global economic crisis and the emerging markets jonathan doh manny nunez jonathan p. doh july 6,...

Global Economic Crisis and theEmerging Markets

Jonathan DohManny Nunez

Jonathan P. DohJuly 6, 2009

Outline of our Session

Key global trendsand the riseof emerging

markets

Emerging markets business systemsand relationships

Emerging markets and the

economic crisis

Emerging markets aslaboratoriesof innovation

>3

1. 11/9/89: when the walls came down and the windows went up

2. 8/9/95: when Netscape went public3. Workflow Software: let’s do lunch – have

your application talk to my application4. Open sourcing: self-organizing

collaborative communities5. Outsourcing: Y2K6. Offshoring: running with gazelles, eating

with lions 7. Supply-chaining: eating sushi in

Arkansas 8. In-sourcing: what the guys in funny

brown shirts are really doing 9. Informing: Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web

Search10. The Steroids: digital, mobile, personal,

and virtual (…wireless the icing on the cake)

Is the world flat?

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A “spiky”world: population

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A “spiky”world: economic activity

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A “spiky”world: innovation

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>7

• From your perspective, is the world:

• Round?

• Flat?

• Spiky?

Reflection question

>7

>8

Changing balance of economic power Shift in World GDP

2005 % World GDP

21%

21%

35%

3%8%

4%2% 6%

US EU

Asia Russia

Latin America Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa Other

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

>9


2010 % World GDP

20%

20%

3%

8%4% 2% 3%

40%

US EU

Asia Russia




>10

2020 % World GDP

18%

19%

3%

8%

5% 2% 3%

42%

US EU

Asia Russia





>11

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

United States China Japan India Germany UnitedKingdom

2005 GDP (US $bn at PPP)

Changing balance of economic power At present, U.S. by far largest GDP

>11


>12

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

United States China Japan India Germany UnitedKingdom

GDP 2020 (US$bn at PPP)

Changing balance of economic power China surpasses U.S. in 2020 (ppp basis)

>12


>13

Relative size of Big 4 economiesmarket exchange rates

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

4000020

06

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

US

China

India

Japan

Constant 2004 US $bn

>14

Relative size of Big 4 economiesPPP exchange rates

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

6000020

06

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

US

China

India

Japan

Constant 2004 US $bn at PPPs

>15

Changing balance of economic power China and India propel growth in Asia

26.7

15.912.2

2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

China U.S. India Brazil Russia Indonesia SouthKorea

U.K.

Contribution to Global Growth (2006-2020, %)

>15


>16

Changing balance of economic powerGreater Asia will generate 67% of global jobs 2005-20

New Jobs in the World Economy (% of world net increase 2005-20)

2% 10%

14%

29%

23%

19%

3%

U.S. EU25 Latin America China India Other Asia Other


>16

>17

Changing balance of economic powerHigh (but slowing) GDP growth in China…

Real GDP Growth (%)

7.6

6

54.5

4 3.8 3.83.4

2.82.82.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50

China

U.S.

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Changing balance of economic power …Makes China largest (absolute) economic power by 2040

China vs. U.S.: GDP

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China

U.S.

2040-2045

>18

>19

Changing balance of economic power But growth is uneven

Rural and urban real incomes in China, 1990=100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Rural

Urban

>19

>20

Emerging countries’ share of GDP

>20

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Changing global demographicsThe global population is aging

8% 9%10%

12%13%

14%16%

19%

23%

25%26%

4% 4% 4% 4% 4%5%

6%8%

10%

13%

15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Developed World Developing World

Sourc

Percent of PopulationAged 65 & Over: History and UN Projection

Source: UN (2005)

>21

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Changing global demographics Fertility rates falling below replacement in G-7

3.3

2.9 2.8

3.6

2.0

2.5 2.5

2.01.9

1.7 1.51.3 1.3 1.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Life

time

Birt

hs p

er W

oman

1960-1965 2000-2005

Total Fertility Rate,

Source: UN (2005)

2.1

>22

>23

Changing global demographics Life expectancy growing in G-7

77.378.3 78.6

79.4 79.7 80.081.9

63.9

66.0

69.1

66.567.5

68.9 69.2

60

65

70

75

80

85

US UK Germany France Canada Italy Japan

Yea

rs

1950-1955 2000-2005

Life Expectancy at Birth, by Country

Source: UN (2005)

>23

>24

Changing global demographics Some G-7 aging faster than others

12%

16%

13%

16%

19%20% 20%20%

24%

27% 27%

31%

39% 39%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

US UK Canada France Germany Italy Japan

2005 2050

Percent of the PopulationAged 65 or Over, by Country

Source: UN (2005)

>24

>25

Men Women

50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

Year: 1960

Median Age:29.6

Inversion of age pyramid1960 Distribution in Developed World

>26

Men Women

Year: 2050

Median Age:46.4

Inversion of age pyramid2050 Distribution in Developed World

50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90-94

100+

>27

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112

1950

ChinaSoviet UnionIndiaUnited StatesJapanIndonesiaGermanyBrazilUnited KingdomItalyFranceBangladesh

2000

ChinaIndiaUnited StatesIndonesiaBrazilRussian Fed.PakistanBangladeshJapanNigeriaMexicoGermany

2050

IndiaChinaUnited StatesPakistanIndonesiaNigeriaBangladeshBrazilCongoEthiopiaMexicoPhilippines

12 Largest Countries Ranked by Population

Source: UNDP (2005)

Changing global demographicsDeveloping countries on the rise

In 2008 Deloitte found that "medical tourism" is a hot trend among U.S. health care consumers Nearly 40 % said they would travel outside the country for medical treatment, if the quality was comparable and the cost was cut in half Market drivers for medical tourism: •Cost savings; •Comparable or better quality health care; •Shorter waiting periods thus quicker access to care World medical tourism market is estimated to have reached $60 billion in 2008, and grow to $100 billion by 2010. Over 35 countries are serving around 1 million medical tourists annuallyMedical Tourism Video

Assumptions:• In 2007, approximately 750,000 Americans traveled outbound for medical care. That number will increase to 6 million by 2010. Therefore the growth rate from 2007 to 2010 is 100% for the base estimate.• After 2010, the growth rate will begin to fall due to supply capacity constraints in foreign countries.• Upper/Lower bound estimates assume the growth rate is higher/lower than the base case estimate.•Source: 2008 Deloitte Development LLC

Global trends in health careMedical tourism on the rise

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Global trends in health careMedical tourism on the rise

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Reflection question

• Which aspects of the key global trends outlined here do you believe are the most meaningful and long-lasting?

• Which aspects of the demographic trends are most profound?

• Do you believe the projections re: growth of global health care tourism are realistic?

>31>31

Emerging markets essentials

1. What is an emerging market?

2. What are these markets emerging from?

3. What are these markets emerging to?

4. What signals help identify a country as emerging?

5. What signals suggest a country is submerging?

>32>32

Emerging market: one definition

• Gross National Income (GNI)/capita (US$):

$1,001 (Lower) to $9,999 (Upper)

Excludes countries:

>$10,000 GNI/capita – deemed developed market

<$1,000 GNI/capita – deemed GAVI/developing market

• Source: World Bank

Definition

Rationale

• World Bank definition of GNI:

Used 3-year average of exchange rates to ‘smooth’ out annual fluctuations due to policies and interventions

Classified countries in low-, middle- and high-income categories

• Source: World Bank

>33>33

Developing countries v. emerging markets

• High risk for foreign investors

• Economically underdeveloped

• Technologically inferior

• Low purchasing power

• Host government restrictions

• Few significant opportunities for foreign business

Developing Countries (prior to 2000)

Emerging Markets (Since 2000)

• Risks increasingly manageable

• Faster income growth than developed countries

• Technologically competitive

• Increasing purchasing power

• Host government liberalization

• Greater opportunities for foreign business: BOP, OS

>34>34

My perspective on emerging markets

• Developing countries “on the move”

• Consistent pattern of policy reform• Privatisation (e.g. sale of SOEs)

• Market liberalisation (e.g. trade, regulatory)

• Monetary and Fiscal policy (independent Central Bank; efficient tax system)

• Resultant record of sustainable growth• Faster than average annual growth

• Growth in private (often foreign) capital)

• Increased trade and FDI

• Sustained social progress• Improved education, health care, etc

>35>35

Types of emerging markets

• BRIC: Big emerging markets• China and India: “Giants”

• Others: Brazil, Russia, Mexico

• “Second tier” but coming on fast• Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand

• “Graduates”• South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore?

• “Transition” economies• Poland, Russia, Hungary

• “Other”• Turkey, Middle East economies

>36>36

BRIC Economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China + Mexico?)

• Fastest growing, dynamic, highest potential EMs• Leaders in respective regions• Between 2000-2007, contributed 28% of global growth• More than 15% of global FDI and trade; 30% FX reserves• China overtakes US by 2040; India beats Japan by 2033

• Significant similarities among each• All faced substantial acceleration in growth, democratic

political reform, market-oriented reforms manifest in FDI and some macroeconomic and reform setbacks

• Substantial differences as well• Each has had difference experience in pace, breadth,

depth of reform, with some now experiencing some backtracking in their commitment to pol/econ reform



markets



economic crisis


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1. Institutional systems are a critical and overlooked variable in global markets

2. Different countries look differently across these measures

3. Important implications for strategy

Emerging markets: Institutional systems

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Institutional systems: Political/social systems

• Political Accountability: free/fair elections

• Political Accountability: independent judiciary

• Government regulatory interference

• Protection of private property rights

• Independence of quasi-judiciary agencies

• Religious, linguistic, ethnic, geographic tensions

• Civil society and NGOs and Corruption

• Development/independent finance regulator

Source: Khanna, T., Palepu, K., & Sinha, J. 2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets. Harvard Business Review, June

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>40

• Receptivity to/restrictions on FDI

• Local content/ownership requirements?

• Presence/quality of foreign intermediaries

• Support/constraints to new venture development

• Restrictions on portfolio investment/FX

• Import tariffs on intermediate/capital goods

• Participation in FTAs/EIAs

• Free flow of executives in/out of country

• Financial liberalization (WTO/unilateral)

Institutional systems: Openness


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• Development of transportation infrastructure

• Development of distribution systems/networks

• Existence and sophistication of market research

• Availability of raw materials/dependability of suppliers

• Government restrictions on FDI

• Nature/quality of retail/credit system

• Consumer receptivity to new products/services

• Ability to develop network of branches or other financial distribution systems

Institutional systems: Product markets/distribution


>41

>42

Institutional systems: Labor markets

• Educational Development

• Employee mobility

• Quality of training/management development

• Pay/performance and motivation

• Receptivity to foreign managers

• Laws and regulations on labor reduction

• Consumer receptivity to new products/services

• Ability to deploy foreign nationals and hire/fire local employees


>42

>43

Institutional systems: Capital markets

• Development of banking/insurance/ securities

• Ownership/transparency of institutions

• Sophistication/liquidity of debt/equity markets

• Reliability/quality of information on markets

• Corporate governance/board independence

• Regulatory effectiveness

• Takeover/bankruptcy laws


>43

• Shape: Institutional system in flux may be subject to shaping (China/financial services, health care?)

• Adapt: Established and well-developed institutional system suggests adaptation (Chile, telecom)

• Withdraw: Inferior and unpredictable institutional system suggests withdrawal (Venezuela, Bolivia oil and gas)

Emerging market institutions:Shape, adapt, or withdraw?

>44Source: Khanna, T., Palepu, K., & Sinha, J. 2005. Strategies to fit Emerging Markets. Harvard Business Review, June

Reflection Question

• Which institutional category is most important for the industry or area you cover?

• Which specific aspect of that institutional category is most important?

• Can you think of a specific example of how a firm “shaped” and emerging markets institutional environment?

>46

Global-local relationships

• Global companies seek partners with local knowledge, distribution, government connections

• Local companies seek avenues into global economy and seek foreign partners with technology, managerial expertise, brand

• Local governments seek relationships that capture employment, technology and other direct/indirect benefits and often serve as intermediaries

Adapted from authors’ reseearch and Adarkar, A., Adil, A., Ernst, D., and Vaish, P. Emerging market alliances: Must they be win-lose? McKinsey Quarterly, 4: 120–137.

>46

>47

Four possible outcomes of Global-local alliance

Power shift toward local

partner

SustainablePower balance

Power collision

Power shift toward global

partner

Initial alliance

>47

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Global-local relationships: Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions

• Extent to which less powerful members of institutions and organisations accept that power is distributed unequally• High power distance countries: people blindly

obey orders of superiors, centralised organisation structures

• Low power distance countries: flatter and decentralised organisation structures, smaller ratio of supervisors

Power Distance

Power Distance

Adapted from Hofstede, G. H. 2001. Culture’s consequences: Comparing values, behaviors, institutions, and organizations across nations, 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

>48

>49

• Extent to which people feel threatened by ambiguous situations and have created institutions to avoid such situations• High uncertainty avoidance countries: people

have high need for security, structured organisational activities, more written rules, less risk taking

• Low uncertainty avoidance countries: more willing to accept risks associated with unknown, less structured organisational activities, fewer written rules, more risk taking by managers

Power Distance

Power Distance

Uncertainty Avoidance




>49

>50

• Individualism: Tendency of people to look after themselves/family

• Countries high in individualism: support work ethic, greater individual initiative, merit promotions

• Collectivism: Tendency of people to belong to groups or collectives and to look after each other

• Countries high in collectivism: less support of work ethic, less individual initiative, seniority promotions

Power Distance

Power Distance



Individualism/Collectivism


Global-local relationships:

Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions


>50

>51

• Masculinity: dominant social values are success, money, things

• Countries high in masculinity: great importance on earnings, recognition, advancement, challenge, and wealth.

• Femininity: a culture in which the dominate social values are caring for others and the quality of life

• Countries high in femininity: importance on cooperation, group decision, employment security.

Power Distance

Power Distance





Masculinity/Femininity

Masculinity/Femininity



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Cultural rankings of emerging markets, US and EU

PowerDistance

UncertaintyAvoidance

Individualism(Collectivism) Masculinity

China 80 40 20 66

Philippines 94 44 32 64

Malaysia 104 36 26 50

India 77 40 48 56

Czech Republic 57 74 58 57

Hungary 46 82 55 88

Poland 68 93 60 64

Slovakia 57 74 58 57

Mexico 81 82 38 69

Brazil 69 76 38 49

South Africa 49 49 65 63

US 40 46 91 62

EU (avg) 45 74 61 59



markets



economic crisis


Global pushback against business

>54

Global pushback against business

>55

• Prior to crisis, some developing/emerging markets questioning Western economic models (“Washington consensus)

• Trend especially apparent in Latin America (Venezuala, Ecuador and Bolivia)

• China, others blame crisis on U.S. and capital markets model of finance

• In general, however, emerging markets doing better than developed countries throughout crisis with some exceptions (Central/Eastern Europe)

In U.S., trust in business at lowest levelincluding post-Enron

56

Enron, the dot-com bust and September

11

20 point drop

U.S. is the new Europe

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer 2009

Trust in leaders

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Average Across All Countries Surveyed

NGO leaders

Leaders at the U.N.

Spiritual/religious leaders

Leaders of Western Europe

Managers of global economy

Managers of national economy

Executives of MNCs

Leaders of the U.S.A.

52

42

41

36

36

35

33

27

Trust in Leaders: Percentage Saying “A Lot” and “Some Trust”

Percentage Saying “A Lot” and “Some Trust”

>57


Technology most trusted industry sector globally

58


Global economic crisis indicators

2009 down turn in worldGDP and trade

Global growth est. cut by 2.6% points by World bank March 2009 vs. November 2008 forecast

Global Economic Prospects 2009 Forecast Update, World Bank, March 30, 2009, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTGEP2009/Resources/5530448-1238466339289/GEP-Update-March30.pdf

>59

Real GDP growth forecast (March 2009)(percent change from previous year)

Source: World Bank. Notes: a: GDP in 2000 constant dollars, 2000 prices and market exchange rates. b: GDP measured at 2000 PPP weights. c. GDP figures for South Asia refer to fiscal years (FY). The FY runs from Jul-1 through Jun-30 in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and from Apr-1 through Mar-31 in India. Due to reporting practices, where FY2007/08 is reported in 2008 for Pakistan and Bangladesh and in 2007 for India, there is an illusion of a lag in the impact of the global crisis upon Pakistan and Bangladesh compared with India.>60

Global GDP estimated to have fallen by 5 percent in the fourth quarter (annualized), led by advanced economies, which contracted by 7 percent.

GDP declined in the fourth quarter by around 6 percent in both the U.S. and Euro area, plummeted at a post-war record of13 percent in Japan.

Growth also plunged across a broad swath of emerging economies, reflecting the confluence of weakening external demand, tightening financing constraints, and plunging commodity prices.

Source: IMF Report: Global Economic Policies and Prospects, Group of Twenty Meeting of the Ministers and Central Bank Governors, March 13–14, 2009, London, U.K.

Global economic crisis indicators

>61

Vulnerabilities of European banks with substantial exposures to Central/Eastern Europe

The vulnerabilities of banks with substantial exposures to Central and Eastern Europe are raising perceptions of sovereign risk in advanced economies. Many banks’ exposures are high relative to their home country GDP. Austrian banks’ exposures, for example, amount to about 75 percent of Austria’s GDP.

Other countries with relatively high exposures to emerging Europe include Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden.


Vulnerability indicators by region Current account balance

Over the past few years, current account balances have become more divergent. Emerging Europe has seen large and sustained deficits, while many countries in Asia, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have shifted to surpluses— partly because of the commodity price boom.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2009, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/index.htm

Economic IndicatorsRetail Sales


Economic IndicatorsCommodity Prices and Inflation


The Collapse Of Emerging-Market Currencies

Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Lessons of the Financial Crisis, Council Special Report No. 45, March 2009, http://www.cfr.org/publication/by_type/special_report.html

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (historical data for 1 yr prior to May 18, 2009)

Source: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF, MarketWatch, 19 May 2009, http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/EEM/charts



markets



economic crisis

Emerging markets aslaboratories

of innovation

>69

Emerging markets as laboratories of innovation

• ‘Strategy is revolution; everything else is tactics’” – Gary Hamel

• Challenging dominant logic: “New game, rules”

• Take any industry - three kinds of companies: 1. rule makers - incumbents that built the industry, e.g.

United Airlines or IBM

2. rule takers - companies that pay homage to the industrial ‘lords’, e.g. US Airways or Olivetti

3. rule breakers - industry revolutionaries intent on overturning order, e.g. Southwest or Dell

• For companies in categories 1,2; emerging markets provide laboratory to move to 3

>69

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Innovation in emerging markets

• One innovation strategy for emerging markets focuses on the “Base of the Pyramid”

• To date, focus has been on upper and middle-class consumers in emerging markets

• BOP shifts emphasize to larger segment of lower income consumers that have been largely ignored

• Provides opportunity for integration of economic strategy and dramatic growth through product and process innovation

>70

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The world pyramid

Tier 1

Tiers 2- 3

Tier 4

Purchasing PowerParity in U.S. dollars

Population in millions

>$20,000

$2,000-20,000

<$2,000

200-300

600-800

5500

>71

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Distribution of income and MNC strategy Traditional and emerging focus for India

10-20 million, Rich

PPP> $15,000, 70-100 m

PPP $ 5-15,000, 150m

PPP $2-15,000, 200m

PPP > $2000, 600m

Some MNCs?

LocalFirms

TraditionalMNC BusinessModel

FutureOpportunity?

Source: CK Prahalad

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Innovation via Base of the Pyramid (BOP)

• Pursuing the “base” forces rethinking of conventional wisdom about:

• Technology and business models

• Scale and profitability

• Price-performance relationships

• Productivity and capital efficiency

• Sustainable development

>73

>74

BOP: P&G

• Created Nutristar: children’s powdered health drink• initially failed in Philippines

• re-launched in Venezuela with help of NGOs, USAID,

• PuR: water filtration system for low-income households marketed as single serving sachets • contain same ingredients as municipal water systems

• Each sachet is treats up to 10 liters of water

• One sachet added to a bucket of dirty water forces all bacteria, viruses and pollutants to bottom

>74

>75

BOP: P&G in China• Former view: make best, then cut cost; now

“cheaper and better”

• Product adaptation (using local R&D) for middle-low-income• Basic toothpaste using salt as cleaning agent

• Expand sales of Tide beyond top 8% consumers by creating simpler formulas - Tide Clean White – no softener because unnecessary for hand washing

• Sell diapers to consumer who did not see need; make attractive by getting more hours of absorbency

• Greater China revenues up from $1.1 billion in 2000 to $2.5 billion in 2007; 6% of total

>75

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Tata’s Nano

• 2009: Tata unveils world's cheapest car - 100,000 rupees (£1250)

• Vehicle aimed at Indian and other developing countries where car ownership is low; competes against bicycles and motorcycles

• Engine 600-800cc mark; goal is to sell 1 million units within 5 years

>76

>77

Tata’s Nano

• Ratan Tata told his designers that the vehicle “must not be seen as stripped- down version of a normal car”

• To keep costs low, many parts made of plastic and other composites

• Car to be sold in kit form, with final assembly of the vehicles to be completed in rural workshops in India

>77

>78

Tata’s Nano

>78

>79

GE in China

• GE launching $6 billion health-care initiative that called "healthymagination

• Resetting GE's health-care business toward rural and emerging markets and priorities of the Obama Administration

• Develop and deploy low-cost equipment, such as the portable ultrasounds already being used in developing regions

• Focus on services that help hospitals become more efficient and on health-care information technology

>79

>80

GE in China

• Bulk of new spending will be $3 billion R&D development investment over the next six years into affordable health-care equipment designed for underserved populations in emerging markets

• 1/2 of unit's spending for products/services that expand health care/reduce costs by 15%

• GE will launch 50+ basic products tailored to rural or emerging markets, such as the lightweight portable EKGs machines the company has developed for India.

• "You can deal with change, or you can get out in front of it," says GE Healthcare CEO John Dineen

• GE Video

>80

Reflection Question

• What are the long-term prospects for MNEs from developed countries wishing to succeed in emerging markets? Which firms from which industries will thrive and which will suffer?

• What are the long-term prospects for emerging markets MNEs wishing to succeed in developed country markets? Which firms from which industries will thrive and which will suffer?



markets



economic crisis

Emerging markets aslaboratories

of innovation

global economic crisis and the emerging markets jonathan doh manny nunez jonathan p. doh july 6,...

Documents

bn slide

ppps slide

developed world slide

global economic crisis

economic activity

economist intelligence

world gdp source

global population