golar flng presentation

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Golar's Presentation covering Floating LNG

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  • Growth by transformational change

  • Forward Looking Statements

    This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) which reflects managements current expectations, estimates and projections about its operations. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities and events that will, should, could or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Words such as may, could, should, would, expect, plan, anticipate, intend, forecast, believe, estimate, predict, propose, potential, continue, or the negative of these terms and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Unless legally required, Golar LNG undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: changes in liquefied natural gas ( LNG) floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) and floating liquefaction natural gas vessel (FLNGV) market trends, including charter rates, ship values and technological advancements; changes in our ability to retrofit vessels as FSRUs and FLNGVs, our ability to obtain financing for such conversions on acceptable terms or at all, and the timing of the delivery and acceptance of such converted vessels; changes in the supply of or demand for LNG or LNG carried by sea; a material decline or prolonged weakness in rates for LNG carriers or FSRUs; changes in trading patterns that affect the opportunities for the profitable operation of LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs; changes in the supply of or demand for natural gas generally or in particular regions; changes in our relationships with major chartering parties; changes in the availability of vessels to purchase, the time it takes to construct new vessels, or vessels useful lives; failure of shipyards to comply with delivery schedules on a timely basis or at all; our ability to integrate and realize the benefits of acquisitions; changes in our ability to sell vessels to Golar LNG Partners LP, or Golar Partners; changes in our relationship with Golar Partners; changes to rules and regulations applicable to LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs; actions taken by regulatory authorities that may prohibit the access of LNG carriers, FSRUs or FLNGVs to various ports; our inability to achieve successful utilization of our expanded fleet and inability to expand beyond the carriage of LNG; increases in costs including among other things crew wages, insurance, provisions, repairs and maintenance; changes in general domestic and international political conditions, particularly where we operate; changes in our ability to obtain additional financing on acceptable terms or at all; and other factors listed from time to time in reports or other materials that we have filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F. Unpredictable or unknown factors also could have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements.

    1

  • Our strategy and investment proposition

    Transitioning to integrated LNG mid-stream player

    Golars strategic intent: integrated LNG mid-stream services provider: - floating liquefaction, LNG shipping and FSRU services. Intent emanates from success in shipping & regas Golar owns one of largest & most modern fleets c.50% market share of FSRU mkt Ambition: LNG liquefaction game changer

    2

    Developed GoFLNG floating liquefaction concept GoFLNG:

    - substantially lower unit cost liquefaction - shorter lead-times - significantly lower execution risk profile

    Advantages most pronounced in remote locations & developing economies having stranded gas reserves

    Overview of the LNG Value Chain

    Exploration & Drilling

    Production & Liquefaction Shipping Regasification Power generation

    FLNG LNG Carriers FSRU

    LNG Midstream

  • Golars Assets

    3

    Old steamers Modern steamers

    Tri-fuel vessels

    FSRUs

    FLNG

    2 units at 125,000cbm 1 unit at 145,000cbm 10 units at 160,000cbm 1 newbuild (5bcmpa)

    2 units (prospective capacity of 5mtpa)

    4 units between 137-145,000cbm

    6 units (2-5bcmpa)

    The current revenue backlog for the Golar Group is $2.7 billion

    Golar LNG Limited Golar LNG Partners LP

  • LNG shipping suffering from project delays

    4

    0

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    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    2022

    2024

    2026

    2028

    2030

    West Africa

    South America

    South & East Africa

    North America

    North Africa

    Middle East

    Europe

    Asia Pacific

    Source: Wood Mackenzie.

    Spike in spot rates in 2011/12 corresponds to delivery of big Qatari projects. Rate drop from Mid-2012: termination of Egyptian export, multiple force majeures

    (Nigeria & Yemen), Angola delays & commissioning of newbuilds end 2013.

    Little additional liquefaction since 2011 but next wave just around the corner

  • Shipping Market Set to Improve

    5

  • FSRU Growth Story Continues

    FSRUs substantially cheaper than land based terminals Gas demand growing in riskier countries: floating, low capex unit even more

    attractive.

    Since 2007, around 75-80% of new markets for LNG opened by an FSRU.

    Floating infrastructure has and will fundamentally alter LNG market dynamics

    6

    Strong growth in FSRU demand

    FSRUs account for much of this

    2000 2013: +190%

  • Our observations and our mission in FLNG

    Globalisation of Gas and Demand for Power

    Energy demand will grow Gas abundant, cost effective, environment friendly Gas will grow as proportion of overall energy mix LNG market will grow & globalize Stranded & associated gas needs low cost FLNG

    2

    Power demand in developing countries is growing fast Location mismatch: gas reserves vs power demand GoFLNG offer bridge: low cost gas to power GoFLNG to monetize stranded & associated gas Golar solutions to small and large resource owners

    Overview of the LNG Value Chain

    Exploration & Drilling

    Production & Liquefaction Shipping Regasification Power generation

    FLNG LNG Carriers FSRU

    LNG Midstream

  • GoFLNG

    GoFLNG Mk I

    existing LNG vessel - 125,000 m3 LNG storage - 2.5 to 2.8 mtpa liquefaction capacity.

    First GoFLNg (Hilli) under construction, delivery Feb 2017, earmarked for Cameroon.

    Second GoFLNG (Gimi) delivery Q1 2018

    Gimi is sister ship to Hilli

    GoFLNG based on proven B&V technology

    7

    33% finished delivered by Q1 2017

  • GoFLNG Model

    GoFLNG value proposition:

    Low unit cost of production. Short lead time. Reduced execution risk. Underpinned by a growing demand globally for LNG.

    GoFLNG business model is based on targeting:

    Relatively dry and clean gas. Associated gas that currently has no opportunity cost is a focus area. Located offshore in benign to moderate met-ocean conditions. With a reserve base above 500 Bcf.

    GoFLNG commercial model:

    Vessel employed on tolling basis. Primary exposure to commodity price sits with the resource holder. Golar mindful of security of project cash flow, project timing & risk

    8

  • The Floating Cost Advantage

    The FSRUs substantially cheaper than land based terminals

    Floating infrastructure has and will continue fundamentally to alter LNG market paradigm

    9

    GoFLNG unit capex USD400-500/Mtpa Onshore liquefaction USD1000-2000/Mtpa

    (greenfield)

    An FSRU is Substantially cheaper than a Land-Based Alternative FLNG Costs are less than half recent greenfield onshore terminals (Source: Arctic sec)

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    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    mU

    SD/M

    TPA

    FSRU substantially cheaper than land based

    Land based

    FSRU

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

    mU

    SD/M

    TPA

    FLNG costs superior in recent time

    Onshore

    FLNG

    Source: Arctic Securities, Company

  • FLNG Comparison Economics

    Global liquefaction costs (15% pre-tax IRR, 20 years) range from $2.88 to c.$7.0 (includes OPEX). Golars model can deliver superior returns at the lower end of this cost range with added benefits of: Scalability: maintains cost advantage even on smaller projects (1.0-2.5 MMTPA). Reliability: simple proven technology to mitigate unplanned outages and start-up delays. Predictability: controlled environment of shipyard gives confidence on schedule and cost (relatively

    inflation proof compared with in-situ LNG construction projects). Financeability: Golar plan to execute projects without cumbersome pre-FID project finance overlay. Speed of execution: permitting and construction timeline dramatically improved with floating asset.

    Notes: Dotted lines represent capital cost range; assumes LNG delivery to Tokyo Bay Harbour (FOB Destination, seller pays for LNG transport); 25 year project life; Western Australia liquids yield of 15 bbl/mmcf and price realization of $102bbl. Source: Company Reports, IHS CERA, RBC Capital Markets

    11

  • Golar is The Low Cost Producer

    12

  • Why Africa?

    West Africa offers significant high quality clean gas requiring little pre-processing

    Associated gas is also plentiful Nigeria is flaring 428bcf p.a. (~9mtpa LNG)

    Domestic prices significantly below international prices FLNG can add value

    Incumbent majors are not pursuing fast track low cost solutions

    Land based terminals in Africa require very high returns given execution, political, inflation and currency risks. FLNG can mitigate some of these risks.

    13

    Dry Natural Gas Production in Sub-Saharan Africa: 2010 - 2040

  • All-in Breakeven Costs

    In power short countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa) power prices tend to be above USD150/MWh - gas can clearly offer superior economics.

    ..and before accounting for pollution benefit of gas over coal or oil fired plants.

    14

    Supply Chain Cost Breakdown

    Associated gas (USD/Mmbtu) 1.50 Tolling fee (USD/Mmbtu) 2.00 Shipping (USD/Mmbtu) 1.30 Regasification cost (USD/Mmbtu) 0.45 All in cost (USD/Mmbtu) 5.25 Energy equivalent oil price (USD/Boe) 31.5 Implied USD/MWh (USD/MWh) 35.0 Power plant cost (USD/MWh) 18.0 Total USD/MWh (USD/MWh) 53.0

  • Crude oil substitution potential is vast

    15

    Power generation from crude is equal to the current total LNG market

    Source: Pira Energy

  • NAV support strong liquidity position

    16

    Equity of Golar ~USD26/share, does not take account of the General Partner interest

    Dividend of USD1.8/share represents a 5.5% dividend yield

    Golar strengthened balance sheet to weather the challenging shipping market.

    Golar can fully fund the newbuilding program & conversion of GoFLNG Hilli

    US$ millions Balance sheet cash position as at 4Q14 192

    GMLP units secondary offering proceeds 207 GMLP revolver 20 Newbuild equity release 180 Cash released from restricted balance since 4Q14 25 Cash available now and within the next three months 624

    Eskimo sale proceeds 227 Pro-forma cash position after all amounts due are received 851

    Cash position strengthened in recent months NAV support today of USD26/share (Arctic Securities)

    US$ millions

    Fleet value (analyst estimates) 4,156

    GMLP M-t-M 479

    Adjusted cash 851

    Interest bearing debt (analyst est) 1,860

    Remaining capex (analyst estimates) 1,161

    NAV 2,465

    NAVps 26.5

  • Capex vs. EBITDA

    $900

    $300

    $1.200

    $250 $450

    $0

    $200

    $400

    $600

    $800

    $1.000

    $1.200

    $1.400

    Conversion Jetty etc. All-capex EBITDA Low EBITDA High

    Using U.S. Gulf transactions as a reference point, annual EBITDA can be expected to be in the $250mm - $450mm range.

    This compares with all-in estimated conversion cost of $1.2bn.

    Equals an EBITDA-payback of 3 - 5 years based on 4 trains.

    ~3x5x

    $mm

    Average FLNG project longevity is expected to be between 5 - 20 years, an ideal asset for MLP dropdown

    Each project is expected to require between 2 - 5 ships to transport LNG.

    Potential dropdown valuation (based on past dropdown EBITDA multiples):

    FLNG $3,000-$4,000mm.

    Ships $750mm.

    Potential dropdown value per project $3,750-$4,750mm.

    Note: U.S. Dollars in millions.

    GoFLNG The Potential Economics for Golar

    17

  • FLNG project pipeline growing

    Growing Portfolio of Projects fast & cheap are their competitive advantages

    Simplified Illustration of the Economics of an FLNG Unit

    Tariff: USD4/Mmbtu.

    Capacity: up to 2.8mtpa.

    EBITDA: up to 450mn.

    MLP drop-down: 8-10x EBITDA.

    Value of ~USD4bn capex of USD1.2bn = USD2.8bn.

    Current market cap is USD3.2bn.

    18

    FLNG # Operator Capacity (Mtpa) Duration Potential start-up 1 Perenco Up to 2.5 8 years 2017 2 West Africa 2.5 Life of field 2018 3 Rosneft 2.5 Life of field 2018 4 Rosneft 2.5 Life of field 2019 5 Cedar LNG 2.8 Life of field 2020 6 Cedar LNG 2.8 Life of field 2020 7 Cedar LNG 2.8 Life of field 2021

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