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Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 Statista & Atheneum Expert Survey

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Page 1: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019Statista & Atheneum Expert Survey

Page 2: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Atheneum and Statista have partnered to create one of the world's largest economic sentiment indicators based on experts’ opinion. The study utilizes Atheneum’s global network of business professionals, who provide their expert view on the economy in their respective countries.

Every quarter, approximately 2,000 experts from 23 countries around the world report on their view of the current economic situation, as well as on their expectations for economic development in their respective countries over the next 6 months. Their evaluation considers the overall economic situation as well as seven specific areas.

By combining balanced views on the current and future economy the Global Economic Outlook Scores provide a holistic picture of perceived economic change.

Introduction

The Global Economic Outlook Scores provide a holistic view on the next six months of development

Q3

Method Online

Fieldwork 03.09.2019 – 16.09.2019

No. of responses 1,725

Page 3: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

3

Page 4: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

4

Balanced satisfaction and outlook scores1 in %

Economic viewpoint Q3 2019

1: Weighted net satisfaction and outlook scores (see page 13 for method)“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; Single Pick; Base: n= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

In general, experts are pessimistic about the next 6 months, particularly in Europe

-100

-50

0

50

100

-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Switzerland

United States

Balanced Satisfaction Score (Today)

Canada

Turkey

Ba

lan

ced

Ou

tlo

ok

Sco

re (

Fu

ture

)

Brazil

Mexico

China

United Kingdom

Poland

Belgium

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

RussiaSpain

Sweden

India

South Korea

Indonesia

Japan

Saudi Arabia

Australia

Glo

ba

l Sa

tisf

act

ion

= 3

2%

Global Outlook = -5%

Americas Europe Asia & Middle East Oceania

Dissatisfied, optimistic

Dissatisfied, pessimistic

Satisfied, optimistic

Satisfied, pessimistic

Page 5: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

-100

-50

0

50

100

Global Balance Satisfaction Score (Today)

-5%

Global Balanced Outlook Score (Future)

32%

5

Global current satisfaction, alongside global outlook over the next 6 months1

Global Economic Outlook Scores Q3 2019

Experts current satisfaction switches abruptly to concern when considering the next 6 months

1: Weighted net scores by each countries GDP (see page 13 for method)“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; Single Pick; Base: n= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Page 6: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

-100 -50 0 50 100

Europe

Global BalancedSatisfaction

Americas

Asia & Middle East

Oceania

Balanced Satisfaction Scores1 in %In general, experts are satisfied with their current economic situation

6

Summary

The Global Balanced Satisfaction Score this quarter is 32% and all regions show a positive Balanced Satisfaction Score. The America’s satisfaction, driven by North American experts' opinion, are the most positive with 44%. While Europe is least with a score of 15%.

1: Weighted net satisfaction scores (see page 13 for method)Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

32%

44%

33%

24%

15%

Page 7: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

7

Q3 Satisfaction with current economic situation1

Balanced Satisfaction Score Q3 (1/2)

1: Weighted net satisfaction scores (see page 13 for method)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas in …?” Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Western Europe have the highest Balanced Satisfaction Scores for Q3

Country Satisfaction

Switzerland 90%

Netherlands 89%

Germany 69%

United States 58%

Poland 51%

Canada 51%

Sweden 48%

Indonesia 45%

China 43%

France 31%

Japan 28%

Australia 24%

India 23%

Saudi Arabia 22%

Belgium 22%

Spain -3%

South Korea -27%

Russia -33%

United Kingdom -34%

Italy -44%

Mexico -49%

Brazil -51%

Turkey -72%

Dissatisfied Not includedSatisfied

Page 8: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

8

Satisfaction with current economic situation1

Balanced Satisfaction Scores (2/2)

Summary

In general, satisfaction has declined since the previous quarter. Belgium and the U.K. saw their Balanced Satisfaction Score fall the furthest. With Belgian experts score dropping from 59% to 22% and the U.K. seeing their score fall from -3% to -33%.

On the other hand, Canadian and French business experts show the most improvement in their satisfaction for the current economic situation. Moving from a Balanced Satisfaction Score of 45% to 51% and 26% to 31%, respectively.

1: Weighted net satisfaction scores (see page 13 for method)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the overall economic situation of …”; “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas in …?” Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

In general, satisfaction has declined since the previous quarter

5 change >= 10 percentage points

6 change <= 10 percentage points

Region Country Q2 Q3 Difference ChangeAmericas United States 73% 58% 6

Canada 45% 51%

Mexico -45% -49%

Brazil -51% -51%Europe Switzerland 93% 90%

Netherlands 89% 89%

Germany 84% 69% 6

Poland 66% 51% 6

Sweden 60% 48% 6

France 26% 31%

Belgium 59% 22% 6

Spain 10% -3% 6

Russia -20% -33% 6

UK -3% -34% 6

Italy -45% -44%

Turkey -69% -72%Asia & Middle East

Indonesia 43% 45%

China 58% 43% 6

Japan 32% 28%

India 51% 23% 6

Saudi Arabia 46% 22% 6

South Korea -17% -27%Oceania Australia 51% 24% 6

-16%

-15%

-15%

6%

5%

-3%

0%

-5%

-4%

0%

-12%

-37%

-13%

-13%

-31%

1%

-3%

2%

-15%

-28%

-24%

-10%

-27%

Page 9: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Experts around the world are worried about the next 6 months

9

Summary

The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months. This is especially noticeable in Europe and Oceania, which score -15% and -22% respectively. However, experts in Asia, do show a slightly positive Balanced Outlook Score of 6%.

1: Weighted net outlook scores (see page 13 for method)Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Balanced Outlook Scores1

-100 -50 0 50 100

Oceania

Global BalancedSatisfaction

Americas

Asia & Middle East

Europe

-5%

-7%

6%

-15%

-22%

Page 10: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

10

Balanced Outlook Scores (1/2)

1: Weighted net outlook scores (see page 13 for method)“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; “How do you expect the following areas to develop in … over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

European countries rank bottom of the Balanced Outlook Score

Country Outlook

Indonesia 55%

India 45%

Brazil 43%

France 34%

Saudi Arabia 30%

Italy 8%

Switzerland 3%

China 3%

Poland 1%

Canada -1%

Netherlands -3%

South Korea -8%

United States -11%

Sweden -12%

Mexico -15%

Russia -15%

Japan -18%

Belgium -21%

Australia -22%

Spain -23%

Turkey -27%

Germany -35%

United Kingdom -54%

Q3 outlook of economic situation over the next 6 months1

Deteriorate Not includedImprove

Page 11: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Outlook of economic situation over the next 6 months1

11

Balanced Outlook Scores (2/2)

Summary

In general, experts outlook has worsened since the previous quarter. Chinese, German and U.S. experts have all seen a drop of over 30% in their Balanced Outlook Score. China overall, however, remain positive (3%), whereas Germany (-35%) and the U.S. (-11%) score a negative Balanced Outlook Score.

In contrast, Italian business experts show the most improvement of their expectations for the economy over the next six months. Moving from a Balanced Outlook Score of -22% to 8%.

1: Weighted net outlook scores (see page 13 for method)“How do you expect the overall economy in… to develop over the next 6 months?”; “How do you expect the following areas to develop in … over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Chinese, German and U.S. see the largest fall in their balanced outlook scores between quarters

5 change >= 10 percentage points

6 change <= 10 percentage points

Region Country Q2 Q3 Difference ChangeAmericas Brazil 47% 43%

Canada 1% -1%

United States 21% -11% 6

Mexico -19% -15%Europe France 40% 34%

Italy -22% 8% 5

Switzerland 8% 3%

Poland 19% 1% 6

Netherlands 19% -3% 6

Sweden -2% -12%

Russia -4% -15% 6

Belgium -9% -21% 6

Spain 2% -23% 6

Turkey -32% -27%

Germany -2% -35% 6

United Kingdom -30% -54% 6

Asia & Middle East

Indonesia 69% 55% 6

India 59% 45% 6

Saudi Arabia 36% 30%

China 39% 3% 6

South Korea -9% -8%

Japan -10% -18%Oceania Australia -1% -22% 6

-18%

-26%

-4%

-10%

-2%

-7%

-32%

4%

-24%

-5%

30%

-14%

-22%

-11%

-13%

4%

-33%

-14%

1%

-6%

-36%

-8%

-21%

Page 12: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

IN DEPTH

12

Page 13: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

13

Condensing expert judgement from business professionals all over the world

Each quarter, business professionals are asked to report on their satisfaction with the current economic situation of their country and the overall economic outlook for the next 6 months. They are also asked for their current satisfaction and outlook for individual categories: employment rate, consumer demand and confidence, strength of the local currency, international trade, political stability, economic stability and capital expenditure and investments.

The experts who participate are generally businesspeople in leading positions at their companies and have at least ten years of experience. They are recruited through the Atheneum expert network.

Net scores capture a balanced view of the entire economy

The expert evaluations are converted into net scores by subtracting the share of negative evaluations from the share of positive evaluations. The net scores are then weighted by their general score (65%) and the individual attribute scores (5%), to create a Balanced Satisfaction Score and a Balanced Outlook Score. To create the overall Global scores each countries scores are weighted by their GDP, the average of which provides the Global Balanced Satisfaction Score and the Global Balanced Outlook Score.

Method

The GEO scores reflect changes in experts‘ evaluation of the world’s current and future economic situation

Evaluation of current overall economic situation

Evaluation of specific economic areas

Expected development of overall economic situation

Expected development of specific economic areas

+ +

Balanced Satisfaction Score by country

Balanced Outlook Score by country

Weighted by each country’s GDP

+ +

Weighted by each country’s GDP

Global Balanced Outlook Score

Global Balanced Satisfaction Score

GEO Scores

Page 14: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

14

Across the globe experts are generally satisfied, however this looks set to change

Experts are generally satisfied with their country's economic situation, scoring a Global Balanced Satisfaction Score of 32%. The most satisfied countries with their current situation are found in Western Europe. Swiss and Dutch experts report Balanced Satisfaction Scores of 90% and 89% respectively, followed by Germany on 69%. However, our expert's economic confidence drops when discussing the next 6 months, delivering a negative Global Balanced Outlook Score of -5%, indicating that in general, they are somewhat worried about the next 6 months. Chinese, German and U.S. experts all saw a drop of over 30% in their Balanced Outlook Score from the previous quarter.

Chance of recession worries German experts

Despite appearing amongst the top 3 most satisfied countries, with their current economic situation, German experts are pessimistic when it comes to the next 6 months. They are ranked second to last, behind the U.K. (-54% ), for their Balanced Outlook Score (-35%) and only just above Turkey on -27%. When delving deeper, German experts can be seen to be particularly worried about their international trade, economic stability and capital expenditure, with net scores of -42%, -39% and -39% respectively. Only U.K. experts are more concerned about these areas of the economy.

U.K. experts see the economic situation going from very bad to even worse

Brexit seems to have taken its toll on U.K. business experts. With experts particularly gloomy about their current situation and feeling no better about the next six months. The U.K.’s business experts have recorded a significant drop in their Balanced Satisfaction Score since the last quarter (-34% down from -3%) and their Balanced Outlook Score (-54% down from -30%). Further to this, the U.K. ranks bottom for all net outlook scores of the individual categories measured for improvement over the next 6 months; employment rate (-43%), consumer confidence (-46%), strength of currency (-56%), international trade (-46%), political stability (-49%), economic stability (-61%) and capital expenditure and investments (-61%).

Turkish remain troubled about their overall situation

Turkish experts are just as frustrated with their country's current economic situation as they were last quarter. Turkey are ranked last for the Balanced Satisfaction Scores (-72%) and only score -27% for the Balanced Outlook Score, both slightly worse than last quarter. The only shining light for Turkey is that they no longer rank last in; employment rate (-38%), strength of currency (-37%) and capital expenditure (-38%).

Key findings (1/2)

Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Overall, confidence in the economy is falling, especially in Europe.

Page 15: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

15

South Asian countries are the most optimistic

South Asian experts from Indonesia and India are the most optimistic about the next six months, recording the highest Balanced Outlook Scores, 54% and 45% respectively. Indonesia find themselves ranked top for; consumer confidence (56%), strength of currency (35%), political stability (52%), economic stability (55%) and capital expenditure and investments (55%). However, these scores are generally lower than the previous quarter. Indian experts are particularly confident in their ability to conduct international trade over the next 6 months with an outlook score of 57%, a slight increase from last quarter that overtakes Indonesia as most optimistic for international trade.

Despite current discontent, Brazilian business experts anticipate progress

Brazilian experts are still not satisfied with their current situation, reporting a Balanced Satisfaction Score of -51%, same as the previous quarter, only Turkish experts scored worse (-72%) this quarter. However, despite the amazon burning and a relatively new government, experts are positive about the future of the economy, when asked for their expectations over the next six months they predict a massive improvement, with a Balanced Outlook Score of 43%, only behind Indonesia and India.

Italy have the most positive change in outlook since the last quarter

Coinciding with the formation of the new coalition government, Italian business experts show the largest improvement in their outlook, since the last quarter. This has mainly been driven by their positive outlook over the next 6 months, where their Balanced Outlook Score rose from -22% to 8%. However, despite their overall outlook improving, Italian experts are still not overtly positive, reporting a current Balanced Satisfaction Score of just -44%, only up 1% from the previous quarter.

Key findings (2/2)

Source: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

However, some experts are predicting a positive change in fortunes

Page 16: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 6

Canada 5 6

Mexico 6 5

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6 6

France 5 6

Germany 6 6

Italy 5 5

Netherlands 6 6

Poland 6 6

Russia 6 6

Spain 6 6

Sweden 6 5

Switzerland 6 6

Turkey 6 6

U.K. 6 6

Asia & Middle China 6 6

East India 6 6

Indonesia 5 6

Japan 6 6

Saudi Arabia 6 6

South Korea 6 5

Oceania Australia 6 6

16

Satisfaction scores1 in %

General satisfaction and outlook

Outlook scores1 in %

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

In general, satisfaction and outlook scores have decreased over the past quarter

47

-2

-14

-11

-23

42

-37

9

8

-11

-27

-10

4

-26

-56

7

48

59

-22

34

-8

-21

0

51

2

-22

27

-6

48

-1

-23

25

28

-2

3

-1

9

-34

-27

44

64

74

-12

38

-9

-1

-53

48

-53

83

67

24

88

-52

93

80

-22

12

70

95

-75

3

60

58

51

27

46

-19

61

-53

56

-59

68

21

30

72

-51

92

65

-39

-1

56

94

-76

-33

45

22

53

20

14

-33

26

Page 17: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Employment rate

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

In Q3, Brazilian and French experts have the most positive outlook for their country’s employment rate

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 5 5

Canada 5 6

Mexico 6 5

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6 6

France 5 5

Germany 5 6

Italy 5 5

Netherlands 6 6

Poland 6 6

Russia 6 6

Spain 5 6

Sweden 5 6

Switzerland 6 6

Turkey 6 6

U.K. 6 6

Asia & Middle China 5 6

East India 6 6

Indonesia 5 6

Japan 5

Saudi Arabia 6 6

South Korea 5 6

Oceania Australia 6 6

Satisfaction scores1 in % Outlook scores1 in %

50

2

-14

-2

-11

53

-36

1

-1

1

-20

-23

-33

-7

-38

-43

-16

15

45

-3

-16

-18

0

38

3

-15

12

-4

47

6

-15

34

16

-6

-4

-7

-4

-36

-15

18

37

60

33

-14

-8

0

-85

56

-33

87

49

-40

89

-56

91

80

3

-71

50

96

-69

72

47

-11

33

62

10

-33

57

-80

65

-50

81

16

-33

91

-55

90

61

-2

-64

52

94

-80

60

48

-28

39

68

-11

-31

39

Page 18: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

18

Consumer confidence

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

For most countries' satisfaction and outlook for consumer confidence has dropped

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 6 6

Canada 6 5

Mexico 6 6

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6 6

France 5 6

Germany 6 6

Italy 5 5

Netherlands 5 6

Poland 6 6

Russia 6 6

Spain 6 6

Sweden 6 6

Switzerland 6 6

Turkey 6 6

U.K. 6 6

Asia & Middle China 6 6

East India 6 6

Indonesia 5 6

Japan 6 6

Saudi Arabia 6 6

South Korea 5 5

Oceania Australia 6 6

Satisfaction scores1 in % Outlook scores1 in %

53

2

-14

-4

-20

21

-28

1

-18

14

-26

-24

-23

-1

-26

-46

2

42

56

-42

20

-30

0

54

-2

-5

14

-4

39

1

-9

28

-15

6

-8

3

-24

-31

39

61

75

-21

28

-14

-8

0

-39

66

-9

77

48

39

83

-33

75

83

-6

38

75

97

-39

-6

63

58

55

15

46

-5

23

-47

53

-13

57

43

42

70

-27

83

57

-21

7

63

88

-49

-29

41

27

60

3

17

2

4

Page 19: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Strength of local currency

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Saudi Arabia and Netherlands are the most satisfied with the strength of their local currency

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 6 6

Canada 5 6

Mexico 5 6

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6

France 6 6

Germany 6 6

Italy 5 5

Netherlands 6 5

Poland 6 6

Russia 6 6

Spain 5 6

Sweden 6 6

Switzerland 6 5

Turkey 6 5

U.K. 6 6

Asia & Middle China 6 6

East India 6 6

Indonesia 5 6

Japan 6 5

Saudi Arabia 6 5

South Korea 6 6

Oceania Australia 6 6

Satisfaction scores1 in % Outlook scores1 in %

24

-11

-23

11

8

-5

8

9

-20

-34

4

-10

24

-37

-56

-7

24

35

9

29

-5

-32

0

29

-8

-15

15

13

3

-9

1

-5

-21

5

-9

9

-54

-41

26

36

42

6

15

-16

-9

0

-37

-3

-26

82

81

83

79

32

90

23

-30

60

-66

81

-81

-36

63

10

-16

46

90

2

19

-49

19

-19

75

75

73

73

42

83

1

-38

64

-75

55

-84

-79

31

-16

-13

68

83

-22

-25

Page 20: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

20

International trade

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

India has the most positive outlook over the next 6 months for international trade

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 6 6

Canada 5 6

Mexico 6 6

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6 6

France 6 6

Germany 6 6

Italy 5 5

Netherlands 5 6

Poland 6 6

Russia 6 6

Spain 6 6

Sweden 6 6

Switzerland 6 6

Turkey 6 5

U.K. 6 6

Asia & Middle China 6 6

East India 6 5

Indonesia 6 6

Japan 5 6

Saudi Arabia 6 6

South Korea 6 6

Oceania Australia 6 6

Satisfaction scores1 in % Outlook scores1 in %

36

8

-4

-25

-34

14

-42

11

-21

-4

-10

-6

-4

-9

9

-46

-14

57

44

-9

43

-13

-23

45

13

7

3

-15

25

-8

1

16

15

-5

8

16

16

4

-34

29

52

61

-2

56

3

9

-16

3

-1

12

58

27

84

4

85

64

-20

37

80

82

-27

-14

35

40

22

33

59

26

40

-24

11

-10

-8

48

11

59

13

86

46

-28

35

73

80

-28

-22

19

32

6

38

51

-8

30

Page 21: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

21

Political stability

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

The U.K. are the least satisfied with their current political stability

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 6 6

Canada 5

Mexico 5 5

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6 5

France 5 6

Germany 6 6

Italy 6 5

Netherlands 5 5

Poland 5 6

Russia 6 6

Spain 6 6

Sweden 6 5

Switzerland 6 6

Turkey 5 6

U.K. 6 5

Asia & Middle China 5 6

East India 5 6

Indonesia 5 6

Japan 5

Saudi Arabia 5 5

South Korea 5 6

Oceania Australia 5 6

Satisfaction scores1 in % Outlook scores1 in %

8

-8

-30

-29

-14

-2

-28

10

-1

-43

-13

-8

-8

-1

-38

-49

7

43

52

-1

20

-9

4

31

-18

-31

-13

-47

8

-10

-51

-10

-34

1

5

-9

3

-23

-54

31

44

53

-1

10

-7

9

-38

52

-47

-1

-11

44

73

-65

71

-47

15

-22

24

100

-58

-76

60

61

7

54

31

-34

17

-39

52

-39

-12

-70

68

53

-76

74

-35

3

-66

21

98

-57

-86

69

89

33

67

49

-20

51

Page 22: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

22

Economic stability

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Current satisfaction and outlook for economic stability in the U.K. has dropped substantially since Q2

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 5 6

Canada 6 5

Mexico 6 5

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6 5

France 5 6

Germany 6 6

Italy 5 5

Netherlands 5 6

Poland 6 6

Russia 5 6

Spain 6 6

Sweden 6 5

Switzerland 6 5

Turkey 6 6

U.K. 6 6

Asia & Middle China 6 6

East India 6 6

Indonesia 5 6

Japan 6 6

Saudi Arabia 5 6

South Korea 5 5

Oceania Australia 6 6

Satisfaction scores1 in % Outlook scores1 in %

45

2

-16

-19

-23

14

-39

7

-16

-18

-25

-31

-17

5

-38

-61

-2

45

55

-20

23

-13

-35

47

-23

11

-9

20

-7

-34

2

-6

-11

-14

-9

1

-33

-45

25

54

73

-10

38

-28

-4

0

-52

55

-38

74

67

47

90

-59

90

53

-26

8

79

97

-75

-24

61

66

48

54

36

-31

58

-36

53

-41

42

27

48

71

-57

92

34

-25

-16

62

96

-80

-56

50

43

51

42

40

-19

33

Page 23: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Capital expenditure / investments

1: Net scores (positive evaluations minus negative evaluations)“How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the following areas …”; Single Pick; “How do you expect the following areas to develop... over the next 6 months?”; Single Pick; Base: Q2= 2,098 Q3= 1,725 all respondentsSource: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 by Statista & Atheneum

Overall, satisfaction and positive outlook scores for capital expenditure have decreased this quarter

Region Country Q2 Q3 Change Q2 Q3 Change

Americas Brazil 6 5

Canada 6 6

Mexico 6 6

U.S. 6 6

Europe Belgium 6 6

France 5 6

Germany 6 6

Italy 6 5

Netherlands 6 6

Poland 6 6

Russia 5 6

Spain 6 6

Sweden 6 6

Switzerland 6 6

Turkey 6 6

U.K. 6 6

Asia & Middle China 6 6

East India 6 6

Indonesia 6 6

Japan 6 6

Saudi Arabia 6 6

South Korea 5 6

Oceania Australia 6 6

Satisfaction scores1 in %

-64

44

-47

48

16

15

45

-59

74

34

-41

-3

55

85

-53

-10

58

42

47

14

41

-21

19

-56

31

-49

38

14

18

18

-59

66

23

-39

-11

42

74

-74

-34

28

24

38

1

23

-16

11

45

2

-16

-19

-23

14

-39

7

-16

-18

-25

-31

-17

5

-38

-61

-2

45

55

-20

23

-13

-35

40

11

-5

17

-15

29

-1

-21

6

-2

-5

2

1

12

-32

-29

36

59

68

-17

41

-3

6

Outlook scores1 in %

Page 24: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

APPENDIX

24

Page 25: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

25

Sample (1/2)

More than 1,700 experts took part in the last wave of the Global Economic Outlook Score survey

# Country Q2 Q3

1 Australia 77 57

2 Belgium 79 56

3 Brazil 100 88

4 Canada 62 62

5 China 72 58

6 France 75 66

7 Germany 139 111

8 India 98 92

9 Indonesia 95 85

10 Italy 112 98

11 Japan 81 69

12 Mexico 81 80

13 Netherlands 97 77

14 Poland 88 74

15 Russia 117 61

16 Saudi Arabia 39 35

# Country Q2 Q3

17 South Korea 58 64

18 Spain 126 83

19 Sweden 76 52

20 Switzerland 91 82

21 Turkey 95 76

22 United Kingdom 130 108

23 United States 110 91

Total 2,098 1,725

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26

Sample (2/2)

Most participating experts work in a managing position

Position Q2 Q3

Board of directors 128 107

Managing director / CEO / partner 552 456

Area manager 278 252

Head of department 535 443

Team leader 263 194

Employee 146 103

Other 127 102

Freelancer 69 68

Experience Q2 Q3

10 years or less 286 224

11 to 20 years 717 593

21 to 30 years 666 589

31 to 40 years 334 250

41 to 50 years 88 63

Over 50 years 7 6

Page 27: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

Method ▪ Online Survey▪ Duration approx. 5 minutes

Languages ▪ Survey offered in American English, French, German Spanish and Chinese (Traditional)

Source ▪ Statista and Atheneum

Region ▪ 23 countries

Number of respondents

▪ Q3: 2,098▪ Q2: 1,725

Sample ▪ Expert panel, provided by Atheneum

Survey period ▪ Fieldwork each quarter▪ Q3: 03.09 – 16.09.2019▪ Q2: 02.05 – 27.05.2019

Net scores ▪ Positive evaluations minus negative evaluations for either satisfaction or outlook scores

Methodology

27

The Global Economic Outlook report is a worldwide online survey among business experts

Page 28: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

28

Statista and Atheneum

About Statista About Atheneum Partners

Founded in 2010 by Mathias Wengeler and Ammad Ahmad, Atheneum is a global platform for market research and knowledge sharing.

The company's mission is to accelerate customer decision-making by bringing customers together with the world's best professionals and industry leaders. These interactions provide helpful insights and creative ideas that ensure customers can drive their business forward efficiently.

The company is headquartered in Berlin, Germany. Other offices are located in Tokyo, London, New York, Santiago De Chile, Lahore, Shanghai, Seoul, Hong Kong and Munich.

Further information under:

www.atheneum-partners.com.

Statista is one of the largest statistics portals in the world with over 1 million statistics on more than 80,000 topics from 22,500 sources.

More than 1,500,000 registered users use Statista regularly.

Statista currently employs more than 700 people in its offices in Hamburg, London, New York, Paris, Singapore and Tokyo.

https://www.statista.com

Page 29: Global Economic Outlook Score Q3 2019 · The global Balanced Outlook Score for this quarter is -5% indicating that business experts, in general, are concerned about the next 6 months

www.statista.com

Authors

Nicolas LooseHead of Market Research

[email protected]

Jack SpearmanResearch Manager

[email protected]

Nicolas Loose is in charge of the exclusive Statista surveys and theConsumer Market Outlook. He studied Communications and StrategicPlanning at Berlin University of the Arts and Social Sciences at theHumboldt University of Berlin.

After his studies, he worked as a market researcher for customers in theFMCG and automotive industries and as Head of Market Research forAUTO BILD publishing group with Axel Springer publishing house.

Jack Spearman studied Sociology at Kingston University in London, UK.After graduating, he went on to work at TNS and Ipsos in various projectmanagement and market research roles, developing his skills for over 7years.

After moving to Hamburg in 2016, before joining Statista, he worked as aPatient Insight Manager for a patient recruitment company, where hehelped lead the expansion of the company’s online survey offer.