leading the bandwagon

Leading the Bandwagon


I hate to brag, and I hate to say I told you so, but I just can’t help it.


What am I talking about?


AAPL: Apple Inc.


You know, the makers of the iPod and the iPad and iPhone. Yeah

those guys.


Back on September 24th the stock was trading around 690 and I said

to short it.


Well today, it’s at 638, down 52 points or around 7.5%.


Anyway, that’s not important at all. I didn’t short the stock myself and I didn’t sell any shares. It was

academic and meaningless…


But it was for a point.


My point was that you should run away from the bandwagon as fast

as possible. Every time.


You see, it was on that morning that I read a report with some

statisticians saying the AAPL was going to increase 50% in stock

price…


And become the first trillion dollar company in world history.


And I said it was time to sell to get away from the nearly always

wrong bandwagon.


Anyway, conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. The band

wagon is consistently a bad thing. Except for in one case.


When you’re leading the bandwagon.


Then it’s all sunshine and puppy dogs.


When you lead the bandwagon, you make the moves, you set the trends, and you command the big

bucks.


They say it’s lonely at the top, but they lie. It’s lonely everywhere

but the top, and God forbid you’re down, you’ll find no shortage of

people looking to kick you.


Anyway, that’s not the point.


The point is this…


I had a couple of flashbacks this morning; both band wagon

related.


The first was to my junior high and high school days when

Michael Jordan was winning 6 championships in 8 years.


At the time, everyone I knew was a Bulls fan, and I hated it and

them (Knicks fan here).


That’s right. Everyone and their mother were Bulls fans. But guess

how many still are?


NONE!


That’s bandwagon mentality.


OK. Last flashback…


It’s 2003. The Yankees are in the Series with the then Florida

Marlins. If you remember, the Marlins won the World Series in ‘97, then went on to dismantle

the team.


Anyway, they’re playing the Yanks and all my college football friends from Florida suddenly transform into Marlins fans…. Overnight.


And these are college athletes and sports fans, and you know what? Not one of them could name one

single player on the Marlins.


But they sure were all rooting pretty hard for them.


And that’s the bandwagon mentality.


When you’re on top and leading the bandwagon, life is good.


But don’t ever find yourself following a bandwagon. It’ll lead

you straight to the bottom.


Or down 7.5% in just two weeks.


Just some food for thought.

Until Next Time…

Until next time,

Kevin Oefelein


P.S. I had tickets to Game 7 of that 2003 World Series at Yankee

Stadium…


A game that was never played (Marlins won in 6).


Anyway, I had a chance to have Game 6 tickets too, but chose Game 7 instead. I missed out.

Don’t you miss out.

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