Estimated survival of juvenile Estimated survival of juvenile salmonids through the lower salmonids through the lower

Columbia River and estuary, and Columbia River and estuary, and estimated mortality from avian estimated mortality from avian

predationpredation

John FergusonJohn Ferguson

NOAA FisheriesNOAA FisheriesNorthwest Fisheries Science CenterNorthwest Fisheries Science Center

www.nwfsc.noaa.govwww.nwfsc.noaa.gov

1. A Study to Estimate Juvenile1. A Study to Estimate JuvenileSalmonid Survival from Salmonid Survival from

Bonneville Dam Through theBonneville Dam Through theColumbia River Estuary UsingColumbia River Estuary Using

Acoustic TagsAcoustic Tags

*R. Lynn McComas*R. Lynn McComasLyle GilbreathLyle Gilbreath

Thomas J. CarlsonThomas J. CarlsonJohn W. FergusonJohn W. Ferguson

*Geoffrey A. McMichael*Geoffrey A. McMichaelGary JohnsonGary Johnson

Steven G. Smith Steven G. Smith Gene M. MatthewsGene M. Matthews

COTR: Blaine Ebberts

Provide rigorous estimates of juvenile Provide rigorous estimates of juvenile salmonid survival through the lower salmonid survival through the lower ColumbiaColumbia River estuary.River estuary.

Post Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS)Post Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS)Survival Primary Research GoalSurvival Primary Research Goal

Secondary GoalsSecondary Goals

• Migration behavior and fate determinationMigration behavior and fate determination

• Estuary residence timingEstuary residence timing

• Habitat selectionHabitat selection

• Delayed mortality Delayed mortality

• System-wide FCRPS survival using active tagsSystem-wide FCRPS survival using active tags

Methods: Methods: Micro-acoustic Transmitters Micro-acoustic Transmitters (tags)(tags)

Dimensions:Dimensions: 5.3 mm wide 5.3 mm wide17.0 mm long17.0 mm long 3.5 mm high3.5 mm high

Weight:Weight: 0.62 g dry0.62 g dry

0.35 g residual0.35 g residual

Volume: Volume: 0.38 ml0.38 ml

Frequency: Frequency: 416.7 kHz (center)416.7 kHz (center)

Nominal Nominal tag life: tag life: 30 d @ 5 sec PRI 30 d @ 5 sec PRI

60 d @ 10 sec PRI60 d @ 10 sec PRI

Encoding:Encoding: 32 bit differential 32 bit differential phase shift (PSK)phase shift (PSK) (65,536 (65,536 simultaneous simultaneous individual codes)individual codes)

2007

2006

Mean Estimated Survival from Mean Estimated Survival from Bonneville to the mouth, 2005:Bonneville to the mouth, 2005:

Yearling Chinook:Yearling Chinook: 0.69 (SE = 0.69 (SE = 0.061)0.061)

Subyearling Chinook: 0.50 (SE = Subyearling Chinook: 0.50 (SE = 0.037)0.037)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

5/5 5/12 5/24 6/1 6/18 6/25 7/2 7/9 7/16

SurvivalDetection Probabliity

Sur

viva

l est

ima

te

Sur

viva

l est

ima

te

Release date Release date

Yearling Chinook salmon (n = 890)Yearling Chinook salmon (n = 890) Subyearling Chinook salmon (n = 1216)Subyearling Chinook salmon (n = 1216)

Survival and detection probability estimates (Survival and detection probability estimates (± ± 95% CI)95% CI)Bonneville Dam through the Columbia River estuary 2005. Bonneville Dam through the Columbia River estuary 2005.

Mean Estimated Survival from Mean Estimated Survival from Bonneville to the mouth, 2006:Bonneville to the mouth, 2006:

Yearling Chinook:Yearling Chinook: 0.68 (SE = 0.68 (SE = 0.038) 0.038)

Subyearling Chinook: 0.66 (SE = Subyearling Chinook: 0.66 (SE = 0.036) 0.036)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

5/2 5/11 5/19 5/27 6/17 6/22 6/27 7/2 7/7 7/12 7/17 7/22

SurvivalDetection Probabliity

Sur

viva

l est

ima

te

Sur

viva

l est

ima

te

Release date Release date

Yearling Chinook salmon (n=972)Yearling Chinook salmon (n=972) Subyearling Chinook salmon (n = 1957)Subyearling Chinook salmon (n = 1957)

Survival and detection probability estimates (Survival and detection probability estimates (± ± 95% CI)95% CI)Bonneville Dam through the Columbia River estuary 2006. Bonneville Dam through the Columbia River estuary 2006.

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

5/2 5/11 5/19 5/27 6/17 6/22 6/27 7/2 7/7 7/12 7/17 7/22

SurvivalDetection Probabliity

Sur

viva

l est

ima

te

Sur

viva

l est

ima

te

Release date Release date

Yearling Chinook salmon (n=972)Yearling Chinook salmon (n=972) Subyearling Chinook salmon (n = 1957)Subyearling Chinook salmon (n = 1957)

Survival and detection probability estimates (Survival and detection probability estimates (± ± 95% CI)95% CI)Bonneville Dam through the Camas primary array 2006. Bonneville Dam through the Camas primary array 2006.

Survival in lower river compared Survival in lower river compared to FCRPS (yearling Chinook)to FCRPS (yearling Chinook)

Post-FPRCSPost-FPRCS (acoustic; 225 km) (acoustic; 225 km) 0.690.69 0.680.68Bonneville – lower CR estuaryBonneville – lower CR estuary

Estimated mean survival Estimated mean survival

20052005 20062006

FCRPSFCRPS (PIT; 460 km) (PIT; 460 km) 0.580.58 0.640.64Lower Granite - BonnevilleLower Granite - Bonneville

2. Mobile tracking of acoustically 2. Mobile tracking of acoustically tagged subyearling Chinook tagged subyearling Chinook salmon upstream of Puget salmon upstream of Puget Island, 2007Island, 2007

PI: Lynn McComasPI: Lynn McComas

Tag ID: 3CA2Rel Date:6/30/07Trk date: 7/3/07 13:58 – 15:42 133 receptionsTrk Dist: 3.53 mi.

Washington

Canada

Idaho

Montana

BonnevilleDam

GrandCoulee

ChiefJoseph

Wells

Rocky Reach

Rock Island

Wanapum

Priest Rapids

LowerMonumental

LittleGoose

LowerGranite

IceHarbor

McNary

JohnDay

TheDalles

Oregon

Washington

Canada

Idaho

Montana

BonnevilleDam

GrandCoulee

ChiefJoseph

Wells

Rocky Reach

Rock Island

Wanapum

Priest Rapids

LowerMonumental

LittleGoose

LowerGranite

IceHarbor

McNary

JohnDay

TheDalles

Oregon

Tag ID: 0109Rel Date:6/2307Trk date: 6/26/07 10:00 – 11:06 105 receptionsTrk Dist: 0.94 mi.

Washington

Canada

Idaho

Montana

BonnevilleDam

GrandCoulee

ChiefJoseph

Wells

Rocky Reach

Rock Island

Wanapum

Priest Rapids

LowerMonumental

LittleGoose

LowerGranite

IceHarbor

McNary

JohnDay

TheDalles

Oregon

Washington

Canada

Idaho

Montana

BonnevilleDam

GrandCoulee

ChiefJoseph

Wells

Rocky Reach

Rock Island

Wanapum

Priest Rapids

LowerMonumental

LittleGoose

LowerGranite

IceHarbor

McNary

JohnDay

TheDalles

Oregon

Tag ID: 06C6Rel Date:6/21/07Trk date: 6/27/07 10:49 – 11:28 100 receptionsTrk Dist: 1.68 mi.

Washington

Canada

Idaho

Montana

BonnevilleDam

GrandCoulee

ChiefJoseph

Wells

Rocky Reach

Rock Island

Wanapum

Priest Rapids

LowerMonumental

LittleGoose

LowerGranite

IceHarbor

McNary

JohnDay

TheDalles

Oregon

Washington

Canada

Idaho

Montana

BonnevilleDam

GrandCoulee

ChiefJoseph

Wells

Rocky Reach

Rock Island

Wanapum

Priest Rapids

LowerMonumental

LittleGoose

LowerGranite

IceHarbor

McNary

JohnDay

TheDalles

Oregon

3. Estimated losses of juvenile 3. Estimated losses of juvenile salmon to Caspian terns and salmon to Caspian terns and double-crested cormorants in double-crested cormorants in the lower Columbia River (PIT the lower Columbia River (PIT tags), 2006tags), 2006

PIs: Brad Ryan and Dick PIs: Brad Ryan and Dick LedgerwoodLedgerwood

Caspian terns

Cormorants

PIT tag detection methods

Percent PIT tagged steelhead detected on estuary tern and cormorant colonies in 2006

6.20%

2.70%

5.20%

3.30%

11.20%

3.40%

9.90%

2.40%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Tern Cormorant

Bird species

% fi

sh d

etec

ted

at B

onne

ville

Dam

Merwin

Elochoman Hatchery

Bonneville Detections

Barge Releases

Percent PIT tagged fall Chinook salmon detected on estuary tern and cormorant colonies in 2006

2.00%

15.40%

0.70% 0.80%1.10% 0.70%1.00% 0.50%0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Tern Cormorant

Bird species

% fi

sh d

etec

ted

at B

onne

ville

Dam Big Creek

Bonneville Hatchery

Bonneville Detections

Barge Releases

4. 2006: Compare a4. 2006: Compare avian predation vian predation rates on juvenile salmonids rates on juvenile salmonids transported to the lower transported to the lower Columbia River estuary and Columbia River estuary and released at Astoria Bridge (rkm released at Astoria Bridge (rkm 10), and below Bonneville Dam at 10), and below Bonneville Dam at Skamania Landing (rkm 225), to Skamania Landing (rkm 225), to test the hypothesis that releasing test the hypothesis that releasing at rkm 10 will produce higher at rkm 10 will produce higher smolt-to-adult return rates (SARs)smolt-to-adult return rates (SARs)

PIs: Doug Marsh and Bill MuirPIs: Doug Marsh and Bill Muir

Mean rate of predation of Mean rate of predation of transported fish to avian transported fish to avian

predators predators Yearling Chinook:Yearling Chinook:

Released at Released at Skamania (rkm 225): Skamania (rkm 225): 3.0% 3.0%

Released at Astoria Released at Astoria (rkm 10): 0.4%(rkm 10): 0.4%

Steelhead:Steelhead:

Released at Released at Skamania (rkm 225): Skamania (rkm 225): 13.8% 13.8%

Released at Astoria Released at Astoria (rkm 10): 1.7%(rkm 10): 1.7%

*Need to wait for adult returns for final results (includes *Need to wait for adult returns for final results (includes effectseffects from ocean entry timing)from ocean entry timing)