphs in econometrics

(most notable exception: viz of world trade)(most notable exception: viz of world trade)• Sociology: visualization of social / knowledge / Sociology: visualization of social / knowledge /

agent networksagent networks

Additional ExamplesAdditional Examples

Knowledge (content)Knowledge (content) DiscoveryDiscovery• WebBrainWebBrain / / KartooKartoo• InxightInxight • Smart Money – Map of the MarketSmart Money – Map of the Market

Scientific (data) VisualizationScientific (data) Visualization• NOAA Air Resources LabNOAA Air Resources Lab• NASA Earth ObservatoryNASA Earth Observatory• UNDP: Human Development in AnimationUNDP: Human Development in Animation• CIESIN ESI MapsCIESIN ESI Maps

Geographic Information Geographic Information SystemsSystems

An IntroductionAn Introduction

Day 3: 10:30am-11:30amDay 3: 10:30am-11:30am

What is GIS?What is GIS?

Etc… Etc…

Why GIS?Why GIS?

Spatial QuerySpatial Query Measurement of Measurement of

Area, Length, Area, Length, VolumeVolume

Don't Duplicate Don't Duplicate EffortEffort

Change Change Cartographic Cartographic ProjectionProjection

Complex ModelingComplex Modeling Create Seamless Create Seamless

DatabaseDatabase One Tool, Local to One Tool, Local to

Global UseGlobal Use Manage Geospatial Manage Geospatial

DataMap MakingDataMap Making

From August, Peter (Dept. of Natural Resources, Univ. of Rhode Island)

GIS: Learning by Example & GIS: Learning by Example & PracticePractice

Learning from GISLearning from GIS• US Electoral US Electoral

CartogramsCartograms Working with GISWorking with GIS

• ArcGIS tutorialArcGIS tutorial

The “Red vs. Blue States” Affair:The “Red vs. Blue States” Affair:a Case Studya Case Study

Conventional US 2004 Election Conventional US 2004 Election map…map…

•Initial impressions??

•From Gastner, Shalizi, and Newman, University of Michigan

Red vs. Blue continuedRed vs. Blue continued

Let’s take a look at Population:Let’s take a look at Population:

Red vs. Blue continuedRed vs. Blue continued

Or the Electoral College votes:Or the Electoral College votes:

Red vs. Blue continuedRed vs. Blue continued

Counties “won” by each party (go Counties “won” by each party (go Bush?)Bush?)

Red vs. Blue continuedRed vs. Blue continued

How populated are those counties How populated are those counties again…again…

Red vs. Blue continuedRed vs. Blue continued

Behind the color divide: false Behind the color divide: false dichotomy through binary dichotomy through binary chromatography?chromatography?

Red vs. Blue continuedRed vs. Blue continued Better stop the presses!Better stop the presses!

• What’s the story then? (Bush still won…)What’s the story then? (Bush still won…)

Yet another perspectiveYet another perspective(Penn State GeoVISTA)(Penn State GeoVISTA)

Tutorial: Working with US Elections Data on Tutorial: Working with US Elections Data on ArcGIS!ArcGIS!

- - Linking Map Layers to Data TablesLinking Map Layers to Data Tables

- Choosing Variable, Symbology & Height Options- Choosing Variable, Symbology & Height Options

Red vs. Blue (one more time)Red vs. Blue (one more time)

County pop.& wins (no state EC results) State EC & county wins (no pop)

GIS in GamingGIS in Gaming

Political Machine – The GamePolitical Machine – The Game Second Tutorial: brief exploration of Second Tutorial: brief exploration of

game demo game demo • familiarizing with map to explore familiarizing with map to explore

political landscapepolitical landscape

Brief BreakBrief Break

Day 3: 11:30am-11:45amDay 3: 11:30am-11:45am

Global Agenda Global Agenda WorkshopWorkshop

Final Project Discussion Final Project Discussion

Day 3: 11:45am-12:45pmDay 3: 11:45am-12:45pm

Example of a Hotspot StorylineExample of a Hotspot Storyline

Power Crisis in USPower Crisis in US

Gives a feel of how 1Gives a feel of how 1stst person person perspective can make you perspective can make you understand the situationunderstand the situation

Final Project ideasFinal Project ideas

An unexpected event takes place in An unexpected event takes place in your country…your country…

Time is running out 09:59

Internal Barometer is LOW

Sketches/Mock Sketches/Mock ups of interfaces ups of interfaces for the given for the given storylinestoryline

Game TreeGame Tree

War getting worse -War getting worse -due to oil resourcesdue to oil resources

You decide to go back to your officeYou decide to go back to your office

Increasing US casualties

Allies show unease

Civil riots

More Insurvencies

User Interfaces User Interfaces alternatives for the alternatives for the “meeting room” “meeting room” with advisorswith advisors

You decide to deploy more troopsYou decide to deploy more troops

Counter-effect (action & reaction): Counter-effect (action & reaction): Terror AttackTerror Attack

People and markets are afraid (well-being index People and markets are afraid (well-being index and competitiveness index –stock market- go and competitiveness index –stock market- go down), and there is pressure for taking any sort of down), and there is pressure for taking any sort of course of action …course of action …

Fight Insurgencies – Fight ‘Terror’Fight Insurgencies – Fight ‘Terror’

Hotspot Info:Terror

Find Terror

Foster aDialogueGet Advice

Ignore Hotspot

Kill suspicious

Research

UN

Invest Weapons

No Advice

Meet w/ leaders

make global call

Deploy Troops

Close Borders

Boost Economy

Arms race

Agenda:

•Hotspot 1

•Hotspot 2

•View state of nation

•View State of world

US barometers

World barometers

Other Actor barometers

Compilationof player’s “History”

Stay on Hotspot

Return to Agenda

New options, updates on situation

reports

Report: Insurgents? Terrorists? Report: Insurgents? Terrorists? Choose location for ActionChoose location for Action

Source: US State Department (2001)

Inspection vs. InterventionInspection vs. Intervention

Options and related outcomes: Options and related outcomes:

Diplomacy vs. PowerDiplomacy vs. Power Global Community, UN and USGlobal Community, UN and US Fostering Dialogue vs. more terrorFostering Dialogue vs. more terror Time vs. CostsTime vs. Costs Unilateralist or BilateralismUnilateralist or Bilateralism

Course Wrap-UpCourse Wrap-Up

Day 3: 12:45am-1:00pmDay 3: 12:45am-1:00pm

Take AwaysTake Aways How can we understand the world in How can we understand the world in

different ways?different ways?• IR & Politics Education using GamingIR & Politics Education using Gaming

Digital simulations and gamesDigital simulations and games Entertainment can help educational goalsEntertainment can help educational goals

• Visualization as an important toolVisualization as an important tool• Final Project:Final Project:

Creating Storyline makes you analyze the global Creating Storyline makes you analyze the global impact of actionsimpact of actions

Getting concepts across to Getting concepts across to othersothers shows you how to shows you how to draw conclusions from the world around youdraw conclusions from the world around you

Think about effective visualization to communicateThink about effective visualization to communicate Create a tool for others to learn from Create a tool for others to learn from

Interactive Learning & Interactive Learning & Visualization Resources at MITVisualization Resources at MIT

Nazli ChoucriNazli Choucri• Course on Course on Computational PoliticsComputational Politics next year next year• Possible UROP opportunitiesPossible UROP opportunities• IAP course next yearIAP course next year

Philip Tan (CMS/Education Arcade)Philip Tan (CMS/Education Arcade)• philip@mit.eduphilip@mit.edu

Henry Jenkins (CMS)Henry Jenkins (CMS)• Courses – Game Theory and DesignCourses – Game Theory and Design

Mitch Resnick (Media Lab)Mitch Resnick (Media Lab)• Courses in MASCourses in MAS

Sherry Turkle (Science, Technology and Society)Sherry Turkle (Science, Technology and Society)• Initiative on Technology and the SelfInitiative on Technology and the Self

Seymore Pappert (Emeritus Professor/MAS)Seymore Pappert (Emeritus Professor/MAS) Eric Klopfir (Teacher Education Program)Eric Klopfir (Teacher Education Program)

• 11.127, 11.25211.127, 11.252 Daniel Sheenan (GIS Lab)Daniel Sheenan (GIS Lab)

• Workshops on visualization: http://libraries.mit.edu/gis Workshops on visualization: http://libraries.mit.edu/gis

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Eric Klopfer (TEP)Eric Klopfer (TEP) Philip TanPhilip Tan Daniel SheenanDaniel Sheenan Lisa SweeneyLisa Sweeney Tobie WeinerTobie Weiner Kerry O'BrienKerry O'Brien