kesko roadshow, chicago
TRANSCRIPT
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KESKO ROADSHOWCEO MIKKO HELANDER
Q4/2015
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• Net sales €8,780m
• Operating profit* €247m
• Personnel 21,812
• Shareholders 38,853
• Market capitalisation €3.1bn (Sep 30, 2015)
* excl. non-recurring items
2
KESKO TODAYROLLING 12 MO
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• K-Group’s sales €11.3bn
• Operations is eight countries
• Over 1.3 million customer visits
every day
• Personnel 45,000
FOR SHOPPING TO BE FUN
3
K-GROUP
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KESKO NET SALESBY LINE OF BUSINESS 2014
4
Car trade 9%
Agricultural and machinery trade 7%
Sports trade 2%
Furniture trade 2%
Building and home
improvement trade 25%
Kespro 9%Grocery trade
Russia 1%
Grocery trade
Finland 44%
Grocery trade €4,754m
Home improvement and speciality goods trade €3,568m
Car trade €766m
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5
KESKO NET SALES BY COUNTRY 2014
Russia 4%
Lithuania 4%
Latvia 1%
Finland 82%
Belarus 1%
Estonia 1%
Sweden 2%
Norway 5%
Over 80% of net sales
comes from Finland
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Finland Other countries
NET SALES
6
+5.8%
+11.1%+9.3%
+3.3%
-11.9%+3.9%
+7.8% +2.4%-3.8%
€m
-2.6%
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-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Operating profit excl. non-recurring items Non-recurring items
OPERATING PROFIT
7
€m
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YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE IN FIXED COSTSEXCLUDING NON-RECURRING ITEMS
8
10.3%
7.5% 8.0%
1.2%
-4.0% -4.5% -4.0%-2.0% -1.3%
-1.0% -1.6%-1.9%
-4.4%
-10.6%-8.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
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RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYEDMOVING 12 MO, EXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS
9
Group totalHome improvement
and speciality
goods trade
Grocery trade Car trade
%
19.9
6.9
29.0
11.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION
10
Liquid assets €858m €503m
Interest bearing net debt €-394m €-3m
Equity ratio 54.2% 54.2%
Q3/2015 Q3/2014
• Cash flow €403 million from real estate arrangement
• Strong cash position enables growth and good dividend yield
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EARNINGS / SHARE AND DIVIDEND
11
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2.0
0.0
1.0
0.5
1.5 1.40
1.651.50
1.68
1.20
1.47
1.20
1.84
1.30
1.78
0.90
0.71
Dividend
Earnings / share excl. non-recurring items % Effective dividend yield
3.9% 3.7% 4.6% 4.8% 5.2% 5.0%€
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FINANCIAL TARGETS ANDCAPITAL EXPENDITURE
• Return on capital employed 14%
• Return on equity 12%
• Interest bearing net liabilities / EBITDA < 2.5
• Capital expenditure in 2015–2017 approximately €750 million
• Excluding possible acquisitions
Dividend policy: Kesko Corporation distributes at least 50% of its earnings
per share excluding non-recurring items as dividends, taking however the
company's financial position and operating strategy into account.
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ROCE AND ROEEXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS, %
9.6
12.4
14.7
10.2
7.4
14.013.1
9.09.8 9.9
14.0
10.510.0
14.6
8.1
3.8
8.7 8.8
6.97.7 7.6
12.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 target
ROCE ROE
13
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14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Capital expenditure in store sites Acquisitions Other capital expenditure
average
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BACK TO NORMALLEVEL
€m
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MARKET SITUATION AND
FUTURE OUTLOOK
15
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Source: Eurostat, excl. motor vehicles and fuels
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Estonia
Lithuania
Sweden
Norway
Latvia
Finland
Latest
month
% (
roll
ing
12
mo
)
RETAIL TRADE TRENDS IN OPERATING COUNTRIESROLLING 12 MO
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/0
0
7/0
0
1/0
1
7/0
1
1/0
2
7/0
2
1/0
3
7/0
3
1/0
4
7/0
4
1/0
5
7/0
5
1/0
6
7/0
6
1/0
7
7/0
7
1/0
8
7/0
8
1/0
9
7/0
9
1/1
0
7/1
0
1/1
1
7/1
1
1/1
2
7/1
2
1/1
3
7/1
3
1/1
4
7/1
4
1/1
5
7/1
5
Expectations for own finances
Expectation, 21st centuryaverage
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN FINLAND
17
odotukset omasta taloudesta seuraavan 12 kk:n kuluttua
Source: Statistics Finland
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BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Finland
• In Finland, owing to the decline of consumers’ purchasing power, the trading sector’s performance is expected to remain weak in all product lines, which may be complicated further by actions taken to balance the public finances
Skandinavia and the Baltic countries
• The market is expected to grow
Russia
• Economic situation and consumers’ purchasing power, as well as the outlook have weakened further
Belarus
• Consumers’ purchasing power is expected to strengthen, hyperinflation is expected to ease
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FUTURE OUTLOOK 10/2015-9/2016
19
The general economic situation and the expected trend in consumer demand vary in Kesko’s different operating countries. In Finland, owing to the decline of consumers’ purchasing power, the trading sector’s performance is expected to remain weak in all product lines, which may be complicated further by actions taken to balance the public finances. In the Finnish grocery trade, the tough competitive situation is expected to continue. The market performance of the Finnish building and home improvement trade is expected to remain weak. The outlook for the car trade is also uncertain. With respect to foreign countries, the economic situation and consumers’ purchasing power, as well as the outlook in Russia have weakened further. Instead, in Sweden and Norway and the Baltic countries, the market is expected to grow.
Kesko Group's net sales for the next 12 months are expected to be lower than the level of the preceding 12 months. The operating profit excluding non-recurring items for the next 12-month period is expected to equal the operating profit level of the preceding 12 months.
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PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
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INVESTING IN STRATEGICGROWTH AREAS
• Grocery trade (Finland, Russia, Kespro)
• Building and home improvement trade (Europe)
• Car trade (Finland, the Baltic countries)
• Good profitability achieved in all strategic growth areas
• Investments in range of €250 million / year, excluding
potential acquisitions
• Also acquisitions are considered in all three strategic
growth areas
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KEY STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
22
• Turning the market share in the Finnish grocery trade around
• Increasing the building and home improvement trade in Europe
• Strengthening the market leadership in the Finnish car trade
• The best omni-channel customer experience in the trading sector
• One unified Kesko, harvesting synergies
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KESKO TO INVEST IN FINLAND BY ACQUIRING SUOMEN LÄHIKAUPPA
• Kesko has made an agreement to acquire the whole share capital of Suomen
Lähikauppa Oy from the private equity investment firm Triton
• The net sales of Suomen Lähikauppa in 2014 were €999.2 million
• It has 643 Siwa and Valintatalo stores and 4,100 employees
• The transaction price of the debt-free acquisition, structured as a share
purchase, is approximately €60 million
• Kesko estimates that its capital expenditure in 2015-2017 will decrease from
the approximately €1 billion announced in the strategy to €750 million,
excluding possible acquisitions
23
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MAXIMISING VALUE CREATION ALSO IN OTHERBUSINESSES
• Important to have the best platform for Kesko’s small and medium sized businesses to succeed in tight competition
• Furniture trade (Finland and Estonia)
• Agricultural trade (Finland)
• Machinery trade (Finland and the Baltic countries)
• Shoe trade (Finland)
• Sports trade (Finland and Russia)
• All options which improve competitiveness of other businesses and retailer entrepreneurs are possible
24
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GROCERY TRADE
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KESKO GROCERY TRADE KEY FIGURES ROLLING 12 MO
26
Net sales €4,684m
Operating profit* €185m
Operating margin* 4.0%
ROCE* 19.9%
K-Group 33.1%
S-Group 45.7%
Lidl 7.6%
Suomen Lähikauppa 6.8%
Others 6.8%
Total market €16.7 billion
Source: Nielsen
* excl. non-recurring items
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RETAIL STORES
Sales 2014
€ million, VAT 0%
Number of stores at
30.9.2015
Concept
1,505+581 81 Hypermarket
1,725 220 Supermarket
1,216 459Neighbourhood
store
103 8Compact hyper,
Russia
Others 161 136 Incl. online store
Total 5,292 904
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STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF THE GROCERY TRADE
• Turning the market share in the Finnish grocery trade around
• Further improving quality and service level
• Investments to improve the K-supermarket and K-market store network
• Customer focused renewal of the K-citymarket concept
• Improving price competitiveness and price image
• Offering leading digital services in grocery
• Developed retailer business model
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PIRKKA – A TRUE BRAND
• By far the most valued and best-known store private label in Finland
• Launched in 1986
• Pirkka range comprises more than 2,300 products
• More than 100 of Pirkka products are organic and more than 30 are Fairtrade
products
• Introduced a new PL, K-Menu, in spring 2014
• K-Menu range comprises some 300 products
• Targeting price conscious customers
• Share of PL sales in K-food stores in 2014 some 20%
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• Organic growth through strong
international cooperation
• Searching for expansion alternatives
in Finland and the neighbouring
areas
• Supporting the service counter
offering of the K-food stores
• Increasing operations and improving
profitability
in the St. Petersburg area
• Active in acquiring store sites
• K-ruoka is the best food store in
the St. Petersburg area
• Identifying new growth possibilities
in the Moscow area and possibly in
other metropolitan cities in Russia
30
INCREASING THEHORECA BUSINESS STRATEGY FOR RUSSIA
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HOME IMPROVEMENT AND SPECIALITYGOODS TRADE
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HOME IMPROVEMENT AND SPECIALITY GOODS TRADEKEY FIGURES ROLLING 12 MO
32
Net sales €3,351m
Operating profit* €60m
Operating
margin*1.8%
ROCE* 6.9%
Sports trade€186m
Shoe trade €20
Furniture trade€176m
Agricultural trade€372m
Others€20m
Building and home improvement trade Belarus €125m
Building and home improvement trade
Russia €250m
Building and homeimprovement tradeFinland €785m
Building and homeimprovement tradeScandinavia €625m
Building and home improvement trade Baltics €443m
KonekeskoBaltics €96m
KonekeskoFinland €161m
* excl. non-recurring items
2014
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PROFITABLE GROWTH IN BUILDING AND HOME IMPROVEMENT TRADE
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2013 2014
Operating profit, € million
0 10 20 30 40
Belarus
N-w and…
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Norway
Sweden
Finland
N-w and central
Russia
Market shares in 2014
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13.8412.14
5.594.84
3.39 3.362.61
0
5
10
15 Net sales
THE BIGGEST EUROPEAN DIY ENTERPRISES 2014
Sources: Companies’ annual reports, companies’ webpages, Baumarktmanager
€ BN
34 5/2015
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300 STORES IN EIGHTCOUNTRIES
Finland€1,190m138 stores
Sweden€197m
20 stores
Norway€671m
82 stores
Russia€250m
13 stores
Belarus€125m
11 stores
Lithuania€317m
19 stores
Latvia€53m
8 stores
Estonia78 M€
8 stores
TOTAL RETAIL SALES€2,881m
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STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF THE BUILDING AND HOME IMPROVEMENT TRADE
36
• Kesko #5 in Europe – strong potential for further growth organically or
through acquisitions
• Providing excellent services from the same store network to the three
different customer segments
• A common core for all countries to ensure efficient operations
• Offering the best omni-channel digital services
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CAR TRADE
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CAR TRADEKEY FIGURES ROLLING 12 MO
38
Net sales €745m
Operating profit* €27m
Operating margin* 3.7%
ROCE* 29.0%
Volkswagen 12.3%
Toyota 11.9%
Skoda 9.2%
Volvo 7.3%
Ford 7.0%
Nissan 6.1%
Audi 6.0%
Kia 5.7%
Seat 1.7%
Others 32.8%* excl. non-recurring items
2014
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THE CAR TRADE IS ONE OF KESKO’S THREESTRATEGIC GROWTH AREAS
• VV-Auto’s market share in the Finnish passenger car and van trade
has risen from 15% to 21% within ten years
• Throughout recent years, Volkswagen has been the best selling car
brand in Finland and Audi has been number one in its competitive
segment
• VV-Auto’s retail net sales have quadrupled within ten years from 100
million to 400 million
• VV-Auto’s profitability has remained at a good level despite the
difficult market situation
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THE WORLD’S MOST SUSTAINABLE RETAIL OPERATOR
40
In January 2015, Kesko was ranked fifth on ’The Global100 Most Sustainable Corporationsin the World’ list.
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KESKO IS THE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOOD AND STAPLES RETAILER IN THE WORLD
41
In 2015, Kesko rose to CDP’s Climate A List for the first time scoring the
maximum 100 points
At the top of the Nordic Carbon Disclosure Leadership climate index since 2011.
In 2015, Kesko was awarded the full 100 points
In ’The Global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations in the World’ list since 2005
In the Sustainability Yearbook 2015, Kesko was classified into the bronze class
in the Food & Drug Retailers sector
Included in the FTSE4Good index since 2009
Included in the STOXX Global ESG Leaders index family since 2011
Included in the Dow Jones sustainability indexes DJSI World and DJSI Europe
2003-2014
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BASIC INFORMATION
43
• Established in 1940
• Listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange (Nasdaq Helsinki) in 1960
• 39,000 shareholders
– 28% of all shares owned by non-Finnish
– 41% of B-shares owned by non-Finnish
• Market capitalisation €3.1 billion (Sep 30, 2015)
• Share series: A and B – voting rights 10:1
Number of shares
A shares31.7%
B shares68.3%
Voting rights
B shares
18%A shares
82%
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SHAREHOLDERS
44
The largest registered shareholders
At 9/2015 by number of shares
%
1 K-retailers´ Association 3,816,860 3.82
2 Vähittäiskaupan Takaus Oy 3,491,771 3.49
3 Kruunuvuoren Satama Oy 3,438,885 3.44
4Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company 2,050,632 2.05
5 Valluga-sijoitus Oy 1,340,439 1.34
6Varma Mutual Pension Insurance Company 1,130,986 1.13
7Foundation for Vocational Training in the Retail Trade 1,084,431 1.08
8 Oy The English Tearoom Ab 1,000,000 1.00
9 Elo Pension Company 896,968 0.90
10 Kesko Oyj 876,455 0.88
%
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REAL ESTATE ARRANGEMENT COMPLETED
• The joint real estate investment company established by Kesko, AMF
Pensionsförsäkring and Ilmarinen started operating in June
• The combined fair value was €652 million and the properties owned by
Kesko Group companies accounted for €485 million
• Cash flow to Kesko was €403 million
45
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REAL ESTATE IN 6/2015
46
Owned properties
CountryArea,
1,000 m2
Finland 550
Other Nordic countries 66
Baltic countries and Belarus 113
Russia 179
Total
Carrying amount
908
€1,070m
Leased properties total
1,000 m2 3,008
Classification
Strategic properties 59%
Standard properties 32%
Development properties 8%
Realisation properties 1%
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OPERATING MARGIN BY DIVISIONEXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS
Q1/
2014
Q2/
2014
Q3/
2014
Q4/
2014
Q1/
2015
Q2/
2015
Q3/
2015
Grocery trade 4.1 4.6 5.1 4.9 3.2 3.8 3.8
Home improvementand speciality goods
trade
-4.1 1.0 2.2 0.4 -1.8 3.9 4.2
Car trade 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.0 4.7 3.4 3.5
Total 0.9 2.9 3.6 2.7 1.3 3.4 3.7
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TREND IN FOREIGN OWNERSHIP, % (31.12.)
48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Q3/2015
All shares B share
%
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
49
Source: Statistics Finland
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RETAIL TRADE, TREND DEVELOPMENT
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Turnover Volume indexSource: Statistics Finland
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DAILY CONSUMER GOODS TRADE, TRENDDEVELOPMENT
51
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Turnover Volume indexSource: Statistics Finland
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GRANTED BUILDING PERMITS, MIL. M3, MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL
52
Source: Statistics Finland
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FIRST REGISTRATIONS OF PASSENGER CARS IN FINLAND
53
Source: Statistics Finland
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54
INTERIM REPORTJANUARY-SEPTEMBER
2015 PRESIDENT AND CEO MIKKO HELANDER
22 OCTOBER 2015
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KEY EVENTS IN Q3
• Measures taken to strengthen the competitiveness of the grocery trade have progressed as planned and the division’s profitability remained at a good level
• Market share and profitability of the building and home improvementtrade continued to strengthen
• New cars have continued to sell well despite Volkswagen’s emissionsissue
• Balance sheet very strong, liquid assets €858 million
55
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Q3 NET SALES GROWTH +1.2%IN LOCAL CURRENCIES EXCL. ANTTILA
56
4,000
5,000
7,000
3,000
6,000
2,000
1,000
0
Q1-Q3/2015
6,513
Q1-Q3/2014
6,804
Q3/2015
2,203
Q3/2014
2,304
€m
Reported net sales, €, incl. Anttila
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Q3 NET SALES BY DIVISION
€1,171m
€857m
€170m
Grocery trade
-0.6%Home
improvement
and specialitygoods trade
+4.5%
Car trade -2.6%
53%
39%
8%
57
Comparable change
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OPERATING PROFITEXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS
58
0
50
100
150
200
Q3/2015
82.5
Q3/2014
84.0
Q1-Q3/2015
185.3
Q1-Q3/2014
170.8
€m
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STEADY PROFIT PERFORMANCE CONTINUESOPERATING PROFIT EXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS
59
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q3/2014
84.0
Q2/2014
67.6
Q1/2014
19.1
Q4/2013
66.8
Q3/2013
83.6
Q2/2013
69.8
Q1/2013 Q3/2015
82.5
Q2/2015
76.4
Q1/2015
26.5
Q4/2014
61.9
18.6
€m
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RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED INCREASESEXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS, ROLLING 12 MO
60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q3/2015
11.3
Q2/2015
10.9
Q1/2015
10.2
Q4/2014
9.9
Q3/2014
10.0
Q2/2014
9.9
Q1/2014
9.9
Q4/2013
9.8
Q3/2013
9.7
Q2/2013
9.3
Q1/2013
8.8
%
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CASH FLOW AFTER CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
61
600
100
200
0
-100
-200Q3/2015
39.3
Q2/2015
541.1
Q1/2015
-139.3
Q4/2014
98.6
Q3/2014
82.4
Q2/2014
79.9
Q1/2014
-138.5
Q4/2013
75.8
Q3/2013
80.3
Q2/2013
206.1
Q1/2013
-100.5
€m
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FINANCIAL POSITION
62
30.9.2015 30.9.2014
Equity ratio, % 54.2 54.2
Liquid assets, €m 858 503
Interest-bearing net liabilities, €m -394 -3
Capital expenditure, €m 152 151
Return on capital employed*, % 11.3 10.0
Return on equity*, % 8.0 8.4
* Excl. non-recurring items, rolling 12 mo
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GROCERY TRADE
63
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NET SALES
64
3,500
2,500
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q1-Q3/2015
3,424
Q1-Q3/2014
3,494
Q3/2015
1,171
Q3/2014
1,190
€m
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OPERATING PROFIT EXCL. NON-RECURRINGITEMS
65
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q1-Q3/2015
123.0
Q1-Q3/2014
161.0
Q3/2015
44.8
Q3/2014
60.3
€m
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GROCERY TRADE IN Q3• Measures taken to strengthen the competitiveness of the grocery
trade have progressed as planned and the division’s profitability
remained at a good level.
• Price level in Finnish grocery trade has fallen by around 1%
• The K-Group responds to changes in the competitive
environment both by renewing store concepts in line with
strategy and improving its operational efficiency
• Effect of the real estate arrangement completed in June on
the operating profit excluding non-recurring items was €-3.3
million.
• Sales in Russia were down by 2.5% in euros and up by 42% in
roubles
• Kespro’s market share increased and profitability remained at a
good level
66
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HOME IMPROVEMENTAND SPECIALITYGOODS TRADE
67
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Q3 NET SALES GROWTH +4.5%IN LOCAL CURRENCIES EXCL. ANTTILA
68
857942
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q1-Q3/2015
2,514
Q1-Q3/2014
2,731
Q3/2015Q3/2014
€m
Reported net sales, €, incl. Anttila
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OPERATING PROFIT EXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN Q3
69
-20
0
20
40
60
Q1-Q3/2015
56.1
Q1-Q3/2014
-3.3
Q3/2015
35.8
Q3/2014
20.6
€m
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HOME IMPROVEMENT AND SPECIALITY GOODS TRADE IN Q3
• Building and home improvement trade
• Market share is estimated to have grown in Finland, Norway,
the Baltics and Russia
• Operating profit has improved in ten successive quarters
• Net sales and profitability strengthened in the agricultural and machinery
trade
• In the leisure trade, Budget Sport’s sales increased markedly
• Asko’s sales performance +8%
70
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CAR TRADE
71
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NET SALES
72
571592
170175
0
200
400
600
Q3/2015Q3/2014 Q1-Q3/2014 Q1-Q3/2015
€m
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OPERATING PROFITEXCL. NON-RECURRING ITEMS
73
0
10
20
30
Q1-Q3/2015
22.3
Q1-Q3/2014
23.8
Q3/2015
6.0
Q3/2014
6.3
€m
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ORDER BACKLOG AT END OF SEPTEMBER HIGHER THAN THE YEAR BEFORE
74
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
70000
1/1
3
02
/13
03
/13
04
/13
05
/13
06
/13
07
/13
08
/13
09
/13
10
/13
11
/13
12
/13
01
/14
02
/14
03
/14
04
/14
05
/14
06
/14
07
/14
08
/14
09
/14
10
/14
11
/14
12
/14
1/1
5
2/1
5
3/1
5
4/1
5
5/1
5
6/1
5
7/1
5
8/1
5
9/1
5
Backlog of customer orders (pcs) Rolling 12 mo average (pcs)