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Planet Debate

North Korea (Threat) Update – February 3, 20110

### North Korea a Threat ###..............................................................................................................2

North Threat Risk High -- Succession..................................................................................................3

North Threat Risk High – Succession..................................................................................................4North Threat Risk High -- Sucession....................................................................................................5

North Korea A Threat – Special Forces...............................................................................................6Prolif A Threat – North Developing Nukes..........................................................................................7

A2: North Can’t Make Bombs out of Plutonium..................................................................................8Uranium Bombs....................................................................................................................................9

Ballistic Missiles a Threat..................................................................................................................10

Ballistic Missile Threat.......................................................................................................................12A2: Talks Solve..................................................................................................................................13

A2: Six Party Talks Solve North Korean Threat................................................................................14

A2: Six Party Talks Solve North Korean Threat................................................................................15A2: Parliamentary Talks Solve...........................................................................................................16

...........................................................................................................................................................16

A2: North Would Never Attack the US..............................................................................................17A2: Yeonpeong Attack Just a Negotiating Ploy.................................................................................18

North Has Attacked............................................................................................................................19

Bioweapons Threat.............................................................................................................................20

Tensions High.....................................................................................................................................21## North Korea Not a Threat ##........................................................................................................22

North-South Talks Now......................................................................................................................23

North-South Talks Now......................................................................................................................24North-South Talks Now......................................................................................................................25

North Not a Proliferation Threat.........................................................................................................26

### Japan Update ###.........................................................................................................................27

North Korea Link................................................................................................................................28...........................................................................................................................................................28

US-Japan Security Cooperation Increasing........................................................................................29

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Planet Debate


### North Korea a Threat ###

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Planet Debate


North Threat Risk High -- Succession

Succession increases the threat from North Korea

Yonhap (South Korea), January 28, 2011, N. Korea to develop nuclear-capable ICBMswithin decade: Adm. Mullen

North Korea also revealed in November a uranium enrichment plant that could serve as

a second way of building nuclear bombs in addition to its existing plutonium program,

despite Pyongyang's claims it is producing fuel for power generation."I think we all agree it's a more dangerous place now than it was a few months ago and

that the provocations -- and this is all tied to the succession thing and Kim Jong Il, who's

been a pretty unpredictable guy for a long time -- the worry tied to this revelation on the nuke,the uranium enrichment piece, all of that, that it's now more dangerous than it was a few

months ago," Mullen said.

The North's recent provocations, including the artillery attack on a South Koreanborder island and the sinking of a warship, are widely believed to be linked to the ailing

North Korean leader Kim's plans to transfer power to his third and youngest son, Jong-

un, in the unprecedented third generation hereditary power transition.

The 28-year-old heir apparent, who like his father lacks a proper military background, isbelieved to be trying to rally support from the military, the only power base in the

impoverished, but nuclear-armed communist state.

North Korea detonated nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009, and conducted long-range missiletests three times - in 1998, 2006 and 2009 - which were seen as a partial success.

Pyongyang is believed to have at least several nuclear weapons, with some experts saying

it could have already developed nuclear warheads small enough to be mounted on

ballistic missiles with the help of China or Pakistan.

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Planet Debate


North Threat Risk High – Succession

Generals taking over in North Korea, increasing the military threat

Newsweek, December 6, 2010, Pushing the Envelope in Asia, p. Ebscohost

Pyongyang's actions are undoubtedly tied to the recent emergence of Kim Jong-il's youngestson and designated successor, Kim Jong-un. The baby-faced heir, who had no known military

experience before being appointed as a four-star general in September, is thought to have

played a critical role in the Cheonan sinking. Recent incidents recall the deadly antics of KimJong-il after he was named to succeed his father, Kim Il-sung. In 1983 he orchestrated an

assassination attempt on the South Korean president, who was traveling in Burma. The failed

plot killed 21 people, including several members of the South Korean cabinet. Four yearslater, he allegedly masterminded the bombing of a South Korean airliner bound for Seoul,

according to North Korean agent Kim Hyon-hui. The attack killed all 115 on board. This

return to Cold War tactics seems to reflect the rise of the North's generals as they assertcontrol over Jong-un and his weakened father. Since last year, when succession rumors began

trickling out, the public voice of Pyongyang has emerged in increasingly bellicose tones from

military agencies, such as the National Defense Commission and the Korean People's Army,

instead of from the relatively moderate Foreign Ministry. It's infighting, rather than an urge toreturn to the negotiating table, that's likely driving events now. Historically, the North

Koreans have never cut a deal with weak foreign leaders, and the midterm-election rout of the

Democrats hasn't strengthened Obama's hand.

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Planet Debate


North Threat Risk High -- Sucession

Secession means more attacks are coming

Christian Science Monitor, December 26, 2010

South Korean intelligence analysts predict North Korean commanders will raise the tempo of shock strikes in the

new year to enhance the image of leader Kim Jong-il's son and heir apparent, Kim Jong-un, and prove their

loyalty to the Kim dynasty.A leading South Korean think tank affiliated with the South's National Intelligence Service came out with that

forecast this weekend – along with the prediction that Kim Jong-un, in his late 20s, would become vice chairman

of the North's powerful National Defense Commission. His father rules as commission chairman in addition to

his post as general secretary of the Workers' Party.

The Institute for National Security Strategy, an offshoot of the National Intelligence Service, warned of

increasing "unexpected moves" as the North's huge military machine of 1.1 million troops "scrambles to display

its loyalty" to Kim Jong-un.

The institute says North Korea may strike anywhere, by surprise, from the Yellow Sea to outposts along the

160-mile-long demilitarized zone that has divided the two Koreas since the signing of the Korean War truce inJuly 1953.

The goal, says the report, will be "to increase special forces and develop strategies for dominance in limited

conflicts."

2010 attacks probably tied to upcoming succession

Analysts have often expressed the view that the need to promote Kim Jong-un as a strong military leader had

much to do with the torpedoing in March of a South Korean navy vessel, the Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors,

and the Nov. 23 bombardment of a remote island in which two marines and two civilians died.Kim Jong-un, with no military background, was given the rank of a four-star general in late September and made

his public debut in Pyongyang at a massive parade on Oct. 10 that marked the 65th anniversary of the founding

of the Workers' Party.

More attacks or more nuclear testing?

The assessment of the intelligence think tank differs markedly from one issued earlier by the Institute for Foreign

Affairs and National Security, affiliated with the foreign ministry.

The diplomatic think tank agrees that the need to promote Kim Jong-un lies behind the rising confrontation, but

predicts the North will focus on staging a third nuclear test while holding off on attacks against South Korean

targets.

North Korean attack on South Korea: 8 provocations of the past decadeWhatever the forecast, each reveals the nervousness here about North Korea's strategy and tactics.

"Military provocations and nuclear tests are all options on the table," says Choi Jin-wook, senior North Korea

analyst at the Korea Institute of National Unification, which is affiliated with the unification ministry. "They

want to increase tensions."

The succession of Kim Jong-un to power, Mr. Choi adds, is "one of the major reasons they have a hard-line

policy."

South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak and his newly appointed defense minister, Kim Kwan-jin, have vowed

a strong response to future North Korean attacks, but clearly no one has any real idea where or when the Northwill strike next.

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Planet Debate


North Korea A Threat – Special Forces

North expanding special forces for quick strike capabilities

Christian Science Monitor, December 30, 2010

North Korea is building up the elite special forces used for quick strikes against South Korea

and supporting the North's nuclear and missile programs, Seoul's defense ministry said

Wednesday. The defense ministry, in a white paper that comes out every two years, saidNorth Korean special forces have grown since 2008 from 180,000 to 200,000 troops – a

privileged corps within the North's military establishment of nearly 1.2 million troops. The

buildup of special forces represents a shift from the North's previous emphasis "on all-out war in terms of

military doctrine," says Kim Sung-han, professor of international relations at Korea University. "Now they are

shifting to military provocations. To make surprise attacks successful, you have to improve your special forces."

Most of the North's special forces are near the demilitarized zone that has divided the Korean peninsula since the

Korean War, forming a front line that represents a constant threat against the South. Although a major conflictappears unlikely, analysts credit them with the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea on Nov. 23,

killing two South Korean marines and forcing much soul-searching among South Korean leaders about the

South's defenses.

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Planet Debate


Prolif A Threat – North Developing Nukes

North Korea’s uranium enrichment activities violate UN Security Council resolutions

TASS,, January 29, 2011, N Korea's uranium enrichment programmes/facilities violate UNresolution

Pyongyang's uranium enrichment programmes and facilities, which it has recently

showed to a delegation of American scientists, violate the U.N. Security Council's

resolution that bans such activities in North Korea, if this is a real facility consisting of acascade of centrifuges, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin said.

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Planet Debate


A2: North Can’t Make Bombs out of Plutonium

North enriching uranium

BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific – Political, January 28, 2011, HEADLINE: US military chief fears North Korea provocations set to increase Text of report in English by South Korean

news agency Yonhap

North Korea also revealed in November a uranium enrichment plant that could serve as a

second way of building nuclear bombs in addition to its existing plutonium programme,despite Pyongyang's claims it is producing fuel for power generation.

North can also enrich with uranium

Global News Wire - Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, January 21, 2011 Friday

U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao said at a joint press conference

Wednesday at the White House that they "agreed that North Korea must avoid further

provocations" and that "the paramount goal must be complete denuclearization of the

peninsula." Obama and Hu also "expressed concern" over North Korea's "claimed

uranium enrichment program" and "emphasized the importance of an improvement in

North-South relations and agreed that sincere and constructive inter-Korean dialogue is an

essential step." "I think some of that comes as a result of yesterday's meeting here, that for thefirst time there was an acknowledgment by the Chinese about the North Koreans' enrichment

program," Gibbs said, adding the Chinese acknowledgment of the North Korean uranium

enrichment program has made South Korea "confident enough to go into talks with the North

Koreans." China has been reluctant to acknowledge the existence of a uranium program inNorth Korea, citing a lack of first-hand information, although North Korea showed a U.S.

nuclear scientist an enrichment plant in November. The plant could serve as a second way

of building nuclear bombs in addition to its existing plutonium program , but Pyongyanginsists the facility is producing fuel for power generation.

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Planet Debate

North Korea Update – Is/Is Not A Threat

Uranium Bombs

North Korean can convert its uranium centrifuges to nuclear bombs

Heritage Foundation, States News Service, January 7, 2011 FridayTHE CASE FOR COMPREHENSIVE MISSILE DEFENSE IN ASIA

Uranium Enrichment. In November 2010, Pyongyang disclosed a previously covert uranium

enrichment facility at the Yongbyon nuclear site. Previously, Yongbyon only housed a

plutonium nuclear facility. Dr. Siegfried Hecker, former head of the Los Alamos nuclear laboratory, was shown an extensive array of 2,000 centrifuges producing low-enriched

uranium. The U.S. scientist commented that he was stunned by the size and sophistication of

the facility, which exceeded all predictions of North Korean progress on a uranium program.Dr. Hecker concluded that the centrifuges could be readily converted to produce highly

enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Lee Un-chul, a nuclear scientist at Seoul National

University, estimated that Pyongyang could produce one to two uranium weapons per year using 2,000 centrifuges.[7] Of course, if North Korea has other undetected uranium

enrichment facilities, its production capability is even greater. Successive U.S.

Administrations had asserted that North Korea began a uranium-based nuclear weapons

program in the early 1990s. Indeed, in both 1999 and 2000, the Clinton Administration wasunable to certify to Congress that North Korea was not pursuing a uranium-enrichment

capability. The U.S. intelligence community unanimously concluded in its 2002 assessment

that North Korea had an active program to acquire materials for enriching uranium to developweapons. Where disagreements existed, they were over the extent of the progress that North

Korea had made or would likely make toward achieving a covert capability to produce

uranium. Critics charged that the U.S. intelligence assessments were partisan fabrications of

the Bush Administration, but Hecker's direct observations of the uranium enrichment facilityprovide irrefutable evidence of Pyongyang's continuing efforts to develop parallel uranium

and plutonium paths to a nuclear arsenal.



Planet Debate


Ballistic Missiles a Threat

North Korea developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMS)


news agency Yonhap

North Korea will likely develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering

nuclear warheads within the coming decade, the chief US military officer said Thursday."There's little doubt in my mind, unless North Korea is deterred, that sometime in the next,

I'm not sure but, five to 10 years, the provocations ... will continue at a much higher

threat level, which could include a nuclear-capable ICBM," Adm. Michael Mullen,

chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview with Financial Times ,

according to a transcript released by the Pentagon. "That's what I believe we're looking at. I

can't be precise about the time and say it's exactly here but clearly there is evolution going onthere where the threat becomes much more serious."

Mullen's statement is in tune with Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who said earlier this

month that North Korea's missiles and nuclear weapons will pose a threat to the US

within five years. Gates also urged North Korea to impose a moratorium on nuclear andmissile testing to help revive the six-party nuclear talks.

North’s missiles are a direct threat to the US

Associated Press Online, January 13, 2011 North Korea's military: a bad hand played well

The North is also pursuing nuclear weapons, an effort the United States, South Korea andJapan are trying to stop. Pyongyang is believed to have enough weaponized plutonium for at

least half a dozen bombs, and Gates predicted Tuesday that it will have a limited ability to

deliver a weapon to U.S. shores within five years. "With the North Koreans' continuingdevelopment of nuclear weapons and their development of intercontinental ballistic missiles,

North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States, and we have to take that into

account," he said during a visit to China.

North Korea will be able to hit the US with a nuclear armed missile in 5 years

Pittsburgh Tribune Review, January 14, 2011, The North Korean threat: Direct & growing

Washington must come to grips with North Korea being able -- within five years -- to

strike the continental United States with a nuclear-armed missile.

That's how Defense Secretary Robert Gates characterized the North Korean threat

Tuesday in Beijing. Signaling a new U.S. perspective, he said North Korea's missile and

nuclear-weapons progress has been reassessed -- and underestimated consistently.



Planet Debate


Acknowledging North Korea as a direct danger to America's mainland -- not a mere

proliferator of missile and nuclear know-how -- is vital for an effective response. Beefing up

U.S. anti-missile capabilities, especially on the West Coast and in Alaska, is more necessary-- and urgent -- than ever. And America must question whether North Korea's getting

warhead-design help -- perhaps from Pakistan, which sold it uranium-enrichment equipment.Given Mr. Gates' assessment, plus China's patronage of North Korea's dictatorial dynasty and

own increasingly aggressive posture, President Obama must not approach next Wednesday'sstate visit by China's President Hu Jintao as a meeting with a reliable partner in pressuring

North Korea to abandon its hostile endeavors.

To ensure its security, America must look not to China but to itself and to like-minded

allies.



Planet Debate


Ballistic Missile Threat

North Korean ballistic missiles can strike US allies in Asia


Ballistic Missiles. North Korea has an extensive ballistic missile force that can strike South

Korea, Japan, and U.S. military bases in Asia. It is continuing to develop an ICBM that would

threaten the continental United States. North Korea has 600 Scud short-range tactical ballisticmissiles, 300 No Dong medium-range missiles, and 100 to 200 Musudan intermediate-range

ballistic missiles. The Scud missiles have an estimated range of 320 to 500 kilometers (km),

which limits them to South Korean targets. The No Dong, with a range of 1,300 km, cantarget all of Japan. The Musudan's range of 3,000 to 4,000 km enables it to hit U.S. bases on

Okinawa and Guam. The Scud missile has a conventional explosive warhead, but it could

carry chemical or biological warfare agents. Pyongyang could utilize Scud missiles to firenonpersistent chemicals at frontline units and persistent chemicals against rear logistical and

resupply targets, such as Busan Harbor. In July 2006, Pyongyang successfully launched six

Scud and No Dong missiles. In July 2009, Pyongyang launched seven Scud missiles, which

flew 300 miles prior to landing in the East Sea. The latter barrage of missiles was anunambiguous violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874, which was passed in June

2009 in response to North Korea's nuclear test of the preceding month. The resolution

demanded that North Korea "not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch usingballistic missile technology" and ordered North Korea to "suspend all activities related to its

ballistic missile program."[9] Reportedly, 12 Musudan missiles were displayed in an April

2007 military parade, but they were not observed by foreign media until an October 2010

parade. A Musudan test flight from a North Korean test facility has not been identified, butmedia reports citing military and intelligence sources indicate a possible North Korean test

flight in Iran in 2006. Pyongyang is developing two longer-range missiles, the Taepo Dong 1

(TD-1) and Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2), which have not yet reached initial operating capacity. InAugust 1998, North Korea launched a TD-1 missile that flew over Japan. Although its third

stage failed, it demonstrated a long-range capability that puts Alaska, Hawaii, and the western

United States at risk.



Planet Debate


A2: Talks Solve

North-South tensions high, talks will not be productive

D&B Country Riskline Reports (News), February 2011, Korea

Tensions with North Korea continue to cloud South Korea's 2011 security and economic

outlook. Since the North attacked the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in November,

in what was one of the most serious cross-border military exchanges since the end of the

Korean War in 1953, South Korean rhetoric and attitudes towards the North have

hardened. The government has changed the military's rules of engagement to allow it to

respond more forcefully to future attacks, and although the North has threatened to use

nuclear weapons, President Lee Myung-bak has said that the South would retaliate'relentlessly' in response to any fresh attack. Despite the distinct possibility of cross-border

escalation, neither side is averse in principle to returning to negotiations. Since the attack, the

North has repeatedly offered to return to talks on nuclear disarmament in return for aid andtrade access. However, the likelihood of fruitful talks is low; the South has demanded a

change in the North's behaviour, indicative of a commitment to nuclear disarmament,

before it will return to talks. D&B expects tensions to remain high.



Planet Debate


A2: Six Party Talks Solve North Korean Threat

North Korea has abandoned the Six Party Talks

TASS,, January 29, 2011, N Korea's uranium enrichment programmes/facilities violate UNresolutio

The six-sided talks ended in December 2008 with sharp disagreement on how to verify the

North's steps to disable its nuclear programme. The talks have been on hold ever since.

Following a long-range missile test in April the following year, the North declared dialoguewith the United States over. In July, the North declared the six-party talks dead because it was

no longer a forum of discussions on equal footing.

Six party talks have been deadlocked for years


news agency Yonhap

A six-party deal signed in 2005 by the two Koreas, the US, China, Japan and Russia calls for the North's nuclear dismantlement in return for massive economic aid and diplomatic and

political benefits. The talks, however, have been deadlocked for more than two years over the

North's nuclear and missile tests and other provocations.



Planet Debate


A2: Six Party Talks Solve North Korean Threat

Six party talks won’t resume

Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, January 2, 2011 HEADLINE: Sino-USagreement on six-party talks "unlikely" - South Korean official

SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) - A US-China summit set for later this month is unlikely to produce

an agreement on resuming six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programmes as

Washington is against convening talks for talks' sake, a South Korean official said Sunday.US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao are scheduled to meet in

Washington on Jan. 19. North Korea is expected to be a key topic for the summit amid

Chinese calls for restarting six-party talks to discuss tensions over Pyongyang's provocationsand nuclear programmes.



Planet Debate


A2: Parliamentary Talks Solve

South rejects parliamentary talks

Global Insight, January 28, 2011, South Korea Rejects North Korean Offer of Talks

South Korea today rebuffed a proposal from North Korea to hold parliamentary talks,

saying that the latest offer from the Pyongyang government "lacked sincerity".

Separately, the South Korean newspaper JoongAng Dailyquoted a senior government official

in Seoul saying that the South had effectively scrapped its demand for an apology from theNorth for the torpedoing of the Cheonan naval vessel in March and the artillery bombardment

of Yeonpyeong Island in November as direct preconditions for resuming six-party

denuclearisation talks.



Planet Debate


A2: North Would Never Attack the US

North could act irrationally and attack with subs

Chattanooga Times Free Press (Tennessee), January 15, 2011, Red North Korean threat toU.S., p. B7

Many Americans remember with anger, distress and sadness the 1950 Communist North Korean invasion of democratic South Korea. The attack led t o the U.S. defense of South K orea and the three-year-long Korean War.

After American troops initially hung on to a small South Korean beachhead, U.S. forces advanced under the brilliant leadership of Gen. Douglas MacArthur to force the North Korean invaders into retreat. But Communist Chinese forces backed North Korea.

After three bitter and bloody years, the Korean War ended in a stalemate along the 38th parallel, and a 1953 armistice.

Since then, South Korea happily has become a thriving democratic republic. But Communist North Korea has remained a prison for its own impoverished people -- and a continuing military threat.Now, in 2011, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has felt it necessary to warn that the erratic North Korean Communist dictatorship -- now possessing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, but not good judgment or good intentions -- poses a direct threat to the United States

and the American people.

Do you recall that a Japanese submarine shelled California in World War II? Well,

Communist North Korea possesses submarines, nuclear weapons and animosity.

But surely the North Korean Communists would not be so foolish as to attack the United

States, many believe.

Unfortunately, the vicious and irrational regime in North Korea cannot be counted upon

to be reasonable, even in its own interests.

Militant North Korean Communists constantly threaten renewed war on the KoreanPeninsula itself, as well. There are almost constant provocations, including deadly

military attacks even on South Korean civilians.

Gates said this week of the current danger, "We consider this a situation of real

concern, and we think there is some urgency to proceeding down the track of

negotiations and engagement."



Planet Debate


A2: Yeonpeong Attack Just a Negotiating Ploy

Attack is just part of a hard-line policy shift, not a negotiating ploy


You can't really blame anyone who clings to the hope that North Korea's deadlybombardment of a South Korean town last week was only a particularly nasty negotiating

ploy. Pyongyang has always relied on extortionist bargaining tactics, and right now the North

is verging on one of its worst food shortages in years. Nevertheless, the attack on

Yeonpyeong Island was more likely an early manifestation of a hardline policy shift in

Pyongyang. And what makes it even scarier is that no outside power--not even China,

the closest thing North Korea has to a friend--can do much about the North's

psychopathic behavior without risking a potentially catastrophic collapse on the

peninsula.

Attack was premeditated


Evidence has emerged since the Yeonpyeong attack that it was premeditated. On Aug. 9, the

North fired roughly 100 artillery pieces toward South Korean waters, and later that same day,

North Korean drones were spotted hovering near Yeonpyeong, presumably scouting itsdefenses. After the top U.S. officer in South Korea paid a visit to the island late last week, the

North responded by launching another artillery drill, and its official news agency warned that

"the situation on the Korean Peninsula is inching closer to the brink of war."



Planet Debate


North Has Attacked

North Korean attacks have killed many South Koreans

Japan Economic Newswire, January 26, 2011 N. Korea should hold 'meaningful dialogue' onnuclear program: Steinberg

Inter-Korean relations have been at their lowest level in years in the wake of the North's

artillery attack on a South Korean border island in November, killing four South Koreans.

In March last year, North Korea allegedly sank a South Korean warship in a torpedo attack,killing 46 South Korean sailors. The North has strongly denied its involvement in the

incident.

North has attacked the South twice

Associated Press Online, January 13, 2011 North Korea's military: a bad hand played well

In the last year, the North has twice shocked the South, allegedly sinking a South

Korean warship in March, killing 46, and then shelling Yeonpyeong Island, which sits in

waters the North claims as its own.



Planet Debate


Bioweapons Threat

North Korea’s bioweapons are a threat

Popular Mechanics, June 2009, http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/4208958

In contrast to the global frenzy triggered by North Korea's nuclear weapons test, the threat of

biochemical WMDs has prompted a muted response from the West. The reason may be

what former weapons inspector Christopher Davis has dubbed "nuclear blindness,"

which he defines as "the tunnel vision ... brought on by the mistaken belief that it is only

the size of the bang that matters."

DUAL-USE DECEPTION

NORTH KOREA'S CHEMICAL and Bioweapons (CBW) program appears to be

modeled on that of the former Soviet Union, which covertly constructed a massive

biological weapons infrastructure within the shell of a civilian research organization

called Biopreparat. Inside Biopreparat, the Soviets developed deadly agents that includedweaponized forms of anthrax and pneumonic plague. Intelligence reports from the United

States and South Korea list anthrax, smallpox, pneumonic plague, cholera and botulism

toxins as leading components of North Korea's bioweapons projects. "Information from

U.S. government sources indicates that North Korea is capable of growing several biologicalagents," says Michael Stebbins, head of Biology Policy at the Federation of American

Scientists. And, he says, the country "has the infrastructure to weaponize them." Anthrax is

believed to be one of North Korea's most fully developed biological weapons. Growinganthrax on a large scale is relatively easy: It can be done with basic brewing equipment.

Sources indicate that North Korea also has developed the ability to mill anthrax (grinding

the cake into microscopic powder), and to treat it to form a lethal and durable weapon. An

attack might use a modified missile that cruises at low altitude to spray a fine mist of weaponized germs over its target area. The resulting deaths and injuries could number in the

thousands. Following the same model that it employs in its BW program, the North Korean

regime has folded a chemical weapons (CW) initiative into its civilian chemical industry. A

2003 CIA report stated: "Pyongyang continue[s] to acquire dual-use chemicals that

could potentially be used to support [its] long-standing CW program. North Korea's CW

[can] produce bulk quantities of nerve, blister, choking, and blood agents, using its sizable,although aging, chemical industry." An example is mustard gas, famously employed during

World War I. It is made using 2-chloroethanol, a byproduct of carbide production. Daniel

Pinkston, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif., says most assessments of North Korea's

WMD capabilities point to a chemical weapons stockpile of some 5000 tons of agents,

including large amounts of sarin, mustard gas and hydrogen cyanide. That would make

it one of the largest chemical arsenals in the world. Up to 30 percent of the country's

missile and artillery stocks is capable of delivering such chemicals, according to the Nuclear

Threat Initiative, an organization that monitors nuclear, biological and chemical weapons

proliferation.



Planet Debate


Tensions High

Korean tensions high

SERI Quarterly, January 2011, p. 21

Where are Inter-Korean Relations Headed?

Despite the passage of many decades since the end of the Korean War, no genuine peace

has ever been declared on the Korean peninsula. Instead, relations between the two

Koreas have blown hot and cold, fluctuating between stretches of relative stability and

passive neglect, active attempts at rapprochement, and equally active bouts of verbal andmilitary sparring. Today, however, tensions between the two Koreas have never been

higher. The sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26, 2010 marked a

particularly unwelcome development in inter-Korean relations; one that South Korea waslittle inclined to address as it prepared for the G20 Seoul summit. The Cheonan incident

alone, however, was not enough to completely derail attempts at dialogue, and by October,

South Korea was hinting that it would treat the resumption of the Six-party Talks and theCheonan incident as two separate issues if Pyongyang acts in good faith in pursuing

denuclearization.1

Such overtures from South Korea and the US, however, failed to elicit any response in

kind from North Korea. Instead, on November 12, North Korea took US nuclear

scientist Siegfried S. Hecker on a tour of the construction site for its experimental light-

water reactor facility, where it revealed 2,000 centrifuges capable of producing highly

enriched uranium (HEU) used in nuclear weapons. On November 23, North Korea

launched an artillery barrage on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island.

In contrast to previous skirmishes, which had occurred in the West Sea between naval

vessels, this direct attack on South Korean soil proved an immense shock to the Korean

public. In response, South Korea provided repeated warnings that it would aggressivelyretaliate against any further provocations, including the complete destruction of the

point of origin of the initial attack . The South Korean government also announced plans to

turn five islands near the West Sea border into a high-tech military base, as well as plans tobolster deterrence of the North through reform of its defense systems and cooperation with the

US. Undaunted, North Korea then announced a state of "quasiwarfare" regarding the joint

South Korea-US military exercises in the West Sea from November 23 to December 1, andthreatened "merciless retaliation" if the exercise violated its territorial waters.



Planet Debate


## North Korea Not a Threat ##



Planet Debate


North-South Talks Now

North and South Korea resuming talks

BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific – Politico January 28, 2011m US welcomes inter-Koreanmilitary dialogue

The United States Thursday welcomed South Korea's proposal to have military dialogue with

North Korea in mid-February on defusing tensions triggered by the North's torpedoing of a

South Korean warship and the shelling of a border island last year."We welcome inter-Korean dialogue," State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said. "We

think it's an important step in the process."

North Korea last week proposed high-level defence talks to address the artillery attack

on the South's Yeonpyeong Island and the sinking of the Ch'o'nan [Cheonan] that killed

50 people, including two civilians.

South Korea this week proposed that preparatory talks be held on 11 February, whilesuggesting a separate meeting to gauge North Korea's sincerity regarding

denuclearization ahead of the restart of the six-party talks.

Amid a flurry of recent diplomatic activity, including Chinese President Hu Jintao's

visit to Washington last week, South Korean officials have said a North Korean apology

for the Ch'o'nan [Cheonan]'s sinking and the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong is not a

precondition for the resumption of the six-party talks, which have been stalled over the

North's missile and nuclear tests in 2009 and ensuing provocations last year.

Crowley, however, still wants Pyongyang to address those provocations before the

multilateral nuclear talks convene.

North willing to engage in talks

Woodstock Sentinel-Review (Ontario, Canada), January 27, 2011, p. 9

North Korea's foreign ministry said, without referring directly to the South's proposal for

nuclear talks, that it was prepared to engage in any form of dialogue as long as it helped

to reduce tension.

"It is our position that each party eliminate actions that will be seen as provocation by

the other side by building confidence through dialogue and negotiations, and we are

prepared to work to make that happen," an unnamed ministry spokesman said in

comments carried by the official KCNA news agency.



Planet Debate



Food shortages and pressure from China are pushing North Korea into talks

THE KOREA HERALD, January 29, 2011, HEADLINE: Who holds cards?

BODY:

North Korea's chronic food shortage is no secret. Still, few would have imagined that

underfed soldiers go AWOL, take farm animals away from nearby houses for food or rob

civilians of their personal possessions. That is what Radio Free Asia of the United States hasrecently reported, quoting North Korean residents. It also reported the North Korean

military has virtually canceled an annual wintertime drill because of the worsening food

problem.

If so, it does not take genius to guess that a deepening concern for food is a main motive,

if not the only one, behind North Korea's offensive for dialogue with South Korea. It

may also have been pressured by China, its sole military ally, to engage South Korea intalks, given Chinese President Hu Jintao's Jan. 19 agreement with U.S. President

Barack Obama that "sincere and constructive inter-Korean dialogue is an essential

step" toward peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.



Planet Debate



South has accepted the North’s offer to talk

Voice of America News, January 21, 2011, Koreas Move Toward Military Talks to Defuse

Tensions

South Korea has accepted North Korea’s offer for military talks because Pyongyang

appears willing to discuss provocative acts that last year brought the Korean peninsula

to its highest level of tension in decades.Although South Korean officials responded positively to North Korea--s offer of military talks, they made clear on Friday that ending Pyongyang--s nuclear weapons programs must remain the top priority for dialogue.

Chun Hae-sun, the South Korean Unification M inistry spokesman, Chun says Pyongyang, in its letter asking for resumption of military talks, did not mention the nuclear issue so Seoul will propose holding high-level talks on the North--s nuclear program.

At the Defense Ministry in Seoul, officials say next week they will propose a date for preparatory discussions to pave the way for high-level military talks.

North Korea--s state-run broadcasting service on Friday said the armed forces minister proposed holding military talks within t he first 10 days of February. His l etter, according to the broadcast, confirms the talks will include "expressing views" on the sinking of a South K orean ship

and the shelling of a South Korean island last year.North Korea denies any responsibility for the sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean navy ship, last M arch. It justified the shelling of Yeonpyeong island last November as a response to what it considered provocative South Korean

military drills in disputed waters.

Professor Yang Moo-jin at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul says there i s a 50-50 chance" of the high-level talks occurring.

Yang says if both sides are able to reach an agreement during working-level talks, then it is

possible for such a meeting to occur late next month. But, he cautions, if the preliminarydiscussions fail, a higher-level meeting could be postponed indefinitely.

If military talks do resume, they will be the first cross-border meeting since the attack

on Yeonpyeong. Four South Koreans died in the shelling.

North Korea prepared for unconditional talks

UPI, January 10, 2011 North Korea proposes unconditional talks

North Korea opened the door wider for talks with South Korea, saying it is prepared to

unconditionally restart the stalled inter-Korean negotiations.

"We do not want to see the present South Korean authorities pass the five-year term of their

office idly without North-South dialogue," North Korea's Committee for Peaceful

Reunification of Korea said in a written statement to the official government media outlet

Korean Central News Agency."There is neither conditionality in the North's proposal for dialogue nor need to cast any

doubt about its real intention."



Planet Debate


North Not a Proliferation Threat

China putting anti-nuclearization pressure on the North

Thai Press Reports, January 28, 2011, p. online

"It's very important that the international community send a strong message that the

uranium enrichment program, indeed any uranium enrichment program by North

Korea, would be inconsistent with its international obligations, with Security Council

resolutions and with its own commitments," U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinbergsaid.

"I think the strong position that we've all taken and I think the clear message coming

out of the summit between President Obama and President Hu should help drive that

message home," the diplomat said after talks with South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-

hwan.North Korea revealed in November that it is running a uranium enrichment facility, adding to international concern about the communist nation's nuclear capabilities. Uranium, if highly

enriched, can be used to make weapons, providing Pyongyang with a second way of building atomic bombs after its existing plutonium-based program.The issue was a key topic at last week's summit between Obama and Hu in Washington. In a joint statement issued after the meeting, the two leaders "expressed concern" about theuranium program while also calling for "sincere and constructive" dialogue between the two Koreas.

China's agreement to voice concern about the North's uranium program was a step

forward because Beijing had been reluctant to even acknowledge the program's

existence, citing the lack of firsthand evidence. The North's last remaining major ally,China does not usually criticize Pyongyang.

South Korea has called for referring the matter to the U.N. Security Council, and the

apparent change in China's stand about the program brightened such prospects.

Beijing's backing is crucial for the move because it is one of the five veto-holding

permanent members at the Council.

North doesn’t have a bomb

Reuters, January 31, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/uk-korea-north-nuclear-

idUKTRE70U1O920110131 DA: 2/2/11

HOW ADVANCED IS THE NORTH'S PLUTONIUM PROGRAMME?

The North Korean nuclear weapons programme dates back to the 1980s when it began construction of its Yongbyon complex, about 100 km (60 miles) north of Pyongyang. It consists of a five-megawatt reactor, a fuel fabrication facility and a plutonium reprocessing plant, where

weapons-grade material is extracted from spent fuel rods.

The North tested nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009, but still has not shown it has a

working nuclear bomb. Proliferation experts say it has enough fissile material for up to 10

nuclear weapons.Under the terms of a previous aid-for-disarmament agreement, North Korea dismantled the

main reactor, and despite restoring parts of the plant, it is still not operational.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/uk-korea-north-nuclear-idUKTRE70U1O920110131


http://www.reuters.com/places/north-korea








Planet Debate


### Japan Update ###



Planet Debate


North Korea Link

North Korea threat requires US military presence in Japan

The Japan Times, January 21, 2011,U.S. alliance vital for national security: Kan

Masami Ito STAFF WRITER Prime Minister Naoto Kan stressed Thursday the

importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance and the importance of the continued presence of

American forces in Okinawa for the national security.

Kan apologized to Okinawa locals for "causing confusion and deeply hurting their feelings"

over the contentious relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma during a speech

hosted by the Friendship Exchange Council, a nonprofit international exchange organization.The prime minister, however, noted that the U.S. military presence was necessary amid the

"extremely grave" situation in Asia at present due in large part to North Korea's

nuclear threat."As long as the presence of U.S. bases in Okinawa is necessary for the security of all of

Japan, it is necessary to make ceaseless efforts to share the pain and burden of the prefecture

with all the people in the country," Kan said. "I promise to strengthen efforts through various

opportunities to seek the understanding and cooperation of those living outside Okinawaregarding the burden of hosting U.S. bases."

Japan-U.S. ties have often been been strained since the Democratic Party of Japan took power

in August 2009 because of the Futenma relocation.But Kan stressed that the change in government does not affect relations with the U.S . He is

set to hold a summit with President Barack Obama in Washington in the first half of 2011, at which time the two leaders are expected to outline a joint vision for the alliance.

"I believe the Japan-U.S. all iance is the foundation of Japan's foreign policy and shall be maintained and strengthened regardless of the change in power," Kan said, adding the alliance has also contributed to the peace and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region.

On China, Kan expressed concern over the country's lack of transparency in its rapidly e xpanding defense budget and military activities around the East China Sea.

Japan presence necessary to deter North Korea

RTT News (United States), January 14, 2011 Friday

Gates: Presence Of U.S. Forces In Japan Critical To Regional Security

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Friday emphasized the importance of the half-

century-old U.S.-Japan military alliance and the continued presence of American troops

in Japan, stressing that they were essential for maintaining regional security.Addressing students at Keio University in Tokyo on Friday, Gates stressed that the U.S.-

Japan alliance has helped in deterring the North Korean regime from making more

outrageous military provocations and countering China's increasingly assertive stance .He said the U.S.-Japan defense pact signed in 1960 is based "not just on economic and

military necessity, but on shared values," adding that the alliance must continue to grow and

be successful for ensuring regional security and stability.

The Defense Secretary said the North Korean military provocations would have been

more outrageous and China might have behaved more assertively towards its neighbors

if not for the continued presence of American military bases in the region.

"Working through regional and international forums puts our alliance in the best position toconfront some of Asia's toughest security challenges," Gates said, referring particularly to the

tensions triggered in region by the recent unprovoked shelling of a South Korean border

island by North Korea.



Planet Debate


US-Japan Security Cooperation Increasing

US-Japan security cooperation increasing

Jiji Press Ticker Service, January 7, 2011 Japan, U.S. Agree to Accelerate Talks onSecurity Cooperation

Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

agreed Thursday that the two countries will accelerate talks on bilateral cooperation

to deal with possible contingencies in and around Japan. Maehara and Clinton, meeting here, reached the agreement as part of efforts to deepen the

Japan-U.S. alliance.

They also agreed that the two countries will review and reaffirm their common

strategic goals in light of changes in the security environment in the Asia-Pacific region,

including China's growing maritime activities and North Korea's nuclear development.

The ministers also agreed that Japan and the United States will discuss how to reduce theburden on Okinawa Prefecture, southern Japan, from hosting U.S. military bases.

The agreement came after Maehara sought U.S. cooperation in smoothing the way for the

relocation of the Marine Corps' Futenma air station in Okinawa.

Diplomacy and deterrence have not prevented North Korean nuclearization


Diplomacy, engagement, international condemnation, and United Nations resolutions have

not deterred North Korea from developing missile and nuclear weapons capabilities.While Washington continues to seek diplomatic resolutions to the ballistic missile threat, it

is critical that the U.S. simultaneously pursue missile defense programs to protect itself and

its allies.

korea case args

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