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Fairmas Hotel Report

Edition April 2016

Performance Analysis: March 2016 in some major German destinations And a preview on the next three months

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Hotel Performance & Trends

04|16

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Fairmas Hotel Reportin cooperation with Solutions Dot WG

Occ: 73%, ADR: €93, RevPar: €68March was a strong month last year, and for a long time it seemed as if the Berlin hotels would be unable to repeat that success again in 2016. The month lacked the events that had boosted performance last year. However, corporate busi-ness was very strong up to the school holidays. The good weather that accompanied Easter and the school holidays came at very short notice. On Easter Saturday, a football match at the Olympic Stadium led to improved room rates. On the other hand, the ITB was a complete success. Signifi-cant growth in occupancy, as well as very strong room rates (as compared to the same event last year) meant that March 2016 ended with a slight increase in RevPar.

Occ: +3.6%; ADR: +7.1%; RevPar: +11.0%

In March, public holidays and school

vacations were still having a negative ef-

fect on performance. In contrast, the altered holiday

schedules do mean that April is marked by more busi-

ness days. The month slowly gained in momentum

following the school holidays. The half-marathon

event led to the first increases in room rates. Medical

conventions continued to create strong demand and

will lead to healthier room rates. Berlin’s hoteliers are

looking forward to April with optimism.

Occ: -1.0%; ADR: +0.3%; RevPar: -0.7%

The preconditions for May are similar

to last year’s. There will only be one full

business week. Last year’s “Re:publica” event was

very good, although ist success only came at short

notice. The Diabetes Congress is taking place over the

Ascension weekend, which is always heavily booked

in Berlin. The Whitsun weekend and Corpus Christi

mean that good leisure-sector business can be expec-

ted. The German Football Cup Final will also bring

some high-price business. The forecasts are perhaps

too cautious.

Occ: -2.7%; ADR: -14.1%; RevPar: -16.4%

June is forecast to be significantly worse

than last year. The hotels in Berlin will be

unable to repeat last year’s outstanding results. The

Champions League final, which led to very high increa-

ses in room rates, will be very noticeable by its absence

this year. Certainly, the ILA will ensure some demand,

as indeed will the Hauptstadtkongress (Capital City

Congress). A large number of convention inquiries and

some weekends marked by high demand also offer a

little hope.

04 05 06

March 2016 – Berlin is still growing

Trend

-1,6%

+2,0%

+0,3%

Occ ADR RevPar

© Fairmas 2016

Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 0.9 %

RevPar: - 1.5 %

Occ: + 8.7 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 14.9 %

Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: - 2.8 %

RevPar: + 1.9 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 3.4 %

RevPar: + 4.9 %

Occ: - 0.4 % ADR: + 2.3 %

RevPar: + 2.3 %

Occ: - -1,6 % ADR: + 2.0 %

RevPar: + 0.3 %

Occ: + 2.6 % ADR: - 6.5 %

RevPar: + 9.2 %

Occ: + 4.9 % ADR: + 27.4 %

RevPar: + 33.8 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 6.2 %

RevPar: + 5.6 %

Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.4 %

RevPar: + 8.9 %

Occ: + 0.8 % ADR: + 4.2 %

RevPar: + 5.1 %

Occ: + 6.3 % ADR: + 5.5 %

RevPar: + 12.1 %

Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16


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March 2016 – Significant losses in Dusseldorf

Occ: 67%, ADR: €114, RevPar: €77March in Dusseldorf was marked by a sharp decline (Rev-Par fell by 8%). Alongside the “Prowein” and “Beauty” events, which are held every year, the IDS trade fair in Cologne was absent this year. In 2015, it had led to a great deal of overflow business for Dusseldorf. In addition, this year’s Easter school holidays were in March only, so taking up one more week of the month than in 2015.

Occ: + 21%, ADR: + 37%, RevPar: + 67%

Expectations for April in Dusseldorf are

extremely positive. Hoteliers are predic-

ting tremendous growth, with RevPar up by nearly

67 percent. It remains to be seen as to whether this

will come about. In any case, the three full business

weeks (this year the school Easter holidays fell almost

entirely in March) are ensuring great demand. The

main reason for this is the “Wire & Tube”, which takes

place every two years.

Occ: +3.8%, ADR: +18%, RevPar: +23%

May will continue to be marked by strong

growth, with RevPar up by 23%. The two

days of the DRUPA trade fair will boost room rates

and are the main reason for this increase. In addition,

the public holidays are spread out differently: Corpus

Christi falls in May this year (last year it was in June).

Hoteliers are expecting a number of extra events in

the city, including the finals of the “DSDS” TV talent

show, as well as some concerts and “Japan Day”.

Occ: +8.6%, ADR: +36%, RevPar: +48%

June is looking extremely good overall.

The main reason is the DRUPA trade fair.

Hoteliers are already reporting booked out hotels.

The three remaining business weeks have been the

subject of much interest from the corporate and

MICE sectors.

04 05 06

-9,3%

1,9%

-7,6%

Occ ADR RevPar

Trend© Fairmas 2016

Occ: - 12.7 % ADR: - 38.0 %

RevPar: - 45.9 %

Occ: - 4.5 % ADR: + 4.1 %

RevPar: - 0.6 %

Occ: - 2.5 % ADR: + 2.7 %

RevPar: + 0.3 %

Occ: + 3.5 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 9.3 %

Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 6.4 %

RevPar: + 2.5 %

Occ: - 9,3 % ADR: + 1,9 %

RevPar: - 7,6 %

Occ: + 0.2 % ADR: - 21.5 %

RevPar: - 21.5 %

Occ: + 8.2 % ADR: + 31.1 %

RevPar: + 41.9 %

Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 6.8 %

RevPar: + 9.9 %

Occ: + 2.7 % ADR: + 15.2 %

RevPar: + 18.3 %

Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: - 0.7 %

RevPar: - 2.0 %

Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 6.3 %



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March 2016 – Further losses in Frankfurt Occ: 68%, ADR: €128, RevPar: €86March in Frankfurt was marked by a 1.3% decrease in Rev-Par. The “Light & Building” exhibition was held again this year; room rates were similar to those for the 2015 ISH trade fair. However, there were only two business weeks that could be sold for corporate and conference business because this year, the Easter holidays began a week earlier than in 2015. Last year, in contrast, there had been three whole business weeks.

Occ: + 9.4%, ADR: +9.5%, RevPar: +20%

In April, very positive developments have

been forecast in all three key figures

for Frankfurt. April is a full business month, which

will ensure major increases in ADR. Hoteliers are

expecting an overall strong demand in the meetings

segment. The MEX and the “Musikmesse“ music trade

fair will also be held this April. In previous years, the

IMEX trade event had taken place in May.

Occ: -2.5%, ADR: +6.7%, RevPar: +4.1%

May is still on course for growth, with a

RevPar increase of 4.1% expected. The

IFFA exhibition, which takes place every two years is

again being held, which is the main reason for the

upturn in room rates. However, it remains to be seen

as to whether such room rates can be upheld over the

long holiday weekends as May is packed with public

holidays. Besides that, the absence of the IMEX event

during the month will not help. Nevertheless, we will

have to wait and see.

Occ: -1.9%, ADR: -13.8%, RevPar: -15.4%

So far, forecasts for June have been extre-

mely negative. In June 2015, the Achema

trade fair was held. This event is always accompanied

by very high occupancy numbers and a very high ADR.

That is the main reason for the enormous fall in room

rates since last year. The Optatec and Texcare trade

fairs have not been able to outweigh the Achema event,

either in terms of occupancy or ADR. At the moment

though, the advanced booking situation does not yet

back this up.

04 05 06

-5,2%

4,1%

-1,3%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 5.3 % ADR: + 4.3 %

RevPar: - 1.1 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 5.8 %

RevPar: + 5.3 %

Occ: + 3.9 % ADR: + 11.1 %

RevPar: + 15.5 %

Occ: + 0.0 % ADR: + 0.1 %

RevPar: + 0.0 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.6 %

RevPar: + 6.0 %

Occ: -5,2 % ADR: + 4.1 %

RevPar: - 1,3 %

Occ: + 4.8 % ADR: - 0.6 %

RevPar: + 4.4 %

Occ: + 13.5 % ADR: + 31.0 %

RevPar: + 48.9 %

Occ: + 2.4 % ADR: + 4.5 %

RevPar: + 6.9 %

Occ: - 0.1 % ADR: + 3.0 %

RevPar: + 3.1 %

Occ: - 3.6 % ADR: + 3.3 %

RevPar: - 0.4 %

Occ: - 3.3 % ADR: + 1.7 %

RevPar: - 1.7 %



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March 2016 – Hamburg below last yearOcc: 78%, ADR: €104, RevPar: €81March figures for Hamburg were down on last year’s for all three indicators. The fact that the Easter holidays fell on the last weekend of March this year (in 2015, Easter had been in early April), as well as a weak “Internorga” event, meant that the performance was lower than in 2015. The absence of the EAHP Congress (an event held at different venues, this year in Vienna) was also a major reason for the weaker result. Re-vPar fell around two percent below last year’s figure. Overall, there were far fewer days of events this March.

Occ: +2.5%, ADR: +2.8%, RevPar: +5.4%

The hotel industry in Hamburg is

expecting a much better performance

in April (RevPar: +5.4%). This positive development

is because this year, the Easter school holidays were

held in March. The “Aircraft” trade show is already

the subject of great interest and the strong demand

is generating optimism. Besides this, the MICE

segment is already reporting high levels of advance

bookings this year.

Occ: -1.5%, ADR: +1.6%, RevPar: +0.1%

May is so far looking slightly positive

(RevPar: +0.1%). This is influenced by

the many public holidays in the month; in 2016, in

addition to the First of May, Ascension Day and

Whitsun, Corpus Christi will also be in May (in 2015 it

was in June) and thus only calendar week 19 remains

a full business week, which explains the decline in

occupancy. The ADR increase will mainly be due to

demand in the transient and tourist segments.

Occ: -0.4%, ADR: +1.7%, RevPar: +1.3%

June looks positive overall. A similar

trend to last year is expected. However,

according to some hoteliers, there are still low advan-

ce bookings in the tourist and transient sectors. The

absence of the Hafengeburtstag (Harbour Birthday)

this June (in 2015 it was held in June, not in May) is

also contributing to the lower occupancy numbers.

04 05 06

-2,0%

-0,1%

-1,9%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 1.9 %

RevPar: - 0.1 %

Occ: + 3.3 % ADR: + 5.0 %

RevPar: + 8.5 %

Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: - 9.5 %

RevPar: - 10.6 %

Occ: - 0.9 % ADR: + 2.1 %

RevPar: + 1.3 %

Occ: - 2.3 % ADR: + 3.1 %

RevPar: + 0.9 %

Occ: - 2.0 % ADR: - 0.1 %

RevPar: - 1.9 %

Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 6.0 %

RevPar: + 6.2 %

Occ: + 1.9 % ADR: + 4.0 %

RevPar: + 6.0 %

Occ: - 5.1 % ADR: + 0.4 %

RevPar: - 4.9 %

Occ: - 2.6 % ADR: + 2.5 %

RevPar: - 0.1 %

Occ: - 0.6 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 3.2 %

Occ: + 1.1 % ADR: + 3.8 %

RevPar: + 4.8 %



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March 2016 – Significant loss in Cologne/BonnOcc: 67%, ADR: €100, RevPar: €67Last March, there were two very strong trade fairs – the IDS and the Anuga. This year there was only the Eisenwarenmes-se (ironmongery fair), which was two days shorter, and for which demand was not nearly as strong as for the other two events. Room rates were nowhere near as high. In addition, the Easter school holidays fell almost completely in March and this led to problems in terms of demand and room rates. As expected, the desire to travel was more restrained. The hotel industry did regard the early Easter as one reason. On the other hand, a certain amount of caution was expressed due to the current circumstances.

Occ: +5.3%; ADR: +1.3%; RevPar: +6.8%

April should provide significant increases

in performance. There are no public

holidays and no school vacations. Things were very dif-

ferent last year. This means that there is time available

in April for much more corporate and conference trade.

Demand is already encouragingly strong. The FIBO

event (7 to 10 April 2016), is especially important du-

ring the month and it is growing stronger from year to

year. Demand for this trade fair is reassuringly strong

and the room rate structure more than promising.

Occ: -7.8%; ADR: -11.2%; RevPar: -18.2%

There is hardly any demand for May so

far. The large number of public holidays

means that the business weeks are completely dis-

membered. Besides this, there will be hardly any major

events during the month. Last year, the Interzum trade

fair was very significant for the performance in May.

However, it will be missing this year, just like the FESPA

event. Only the “Final4” and the “Drupa” events at the

end of the month are generating a little optimism. It is

still difficult make any forecasts about these.

Occ: +5.1%; ADR: +16.8%; RevPar: +22.8%

The forecast for June is very different -

increases in all three key parameters are

expected. June will be a full business month because

the public holidays all fall in May this year. The trade

fair situation is also very promising. In line with its

four-year cycle, the Drupa event is again being held his

year, and it promises to generate very strong demand

and high room rates. The ANGA COM is also ensuring a

positive mood due to the strong demand it generates.

04 05 06

-8,9%

-19,4%

-26,6%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 3.0 % ADR: + 7.5 %

RevPar: + 4.2 %

Occ: - 0.3 % ADR: + 3.7 %

RevPar: + 3.4 %

Occ: - 3.7 % ADR: - 6.8 %

RevPar: - 10.4 %

Occ: + 1.6 % ADR: + 4.8 %

RevPar: + 6.4 %

Occ: + 2.8 % ADR: + 4.7 %

RevPar: + 7.5 %

Occ: - 8,9 % ADR: - 19,4 %

RevPar: - 26,6 %

Occ: + 6.9 % ADR: + 6.7 %

RevPar: + 13.9 %

Occ: + 10.7 % ADR: + 11.3 %

RevPar: + 23.3 %

Occ: + 4.3 % ADR: + 10.2 %

RevPar: + 15.0 %

Occ: + 8.5 % ADR: + 30.3 %

RevPar: + 41.3 %

Occ: - 1.9 % ADR: + 4.4 %

RevPar: + 2.5 %

Occ: - 2.7 % ADR: + 1.4 %

RevPar: - 1.3 %



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March 2016 – Munich with many events in MarchOcc: 73%, ADR: €119, RevPar: €87March was a surprisingly strong month for the hotels in Munich. The EAU medical congress and the FAF trade fair, which takes place every three years (alternately in Cologne and Munich), had a very positive impact on occupancy and especially on ADR. Besides this, there was an international football match, as well as a Champions League game. March 2015 had to make do with hardly any events at all. In additi-on, the Easter holidays and the Easter weekend fell in March. Although they did not generate strong room rates, the occu-pancy situation was very good because of the good weather.

Occ: +13%; ADR: +77%; RevPar: +99%

The public holidays and most of the

school holidays are in March. That is

why there is time for more business weeks with good

corporate trade in April. However, the main reason for

the huge rate increases of almost 76 percent will be the

„bauma“ event, which is only held once every three years.

Things have changed remarkably since the last bauma

because there is high room availability in all categories

and on every day of this year’s event. Clearly, the pre-

sence of additional hotels is making itself felt in Munich.

Occ: -2.6%; ADR: +4.8%; RevPar: +2.1%

May is marked by a large number of

public holidays. Despite this, the forecasts

are getting better all the time. Such major events as

the Analytica and the ECE convention, as well as the

two days of the IFAT trade fair at the end of the month

all provide reasons to be optimistic. This year, the two

weeks of the Whitsun school holidays fall entirely in

May. The early Whitsun means that leisure-sector trade

will come very quickly and will, primarily, depend on

the weather. As a result, the forecasts are still cautious.

Occ: +0.1%; ADR: +4.4%; RevPar: +4.4%

June will be a full business month. Neither

public holidays nor school vacations will

get in the way of corporate business. Things were very

different last year. The hotel industry will still be bene-

fiting from the two days of the IFAT event at the start

of the month. Besides this, two lucrative trade shows

(the Automatica and Intersolar) will also be taking

place at the same time. These optimistic forecasts

thus seem entirely justified.

04 05 06

0,3%

8,5% 8,8%

Occ ADR RevPar


Occ: - 3.2 % ADR: - 4.1 %

RevPar: - 7.2 %

Occ: + 0.9 % ADR: + 6.9 %

RevPar: + 7.8 %

Occ: - 2.1 % ADR: - 1.1 %

RevPar: - 3.1 %

Occ: - 1.0 % ADR: - 6.8 %

RevPar: - 7.9 %

Occ: - 6.4 % ADR: - 8.6 %

RevPar: - 14.3 %

Occ:+ 0.3 % ADR: + 8.5 %

RevPar: + 8.8 %

Occ: - 1.2 % ADR: + 4.0 %

RevPar: + 2.9 %

Occ: + 4.6 % ADR: + 1.8 %

RevPar: + 6.5 %

Occ: + 0.1 % ADR: + 7.9 %

RevPar: + 8.0 %

Occ: - 1.3 % ADR: + 4.5 %

RevPar: + 3.0 %

Occ: - 5.2 % ADR: + 1.9 %

RevPar: - 1.3 %

Occ: - 6.1 % ADR: - 5.8 %

RevPar: - 11.4 %


The Fairmas Hotel Report is published by Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH, Sachsendamm 6, 10829 Berlin, Deutschland Solutions Dot WG GmbH, Kranzer Strasse 6-7, 14199 Berlin, Deutschland

Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH specializes in market analyses and the development of planning and controlling software for the hotel industry. The company offers its international cliente-le a hotel benchmarking platform, as well as various software applications for the fields of budgeting, forecasting, controlling, management reporting and work process optimization.

As a strategic management consultancy, Solutions Dot WG develops individual and customized stra-tegies and solutions for companies in the hotel, catering and tourism, and provides support in imple-menting plans. Solutions dot also manages independent project implementation, is active in support management and interim management, as well as in the total quality management (TQM) sector.

The Fairmas Hotel Report is edited by: Nadine Kilian, Marketing & Communications Manager Fairmas Gesellschaft für Marktanalysen mbH EMayl: [email protected]

Gabriele Kiessling, Consultant und Project Management Solutions Dot WG GmbH EMayl: [email protected]

Disclaimer No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or complete-ness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, Fairmas GmbH / Solutions Dot WG do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the informa-tion contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.

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