John Carnochan OBE QPM FFPH

20th Century Solutions to

21st Century Problems?1st November 2013

“Gentlemen, we have run out of money – now

we have to think.”

Winston Churchill

OR

A mouse trap?

Free cheese and a challenge?

The Context

“The challenges we face converge, intertwine and often remain largely

beyond our understanding. Most of us suspect that the “experts” don’t really

know what’s going on and that as a species we’ve released forces that are

neither managed nor manageable.”

Thomas Homer-Dixon(Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon University of Glasgow 2009

Violence Prevention is a Shared Agenda and we

must respond together with Science and Compassion.

The Context

Wicked ProblemRittel & Webber 1973

• No clear definition of a wicked problem

• We can make wicked problems better or worse

• It’s not clear when wicked problems are fixed

• Every attempt to fix a wicked problem will change it

• The planner has no right to be wrong

The WHAT

“Interpersonal violence – violence between individuals in families and communities – is a Public Health problem.”

Etienne KrugDirector

Department of Injuries and Violence PreventionWorld health Organisation

2004

Death

Conception

Adoption of Health-risk Behaviors

Social, Emotional, & Cognitive Impairment

EarlyDeath

Adverse Childhood ExperiencesToxic Stress

Disease, Disabilityand Social Problems

ACEs are fundamental risk factors for disease and early death

Consequences: long-termConsequences: long-term

What do Employers What do Employers Want ?Want ?

Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap

Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website, Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Literacy

Using numbers

Advanced IT or software

Strategic management

Basic computer literacy / using IT

Written communication

Other technical and practical skills

Oral communication

Team working

Problem solving

Customer handling

Planning and organising

Sense of Coherence

• Your world is structured, predictable and explicable

• You have the internal resources to meet the demands

• The demands are seen as challenges worthy of investment and engagement

Sir Harry BurnsCMO 2011

(Aaron Antonovsky)

Violence – Contagious Process?

• Clustering

• Epidemic Wave

• Transmission

Gary SlutkinCure Violence

Clustering?

Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slidePercentage of pupils performing well or very well at relevant level by deprivation.

Shared Agenda

Thanks to Gary Slutkin for this slide

birth

Early Years Framework

GIRFEC

Curriculum for Excellence

YJ Framework

Promoting Positive Outcomes (ASB)

Achieving our Potential (Poverty)

Equally Well (Health Inequalities)

Road to Recovery (Drugs)

Alcohol framework

181610

Purpose

Government Economic Strategy

National Outcomes

SOAs

NATIONAL POLICIES

NATIONAL PERFORMANCE

LIFE JOURNEY

Valuing our Young People

More Choices More Chances

Redemption

An old idea that still works

Everyone can change

“We cannot live only for ourselves. A thousand fibers

connect us with our fellow men; and among those fibers, as

sympathetic threads, our actions run as causes, and they come

back to us as effects.”

Herman Melville

“An infinitely large number of

infinitesimally small actions”

Leo Tolstoy

Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slide

Join us…

On the web: www.actiononviolence.org.uk

On Twitter: @johncarnochan

On Facebook: look for “vruscotland”