LATINO EDUCATION AND THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES

National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials

6th Annual National Summit on the State of Latino Education

Sept 27-29, 2010

Paul E. Lingenfelter, President

Differences in College Attainment Between Younger & Older Adults—U.S. & OECD Countries, 2006

2Source: OECD. Table A1. 3a. Education at a Glance, 2008

Jobs in the last 4 decades increasingly have required postsecondary education

79%

41%

High School or Less

Some College and AA

27%

10%

BA and above

11%

32%

0

15

30

45

60

75

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Source: Current Population Survey, Various years.

Education and the U.S. Labor Force, 1973-2018

Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, 1973 & 2009; Anthony Carnevale, Help Wanted: Projections of jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018, June 2010

Jobs

(in m

illio

ns)

Challenges: College participation by socioeconomic status

College Participation By Achievement Test and Socioeconomic

Status Quartile

SES Quartile

Lowest Highest

AchievementQuartile

Highest 78% 97%

Lowest 36% 77%

Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001.

Challenges: Degree attainment by SAT scores and socioeconomic status

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1200-1600 1100-1199 1000-1099 800-999 400-799

SAT Score

BA

+ A

tta

inm

en

t R

ate

Top SES

2nd SES

3rd SES

Bottom SES

Source: Anthony Carnevale, Liberal Education, Fall 2008, p. 58.

Latinos in a national context

Source: Chronicle Analysis U.S Department of Education Digest of Education Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division; NCES Education Projections to 2018

1998-2008 Enrollment Growth Latino Percent of Population and Enrollment 2008-2018

WICHE Projections of High School Graduates

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.

Latino high school graduate population will grow substantially in Western and Southern states

WICHE Projections of High School Graduates

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.

Latino high school graduate population will not be as dramatic in Midwestern and Northeastern states

Latino High School Seniors (2008-09)

WA 2%

OR 1%

CA 35%

AK

NV 1%

MT

CO 2%

OK 1%

WI 1%

NE

HI

ID

WY

AZ 5%

KS 1%

ND

IA

AR

UT 1%

NM 2%

TX 20%

MN 1%

MO

LA

SD

MS

KY

IL 4%

MI 1%

NY 5%

GA 1%

SC

VA 1%

MD 1%

AL

TN

IN 1%

OH

PA 1%

FL 7%

NC 1%

WVDE

NJ 3%

ME

VTNH

MA 1%RI

CT 1%

District of Columbia (not shown)

Un-shaded states = 0% - 0.5%

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data, 2009

Out of 100…

White Kindergartne

rs

Black Kindergartne

rs

Latino Kindergartner

sGraduate from high school or get a GED

94 88 68

Complete at least some college

67 51 36

Obtain at least a Bachelor's degree

37 20 12

Source: The Education Trust. Analysis of U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. March Current Population Surveys, 1971-2008, in The Condition of Education, 2009.

Composition of Total State Expenditures by Function, Fiscal 1987 - 2008

Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, 2008 State Expenditure Report

State General Fund Expenditures, FY 1990 & 2008

Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, 1990 & 2008 State Expenditure Report

-0.5 -1.0-1.0 -1.6 -2.1 -2.3 -2.8

-2.9-3.0 -3.3 -3.8

-3.9 -4.2-4.2-4.3-4.3-4.4-4.4 -4.8

-4.8-4.8 -5.1

-5.2-5.2-5.3 -5.6

-5.6-5.7-5.7

-5.8-5.8-5.9 -6.2

-6.3 -6.5 -6.7-6.8-6.9-7.0-7.0 -7.4 -8.0 -8.2

-8.9 -9.3-9.3 -9.8

-10.5-10.7

-5.7

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

UtahM

ontana

New Hampshire

DelawareNew Jersey

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

WisconsinVerm

ontO

hioNorth Dakota

ConnecticutKansas

ArkansasVirginia

NebraskaO

klahoma

MinnesotaColorado

West Virginia

KentuckyM

ichiganArizona

New YorkG

eorgiaHawaiiIllinois

PennsylvaniaAlaska

Rhode IslandU

nited States

New Mexico

CaliforniaIowa

IndianaNorth Carolina

FloridaIdaho

South CarolinaSouth Dakota

Missouri

Washington

OregonTexas

NevadaTennesseeM

ississippiLouisianaAlabam

a

Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005.

Projected state and local budget deficits as a percent of revenues, 2013

Composition of Spending as a Share of GDPAssuming Discretionary Spending Grows with GDP

after 2005and All Expiring Tax Provisions are Extended

Federal Budget – Comptroller General

National Academy of Public Administration

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

-

2,000,000.0

4,000,000.0

6,000,000.0

8,000,000.0

10,000,000.0

12,000,000.0

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000 $

6,62

1

$7,

385

$7,

756

$7,

892

$7,

887

$7,

769

$7,

725

$7,

510

$7,

079

$6,

824

$6,

905

$7,

134

$7,

217

$7,

450

$7,

670

$7,

858

$7,

931

$7,

961

$7,

667

$7,

140

$6,

661

$6,

573

$6,

893

$7,

099

$7,

220

$6,

904

$2,

147

$2,

245

$2,

341

$2,

403

$2,

469

$2,

518

$2,

575

$2,

657

$2,

866

$3,

043

$3,

146

$3,

230

$3,

343

$3,

375

$3,

387

$3,

384

$3,

293

$3,

278

$3,

289

$3,

360

$3,

525

$3,

718

$3,

891

$3,

982

$4,

027

$4,

106

Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment (millions)

Pu

blic

FT

E E

nro

llmen

t (M

illio

ns)

Do

llars

per

FT

E

Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service are included in the above figures. Constant 2009 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA).

Source: SSDB

Public FTE Enrollment and Education Appropriations per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1985-2009

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

24.5%

30.1%

34.7%

37.4%

Recession

5 year

10 year

25 year

Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service is included in net tuition revenue, but excluded from total educational revenue in calculating the above figures.

Source: SSDB

Net Tuition as a Percent of Public Higher Education Total Education Revenue, U.S., Fiscal 1984-2009

Distribution: $/FTE and Enrollments

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Average Full Educational Cost per FTE Student Total Headcount EnrollmentAverage Full Educational Cost per FTE Student Total Headcount Enrollment

Tota

l Head

cou

nt E

nro

ll-m

en

t, 20

06

Source: Delta Cost Project IPEDS Database (Full Ed Cost from 10-year matched set; Enrollment from unmatched set)

Full

Ed

uca

tional C

ost

per

FTE

Stu

dent

(in 2

00

6

dolla

rs)

% Growth in Appropriations per FTE 1994 to 2009 constant 2009 dollars

Source: SSDB and SHEEO SHEF FY 2009Notes: All constant 2009 dollars have been adjusted by the Higher Education Cost Adjustment, EMI and COLA2009 State and Local Support and Educational Appropriations include about $2.3 billion of ARRA Funds

% Change in Total Revenue per FTE, 1994-2009 constant 2009 dollars

Source: SSDB and SHEEO SHEF FY 2009Notes: All constant 2009 dollars have been adjusted by the Higher Education Cost Adjustment, EMI and COLA2009 State and Local Support and Educational Appropriations include about $2.3 billion of ARRA Funds

Cost per FTE by Carnegie Grouping, 2007 (public institutions)

Source: SHEEO, Degree Production and Cost Trends; A National Analysis, 2010

Cost per Degree by Carnegie Grouping, 2007 (public institutions)

Source: SHEEO, Degree Production and Cost Trends; A National Analysis, 2010

Wrong Ideas about Money

There is a “right” amount

The only way to get better results is spend more money

We can get the results we need without spending more money

Right Questions about Money

What do we need from higher education?

What can we do better with the money we have?

What do we need that justifies additional funds?

It takes more than money…

Support K-12 Common Core State Standards for Math and English

Insist that postsecondary institutions set ambitious goals to increase the number of students completing degrees and certificates

Encourage students to study full-time or nearly full-time. Too much work while pursuing postsecondary education is a poison pill

Support higher tuition in community colleges in California, while insisting on sufficient state and federal student aid and user-friendly application processes.

Contact Information

Paul LingenfelterPresident, SHEEO

paul@SHEEO.org(303) 541-1605

SHEEO, the national association of state-wide higher education executives, focuses on public policy for higher education in the U.S. It was founded in

1954.