impact of climate change: vulnerability and … of climate change: vulnerability and adaptation...

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MOHAMED EL-RAEY

CHAPTER 4

Impact of Climate Change: Vulnerability and Adaptation

Coastal Areas

I. INTRODUCTION

Arab countries are situated in a hyper-arid to aridregion with some pockets of semi-arid areas. Theregion is characterized by an extremely harshenvironment, with issues including scarcity ofwater resources, very low precipitation, low biodi-versity, excessive exposure to extreme events, anddesertification.

The Arab region consists of 22 countries who areall members of the League of Arab States (LAS),10 in Africa and 12 in West Asia. It enjoysextended coastal zones on the Mediterranean Sea,the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Atlantic Sea wherelarge percentages of the population live in a num-ber of highly populated economic centres. Inaddition, growth trends of both population andtourism in the coastal areas have been wellobserved (Massoud et al., 2003).

In 2003 the total population of the region

reached 305 million, giving the region 4.7% ofthe world’s population. Over the last two decades,the population grew at an average rate of 2.6%per annum, with an increase in the total urbanpopulation from 44% to almost 54%.Meanwhile, the development and poverty situa-tions in the region are highly uneven and povertyis a serious problem in many Arab countries.Almost 85 million people are below the povertyline of $2/day, accounting for almost 30% of theregion’s total population in 2000 (LAS, 2006).

As a result of increasing populations and theexpansion of tourism, unplanned urbanizationand industrialization of almost all coastal centreshave been observed at high rates. The need forefficient transportation systems and a shortage ofstrategic planning, low awareness and lawenforcement have significantly contributed toincreasing pollution and a deterioration of thequality of life in many population centres.The marine side of the coastal zones of Arab

COASTAL AREAS CHAPTER 448

THE ESTIMATED AREA, COASTLINE AND THE POPULATION WITHIN 100KM OF THE COAST (%)TABLE 1

Sources: Modified after: (WRI/EarthTrend*, 2000); The World Fact Book**, 2006; Encyclopedia Britannica1; POPIN***, 2006, (WRI/EarthTrend,****,2000)

Country Area (Km2)* Coastline Population/1000*** Population Population within (Km)** Growth (%)*** 100 km of coast (%)

in 2000****Bahrain 740 590 753 1.8 100Iraq 435,052 58 28,993 - 5.7Kuwait 17,818 499 2,851 2.5 100Oman 309,500 2,092 4,017 2.2 -Qatar 11,427 563 2,595 1.8 88.5United Arab Emirates 83,600 1,318 4,380 2.3 84.9Saudi Arabia 2,250,000 2,640 24,735 2.4 30.3Djibouti 23,200 370 833 1.6 100Jordan 92,300 26 5,924 3.2 29Somalia 637,657 3,025 8,699 3.1 54.8Sudan 2,505,000 853 38,560 2.1 2.8Comoro 2,236 340 839 2.2 100Yemen 555,000 1,906 22,389 3.1 63.5Egypt 1,002,000 2,450 75,498 1.8 53.1Palestine (Gaza Strip) 27,000 40 841 - 100Lebanon 10,452 225 4,099 1.1 100Syria 185,180 193 19,929 2.4 34.5Algeria 2,381,741 998 33,858 1.5 68.8Libya 1,775,000 1,770 6,160 1.9 78.7Mauritania 1,030,700 754 3,124 2.7 39.6Morocco 710,850 1,835 31,224 1.2 65.1Tunisia 165,150 1,148 10,327 1.0 84TOTAL 14,211,603 22,105 262,628,000

countries is considered rich in its marine biologi-cal resources including a high biodiversity of fish-eries, coral reefs and mangrove ecosystems. As aresult, the coastal zone has been a very importantasset for the attraction of national and interna-tional tourism and an important contributor tonational economies.

The Arab region is therefore considered amongthe world’s most vulnerable regions to the adverseimpacts of climate change; it will be especiallyexposed to diminished agricultural productivity,higher likelihood of drought and heat waves,long-term dwindling of water supplies, loss ofcoastal low-lying areas and considerable implica-tions on human settlements and socioeconomicsystems (IPCC, 2007). Specifically, the impact ofsea level rise (SLR) is considered serious for manyof the Arab countries (e.g. Agrawala et al., 2004;Dasgupta et al., 2007).

Table 2 presents a comparison of the vulnerabili-ty of the coastal zone among various regions ofthe world according to specific indicators(Dasgupta et al., 2007)

While the land area of the Middle East and NorthAfrica region would be less impacted by SLR thanthe developing world generally (0.25% vs. 0.31%

with a 1m SLR), all other indicators suggest moresevere impacts of SLR in this region. In particu-lar, with a 1m SLR, 3.2% of its population wouldbe impacted (vs. 1.28% worldwide), 1.49% of itsGDP (vs. 1.30% worldwide), 1.94% of its urbanpopulation (vs. 1.02% worldwide), and 3.32% ofits wetlands (vs. 1.86% worldwide) (Dasgupta etal., 2007).

On the institutional side, some of the Arab coun-tries have established environmental regulationsfor the protection and preservation of theircoastal resources. However, without buildingstrong capabilities for monitoring, assessment andlaw enforcement, it is expected that the deteriora-tion of coastal resources will continue. Impacts ofclimate change and sea level rise in particular,should be added to the list of deterioration issuesof main concern.

Although some Arab countries such as Lebanon,Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeriaand others have already started assessing their vul-nerability to climate change in cooperation withthe international community, international sup-port is strongly required to include these issues inthe national policies and strategies of all the Arabcountries. The objective of this review is to present a gener-

ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 49

A COMPARISON OF IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON INDICATORS OF VARIOUSREGIONS, IN PERCENTAGE TERMS

TABLE 2

Source: Dasgupta et al., 2007

World LA MENA SSA EA SAIndicators

1m SLRArea 0.31 0.34 0.25 0.12 0.52 0.29Population 1.28 0.57 3.20 0.45 1.97 0.45GDP 1.30 0.54 1.49 0.23 2.09 0.55Urban extent 1.02 0.61 1.94 0.39 1.71 0.33Ag. extent 0.39 0.33 1.15 0.04 0.83 0.11Wetlands 1.86 1.35 3.32 1.11 2.67 1.59

5m SLRArea 1.21 1.24 0.63 0.48 2.30 1.65Population 5.57 2.69 7.49 2.38 8.63 3.02GDP 6.05 2.38 3.91 1.42 10.20 2.85Urban extent 4.68 3.03 4.94 2.24 8.99 2.72Ag. extent 2.10 1.76 3.23 0.38 4.19 1.16Wetlands 7.30 6.57 7.09 4.70 9.57 7.94LA: Latin America and Caribbean; MENA: Middle East and North Africa; SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa; EA: East Asia;

SA: South Asia.

al survey of the vulnerability of the coastalresources in the Arab region and to identify andexplore the need for proactive policies and meas-ures for adaptation, and institutional capabilitiesfor monitoring, assessment and upgrading ofawareness.

II. MARINE AND COASTAL RESOURCESIN THE ARAB REGION

From the coastal point of view, the Arab regioncould be divided into three major sub-regions.The following sections provide a brief overview ofeach.

The Mediterranean North African Sub Region

The Mediterranean is virtually an enclosed seabounded by Europe, Africa and Asia. It has a sur-face area of 2.5 million km2. The total length ofthe Mediterranean coastline is about 46,000km,of which 19,000km represent island coastlines. Itis characterized by a relatively high degree of bio-logical diversity. Its fauna is characterized by

many endemic species and is considerably richerthan that of the Atlantic Ocean for instance. Thecontinental shelf is very narrow and the coastalmarine areas are rich ecosystems. The centralzones of the Mediterranean are low in nutrientsbut coastal zones benefit from telluric nutrientsthat support higher levels of productivity. Amongthe ecosystems that occupy coastal marine areas,the rocky intertidal estuaries, and, above all, sea-grass meadows are of significant ecological value(UNEP, 2007).

In addition to its critical position at the middleof highly populated continents and its pleasantweather during summer, the MediterraneanSea is an important destiny for tourism. Inaddition, being in the middle of trade betweeneast and west it became an important trafficroute for ships. The sandy extended beaches oflow elevation on most of its coasts off of NorthAfrica attract tourism from all over the region.In addition, the gradual development of largeeconomic and industrial centres of Arab coun-tries such as the cities of Alexandria, Port Said,Damietta, Benghazi, Tunis, Casablanca andBeirut helped the development of industry and


POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER THE ARAB REGION. NOTE THE VULNERABILITY OF THENILE DELTA, IRAQ, GULF COUNTRIES AS WELL AS NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES.

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tourism among Arab and European countriesof the region.

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Sub-region

The Red Sea has a surface area of about 450,000km2 and varies in width from 30 to 280 kilome-tres. It has an average depth of about 500m, withextensive shallow shelves well known for theirmarine life and corals. The southern entrance atBab-el-Mandab is only 130m deep, whichrestricts water exchange of water between the RedSea and the Gulf of Aden (Gerges, 2002), hencethe sea is vulnerable to increasing pollution byland-based sources from surrounding countries aswell as the heavy shipping traffic through this pas-sage. The Red Sea is also considered a veryimportant water way for oil from the Gulf areathrough the Suez Canal to Europe.

Resources of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are asource of economic, social and cultural prosperi-ty, providing subsistence and commercial foodsupplies, as well as domestic and internationaltourist destinations. They also provide a strategi-cally important transport route for shipping(especially petroleum products) and trading ofrich and varied cultural heritage. Together, theyare also a globally significant repository of marineand coastal biodiversity, having the highest biodi-versity of any enclosed sea.

The Red Sea is a rich and diverse ecosystem. Itcontains fairly distinct faunal species subsets,many of which are unique. Approximately 6.3%of the coral species are endemic to the Red Sea.Mangrove and seagrass communities are animportant feature of the coastal areas and providesignificant productivity and input of nutrients.Inshore, halophytic salt marsh vegetation andsabkhas (seasonally flooded low-lying coastalplains) cover much of the coast (Gerges, 2002).

The Red Sea is characterized by its high biodiver-sity of marine habitats, life, corals and sea grass. Ittherefore attracts tourism from all over the worldall year around. A large number of highly popu-lated resorts and diving centres have been estab-lished with a variety of tourism services. Tourismcentres have been established at many coastalareas along the Red Sea including the Gulf ofSuez and Gulf of Aqaba. In addition, large tourist

and economic cities such as Sharm El Sheikh andHurghada as well as a number of industrial citiessuch as Suez, Jeddah and Aqaba are situated alongits coast.

The ROPME Gulf Sub-region

The ROPME Gulf sub-region has a surface areaof 239,000 km2, a mean depth of 36 m, and anaverage volume of 8,630,000 km3. Because of therelative shallowness and water clarity of thecoastal areas, the Gulf supports highly productivecoastal habitats, such as the extensive intertidalmudflats, seagrass and algae beds, mangroves andcoral reefs (Munawar, 2002). The most pressingenvironmental concerns include the decline ofseawater quality, degradation of marine andcoastal environments, coral bleaching and coastalreclamation (ROPME, 2004).

The sub-region is also extremely rich in terms ofmarine life, and it hosts many good fishinggrounds, extensive coral reefs, and abundant pearloysters. It has come under pressures from fasturbanization and industrialization. In particular,petroleum spillages during the recent wars andconflicts have placed severe stresses on the region.

III. ISSUES OF MAIN CONCERN

The Arab world’s coastal regions suffer from anumber of important environmental problemsincluding:

• Population growth, unemployment andshortage of awareness

Population growth rates in the coastal regions aremuch higher than those in other regions, whichare already high. The shortage of employmentopportunities is the main concern of many of theArab countries not only because of the low capac-ities but also of the shortage of specialized experts.

• Unplanned Urbanization

Many Arab coastal cities are expanding at highrates, without due consideration to planning forfuture needs. Many slum areas are being createdwith associated shortages of adequate sanitationand socioeconomic problems. In addition, theshortage of proper land use planning has createdmany problems of services and overconsumption.


Large scale structures have been built on many ofthe coastal areas without due consideration to thepotential impacts of sea level rise.

• Pollution and water scarcity

Excessive domestic and industrial pollution ischaracteristic of many coastal cities in the Arabregion. Even though there are many laws andregulations against domestic and industrial pol-

lution, very limited control is actually exercisedbecause of the lack of institutional capabilitiesfor monitoring and control.

Moreover, the situation of water scarcity that pre-vails over the region has been a decisive political,geographic and domestic factor in the region’sdevelopment. Contamination of ground waterand impacts of wastewater are widespread inmany rural areas.


A COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON LAND AREASOF ARAB COUNTRIES

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A COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE GDP OFARAB COUNTRIES

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Source: Dasgupta et al., 2007 Note: Countries not mentioned did not provide data

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• Shortage of institutional capabilitiesfor management

This is truly the main problem, as institutionalmanagement capabilities are needed for properassessment and control of pollution as well asother unplanned and illegal activities. There isvery limited information on land subsidence,especially in areas where extraction of petroleumhas been going on for a long time. There is nomonitoring of ground water salinity or soil salin-ity.

• Low elevation land and land subsi-dence

The spreading of low elevation areas on thecoastal zone constitutes a major source for the riskof inundation. This is a common problem in theNile Delta region and many of the coastal touris-tic cities such as Alexandria, Benghazi,Casablanca, Jeddah and Dubai. Land subsidenceincreases this risk, but it is not well monitored inmany of the coastal areas of the Arab coasts wherehuge extractions of oil and gases are taking place.


A COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE WETLANDSOF ARAB COUNTRIES FIGURE 5

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A COMPARISON OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONOF ARAB COUNTRIES

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• Lack of data and information

The near lack of data and information on variousaspects of vulnerabilities along the coastal zone isanother characteristic of the region. Very limitedtime series data are available on extreme events,changing sea level, ground water salinity and landsubsidence in the coastal regions.

IV. VULNERABILITY OF THE ARABCOASTAL ZONE TO IMPACTS OF CLI-MATE CHANGE

Very limited studies of the integrated impactsof climate change on the Arab coastal zones areavailable; however, there are a number of scat-tered studies on some cities (e.g. Sestini, 1991;

El Raey et al., 1995). In addition, many Arabcountries have submitted their initial commu-nications to the UNFCCC with a somewhatpreliminary overview of their vulnerabilities.However, a recent study carried out by theWorld Bank for developing countries hasstressed the vulnerability of the Arab regionand has estimated percentage potential impactsof sea level rise on countries of the region(Dasgupta et al., 2007). Figures 2 through 5present the results of this comparison of vulner-abilities of various sectors of countries of theregion due to a sea level rise of 1m and 5m.While a sea level rise of more than 1m is a mostunlikely scenario (in this author’s point ofview), a comparison of percentage impactsamong certain countries and across sectors inthe region is nonetheless very useful to consid-


COASTAL EROSION CHANGES AS OBSERVED FROM ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGES MORE THAN 30YEARS.

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Special analysis carried out for AFED Report by E. Ghoneim at the Center of Remote Sensing, Boston University

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er for planning.

The World Bank study clearly shows that Qatarwill be the most impacted country by sea levelrise in terms of the percentage of vulnerable landarea and in terms of the percentage of wetlandaffected by sea level rise. Egypt will be the mostimpacted from the points of view of percentageimpact on GDP and agricultural production.

Some specific sub-regional details are presentedbelow:

Mediterranean Sea countries

The Nile Delta region and the cities ofAlexandria, Rosetta and Port Said and theirvicinity are undoubtedly the most vulnerableareas in the North African region (e.g., El Raeyet al., 1995; El Raey, 1997a). The Nile Deltaregion is vulnerable to the direct risk of inun-dation of low land areas and the coastal areas

already below sea level and it is also vulnerableto salt water intrusion and increasing soil salin-ity of agricultural land. It is estimated that apopulation of over six million people lives inthese vulnerable areas and these may have tomove away and abandon these areas. Notingthat the Nile Delta region produces over 60%of the agricultural production of Egypt and theabove mentioned cities host more than 50% ofthe industrial and economic activities of thecountry, it is expected that the potential lossesin Egypt will be extremely high if no action istaken.

One of the most important coastal problems iscoastal erosion, which is also expected to changedue to alterations of the coastal circulation pat-tern in the region due to climate changes. Figure6 shows the dynamics of coastal erosion in thehighly vulnerable region of Rosetta city and itsvicinity. The rates of coastal erosion of theRosetta promontory, for instance, due to losses of


THE VULNERABILITY OF THE NILE DELTA REGION TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OFSEA LEVEL RISE.

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A SEA LEVEL RISE EXPLORER IMAGE ILLUSTRATING THE VULNERABILITY OF MANY OFTHE ARAB GULF STATES AS WELL AS IRAQ TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

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Source: Sea Level Rise Explorer, 2009

THE VULNERABILITY OF THE COASTAL ZONE OF THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.

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silt after the establishment of the Aswan HighDam, exceeded 50m/year. These rates are expect-ed to increase due to sea level rise.

In addition, negative impacts of climate changeon various aspects of trading in the region such asexport, Suez Canal revenue, migration of poorcommunities and socioeconomic implicationsare also expected.

The deltaic plain of the Medjerda River inTunisia is another example of an area vulnerableto a rising sea level. In addition, there are severalother vulnerable low land areas near the cities ofBenghazi in Libya, Casablanca in Morocco andNouakchott in Mauritania .

The ROPME and Gulf Countries

The Gulf is highly vulnerable at its northern tipnorth of Kuwait and south of Iraq (Shatt elArab). According to results presented in the SeaLevel Rise Explorer (2009) shown in Figure 8, itis clear that despite the limited coastline of Iraqon the ROPME Gulf region, the vulnerable lowland areas extend as far inland as near Baghdad.

The coastal areas of all Arab Gulf states are high-ly vulnerable to the potential impacts of sea level

rise; this is most worrying given that very limitedinformation is available on land subsidence dueto oil and gas extraction in this region. In addi-tion, many of the large and small islands in theGulf region are highly vulnerable to the impactsof sea level rise.

Bahrain is among those highly vulnerable islands.Figure 10 shows the projected impacts of sea levelrise estimated based on analysis of satelliteimages; almost 11% of the land area of the king-dom will be lost due to sea level rise of 50 cm ifno action is taken for protection (Al Janeid et al.,2008).

Red Sea Countries

Encouraged by its oil resources, the attractivemarine life and the favourable climate, major oiland tourist industries have evolved on the coastsof the Red Sea. Tourism here is based mainly onthe coral reef, sea grass, mangrove communitiesand associated rich marine life. Protectorateshave been established by the Egyptian authoritiesin the Sinai Peninsula along the Gulf of Aqabaand huge infrastructure has also been establishedby many countries in the region.

The coastal tourist industry in Egypt is booming

ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF VARIOUS SCENARIOS OF SLR ON THE KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN FIGURE 10

Source: Al Janeid et al., 2007

and large expanses have been developed intobeach resorts. The most intensively developedtourist areas on the Red Sea are the cities of

Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada. Significanttourist development has also taken place at manyminor towns on the Gulf of Aqaba coast as wellas at Safaga and Quseir on the Egyptian Red Seacoast, and the northern sector of the Gulf ofSuez. To an extent this has probably exceededcarrying capacities of the area. Evidence of reefdegradation due to tourism and other activities isclear even in areas such as the Ras MohammadNational Park in Egypt (El Shaer et al., 2009).Large recreational cities and centres have beendeveloped in Saudi Arabia along the Jeddahcoastline.

Saudi Arabia lies at the crossroads of three conti-nents, Europe, Asia and Africa. It extends from

the Red Sea on the west with a coast of 1,760 kmlong, to the Gulf on the east with a 650 km longcoast. More than 50 percent of the population ofSaudi Arabia lives within 100 km of the Saudicoastline. The coastal region houses cities, towns,and myriads of factories and processing plants.The interface between the land and sea is themain site for the import and export of goods andservices essential for the wellbeing and economicprosperity of the country. The coastline is thelocation of desalination plants that supply thebulk of the country’s drinking water, oil refiner-ies and petrochemical factories, and a number ofcement plants in addition to a growing recre-ational and tourism industry (Saudi Arabia InitialNational Communication, UNFCCC).

Because of the great length of the Saudi Arabiancoastline, only vulnerable industrial and populat-ed coastal zone cities that could be affected bySLR have been mentioned. On the eastern coastof Saudi Arabia along the Gulf, Dammam, RasTanura, Jubail and Khafji have been selected asthe most vulnerable coastal zone areas. On thewestern coast, along the Red Sea, Jeddah,Rabigh, Yanbu and Jizan have been selected asthe most vulnerable coastal areas.

In general, the coastal zone problems are alreadycritical in many parts of the Red Sea and Gulf ofAden. The potential impacts of the predictedglobal changes will be diverse and important forhuman populations. The major impacts will fol-low from one or more of the following mecha-nisms: shoreline retreat; flooding and flood risk;direct exposure to coastal environment; andsaline intrusion and seepage (Tawfiq, 1994).

It is expected that in the absence of strong insti-tutional systems for monitoring, a shortage ofawareness, and inadequate law enforcementcapabilities, the coastal resources in the Red Seawill continue deteriorating and that the lossesdue to climate changes in the region will be farless than those due to human activities.

V. EXTREME EVENTS

The Arab region is well known to suffer fromextreme events of many types: earthquakes,droughts, flash floods, dust storms, storm surgesand heat waves. The damage associated with


NATURAL PROTECTORATES ESTABLISHED IN THESINAI PENINSULA ON THE GULF OF AQABA ANDGULF OF SUEZ

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many of these extreme events has not been wellquantified. Recently, some areas have beenexposed to volcanic activities (Saudi Arabia), andsome others are exposed to snowing in the mid-dle of the desert (Algeria, private communica-tion). It is also well known that many extremeevents are affected by El Niño and/or the ENSOphenomenon. Two examples of cases with excep-tional floods resulting in extensive material andhuman damage are presented below (e.g.,Agoumi, 2003):

• Climate-related disaster in Algeria inNovember 2001

Extreme rainfall equivalent to an entire month ofrain in several hours was recorded, and windspeeds reached 120 kilometres per hour. Most ofthe damage was concentrated in Algiers wherethis extreme event claimed 751 victims andcaused damage estimated at US$300 million.There were 24,000 displaced persons and morethan 2,700 homes were severely damaged.Between 40,000 and 50,000 persons lost theirhomes and nearly 109 roads were damaged.Despite being forecast by Algerian and foreignweather services the magnitude of the human andmaterial damage was categorized as one of themost severe in the past 40 years.

• Climatic disaster in Morocco inNovember 2002

Morocco experienced some of the worst floodingin its history, with considerable material andhuman damage. Initial estimates put the damageat 63 dead, 26 missing, and dozens wounded,while 24 houses collapsed and 373 were flooded.Hundreds of hectares of agricultural land weredamaged; hundreds of heads of livestock sweptaway, and industrial plants sustained severe dam-age. The most important refinery in the kingdom(SAMIR) caught fire, leading to more thanUS$300 million in losses. This wet, rainy yearfollowed several dry or partially dry years.

Severe dust storms have been well known in theArab region for quite some time. However, theseverity of damage and the frequency of occur-rence have been observed to increase (UNISDR,2009). Figure 13 shows the trajectory of theKhamasin storms of North Africa and Figures 14aand 14b represent examples of satellite images and

ground observations of these dust storms.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate many ofthese extreme events by increasing their severityand frequency. New evidence also suggests thatclimate change is likely to change the nature ofmany types of hazards, not only hydro-meteoro-logical events such as floods, windstorms, anddroughts, but also events such as landslides, heatwaves and disease outbreaks, influencing notonly the intensity, but also the duration andmagnitude of these events. Most of these extremeevents cross coastal boundaries and are known tobe regional in nature.


DISTRIBUTION OF COASTAL CITIES OF SAUDIARABIA ALONG THE RED SEA AND THE GULF

FIGURE 12

TRAJECTORY OF KHAMASIN SAND STORM FROMNORTH AFRICA TOWARDS THE EASTERNMEDITERRANEAN

FIGURE 13

Source: Abdelkader et al., 2009


The output of research suggests that there is goodreason to be concerned about the dynamic, non-linear and uncertain relationships between cli-mate variability, climate change, and extremeevents, and their implications for human securi-ty.

The Arab region is not immune to other extremeevents such as cyclones, hurricanes and tsunamis.The latest events, cyclone Gonu in Oman andthe flood in Yemen, were very recent and clearlyillustrate the importance of development of earlywarning signs that require the adoption of poli-cies and measures for preparedness and riskreduction.

A recent analysis been carried out by Dasgupta etal. (2009) studied the potential impacts ofincreasing frequencies and severities of stormsurges based on best available data of humanpopulation, socioeconomic conditions, the pat-tern of land use and available Shuttle RadarTopography Mission (SRTM) coastal elevationdata. The results indicated that storm surgeintensification would cause additional GDP loss-es (above the current 1-in-100-year referencestandard) in the Middle East and North Africa of$12.7billion. The increase in impact on agricul-tural areas is significant for the MENA region,mainly because Egyptian and Algerian croplandin surge zones would increase from the existingestimated 212 km2 to approximately 900 km2

with SLR and intensified storm surges. The per-centage increase in surge regions for MENAcountries are shown in Figure 15.

VI. ADAPTATION MEASURES

Although the Arab region does not contributemore than 4.5% of world greenhouse gas emis-sions, it is among the most vulnerable regions inthe world to the potential impacts of climatechanges. The Arab countries therefore have tofollow strong programs for adaptation of all sec-tors. Adaptation measures should include at least:

• Carrying out a detailed vulnerability assessmentusing high resolution satellite imagery andrecent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to assessvulnerable areas and identify vulnerable stake-holders given scenarios of SLR of the IPCC andtaking into consideration land subsidence.

A SAHARAN DUST STORM OBSERVED BY A SATEL-LITE CROSSING THE MEDITERRANEAN ANDIMPACTING THE WHOLE REGION

FIGURE 14(a)

AN EXAMPLE OF A DUST STORM ON A SAUDIARABIAN INDUSTRIAL FACILITY

FIGURE 14(b)

• Establishing an institutional system for riskreduction for integrating and coordinatingresearch and carrying out training on thenational and regional scales.

• Establishing strong monitoring systems forcoastal zone indicators and law enforcement.Developing a database for national and region-al indicators of climate change

• Developing a Regional Circulation Model(RCM) for the impact of climate change onMENA countries and the Red Sea. Buildingcapacities and reducing uncertainties of predic-tions

• Adopting an integrated coastal zonemanagement approach to protect coastalresources with special reference to expectationsof future severities and increasing frequenciesof extreme events

• Adopting a proactive planning approach anddeveloping policies and adaptation programsfor no regret planning, protection of the lowland areas in the coastal region and coastalcities in the Nile Delta, Tunisia, Mauritaniaand Gulf region, exchanging experiences andsuccess stories.

• Upgrading awareness of decision makers onstrategic aspects and developing employmentopportunities for vulnerable groups.

VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This chapter has shown that the coastal areas in

the Arab region are highly vulnerable to thepotential impacts of climate change. Proactiveaction needs to be taken, both in terms ofexpanding knowledge and cooperation, andimplementing mitigation and adaptation poli-cies. The main conclusions and recommenda-tions are listed below:

• Although all of the Arab countries do not con-tribute more than 4.5% to the total emissionsof GHGs, the coastal zones of most of themare highly vulnerable to the potential impactsof sea level rise and the expected increasedseverity and frequency of extreme events.

• Even though some of the Arab countries haveestablished institutional capabilities for themitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, nonehas established such systems for adaptationand self protection.

• Excluding Tunisia and Morocco, no integrat-ed national strategic action plans have beenestablished for the vulnerable countries.

• A strategic assessment and risk reduction ofclimate change impacts must be carried out asa joint effort through the League of ArabStates.

• An early warning system of tsunamis for theMediterranean and the Gulf regions must beestablished through satellite systems.

• Proactive planning and protection policiesand measures should be initiated for vulnera-ble sectors with particular emphasis on thecoastal zone.


PERCENTAGE INCREASE OF SURGE REGIONS MENAFIGURE 15

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Source: Dasgupta et al., 2009

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