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Hotel Report In Focus No half-measures – the performance of the “big seven” in the first six months of the year Edition July 2015 © INFINITY - fotolia.com

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Page 1: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Hotel Report

In Focus No half-measures – theperformanceofthe“bigseven”inthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear

Edition July 2015

© INFINITY - fotolia.com

Page 2: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.com© 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Index

Dear readers, 3

June 2015 in comparison to the previous year 4

Fairmas Trendbarometer 8

In Focus 16

Disclaimer 30

Page 3: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.com© 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Dear readers,

Germany is a popular tourist destination – its tourist trade is booming. Last year, the country’s accommo-

dation enterprises reported a record number of overnight stays – for the fifth year in a row. However, mini-

mum wage legislation is now making life more difficult for hoteliers, and many destinations are struggling

in what has become a difficult year for trade fairs. Thus, we must ask whether the trend can continue

this year. Fairmas and Solutions dot WG have analysed how 2015 has developed so far. How healthy is

business in Germany’s major destinations of Berlin, Dresden, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg,

Cologne/Bonn, and Munich?

As always, we analyse how things have developed over the past month and will preview the months to

come.

We hope you enjoy our Hotel Report and wish you an interesting read!

The team of Fairmas Hotel Report

(Gabriele Kiessling & Nadine Kilian)

Page 4: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

June 2015 in comparison to the previous year1

A brief overview of hotel performances at selected German destinations:

1 All the figures (daily collected) quoted are comparisons with those for the previous year, rounded to full amounts Source: Fairmas GmbH/STR Global, Data as of 01.07.2015

Berlin

Occ: 84 %, ADR: 112 €, RevPar: 95 €

Business was even better than the positive fore-

casts for June had predicted. Occupancy rose by

5% while room rates were also much higher (28%)

than last year (RevPar: +34%). The Champions

League final on June 6, which was completely

sold out, ensured a huge surge in demand over

the entire weekend. Room rates attained levels

comparable with those achieved during the 2006

World Cup final in Berlin. The Hauptstadtkongress

(Capital City Congress) from 10 to 12 June 2015

and the EAN Congress (20 to 23 June 2015) were

both very well booked. The visit of Queen Eliza-

beth II at the end of the month also increased room

rates. A full crop of public holidays fell in May this

year (last year, some of them had been in June). As

a result, there has been very good demand for the

four business weeks just before the school sum-

mer holidays, which start in mid-July.

Cologne/Bonn

Occ: 75 %, ADR: 96 €, RevPar: 73 €

June also went very well in Cologne and Bonn. De-

mand was strong in every segment, particularly in

the business and conference sectors. The “ANGA

COM” and “VICTAM” events, held together with

the “FIAAP” and “grapas” trade shows, took place

at the same time (9 to 11 June 2015). The “GIFA”

trade show in Dusseldorf (16 to 20 June 2015) also

generated plenty of overflow business in Cologne.

Besides this, the spring public holidays were all in

May, meaning that there was time for four full busi-

ness weeks in Cologne and Bonn this June. Major

concerts by Helene Fischer (coinciding with the

GIFA in Dusseldorf on 15 and 16 June) and AC/DC

(19 June) generated additional demand. All in all,

occupancy increased by a year-on-year 11% with

room rates up 12% (RevPar: +24%).

Page 5: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Dresden

Occ: 74 %, ADR: 76 €, RevPar: 56 €

June was not a particularly successful month in

Dresden last year but things were slightly bet-

ter this time around. Although occupancy stag-

nated, room rates did increase by 3%. Business

and meeting sector demand rose slightly, since all

the public holidays fell in May. This meant higher

room rates than in the leisure and group sectors.

While there was slightly less group sector business

in June, more individual guests did arrive, which

helped raise room rates somewhat. And even if no

trade fairs or congresses were held in Dresden this

June, there was still a lot going on in the city, with

the “BRN” event, the movie nights on the banks

of the Elbe, and the “Elbhangfest” all taking place.

Dusseldorf

Occ: 74 %, ADR: 116 €, RevPar: 83 €

June was a very good moth indeed in Dusseldorf,

as in many other destinations, particularly in terms

of room rates (ADR: +32%). Very high room rates

were recorded thanks to the “GIFA” A-list trade fair

(held every four years) that ran from June 16 to 20.

This year, Corpus Christi also fell in June, so that

2½ business weeks were available for corporate

and MICE business in addition to the trade fair. The

DÖAK AIDS Congress was held in the last week

of June (24 to 27 June 2015) and also lifted room

rates.

Frankfurt

Occ: 75 %, ADR: 121 €, RevPar: 92 €

June in Frankfurt was very healthy in terms of all

three key figures (Occ: +14%, ADR: +31%, and

RevPar: +50%). This year, the leading ACHEMA

trade fair (held every three years) ran from 15 to

19 June 2015 and generated extremely high room

rates. Moreover, there were no further public holi-

days or school vacations in June except for just

one day (Corpus Christi) in the first week of June.

The second half of the month was marked by ad-

ditional individual pick-up, especially from the cor-

porate sector.

Hamburg

Occ: 83 %, ADR: 112 €, RevPar: 95 €

Overall, June in Hamburg was positive in terms of

all three key parameters (Occ: +2%, ADR: +4%,

and RevPar: +7%). The “IAPH” International Port

Congress from 1 to 5 June (a conference held at

rotating venues) ensured additional bookings in

the first week of June. At the same time, there was

some good MICE business and particularly high

demand in the leisure segment thanks to late in-

quiries.

Munich

Occ: 83 %, ADR: 127 €, RevPar: 106 €

The month of June was a highpoint in Munich.

There were far fewer public holidays than in June

Page 6: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

2014, and only one week of the Whitsun school

holidays. This allowed much more time for busi-

ness sector trade than last year. However, Rama-

dan began on 18 June 2015, earlier than last year,

which meant that guests from Arab countries de-

parted earlier. The G7 summit at Schloss Elmau

only generated additional business for those ho-

tels near the airport. Worthy of note in this case

was the layover business caused by the closure

of airspace. Besides this, two trade fairs were held

(“Intersolar Europe” and the “Laser World of Pho-

tonics”), which were both marked by very healthy

short-term demand (last year only the Intersolar

took place in June). In June, the Munich hotel

industry enjoyed an occupancy rise of 5% while

room rates increased by 3%. This meant a 7% im-

provement in RevPar on a year-on-year basis.

Page 7: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Overview of all destinations

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

Berlin 84,2% 80,3% 3,9 4,9% 112,8 88,0 24,8 28,2% 95,0 70,7 24,3 34,4%Cologne / Bonn 75,7% 68,0% 7,7 11,3% 96,5 86,5 10,0 11,6% 73,1 58,8 14,2 24,2%Dresden 74,2% 73,5% 0,7 1,0% 76,1 74,1 2,0 2,7% 56,5 54,5 2,0 3,7%Dusseldorf 72,1% 66,3% 5,8 8,7% 116,1 88,2 27,9 31,6% 83,7 58,5 25,2 43,1%Frankfurt 75,9% 66,7% 9,2 13,8% 121,4 92,4 29,0 31,4% 92,1 61,6 30,5 49,5%Hamburg 85,3% 83,6% 1,7 2,0% 112,2 107,5 4,7 4,4% 95,7 89,9 5,8 6,5%Munich 83,2% 79,6% 3,6 4,5% 127,7 124,5 3,2 2,6% 106,2 99,1 7,1 7,2%

*Source: Fairmas GmbH / STR Global, based on data from participants with daily data entry, Data as of 30.06.2015

LegendOCC OccupancyADR Average Daily Rate (net rooms revenue)RevPar Revenue per available Room (net logistics revenue per available room)

Hotel Performance June 2015/2014*

Occupancy in % Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

4,9%

11,3%

1,0%

8,7%

13,8%

2,0%4,5%

28,2%

11,6%

2,7%

31,6% 31,4%

4,4%2,6%

34,4%

24,2%

3,7%

43,1%

49,5%

6,5% 7,2%

Berlin Cologne / Bonn Dresden Dusseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Munich

Occ ADR RevPar

Page 8: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Fig.1: Trendbarometer Berlin 2015 – Trend versus last year

0,8%

-2,9%

-0,9%

0,9%

3,7%

-10,1%

1,8%

0,6%

-10,9%

July

August

September

Last Year

Occ Adr RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH / Data as of 01.07.2015

Fairmas Trendbarometer

A peek into the future – in detail:

Berlin

The basic conditions for July are similar to last

year’s. The first two weeks of July are still good

business weeks. The school

summer holidays start in mid-

July, and like last year, the

“Bread & Butter”, “Panorama”

and “Fashion Week” events

are all taking place at the be-

ginning of the month. These

are a number of very success-

ful inner city events, so there

will be some overflow to the

hotels outside the centre. Last

year, Berlin was particularly

interesting because of the live

public TV screenings during the FIFA World Cup

and the visit of the German national team after their

victory in the final. This year though, there are more

queries from large groups, as well as some con-

vention inquiries. The Maccabi Games (the “Jew-

ish Olympics”) will be held in the city from 27 July

to 5 August 2015. This will mean a lot of pick-up

for the city’s hotels. A 0.8% increase in occupancy

is expected, as is a 0.9% rise in room rates. A very

small increase in RevPar (nearly 2%) is predicted.

Currently, August is still difficult to weigh up. The

school summer vacation runs throughout the

whole month, so that hardly any business sec-

tor trade can be expected. However, August has

been a strong leisure-sector month in recent years.

Hoteliers are hoping the same for 2015. The pric-

es being charged for weekend offers are slightly

higher than last year. However, leisure bookings in

Page 9: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

particular are often made very late. The Maccabi

Games (“Jewish Olympics”), which are still running

at the beginning of the month, could be a driver

for room rates. At the end of August, the “Long

Night of the Museums” is back (in 2014 it was held

in May), and this weekend is expected to be very

well-booked. This fiscal year has so far been very

good for hotels in Berlin, which is giving hoteliers

grounds for optimism. While occupancy is ex-

pected to decline by 3%, room rates will increase

by around 4%. August should therefore provide a

0.6% year-on-year improvement in RevPar.

September is generally the best month in Berlin.

This year, however, the “InnoTrans” trade show will

be absent. It takes place every two years and regu-

larly generates very high room rates. However, the

IFA, which is held every year, will be well attended

and the room rates for this are

already encouragingly high. The

Berlin Marathon is always very

popular. There will also be busi-

ness groups and conference

sector business. The expected

individual trade will only come

at short notice. The large num-

ber of smaller events in the city

should not be underestimat-

ed, either. These include EU-

ROBASKET (at the beginning of

September), the “Lollapalooza

Festival Tempelhof” (12 to 13 September 2015), as

well as two concerts by U2 (24 and 25 September),

and a variety of smaller congresses. However, Ber-

lin hoteliers nevertheless expect setbacks in all key

parameters (Occ: -0.9%; ADR: -10%; and RevPar:

-11%) due to the absence of Innotrans, though

these falls will not be as dramatic as they could

have been, thanks to other decent developments.

Cologne/Bonn

July will again be somewhat weaker due to the

school summer holidays, which will also lead to

poor corporate business. Demand has been quite

low so far. However, there will certainly be three

high-priced weekends in Cologne. Christopher

Street Day on 5 July 2015, the “Kölner Lichter”

(Cologne Lights) event on 11 July 2015 and the

Amphi Festival (25 to 26 July 2015) are expected

Fig.2: Trendbarometer Cologne/Bonn 2015 – Trend versus last year

-4,6%

-4,1%

-2,2%

0,3%

4,1%

-10,4%

-4,3%

-0,2%

-12,4%

July

August

September

Last Year

Occ Adr RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH / Data as of 01.07.2015

Page 10: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

to provide good pick-up,

even though bookings have

so far been very restrained.

Weekday demand is still very

poor. The Cologne hoteliers

are therefore assuming a 5%

drop in occupancy. In con-

trast, room rates are expected

to rise by 0.3%, which would

mean a drop of more than 4%

in RevPar.

Demand for the “gamescom” event is already very

high this year, even at such an early stage. In ad-

dition, the “ESL Counter-Strike” (computer gaming

tournament) is taking place on 22 and 23 August

at the Lanxess Arena. Demand for this event is very

good. The “spoga+gafa” gardening trade show

will begin early (30 August) this year. Cologne ho-

teliers expect a 4% room rate increase. However,

occupancy is set to remain a good 4% below the

figures for the same month last year. RevPar would

thus be 0.1% lower than last year.

The outlook in Cologne and Bonn for September is

not good. The Photokina trade fair is held only eve-

ry two years and will be missing from the 2015 cal-

endar. This makes itself very clearly in the advance

booking situation and the room rates. In addition,

the spoga + gafa events have shifted a little into

August. This all impacts negatively on September

ADR. There are also school summer holidays in

most of Germany’s federal states in August so

local hoteliers are therefore expecting very little

corporate business. Overall, a 2% decline in oc-

cupancy is foreseen in Cologne and Bonn. Room

rates look likely to fall by as much as 10%. This will

cause a decline of more than 12% in RevPar.

Dresden

July looks set to develop positively, just as June

has already done (and not only due to summer

weather). Traditionally, a lot happens in the city

in summer. For example, the seventh Dresden

Schlössernacht (Palaces by Night) event is being

held in July. The “Holi Festival of Colours” will be

held on 4 July 2015, while the US Car Convention

is taking place from 10 to 12 July 2015. Helene

Fischer is also holding two of her very popular con-

certs at the stadium (on 7 and 8 July), and a lot of

Fig.3: Trendbarometer Dresden 2015 – Trend versus last year

8,0%

-0,8%

-2,6%

3,1%

3,1%

3,7%

11,3%

2,2%

1,0%

July

August

September

Last Year

Occ Adr RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH / Data as of 01.07.2015

Page 11: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

pick-up is expected from the “Kaiser Mania” event

on 31 July 2015. Hoteliers expect an 8% year-on-

year rise in occupancy and an ADR rate increase

of 3% over 2014. This would mean an 11% upturn

in RevPar. Nevertheless, summer bookings always

depend on the weather and are made at very short

notice. Still, prior booking levels are giving rise to

optimism.

August in Dresden is still difficult to assess. The

“Kaiser Mania” event ends on the first of the month,

and overall leisure demand will greatly depend on

the weather. Additional pick-up can be expected

from the 17th Dresden Stadtfest (City Festival),

being held from 14 to 16 August. The “IEEE In-

ternational Symposium on Electromagnetic Com-

patibility” and “EMC Europe” events take place

jointly in Dresden from 16 to 22 August, and could

lead to better room rates. While

a near 1% drop in occupancy

has been forecast, room rates

are set to rise by 3% on a

year-on-year basis. That would

mean an increase in RevPar of

over 2%.

September in Dresden is so far

set to be similarly unpredictable.

Up to now, no significant con-

gresses and meetings are ex-

pected during the month. Last

year, there were even two major congresses in the

city, though these will be absent this year, some-

thing that will put pressure on room rates in turn.

Everything would seem to depend on urban tour-

ism again, but this business is too often booked

at the last moment and greatly depends on the

weather. The Dresden hotel industry is very cau-

tiously predicting a drop of nearly 3% in occupancy

and a room rate increase of nearly 4%. That would

mean a gentle (yet still pleasing) year-on-year Rev-

Par increase of 1%.

Dusseldorf

So far, July in Dusseldorf has been looking nega-

tive with a 4% decline in RevPar, which can be at-

tributed to the negative occupancy figures (down

8%). Last year, the school summer holidays start-

ed a week later than in 2015, generating good

Fig.4: Trendbarometer Dusseldorf 2015 – Trend versus last year

-7,7%

-2,7%

-2,9%

4,3%

8,3%

-2,2%

-3,7%

5,4%

-5,0%

July

August

September

Last Year

Occ Adr RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH / Data as of 01.07.2015

Page 12: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

corporate and conference business in Dusseldorf

in the first week of July. Nevertheless, it is assumed

that July will still develop positively overall, due to

the additional leisure sector demand.

So far, the forecast for August has also been

healthy (RevPar up 5%), primarily due to the posi-

tive (+8%) ADR trend. This year, the school sum-

mer holidays end in mid-August, which means that

more corporate business can be expected in the

last two weeks of the month.

September is also viewed with little optimism and

a drop of 5% in RevPar is expected, due to the

negative trends in occupancy (Occ: -3%) and ADR

(-2.2%). Here, it generally remains to be seen just

how the month will develop. In some cases, op-

tions and inquiries are still being received. Experi-

ence has shown that the overall result will still be

corrected upwards, because the Expopharm event

and the FIP Congress (a convention held at rotat-

ing venues, which did not take place last year) will

be running in the last week of September. These

events have already been the subject of healthy

levels of inquiries.

Frankfurt

The forecasts for July are overall poor, with a de-

cline of 5% in occupancy predicted, leading to a

4.7% lower RevPar, despite the positive room rates

(ADR up 0.2%). The positive ADR forecast is due

to the strong demand in the conference and busi-

ness sector because there are no school holidays

at this time in the two neighbouring federal states

of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bavaria. The upcom-

ing Jehovah’s Witnesses Congress on 10 July will

also lead to a good volume of group sector busi-

ness. However, it remains to be seen whether the

overall result will need to be corrected upwards.

The forecast so far for August is a negative one

(RevPar: down 0.2%), in spite of positive trends in

ADR (up 2.4%). Despite the summer break, there

has so far been a stable basis of group sector

bookings, including the first construction work at

the IAA in September. Everything else will remain

to be seen because it is still too early to make any

predictions about individual pick-up. However, the

trends so far this year have been pleasing.

As at many other destinations, September will be

marked by poor development overall with a 2%

decline in RevPar. Experience has shown that con-

ference and corporate inquiries in a month with

the IAA taking place (17 to 27 September 2015)

are fewer than when the Automechanika was held

last year (16 to 20 September 2014). The Auto-

mechanika is considered the leading trade fair

and enjoys reports higher room rates than the ILO,

even if the latter does last much longer. Hoteliers

expect that the occupancy figures will still be cor-

rected upwards.

Page 13: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Hamburg:

The July forecast for Hamburg is very positive in

terms of all three parameters (Occ: +3%, ADR:

+2.7%, and RevPar: +5.8%). This year, the German

Derby horse race is being held over the last week

of June and the first week of July. Last year, this

event took place entirely in June. The reschedul-

ing of the “Schlagermove” event

to July will have a positive impact

on room rates and occupancy

over the weekend. There is also

hope of increased leisure sector

demand. Overall, it remains to

be seen just how July will evolve.

So far, the forecast for August

has been healthy (RevPar up

1.2%), mainly due to the positive

(1.2%) ADR trend. August kicks

off with the CSD (Christopher

Street Day) party weekend, and

then continues with a number

of street festivals and smaller

celebrations in various districts

of Hamburg, which will gener-

ate a particularly high demand

this year. Furthermore, the

month promises a number of

sporting highlights including the

“Vattenfall Cyclassics” on 23 Au-

gust 2015 (last year it was on

24 August) and it is rounded off with the “Stutt-

gart Weindorf“ (Wine Village) at the Rathausmarkt,

starting 26 August.

The overall development for September is again

set to be very poor (RevPar: -7.4%), mainly due

to the negative room rate forecast (ADR: -8.4%).

Fig.5: Trendbarometer Frankfurt 2015 – Trend versus last year

-4,9%

-2,5%

-2,9%

0,2%

2,4%

0,9%

-4,7%

-0,2%

-2,1%

July

August

September

Last Year

Occ Adr RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH / Data as of 01.07.2015

Fig.6: Trendbarometer Hamburg 2015 – Trend versus last year

3,0%

0,0%

1,1%

2,7%

1,2%

-8,4%

5,8%

1,2%

-7,4%

July

August

September

Last Year

Occ Adr RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH / Data as of 01.07.2015

Page 14: Hotel Report - Fairmas

Solutions Dot WG GmbH | Kranzerstraße 6-7 | 14199 Berlin | www.solutionsdotwg.comFairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH | Sachsendamm 6 | 10829 Berlin | www.fairmas.com © 2014 Fairmas GmbH/Solutions Dot WG GmbH

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

The high-priced SMM trade fair, which takes place

only every other year, will be absent this Septem-

ber. This is the main reason for the very high fall in

room rates. The “Wind Energy” trade fair also took

place last year. Highlights of September 2015 will

include the Seatrade Fair (9 to 11 September) and

the subsequent Hamburg Cruise Days (12 and 13

September), which also took place last year and

which will generate different room rate levels. The

later start of the “Alstervergnügen“ event (it now

begins in September this year) may not be enough

to compensate for the lack of the two trade fairs.

Munich

July is not expected to herald in any major chang-

es compared to last year. Although occupancy is

likely to decline by 2%, room rates should rise by

almost 5%. This would boost RevPar by 2%. There

is a lack of convention business, and although the

25th Training Week for Practical

Dermatology and Venereology

will be good for room rates, it

will weaken occupancy. The

early end of Ramadan in the

last third of the month (20 July

2015) gives hope for increased

business from the Arab world

with premium room rates in the

higher price categories. Howev-

er, preliminary bookings are still

well below original expectations.

Because Ramadan is earlier this year, many more

Middle Eastern guests can be expected in August.

However, there will be fewer visitors from Euro-

pean countries. A significant increase in ADR is

expected as they book higher (and thus more ex-

pensive) room categories than European travellers

do. Room rates are expected to rise more than

8% over last year’s. However, occupancy is set to

decline by 3%. RevPar would then be 5% higher

than in the same month last year.

On the other hand, it looks so far as if September

will much less rosy in Munich. This year, the EAS

Congress will be absent. Advance bookings for

the Oktoberfest are still very weak. The IBA trade

fair, which only takes place every three years, is so

far well below expectations. Thus, room rates are

currently still quite low in both cases. Occupancy,

however, is slightly higher than last year and is

Fig.7: Trendbarometer Munich 2015 – Trend versus last year

-2,2%

-3,3%

1,6%

4,7%

8,3%

-7,4%

2,4%

4,7%

-5,9%

July

August

September

Last Year

Occ Adr RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH / Data as of 01.07.2015

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

expected to rise by just below 2%. The room rate

will fall by over 7%. That would mean a 6% drop in

RevPar in September.

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

In Focus

No half-measures – the performance of the “big seven” in the first six months of

the year

The tourism industry is booming in Germany. In 2014, hotels and B&Bs reported a record number of annual

overnight stays for the fifth year in a row: the Federal Statistical Office recorded 424 million overnight stays

by tourists and business travellers. The total number of visitors again increased by three percent compared

to 2013. Will this trend continue in 2015? And that despite the introduction of the minimum wage and a

global situation that is politically and economically full of crises and risks? We analyse the figures for the

most important German destinations:

Berlin, Dresden, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg, Cologne/Bonn and Munich. How do the first

six months of 2015 measure up? Here is one fact in advance: a distance of just 50 km (around thirty miles)

separates the achiever of the year from the city in last place.

The basis for the analysis by Solutions dot WG is data from Fairmas. (The percentages used in the text

relate to changes over the corresponding figures for 2014).

Berlin

”Du bist so wunderbar, Berlin” (“You are so won-

derful, Berlin”) goes the song; the German capital

intrigues both Germany and the rest of the world

alike. There are many reasons for this, ranging

from the city’s advanced culture and its subculture,

its relaxed atmosphere and its authentic historical

places. The German capital is still No. 1 on the

list of top destinations for international visitors to

Germany and it plays in the big league of Europe’s

most popular cities for tourists, alongside London

and Paris. Arrivals and overnight stays have more

than doubled since 2004. This development is un-

precedented among Europe’s capital cities. The

New Year started successfully in the cosmopolitan

tourist and convention city; occupancy even in-

creased by 3% in January. This was made possible

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Congress), March began with the ITB tourist fair,

with many guests staying on for longer than in pre-

vious years. The annual congress of the Society

for Pneumology and Respiratory Medicine, as well

as the WASSER BERLIN INTERNATIONAL event

(congress and exhibition) also took place during

by employee-friendly long weekends at the turn of

the year, as well as by good occupancy figures

for the January trade shows: the “Grüne Woche”,

“Panorama” and the “Fashion Week” events. Af-

ter a rather disappointing February without the

Bautec trade fair and the Krebskongress (Cancer

Fig.8: Hotel Performance Berlin January-June 2015/2014

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

January 57,2% 55,3% 1,9 3,4% 82,6 85,1 -2,5 -2,9% 47,2 47,1 0,2 0,4%February 65,6% 63,3% 2,3 3,6% 93,8 95,6 -1,8 -1,9% 61,5 60,5 1,0 1,7%March 74,0% 69,4% 4,6 6,6% 91,9 89,5 2,4 2,7% 68,0 62,1 5,9 9,5%April 75,7% 74,2% 1,5 2,0% 83,5 78,2 5,3 6,8% 63,2 58,0 5,2 8,9%May 81,1% 82,6% -1,5 -1,8% 97,0 96,8 0,2 0,2% 78,7 80,0 -1,3 -1,6%June 84,2% 80,3% 3,9 4,9% 112,6 88,0 24,6 28,0% 94,8 70,7 24,1 34,2%

1.Half-Year 73,0% 71,1% 1,9 2,7% 94,3 89,0 5,3 6,0% 68,8 63,3 5,6 8,8%

*Source: Fairmas GmbH / STR Global, based on dates of participants with daily data input - state 01.07.15

explanation OCC OccupancyADR Average Daily RateRevPar Revenue per available Room

Hotel Performance Berlin 2015/2014*

Occupancy Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

3,4% 3,6% 6,6%

2,0%

-1,8%

4,9% 2,7%

-2,9% -1,9%

2,7%

6,8%

0,2%

28,0%

6,0%

0,4% 1,7%

9,5% 8,9%

-1,6%

34,2%

8,8%

January February March April May June 1.Half-Year

Occ ADR RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH /Data as of 01.07.2015

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

the month, so that occupancy and ADR climbed

upwards. Much better group business than last

year, increasing tourist arrivals and the Easter holi-

day in March all led to a 7% increase in occupan-

cy, with ADR up by 3% and RevPar rising by as

much as 10%. A highly positive trend, thanks to

demand in the group area, high-priced business

and convention trade, which the DDG Congress

and “ConhIT” would help continue into the fol-

lowing month. As the ILA is not held in odd years,

the merry month of May was marked by a ques-

tion mark right from the start. In addition, in 2015,

the holidays and long weekend around the first of

May, Ascension and Whitsun all fell within May it-

self, thus making the month difficult for business

guests. Occupancy and RevPar were down by 2%

while ADR stagnated. However, there was still no

reason for long faces because June had a number

of bright spots in a row: the Champions League

final, when room rates reached similar heights to

those achieved during the 2006 World Cup final,

the Hauptstadtkongress (Capital City congress),

the EAN Congress, the visit by Queen Elizabeth II,

and four complete business weeks. ADR soared

by 28% and RevPar climbed to a record level of

+34%.

For Berlin, 2015 has been a successful year so

far. Occ, ADR and RevPar all rose. The increase in

room rates (over 6%) has been particularly gratify-

ing. Are there signs at last of a reverse in the trend

towards basement prices that the industry has

long been waiting for? We hope so and will remain

focused on it!

Dresden

Even though Dresden has been the subject of

many negative headlines in recent months, tour-

ism has developed positively all-round. There

had been cancellations by tourists, especially

from abroad, following the start of the anti-Islam-

ic “Pegida” demonstrations in the Saxon capital.

Overall, Dresden recorded more than 2.1 million

visitors last year, an increase of 8.6%. The num-

ber of registered overnight stays was a good 4.4

million, of whom 800,000 came from abroad. The

number of overnight stays therefore rose by 7.6%

above the previous year’s figure. This positive

trend continued in January with an occupancy in-

crease of 8% while ADR rose by 5%. This led to

an 13% upsurge in RevPar. Industry experts have

justified this chiefly by the attempt to hike up room

rates to compensate for the statutory minimum

wage that has recently been introduced. February

meant major losses for the Dresden hoteliers, both

in the corporate and the leisure business sectors.

There were only a few conferences and meetings,

as well as two weeks of school winter holidays in

the city (occupancy was down 9%, ADR fell 2%,

and RevPar dropped by 11%). There was time for

an upward trend in March (something which then

did occur); the figures were agreeably positive,

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

though they weakened again in April. The strong

leisure business expected at Easter did not ma-

terialize due to the weather and there were also

fewer conference and group bookings, as well

as a lack of corporate business. May finally gave

the Dresden hoteliers grounds for optimism: The

holiday weekends generated better performance

figures. Added to this, the G7 summit of finance

ministers took place in the city at the end of the

month and there was a sold-out AC/DC concert.

There were no major trade shows in Dresden in

June, but there were some other attractive events,

Fig.9: Hotel Performance Dresden January-June 2015/2014

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

January 36,3% 33,6% 2,7 8,0% 68,6 65,5 3,1 4,7% 24,9 22,0 2,9 13,1%February 38,8% 42,5% -3,7 -8,7% 64,1 65,7 -1,6 -2,4% 24,9 27,9 -3,1 -10,9%March 53,9% 52,8% 1,1 2,1% 65,5 65,3 0,2 0,3% 35,3 34,5 0,8 2,4%April 62,3% 67,1% -4,8 -7,2% 69,4 66,9 2,5 3,7% 43,2 44,9 -1,7 -3,7%May 76,2% 75,9% 0,3 0,4% 80,6 78,5 2,1 2,7% 61,4 59,6 1,8 3,1%June 74,2% 73,5% 0,7 1,0% 76,0 74,2 1,8 2,4% 56,4 54,5 1,9 3,4%

1.Half-Year 57,3% 57,7% -0,4 -0,7% 72,2 70,5 1,7 2,4% 41,4 40,7 0,7 1,7%

*Source: Fairmas GmbH / STR Global, based on dates of participants with daily data input - state 01.07.15

explanation OCC OccupancyADR Average Daily RateRevPar Revenue per available Room

Hotel Performance Dresden 2015/2014*

Occupancy Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

8,0%

-8,7%

2,1%

-7,2%

0,4% 1,0%

-0,7%

4,7%

-2,4%

0,3% 3,7% 2,7% 2,4% 2,4%

13,1%

-10,9%

2,4%

-3,7%

3,1% 3,4% 1,7%

January February March April May June 1.Half-Year

Occ ADR RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH /Data as of 01.07.2015

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

including the movie nights on the banks of the Elbe

and the “Elbhangfest”. Although occupancy did

stagnate, room rates managed to improve by 3%.

Besides this, there was slightly less group sector

business in June, but more individual guests did

arrive, which influenced room rates significantly.

Is it due to the tarnished image of the city or the

exhibition and congress business that was low on

highlights? Is it due to the tarnished image of the

city or the exhibition and congress business that

was low on highlights? Dresden’s performance in

the first half of the year was mixed. While occu-

pancy was in the red (-1%), ADR and RevPar (up

2.4% and 1.7%, respectively) were satisfactory but

not overwhelmingly so.

Dusseldorf

Although Dusseldorf’s tourism professionals en-

tered the New Year with a successful 2014 annual

balance sheet (the fifth record tourist year in a row),

2015 has so far remained well below industry ex-

pectations. January already showed itself to be un-

settled. While the PSI trade fair did bring business

to the city, the IMA was cancelled by the organizer

– stagnation in ADR (-0.3%) makes nobody happy.

But there was worse to come, because RevPar fell

by 33% in February, mainly influenced by an ex-

tremely negative development in room rates (ADR

down by 25%). Dusseldorf was sorely missing the

Euroshop trade fair (which is held on a three-year

cycle). Four complete business weeks (Carnival

festivities took place in February) and overflow busi-

ness from the IDS in Cologne, as well as the “Pro-

Wein” and “Beauty” events, finally meant healthy

occupancy figures in the city. However, there was

only a brief sigh of relief, since business in April re-

ally went downhill with a 22% fall in RevPar, mainly

due to the huge drop in ADR (down 21%). This is

largely attributable to the absence of the impor-

tant “Wire & Tube” trade show (which is only held

every two years) in 2015. Hoteliers hoped in vain

for an improvement in leisure sector business at

Easter (Occ: down 0.5%). May was not a merry

month – occupancy weakened by 13% and ADR

fell by a dramatic 38%. The timing of the public

holidays this year resulted in far less corporate and

MICE business than in 2014. There were no major

trade shows and events, which resulted in a ma-

jor (46%), fall in RevPar. Hopes for June were not

thwarted, as the important GIFA trade show (held

every four years) and the DÖAK AIDS congress fi-

nally resulted in the high room rate levels that had

been hoped for. This year, Corpus Christi also fell

in June, so that 2½ business weeks were available

for corporate and MICE business.

The first six months of the year in Dusseldorf pro-

vide an almost perfect example of how much the

industry depends on the trade fair and convention

business. The city, which is accustomed to suc-

cess, suffered setbacks in terms of all three key

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

parameters: Occ -1.3%, ADR -12%, and RevPar

-13%. Just as before, weekends are difficult times

for the city’s hotels, because the number of tour-

ists on city breaks visiting Dusseldorf as a des-

tination is not nearly as high in Berlin, Munich or

Hamburg. Nevertheless, Dusseldorf, with its mix of

cosmopolitan lifestyle and Rhineland joie de vivre,

still has much to offer leisure guests.

Frankfurt am Main

The metropole on the Main recorded a successful

tourism year in 2014. With more than eight million

Fig.10: Hotel Performance Dusseldorf January-June 2015/2014

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

January 66,4% 64,9% 1,5 2,3% 95,3 95,6 -0,3 -0,3% 63,3 62,0 1,2 2,0%February 62,8% 70,7% -7,9 -11,2% 95,1 126,9 -31,8 -25,1% 59,7 89,7 -30,0 -33,4%March 73,0% 68,0% 5,0 7,4% 111,6 108,7 2,9 2,7% 81,5 73,9 7,6 10,2%April 59,3% 59,6% -0,3 -0,5% 88,9 112,9 -24,0 -21,3% 52,7 67,3 -14,6 -21,7%May 65,1% 75,1% -10,0 -13,3% 88,7 142,4 -53,7 -37,7% 57,7 106,9 -49,2 -46,0%June 72,1% 66,3% 5,8 8,7% 116,0 88,2 27,8 31,5% 83,6 58,5 25,2 43,0%

1.Half-Year 66,5% 67,4% -0,9 -1,3% 100,0 113,2 -13,2 -11,7% 66,5 76,3 -9,8 -12,8%

*Source: Fairmas GmbH / STR Global, based on dates of participants with daily data input - state 01.07.15

explanation OCC OccupancyADR Average Daily RateRevPar Revenue per available Room

Hotel Performance Dusseldorf 2015/2014*

Occupancy Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

2,3%

-11,2%

7,4%

-0,5%

-13,3%

8,7%

-1,3% -0,3%

-25,1%

2,7%

-21,3%

-37,7%

31,5%

-11,7%

2,0%

-33,4%

10,2%

-21,7%

-46,0%

43,0%

-12,8%

January February March April May June 1.Half-Year

Occ ADR RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH /Data as of 01.07.2015

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

overnight stays, corresponding to an increase of

7.3 percent, the hotels recorded more visitors than

ever before. The trade fairs, the companies based

in the city, the cultural institutions and Frankfurt’s

international airport all ensured that Frankfurt had

Germany’s highest proportion of both foreign tour-

ists and business travellers. The New Year began

quietly, as January business was below that of the

previous year. Strong event and individual tourist

business in the first two weeks of the month was

not enough to counteract the setbacks in occu-

pancy and room rate (Occ: -3%, ADR: -3%). How-

ever, February did have its positive side, something

for which the Paperworld and Ambiente trade fairs,

as well as the Carnival festivities, were mainly re-

sponsible. This development also continued into

the next month. The “ISH” in particular (held on

a two-year cycle) gave rise to a far higher level of

room rates (up 4%). In April, however, there was

no “Light & Building” trade fair, though Easter busi-

ness was particularly satisfactory, leading to a pos-

itive overall result (RevPar: up 4.4%). There was

a similarly balanced picture in May: While corpo-

rate business fell, the Techtextil/Techprocess trade

show did record a room rate increase of 4%. How-

ever, RevPar still remained 1% below last year’s

level. June in Frankfurt was positive in terms of

all three key performance indicators (Occ: +14%,

ADR: +31%, RevPar: +50%), thanks to the impor-

tant “Achema” trade fair (held every three years)

and additional individual pick-up, particularly in the

corporate sector.

Hamburg

In 2014, a further successive record year ensured

a solid 11th place in the ranking of European cities.

Hamburg has now left such destinations as Ven-

ice, Stockholm and Brussels behind. And Janu-

ary was also positive, with occupancy 3% higher.

Many hoteliers were able to record very good pre-

liminary bookings, as well as a significant growth

in demand in the MICE segment at the start of

the year. There was also growth in February (oc-

cupancy up 4% and RevPar up 6%) and in March.

Due to very strong national (INTERNORGA) and

international fairs (a medical congress) and more

days of events than the previous year, Hamburg

enjoyed a 4% increase in room rates and a cor-

respondingly high demand in the MICE sector.

April in Hamburg was marked by generally posi-

tive developments (Occ up by 0.5%, ADR by 5%

and RevPar by 6%). The very strong “Interna-

tional Aircraft Interior” trade show and the annual

Haspa Marathon were largely responsible for the

growth in room rates. The only downside was the

cool and wet Easter, which inhibited the desire to

travel and led to a decline of almost 3% in occu-

pancy, though ADR did increase by 2%. As usual,

this year’s international Hafengeburtstag (Harbour

Birthday) in May was able to generate high levels

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of demand. Occupancy figures for Whitsun and

Ascension were down on last year’s. The Rönt-

genkongress (Congress of Radiology), which was

held for the last time in Hamburg, generated high

levels of room rates. June was also positive with

the IAPH International Port Congress, good MICE

sector trade and particularly high demand in the

leisure segment. It almost seems as if the hosts in

Hamburg are completely spoiled by success. With

Hanseatic stability, numbers are rising with a conti-

nuity which even amazes industry insiders.

Fig.11: Hotel Performance Hamburg January-June 2015/2014

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

January 60,8% 58,9% 1,9 3,2% 93,3 92,8 0,5 0,5% 56,7 54,7 2,1 3,8%February 72,6% 70,0% 2,6 3,7% 95,5 93,8 1,7 1,8% 69,3 65,7 3,7 5,6%March 78,5% 77,6% 0,9 1,2% 106,2 102,0 4,2 4,1% 83,4 79,2 4,2 5,3%April 80,5% 80,1% 0,4 0,5% 115,5 109,8 5,7 5,2% 93,0 87,9 5,0 5,7%May 83,2% 85,5% -2,3 -2,7% 119,4 117,5 1,9 1,6% 99,3 100,5 -1,1 -1,1%June 85,3% 83,6% 1,7 2,0% 112,1 107,5 4,6 4,3% 95,6 89,9 5,8 6,4%

1.Half-Year 76,8% 76,2% 0,6 0,8% 108,1 105,2 2,9 2,8% 83,0 80,2 2,9 3,6%

*Source: Fairmas GmbH / STR Global, based on dates of participants with daily data input - state 01.07.15

explanation OCC OccupancyADR Average Daily RateRevPar Revenue per available Room

Hotel Performance Hamburg 2015/2014*

Occupancy Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

3,2% 3,7% 1,2% 0,5%

-2,7%

2,0% 0,8% 0,5% 1,8% 4,1% 5,2%

1,6% 4,3% 2,8% 3,8%

5,6% 5,3% 5,7%

-1,1%

6,4% 3,6%

January February March April May June 1.Half-Year

Occ ADR RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH /Data as of 01.07.2015

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Cologne/Bonn

The conurbation on the Rhine experienced a boom

in visitor numbers in 2014. A total of 5.47 million

overnight stays were recorded – a whopping 13%

increase. Cologne shapes up well in any European

comparison: it occupies 25th place in the ranking

of the 100 most popular city break destinations.

With so much potential, a breather was called for

in January; occupancy increased by 3% but ADR

fell by 2%, while RevPar languished at +0.5%. The

first two weeks of January are traditionally rather

Fig.12: Hotel Performance Cologne/Bonn January-June 2015/2014

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

January 60,4% 58,7% 1,7 2,9% 107,8 110,4 -2,6 -2,4% 65,1 64,8 0,3 0,5%February 69,2% 64,5% 4,7 7,3% 100,9 93,3 7,6 8,1% 69,8 60,2 9,6 16,0%March 73,1% 67,8% 5,3 7,8% 124,2 96,4 27,8 28,8% 90,8 65,4 25,4 38,9%April 67,7% 62,9% 4,8 7,6% 92,7 86,8 5,9 6,8% 62,8 54,6 8,2 14,9%May 74,2% 76,2% -2,0 -2,6% 104,2 96,9 7,3 7,5% 77,3 73,8 3,5 4,7%June 75,6% 68,0% 7,6 11,2% 96,4 86,5 9,9 11,4% 72,9 58,8 14,1 23,9%

1.Half-Year 70,0% 66,4% 3,6 5,4% 104,6 94,9 9,7 10,2% 73,2 63,0 10,2 16,2%

*Source: Fairmas GmbH / STR Global, based on dates of participants with daily data input - state 01.07.15

explanation OCC OccupancyADR Average Daily RateRevPar Revenue per available Room

Hotel Performance Cologne / Bonn 2015/2014*

Occupancy Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

2,9% 7,3% 7,8% 7,6%

-2,6%

11,2%

5,4%

-2,4%

8,1%

28,8%

6,8% 7,5% 11,4% 10,2%

0,5%

16,0%

38,9%

14,9%

4,7%

23,9%

16,2%

January February March April May June 1.Half-Year

Occ ADR RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH /Data as of 01.07.2015

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lacklustre, and many hotels in the region tried to

lure leisure guests to the city through low room

rates. In addition, the ISM (International Sweets &

Biscuits Fair) was absent during the month, which

in turn made February stronger. The “imm cologne”,

together with the “Living Kitchen” event, was the

subject of much demand and high prices as ex-

pected. February was a strong month in Cologne

and Bonn. Occupancy rose by 7% and room rates

by 8%, leading to a 17% RevPar increase. Along-

side the well-attended ISM, both the Carnival and

a consistently good business and leisure demand

ensured “no vacancies” signs. One development

that even managed to overtake the first month of

spring: An ADR increase of 29% seems to be a

record (RevPar: up by 39%). This was largely en-

sured by the very high-priced “IDS” event (held

every three years) and the high room-rate Anuga

FoodTec, (also on a three-year cycle), as well as by

two full business weeks. April (given such a basis,

expectations were quite restrained) was marked by

positive figures in terms of all three key indicators

at the end of the month. The “Interzum” trade fair

(every other year) and the Team Handball Champi-

ons League final ensured that May was a success.

This was less significant however because the pub-

lic holidays, long weekends and the FESPA trade

show (an event held at different venues) fell short of

expectations. June impressed with a strong busi-

ness sector and conference trade (ANGA COM,

VICTAM - together with the FIAAP and Grapas),

overflow business from the GIFA in Dusseldorf,

while the Helene Fischer and AC/DC concerts, as

well as four full business weeks, rounded off a suc-

cessful first six months in Cologne and Bonn.

The Rhine conurbation is a textbook example of

how strong conference events influence the ho-

tel industry’s profitability. Occ, ADR and RevPar –

none of these key indicators was down at any time

during the first six months.

Munich

For twelve years now, tourism in Munich has known

only one direction – upwards. In 2014, the Bavar-

ian capital recorded 13.4 million overnight stays –

an increase of 4.3% over the previous year. Most

visitors came from Germany and other German-

speaking countries, though the number of guests

from further afield also rose. Munich is a popular

destination, especially for Arab visitors from the

Gulf States. No sooner had these healthy figures

been announced than the statistics for January

appeared. These were significantly better than last

year (Occ: up 4%, ADR: 11% higher and RevPar

up 15%). The main reason for this encouraging de-

velopment was the “BAU” trade fair, which takes

place every two years and reliably ensures healthy

room rates. The good snow conditions also boost-

ed performance. Many guests take a break in Mu-

nich on their way to the ski resorts. In February,

hotels were filled thanks to the ISPO trade show,

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

the Munich Security Conference, as well as due to

good demand in the corporate and meeting sec-

tors. In addition, there was some healthy weekend

business, both over the Valentine’s Day weekend,

as well as for the Bayern Munich FC soccer games.

Thus, occupancy increased by 6% and ADR by

an impressive 10%, leading to a remarkable 17%

growth in RevPar. March turned out better than

predicted. Major events in Munich and Gasteig

brought good business to hotels near these ven-

ues. A cold and wet Easter put a brake on any de-

sire to travel: business was correspondingly poor

Fig.13: Hotel Performance Munich January-June 2015/2014

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

January 67,5% 64,9% 2,6 4,0% 128,9 116,4 12,5 10,7% 87,0 75,5 11,5 15,2%February 72,5% 68,4% 4,1 6,0% 119,1 107,9 11,2 10,4% 86,3 73,8 12,5 17,0%March 73,3% 70,6% 2,7 3,8% 109,3 108,8 0,5 0,5% 80,1 76,8 3,3 4,3%April 73,7% 74,6% -0,9 -1,2% 111,8 108,7 3,1 2,9% 82,4 81,1 1,3 1,6%May 80,3% 82,7% -2,4 -2,9% 125,5 130,4 -4,9 -3,8% 100,8 107,8 -7,1 -6,6%June 83,3% 79,6% 3,7 4,6% 127,5 125,1 2,4 1,9% 106,2 99,6 6,6 6,7%

1.Half-Year 75,1% 73,7% 1,4 1,9% 120,5 117,1 3,4 2,9% 90,5 86,3 4,2 4,9%

*Source: Fairmas GmbH / STR Global, based on dates of participants with daily data input - state 01.07.15

explanation OCC OccupancyADR Average Daily RateRevPar Revenue per available Room

Hotel Performance Munich 2015/2014*

Occupancy Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

4,0% 6,0%

3,8%

-1,2% -2,9%

4,6% 1,9%

10,7% 10,4%

0,5% 2,9%

-3,8%

1,9% 2,9%

15,2% 17,0%

4,3% 1,6%

-6,6%

6,7% 4,9%

January February March April May June 1.Half-Year

Occ ADR RevPar

Source: Fairmas GmbH /Data as of 01.07.2015

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over the public holidays. There was great demand

for the three full business weeks in April, and there

was also some impressive leisure sector demand

during the Easter holidays and at the weekends. A

major soccer match was also played on the last

holiday weekend. Due to Ramadan, bookings from

the Arab market came a little later in April. There

were no large trade fairs in April, hence occupancy

declined by 1%, though room rates did increase by

3% (RevPar: up 2%). May was rather muted. The

IFAT trade show is held in even-numbered years,

and the “transport logistic” event could not com-

pensate for the lack of business at high room rates.

The number of public holidays and the fact that

the Whitsun school holidays were held in May also

put pressure on room rates. In addition, downward

pressure was exerted on ADR from a great deal

of short-term top-up business, especially from the

individual and group segments, as well as from

wholesale trade. Occupancy declined by 3% and

ADR declined by 4%, so that RevPar fell by around

7%. June offered more time for business-sector

trade than last year but Ramadan began in the

middle of the month, meaning that Arab guests left

earlier. The G7 summit at Schloss Elmau only ben-

efited a few isolated hotels. But two very strong

trade fairs (“Intersolar Europe” and the “Laser

World of Photonics”), which were in great demand

at very short notice, ensured good results: a 5% in-

crease in occupancy and an 2% rise in room rates.

This meant that RevPar was 7% higher.

Conclusion

The “Big Seven”: Berlin, Dresden, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg, Cologne/Bonn, and Munich

are all venues for trade fairs, meetings, incentives, congresses, and events. Once again, analysis confirms

just how much these events shape the hotel industry’s key economic indicators. Overall, the trade recorded

a successful first six months in 2015. In particular, hoteliers in Hamburg and the Cologne/Bonn metropoli-

tan area recorded consistently good to very good results. Dusseldorf has been the loser over the first six

months of the year. The Rhine metropolis has had to cope with a weak trade fair and convention year, so

that all three key economic indicators were negative (Occ: -1.3%, ADR: -12% and RevPar: -12.8%). The

big winner is the Cologne/Bonn conurbation (Occ: +5.4, ADR: +10.2% and RevPar: +16.2).

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Page | 28

At the same time, analysis shows just how dependent the industry is on events. Declining approval ratings

for Dresden led to a fall in bookings (Occ: down 0.7%). If Easter is cold and rainy, it can wash away any

desire to travel.

The industry can look to the second half of the year with optimism. Germany, as a safe country with a high

and reliable standard of service and support, will continue to attract trade fair organizers, business activities

and leisure travellers.

Fig.14: Hotel Performance German Destinations January-June 2015/2014

2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.% 2015 2014 Var. Var.%

Munich 75,1% 73,7% 1,4 1,9% 120,5 117,1 3,4 2,9% 90,5 86,3 4,2 4,9%Berlin 73,0% 71,1% 1,9 2,7% 94,3 89,0 5,3 6,0% 68,8 63,3 5,6 8,8%Dresden 57,3% 57,7% -0,4 -0,7% 72,2 70,5 1,7 2,4% 41,4 40,7 0,7 1,7%Dusseldorf 66,5% 67,4% -0,9 -1,3% 100,0 113,2 -13,2 -11,7% 66,5 76,3 -9,8 -12,8%Frankfurt 69,0% 67,2% 1,8 2,7% 115,3 108,5 6,8 6,3% 79,6 72,9 6,6 9,1%Hamburg 76,8% 76,2% 0,6 0,8% 108,1 105,2 2,9 2,8% 83,0 80,2 2,9 3,6%Colone/Bonn 70,0% 66,4% 3,6 5,4% 104,6 94,9 9,7 10,2% 73,2 63,0 10,2 16,2%Leibzig 66,6% 66,8% -0,2 -0,3% 80,7 78,2 2,5 3,2% 53,7 52,2 1,5 2,9%

hnitt 69,3% 68,3% # 1,0 1,4% # 99,5 97,1 # 2,4 2,8% # 69,6 66,9 # 2,7 4,3%

Hotel Performance 1.Half-Year 2015/2014*

Occupancy Average Daily Rate in Euro RevPar in Euro

Source: Fairmas GmbH /Data as of 01.07.2015

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by:

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland

Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH specializes in market

analyses and the development of planning and controlling software

for the hotel industry. The company offers its international clientele a

hotel benchmarking platform, as well as various software applications

for the fields of budgeting, forecasting, controlling, management re-

porting and work process optimization.

As a strategic management consultancy, Solutions Dot WG develops

individual and customized strategies and solutions for companies in

the hotel, catering and tourism, and provides support in implementing

plans. Solutions dot also manages independent project implementa-

tion, is active in support management and interim management, as

well as in the total quality management (TQM) sector.

The Fairmas Hotel Report is edited by:

Nadine Kilian, Marketing & Communications Manager,

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, e-mail: [email protected]

Gabriele Kiessling, Consultant und Project Management,

Solutions Dot WG GmbH, e-mail: [email protected]

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FairmasHotel Reportin cooperation with SolutionsDotWG

Disclaimer

No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or complete-ness of the

information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Fairmas GmbH / Solutions

Dot WG do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you

or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for

any decision based on it.