investor presentation review of 1q fy2019 · hcmc: cbre vietnam property overview q1 2017 (forecast...
TRANSCRIPT
Investor Presentation
Review of 1Q FY2019
Version 1.2
This Investor Presentation should be read in conjunction with the JKH Annual Report 2017/18 to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the drivers and strategies of our businesses
About JKH
▪ Market cap of USD 1.30 billion
▪ No controlling shareholder - 98.5% free float
▪ Debt : Equity ratio of 16%
▪ The Board comprises of three Executive Directors and five
Independent Non-Executive Directors
2
Contribution to net profits; a gradual rebalancing of portfolio profitability
2015/16
Note: The above excludes the contribution from Other including Information Technology and Plantations services
2016/17
PAT attributable to equity holders
2017/18
▪ The Group has consciously driven the shift in the composition of its earnings with a greater contribution from higher ROCE earning industry groups such as Consumer Foods, Retail and Financial Services
▪ 2017/18 excludes the one-off surplus transfer of Rs.3.38 billion at Union Assurance PLC▪ The decline in contribution from the Property industry group is due to revenue of residential apartments
at Cinnamon Life not being recognised
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22%
20%
5%11%
8%
34%
Transportation
Lesiure
Property
Consumer Foods
Retail
FinancialServices
23%
32%4%
17%
10%
15%21%
31%
10%
16%
7%
14%
Cumulative profitability update : for the year ended 31 March 2018
PAT to equity holders of JKH
Total PAT 21,021 16,275 29
Diluted earnings per share (Rs.) 15.15 11.84 28
Recurring PAT 18,320 16,119 14
Refer page 62 of the JKH Annual Report 2017/18 for commentary on recurring adjustments
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Industry GroupFY2018 FY2017 YoY Growth
(%)(Rs. Million) (Rs. Million)
Transportation 3,073 2,968 4
Leisure 2,822 4,165 (32)
Property 745 508 47
Consumer Foods 1,515 2,192 (31)
Retail 1,145 1,306 (12)
Financial Services 8,016 1,978 305
Profitability update : Q1 FY2019
PAT to equity holders of JKH
Industry GroupQ1 FY2019
(Rs. Million)Q1 FY2018
(Rs. Million)YoY Growth (%)
Transportation 827 770 7
Leisure* (224) 100 (324)
Property (3) 42 (107)
Consumer Foods 194 366 (47)
Retail 144 283 (49)
Financial Services 527 235 124
Total PAT 2,186 2,833 (23)
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*Note profitability was impacted by the closure of “Cinnamon Hakura Huraa Maldives” for reconstruction, partial closure of “Ellaidhoo Maldives by Cinnamon”. “Bentota Beach by Cinnamon” was closed for the construction of a new hotel in May 2017 and is scheduled to open by end 2019.
Note the following adjustments:1) The above graph excludes the capital employed at Cinnamon Life as it is a project under development2) Investment property and revaluation gains/losses for FY16 ,FY17 and FY183) 2013 Rights issue funds, 2015 and 2016 Warrant funds and debt drawn at Cinnamon Life4) Capital employed in non-operational properties of the Group has been allocated to “Property Excl. Cinnamon Life”5) The adjusted capital employed considers the effective share based on the ownership
Adjusted effective capital employed
(Rs.bn)
Portfolio evaluation 2017/18; returns vs. effective capital deployed
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
10
20
30
40
50
60
Industry group % of effective capital employed
Financial Services 5
Retail 2
Consumer Foods 3
Information Technology 1
Transportation 9
Leisure 20
Property (Excl. Cinnamon Life) 10
Cinnamon Life 20
Financial Services - 54%
Retail - 36%
Consumer Foods - 34%
IT - 21%Transportation - 18%
Leisure - 8%
Property (Excl. Cinnamon Life) - 6%
Cinnamon Life – (0.1%)
▪ In addition, the Holding Company accounts for 28 per cent of effective capital employed (Rs.45 bn), which consists primarily of cash
Hurdle Rate - 15%
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Investment pipeline of over USD 600 million during FY2019 and FY2020
▪ Aggressive investment pipeline exceeding USD 600 million over the next two years. Given the gestation period, the realisation of benefits from these investments is expected to accrue from FY2021 onwards
▪ Approximately USD 160 million of these investments to be funded through available/internally generated cash. Some of the key projects include:
Project Expected completion
Cinnamon Life CY2020
Reconstruction of Bentota Beach by Cinnamon End 2019
Reconstruction of Cinnamon Hakura Huraa Maldives End 2019
Cinnamon red Kandy FY2021
Frozen Confectionery manufacturing plant Completed 1Q FY2019
Roll out of 80 Retail outlets FY2019 & FY2020
Retail Centralised Distribution Centre 2H FY2019
JK Logistics - construction of a warehouse FY2020
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Leisure - overview
▪ Chain of Resort hotels in Sri Lanka
‾ 8 Resort hotels in strategic tourist destinations (1,000 rooms)
‾ 10% of the country’s 4-5 star class tourist accommodation
▪ 2 five star city hotels in Colombo (847 rooms)
▪ 240 roomed lean luxury hotel managed by Cinnamon; “Cinnamon red”
▪ 3 Resort properties in the Maldives (340 rooms)
▪ Established hotel brand – Cinnamon
▪ Leading inbound tour operator in Sri Lanka
▪ Tour operator partners include global players such as Thomas Cook, Kuoni, Hotel
Plan and Virgin Holidays
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▪ Greater focus on asset light investment models as a part of
the strategy to enhance the ‘Cinnamon’ footprint in Sri Lanka
▪ Land bank of 173 acres of freehold and 127 acres of
leasehold land in addition to 517 acres of leasehold land in
Digana
▪ Of the total freehold land acreage owned, a total of 96
acres of freehold land are in key tourist hotspots:
▪ Ahungalla (Southern Province) : 10.9 acres
▪ Trincomalee (Eastern Province) : 14.6 acres
▪ Nilaveli (Eastern Province) : 41.7 acres
▪ Wirawila (Southern Province) : 25.2 acres
▪ Nuwaraeliya (Central Province) : 3.4 acres
Round trip offering in key tourist destinations; further potential to expand the ‘Cinnamon’ footprint
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Sector
FY2018 FY2017
Occupancy (%) ARR(US $) EBITDA Margin (%)
Occupancy (%)
ARR (US $) EBITDA Margin (%)
City Hotels* 64 127 27 69 133 36
Resorts in Sri Lanka 81 91 28 80 93 33
Resorts in Maldives 82 263 24 89 261 33
SectorQ1 FY2019 Q1 FY2018
Occupancy (%) ARR (US $) Occupancy (%) ARR (US $)
City Hotels* 43 128 58 125
Resorts in Sri Lanka 74 69 73 74
Resorts in Maldives 73 298 76 266
*Note City Hotels occupancy and ARR excludes Cinnamon red
Occupancies and average room rates
▪ City Hotels occupancies and ARRs were impacted by the increase in room inventory
▪ The decrease in EBITDA margins of the Sri Lankan Resorts segment is on account of the closure of “Bentota Beach by Cinnamon”
▪ Maldivian Resorts affected by the partial closure of “Cinnamon Dhonveli” and “Ellaidhoo by Cinnamon” for refurbishment
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YearTourist arrivals
(In 000’s)Growth (%)
2010 654 46
2011 856 31
2012 1,006 18
2013 1,275 27
2014 1,527 20
2015 1,798 18
2016 2,051 14
2017 2,116 3
Jan-Jul’18 1,382 14
Arrivals from China and India
Year China India
2014 128,166 242,734
2015 214,783 316,247
2016 271,577 356,729
2017 268,952 384,628
Jan-Jul ‘18 163,754 237,369
▪ Tourist arrivals from January- July 2018 was 1,382,476 a growth of 13.7% as compared to the 1,215,926 recorded in the comparative period of the previous year
▪ Arrivals for the quarter (April- June 2018) increased by 12.6%
Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority
Encouraging growth momentum of tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Annual tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka (‘000)
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Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority
Significant growth in Asian arrivals to Sri Lanka
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tou
rist
Arr
ival
s
Calendar Year
Source: Governmental tourism websites
Tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka lag well below regional peers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Cambodia Sri Lanka
Arr
ival
s (
Mn
s)
1990 2017 Actual/Target
13
60,000
31,79030,114
26,113
9,100 7,6005,019
Bangkok Manila Kuala Lampur Jakarta Ho Chi Minh Hanoi Colombo
Room inventory in Colombo lags far behind other popular regional capital cities
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▪ Colombo is increasingly becoming an attractive location for City Hotel developments
▪ Expected 5-star room supply:
Development No. of roomsYear of
completion
Cinnamon Life 800 2020
ITC 400 2021
Ritz Carlton 450 2022
Total rooms 1,650
▪ “Cinnamon Life” is slated for completion in the calendar year 2020 with the residential apartments and office complex ready for hand over and occupation by early 2020
Pipeline of room inventory to support arrivals trajectory
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Property - overview
▪ “John Keells Properties”; explore property development opportunities by leveraging on brand equity
▪ Focused strategies for expansion via developer/landowner tie ups
▪ Catering to different target market segments:▪ Luxe Spaces▪ Metropolitan Spaces▪ Suburban Spaces
▪ High-rise apartment complexes completed▪ “7th Sense” on Gregory’s Road▪ OnThree20▪ The Emperor▪ The Monarch
“7th Sense” on Gregory’s Road
OnThree20
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▪ Low levels of urbanisation within Sri Lanka in comparison to regional peers
▪ Annual condominium supply far below regional peers
Source: KL: CBRE property market outlook 1Q 2018 (forecast for 2018)HCMC: CBRE Vietnam property overview Q1 2017 (forecast for 2018)CMB: Internal Estimates (forecast for 2018)
Industry potential
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53,796
38,000
2,187
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
KL Ho Chi Minh City Colombo
Annual condominium supply in regional cities
▪ Key real-estate sites in Colombo;
City Centre
▪ Cinnamon Grand premises : 8.03 acres (freehold land)
▪ Cinnamon Lakeside premises : 7.65 acres (leasehold land till 2081)
▪ Cinnamon Life : 10.13 acres (under development)
Developable freehold land within the city limits
▪ Vauxhall Street, Colombo 2 : 9.38 acres
▪ Union place, Colombo2 : 0.58 acres
▪ Mackinnons Keells, Colombo 1 : 0.45 acres
▪ Keells Realtors, Colombo 15 : 1.22 acres
▪ Two neighbourhood malls, one with freehold land of approximately 6.6 acres, in addition to a 17.7 acre land extent located in an emerging township, identified under the Government led urban development strategy (Megapolis)
One of the largest privately held land banks in prime city locations
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Developable land bank of over 36 acres in central Colombo
▪ Prime developable land bank of over 36 acres held in central Colombo
▪ Opportunities for development at land banks held in Crescat City and Cinnamon Lakeside
Vauxhall street land bank:
▪ Prime freehold land extent of 9.38 acres, to be developed with Finlays Colombo Limited
▪ Located in close proximity to the Beira lake water front which is earmarked for development of recreational and residential projects by the UDA
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Cinnamon Lakeside
7.40 acres leasehold land
Vauxhall Street
9.3 acres freehold land
Union Place
1.5 acres
Crescat City
8.03 acres freehold land
Cinnamon Life
7.1 acres freehold
3.03 acres leasehold
Developable freehold land of approximately 25 acres in close proximity to Colombo city
▪ Greater connectivity and reduction in travel time to Colombo city post construction of the outer circular expressway
▪ Direct connectivity to the Port City Colombo and a multi modal transportation hub to be developed
▪ Opportunity to expand into residential apartment projects in proximity to the Colombo city
Colombo - Katunayake expressway/ outer circular expressway connecting to the southern expressway
Port access elevated highway
Bandaranaike International
Airport
Thudella 18 Acres
freehold
Kapuwatta 6.6
Acres freehold
Port City Development
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Robust development pipeline; on going developments
1. Cinnamon Life
• Revenue recognition of Cinnamon Life will be on completion in CY2020
2. “Tri-Zen”- an 891 apartment residential development in central Colombo, with expected completion in FY2022/23 (pre-sales have commenced)
3. Master planning has been initiated for the 18-acre land under JK Thudella Properties (Private) Limited
4. Master planning has been initiated for the jointly held 9.38-acre property under Vauxhall Land Development (Private) Limited (VLDL)
5. Finalising the acquisition of approximately 100 perches of land located in the heart of Colombo, for a niche residential development which is expected to be launched in 4Q FY2019
6. Future development of the land bank held at Rajawella Holdings Limited discussed in detail overleaf
Cinnamon Life Total unitsNumber of units sold as at
30 June ‘18The Residence at Cinnamon Life 231 132
The Suites at Cinnamon Life 196 107
Cinnamon Life - commercial complex 10 floors 4 floors
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Rajawella Holdings Limited (RHL)
▪ Owners of a majority stake in RHL to complement the Group’s leisure and property portfolios
▪ The 500 acre land in Digana includes an 18-hole, Donald Steel designed, Golf Course and developable land extent of approximately 80 acres
▪ Currently developing the master plan to maximise the development potential of the land plot
▪ Troon International has taken over the management of the course and the refurbishment of the course commenced in February 2018
▪ Expected appreciation of land value with the completion of the central expressway
▪ Development and sale of properties such as villas, club house facilities, activity zones and possible operation of a hotel in the long term
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Robust development pipeline: Scenic 500 acre land bank with an 18-hole golf course
Cinnamon Life Integrated Resort
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Integrated development in Colombo
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Integrated development in Colombo
25
Cinnamon Life – construction progress
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27
Conferencing ; capacity (4,837 pax) in three venues and car park facility (2,450 slots)
800 guest room hotel. Include conferencing, banqueting, 7 specialty restaurant and entertainment facilities
Rentable mall and entertainment space of 372,000 Sq. Ft (Gross – 518,000 Sq. Ft)
First residential development of approximately – 358,000 Sq. Ft (231 units).
Second residential development of approximately – 255,000 Sq. Ft (196 units).
A standalone office development -254,000 Sq. Ft rentable area
Development programme
Note: Areas are subject to change based on final drawings
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Transportation - overview
▪ 42% stake in SAGT
▪ SAGT capacity: 2 million TEUs
▪ Largest cargo and logistics service provider in the country
▪ Leading bunkering services provider
▪ Joint Ventures with Deutsche Post for DHL air express and A P
Moller for Maersk Lanka
▪ GSA for Jet Airways, KLM Royal Dutch airlines and Gulf Air. Other
operations include warehousing and supply chain management
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KARACHI
GWADARBAHL
MUMBAI
CHENNAI
VISHAKHAPATNAM
KOLKATA
CHITTAGONG
YANGON
MOMBASA
LAMU
DAR-ES-SALAM
CAPE TOWN
PORT LOUIS
ADEN
KOCHI
The strategic location of the Port of Colombo linking key shipping routes
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Capacity enhancements in the Port of Colombo
31
Sustained volume growth in the Port of Colombo
4.31
4.91
5.19
5.74
6.21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mil
lio
n T
EU
s
32
▪ Container handling capacity in the region
▪ Port of Colombo estimated utilisation CY2017 : 78 per cent
▪ SAGT Domestic : Transshipment volume mix (FY2018): 19:81
Port Container handling capacity (TEUs)
Colombo 8 million*
Hong Kong 21 million
Singapore 40 million
Shanghai 36 million
Volumes (TEU) Q1 FY2019 Q1 FY2018 % Change
SAGT 504,312 404,185 25
SLPA 547,629 505,114 8
CICT 656,986 575,948 14
Total 1,708,927 1,485,246 15
Sources: Government websites/ Sri Lanka Ports Authority
Rapid absorption of capacity in the Port of Colombo
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Sources: Government websites/ Sri Lanka Ports Authority
Opportunities for growth in the Bunkering businesses
Bunkering Business (Lanka Marine Services)
▪ Total volumes at LMS grew by 20 per cent during 1Q FY2019
Port of Hambantota▪ Strong opportunities for private bunkering service providers with infrastructure in
place for inland storage of petrochemicals and a pipeline to the Port
▪ The Port will occupy an area of 1,815 hectares and have a capacity to accommodate 33 vessels at a time
▪ Positioned within 10 nautical miles of the world’s busiest shipping lanes in which 200 to 300 ships sail through on a daily basis
Logistics Business (John Keells Logistics)
▪ Total warehouse space under management grew up to approx. 250,000 CBM in the year 2017/18
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Consumer Foods - overview
▪ Market leader in soft drinks, ice creams and processed meats▪ Custodians of the consumer brands “Elephant House”, “Keells” and “Krest”: high brand equity
Key performance indicators (%) FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
Growth of ice cream volumes 15 11 (4)
Growth of beverage volumes 22 10 (16)
Growth of convenience food volumes 11 (4) 3
PBT growth- Consumer Foods 65 19 (31)
EBIT margin - Consumer Foods 22 24 17
Key performance indicators (%) Q1 FY2019
Growth of ice cream volumes 3
Growth of beverage volumes (37)
Growth of convenience foods volumes 12
▪ A sugar tax on carbonated beverages was implemented from 9th November 2017 onwards, which resulted in the selling prices across the CSD portfolio being increased by approximately 40 per cent. Other mitigation strategies are discussed overleaf
▪ Beverage : Frozen Confectionary revenue mix stood at 49:51 as at 30 June 201835
52.0
39.0
31.4
19.0
10.0
Philippines Thailand Singapore Malaysia Sri Lanka
Carbonated Soft Drinks - Per Capita Consumption (Litres)
Low consumption patterns and penetration reflects potential for sustained growth
▪ The bulk-impulse mix of regional markets are highly skewed towards the impulse markets, demonstrating the significant growth potential for the impulse category
▪ CCS reformulated its flagship flavours to replace approximately 40 per cent of sugar content with the natural sweetener Stevia while also implementing the following initiatives;
▪ Launch of sugar free CSD variants - branded “GO Sugar Free▪ Acceleration of non-CSD product launches (flavoured milk and water branded under Elephant
House, and additional flavours of fruit juice branded under “Fit-O”)
70%30%
8%
92%
Sri Lanka Thailand
56%
44%
Malaysia
Bulk vs. Impulse Split - RegionalImpulse Bulk
36
Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Nomura Research Institute, Unilever Corp, Web articles
70
49 4843 40
16
Singapore Malaysia Hong Kong Taiwan Thailand Sri Lanka
Modern Retail Penetration (%)
Retail - overview
Present share of modern retail No. of outlets
Keells * 82
Cargills 357
Arpico 45
Laugfs 34
* As at 30 June 2018
▪ “Keells” is a chain of ~10,000 square foot modern grocery retail outlets
37
▪ Comparatively higher modern trade density – population per
store ratios as against regional peers
▪ High potential for expansion due to lower penetration of
modern trade in Sri Lanka
▪ Over 160 outlets expected by FY2019/20
13
2
47
30
21
.0
7.3
4.7
4.5
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.0
2.5
1.9
0.9
Modern trade density – population (’000) per store
Source: Retail and shopper trends in the Asia Pacific, AC Nielsen
FY2018/19
Keells Super forecasted coverage
No. of new stores expected
FY2019 40
FY2020 40
Rapid expansion to capitalise on low retail penetration levels
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Retail - overview
Key performance indicators FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019-YTD
Same store sales growth (%) 15.3 12.5 9.5 5.7 1.4
Same store foot fall growth (%) 10.6 10.1 6.8 3.8 3.9
Profitability margin FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
EBIT margin (%) 3.2 5.8 5.4 4.0
PBT margin (%) 3.1 5.4 5.6 4.0
▪ The Q1 FY2019 same store sales were impacted by a decline in average basket value as a result of subdued market sentiment, in addition to the temporary impact stemming from the rapid store expansion plans of the sector and the corresponding “cannibalisation” effect it entailed.
• Profitability margins impacted by the imposition of control prices on essential items, cost of expanding and operating new stores coupled with the cost associated with rebranding and refitting stores
• Although outlets are profitable in the first year of operations, the aggressive outlet rollout undertaken has resulted in margin contraction in the short term as a result of the ramp up period of a new outlet
• The sector will undertake planned capex of approximately USD 90 million over the next two years for an aggressive expansion of the store footprint and construction of a centralised Distribution Centre. The projects will be funded via debt given the low gearing ratio of the business
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▪ Union Assurance (JKH Stake : 90%)
▪ Highest new business growth in the year 2017
▪ Committed to a “digital first” business model with an investment of over Rs. 800Mn to become the largest digital insurer in Sri Lanka
▪ Developing Bancassurance channels - 53% growth in 2017
Financial Services – Insurance sector overview
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Life Insurance Penetration as a % of GDP - 2016
Global average – 3.47%
45
54
64
71
2014 2015 2016 2017
Rs.
bn
Life Insurance Gross Written Premiums
40
Key performance indicators CY2013 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017
Market share 14% 13% 13% 13% 14%
GWP growth 8% 8% 17% 19% 22%
Recurring net profit growth 48% 11% 23% 17% 205%
Recurring net profit (Rs. Mn) 791 881 1,127 1,313 4,002*
Surplus from Life Fund (Rs. Mn) 612 750 800 1,100 3,642
Life Fund (Rs. Bn) 19.3 23.1 26.3 30.3 29.1
Capital Adequacy Ratio N/A N/A N/A 411% 352%
*Excludes a one-off surplus of Rs. 3.38 billion arising from the change in policy liability valuation
Financial Services – Insurance sector overview
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Key performance indicatorsQ4 FY 2018
(Jan-Mar 2018)Q1 FY 2019
(Apr-Jun 2018)
GWP growth (YoY) 12% 13%
Net profit Rs. 304 million Rs. 300 million
Net profit growth (YoY) 181% 349%
▪ Nations Trust Bank (JKH effective economic interest : 32.16%)▪ Focus on SME / retail strategy▪ Franchise for American Express cards
Key performance indicators CY2013 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017
Loans and advances growth 12.1% 19.5% 22.4% 23.7% 25%
Industry (LCB’s) 8.5% 12.3% 23.5% 17.7% 19.2%
Return on equity 19.6% 19.8% 18.2% 17.7% 17.4%
Industry (LCB’s) 17.3% 16.8% 15.7% 17.3% 17.5%
Net Interest Margin 5.8% 5.8% 5.5% 5.1% 4.4%
Industry (LCB’s) 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
NPL ratio (%) 3.51 4.16 2.77 2.80 2.72
Deposit base (Rs. Bn) 95.7 111.0 129.1 151.5 194.3
Asset base (Rs. Bn) 142.1 158.8 176.3 211.2 268.3
Net Profit (Rs. Mn) 2,136 2,537 2,614 2,869 3,372
Financial Services – Banking sector overview
42
Key performance indicators Q4 FY 2018 (Jan-Mar 2018) Q1 FY 2019 (Apr-Jun 2018)
Net profit Rs.939 million Rs. 936 million
Net profit growth (YoY) 30% 33%
Loan growth (YoY) 23% 24%
Net Interest Margin 5.5% 5.0%
NPL Ratio 2.62% 3.06%
THANK YOU
This document was produced by John Keells Holdings PLC for information purposes only. The information contained in this document are a review of the financial information pertaining to FY2019, and does not
constitute an issue prospectus or a financial analysis. This Investor Presentation should be read in conjunction with the JKH Annual Report 2017/18 to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the drivers
and strategies of our businesses.
Whilst John Keells Holdings accepts responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained in this document, it does not assume any responsibility for investment decision made by the prospective investors
based on information contained herein. In making the investment decision, prospective investors must rely on their own examination and assessments of the Company including the risks involved.
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