Major factors influencing food security in Southern Africa

GOSA 2011

Presented by Pieter Esterhuysen

09/03/11

Food security

Food safety

Food hygiene

Malnutrition

Hunger

Underweight

?????

1 billion people do not have enough to eat = › populations of USA/EU/Canada

Malnutrition is the worlds largest risk to health - greater than the combined risk of Aids/Malaria/Tuberculoses

98 percent of the world's hungry live in developing countries

Women = 50% world's population, but 60 % hungry

10.9 million children under five die in developing countries each year

1 out of 4 children - roughly 146 million - in developing countries are underweight

Lack of Vitamin A kills a million infants a year

Food security exists when all people, at alltimes have physical and economic access

to sufficient , safe and nutritious food to meettheir dietary needs and food preferences

for an active and healthy life (FAO)

The concept of Food Security

International Food Security

1450

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2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Vol

ume

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Production Consumption

World maize production and consumption

Food security in Southern Africa

SSA has a serious food security problem

Up to 90 of food production is rain fed35% of GDP40% of exports70% of employment80% of staple needsUp to 50% below poverty linePop. growth = +-2% › production growthThus – food gap is growing

Food Security

Adequacy Acceptability

Accessibility Availability

Determinants of Food Security

Food security in Southern Africa

Affordability = Can I get it when I need it? Availability = Is there enough?

50% of our continents population earn $1 and less per dayIndividuals are poor in our continentFood security is in the first place a socio-economic issue

More food is not = to less hunger/ more food security

Country (GDP/capita) vs. individual disposable income (Botswana = US$8 000 pa) Economic growth (sluggish but picking up)Unemployment rate (10% tot 60% ??)Distribution of income and wealthNGO and GO programmes

Affordability

Action

NGO and GO programmes (food supply and supply driven)Programmes to stimulate small scale production (360%)Stimulate economic growth (poor people to share)Land ownership issues and other policy issuesAll other issues hampering development of the ag sector

Affordability

Availability

Availability ≠ local productionAvailability ≠ surplus in a country/region

Availability of staple = sophisticated effective integration ofthe food value chain

Availability

1. Infrastructure

Food Security demands safe storage

Storage (distribution/local crop – 20%)Support SGRBag focusLack of critical massLocation and managementNo specialised profit motiveGood growth (NGO and GO)

Zam 2 milZim 3.5 milMal 0.7 milMoz 0.045 milTan 0.25 mil

Availability

1. Infrastructure

Food Security demands a free flow of grains

Road, rail and port

Major problem

East London/Durban/Maputo/Beira/Nacala/MombasaRoad and rail in the RSA ????East West and North South corridors (SADC – China?)

Availability

2. Markets (Price discovery)

Natural Food security demands transparent prices and base recognition

SAFEX ZamACE ACE (Malawi) ZIMACE

(liquidity/cash/trust/storage solution/Price?)

Availability

3. Status of trading community

Food security demands solutions for time,location, access problems

Hated species Solve the time problemSolve the location problemSolve the standardisation problemProvide market accessNeeds resources and riskEnemy = gov. intervention/currency

Availability

4. Financing options

Food security demands a well functioning commodity value chain (carry finance)

HIGH LOW SPREAD (FINANCING??)Africa trade cash!Lack of acceptable storageLack of liquidityLack of transparent pricesLack of hedging optionsOwnership arrangements - security

Availability

5. Government involvement

Food Security ‘demands’ what? The market solved the RSA problem (transparent/stable playing field)

Intervention in pricesIntervention in trading optionsAdministration/policies (borders)SGR (procurement and liquidation)Based on trust problem

(inward logistics/political sensitivity-Malawi elections – fertiliser, Zimbabwe aid distribution)

Zim = 0.5 mil mtZam = 0.2 mil mtMal = 0.2 mil mtTan = 0.1 mil mtMoz = 0.06 mil mt

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Availability

6. Small scale vs. Commercial production

Food security demands availability and affordability

Policies/investment focused commercial productionFormal inputs = import parity pricedCannot compete in local marketsProvide tradable commodity – not affordable foodIncrease small scale production???

Country Cleared Arable land

Arable land cultivated

Maize yield

Total maize production

SADC+Kenya-RSA

77 million Ha

31 % 1.1 Mt/Ha

16 million Mt

Food Aid = 700 000 mt to 1.5 million mt

Maize production in Southern Africa

Double hectares = +16 mil mtDouble yields = +16 mil mtHalve post harvest losses = + 800 000 mt

Total availability = 62.7 mil mtPrevious available = 14.4 mil mt

Maize production increase

Economic effect

Effect on region

+- US$ 8 billion (+-R56 000 000 000)

Effect on a household

Old income = $80New income = $360

Income increase = 350%

FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ANALYSEDFOOD SECURITY CAN BE THE TOPIC TO PHILOSIFYING

FOOD SECURITY CAN BE A POLITICAL INSTRUMENTFOOD SECURITY CAN BE TRADED

FOOD SECURITY CAN PROVIDE PROFITSFOOD SECURITY COULD JUSTIFY THE EXISTANCE OF NGO’S

?

FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ALL THESE THINGSBUT

IN ESSENCE, FOOD SECURITY DISCRIBES

THE BASIC STATE OF HUMAN KIND

I CARE ABOUT THAT

FOOD SECURITY