League of Legends:Predictive Analysis on the Professional SceneBy Justin White

Background

• What is LoL?o 27 million daily players worldwideo 67 million monthly playerso 5 vs. 5o 118 champions currently

Picks and Bans

• Prior to gameo Ban three championso Draft champions

Professional Scene

• Primary Tournaments for each Region

• North Americao NA League Championship Series

• Europeo EU League Championship Series

• Koreao OGN

International Tournaments

• Season 3 World Finalso 2 million dollar prize poolo 14 teams

Problem Definition

• Predict what champions one team will picko Given variable number of banso Given 5 champion pickso Given timeo Output 5 picks

• Dynamic Bayes Networkso Relates variables over timesteps

Implementation

• Generate MySQL Databaseo Fill with picks and bans

Each champion is given a numbero Team 1 picks…o Team 2 picks...o Timeo Win/Loss

Implementation

• Projenyo The Probabilistic Networks Generator in Javao Requires

Matlab Bayes Net Toolbox JMatLink

http://projeny.sourceforge.net

https://code.google.com/p/bnt/

http://jmatlink.sourceforge.net/

Status

• Database

• Environment

• Test learning algorithmso Bayesian Parameter Learningo Batch MLE/MAP parameter learning using EM

Thank You