have the wheels come off the autonomous vehicle bandwagon
TRANSCRIPT
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Have The Wheels Come Off the Autonomous Vehicle Bandwagon?
Thomas J. Bamonte Assistant Executive Director, Strategy & InnovationNorth Texas Tollway Authority Twitter: @TomBamonte
November 12, 2015
ITS TEXAS 2015
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OVERVIEW
Long road to autonomous vehiclesObstacles facing autonomous vehiclesDestination
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
1920’s
The radio-operated automobile, Linrrican Wonder, 1925
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1939 World Fair Futurama Exhibition
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
General Motors' Firebird II was described as having an "electronic brain" that allowed it to move into a lane with a metal conductor and follow it along.
1950’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1950’s
“Want to sit back and relax? Well then, set in the speed you want to fly and switch over to automatic guidance. Release the stick, and Firebird III is on its own.” – Firebird III advertisement, late 1950s.
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1950’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1960’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1970’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1980’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1990’s National Automated Highway System
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles2000’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles2010
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles2015
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
2030
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GOOGLEGOOGLE HUBRIS?
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Complex operating environment
Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles
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Technical Limits on sensor capabilities
Weather Obstructed intersections
High processing power requirements High safety expectations
Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles
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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles
Legal Are driverless vehicles legal? Who is liable for accidents? Who owns the data? Privacy Cybersecurity
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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles
Ethics: Kids or collisions? Demand to program “ethics” No consensus on the ethical code
Will Driverless Cars Be Ethical Killers?
Designed to kill? The uncomfortable ethics of driverless cars
Who Will Driverless Cars Decide To Kill?A question that will plague the autonomous car industry
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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles
Fear of the machine Loss of control Safety fears Personal autonomy Privacy invasion
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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles
Consumer acceptance Driving = fun Driving = control Value proposition AVs = Segway on four wheels?
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Obstacles Facing Autonomous Vehicles
Political/Economic Resistance Professional drivers Body shops Parking lot operators Insurance companies Drive through businesses
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Vehicle Autonomy Will Come Gradually
Low-speed environments
Controlled environments
Transit
Trucking
Fleets
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Vehicle Autonomy Will Come Gradually
Well marked and mapped streets/highways key Machine-visible Lanes known and evident Conditions communicated and up-to-date Surprises minimized
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No Car Stands Alone
Key to vehicle autonomy is vehicle connection Infrastructure information makes smart cars smarter Vehicles teach/learn from each other in real time Costs and liability shared, accelerating deployment
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Destination
Autonomous vehicle technology key to improving surface transportation
Highway ITS role will change Past: Highway data to TMC to driver eyeballs Future: Vehicles harvest highway data and send to other vehicles via
cloud and/or V2V technology TMC role shifts
No truly autonomous vehicles; rather automated vehicle operation supported by multiple data streams
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When?
Past suggests rapid adoption 1898: 800 registered cars 1908: Model T introduced 1927: 19 million cars on the road
Over half of American families had a carPresent suggests rapid adoption
Smartphones went from 5% to 40% of market in 4 years
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Future?
Our timeline (per Bloomberg) 2010: Google tests driverless car on public roads 2012: Nevada licenses first driverless car 2015: Tesla releases Autopilot 2017: “SuperCruise” and other semi-autonomous features 2020: Extensive AV use in controlled/low-speed environments 2025: Fully autonomous vehicles available 2030: Driverless fleets (e.g., Uber) 2045: Majority of vehicles autonomous 2050: Major road capacity benefits realized (2x-5x) 2060: Autonomous vehicles mandatory
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Our Mission
North Texas Tollway Authority
Provide a safe and reliable toll road system Increase value and mobility options for customers Operate the Authority in a businesslike manner Protect our bondholders Partner to meet our region’s growing need for transportation infrastructure
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Connection Autonomy
Processing power demands distributedMapping duties sharedMachine vision extended beyond vehicleVehicles teach/learn from each otherMore parties with financial/liabilty stake in systemSafety enhanced
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
1939 World Fair Futurama Exhibition
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
1939 World Fair Futurama Exhibition
“The world we are now seeing is a vision, an artistic conception, which may undergo many changes as it develops into the great realities of tomorrow.”- New York World’s Fair, “Futurama: Highways & Horizons,” 1939. Credit: General Motors
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles1950’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
No Hands Across America
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
2000’s
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
2000’s
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Transit
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Low-speed environments (GET BETTER PICTURE)
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Long Road to Autonomous Vehicles
2000’s
Robot Buses Are Coming To America, To Pave The Way For Driverless CarsFirst, a quiet business park. Next, the world.