investor presentation - ypf · investor presentation second quarter 2015 . 2 ... ms. charvay mr....
TRANSCRIPT
2
Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management,
including statements with respect to YPF’s future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF’s plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future
crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF’s control or may be difficult to predict.
YPF’s actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such
as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments,
economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in “Item 3. Key Information—Risk Factors” and “Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects” in YPF’s
Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur.
Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it
clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.
These materials do not constitute an offer for sale of YPF S.A. bonds, shares or ADRs in the United States or otherwise.
Important Notice
4
Argentine government
Argentine government “Series A”
Free float
51.0%
48.99%
0.01%
Ratings
CCC
AA (Arg)
Markets
YPFD YPF
(1) As of 3/31/15
Caa1
N/A (Arg)
Corporate Governance
Other Members
Ms. Charvay
Mr. Soloaga
Mr. Nagel
Mr. Perincioli
Mr. Gil
Mr. Félix
Ms. Confini
Mr. Donnini
Mr. Valle (*)
Mr. Brizuela (*)
Mr. Uchitel (*)
Company
Executives
Mr. Dasso
Mr. Cuesta
Mr. Arceo
Mr. González
Mr. Alfonsi
Chairman of the Board,
Mr. Galuccio
Shares Class A
Mr. Kicillof
Shareholder structure 1 Board composition
(*) Members of the Audit Comittee
5
Revenues LTM 1
US$ 17,449 mm
Adj. EBITDA LTM 1 2
US$ 5,186 mm
Net income LTM 1
US$ 1,048 mm
Employees 4
22,032
Exploration
and production • Production 7: 250 Kbbl/d of crude oil, 39 Kbbl/d of NGL and 45 Mm3/d of natural gas
• Proved Reserves 3 4 in 2014: 675 mm bbl of liquids and 537 mm boe of gas
• Unique unconventional opportunities: Vaca Muerta, Lajas, Pozo D-129
Downstream -
refining and
logistics
• Total refining Capacity: 320 Kbbl/d 4 5 (more than 50% 4 of Argentina’s total capacity)
• High level of conversion and complexity
• Nearly 2,700 km 4 of crude oil and 1,801 km 4 of refined products pipeline
Downstream -
petrochemicals • The petrochemical business is integrated with the rest of the production chain
• Output Capacity: 2.2 4 mm ton per annum
Downstream -
marketing
• The country’s leading company in fuel marketing (56.5% 4 market share in diesel and gasoline)
• 1,542 4 6 service stations
Major Affiliates • MEGA: Liquids separation and a fractioning plant
• Metrogas: Largest local gas distribution company
• Refinor: Refining, transportation and marketing of refined products
• Profertil: Fertilizer producer (urea and ammonia)
• AESA: Engineering, manufacturing, construction, operating
and maintenance services to power and energy companies
Leading Integrated Energy Co. in Argentina
(1)YPF financial statements values in IFRS converted to US$ using LTM Q2 2015 average FX of 8.4. (2) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial
income (losses) gains on liabilities - Financial income gains (losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings. (3) Includes oil, condensates
and liquids; converted using 1 boe = 5.615 mmcf of gas as per 20-F 2014. (4) As per 20-F 2014 (5) Does not includes 50% of Refinor (13 kbbl/d). (6) Excludes 71 Refinor service stations. (7) Q2 2015 5
6
45%
19%
6%
5%
4%
4%
17%
35%
15% 11% 6%
6%
27%
59%
13%
6%
15%
7%
42%
16% 9%
9%
5%
3%
16%
Market Share Breakdown (%)
Source: IAPG
(1) Cumulative Jan - May 2015
(2) Cumulative Jan - Jun 2015
(3) As of December 2014
Market Share Breakdown (%)
Upstream Downstream
Gasoline 2 Diesel 2
Crude Processing 3 No. of Gas Stations 3
55%
15%
9%
13%
8%
57%
18%
5%
14% 6%
Others Others
Others
Others
Others
Gas
Production 1
Others Oil
Production 1
Leading Argentine O&G Company
7
Production figures as of June 2015 / Domestic Market Sales of natural only correspond to YPF (does not include YSUR)
Oil
business
Natural gas
business
Production
250 Kbbl/d Refining
305 Kbbl/d
Domestic
market
Domestic market
72% Domestic prices (gasoline, diesel)
18% International prices (FO, bunker, jet fuel,
petrochemicals, lubricants, LPG and others)
90%
10% Exports International prices
(naphtha, LPG, jet fuel, crude, petrochemicals,
fuel oil, soybean oil and meal and others)
Purchases
Imports (Gas purchased
by ENARSA)
+ Purchases
+
Domestic
market
Exports 0.2%
99%
Residential
+ CNG
Industrial
Power
plants
59% 17%
24%
Upstream
45 mm m3/d
Export
market
Integrated Across Value Chain
8 8
15 + years of industry experience each
Local and international experience
Seasoned Management Team
Miguel Galuccio Chairman & CEO • Before rejoining YPF, he was part of the management team of Schlumberger in London
• More than 20 years of international experience in the oil and gas industry, leading companies
and working teams in the United States, Middle East, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Russia and China
• Oil engineer from the Technological Institute of Buenos Aires
Daniel Gonzalez CFO
• Before joining YPF, he served for 14 years in the investment bank Merrill Lynch & Co in Buenos Aires
and New York, holding the positions of Head of Mergers and Acquisitions for Latin America and President
for the Southern Cone (Argentina, Chile, Peru and Uruguay), among others
• Bachelor in Business Administration from the Argentine Catholic University
Carlos Alfonsi VP Downstream
• Since 1987, he has held various positions at YPF, serving as an operations manager; the director of the La Plata
refinery; operation planning director; director of commerce and transportation for Latin America; director of refinery
and marketing in Peru; country manager for Peru; and R&M for Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Brazil
• Bachelor in Chemistry from Argentina’s Technological University of Mendoza. In addition, he earned degree
in IMD Managing Corporate Resources from Lausanne University and has studied at the MIT
Jesus Grande VP Upstream
• Before YPF, he held various positions at Schlumberger, serving as Director of Human Resources; president
of one of its service lines; head of Corporate Strategy Implementation. He has also served in executive
and operational positions in Kuwait, Argentina, Brazil, Angola and the United States
• Engineer from the National University of Tucumán
Fernando Giliberti VP Strategy and Business Development
• He previously served at YPF as Business Development Manager and Exploration and Production Business
Development Director
• CPA from the Argentine Catholic University; earned an MBA from the Argentine University of the Enterprise,
a Postgraduate Diploma in Management and Economics of Natural Gas from the College of Petroleum Studies,
Oxford University, and master’s degree in the Science of Management at Stanford University.
5
10
Source: Company data 2014
(1) As per 20-F 2014 – (2) Includes international reserves of 2.3 MBOE – (3) As of May 2015.
YPF has 92 concessions in the most productive Argentine basins
(total reserves 1P: 1,212 mm boe1) and 48 exploration blocks
in the country (44 onshore and 4 offshore) 1 Proved reserves: 69 mm boe
% liquids: 98%
% gas: 2%
Production: 8.7 mm boe
Cuyana
Proved reserves: 48 mm boe
% liquids: 12%
% gas: 88%
Production: 7.8 mm boe
Noroeste
Proved reserves: 312 mm boe
% liquids: 88%
% gas: 12%
Production: 44.3 mm boe
Golfo San Jorge
Proved reserves: 89 mm boe
% liquids: 19%
% gas: 81%
Production: 10.5 mm boe
Austral
Proved reserves: 692 mm boe
% liquids: 45%
% gas: 55%
Production: 132.6 mm boe
Neuquina 2014
Proved reserves 2 Production share 3
Liquids
56%
Gas
44%
Total: 1,212 mm boe Total: 194.2 mm boe
Pan American
17%
Wintershall
5%
Others
12%
Sinopec
3%
Tecpetrol
2%
Chevron
3%
Total Austral
5%
Petrobras
5%
YPF
43% Pluspetrol
4%
Source: IAPG, as of May 2015
Upstream - Significant Potential with Leading Market Position
11
Significant increase in activity Doubled investments
49 70
92 101 96
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015
46.9
41.3 38.1
34.2 33.4 33.9 37.2
43.5 44.9 43.7 43.9 44.6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15
256.8
244.9 240.9
222.6 227.4
232.3 241.6 240.9
246.0 249.8 247.2 249.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15
2,661
4,178
6,077
2012 2013 2014
Reverted downward trend in production seen in recent years; solid growth
Upstream Capex (US$ mm)1 Drilling Rigs Workover Rigs
200% 108%
Crude oil production (k bbl/d) Natural gas production (mm m3/d)
(1) Capex converted considering an average FX rate of 4.6, 5.5, 8.1 for 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively.
Recent Performance: Strong Emphasis in Production Increase
+57%
+10% (vs. 2012)
+34% (vs. 2012)
+45.5%
25
46
65 74 75
2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015
12
1,083
1,212
2013 2014
455
537
2013 2014
628
675
2013 2014
Liquids (Mbbl) Natural Gas (Mboe)
Total Hydrocarbon (Mboe)
+6.4% +18.0% +11.9%
Boosted proved reserves by 11.9%. Solid results coming from secondary recovery
projects, tight gas and shale formations, extension of concessions and acquisitions.
163% RRR 144% RRR 184% RRR
Reserves
13
NEUQUINA
GOLFO
SAN JORGE
AUSTRAL
CUYANA
NOROESTE
4,4
CHACO
PARANAENSE
Other Opportunities
Pozo D-129 (shale oil / tight oil)
Noroeste - Tarija
Los Monos (shale gas)
Noroeste - Cretaceous
Yacoraite (shale / tight oil & gas)
Chaco Paranaense
Devonian – Permian (shale oil)
Cuyana
Cacheuta (shale oil)
Potrerillos (tight oil)
Austral
Inoceramus
Neuquina
Los Molles (shale/ tight gas)
Golfo San Jorge
Neocomiano (shale oil / gas)
Tested & Producing
Upside from Unique Unconventional Opportunities
Vaca Muerta (shale oil / gas)
Agrio (shale oil)
Lajas (tight gas)
Mulichinco (tight gas)
14 14
Description
Area 30,000 km2
Gross
Shale oil & gas Vaca Muerta
Area 12,075 km2
Net YPF
Oil 77%
Wet gas 5%
Dry gas 18%
Windows 1
Oil
Wet
gas
Dry
gas
Source: SPE, Wood Mackenzie and YPF data. (1) Estimated over YPF net acreage
Vaca Muerta Unconventional Formation
Progress on Shale Oil & Gas Developments
Vaca Muerta Barnett Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Bakken
TOC (%) 3-10 4-5 0.5-4 2-12 3-5 12
Thickness (mts) 30-450 60-90 60-90 10-60 30-100 20-30
Reservoir pressure (psi) 4,500-9,500 3,000-4,000 7,000-12,000 2,000-5,500 2,500-8,500 4,200
Shale wells
in production
360 Shale wells
drilled in Q2 2015
46 KBOE/D
Shale Production
43.3
Loma Campana (Oil)
Horizontal well sweet spot
identified in Loma Campana
Three distinct horizons
evaluated with delineation wells
2015 focus shifting to more
cost effective horizontal wells
El Orejano (Gas)
First operated shale gas pilot
started, with positive initial results
2015 focus on completing the pilot
proyect with vertical and horizontal wells
Sufficient gas processing
capacity available
15 15
JV Partners: Chevron, Dow, Petrolera Pampa and Petronas
Loma Campana (395 km2 - 97,607 acres)
Objective: Vaca Muerta
Shale Oil with Chevron
Republic of ArgentinaNeuquina Basin
Neuquén Province
3.3% of total YPF’s VM acreage 1
(1) 395 Km2 / 12,075 Km2
Development model
290 Km2 (71,661 acres)
Directional wells upside
105 Km2 (25,946 acres)
Pilot: 130 wells and US$1.24 bn
YPF Operates
Full program
of ~1,500 wells (US$15 bn+)
• Estimated oil production: + 50 Kbbl/d
• Estimated gas production: 3 mm m3/d
La Amarga Chica (187 km2 - 46,189 acres)
Objective: Vaca Muerta
Shale Oil with Petronas
1.55% of total YPF’s VM acreage 2
(2) 187 Km2 / 12,075 Km2
Pilot consisted
on US$550 mm investment
~ 35 wells to be drilled
both verticals and horizontal
YPF Operates
El Orejano (395 km2 - 97,607 acres)
Objective: Vaca Muerta
Shale Gas with Dow
0.37% of total YPF’s VM acreage 3
(3) 45 Km2 / 12,075 Km2
Initial investment
of US$188 mm
16 wells to be drilled
YPF Operates
Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km2 - 45,200 acres)
Objective: Mulichinco Tight
Gas with Petrolera Pampa
1st stage
40 km2 of 3D seismic
34 wells to be drilled
YPF Operates
2nd stage
15 wells to be drilled
16 16
0.04 0.14
0.87
1.22
1.41
1.80
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
0.7 0.6 0.7
1.8
2.7
3.3
4.1 4.0 4.3 4.4
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Tight gas production
in Q2 2015 represents
12% of total gas
production, compared
to 8% in Q2 2014.
(1) Refers to Lajas prospective area called
“Segmento 5” in Loma La Lata block.
Loma La Lata (121 km2 – 29,900 acres)(1)
Objective: Lajas formation
• 100% YPF
• 4 wells drilled in Q2 2015
(93 total wells drilled)
• Depth: 2,600 m to 2,800 m
Total Gross Production (Mm3/d)
Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km2 - 45,200 acres)
Objective: Mulichinco formation
• 50% YPF – 50% Petrolera Pampa
• 12 wells drilled in Q2 2015
(61 total wells drilled)
• Depth: 1,600 m to 1,800 m
Total Gross Production (Mm3/d)
Tight Gas Developments
17
59%
13%
6%
15%
7%
Source: 20-F 2014 – (1) YPF owns 50% of Refinor (not operated) – (2) As of December 2014
Proved reserves: 85 M boe
% liquids: 98
% gas: 2
Production: 8.8 M boe
Capacity: 105.5 kbbl/d
Luján de Cuyo refinery A
Proved reserves: 85 M boe
% liquids: 98
% gas: 2
Production: 8.8 M boe
Capacity: 189 kbbl/d
La Plata refinery B
Capacity: 25 kbbl/d
Plaza Huincul refinery C
Capacity: 26.1 kbbl/d
Refinor(1)
D
C
D
B
Terminals
Products pipeline
Oil pipeline
A
(3) Cumulative Jan-May 2015
Downstream - Solid Market Leadership
Market Share Breakdown (%)
Gasoline 3 Diesel 3
Crude Processing 2 No. of Gas Stations 2
55%
15%
9%
13%
8%
57%
18%
5%
14% 6%
Others Others
Others
35%
15% 11% 6%
6%
27%
Others
18
4,545 4,723
1,126 1,171
2013 2014 Q2 2014 Q2 2015
8,098 8,166
2,043 2,167
2013 2014 Q2 2014 Q2 2015
278 290 292 305
2013 2014 Q2 2014 Q2 2015
930 899 1,039
2012 2013 2014
Solid demand reflected in an increase in volumes sold; pricing discipline and slight
market share growth.
(1) Capex converted considering an average FX rate of 4.6, 5.5 and 8.1 for 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively
+6.1%
+4%
Downstream: Recent Performance
Crude Processed (kbbl/d)
Downstream CAPEX (US$ mm) 2 Diesel sales (k m3)
Gasoline sales (k m3)
+15.6%
+4.5% +4.3% +4%
+1% -3.4%
19
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013
2014
2015
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013
2014
2015
Monthly Gasoline Sales (Km3)
Monthly sales consistently above 2014; market share unchanged.
Monthly Diesel Sales (Km3)
54.6% 57.4% 57.7% 59.3%
Gasoline Market Share
2013 Q2 2015
Diesel Market Share
2013 Q2 2015
+ 3.9% + 0.8% + 4.0% + 6.1%
60.0%
2014
57.7%
2014
Q2
2015
Q2
2015
Q2 2015 Downstream Results – Demand
21
857 1,041 1,115 1,048
191 258
2012 2013 2014 LTM Q2 2014 Q2 2015
1,737 2,202
2,445 2,260
743 627
2012 2013 2014 LTM Q2 2014 Q2 2015
14,762 16,514 17,576 17,449
4,413 4,443
2012 2013 2014 LTM Q2 2014 Q2 2015
4,391 5,128 5,186
1,367 1,392
27% 29% 30% 31% 31%
2013 2014 LTM Q2 2014 Q2 2015
EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%)
+17%
Revenues, Adj. EBITDA and Operating Income presented solid growth, mainly driven
by higher production and healthy margin increase.
Results
Revenues 1 (US$ mm) Adj. EBITDA 1 2 3 (US$ mm) & Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)
EBIT 1 2 (US$ mm) Net Income 1 2 (US$ mm)
-16%
(1) YPF financial statements values in IFRS converted to US$ using average FX of 4.6, 5.5, 8.1, 8.0, 8.6 and 8.9 for 2012, 2013, 2014, LTM Q2 2015, Q2 2014 and Q2 2015 respectively
(2) Considers non recurrent result for Q2 2013, not including a non cash provision of ARS 855 mm relating to claims arising from discontinuity of gas export contracts to Brazil in 2009
(3) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (Losses) gains on liabilities -
Financial income gains (Losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings
+2%
+35%
+6%
+11% +7%
+1%
22
1,428
1,123
Q2 2014 Q2 2015
(1) Cash converted to US$ using EOP FX rate of 8.0 and 9.0; Cash flow, Net financing and Capex converted to US$ using average of LTM Q2 2015 FX rate of 8.6.
(2) Includes effect of changes in exchange rates.
(3) Effective spendings in fixed assets acquisitions during the year .
(4) Converted to US$ using average FX rate of 8.0 and 8.9 for Q2 2014 and Q2 2015, respectively.
2 3
-21%
Consolidated statement of cash flows 1 (US$ mm) Cash flow from operations 4 (US$ mm)
Cash Flow From Operations
Successfully financed increased capex with cash flow from operations and local
and international financing, while maintaining a cash cushion and a strong balance sheet.
1,440 1,576
5,802
1,201
-6,867
Cash at the end ofQ2 2014
Cashflow fromoperations
Net financing Capex Cash at the end ofQ2 2015
23
1,434
Cash 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 +2020
Peso denominated debt:
26% of total debt
Financial debt amortization schedule (1) (2) (in millions of USD)
Average interest rates of 7.54%
in USD and 23.56% in pesos
(1) As of June 30, 2015, does not include consolidated companies
(2) Converted to USD using the June 30, 2015 exchange rate of Ps 9.0 to U.S.$1.00.
Cash position covers debt maturities for next 12 months.
Continued to extend the average life of debt.
Average life of almost
4.9 years
Debt profile highlights
Financial Situation Update (1)
24 24
Balance sheet 6/30/15 (Ps million)
12/31/14 (Ps million)
VAR % 2015/2014
Cash & ST investments 14,238 9,758 46%
Fixed assets 180,138 156,930 15%
Other assets 46,838 41,866 12%
Total assets 241,214 208,554 16%
Loans 68,941 49,305 40%
Liabilities 90,507 86,468 5%
Total Liabilities 159,448 135,773 17%
Shareholders’ equity 81,766 72,781 12%
Source: YPF financial statements
Consolidated Balance Sheet
25 25
Income
statement
12 months
2014 (Ps million)
12 months
2013 (Ps million)
VAR % 2014/2013
6M 2015 (Ps million)
6M 2014 (Ps million)
VAR % 6M 2014 /
6M 2013
Revenues 141,942 90,113 58% 74,259 65,994 13%
Operating income 19,742 11,160 77% 10,047 10,334 -3%
Adj. EBITDA 1 41,412 23,107 79% 22,604 19,372 17%
Net income 2 9,002 5,125 76% 4,424 4,407 0%
Source: YPF financial statements (1) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (losses) gains on liabilities -
Financial income gains (losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings
(2) Attributable to controlling shareholder.
Consolidated Income Statement
27 27
Continued to deliver solid results despite challenging
global oil price environment and the effects of a strong peso
Strong local demand for our main products
Sound cash position raised early in the year
Tight and shale gas development progressing well;
shale oil development addressing learning curve challenges
Summary