Data Driven Safety

X-15 Simulator

X-15 Simulator UseTime honored criteria to predict aircraft behavior failed to uncover serious threatsPilot controlled flight-simulation device developed to aid researchResearchers could now simulate and analyze hazardous conditions at a lower riskUnknown hazards of controlling X-15 flight explored before flight 10 hours simulation for 1 hour of flightThe application of X-15 simulation techniques to other aerospace applications was an unforeseen data-information-knowledge safety benefit of that program

Flight Data Recorders

Commercial Aviation Safety Analysis Of DataEvolved from research programs in the 1950sMetal strip scribed with basic parametersHeading / Time / Airspeed / AltitudeIn 1958 the Civil Aeronautics Administration mandated use in commercial aircraft By 1980s second generation digital recorders were mandated which captured 11 parameters for up to 25 hours of recording timePitch / Roll / Vert & Long Accels / Thrust / Controls / Radio transmission

The 1960s Marked the Beginning of Significant Improvements in Aviation Safety05/16/2002 FT-004Wc

Data Collection & Analysis Digital Flight Data RecordersDFDR (Black Box)Modern equipment has several hundred recorded discrete parametersPost accident investigations able to more accurately identify cause Challenged to maintain hazard identification focus versus establishing blame Aviation safety recorded remarkably improved

Flight Operations Quality AssuranceSystematic analysis of routine dataThousands of hours of recorded data reduced to distribution graphsSafety departments can focus on most critical information that exceeds some predetermined value

Digital Flight Data Recorder

Routine Download and AnalysisData Information - KnowledgeEuropean community has employed this for over 30 yearsU.S. just now implementingLitigious society turns safety information into a liabilityNon-punitive policy is imperative to successObjective is to identify trends not individualsCooperative efforts of 3 main parties necessaryIndustry / CompanyRegulatorsLaborPositive results already realized

Computer Technology Enhances SafetyDigital Flight Data Acquisition Units DFDAUThousands of information sources can report to a central recording unitQuick Access Recorders QAREase of access to data streamPurpose of Program is to:Detect latent patterns of behavior in human performance Weaknesses in the aviation system supporting infrastructureAnomalies in aircraft performance

New Focus on the HazardThousands of hours of data reduced to distribution charts (Information) Adverse systemic trends now addressed as root cause versus human failings (Knowledge)Leading Indicators in trend data are point of focus versus accident investigation (Data Mining)Safety departments can identify trends and lead decision makers to address highest threat (Proactive vs. Reactive)

Worldwide and U. S. Airline Fatalities Classified by Accident Type 1992 through 2001Total Worldwide Fatalities - 6,926

Worldwide

U. S. OperatorsCFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities Worldwide = 4,523 or 65%6/10/02 AT-002WW number offatal accidents(112 total)U.S. Operators(22 total)2731222322817831382CA989CC212CFITLoss ofcontrolin flightIn-flightfireMid-aircollisionFueltankexplosionTakeoffconfig.Wind-shearFuelexhaus-tionLandingRunwayIncursionUn-knownIce/snowTurbu-lenceRTOMisc.fatalityCFIT = Controlled Flight Into TerrainRTO = Refused TakeoffLoss of Control: CA = Control Available; CC = Control CompromisedNote:Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included.Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded.Western-built commercial transports > 60,000 lbs.Hijack and Sabotage events are excluded171011114301100Number of Fatalities

Data Driven Safety SummarySafety departments generally seen by accountants as not contributing to profitability Safety as a Cost CenterPowerful new tools allow safety departments to statistically predict where the next high cost accident will happen Limited resources are focused on the most significant hazardsReductions in maintenance, operating, and training costs realized Safety as a Profit Center