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makroekonomikuri politikis gavlena ekonomikis ganviTarebis tendenciebze

nikoloz ostapenko iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis

ekonomikur mecnierebaTa magistri a(a)ip-saqarTvelos ekonomikuri kvlevebis biuros damfuZnebeli,

gamgeobis wevri

S e s a v a l i

Eekonomikuri meqanizmi arc Tu stabiluri sistemaa da iseTi sidide, rogoric erToblivi gamoSvebis moculobaa SeiZleba ganicdides ryevebs. ekonomikuri koniunqturis cvalebadobze umniSvnelovanes gavlenas sxvadasxva faqtorebTan erTad politikuri Sokebi axdes, romlebic warmoadges saxelisuflebo struqturebis mier, makroekonomikur doneze gadawyvetilebis miRebis Sedegebs. swored am Sokebis zemoqmedebisa da gavrcelebis meqanizmi da maT Soris mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSiris problema warmoadgens davis da azrTa sxvadasxvaobis sagans.

mocemuli statiis pirvel nawilSi Cemi mizania Sevexo da mimovixilo makroekonomikuri politikis Sesaxeb Sexedulebebis Camoyalibebas da pozitiuri makroekonomikuri Teoriis ZiriTadi kanonzomierebebze dayrdnobiT normatiuli ekonomikuri Teoriis Camoyalibebis process retrospeqtiuli kuTxiT.

statiis meore nawilSi mTavari YyuRadReba swored normatiuli makroekonomikur politikis kvlavasa da analizs daeTmoba. ganvixilavT sxvadasxva makroekonomikuri koncefciebisa da Sesabamisi modelebis funqcionirebis kanonzomierebebs, rogorc sakuTriv makroekonomikuri politikis ganxorcielebis kuTxiT ise Tavad am politikis formirebis problemebiT. kerZod SevexebiT Tu ra arxebiT da ra gavlenas axdens monetaruli da fiskaluri politika makroekonomikur stabilurobaze. mimovixilavZT sxvadasxva faqtorebs, romelic erTi mxriv makroekonomikuri politikis saSualebiT ekonomikur koniunqturaze zegavlenas axsiaTebs meore mxriv iseT faqtorebs, romelic Tavad makroekonomikuri politikis gansazRvraze axdens gavlenas.

mesame nawilis kvlevis sagani iqneba saqarTveloSi 2002-2008 wlebSi ganxorcielebuli, rogorc monetaruli ise fiskaluri politika. agreTve SevexebiT am periodSi mimdinare politikuri procesebis, rogorc ekonomikuri politikis formirebis faqtoris sakiTxs. kvlevis mizania vaCvenoT saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri garemis Taviseburebebi, politikis formirebis problemebi da misi gavlena ekonomikur koniunqturaze.

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I. ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba

1.1 saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis arsi

ekonomikuri mecnierebis kvlevis mniSvnelovan sferos saxelmwifos ekonomikuri saqmianoba warmoadgens. Tavad termini saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politika, gansxvavebulad aRiqmeba da misi Sinaarsi ekonomistebs Soris davis sagania, romlis irgvlivac erTiandeba sxvadasxva koncefciebi, romlebic sakuTari msoflmxedvelobis argumentad aqceven politikas.

zogadad termini saxelmwifos nacvlad ucxour literaturaSi gamoiyeneba termini mTavroba anda xelisufleba. Tumca mimaCnia, rom termini saxelmwifo, moxseniebuli mTavrobisa da xelisuflebasTan SedarebiT, metad misaRebia da Tanamedrove ganviTarebis etapze zustad gamoxatavs problemis arss. termini saxelmwifo gamoxatavs sazogadoebas, raRac korporaciuli gagebiT, Sedegad is warmoadgens iuridiul pirs, romelsac gaaCnia ufleba-movaleobebi, romelsac SeuZlia dakavdes nebismieri saxis saqmianobiT iseve rogorc, nebismier sxva fizikur Tu iuridiul subieqts. saxelmwifo sxva korporaciebisagan imiT gansxvavdeba, rom is erTis mxriv Tavad axdens sxva korporaciebis sanqcirebas, magram Tavad sanqcias (legitimacias) iRebs msgavsi bunebis sxva warmonaqmnebisagan (sazogadoebisagan); meores mxriv, saxelmwifo iRebs garkveul funqciebs, romelic rogorc suverenulma saxelmwifom mxolod man unda itvirtos; da mesame, is axorcielebs am funqciebs garkveul teritoriaze, sadac misi uflebebi eqskluziuri da aRiarebulia.

saxelmwifos amdagvari gaazreba (rogorc korporaciisa da sazogadoebis) SedarebiT axalia da problemis Tanamedrove gaazrebas warmoadgens. kerZod mTeli kacobriobis istoriis udides manZilze Cven saqme gvaqvs Tavisi bunebiT ara saxelmwifoebTan aramed, swored, rom mTavrobebTan da xelisuflebebTan, romlebic Zaladobriv institutebs warmoadgenen.

devid bouzi 1 mkacrad mijnavs “saxelmwifosa” da “mTavrobas”. “mTavroba” misi mosazrebiT es swored is Tanxmobis Sedegad Seqmnili organizaciaa, romelsac Cven virCevT da romlis daxmarebiTac qveyanaSi Cven vwyvtT davebs, vicavT Cvens uflebebsa da vikmayofilebT garkveul moTxovnilebebs. xolo saxelmwifo – es aris Zaladobrivi organizacia, romelic garkveuli geografiuli sazRvrebis farglebSi monopoliuri uflebiT, fizikur Zalaze dayrdnobiT axdens sakuTari samarTlis ganxorcielebas.

miuxedavad imisa, rom mecnierebi am termins sxmadasxvagvarad

iazreben mimaCnia, rom gadaulaxav winaaRmdegobas adgili ara aqvs amotom Semdgomi analizisaTvis vixelmZRvaneloT misi ufro

1 ix. Боуз Д. Либертарианство. История. Принципы. Политика. Ч.,2004. c. 212.

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abstraqtuli, saxelmwifos korporaculi, ganmartebiT. axla ganvixiloT saxelmwifos TiToeuli zemoT xsenebuli maxasiaTebeli:

pirveli, saxelmwifo, rogorc korporacia SeiZleba ganxilul iqnas sul mcire ori konceptualurad gansxvavebuli gadmosaxedidan: saxelmcifos organuli da meqanikuri Teoriebis kuTxiT. pirveli mis arsebobas, rogorc aucilebels da bunebrivs ise ganixilavs, am koncefciis momxreni sazogadoebriv interess uqvemdebareben individis interesebs, xolo saxelmwifom, romelic individebze maRla dgas, swored sazogadoebis interesebi unda daicvas. am midgomis ukiduresi gamovlinebebia komunizmi da faSizmi. meore ufro centristuli politikuri filosofiis matarebelia da saxelmwifos warmoqmnas individebis interesebs uqvemdebarebs. adam smiti swored am konteqstSi amtkicebs, rom saxelmwifom unda daicvas „‟Tavis sazogadoeba danaSaulisa da sxva, damoukidebeli sazogadoebis agresiisagan”, “xolo TiToeuli wevri sxvaTa Cagvrisa da usamarTlobisagan”. es ukanaskneli Teoria gulisxmobs, rom sazogadbebas ZaluZs organizeba da TanamSromloba safrTxeebis, riskebisa da sakuTari keTildReobis amaRlebis mizniT, rasac kacobriobis istoriac adasturebs. Tumca arsebobs ufro radikaluri mosazrebebi, magaliTad amasTan dakavSirebiT sociologi franc opengeimeris TqmiT adamianis mier sakuTari moTxovnilebebis dakmayofilebis ori xerxi arsebobs “ Sroma da Zarcva, adamianis sakuTari Sroma da am Sromis ZaliT miTviseba”. is Sromasa da Tavisufal gacvlas uwodebs simdidris miRebis “ekonomikur saSualebas”, xolo sxvisi Sromis miTvisebas – “politikur saSualebas”.

meore - saxelmwifos atributuli funqciebi yvelaze did azrTa sxvadasxvaobas iwvevs sazogadoebis sxvadasxva jgufebs Soris, romelTaganac umravlesobam Tanamedrove etapze Teoriuli, konceptualuri da logikurad dasabuTebuli saxe SeiZina. magaliTad libertarianelebi miiCneven, rom bazarze informaciuli teqnologiebis ganviiTarebis kvalad adamianebi sul ufro xSirad akiTxaven sxvadasxva problemebis gadaWrisaTvis kerZo seqtors, ganaTlebis miRebidan dawyebuli katastrofebisagan dazRveviT damTavrebuli. ase, rom is momsaxureba, romelic odesRac iTvleboda aucileblad saxelmwifos prerogativad TandaTan tovebs mis rigebs. Tavisufal sazogadoebaSi saxelmwifoca da mTavrobac asrulebs umniSvnelovanes rols. Manu man unda daicvas Cveni uflebebi, xeli Seuwyos iseTi sazogadoebis formirebas, sadac adamianebi imuSaveben da icxovreben yovelgvari Zaladobisa da SiSis gareSe da ara imisaTvis, rom sazogadoeba gaxadon metad zneobrivi an uzrunvelyon Tanabari cxovrebis pirobebi anda gaataron ekonomikuri zrdis mastimulirebeli poliktika. A Tumca saxelmwifo institutis gamoyenebasTan dakavSirebiT arsebobs sxva mosazrebebic. magaliTad, ganasxvaveben memarcxene da memarjvene politikur ideologias, romelTac Sesabamisad Seesabameba ekonomikaSi Carevis mixedviT did da patara saxelmwifoebis momxreebi. ufro konkretulad memarcxene orientacias warmoadgenen liberalebi, xolo memarjvenes – ki

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konservatorebi. liberalizmis ukidures formas komunizmi warmoadgens xolo konservatizmis - faSizmi (nax.1)2.

komunizmi liberalizmi konservatorizmi faSizmi

nax.1 krauxmanis sqema

liberalebi rogorc wesi gamodian saxelmwifos ekonomikur cxovrebaSi Carevis sasargeblod, Semdegi kompromisiT – gadasaxadebis zrda da ekonomikuri koniunqturisa da ganviTarebis regulireba nacvlad – saxelmwifos Carevis Semcirebisa pirad gadawyvetilebis miRebaSi da sityvis TavisuflebaSi. konservatorebi ki rogorc wesi gamodian ekonomikaSi saxelmwifos Carevis SezRudvisa da piradi cxorebis maregulirebeli kanonebis gaZlierebis sasargeblod. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom Camoyalibebuli sqema sulac ar asaxavs srulad politikuri ideologiis farTo speqtrs, Tumca warmodgenas gviqmnis ZiriTad ideologiebze. am speqtridan libertarianelebi an rogorc maT dasavleT evropaSi uwodeben klasikuri liberalebi, centristul adgils ikaveben, romlebic SeiZleba davaxasiaTod, rogorc liberalebi socialur sakiTxebSi da konservatorebi ekonomikur sakiTxebSi. miuxedavad imisa, rom saxelmwifos mxridan ekonomikis regulirebaSi monawileobis xarisxi gansxvavebulia, is mainc gamodis ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebeli da ganmaxorcielebeli. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom Tanamedrove msoflioSi sul ufro da ufro izrdeba saxelmwifos wili ekonomikaSi.

mesame, maxasiaTebels, uflebis eqskluziurobas garkevul teritoriaze vfiqrob ganxilva ar sWirdeba, Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom Tanamedrove globalur msoflioSi misi gavlena sul ufro da ufro mcirdeba da zogierT aspeqtSi kargavs esqskluziurobasa da aRiarebulobas. f. f. xaiekis 3 azriT eqskluziurobis cneba mxolod saxelmwifos mxridan Tavis kompetenciebis gadametebaze miuTiTebs.

axla SevexoT ekonomikuri politikis sakiTxs. ekonomikuri politika Tanamedrove ekonomikuri Teoriis Tanaxmad gamoxatavs qveynis ekonomikis mimarT saxelmwifos qcevas. ekonomikuri politikis xasiaTi varirebs saxelmwifos mxridan ekonomikaSi absoluturi Caurevlobidan, ekonomikis saxelmwifos mier marTvis umkacres formebamde, es ukanaskneli magaliTad damaxasiaTebelia komunisturi orientaciis mqone ekonomikisaTvis. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom nebismieri politika dasaxuli amocanebis gadaWris strategiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erTobliobas gulisxmobs romelic, rogorc es wina analizma aCvena garkveuli obieqturi Tu subieqturi kanonzomierebaTa gamo seriozuli polemikis sagania.

2 ix. Боуз Д. Либертарианство. История. Принципы. Политика. Ч.,2004. c. 23.

3 ix. Хайек Ф. А. Частные деньги. Русский перевод: Институт Национальной Модели Экономики, 1996. c. 17.

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maSasadame axla ukve SegviZia ganvmartoT saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politika, rogorc sazogadoebis arCevani da Tanxmoba, ekonomikuri miznebis miRwevis stradtegiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erToblioba, romelzec gavlenas axdens, rogorc calkeul individebis ise sazogadoebis sxvadasxva jgufebis interesebi.

saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politika farTo cnebaa da sxvadasxva politikis farTo speqtrs moicavs. amitom SemdgomSi Sevexebi mxolod makroekonomikur politikasa da zogadad saxelmwifo politikis formirebis problemebs.

Tavad makroekonomikur politikas ZiriTadad ganmartaven, rogorc makroekonomikuri miznebis miRwevis strategiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erTobliobas, romlis ZiriTadi miznebia: ekonomikuri zrda, sruli dasaqmeba, ekonomikuri efeqturoba, fasebis stabilizacia, ekonomikuri Tavisufleba, Semosavlebis samarTliani ganawileba, ekonomikuri uzrunvelyofa da savaWro balansi.

saxelmwifos makroekonomikur funqciebSi umTavresi adgili e.w. bazris fiaskos Tavidan acilebas ukavSirdeba, Tumca Tanamedrove ekonomikuri politikis pirobebSi xSirad saxelmwifos makroekonomikur politikas xelisuflebis fiaskomde mivyavarT. xelisuflebis fiasko iseTi mdgomareobaa, roca saxelmwifo uZluria uzrunvelyos sazogadoebrivi resursebis efeqturi ganawileba da moxmareba.

xelisuflebis fiaskos gamomwvevi mizezebi farTo speqtriT xasiaTdeba, kerZod es SeiZleba iyos: gadawyvetilebis miRebisaTvis aucilebeli informaciis deficiti, rac Tavis mxriv gamowveulia saimedo statistikuri informaciis deficitiTa da Zlieri biurokratiuli aparatisa da kerZo interesTa jgufebis zemoqmedebiT; politikuri procesebis arasrulfasovnebiT; biurokratiuli aparatis “politikiT”; saxelmwifos uunarobiT gansWvritos da gaakontrolos mis mier miRebuli gadawyvetilebebis uaxloesi da Soreuli Sedegebi. saqme imaSia, rom ekonomikuri agentebi xSirad ise ar reagireben saxelmwifo politikaze, rogorc xelisufleba varaudobs. maTi qceva cvlis xelisuflebis qmedebebis mizansa da Sinaarss da maSasadame Sedegebs. amitom xelisuflebis politika xSirad meryevi da cvalebadia. igi meryeobs droSi xelisuflebis mxridan ekonomikis eqspansiasa da ukandaxevas Soris.

1.2. Tanamedrove saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis formireba

zogadad saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politika saxelmwifoTa aRmocenebisa da ganviTarebis kvalobaze yalibdeboda, romelic mudmivad ganicdida transformacias. kerZod “saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis” pirveli niSnebi Zveli msofliosa da adrefeodalur xanaSic gvxvdeba. miuxedavad imisa rom am epoqisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli “ekonomikuri politika” ar SeiZleba, ara marto Tanamedrove gagebiT aramed zogadad iwodos saxelmwifo ekonomikur politikad, mainc unda aRiniSnos, rom igi xasiaTdeboda, raRac Canasaxovani ekonomikuri politikisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli niSnebiT, romelic konkretul

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epoqaSi sazogadoebis politikuri, istoriuli Tu kulturuli ganviTarebis Sedegs warmoadgenda.

amave dros am epoqaSi mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri Sexedulebebi yalibdeboda, magaliTad qsenofonte Tavis naSromSi “atikis Semosavlebi” exeba gacvlis ganviTarebisaTvis fulis maragebis aucileblobis sakiTxs. xolo platoni da aristotele gamodian meurneobis marTvaSi saxelmwifos monawileobis sasargeblod, ayalibeben ra aristokratiuli komunizmis ideas.

miuxedavad imisa rom ekonomikuri azri saukuneebis manZilze mniSvnelovan transformacias ganicdida, pirveli saxelmwifo ekonomikur politikasTan dakavSirebuli fundamenturi moZRvreba - merkantilizmi mxolod XVI-XVII saukuneebSi Camoyalibda. (a.monkretieni, J.bodeni, J.b.kolberi, p.l.buagilbergi, j.lou, a.r.jiusti da sxvebi.) merkantilistebi xelisuflebas sagareo vaWrobaSi aqtiur savaWro balansze orientacias urCevdnen, rac qveyanaSi fulis(simdidris) Semodinebis safuZveli unda gamxdariyo. amisaTvis xelisufleba krZalavda qveynidan fulis gatanas, mkacrad akontrolebda ucxoeli vaWrebis saqmianobas, zRudavda ucxouri saqonlis Semozidvas, awesebda maRal savaWro gadasaxadebs da a.S. Tu SevajamebT SegviZlia merkantilistebi davaxasiaTod, rogorc aqtiuri saxelmwifo politikisa da proteqcionistuli politikis momxreebi.

mogvianebiT inglissa da safrangeTSi Camoyalibda ori mimdinareoba klasikuri(u.peti, a.smiTi, d.rikardo, t.r.malTusi, J.s.moli da sxvebi) da fiziokratuli mimdinareoba (f.kene, a. tiurgo, v. marabo, v. diupon de nemuri, g. letroni da sxvebi), romlebic daupirispirdnen merkantilistur ekonomikur politikas da saxelmwifos ekonomikaSi Carevis winaarmdeg gamovidnen. isini aqcents akeTebdnen swored saxelmwifos Carevisagan Tavisufal bazarze Tavisufal mewarmeobis ganviTarebaze. amasTan calke unda gamoiyos a.smiTisa da d.rikardos Sesabamisad absoluturi da fardobiTi upiratesobis Teoriebi, romlebic swored Tavisufali vaWrobis obieqtur kanonzomierebebs xsnida.

saxelmwifo ekonomikuri pilitikis Sesaxeb ekonomikuri azris ganviTarebas ZiriTadad fragmentuli xasiaTi hqonda. MmniSvnelovani iyo devid iumis naSromi, romelic fulis masas, savaWro balanssa da fasebis dones Soris kavSirs swavlobda. rasac am mimarTulebiT irving fiSeris fulis raodenobrivi Teoria mohyva. fuli irving fiSeris TeoriaSi warmodgenilia, rogorc gadaxdisa da mimoqcevis saSualeba. miuxedavad imisa, rom misi mTavari wanamZRvari Tavisufali bazari da saxelmwifos am sferoSi Carevis Sezrudvaa, is exeba fulis masis regulirebis aucileblobisa da fulad-sakredito instrumentebis formirebis sakiTxs. am mimarTulebiT sainteresoa k. viqselis mikroekonomikuri midgoma, romelic fulis masasa da saprocento ganakveTs Soris kavSirs swavlobs. viqseli meqanizmis funqcionirebas Semdegi logikiT gansazRvravs, rom, roca e.w. bunebrivi saprocento ganakveTi(romelic kapitalis zRvruli produqtis analogia) sabanko procentze metia, izrdeba sawarmoebis mxridan fulze moTxovna, rasac mosdevs bankebis mier fulis Seqmnis procesi, romelic izRudeba mosaxleobis mxridan naRdi fulis maragebze moTxovnis sididiT, amas ki Tan erTvis arasakmarisi

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danazogebi, rac bankebs aiZulebs aswios sabanko saprocento ganakveTebi. rac ufro uaxlovdeba saprocento ganakveTi bunebriv ganakveTebs miT mcirdeba sainvesticio moTxovna fulze, roca investiciebi ufro mcire xdeba vidre danazogebi, iwyeba fulis masis Semcireba, rasac fasebis Semcireba da krizisi mohyveba. Sedegad bankebis saprocento ganakveTebi Semcirdeba. es midgoma fulis masis saprocento ganakveTze damokidebulebas asabuTebs.

am mimarTulebiT a. marSalma Seiswavla naRdi fulis roli da masze moTxovnis Sinaarsi - misi Teoriis daskvna gaxldaT is rom adamianebs mier naRdi filis maragebze moTxovnis mniSvnelovani elementia sifrTxilisa da spekulaciuri motivebi.

ekonomikur ciklebTan dakavSirebiT r.haurti da k.g.kaseli aviTareben azrs imis Taobaze, rom ekonomikuri krizisebi mniSvnelovan wilad swored oqros standartma ganapiroba, radgan oqros standartis pirobebSi fuls ara aqvs saSualeba adaptirdes garigebebze moTxovnebis Sesabamisad, misi stiqiurobisa da arakanonzomierebis gamo.

amis paraelurad viTardeboda marJinalisturi, neoklasikuri da liberaluri Sexedulebebi, romelic ganviTarebis am etapze mikroekonomikur xasiaTs atarebda. amaTgan calke unda gamovyoT radilkaluri liberaluri mimarTuleba, romelic saxelmwifos winaaRmdeg ilaSqrebs. magaliTad tomas peini saxelmwifosTan dakavSirebiT Semdeg azrs aviTarebs “sazogadoeba iqmneba Cveni moTxovnilebebis gamo, xolo mTavroba Cveni mankierebis gamo,…sazogadoeba nebismier SemTxvevaSi keTildReobaa, xoloo mTavroba ukeTes SemTxvevaSi aucilebeli boroteba, xolo uares SemTxvvvaSi – autaneli boroteba”. frederik bastia ki Tavis eseSi “kanoni” gamodis e.w. “dakanonebuli Zarcvis” winaaRmdeg, ris mixedviTac mTavroba kanonis ZaliT, romelsac is Tavad iRebs iTvisebs imas, rac mas ar uwarmoebia. liberaluri (jon loki, jon stuart mili, gerbert spenseri, ludvig fon mizesi da sxvebi) filosofia ebrZvis xelisuflebis mxridan arasaxelmwifoebriv da arasazogadoebriv gamovlinebebs, romelic scildeba samoqalaqo sazogadoebis moTxovnebs da maSasadame “saxelmwifos kompetenciebs”.

ekonomikur azrs, romelic XX-s-is 30-ian wlebamde viTardeboda, naklebad gaaCnda Tanamedrove ekonomikuri politikisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli Taviseburebebi. Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom ekonomikuri politikis TvalsazrisiT SedarebiT ukeT iyo Seswavlili sagareo savaWro politika.

Tanamedrove saxiT ekonomikuri politikis formireba swored XX-s-is 30-ian wlebSi daiwyo. 1929-1932 wlebis ekonomikuri krizisis Semdgom sazogadoeba dadga ekonomikuri meqanizmis stiqiuri gamovlinebebis safrTxis winaSe, ramac dRis wesrigSi daayena maTi bunebis Seswavlisa da daZlevis aucilebloba. viqselis Teoriis gavleniT 1936 wels jon meinard keinzma gamosca naSromi ”dasaqmebis, procentisa da fulis zogadi Teoria”. keinzis mixedviT investiciebi warmoadgendnen ekonomikuri ryevebis ZiriTad ganmapirobebel faqtors. keinzi xazs usvams, rom gadawyvetilebebi investiciebis Sesaxeb damokidebulia mis mosalodnel mogebis sidideze, Tumca es

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molodinebi ara mdgradia da investiciur gadawyvetilebebs gansazRvravs momavlisadmi optimisturi Tu pesimisturi ganwyoba.

antikrizisuli politikis formirebis aucileblobam aSS-Si didi gamoZaxili hpova. msoflioSi gabatonda socialuri-reformizmi da maSasadame centraluri adgili daiWira saxelmwifo regulirebis koncefciam. amerikelma e. hansenma gamoikvlia ekonomikis cikluri ryevebis meqanizmi da inglisel kon hiqsTan erTad Seqmna keinzianuri ciklis Teoria, romelic SemdgomSi kidev ufro ganaviTara monetaristuli skolis upiratesad keinzianuri mimarTulebis warmomadgenelma loid meclerma. man Tavis TeoriaSi aCvena, rom mizezi investiciebSi maragebis cvlileba SeiZleba yofiliyo. misi azriT, garkveuli periodis manZilze mTeli Semosavali ar ixarjeba produqciis sawarmoeblad da izogeba, garkveuli odenobis saqoneli ar tovebs mwarmoeblis sawyobebs, rac warmoebis masStabebis Semcirebas, umuSevrobis zrdas, fasebis dacemas, investiciebze moTxovnilebisa da saprocento ganakveTis Semcirebas iwvevs, anu ekonomika ganicdis dacemas, amitom meclerma investiciebze aqcentirebuli erToblivi moTxovnis zrdaze gaamaxvila yuradReba.

Tumca manamde “didi depresiis” dros ruzveltma ufro radikaluri ekonomikuri politikis kursi airCia. man, maSin, Seqmna mrewvelobis aRdgenis erovnuli administracia, romelic gansazRvravda mTavar wesebsa da fasebs ekonomikis ZiriTad dargebSi.

aseTi moqmedeba ki ewinaaRmdegebioda keinzis Teorias, romelic gansazRvravda, rom sruli dasaqmebis pirobebSi konkurentuli fasebisa da Semosavlebis ganawilebis stiqiuri sabazro meqanizmi aris saukeTeso saSualeba resursebis efeqturad gamoyenebisaTvis. saxelmwifo regulireba, romelic mowodebulia gazardos saerTo dasaqmebis done, unda operirebdes iseTi instrumentebiT, romlebic zemoqmedeben ekonomikis makro proporciebis cvlilebaze da ar arRveven bazris gamanawilebel funqcias. sxva gvarad rom vTqvaT saxelmwifo regulirebis zrda kargia imdenad, ramdenadac is aZlierebs sabazro meqanizms da ar cvlis da arRvevs mas.

keinzis ekonomikuri filosofia sulac ar ewinaaRmdegeboda individualisms, rogorc es ruzveltis “axali kursis” dasawyisSi iyo, romelic ufro radikaluri social-reformizmis doqtrinas emyareboda da romelic ekonomikaSi nawilobriv nacionalizacias da zogierTi dargis pirdapir gegmur regulirebas gulisxmobda. Tumca mas Semdeg, rac, aSS-s umaRlesma sasamarTlom “korporaciuli dagegmva“ arakonstituciurad gamoacxada ruzveltis “axali kursi” keinzianur CarCoebSi moeqca.

rogorc ukve aRiniSna, hansenma da misma mimdevrebma Camoayalibes ciklis Teoria, ris safuZvelzec SeimuSaves anticikluri regulirebis sabiujeto da sakredito meaqanizmi, romelsac unda gaeneitralebina ekonomikaSi konounqturuli cvlilebebis “damangreveli” Sedegebi. meqanizmi gulisxmobda aRmavlobis periodSi biujetis Semosavlebis zrdas, romelic progresuli gadasaxadebis meSveobiT Semosavlebis zrdis xarjze finansdeboda, komerciuli bankebisaTvis savaldebulo sarezervo normis zrdas da saxelmwido xarjebis Semcirebas. amis mizani iyo gadaxdisunariani miTxovnis SezRudva da ekonomikis “gadaxurebisagan” dacva. dacemis fazaSi

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mTavrobas SeeZlo Seemcirebina sagadasaxado Semosavlebi, gaezarda xarjebi, maT Soris saxelmwifo valis aRebiT anu fulis emisiiTac, gaeZlierebina sabanko saprocento ganakveTis Semcirebaze zemoqmedeba, rac xels SeuSlida saqmiani aqtivobisa da erToblivi moTxovnis Semcirebas. amasTan dakavSirebiT samuelsonis azriT progresul sagadasaxado sistemas SeeZlo e.w. “CaSenebuli stabilizatoris” roli avtomaturadac eTamaSa.

50-ian wlebSi ganviTarebul industiul qveynebSi adgili hqonda SedarebiT swraf da mdgrad ekonomikur zrdas. Tumca Zneli saTqmelia ramdenad iyo es keinzianuri politikis damsaxureba. magram Sedegad anticikluri regulirebis problema Caanacvla grZelvadiani zrdis problemam da misi faqtorebis analizma. keinzi Tvlida rom industriulad ganviTarebul ”momwifebul” ekonomikaSi garduvali iqnebida investiciebis zRvruli sargeblianobis Semcireba. Amis sapirispirod roi xadorma da evsei domarma SeimuSaves ekonomikuri zrdis modeli. maTi azriT garda imisa rom investiciebi Semosavlis warmoqmnis faqtors warmoadgens is kapitalaRWurvis zrdasac iwvevs. Sedegad isini askvnian, rom mdgradi ganviTarebis miRwevisaTvis sruli dasaqmebis pirobebSi aucilebelia, Semosavlebis da maSasadame moTxovnis zrda Seesabamebodes sawarmos simZlavrebis zrdas. amisaTvis sawarmoo simZlavreebis zrdam ar unda gadaaWarbos moTxovnis zrdas risTvisac, saWiroa rom, investiciebi gaizardos ufro swrafad vidre bunebrivad izrdeba danazogebi. isini ki gamosavals investiciebis, magaliTad, saprocemnto ganakvetis SemcirebiT, waxalisebis politikaSi xedaven. amasTan kapitalaRWurvis zrda xels uwyobs sruli dasaqmebis miRwevas. Tu domarma da xadorma yuradReba kapitalaRWurvis maCvenebelze gadaitanes. n. kaldorma yuradreba Sromis mwarmoeblurobas dauTmo. amave periodSi soloum neoklasikuri sawarmoo funqciis gamoyenebiT aCvena, rom arc Sromis da arc kapitalis danaxarjebis zrda ar iyo grZelvadiani mdgradi ekonomikuri zrdis ganmapirobebeli faqtori. da aCvena rom es roli upiratesad teqnologiur progress ekuTvnoda.

f. peiSma gaakritika 50-60–ian wlebSi gatarebuli sruli dasaqmebis politika. misi azriT, rodesac saxelmwifo cdilobs SeinarCunos maRali erToblivi moTxovna amiT is uzrunvelyofs erToblivi moTxovnis gadametebas erTobliv miwodebasTan SedarebiT, rac saSualebas aZlevs dabalefeqtur sawarmoebs gayidon saqoneli maRal fasSi es ki zewolas iwvevs resursebze dabalefeqturi sawarmoebis mxridan, rac aZlierebs inflaciur tendenciebsa da amcirebs adgilobrivi produqciis safaso konkurentunarianoibas. es Tavis mxriv amcirebs eqsports importTan mimarTebaSi da xels uwyobs savaWro balansis krizisis provocirebas. misi azriT am erToblivi moTxovnis mxardamWer politikas mxolod mastabilizirebeli da ara ekonomikuri zrdis mastimulirebeli xasiaTi hqonda.

neokembrijelebi ki amtkicebdnen, rom savaWro balansis krizis pirdapir ganapirobebs saxelmwifo biujetis deficits. (m. stuarti, j. robinsoni). neokembrijelebis azriT ekonomikuri politikis samizned sagadamxdelo balansi unda iqces, romlis winaaRmdegac saxelmwigom unda gamoiyenos importze globaluri kontrolis meqanizmi,

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tarifebisa da qveynis SigniT erToblivi moTxovnis stimulirebis meSveobiT.

miuxedavad aqtiuri saxelmwifo politikisa keinzianuri politika ar aris oroentirebuli gadaWras mwvave socialuri problemebi, ramac gamoiwvia 60-ian wlebSi institucionalizmis aRorZZineba da radikalizmis formireba.

j.k.gelbreiTi Tavisi ZalTa gamawonasworebeli Teoriis gamoyenebiT amtkicebs, rom saxelmwofom korporaciis sawarmoo Zalauflebas unda daupirispiros, mosaxleobis socialur interesibs daqvemdebarebuli saxelmwifo politika. kenet buldingis azriT ki siRaribis, diskriminaciis, mmarTvelobis, stimulebis da sxva problemebi es ara paTologiuri gadaxraa sistemis normaluri mdgomareobidan aramed, kapitalizmis normaluri funqcionirebis Sedegi. maTi azriT mTavari socialur ekonomikuri problemebi mxolod radikaluri gardaqmnebisa da institutebis SecvliT SeiZleba gadaiWras. isini socialuri problemebis gadaWras swored saxelmwifos akisreben.

moyvanili Teoriebis sapirispirod neokonservatiuli mimdinareobebi upirispirdebian keinzianur – liberalur Teorias. erTerTi mTavari skola am mimdinareobebSi aris Cikagos monetaristuli skola (j.laineri g.saimonsi l.nitri j.stigleri m.fridmeni da sxvebi). maTi warmomadgenlebi aqtiurad uaryofdnen Teziss, romlis mixedviTac stiqiur bazaars ar ZaluZs makroekonomikur maCvenebelTa proporciebis daregulireba. aseTive konkretulobiT pasuxobdnen institucionalistebsac romlebic, gamodian sazogadoebrivi moTxovnebis centralizebisa da regulirebis sasargeblod. Cikagos skolis damaarsebelis frenk naitis azriT ekonomika wminda mecnierebaa, romlis kanonebic gamomdinareobs WeSmarirebaTa logikuri analizis Sedegad, romlebic intuiciurad ganisazRvreba, radganac ekonomika bunebrivi kanonzomierebebiT xasiaTdeba.

m. fridmenis mTavari idea, romelic keinzis sruli antipodia, ase JRers “Cemi Sexeduleba saxelmwifos xarjebze SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnas Semdegi ambis saxiT. Tu Tqven xarjavT Tqvens sakuTar fuls sakuTar Tavze, Tqven gainteresebT, ramdeni fuli ixarjeba da swored, rogor ixarjeba. Tu Tqven sakuTar fuls xarjavT sxva adamianze, Tqven adrindeliviT savsebiT gainteresebT, ramden fuls xarjavT, Tumca naklebad gainteresebT rogor ixarjeba. Tu Tqven xarjavT sxvis fuls sakuTar Tavze, Tqven naklebad gainteresebT, Tu ramdeni fuli ixarjeba, magram Tqven Sewuxebuli xarT imiT, Tu rogor ixarjeba. Tu Tqven sxvis fuls xarjavT sxva adamianebze, maSin Tqven arc is gainteresebT ramdeni fuli ixarjeba, ar cis, Tu rogor ixarjeba.” fridmeni momxre iyo ekonomikaSi naklebi saxelmwifosi. is warmoadgenda “tetCerizmis” da “reigonomikis” erTerT STamagonebels.

fridmeni institucionaluri gamowvevis sapasuxod acxadebs, rom mxolod maqsimalur Tavisuflebas ZaluZs moutanos sazogadoebas moTxovnilebaTa maqsimaluri dakmayofileba. fridmeni ugulvebelyofs ra ekonomikuri subieqtebis Tanabar sastarto SesaZleblobebs, uTanasworobas simdidresa da SemosavlebSi xsnis, ekonomikuri riskis mimarT calkeuli individebisa da klasebs Soris

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gansxvavebuli fsiqologiuri midrekilebebiT, romelic pirdapir kavSirSia Tavisufal arCevanTan. social reformistebis miswrafeba SezRudos riski da Tavisufali arCevani igi pasuxobs, rom saxelmwifos mxridan msgavsi motiviT Semosavlebis gadanawileba iwvevs keTildReobis saerTo donis Semcirebas.

institucionalur argumentacias, romelic mimarTulia socialuri programebis ganxorcielebisaken, siRaribisa da siratakis daZlevisaken neokonservatorebi uaryofen sapirispiro efeqtis argumentze dayrdnobiT, romlis mixedviTac msgavsi programebi siRaribis daZlevis nacvlad mis zrdas uwyobs xels, radgan daxmarebaze orientirebuli sazogadoebis nawili amcirebs Zalisxmevas, raTa Tavad gamoimuSavos Semosavali.

aseTive warmatebiT gaakritika fridmenma keinzis Teoriis mTavari Tezisebi: Semosavlis zrdasTan erTad moxmarebisadmi zrvruli midrekilebis Semcirebisa da multiplikatiris Teoriis Taobaze.

keinzis daskvna imis Taobaze, rom Semosavlis zrdasTan erTad moxmareba mcirdeba, xolo danazogebi izrdeba, araerTxel gaxda sxvadasxva ekonomistebis gansjis sagani (s. kuzneci, r.goldsmani da sxvebi). Tumca misi verc uaryofa da verc dadastyreba ver mxerxda. swored am dros fridmenma wamoayena Teoria, romlis Tanaxmadac, garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi adamianis moxmareba mumivia da ar aris damokidebuli mimdinare Semosavlis cvlilebaze. droebiT fulis ukmarisobas individi kompensacias sesxis aRebiT axdens, xolo Semosavlis zrdas danazogebis zrdiT(es argumenti gamoyenebul iqna minimaluri xelfasis Sesaxeb kanonis winaaRmdeg, radganac aseTi minimumis SemoReba ki ar gazrdis, aramed Seamcirebs gadaxdisunarian moTxovnas.) moxmarebis stabilurobis Tezisidan gamomdinareobs, rom investiciebs ar ZaluZT multiplikatoruli gavlena moaxdinos moxmarebaze. es ki eWvqveS ayenebs krizisis keinziseul versiasa da saxelmwifos mier makroproporciebis, moTxovnis donis da samuSao aqtivobas regulirebis ideas.

warmoebis vardnas fridmani (iseve rogorc mTlianad monetaristebi) xsnis fulis mimoqcevis sferoSi mimdinare procesebiT. fulis faqtoris axleburi gaazreba fridmanis mxridan warmoadgens mis mTavar Rvawls. irving fiSeris Teoriaze dayrdnobiT fridmenma ganixila fuli, rogorc simdidris forma(anu rogorc sargeblis nairsaxeoba momxmareblisaTvis da kapitalis nairsaeiba mwarmoeblebisaTvis). aseTi midgoma, sadac fuli ganixilebioda, rogorc warmoebis instrumenti principulad gansxvavdeboda keinzis Teoriisagan. aman saSualeba misca fridmens ganeviTarebina fulze moTxovnis Teoria, ramac miiyvana daskvnamde, romlis mixedviTac es moTxovna mdgradia. miuxedavad imisa, rom masze mravali faqtori zemoqmedebs, mTlianobaSi SeiZleba CaiTvalos mudmivad da gamoSvebis moculobis zrdis toil maCveneblad. Tumca fulis miwodeba damokidebulia bankebisa da saxelmwifos politikaze, rac warmoadgens ekonomikis mTavar madestabilizirebel faqtors. misi ganmartebiT centraluri bankebi yovelTvis agvianebs reagirebas ekonomikaSi mimdinare koniunqturul cvlilebebze da Sedegad isini zrdian fulis masas bumis dros roca is unda Semcirdes da amcirebs dacemis fazaSi,

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roca unda gaizardos. aqedan gamomdinare ciklis Sesaxeb gansxvavebuli Sexeduleba gaaCnia fridmens, romlis mtkicebitac ekonomikis ciklurobis mizezi aqtiur monetarul da fiskalur politikaSia. misi mtkicebiT sabazro sistema TviTregulirebadi sistemaa da miiswrafvis bunebrivi mdgomareobisaken, aqtiuri saxelmwifo politika ki problemis nawilia da ara gadawyveta. m.Afridmenma, ana Svarcis TanaavtorobiT, daweril naSromSi “SeerTebuli Statebis montaruli istoria” aCvena, rom recesiebis umravlesoba “vaSingtonis” mier iyo provocirebuli anu konkretuli fuladi politikis cvlilebis Sedegad iyo warmoSobili. m. fridmenma aCvena, rom aSS-Si ciklebis umravlesobas win uswrebda ekonomikaSi fulis masis cvlileba. misi azriT didi depresia damTavrdeboda 1931 wels Tu federaluri sarezervo sistema Seamcirebda fulis masis zrdis temps. amitomac saxelmwifosa da erovnuli bankis maregulirebeli roli mizanmimarTuli unda iyos fulis masis ise gansazRvraze, rom miRweul iqnas grZeelvadiani ekonomikuri zrdisaTvi stabiluri garemo.

monetaristebi aseve did yuradRebas uTmoben fulis brunvis siCqaris gansazRvrisa da prognozirebis problemebs. maTi mtkicebiT fulis brunvadoba icvleba ekonomikuri ciklis fazebis mixedviT. krizisis dros brunvadoba neldeba. ase, magaliTad didi depresiis dros 1929-1933 ww. is Semcirda 40%-iT. brunvadobis Semcireba niSnavs, rom Seqmnili erovnuli Semosavlis ekonomikaSi ganTavsebis koeficienti mcirdeba, maSin roca V-s maRali mniSvneloba _ gamococxlebisa da aRmavlobis maCvenebelia. radganac fulis brunvis siCqare misi raodenobis, fulis masis, ukuproporciulia, maSin V-s gazrda amcirebs fulze moTxovnas (mis damatebiT emisiaze). es ukanaskneli ki ewinaaRmdegeba saxelmwifos interesebs, romelsac xSirad surs dafaros vali yvelaze saeWvo meTodiT – fulis emisiiT, rac amcirebs Ffulis brunvis siCqares. makroekonomikuri TvalTaxedviT brunvadobis Semcireba iwvwvs sasaqonlo maragebis zrdasa da mwarmoebluri kapitalis nawilis Semcirebas, Sekvecas.

stiqiuri cikluri ryevebi da umuSevroba Cikagos skoilis mier aRiqmeba, rogorc bunebrivi gamovlineba TviTregulirebadi bazrisa. xolo keinzis mier rogorc deformirebadi faqtori. Sedegad Cikagos skola gamodis saxelmwifos Caurevlobis sasargeblod da socoal-ekonomikur procesebSis winaaRmdeg. monetaristebi agreTve winaaRmdegni arian msxvili saxelmwifo Sesyidvebisa, magaliTad samxedro sferoSi.

monetarizmis monaTesave Teoria miwodebis Teoria xazs usvams ekonomikis mravalmxrivi stimulirebis aucileblobas ara mxolod gadasaxadebis Semcirebis gziT, aramed aseva resursebis ganmaviTarebeli saxelmwifoo programebis meSveobiT (ganaTleba, kadrebis momzadeba, bunebrivi resursebi da a,S,) monetaristebi da miwodebis Teoriis momxreebi gamodian ara saxelmwifo biujetis demontaJis moTxovniT, aramed saxelmwifos maregulirebeli meqanizmis winaaRmdeg mTlianad. 80-ian wlebSi aSkarad warmatebas miaRwies am Teoriebma rig ganviTarebul qveynebSi (aSS, didi britaneTi, italia da sxvebi) ris Sedegadac Semcirda gadasaxadebi, Semcirda socialuri programebi, gauqmda safaso kontroli da a.S.

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monetaristebi SeTanxmdnen, rom keinzianuri Teoria ver wyvetda grZelvadiani ekonomikuri zrdis amocanas. xolo, rac Seexeba moklevadiani periodis makroekonomikur regulirebas aq azri orad gaiyo erTni iziarebdnen (d. leidleri, a. uoltersi, b. gribfifi da sxvebi) m. fridmenTis adapturi molodinis Teorias, romelic uSvebda, rom makroekonomikur politikas SeuZlia moklevadian periodSi moaxdinos ekonomikaze mniSvnelivani gavlena realur warmoebasa da dasaqmebis doneze, meoreni racionaluri molodini Teoriis (p.monfordi, m.binstoki da sxvebi) momxreebi Tvlidnen, rom TeoriaSi saxelmwifos politikaze reagireba xdeba yvelanairi Seferxebis gareSe. aqedan orive midgoma askvnis rom monetaristebis mier SeTavazebul makroekonomikur Teorias gaaCnia, mxolod monetaruli stabilurobis SenarCunebis unari anu inflaciis aRkveTa (inflaciasTan brZola) da sxva SesaZlebloba mas ar gaaCnia, radganac iTvleba, rom saxelmwifos mxridan moTxovnis xelovnurad waxaliseba mxolod moklevadiani perspeqtiviT iwvevs warmoebis zrdas xolo saboloo jamSi inflaciis provocirebas axdens. swored am kuTxiT iqna gaanalizebuli monetaristebis midgoma savaWro balansis deficitTan dakavSirebiT, romelic aqtualuri iyo 1971 wlamde sanam arsebobda breton-vudis savaluto sistema, romlis pirobebSi ferxdeboda qveynebis ekonomikuri zrda da monetaruli sitemis arasrulyofili muSaoba xels uwyobda inflaciis waxalisebas.

inflaciis daZlevis erT-erT aucilebel da miRwevad Teorias warmoadgens restruqciuli fulad-sakredito politika, romelis mixedviTac centralurma bankma winaswar unda miiRos fulis masis gansazRvruli moculobaiT zrdis tempi da ar daelodos koniunqturul cvlilebebs. tradiciuli monetaristebis azriT, rogorebic arian, d.leidleri, a.uolsteri da sxvebi, inflaciis moTokvisaTvis fulis masis miwodebis tempis Senelebis politikis gamoyeneba unda iyos droSi gawelii, raTa Semcirdes danakargebis moculoba, romelsac deflacia iwvevs. racionaluri molodinis hipoTezis momxreebi, piriqiT miiCneven, rom es procesi maqsimalurad unda iyos droSi Seviwrovebuli, radgan agentebis racionaluri molodini ganapirobebes maTi mxridan myisier gadasvlas fasebisa da Semosavlebis axal doneze, Sedegad procesi yvalaze umtkivneuloa inflaciis moTokvisaTvis.

neoklasikuri mimarTulebis, monetaristuli midgomis SedarebiT ufro radikalur miggomas, keinzianelobasTan mimarTebaSi, warmoadgens miniapolisis skola (racionaluri molodinis Teoria). t.u.AsarJenti, n.Avalasi, r.e.Alukasi, r.Abarous mosazrebis mixedviT, mizezi ekonomikaSi cvladebis moulodneli cvlilebaa, rac gamowveulia ekonomikuri agentebis mier arasrulyofili informaciis flobiT. amitom lukasis romelic, racionaluri molodinis Teoriis warmomadgenelia gamodis stabiluri fulad-sakredito politikis dasacavad misi mtkicebiT calkeul bazrebze ekonomikuri subieqtebi ar floben sxvadasxva bazrebis Sesaxeb informacias da am informacias garkveuli lagiT iReben. am pirobebSi ki mwarmoeblebi aRmoCndebian individualur bazrebze fasebis zrdis interpretaciis problemis winaSe. radgan, roca sabazro fasi maT produqciaze aiwevs, maT ar ician fasebis es zrda iyo fardobiTi Tu sayovelTao. amitom isini am

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faqts nawilobriv afaseben, rogorc fasebis sayovelTao zrdad, nawilobriv, ki rogorc fasebis fardobiT zrdad. amitom Sedegad mwarmoeblebi zrdian warmoebis moculobas, xolo mogvianebiT, roca gairkveva, rom fasebis zrda sayovelTao iyo, aRmoCndeba, rom ganxorcielebuli kapitaluri danaxarjebis zRvruli sargeblianoba uaryofiTi yofila da ekonomikaSi krizisi daiwyeba. amave dros lukasi aRniSnavs, rom msgavsi efeqti mxolod fuladi politikis moulodnelma cvlilebam SeiZleba iqonios.

monetarizmis avstriuli skolis warmomadgenlebi da neoliberalebi f. fon xaieki, C. rouli, s. litlCaildi miiCneven, rom mcdeloba saxelmwifos mxridan moaxdinos ekonomikuri zrdis aqtivizireba unda moeqces mikroekonomikuri regulirebis CarCoebSi, romelic unda moicavdes iseT RonisZiebaTa nakrebs rogoricaa, ekonomikuri meqanizmis gawmenda sxvadasxva SezRudvebisagan, rogorc saxelmwifos mxridan, ise profkavSirebis da sxva subieqtebisagan. sxvagvarad saxelmwifom unda uzrunvelyos normaluri, uwyveti da SeuzRudavi stiqiuri bazris moqmedeba.

keinzieneli n. kaldoris azriTac fulad-sakredito politikis gamoyeneba miuRebelia ekonomikuri zrdis regulirebisaTvis. zrdis generator misi azriT unda iyos sabiujeto politika da mcuravi savaluto kursis sistemis pirobebSi am ukanasknelis varireba, romelic uzrunvelyofs eqsportis zrdas. m. perstoni (keinzianeli) aRiarebs fulis masis miwodebis tempebis winaswar gansazRvris aucileblobas.

fiskalur politikasTan dakavSirebiT axal klasikur Teoriis warmomadgenlebi keinzianuri moTxovnis stimulirebis Teoriis sapirispirod Semdeg azrs aviTareben. maTi mtkicebiT erTjeradi saxelmwifos xarjebis zrda, zrdis warmoebasa da dasaqmebas, Tumca amcirebs kerZo seqtoris moxmarebasa da investiciebs, radgan warmoeba izrdeba ara investiciebis rentabelobis xarjze, aramed saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdis xarjze, romelic aviwrovebs, rogorc kerZo investiciebs ise adamianTa Tavisufal arCevans. amitom saprocento ganakveTi izrdeba. roca saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda mudmivi xdeba, maSin gankargvadi Semosavali sul ufro mcirdeba. am SemTxvevaSi saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdas Tan axlavs samomxmareblo xarjebis Semcireba da ara danazogebis Semcireba, rogorc amas keinzianelebi amtkiceben.

makroekonomikuri politikis formirebaze garda fiskaluri da monetaruli instrumentebisa, romlebsac wminda ekonomikuri xasiaTi aqvT, bevri sxva faqtoric moqmedebs, romelTa gaTvaliswinebac praqtikulad aucilebelia. ris gamoc Camoyalibda Sexeduleba romlis mixedviTac demokratiis politikuri procesebi, ar floben e.w. “uxilavi xelisaTvis” damaxasiaTebel Taviseburebebs da aqedan gamomdinare ver uzrunvelyofen sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis optimalur odenobas. swored am naklovanebis gadalaxvas cdiloben gasuli saukunis 50-60-ian wlebSi formirebuli sazogadoebrivi arCevanis Teoriis momxreebi (j.biuqeneni, g.taloki, m.olsoni, d.miuleri, r.tolinsoni, u.neskereni da sxvebi). miuTiTeben ra saxelmwifos mier ekonomikis regulirebis araefeqturobis Sesaxeb, sazogadoebrivi arCevanis Teoriis momxreebs misi analizi finansuri da fulad-

15

sakredito sferodan gadaaqvT Tavad gadawyvetilebis miRebis procesze.

j.biuqenenis mtkicebiT imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom makroekonomikis politikis formirebaze gadawyvetilebas adamiani – subieqti Rebulobs, cxadia yvela gadawyvetilebis miReba ar iTvaliswinebs makroekonomikuri politikis miznebis instrumentebisa da saxelmwifos ekonomikuri funqciebis srulyofil analizs da xSir SemTxvevaSi miRebuli gadawyvetilebebi garkveulwilad subieqturia, anu ar jdeba im modelSi, rasac makroekonomikuri politikis Teoria sTavazobs saxelmwifos

Tavad saxelmwifo, sazogadoebrivi arCevanis Teoriis Tanaxmad, gansakuTrebuli saxis bazaria da politika gacvlis arena. amitomac moklevadian periodSi igi miiswrafis maqsimaluri saxelmwifosaken. Tavad politikur bazarze erTmaneTs upirispirdebian sxvadasxva interesTa jgufebi, romelTaganac yvelaze mZlavri biurokratiaa. is Tavisi ekonomikuri interesebidan gamomdinare saxelmwifos mier ekonomikis eqspansias ganapirobebs, axdens biznesis paralizebas da amcirebs Sromis mwarmoeblurobas. is mimarTulia Secvalos Tavisufali warmoeba saxelmwifo kontroliT; is araerTgvarovania: sxvadasxva biuroebs urTierTgamomricxavi miznebi aqvT. gavleniani politikuri partiebi da “zewolis jgufebi” mxars uWeren biznesis nacionalizacias. risi Sedegicaa mTeli ekonomikuri meqanizmis rRveva. biurokratiis zrda ki ganpirobebulia saxelmwifos mxridan erovnuli Semosavlis zedmeti wilis `miTvisebiT, romelic Warbia da aucileblad araefeqturad daixarjeba.

f.a. haiekis 4 azriT es gamowveulia TanamedrovebaSi demokratiis damaxinjebulad gagebasTan. vinaidan Tanamedrove pirobebSi, maT vinc parlamentSi sxvadsxva sakiTxebze iRebs gadawyvetilebebs, SeuZliaT gamoscen maTTvis misaRebi nebismieri kanoni. amitomac cxadia, rom isini kanonis gavlenas ar ganicdian. aman SeiZleba gamoiwvios arsebuli xelisuflebisa da interesTa jgufebis aliansSi brZola xelisuflebaSi xelaxla mosvlisaTvis, rac gamoiwvevs sazogadoebrivi interesis SezRudvasa da dovlaTis gaflangvas.

1.3. ekonomikuri politikis gamoyenebis Taviseburebebi

ekonomikuri mecmierebis ganviTarebis kvalad gaizarda saxelmwifos mier ama Tu im ekonomikuri politikis gamoyenebasTan dakavSirebiT interesi, ara mxolod mecnier-ekonomistebs Soris aramed mTels sazogadoebaSi, radgan ekonomikuri politikis Sesaxeb gadawyvetilebis miReba gavlenas axdens sazogadoebis yvela wevrze, Tumca ekonomikuri politikis ganxorcieleba xSir SemTxvevaSi sazogadoebas ayenebs problemis winaSe. kerZod saxelmwifo organoebi xSirad ise ar iqcevian, rogorc amas ekonomikuri Teoria urCevT. amitom ganasxvaveben xelisuflebis realur politikas da imas Tu rogor unda moiqces xelisufleba.

4 ix. Хайек Ф. А. Общество свободных. c. 151.

16

mogexsenebaaT rom sazogadoeba, romelSic Cven varsebobT mravalferovania Tavisi konkretuli miswrafebebiT, Tumca sakuTari sargeblis maqsimizaciisken miswrafebis kuTxiT erTiania, rac Sezruduli resursebis samyaroSi calkeul individTa strategiebis konfliqts warmoSobs. es mosazreba am saerTo wesidan ver gamoricxavs im adamianebs, romlebic xelisuflebaSi arian, radgan Cven ar gvaqvs safuZveli vivaraudoT, rom xelisuflebis warmomadgenlebi altruistebi arian. amasTan araerTgvarovania Tavad xelisufleba, risi Sedegic aris is, rom nebismieri gadawyvetileba miiReba xelisiflebis sxvadasxva doneze. saqme mxolod is imaSi rodia, rom xelisufleba iyofa sxvadasxva doneebad da ganStoebebad rogoricaa aRmasrulebeli, sakanonmdeblo, sasamarTlo, regionuli xelisufleba, centraluri banki, saxelmwio sawarmoebi da a.S. romlebic raRaTqma unda gavlenas axdenen saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politikis mimarTulenebis CamoyalibebaSi, aramed arsebobs sazogadoebaSi “gansakuTrebul interesTa” uamravi “jgufi”.

amis gaazreba gvWirdeba imdenad, ramdenadac xelisuflebis mier nebismieri gdawyvetlebis miReba, sxvadasxva subieqtebis ekonomikur kompromiss niSnavs (iseve rogorc mTlianad saxelmwifos arseboba). am mxriv sainteresoa fiskaluri eqspansia, romlis rolic TandaTan izrdeba. Warbi fiskaluri eqspansiis problema Tavismxriv sazogadoebis mxridan sxvadasxva kompromiss gulisxmobs erTerTi maTgani exeba inflacias, sxva Semosavlebis droSi gadanawilebas da a.S. mizezi magaliTad aris xelisuflebis mxridan xelixiflebis SenarCunebisaTvis brZola, ris gamoc xSir SemTxvevaSi mTavroba arCevnebis win fiskaluri eqspansiis politikas mimarTavs; agreTve motivi SeiZleba iyos konkurenti partiisaTvis arasaxarbielo mdgomareobis datoveba maTi (konkurenti partiis) xelisuflebaSi mosvlis SemTxvevaSi; xSirad saxelmwifo imis gamo rom ver zrudavs sakuTar Tavs (risi motivic ar gaaCnia) didi raodenobiT saxsrebs sesxulobs, Sedegad ki dadi vali mZime tvirTad awveba sazogadoebas. amitom saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis gamoyenebas bavri mowinaarmdege hyavs, romlebis xelisuflebas mZarcvelebTan aigiveben.

miuxedavad didi sirTulisa, romelic saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis gatarebasTan aris dakavSirebuli. saxelmwifo mainc atarebs mas. imisaTvis, rom gavigoT Tu ra probelmebs awydeba xelisufleba saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis gatarebisas, warmodgenas gviqmnis ian tinbergeris naSromi, romelmac Camoayaliba is mniSvnelovani nabijebi, romelsac gadis saxelmwifi ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisas. saxelmwifom, misi azriT:

pirvel rigSi unda gansazRvros ekonomikuri politikis miznebi, romelic rogorc wesi gulisxmobs sazogadoebrivi keTildreobis funqciis maqsimizacias.

meore - Seafasos Tu ra instrumentebis krebuls flobs am miznis misaRwevad.

mesame- unda SeimuSavos garkveuli modeli, raTa SearCios instrumentis gamoyenebis optimaluri mniSvneloba.

makroekonomikaSi farTod gavrcelebulia nulovani inflaciis, sruli dasaqmebis, ekonomikuri zrdis mizanTa krebuli, romelTa miRwevisaTvis gamoiyeneba, rogorc fiskaluri politika ise

17

monetaruli politika. tinbergenma gamoikvlia ekonomikuri politikis Teoria, martivi wrfivi midgomis safuZvelze. misi azriT Tu politikosebs aqvT ori mizani da ori instrumenti am problemis gadawyvetisaTvis, maSin politikosebs SeuZliaT miaRwion sasurvel Sedegs, im SemTxzvevaSi Tu instrumentebis gamoyenebis efeqti gavlenas ar axdens erTi meoreze. Tuki miznebis raRac n raodenoba gvaqvs, maSin dagvWirdeba miznebis sruli realizaciisaTvis n raodenobisve instrumenti.

sxvadasxva politikuri instrumentebi praqtikaSi SeiZleba iyos sxvadasxva xelisuflebis organoebis xelSi. magaliTad fuladi politika SeiZleba areguliros centralurma bankma, fiskaluri – mTavrobam da sakanonmdeblo organom. tinbergenis azriT Tu xelisiflebis sxvasdasxva Stoebi SeTanxmebulad moqmedeben maSin SesaZlebelia decentralizaciis pirobebSi mizanis miRwevis amocanis gadaWra Sesabamisi amocanis Sesabamis instrumentTan Sesabamebis gziT.

im SemTxvevaSi, roca miznebi ufro metia vidre maTi gadaWris instrumentebi maSin yvela miznis miRweva SeuZlebelia. Sedegad warmoiqmneba cnobili problema, romelic or mizans Soris kompromisis moZebnas gulisxmobs. am SemTxvevaSi gansazrvraven socialuri danakargebis funqcias, romelic samizne mniSvnelobebidan maTi gadaxris gamo gamoxatavs sazogadoebriv danakargebs. amis Semdeg unda ganisazRvros samizne maCveneblebis mniSvnelobebi, romlebic axdenen socialuri danakargebis minimizirebas. Amisi magaliTia maRali inflacia romlis, Semcirebac SesaZlebelia mxolod gamoSvebis moculobis SemcirebiT.

Tumca realoba gansxvavebulia. realobaSi gacilebiT rTulia msgavsi midgomis gatareba, radgan politikosebs gadawyvetilebebis miReba ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi uwevT, am pirobebSi ki optimaluri politikis SemuSaveba Zalian rTulia. Tu ganusazrvreloba dakavSirebulia egzogenur SokebTan maSin is gavlenas ver axdens optimaluri politikis arCevaze. magram Tu ganusazrvreloba endogenur faqtorzea damokidebuli maSin, politikisebs marTebT frTxili da naklebad aqtiuri politikis gatareba. uiliam pulma aCvena, rom xSirad xelisufleba vardeba iseT mdgomareobaSi roca mas ar SeuZlia gamoiyenis orive instrumenti da arCevani erT-erTze unda SeaCeros.

ekonomikuri politikisadmi aseTi standartuli midgoma gakritikebul iqna lukasis mier, romelmac “lukasis kritikis” saxeli miiRo. lukasi ekonomikuri politikis Camoyalibebisa da mizanSewonilobis sakiTxSi ufro Sors midis. misi azriT SeuZlebelia ekonomikuri modelis koeficientebis gansazRvra, romelic sando iqneba. misi TqmiT modelTa umravlesobaSi SeuZlebelia molodinis faqtoris gaTvalliswineba, ris gamoc msgavsi modelebi naklebsavaraudoa, rom iyvnen efeqturebi ekonomikuri prognozebis SemuSavebaSi. amitom aseTi prognozireba ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebaSi sulac ar xsnis misi Sedegebis ganusazRvrelobis problemas.

18

II. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda

saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politikis roli, ekonomikuri ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT, SeiZleba farTo speqtriT Sefasdes. Tumca SeiZleba sakiTxTa agregireba da maTi mikro da makro doneze ganxilva. mikro doneze saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politika gulisxmobs saxelmwifos rols: sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis warmoebaSi, konkurenciis dacvaSi, Semosavlebisa da simdidris gadanawilebaSi, sabazro saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebasTan dakavSirebuli uaryofiTi da dadebiTi gare efeqtebis gaTvaliswinebasa da bazris am naklovanebebis aRmofxvraSi; makro doneze saxelmwofo politika ki gulisxmobs ekonomikis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofas da maSasadame misi mizania grZelvadiani mdgradi ekonomikuri zrdis miRweva sruli dasaqmebis, stabuluri fasebisa da dabalansebuli sagadamxelo balansis uzrunvelyofis pirobebSi.

yovelive zemoT xsenebuli, ekonomikuri politikis ZiriTad miznebs warmoadgens. praqtikulad ekonomikuri politikis miznis gansaxorcieleblad mniSvnelovania mizanTa urTierTdamokidebulebis gaTvaliswineba. maT Soris sxvadasxva kavSiri arsebobs, magaliTad: mizezobrivi, droiTi da ierarqiuli damokidebulebebi. ierarqiuli TvalsazrisiT SeiZleba ganvasxvavoT mizanTa horizontaluri da vertikaluri damokidebuleba. horizontaluri damokidebuleba arsebobs Tanabari rangis miznebs Soris. am tipis mizanTa Semdeg damokidebulebas ganasxvaveben: identuroba, harmonia, neitraliteti, konfliqti, urTierTgamoricxvadoba. mizanTa vertikalur urTierTdamokidebulebaSi miznebi ierarqiuli saxiT arian warmodgenilni. Sualeduri miznebi ufro maRal miznebTan mimarTebaSi daqvemdebarebul rolSi arian.

mizanTa miRweva gulisxmobs im instituciuri garemos formirebas, romelic saSualebas miscems saxelmwifos gavlena moaxdinos ekonomikis koniunqturis cvlilebaze. amitom ekonomikur literaturaSi dayofa wesrigis politikad da procesis politikad gansakuTrebul adgils ikavebs. ekonomikuri wesrigis politikis mizani Tvisebrivi CarCo pirobebis formirebaSi mdgomareobs, anu instituciuri garemos CamoyalibebSi.

procesis politika, wesrigis politikas eqvemdebareba da gulisxmobs wesrigis politikis farglebSi ekonomikis koniunqturis cvlilebaze zemoqmedebas. procesis politika uSvalod moicavs ekonomikuri politikis strategiasa da taqtikas. amitomac mniSvnelovania erTmaneTisagan gavmijnoT ekonomikuri politikis strategiisa da taqtikis elementebi, rogorc ekonomikuri politikis miznis miRwevis saSualebebi. strategiis elementebs warmoadgens saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politikis arCeuli mimarTuleba. xSirad mizanTa dapirispirebis msgavsad, sxvadasxva strategiebi miznis funqciidian gamomdinare erTmaneTTan sxvadasxva urTierTdamokidebulebas avlens.

19

makroekonomikuri politikis taqtika gulisxmobs ukve gansazRvruli miznisa da Sesabamisi strategiis arsebobis pirobebSi instrumentTa SezRuduli speqtris SerCevas, romelic miznisa da strategiis funqciidan gamomdinare ierarqiis sistemiTa da urTierTdamokidebulebis TaviseburebiT xasiaTdeba.

magaliTisaTvis, strategias warmoadgens ekonomikis stimulireba, taqtikas ki warmoadgens fulad-sakredito anda sabiujeto-sagadasaxado instrumentis gamoyeneba. ekonomikis stimulirebis strategiis daqvemdebarebaSic aris sxvadasxva strategiebi, kerZod, mastimulirebeli fulad-sakredito politikis, Semakavebeli fulad-sakredito politikis, eqspansiur sabiujeto-sagadasaxado da sxva strategiebis saxiT. am SemTxvevaSi taqtikas warmoadgens Sesabamisi strategiis ganxorcielebis sxvadasxva instrumentebi, rogorebic aris operaciebi Ria bazarze, savaldebulo rezervebis normis cvlileba da sxva.

makroekonomikuri politikis ganxilvisas mocemul TavSi

ganxiluli iqneba: M

monetaruli (fulad-sakredito) politika;

fiskaluri (sabiueto sagadasaxado) politika;

makroekonomikur politikaze moqmedi araekonomikuri faqtorebi;

2.1 monetaruli politikis zemoqmedebis saSualebebi da arxebi

imasTan dakavSirebiT, Tu ra gavlenas axdens monetaruli politika warmoebis moculobaze arsebobs sxvadasxva Sexeduleba. azrTa sxvadasxvaobis safuZvels realuri ekonomikisa da nominaluri ekonomikis urTierTkavSiris problema udevs safuZvlad. keinzianelebi miiCneven, rom monetaruli politika mWidro kavSirSia realur seqtorTan da maSasadame kontrolirebad inflacias ekonomikuri zrdis faqtorad ganixilaven. monetaristebi ki miiCneven, rom “kontrolirebadi inflacia” iwvevs moklevadian periodSi warmoebis zrdas, romelic grZelvadian periodSi nivelirdeba. safuZvlad ama Tu im Teoris udevs monetaruli transmisiis (gadamcemi) meqanizmis sxvadasxvagvari gaazreba, romelic mWidro kavSirSia fasebisa da xelfasebis qcevis Sinaarsisa da Taviseburebebis gaazrebasTan. fasebsa da xelfasebs ekonomikaSi wamyvani roli ukaviaT, f.f. xaiekis ganmartebiT isni bazarze umniSvnelovanesi informaciis wyaroa. amitom monetaruli gadamcemi meqanizmi pirdapir fasebisa da xelfasebis gavliT moqmedebs ekonomikis koniunqturaze.

ganvixiloT keinzianuri midgoma jon hiqsiseuli da elvin hanseniseuli interpretaciiT, romelic neoklasikur tradiciebSia gadawyvetili. keinzianuri modeli gamoxatavs realuri da nominaluri seqtorebis myar urtierTkavSirs (fulis da saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazrebis urTierTqmedebiT). modelSi fulis bazari

20

erTis mxriv saprocento ganakveTis saSualebiT axdens gavlenas erTobliv moTxovnaze, meores mxriv nominaluri xelfasis sixistis gamo gavlenas axdens erTobliv miwodebaze.

keinzianur koncefcias fulze moTxovnis ori komponentis gamijvna udevs safuZvlad:

1. e.w. transaqciuli moTxovna. igi fulis raodenobrivi Teoriidan gamomdinareobs da gviCvenebs Tu ramdeni unda iyos fulis raodenoba ekonomikaSi saqonelsa da momsaxurebas da fuls Soris balansis uzrunvelsayofad da wlis manZilze fulis brunvis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom gamosyidul iqnas wlis manZilze warmoebuli investiciuri da samomxmareblo saqoneli. mis mixedviT Tu izrdeba Semosavali, matulobs garigebebis raodenobac da maSasadame fulze moTxovnac:

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2. e.w. spekulaciuri moTxovna (fulze moTxovna rogorc qonebaze), romelsac warmoSobs safinanso bazrebze riskebisa da gaurkvevlobis mdgomareoba. es ukanaskneli ukiduresad aramyaria. amitomac masTanaa dakavSirebuli miswrafeba naRdi fulis SenarCunebisaken – midrekileba likvidurobisaken. keinzis azriT swored es midrekileba moqmedebs saprocento ganakveTsa da mis ryevebze. rac ufro metia ltolva naRdi fulis SenarCunebisaken miT maRalia saprocento ganakveTi da piriqiT, rac sustia likvidurobisaken midrekileba, miT naklebia saprocento ganakveTi:

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keinzis azriT moTxovnasa da kapital dabandebaze uamravi cvladi moqmedebs. keinzianuri Teoria amtkicebs, rom mouqneli xelfasebisa da fasebis pirobebSi amas mivyavarT efeqtiani moTxovnis iseTi donisaken, romelic ar uzrunvelyofs sawarmoo da adamianuri reursebis srulad gamoyenebas. yalibdeba mdgomareoba saxelad `wonasworoba arasruli dasaqmebis pirobebSi”. Tu neoklasikur TeoriaSi wonasworoba miiRweva fasebis moqnili cvlilebiT, keinzianur TeoriaSi igi SeiZleba miRweul iqnas mxolod im cvladebis cvlilebiT, romlebic moqmedeben efeqtian moTxovnaze. es ZiriTadi cvladebi da maT Soris urTierTkavSiri ar atarebs koncefciaSi abstraqtul xasiaTs. keinzis azrit saboloo mizani im cvladebis arCevaa, romelTac SeuZliaT iyon centraluri xelisuflebis kontrol qveS realur ekonomikur sistemaSi. monetaruli politika umTavresi instrumentia efeqtiani moTxovnis misaRwevad. keinzi umuSevrobis mizezs fulad-sakredito faqtorebs ukavSirebs. misi azriT, arsasruli dasaqmenbis mizezi saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze arasakmarisi efeqtiani moTxovnaa, romelic umetewilad gamowveulia investiciebis ukmarisobiT. xolo am ukanasknelis mTavar mizezad, igi procentis maRal normas asaxelebda.

keinzianelebis msjeloba eyrdnoba gantolebas, romelic gamomdinareobs erovnul doneze sargeblis maqsimizaciis pirobidan:

21

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Tu fulis miwodeba izrdeba, maSin saprocento ganakveTi unda Semcirdes, xisti fasebis hipoTezis gaTvaliswinebiT ki unda Semcirdes kapitalis zRvruli prduqti, es ki moxdeba maSin Tu kapitalis moculoba gaizrdeba, aseTi saxiT saprocento ganakveTis (sargeblis normis) Semcirebas mivyavarT kapitalis zRvruli produqtis Semcirebamde, rac zrdis moTxovnas sainvesticio saqonelze. ase rom SedarebiT mcirediT fulis masis gazrda gamoiwvevs investiciuri saqonlis gazrdas, rac gazrdis warmoebas da Seamcirebs umuSevrobas. monetaruli transmisiuli meqanizmi am SemTxvevaSi ase gamoiyureba:

YNIrM

axla ugulvebelvyoT saprocento ganakveTis gavlena da ise ganvixiloT monetaruli politika postkeinzianur koncefciaSi. amisaTvis avagoT erToblivi moTxovnisa da miwodebis funqciebi IS-LM modelis gamoyenebiT, gaviTvaliswinoT fasebis dinamika da davakvirdeT monetaruli politikis gavlenas ekonomikis koniunqturaze.

avagoT ekonomikis dinamikuri modeli5. amisaTvis igi logariT-muli saxiT CavweroT:

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MMm

,

1

1

t

tt

P

PP

,

1

1

tmpcmpch

.

da A avtonomiuri jarjebi; il likvidurobisaken zRvruli

midrekileba; mpc moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba. dauSvaT, rom sawyisi momentisaTvis ekonomika aRiwereba zemoT

mocemuli gantolebaTa sistemiT da imyofeba grZelvadian wonasworobaSi, anu umuSevrobis bunebriv donesa da warmoebis

5 ix. Тарасевич Л.С., Гребеннков П.И., Леусский А.И. Макроекономика. М, 2005.c.306-309.

(IS)

(sawarmoo funqcia)

(Sromis miwodeba)

(Sromaze moTxovna)

(filifsis mrudi)

(LM)

22

potenciur doneze. nominaluri xelfasebis zrdis tempi nulis tolia:

,0ˆ modeli Cven SegviZlia CavweroT erToblivi moTxovnisa da

erToblivi miwodebis sistemis saxiT. IS da LM modelebis gaerTianebiT vRebulobT erToblivi moTxovnis dinamikur models. xolo filifsis mrudis modificirebiT (oukeinis funqciasTan gaerTianebiT6) erToblivi miwodebis dinamikur models. amasTan, radgan xelfasebi xistia dauSvaT

rom .ˆ1 tt am SemTxvevaSi miviRebT:

1

211ˆ

tF

s

t

tt

D

t

YY

mYY

FY

11

012

11

2

101 ,

sadac - oukenis parametria

dauSvaT saxelmwifo atarebs momdevno periodidan moTxovnis

stimulirebis politikas fulis masis zrdis saSualebiT - .ˆ mrasac ekonomika gamohyavs dinamikuri wonasworobis mdgomareobidan. Sedegad ekonomika iwyebs gadasvlas axali wonasworobis mdgomareobaSi.

modelis mixedviT erTobliv miwodeba dadebiTad aris daxrili radganac keinzianuri koncefciis mixedviT, momuSaveebi ganicdian fulad iluziebs. es niSnavs, rom mwarmoeblebs SeuZliaT daiqiraon maTvis saWoro muSaxeli fasebis gazrdis pirobebSi, radgan momuSaveebi orientirdebian nominalur xelfasze da misi zrdis SemTxvevaSi sTavazoben met Sromas. vuSvebT, rom momuSavebs ar SeuZliaT uari Tqvan samsaxurze, Tumca SeuZliaT gavlena moaxdinon nominalur xelfasze. magram droTa ganmavlobaSi momuSaveebi SeamCneven Warb moTxovnas Srmaze da moiTxoven nominaluri xelfasis zras. nominaluri xelfasis zrdas ki mivyavard erToblivi miwodebis zrdisaken (erToblivi miwodebis mrudi gadaadgildeba zemoT da marcxniv). Tu ra sididiT gadaadgildeba erToblivi miwodeebis mrudi es damokidebulia Sromis bazarze siWarbisadmi nominaluri xelfasis mgrZnobiarobaze, romelic mocemulia filifsis mrudiT. Tumca keinzianuri modelis Tavisebureba is gaxlavT, rom erToblivi moTxovnis mrudi ufro metad gadaadgildeba vidre erToblivi miwodebis.

ase rom dinamikuri wonasworoba ekonomikaSi damyardeba erToblivi moTxovnis zrdisa da erToblivi miwodebis Semcirebis Sedegad, rac gamoixateba rogorc erToblivi moTxovnis ise erToblivi miwodebis mrudebis zemoT gadaadgilebaSi.(nax.2.1.) da Sedegad ekonomika wonasworobisaken gadadis monotonurad(nax.2.2.).

6 ix. Тарасевич Л.С., Гребеннков П.И., Леусский А.И. Макроекономика. М, 2005.c.299-301.

23

ttt m ˆˆ,,

dy 4

sy4

dy3

sy3 sy2

dy2

sy1

dy1

sy0

dy0

Fy

1y y

sd YY ,

dY

sY

FY

t

nax.2.1. nax.2.2.

monetaruli impulsisadmi Seguebis procesi, romelmac ekonomikagamoiyvana grZelvadiani wonasworobis mdgomareobidan, Sewydeba maSin roca nominaluri xelfasi Seegueba fulis axali zrdis temps, anu roca .0

grZelvadiani wonasworobis pirobebis gansazRvrisaTvis CavsvaT filifsis mrudis gantolebaSi erToblivi moTxovnisa, Sromaze moTxovnis da Sromis miwodebis gantolebebi, miviRebT, rom ekonomikaSi dinamika aRiwereba ori diferencialuri gantolebiT:

aa

pn

a

m ttstt 20

1

1

)ˆ(ˆ

m̂ ,

ramdenadac, tttt 11ˆˆ . Amis gaTvaliswinebiT gveqneba:

11 ˆˆˆ

ttma

maSin Sesabamisad Seguebis procesi dasruldeba, roca

tt m̂ˆ1

anu maSin roca nominaluri xelfasis zrdis tempi toli iqneba fulis masis zrdis tempis.

grZelvadiani wonasworobis axal mdgomareobaSi warmoebis done iqneba meti, vidre potenciuri. es imitom xdeba, rom axal grZelvadin wonasworobaSi nominaluri xelfasis zrdis tempi dadebiTia 0 da metia wina periodis zrdis tempze. maSasadame umuSevrobis done filifsis mrudis mixedviT, wonasworul mdgomareobaSi mcirea vidre umuSevrobis bunebrivi done.

potenciuri warmoebis donis gadaWarbeba grZelvadiani wonasworobis mdgobareobaSi, erToblivi moTxovnisa da erToblivi miworebis modelis meSveobiT, imiT aixsneba rom Seguebis procesSi erToblivi miwodebis mrudi gadaadgildeba ufro naklebi sididiT vidre eroblivi moTxovnis mrudi, ramdenadac Seguebis procesSi nominaluri xelfasis zrdis tempi yovelTvis CamorCeba fulis masis

24

da fasebis zrdis temps. isini mxolod grZelvadian periodSi utoldebian.

ase rom keinzianur modelSi mastimulirebel monetarul politikas grZelvadian periodSi mivyavarT fasebis donis amaRlebamde, magram amasTan izrdeba Semosavali. transmisiis meqanizmi ki am SemTxvevisaTvis aseT saxes SeiZens:

YNpm

Tu Cven a.modilianis moxmarebis funqcias gamoviyenebT gavafarTovebT models, sadac qonebis seqtoric aris gaTvaliswinebuli, romlis SemadgenlobaSic realuri fulis maragebic Sedis, maSin transmisis meqanizmi Seicvleba. kerZod gaizrdeba monetaruli politikis zemoqmedebis xarisxi. mastimulirebeli monetaruli politikis gatarebisas gaizrdeba realuri fulis maragebi. Sedegad qonebis seqtoris gavliT gaizrdeba moxmareba da maSasadame erToblivi moTxovnac, rac gamoiwvevs fasebis donis zrdas. amitom am SemTxvevisaTvis transmisiis meqanizmi Semdegi saxiT Seicvleba:

YNpCm

monetaristebis midgoma eyrdnoba fulis raodenobrivi Teoriis gantolebas (1) da filifsis mudis Semdeg modifikacias:

.)2.2(ˆˆ e

s nn

da daSvebas molodinis arsebobis Sesaxeb, monetistuli koncefciis CarCoebSi analizisaTvis principuli mniSvneloba ar aqvs ra tipis molodins avirCevT es iqneba statikuri molodin

1 tt pp Tu

adaptiuri .ln ee es movlenebis ganviTarebis Sinaars ar

Secvlis. monetarul koncefciaSi Cven vakvirdebiT fulis neitralobis

Tvisebas grZelvadian periodSi Tumca moklevadian periodSi igi mainc axdens gavlenas realur seqtorze. molodinis faqtoris CarTva ganasxvavebs keinzianur da monetaristul koncefciebs.

imisaTvis, rom monetaruli politikis gavlenis efeqti vnaxoT monetaristuli ekonomikuri koncefciis farglebSi, ganvixiloT monetaruli impulsis moqmedebis Sedegebi dinamikur wonasworobaze. avagoT erToblivi moTxovnisa da erToblivi miwodebis modeli. erToblivi moTxovnis modeli monetaristul TeoriaSi ganisazRvreba fulis raodenibrivi gantolebidan (2.1.). CavweroT is logariTmuli saxiT:

.)3.2(ln kymp

rom davakvirdeT fulis miwodebis zrdis gavlenas ekonomikur koniunqturaze, gantoleba (2.3.) CavweroT nazrdebis saxiT:

)(ˆ1 tt yym

simarTivisaTvis dauSvaT, rom 1 da CavweroT erToblivi

moTxovnisa da erToblivi miwodebis dinamikuri modeli Semdegi sistemis saxiT:

25

)4.2(

ˆ1

e

tF

s

t

tt

D

t

YY

myy

filifsis mrudis modificirebul gantolebaSi (2.2) Tu CavsvamT erToblivi moTxovnis (2.4) gantolebas, Sromaze moTxovnisa da Sromis miwodebis gantolebebs. Sedegad miRebuli diferencialuri gantoleba aRwers monetaruli impulsis Semdeg dinamikuri sistemis wonasworobaSi mosvlis pirobebs:

)5.2(1

lnˆ

)1(

)ˆ(ˆ

0

2

a

pmn

aa

aam es

e

dinamikuri wonasworobis damyareba ekonomikaSi, da misi gadasvla axal grZelvadian wonasworobaSi, keinzianuri modelisagan gansxvavebiT ganisazRvreba ara mxolod nominaluri xelfasis zrdis tempis SewyvetiT, aramed inflaciuri molodinis SeguebiT inflaciis faqtiur donesTan amitomac sistemas aqvs Semdegi mdgradi mdgomareobis pirobebi:

0ˆ ,e

marTlac (2.5) gantolebidan gamomdinareobs:

1

)(ˆˆ

a

pm e ,

Sedegad grZelvadian wonasworobis piroba iqneba: .ˆˆ me

Tu es ukanaskneli piroba sruldeba, maSin (2.4) sistemidan gamomdinareobs, rom grZelvadian periodSi umuSevrobis wonasworuli done udris umuSevrobis bunebriv dones, anu grZelvadian periodSi warmoebis done ar icvleba izrdeba mxolod fasebis done.

Tu (2.4) gantolebaTa sistemas Semdegi saxiT gadavwerT:

)ˆ(2

1

)ˆ(2

1

1

1

F

e

tt

F

e

tt

ymyy

ymy

davinaxavT rom:

m

yyyn

yn

y

m

e

F

e

d

e

e

e

ˆˆ

ˆˆ

ˆˆ

ˆ

Tavdapirvelad fulis miwodbis zrda, monetaruli Teoriis

mixedviT gamoiwvevs dasaqmebis zrdasa da gamoSvebis moculobis zrdas, radganac realuri fulis maragebis zrda zrdis qonebis seqtors da maSasadame moTxovnasa da fasebs, amasTan inflaciuri

26

molodini da nominaluri xelfasis zrdis tempi CamorCeba fasebis donis zrdis temps. Sedegad mcirdeba realuri xelfasis moculoba ekonomikaSi. Seguebis procesis dros mosalodneli inflacia da nominaluri xelfasis zrdis tempi iwyebs miswrafebas faqtiuri inflaciisaken. nominaluri xelfasis Seguebas mivyavarT realuri xelfasis zrdaisaken, da sabolood igi ubrundeba Tavis winandel dones. Sedegad grZelvadiani wonasworobis mdgomareobaSi nominaluri xelfasis zrdis tempi da fasebis zrdis tempi tolia fulis masis zrdis tempis, xolo umuSevrobis done tolia bunebrivi donis umuSevrobis da warmoebac mis potenciur dones ubrundeba.

es daskvna erToblivi moTxovnisa da erToblivi miwodebis mrudebis saSualebiT SeiZleba aixsnas, imiT rom keinzianuri modelisagan gansxvavebiT monetarul modelSi monetaruli impulsis Sedegad erToblivi miwodebis mrudi ufro metad gadaadgildeba vidre erToblivi moTxovnis. es ganpirobebulia imiT, rom erToblivi miwodebis gadaadgilebaze inflaciuri molodinis zegavlena ufrodaufro Zlierdeba, romelic miiswrafis inflaciis faqtiuri mniSvnelobisaken. ris Sedegadac grZelvadian periodSi ekonomika daubrundeba Tavis potenciur dones, ufro maRali inflaciis doniT.(nax.2.3.)

ase rom monetaruli koncefciis mixedviT monetarul politikas ar SeuZlia gavlena moaxdinos realuri ekonomikis zrdis tempze da Tu xelisuflebas surs miaRwios dasaqmebis donis amaRlebas grZelvadian periodSi mas mouwevs monetaruli impulsis mudmivad gaZliereba, rac inflaciis daCqarebamde migviyvans. aqedan gamomdinare moneratistebi politikosebs urCeven sifrTxiliT gamoiyenon monetaruli instrumenti da mkacri fulad-sakredito politikis mxardaWeriT gamodian.

ttt m ˆˆ,,

sy4

sy3

sy2 sy1

sy0

dy 4

dy3

dy2

dy1

dy0

Fy y

nax 2.3.

monetaruli skolis mniSvnelovan ganayofs warmoadgens racionaluri molodinis koncefciis warmomadgenlebi. maT agreTve axal neoklasikur makroekonomikur Teorias (`axali klasikosebi”) uwodeben. isini ewinaaRmdegebian adaptiuri molodinis Teoriis Sinaars, romlis mixedviTac molodini warsuli informaciis

27

dayrdnobiT yalibdeba da ar cdilobs momavalSi molodinze moqmedi faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebas. isini akritikeben nominaluri xelfasebis zrdis tempis, inflaciisa da inflaciuri molodinebis Seguebis meqanizms. maTi azriT molodini ara egzogenuri, aramed endogenuri parametria, radgan ekonomikuri agentebi dainteresebulni arian inflaciis rac SeiZleba zustad prognozirebaSi. racionaluri molodinis Teoriis mixedviT molodini mTlianad saprognozo maCvenebelia da igi mxolod SemTxveviT SeiZleba aRmoCndes mcdari. Teoriis mixedviT ekonomikuri agentebi icnoben ekonomikis realur models da amis mixedviT ayalibeben TavianT molodins:

)(

.ˆ

E

em

e

e

sadac, e - prognozis SemTxveviTi Secdomaa; fulis miwodebis zrdis tempis gansazRvrisas monawileobs

sistemuri komponenti ),( e romelsac sazogadoeba winaswar

racionalurad afasebs da SemTxveviTi komponenti ),(e romlis

prognozirebac SeuZlebelia. kavSiri inflaciasa da umuSevrobas Soris robert lukasiseul

variantSic modificirebuli filifsis mrudiT (2.2)-iT aRiwereba. oRond inflaciuri molodini racinaluri molodinis Sesabamisad ganisazRvreba. lukasi Tavis arasrulyofili informaciis modelSi ganmartavs, rom SemTxveviTi komponenti mxolod maSin aris nulisagan gansxvavebuli, roca fulis masis cvlilebis tempi moulodnelad icvleba: ).ˆ(ˆ mEme amitom realuri Sedegebi mxolod monetarul Soks SeuZlia gamoiwvios, radganac ekonomikuri subieqtebi arasrulyofil, damaxinebul informaciis pirobebSi arasrulyofilad afaseben inflaciis mosalodnel maCvenebels da Sedegad ver asxvaveben fardobiTi da nominaluri fasebis cvlilebas erTmaneTisagan, rac warmoebis zrdis mizezic xdeba. es ukanaskneli daskvna kargad Cans, elastikuri xelfasebis Teoriidanac, arasrulyofili informaciis pirobebSi:

.

11

1

11**

1

11*

1

1*

1

1

t

e

tt

t

t

e

t

t

e

t

t

t wwP

P

P

PPw

P

Pw

P

Ww

*w - wonasworuli realuri xelfasi. gantolebidan kargad Cans, rom Tu mosalodneli inflaciis

tempi CamorCeba faqtobriv inflaciis temps, maSin faqtobrivi realuri xelfasi iqneba naklebi wonasworulze, rac imas niSnavs, rom mwarmoeblebi met muSaxels daiqiraveben da maSasadame warmoeba potenciur doneze meti iqneba.

preskotisa da kidlenis7 azriT molodini Tavad axdens gavlenas saxelmwifos monetarul politikaze. maTi azriT arsebobs raRac socialuri sargeblianobis funqcia, romelic politikuri arCevanis racionalizacias axdens:

).,( tt uSS

7 ix. Kydland F.E., Prescott E.C. “Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans.”The Journal of

Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 3. (Jun., 1977), pp. 473-492.

28

saxelmwifo cdilobs am funqciis optimizacias, Semdegi SezRudvebis pirobebSi:

)(

)6.2()( *

t

e

t

e

ttt

E

uu

sadac, (2.6) warmoadgens filifsis mruds. socialuri sargeblianobis funqcia modelSi mocemulia

elifsuri ganurCevlobis mrudebis saxiT. rac ufro axlosaa elifsiebi TavianT centrTan miT maRalia sargeblianoba. amasTan saxelmwifo gavlenas ver axdens filifsis mrudis gadaadgilebaze mas mxolod SeuZlia filifsis mrudze gadaadgileba. xolo sazogadoeba molodinis formirebiT gadaadgilebs filifsis mruds. avagoT igi filifsis mrudTan erTad(nax.2.4).

nax.2.4

davuSvaT saxelmwifo cdilobs molodinze zemoqmedebis gziT Seamciros misTvis miuRebeli inflaciis tempi da atarebs nulovani inflaciis tempis politikas. Tu sazogadoeba endo da daijera mTavrobis, maSin inflaciuri molodini nuls gautoldeba da filifsis mrudi qvemoT gadmoadgildeba O wertilSi - warmoebis potenciur doneze. magram radgan saxelmwifo cdilobs sazogadoebrivi sargeblis maqsimizirebas pirobebSi. saxelmwofo gaatarebs mastimulirebel monetarul politikas, manam, sanam ekonomika ar gadava A optimalur wonasworobis wertilSi, sadac warmoebis done potenciurze marTalia. magram grZelvadian periodSi inflaciuri molodinis zrdis gamo filifsis mrudi zemoT gadaadgildeba da ekonomika gadainacvlebs C wertilSi da ekonomika ubrundeba warmoebis potenciur dones. am wertilSi sazogadoebas aqvs iseTi inflaciuri molodini, romlis pirobebSic saxelmwifos ar aqvs survili gamovides am mdgomareobidan. maSasadame C wertilSi yalibdeba e.w. SeTanxmebuli wonasworoba.

sistematuri monetaruli politika, romelic gulisxmobs ara marto fulis masis zrdas aramed fulis masis zrdis tempis zrdas ar axdens gavlenas realur ekonomikur cvladebze. maSasadame fuli xasiaTdeba superneitralobis TvisebiT. aqedan gamomdinare mxolod arasistematur politikas SeuZlia realur cvladebze gavlenis moxdena. Tu mTavroba mudmivad moulodnel araprognozirebad nabijebs dgams, maSin ekonomikaSi wonasworoba gauaresebul pirobebSi

t

O *uut

A

C

)(0

e

tt

)(1

e

tt

29

damyardeba. araprognozirebadi monetaruli politikis dros fasebi kargaven TavianT sainformacio da alokaciur funqcias, radgan ekonomikuri agentebi TviT fardobiTi fasebis zrdisac ki fasebis donis zrdad afaseben.

monetaristuli modelis kidev erT gansxvavebul formas warmoeadgebs fulis ganxilva sargeblianobis funqciaSi. fulis sargeblianobis funqciis (MIU)8 modeli pirvelad migel sidrauskim SeimuSava. fulis sargeblianobis funqciaSi CarTva eyrdnoba daSvebas, rom ekonomikuri agentebi sargebels saqonlisa da momsaxurebis da dasvenebis moxmarebidan iReben:

)7.2(),(0

t

tt

t lcUU

sadac c saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmareba;

l dasvenebis

drois moxmareba;

1

1 da warmoadgens diskontirebis koeficients,

rogorc yovel mocemuli momentisaTvis moxmarebis fardobiTi mniSvnelobis Semfasebeli, xolo ganakveTi, romelic gviCvenebs or mosazRvre periodSi moxmarebisadmi upiratesobas. amasTa

neoklasikuri standartuli daSvebaa: .0,0,0,0 llcc UUUU

imisaTvis, rom SeviZinoT raRac raodenobis saqoneli da

momsaxureba )(c amisaTvis unda davxarjoT garkveuli dro )( Cveni

droiTi maragidan )(T . agreTve Cven SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moxmarebis )(c zrda, zrdis, saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis SeZenaze daxarjul dros )0( c , xolo realuri fulis

maragebi )/( mpM , romelsac Cven vflobT drois konkretuli

momentisaTvis amcirebs mas )0( m . Sedegad Cven SegviZlia es

funqciuri damokidebuleba zogadi saxiT CavweroT: ).,( tt mc Tu

gaviTvaliswinebT am ukanasknel gantolebas da (2.7) gantolebas, SegviZlia CavweroT:

.),,()),(,(00

t

ttt

t

t

ttt

t mlcUUmcTcUU

romlisTvisac: .0,0 mm UU

erTeul saojaxo meurnoebisaTvis t periodisaTvis gvaqvs Semdegi sabiujeto SezRudva:

.)1(

)()1(),(

1

1

11

d

t

d

tt

d

t

d

t

s

t

d

tttttttt

d

ttt

BBR

MMnnWkkPcPknfPG

)8.2(

sadac,

),( t

d

t knf - sawarmoo funqcia; tG saxelmwifos wminda

transferti; ))1(( 1 kkt - wminda investicia; )( s

t

d

t nnW - damatebuli

muSaxelis daqiravebaze gaweuli xarji; d

t

d

t MM 1 - danazogebis zrda

8 ix. Casares M.“Long-Run Analysis in Alternative Optimizing Monetary Models.” Departamento de Economía - Universidad

Pública de Navarra in its series. 2001.pp. 22-27.

30

fulis nominaluri maragebis saxiT; d

t

d

tt BBR

1

1)1( - obligaciebSi

ganxorcielebuli fuladi dabandebebi; tR - nominaluri saprocento

ganakveTi; - amortizaciis norma.

amasTan: ,0 t

s

t lnT

Tu (2.8) gantolebas gavyofT tP -ze maSin Cven SegviZlia

optimizaciis amocana Semdegi saxiT CavweroT:

.),,( max11 ,,,,,,0 ddsd bmlnnkct

ttt

t mlcU

SezRudvebi:

,0

.0)1(

)1()()1(),(

1

1

1

1

1

t

s

t

d

t

d

tt

d

tt

d

t

s

t

d

tttttt

d

tt

lnT

bbr

mmnnwkkcknfg

amocana daiyvaneba lagranJis funqciis maqsimizaciis pirobamde. Sedegad ki vRebulobT:

.0)1()'7(

,0)1()'6(

,0)'5(

,0)'4(

,0),()'3(

,0)),(1()'2(

,0)'1(

11

1

1

1

1111

2

21

111

1

ttt

tttm

tl

ttt

tt

d

tn

t

d

tktt

tc

r

U

U

w

wknf

knf

U

tt 21 ,

),'1( )'6( da )'7( gantolebebidan vRebulobT fulze moTxovnis finqcias:

cttmttttm URRUrU

)1(0)1()1( 1

1

1

11

radgan,

0,0 mc UU da Tan amasTan, Tu dauSvebT, rom fulis

masis zrda amsubuqebs garigebebis dadebas da zrdis moxmarebis zRvrul sargeblianobas, rac faqtobrivad aris daSveba fulis

arasuperneitralobis Sesaxeb ,0, mcU fulze moTxovnis funqciaSi:

).,( tt Rcmm

0cm da 0Rm

),'1( )'4( da )'5( gantolebebidan vRebulobT:

ctl U

w

U

1

sabolood miviRebT Semdeg transmisiul sqemas:

ynlUmR w

U

c

l

1

1

lagranJis mamravlebia

31

sadac .1

1

t

tt

M

MM

Tu dauSvebT rom ,0, mcU maSin modelSi adgili eqneba

superneitralobas da fulis masis zrda veraviTar gavlenas ver moaxdens realur ekonomikaze.

zemoT moyvanil Teoriebis ZiriTadi mizania daadginos:

1. fuli aris neitraluri, Tu ara da SesaZlebelia, Tu ara monetaruli politikis gamoyeneba ekonomikur koniunqtureze gavlenis mosaxdenad;

2. Tu SesaZlebelia monetaruli politikis gamoyeneba ekonomikur koniunqtureze gavlenis mosaxdenad, maSin rogoria monetaruli transmisiis meqanizmi da misi Sedegebi;

Cemi azriT, SegviZlia erTmniSvnelovnad davaskvnaT, rom neitraloba da superneitraloba, rogorc fulis Tviseba, igi wminda saxiT arsebobs ekonomikaSi. am mosazrebis mowinaaRmdegeebs argumentad empiriuli gamokvlevebi mohyavT, romlis mixedviTac fuli procikluri cvladia. Tumca sulac ar aris aucilebeli, rom fulis masis zrdasa da ekonomikur zrdas Soris pirdapiri mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSiri arsebobdes. fulis prociklurobis empiriuli dadasturebis sawinaaRmdegod SeiZleba moviyvanoT Semdegi argumentiebi: pirveli _ fulze moTxovna damokidebulia ara marto mimdinare koniunqturaze, aramed mosalodnel warmoebis moculobaze. Tuki molodinebi momavalTan dakavSirebiT optimisturia, maSin firmebi Seecdebian gazardon TavianTi mimdinare operaciebi, ris gamoc gaizrdeba fulze moTxovna. maSasadame fulze moTxovna damokidebulia mTliani sazogadoebrivi produqtis warmoebaze, da kerZod masSi Sualeduri produqtis wilze. xolo Sualeduri produqtis wili optimisturi Tu pesimisturi molodinebidan gamomdinare meryevia – maSasadame fulis prociklurobasa da fulis neitralobis Tvisebas Soris winaaRmdegoba ar arsebobs. meore _ adamianebi sargebels iReben qonebis seqtorSi transaqciuli operaciebis Sedegad, rac qveynis mimdinare mwarmoeblurobaze sulac ar aris damokidebuli, am faqtoris gamo fulis masis nazrdi win uswrebs warmoebis nazrds. aqedan gamomdinare SegviZlia davaskvnaT, rom fuli warmoebis zrdis tempis mimarT neitraluria.

kidev erTi argument, romlis gamoc fuli SeiZleba araneitralurad CaiTvalos aris daSveba fasebis anda xelfasebis sixistis Sesaxeb. Cemi azriT, fasebis anda xelfasebis sixistes SesaZloa mxolod arasrulyofili informaciis pirobebSi hqondes adgili, rogorc amas `axali ekonomikis~ warmomadgnlebi amtkiceben. Tumca aRniSnuls moklevadiani xasiaTi aqvs, ris gamoc ekonomikaSi disproporciebi da dinamikuri wonasworobis darRvevas aqvs adgili. amitom sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, ekonomika wonasworobis dabrunebas mxolod sawyisi fardobiT da axali fasebis donis pirobebSi moaxerxebs.

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Zalian mniSvnelovania aRvniSnoT, rom fulis neitralobis mtkiceba ar niSnavs, rom es wesi ekonomikaSi nebismier pirobebSi meqanikurad xorcieldeba. arasrulyofili informaciis gamo, rac ekonomikaSi praqtikul problemas warmoadgens, mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravs eqsces. fasebis sainformacio funqciis darRveva ki SeiZleba realur seqtorze da mis stabilurobaze araerTgvarovnad aisaxos. kerZod is SeiZleba iqces sabrunav saSualebebSi, ZiriTad saSualebebSi da sxva araTanabari investiciebis ganxorcielebis mizezi. es ki, rogorc elvin hanseni gansazRvravs `mcire~ da `didi~ ekonomikuri ciklebis gamomwvevi mizezi da dinamikuri arastabilurobis dakargvis faqtoria. Tumca fulis neitralobis Tviseba am garemoebis ugulvebelyofas ar niSnavs, is ubralod gviCvenebs ekonomikis grZelvadian ganviTarebis tendencias, sadac is dinamikur wosaworobaSi imyofeba.

statistikuri monacemebi adasturebs, rom naRdi fulis miwodebis zrdis temps, bevrad aRemateba yoveli momdevno fuladi agregatebis zrdis tempi (M1, M2, M3.) rac imis dasturia, rom finansur bazarze sul ufro swrafad izrdeba `gapirovnebuli valdebulebebi~9 vidre naRdi fuli. me vfiqrob, rom am tipis fulis, zrda fulze moTxovnis zrdis tolfasia grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi, radganac, rogorc viciT, farTo fulis Semadgeneli fasiani qaRaldebi vadianobis pirobiT arian gansazRvrulni. amitom farTo fulis zrda grZelvadin periodSi, gamoiwvevs saprocento ganakveTis zrdas, radgan valdebulebebis dafarvis periodisaTvis gaizrdeba fulze moTxovna garigebebisaTvis. (es ukanaskneli dadasturda 2008-2009 wlebis msoflio ekonomikuri krizisis pirobebSi).

fuli Tavisi SinaarsiT warmoadgens `gaupirovnebel valdebulebas~ da igi xels uwyobs transaqciuli meqanizmis gamartivebas. erTis mxriv, vinaidan fulis masis zrdas ar SeuZlia warmoebis SesaZleblobebis gazrdasa da teqnologiur progresze gavlena moaxdinos, is mxolod am valdebulebebis gaufasurebas gamoiwvevs; meores mxriv, swored imitom, rom fuli `gaupirovnebeli~ valdebulebaa arasrulyofili informaciis pirobebSi, realuri valdebulebis zrdis safuZvelic SeiZleba gaxdes.

centraluri bankis mier fulis miwodebis iseTi instrumentebi, romlebic mxolod orsafexuriani sabanko sistemis gavliT moqmedeben grZelvadian periodSi fulis bazarze disbalansis warmoqmnis mizezi xdeba. aseTi instrumentebia sadiskonto ganakveTis cvlileba da savaldebulo sarezervo normebis dadgena. es ukanaskneli centraluri bankis mier iSviaTad gamoiyeneba, radgan is arc Tu ise moqnili instrumentia da ekonomikaSi SesaZloa ryevebis gamomwvevi mizezic gaxdes. rac Seexeba sadiskonto ganakveTs, is komerciuli bankebisaTvis kreditis miwodebas gulisxmobs, rac moklevadian periodSi iwvevs saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebas, radgan zrdis sasesxo saSualebebis miwodebas. amasTan izrdeba `farTo fulis~ moculoba, rac

9 termini “gapirpvnebuli valdebulebis” qveS gulisxmob iseT valdebulebas, romelic

gulisxmobs fasiani qaRaldis mWeris mimarT konkretuli iuridiuli Tu fizikiri piris valdebulebas (Tan es piri valdebulia mas daufaros valdebuleba naRdi fuliT). xolo “gaupirovnebeli valdebulebis” qveSi vgulisxmob naRd fuls, radgan naRdi fulis mWeris winaSe konkretuli iuridiuli da fizikuri piri ar flobs valdebulebas, is sazogado valdebulebis mqone fasiani qaraldia, romelic swored sazogadoebis SeTanxmebis Sedegia.

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grZelvadiani `ganpirovnebuli valdebulebebis~ valdebulebebis dagrovebas gulisxmobs. amitom grZelvadian periodSi fulze moTxovnis tempi fulis multiplikatoris efeqtis msgavsad multiplitirdeba, rac saprocento ganakveTebis zrdas ganapirobebs da SesaZloa ekonomikuri aqtivibis dacemis winapiroba gaxdes. maSasadame erT mxares sabanko seqtorsa da meore mxares sxva ekonomikur agentebs (saojaxo meurneobebs, firmebs) Soris fulis miwodebis daubalansebloba saprocento ganakveTis grZelvadian periodSi arastabilurobas ganapirobebs.

operaciebi Ria bazarze, Tavisi ASinaarsiT, warmoadgens instruments, romelic yvela ekonomikuri agentis monawileobas gulisxmobs, ase rom misi saSualebiT ganxorcielebuli politika metad moqnilia. marTalia, igi `farTo fulis” Semaferxebel faqtors ar warmoadgens, Tumca uzrunvelyofs fulis miwodebis metnaklebad dabalansebul ganawilebas, rac disproporciebs grZelvadian valdebulebebs Soris nivelirebas ukeTebs. amaSi igulisxmeba is, rom gadaxdis unarianobis krizisis SemTxvevaSi komerciuli bankebis erTgvar ukanasknel damzRvevs centraluri banki warmoadgens, romelic swored iafi kreditis gacemiTa da savaldebulo rezervebis normis daweviT axorcielebs amas. xolo sxva ekonomikuri agentebi am mxriv araTanabar pirobebSi arian, amitom operaciebi Ria bazarze erTgvari nivelirebis saSualebas iZleva, raRa Tqma unda sxva Tanabar pirobebSi.

centarluri banki fulis miwodebis taqtikur arsenals, rogorica savaldebulo sarezervo normebis dadgena, sadiskonto saprocento ganakveTis cvlileba, operaciebi Ria bazarze da operaciebi savaluto bazarze, Tavisi ZiriTadi miznis, makroekonomikuri stabilurobis amocanidan gamomdinare iyenebs. Tu romel instruments gamoiyenebs igi damokidebilia ekonomikis koniunqturaze, romelic gansazRvravs centraluri bankis e.w. Sualedur miznebs. Sualedur miznebis centraluri banki saboloo miznis misaRwevad saorientaciod iyenebs. Sualeduri miznebis rangSi orientireba tradiciulad xdeba fuladi agregatebis, saprocento ganakveTis, inflaciis tempis da nominaluri gacvliTi kursis stbilurobaze. Sualeduri miznis arCeva mWidrod ukavSirdeba Sida da gare wonasworobis problemas.

Tuki Sualeduri miznis rangSi ganvixilavT saprocento ganakveTis stabilurobas. am miznis arCeva ZiriTadad sainvesticio moTxovnis dastabilizebas isaxavs miznad. keinzianuri IS-LM modelis farglebSi erToblivi moTxovnis Sokisa da agreTve fulze moTxovnis cvlilebis nivelirebisaTvis, romlebic ekonomikis wonasworobis darRvevasa da koniunqturul ryevebs iwvevs, saWiroa centralurma bankma cvalos fulis miwodeba da SeinarCunos saprocento ganakveTis stabiluroba. monetaruli zemoqmedebis am arxs saprocento ganakveTis arxi ewodeba da is keinzianur doqtrinas eyrdnoba.

Tuki Sualeduri mizani fuladi agregatebis stabilizaciaa, maSin amis mizezi fasebis donis dastabilizeba unda iyos. mkacri monetaruli politika Sedegad saprocento ganakveTis ryevebs iwvevs, amitom fuladi agregatebis stabilizacia da saprocento ganakveTis

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stabilizacia konkurenti miznebia. romelime maTganze arCevanis gakeTeba ki ekonomikur koniunqturazea damokidebuli.

rac Seexeba inflaciis zrdis SeCerebas igi marto fulis miwodebis stabilizacias ar gulisxmobs is agreTve fulis miwodebis tempis cvlilebas da inflacur molodinze zemoqmedebazea damokidebuli.

sagareo ekonomikuri wonasworobis miznidan gamomdinare centraluri banki abalansebs erovnuli da ucxouri fulis miwodebas ekonomikaSi. is ar cvlis mTlianad fulis miwodebas ekonomikaSi. am mimarTulebiT centraluri bankis orientiri nominaluri gacvliTi kursia. igi ori mimarTulebiT SegviZlia ganvixiloT fiqsirebuli da cvalebadi gacvliTi kursis politikis kuTxiT. stabiluri gacvliTi kursis Sinaarsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom igi gavlenas axdens ucxouri kapitalis nakadebsa da sagareo vaWrobis moculobaze. inflaciuri molodinebis msgavsad ekonomikuri agentebi ayalibeben devalvaciur molodins, sadac arasrulyofili informaciis gamo didia riskebi saerTaSoriso finansuri Tu sasaqonlo operaciebis ganxorcielebis dros. amitom Tuki erovnuli banki miznad gacvliTi kursis stabilurobas isaxavs, maSin erToblivi moTxovnis Sokisa da agreTve fulze moTxovnis cvlilebis nivelirebisaTvis, saWiroa centralurma bankma cvalos fulis miwodeba. magaliTad, erovnul valutaze moTxovnis zrda (Semcireba), zrdis (amcirebs) erovmuli valutis kurs ucxour valutasTan mimarTebaSi. am SemTxvevaSi erovnuli valutis kursi erTgvari indikatoris rols TamaSobs fulis bazarze koniunqturis cvlilebis TvalsazrisiT da erovnuli valuris miwodeba unda gaizardos (Semcirdes). eroblivi Sida moTxovnis Sokic analogiur Tvisebebs flobs, radgan erTovlivi moTxovnis Soki da erovnul valutaze moTxovnis cvlileba mkacr mizez Sedegobriv kavSirSi arian erTmaneTTan. maSasadame gacvliTi kursis stabiluroba fulis agregatebis stabilurobasTan mimarTebaSi konkurentul mizans warmoadgens. amasTan stabiluri gacvliTi kursi erToblivi moTxovnis Sokis prevencias isaxavs miznad, raTAar moxdes ryevebi ucxouri investiciebis ryevebis safuZvelze. mcuravi gacvliTi kursis politika ar iTvaliswinebs am moTxovnaze reagirebas rac erovnuli warmoebis moculobis Semcirebis winapiroba SeiZleba gaxdes.

magram, roca Sokebi ara Sida, aramed sagareo gavcliTi kursisagan damoukidebeli faqtorebiT aris gamowveuli. magaliTad, roca gacvliTi kursis cvlileba sazRvargareT fulis masis cvlilebiT aris gamowveuli da ara erovnul ekonomikaSi warmoSobili erovnul valutaze moTxovnis cvlilebis gamo. maSin fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis polirika monetaruli Sokis eqsports axdens. agreTve, iseT pirobebSi, roca eqsportze moTxovna mcirdeba da warmoebis done ecema, mcuravi gacvliTi kursis politika xels uSlis umuSevrobis zrdas, romelsac gacilebiT didi masStabi eqneboda gacvliTi kursis dafiqsirebis SemTxvevaSi. es efeqti gamowveulia imiT rom, mcuravi gacvliTi kursis politikis pirobebSi savalutro politikiT ar xdeba mniSvnelovani cvlileba erovnuli velutis miwodebaSi, rac erovnuli produqtis mimarT moTxovnis Semcirebis gadamcemi meqanizmis erTgvari Semakavebeli xdeba. mcuravi gacvliTi kursis politika sainteresoa agreTve sagareo wonasworobis

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SenarCunebis kuTxiTac. valutis gaufasureba, romelic sawyis etapze eqsportze moTxovnis SemcirebiT aris gamowveuli, saerTaSoriso bazarze zrdis samamulo saqonlis konkurentunarianobas da Sesabamisad amcirebs momdinare operaciebis balansis deficits. Tuki eqsportze moTxovnis Semcirebas ara erTjeradi aramed mudmivi xasiaTi aqvs, valutis gaufasufasureba ufro metad icavs ekonomikas warmoebis vardnisagan. amasTan igi icavs erovnul ekonomikas sxva qveynis monetaruli politikis zegavlenisagan. gacvliTi kursi erTgvari CaSenebuli stabilizatoris funqciasac asrulebs.

miuxedavad imisa, rom aqtiur fulad sakredito politikas ekonomikis koniunqturuli ryevebis ganeitralebis funqcia aqvs. monetaristebi milton fridmenis TaosnobiT monetaruli politikis, rogorc aqtiuri anticikluri instrumentis winaaRmdeg gamodian. kerZod m. fridmenis azriT, rogorc es zemoT vixileT, monetaruli politika mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdens ekonomikis koniunqturaze moklevadian periodSi, Tumca grZelvadian priodSi mas fasebis donis cvlilebamde mivyavarT. amasTan miuxedavad imisa rom moklevadian periodSi mis gamoyenebas realuri efeqti aqvs, problema mis adekvatur gamoyenebaSia. problema drouli zomebis miRebaSia, radgan informaciis miReba-gadamuSavebasa da gadawyvetilebis miReba-ganxorcielebas Soris sakmao lagi warmoiSveba. amis gamoc SeiZleba ekonomika ukve axal realobas iyos Seguebuli da aqtiurma monetarulma politikam SeiZleba an recesia, an bumis stimulireba gamoiwvios. amitom gamosavlad fridmens monetaruli politikis fulad agregatebis zrdis tempebis stabilurobaze orientireba miaCnia.

azrTa sxvadasxvaobis ZiriTadi mizezi aris is, rom m. fridmeni miiCnevs, rom fulze moTxovnis Sokebze drouli reagireba centralur banks ar SeuZlia. mimaCnia, rom m. fridmenis mosazreba aqtiuri monetaruli politikis winaaRmdeg damajerebelia. magram me ar vTvli, rom centralurma bankma uari unda Tqvas instrumentis mTeli Tavisi potencialiT gamoyenebaze. Tanamedrove pirobebSi sul ufro izrdeba informaciis gadamuSavebisa da prognizirebis teqnologiebi, amitom centralur banks saSualeba aqvs gaataros ufro aqtiuri politika.

miuxedavad imisa rom centralurma bankma SeiZleba icodes zustad rogori monetaruli politika unda gaataros, mainc SeiZleba warmoiSvas problema. `axali ekonomikis” Teoriis warmomadgenlebi robert barou da devid gordoni10 miiCneven, rom arsebobs ndobis problema. ndobaSi igulisxmeba ekonomikuri agentebis mxridan ndoba centarluri bankis politikis mimarT. es problema kargad Cans zemoT ganxilul kidland-preskotis modelSic. problemis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom Tu centraluri bankis mimarT ar arsebibs ndoba, maSin inflaciuri molodini maRali iqneba. amis ZiriTadi mizezi is aris, rom centaraluri banki SeiZleba ganicdides xelisuflebisagan zewolas da ekonomikis koniunqturaze, vTqvaT umuSevrobis Semcirebis mizniT, axdendes zemoqmedebas. sanam arsebobs undoblobis safuZveli

10

Barro, Robert J. and David B. Gordon. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation ina Model of Monetary Policy." Journal of

Monetary Economics, Vol. 12, No. 1,(July 1983), pp. 101-121.

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da centraluri banki sakuTari avtoritetis gamosworebaze fiqrobs inflaciuri molodini maRali iqneba.

am viTarebaSi gamosavlad moiazreba:

1. centraluri bankis mier garkveuli wesebiT moqmedeba da garkveuli valdebulebebis Sesruleba;

2. centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelobaze valdebulebebis Sesrulebis stimulebis Seqmna;

3. centraluri bankis damoukideblobis gafarToveba; 4. centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelad iseTi adamianis

daniSvna, romelic midrekili iqneba mkacri monetaruli politikis gatarebisaken.

centraluri bankis mier garkveuli wesebiT moqmedeba da garkveuli valdebulebebis Sesrulebis erT-erT xerxs Targedireba warmoadgens, romelic gulisxmobs miznobrivi macveneblis gamocxadebas da mis Sesrulebas. Targedirebidan gavrcelebulia fuladi agregatebis tempisa da inflaciis Targedireba.

danarCeni sami ara centraluri bankis muSaobis principis cvlilebas, aramed centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelobaze zemoqmedebas gulisxmobs. amasTan meore da meoTxe konkurenciaSi arian mesame midgomasTan. isini centraluri bankis politikaze zemoqmedebas gulisxmoben.

Cemi azriT, marTvis TvalsazrisiT upiratesoba centraluri bankis mTavrobisagan da politikuri gadawyvetilebebisagan damoukideblobas unda mieniWos. magram, vTvli, rom Targedireba da molodinebze zemoqmedeba ar mimaCnia centraluri bankis ZiriTad amocanad da rom centaraluri bankis mier mkacri valdebulebebis aReba moqnilobas ukargavs monetarul politikas. ekonomikuri agentebi ar xelmZRvaneloben statikuri da adafturi molodinebiT aramed racionaluri molodinebiT. rac imas niSnavs, rom ekonomikuri agentebi yoveli periodisaTvis damoukideblad iReben gadawyvetilebas inflaciuri molodinis Sesaxeb. radganac ekonomikur aqtivobaze mniSvnelovan gavlenas axdens realuri fulis maragebi, logikuria, rom centraluri banki inflaciuri molodinebidan gamomdinare unda sazRvravdes fulis miwodebis temps, magram rogorc aRvniSneT inflaciuri molodinis formireba centraluri bankis politikisagan damoukideblad ar xdeba. maSasadame isini urTierTganpirobebuli movlenebia, Tanac inflacia, rogorc fenomeni SemTcveviTi sididea. amitomac mimaCnia, rom inflaciur molodinze aqcentis gakeTeba arasworia. ukanasknel periodSi inflaciis Targedirebas Tan axlavs umuSevrobis zrda. aq ismis kiTxva, Tuki nominaluri cvladebi stabiluria maSin, ratom xdeba realuri cvladebis cvlileba. Cemi azriT, inflaciis Targedirebisas ekonomikaSi realur fulze moTxovnis ugulvebelyofis gamo, ekonomikaSi sawarmoo aqtivoba mniSvnelovnad mcireba. upriani iqneba moxdes fulis agregatebis, saprocento ganakveTisa da gacvliTi kursebis sabilurobis politikis kombinireba. Tanac centraluri bankebi ar xasiaTdebian gadawyvetilebaTa ganxorcielebis didi lagiT.

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amitom, Cemi azriT monetaruli politika ufro moqnili unda iyos da exmianebodes ekonomikaSi mimdinare koniunqturul cvlilebebs da unda eyrdnobodes Sualeduri miznebis sworad SerCevasa da amis safuZvelze ekonomikis stabilurobis SenarCunebas.

2.2 fiskaluri politikis gavlena ekonomikur koniunqturaze

Tu ra arxebiT da ra gavlenas axdens fiskaluri politika makroekonomikur stabilurobaze, SegviZlia gamovyoT cal-calke Semdegi aspeqtebi: saxelmwifo xarjebis arxi; saxelmwifo gadasaxadebis arxi; saxelmwifo valisa da saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis zegavlena makroekonomikur stabilurobaze; erTobliv moTxovnaze zegavlena; erTobliv miwodebaze zegavlena; saxelmwofo xarjebis efeqturoba; ekonomikis stimulirebis meqanizmi;

sxvadasxva koncefciis warmomadgenlebs sxvadasxva midgoma da damokidebuleba aqvT fiskaluri politikis mimarT. klasikosebi eTanxmebian rikardos eqvivalenturobis Teorias, romlis mixedviTac erTmaneTisagan ar gansxvavdeba ekonomikaze gadasaxadebis cvlilebis da xarjebis cvlilebis efeqti. magaliTad Tu saxelmwifo gazrdil xarjebs gadasaxadebis zrdiT afinansebs, maSin mcirdeba saojaxo meurneobebis moxmareba, radganac mcirdeba gankargvadi Semosavali. xolo Tu saxelmwifo gazrdil xarjebs sasesxo kapitalis bazarze saxsrebis sesxebis saSualebiT afinansebs, maSinac mcirdeba saojaxo meurneobebis moxmareba, radganac izrdeba danazogebi gadasaxadebis mosalodneli zrdis gamo. problemis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom adamianebi iTvaliswineben imas rom Tu saxelmwifo valis aRebiT daafinansebs sakuTar xarjebs, maSin momavalSi am valis dasafarad is aucileblad gazrdis gadasaxadebs. amitom, radgan adamianebi orientirdebian ara mimdinare Semosavalze, aramed permanentul Semosavalze da amis mixedviT cdiloben sakuTari sasicocxlo ciklis manZilze uzrunvelyon Tanabari moxmareba, isini am SemTxvevaSi mimdinare periodSi gazrdian danazogebs.

imisaTvis, rom rikardos eqvivalenturobis Teoria Sesruldes tradiciulad unda dakmayofildes Semdegi pirobebi11: pirveli, momavlis srulyofilad ganWvretis SesaZlebloba (m. feldStaini) –vfiqrob, rom es piroba mocemuli midgomis farglebSi (sxva Tanabar pirobebSi) sruldeba, radgan rikardos eqvivalenturoba ar gulisxmobs, rom saxelmwifo xarjebi SeiZleba atarebdes, raime damatebiT gare efeqtebs. amitom es garemoeba momavlis ganWvretas savsebiT SesaZlebels xdis am SemTxvevaSi sazogadoebis momavlisadmi molodinidan gadaxra SemTxveviT xasiaTs atarebs; meore, likvidurobis SezRudvis ar arseboba – es argumenti gulisxmobs, rom Tu ekonomikuri subieqtebi saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi ver axerxeben Tavisuflad saxsrebis sesxebas, maSin isini pesimisturi molodinis gamo, ar SezRudaven mimdinare moxmarebas da rikardos eqvivalenturobas adgili ar eqneba. es argumenti j.tobins, u.buiters,

11 ix. Сакс Дж., Эихенгрин Б. Макроекономика. М, 1996. c.238-239.

38

k.jous da g.xaberts ekuTvnis. Tumca rikardos eqvivalenturoba makroekonomikuri xasiaTisaa da ara mikroekonomikuri. amasTan vTvli, rom Tuki msgavsi ganwyoba (pesimisturi molodini) makroekonomikur saxes iZens, maSin unda vivaraudoT, rom adgili aqvs sasesxo kapitalis bazarze gamodevnis efeqts didi masStabiT. am SemTxvevaSi ar vtovebT rikardos eqvivalenturobis pirobebs, ubralod es Seesabameba mdgomareobas, sadac ekonomikSi saxelmwifos grZelvadiani monawileoba aWarbebs laferis pirveli rigis wertils da makroekonomikur doneze optimalur sagadasaxado tvirTze maRal mdgomareobas axasiatebs; mesame, usasrulo sasicocxlo cikli - Tumca am pirobis Sesrulebis aucilebloba uaryo r.baroum. misi azriT adamianebi zrunaven momaval Taobaze da cdiloben dautovon maT im Rirebulebis qoneba, rom momavalSi gadasaxadebis zrdis gamo maTi keTildReoba ar Semcirdes. am midgomas barou-rikardos eqvivalenturobas uwodeben. meoTxe, ekonomikuri agentebi racionalurad moqmedeben;

klasikosebi aqedan gamomdinare simartivisaTvis uSveben, rom saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda finansdeba gadasaxadebis zrdis xarjze. saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdis efeqti ki ori mimarTulebiT SegviZlia ganvixiloT. pirveli, rodesac adgili aqvs saxelmwifo xarjebis erTjerad zrdas da meore, rodesac saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdas aqvs permanentuli saxe.

Tu adgili aqvs saxelmwifo xarjebis erTjerad zrdas maSin moxmarebis moculoba ar icvleba, radgan gankargvadi Semosavlebis Semcireba kompensirdeba danazogebis SemcirebiT. klasikur TeoriaSi fiskaluri zemoqmedebis obieqti Sromis bazaria, ris gavliTac fiskaluri politika axdens gavlenas ekonomikis moklevadian ryevebsa da grZelvadian zrdaze. saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda gavlenas ar axdens sawarmoo funqciaze da Sromis zRvrul produqtze, maSasadame Sromaze moTxovnis pirobebi ar icvleba. Tumca igi gavlenas Sromis miwodebaze axdens. ganvixiloT solou-svanis ekonomikuri zrdis modelis farglebSi fiskaluri politikis zemoqmedebis efeqti. simartivisaTvis ugulvebelvyoT teqnikuri progresi da amortizacia. Cveni daSvebis mixedviT gadasaxadebi zemoqmedebas axdenen danazogebze

- ).(tss maSasadame fiskalur politikas SeuZlia gavlena moaxdinos kapitalaRWurvis doneze. imisaTvis, rom davakvirdeT gadasaxadebis gavlenas grZelvadian ekonomikur zrdaze, CavweroT ekonomikuri zrdis sabaziso gantoleba:

)9.2()()( nkkftsk

sadac, k kapital aRWurvis donea, )(kf warmoebis moculoba

erT muSaxelze, n mosaxleobis zrdis tempi, t gadasaxadis ganakveTi. gadasaxadebis mdgradi ekonomikuri zrdis traeqtoriaze gavlenis

Sesaswavlad gantoleba (2.9) gavawarmooT t s mimarT 0k pirobebSi:

)10.2()(

nfs

kfs

dt

dk

k

t

39

sadac, ts t -s mimarT s -is warmoebuli.

(2.10) gantolebidan Cans, rom Tu 0ts maSin 0/ dtdk da piriqiT.

maSasadame, Tu gadasaxadebi izrdeba, mcirdeba danazogebi da

kapitalSeiaraRebis mdgradi done. k s Semcireba niSnavs, rom izrdeba Semosavali kapitalze da mcirdeba xelfasebi (nax. 2.5).

maSasadame saxelmwifo gavlenas axdens kapitalSeiaraRebis mdgrad doneze. aqedan gamomdinare fiskalur politikas SeuZlia ekonomika kapitalSeiaraRebis `oqros wesiT~ gansazRvrul doneze gadaiyvanos, Tumca kapitalSeiaraRebis `oqros wesiT~ gansazRvruli done SemTxveviT movlenas warmoadgens. Tu sad iqneba ekonomika sagadasaxado politikis ganxorcielebis Semdeg damokidebulia, imaze Tu sad imyofeboda ekonomika manamde. imis mixedviT Tu sad mdebareobs ekonomika kapitalSeiaraRebis `oqros wesiT~ gansazRvruli doneze maRla Tu dabla, fiskaluri politika ori efeqtis matarebelia. Tu ekonomika kapitalSeiaraRebis `oqros wesiT~ gansazRvruli doneze maRla mdebareobs, maSin gadasaxadebis zrdis SesaZlo Sedegi moxmarebis donis zrdaa da danazogebis Semcireba. maSasadame Zlieria Canacvlebis efeqti. Tu piriqiT – maSin, moxmarebis donis da danazogebis donis Semcireba. maSasadame Zlieria Semosavlis efeqti. aqve isic unda aRiniSnos, rom kapitalSeiaraRebis `oqros wesiT~ dansazRvrul doneze gadasvla gakavSirebulia erTi mdgradi mdgomareobidan meoreze gadasvlis danaxarjebTan.

klasikosebi amtkiceben rom zemoT moyvanili saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda, dafinansebis formis miuxedavad iwvevs dasaqmebulTa keTildReobis Semcirebas da Sromis miwidebis zrdas, ris xarjzec izrdeba warmoebis potenciuri done. aRniSnuli fiskaluri Sokis gavlena Zlierdeba magaliTad, iseTi saxelmwifo xarjebis SemTxvevaSi, rogoricaa samxedro xarjebi, romlebsac kerZo seqtorisaTvis pirdapiri sargebeli ar moaqvT. xolo iseTi xarjebi, rogoricaa samedicino momsaxureba, gzebis mSenebloba da a.S. anacvlebs kerZo seqtoris xarjebs da naklebi uaryofiTi efeqtiT xasiaTdeba.

A1

A2

k*1 k*2

s2f

s1f

nk y

k

gadasaxadebis gareSe

gadasaxadebis

dawesebis Semdeg

nax. 2.5

c*

k* k*2 k**

`oqros wesi~

GR

nax. 2.6

40

Tu am efeqts IS-LM da AD-AS modelis farglebSi gavaanalizebT vnaxavT, rom ekonomikis stimulirebis meqanizmi erToblivi miwodebis gavliT moqmedebs ekonomikaze. dasaqmebis zrda zrdis ra potenciur warmoebis dones gadaadgilebs grZelvadiani wonasworobis mruds (LRAS,FE) marjvniv. gadasaxadebis zrdis Sedegad dagegmili danazogebis Semcireba zrdis saprocento ganakveTs, rasac saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari wonasworobaSi mohyavs da IS mrudi gadaadgildeba mrajvniv, rasac mocemuli fasebis pirobebSi AD mrudis marjvniv gadaadgileba mohyveba. ekonomika aRmoCndeba moklevadian wonasworobaSi _ B wertilSi. Tuki ekonomika saerTo ekonomikur wonasworobaSi ar aRmoCndeba, rac SemTxveviT SeiZleba moxdes, maSin daiwyeba fasebis koreqtirebis procesi. maSasadame LM da SRAS mrudebi gadaadgildeba da ekonomikaSi aRdgeba saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba. Sedegad ekonomika aRmoCndeba warmoebis, saprocento ganakveTis, fasebisa da dasaqmebis ufro maRal doneze _ C wertilSi (nax.2.7,nax.2.8).

rogorc vnaxeT klasikur midgomaSi cvlilebebi saxelmwifo xarjebsa da sagadasaxado kanonmdeblobaSi gavlenas axdens realur ekonomikaze. Tumca sagadasaxado kanonmdeblobis cvlileba sakmaod rTuli procesia, radgan misi xSiri cvlileba sazogadoebisaTvis damatebiT xarjebTan aris dakavSirebuli (TamaSis wesebis cvlilebis xarjebi.) amavedros sagadasaxado politikis gatarebis dros Znelia Sefasdes am politikis zemoqmedebis efeqti gadasaxadebis sxvadasxva saxeobebisa da dabegvris sxvadasxva formebis gamo.

analizidan gamoCnda, rom mTavrobas fiskaluri politika SeuZlia gamoiyenos, rogorc anticikluri instrumenti. Tumca klasikosebi misi anticikluri daniSnulebiT gamoyenebis midgomas ewinaaRmdegebian. TavianTi midgomis dasasabuTeblad Semdegi argumentebi mohyavT:

pirveli, fasebi da xelfasebi swrafad egueba axal saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworobis pirobebs, rac fiskaluri politikis zemoqmedebis masStabs mniSvnelovnad amcirebs. Tumca es ar aris sakmarisi piroba imisaTvis, rom saxelmwifom uari Tqvas mastimulirebel fiskalur politikaze.

P r

Y Y

nax. 2.8 nax. 2.7

IS1 IS2

LM1

LM2

FE2 FE1

Y1 Y3 Y2

r1

r2

r3

SRAS2

SRAS1

LRAS1 LRAS2

AD1 AD2

Y1 Y3 Y2

P1

P2 A

A

B

B

C

C

41

meore, ekonomikaSi dacemis dros, rodesac xelfasebi, dasaqmeba da warmoebis moculoba dabal donezea, klasikur modelSi saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda warmoebas zrdis Sromis miwodebis zrdis xarjze. es ukanaskneli ki izrdeba, imitom, rom adamianebi Raribdebian. aqedan gamomdinare klasikuri Teoriis mixedviT ekonomika swrafad modis wonasworul mdgomareobaSi, xolo saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdiT dasaqmebis gazrda ufro Seamcirebs adamianTa keTildReobas vidre gaaumjobesebs. amitom klasikosebi miiCneven, rom saxelmwifo xarjebi unda gaizardos mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tuki maTi sargeblianoba gadasaxadis gadamxdelTa xarjebs aRemateba. miuxedavad klasikosebis organuli damokidebulebisa, minda gavamaxvilo yuradReba erT garemoebaze. ekonomikuri ciklis, dacemis fazaSi saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda, Tuki dauSvaT isini saxelmwifo saxazino obligaciebis gayidviT dafinansdeba, mimdinare periodSi ar Seamcirebs saojaxo meurneobebis moxmarebas, radgan maT ar eqnebaT saSualeba izrunon momavalSi ekonomikis mosalodneli ganviTarebis prevenciaze. Tanac radgan dacemis fazaSi dasaqmeba dabalia, kapitalaRWurvis done maRali iqneba da metad mosalodnelia, rom igi aWarbebdes kidec kapitalaRWurvis `oqros wesiT~ gansazRvrul dones. amitom am pirobebis gaTvaliswinebiT fiskalur politikas Teoriulad SeuZlia ekonomikuri ryevebis nivelireba.

mesame, fiskaluri politikis ganxorcieleba dakavSirebulia droiT lagebTan, radgan saWiroa garkveuli dro, raTa saxelmwifom SeimuSavos da miiRos gadawyvetileba fiskaluri politikis cvlilebis Sesaxeb. im droisaTvis, roca saxelmwifo Secvlis fiskalur politikas ekonomikuri koniunqtura SeiZleba mTlianad Seicvalos. garda amisa problemas warmoadgens ara marto momavali koniunqturis prognozireba, aramed Tavad fiskaluri politikis, rogorc ekonomikis stimulirebis instrumentis, zegavlenis xarisxi ekonomikur koniunqturaze.

Cvens mier zemoT moyvanili msjeloba exeboda, situacias roca adgili hqonda saxelmwifo xarjebis erTjerad zrdas. roca saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda permanentul xasiaTs atarebs, maSin adgili aqvs saojaxo meurneobebis moxmarebis Semcirebas da ara danazogebis Semcirebas. maSasadame, am SemTxvevaSi, samomxmareblo xarjebis Semcireba saxelmwifo xarjebis nazrdis tolia. am kuTxiT klasikosebi eqspansiur fiskalur politikas uaryofiTad afaseben: saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda amcirebs kerZo moxmarebasa da investiciebs, rac mdgrad ekonomikur ganviTarebas uSlis xels.

sazogadoeba SiSobs, rom saxelmwifos mier Tavisi xarjebis saxazino obligaciebiT dafinanseba, gadasaxadebisgan gansxvavebiT, momaval TaobasaTvis didi tvirTi iqneba, romelTac gauzrdian gadasaxadebs am valis dasabruneblad. klasikosebi miiCneven, rom saxelmwifo valis zrda momavali Taobebis `gaZarcvis~ tolfasia. Tumca am Sefasebis dros erTmaneTisagan unda ganvasxvaoT Sida (internaluri) da sagareo (eqsternaluri) saxelmwifo vali. am ukanasknelis SemTxvevaSi saxelmwifo vali marTlac tvirTi iqneba momavali TaobebisaTvis. Tumca es midgoma ar vrceldeba iseT saxelmwifo valze, rodesac qveyanas sakuTari moqalaqeebis vali aqvs. maSasadame isini sakuTari Tavis movaleebi arian. keinzianelebi

42

“tvirTs” Semdeg makroekonomikur ganmartebas udeben safuZvlad: tvirTi aris erToblivi moxmarebis Semcireba. isini ganmartaven, rom daxurul ekonomikaSi sruli dasaqmebis pirobebSi damatebiTi saxelmwifo xarjebis dasafinanseblad SesaZlebelia mxolod mimdinare resursebis gamoyeneba da mas ar SeuZlia imaze meti saqonlisa da momsaxurebiT sargebloba vidre awarmoebs dRes, ase rom moxmarebis Semcireba ar aris damokidebuli biujetis dafinansebis moTodze. Tu upiratesoba mieniWeba saxazino obligaciebs, maSin momaval Taobas mouwevs gadasaxadebis saxiT procentebis gadaxda, Tumca es ar gamoiwvevs erToblivi moxmarebis Semcirebas, radgan isini transfertuli gadasaxadebis formas miigebs da mokroekonomikuri efeqti ar eqneba.

Tumca a.modiliani sasicocxlo ciklis Teoriis farglebSi ganixilavs Taobebze tvirTis gadakisrebis SemTxvevas saSinao saxelmwifo valis SemTxvevaSi. misi azriT biujetis sesxebis saSualebiT dafinanseba iwvevs kapitalis maragebis Semcirebas. yoveli adamiani mTels Tavis Semosavals mTeli Tavisi sicocxlis manZilze moixmars. Tuki mosaxleobis zrdisa da teqnologiuri progresis tempebi nulis toli iqneba, maSin aqtivebis saerTo moculoba mudmivi iqneba. Tumca es aqtivebi mudmivad icvlian mesakuTreebs. Tuki izrdeba saxelmwifos xarjebi, romelic sesxis saSualebiT finansdeba, es ar moqmedebs danazogebze, Tumca mcirdeba kerZo kapitalis moculoba, romelic permanentul saxes iZens. maSasadame momavali Taobebi Semcirebuli kapitali maragebis pirobebSi icxovreben. Tumca midgoma rigi naklovanebebiT xasiaTdeba. masSi ar gaiTvaliswineba faqtorTa fasebis cvlileba da saxelmwifo valze procentebis gadaxda.

ganvixiloT saxelmwifos Sida vali solou-svanis ekonomikuri

zrdis modelSi. SemovitanoT Semdegi aRniSvnebi: T gadasaxadebi erT

muSaxelze, g saxelmwifos xarjebi erT muSaxelze, B saxelmwofo

obligaciebis mTliani moculoba, b saxelmwifo obligaciebi erT muSaxelze. sasesxo kapitalis bazarze klasikuri wonasworobis modeli Semdegi saxiT SegviZlia CavweroT:

)11.2())((L

BKTrbgkfs

gantoleba (2.9) da (2.11)12 –dan martivi gardaqmnebis Semdeg SegviZlia CavweroT ekonomikuri zrdis sabaziso gantoleba, gadasaxadebisa da saxelmwifo obligaciebis gaTvaliswinebiT:

)12.2()(L

BsTsrbsgnkksfk

saxelmwifos sabiujeto SezRudva iqneba:

)13.2(TrbgL

B

t

b

12

L

KL

BTrbgkfs ))((

Tu tolobis orive mxares gavamravlebTK

L maSin

KBnkrbkTgkksf

LL

KK

kk //)(/)(

saidanac, vRebulobT gantoleba (12)-s.

43

romelic gamoxatavs rom, garda egzogenurad gansazRvruli saxelmwifo xarjebisa, g sa, saxelmwifo biujetis saxarjo nawilSi

Sedis rb saxelmwifo valze gadasaxdeli procentebi. amasTan mdgradi

mdgomareobis pirobebSi gvaqvs SezRudva: ,0b saidanac ,nBB amitom gantoleba (2.13)-is gaTvaliswinebiT gveqneba:

)14.2()( Tgbnr

(2.12), (2.13) da (2.14) gantolebebis gaTvaliswinebiT SegviZlia CavweroT:

romlis

mixedviTac Tu ,0b maSin k mcirdeba. nax.2.9–dan Cans rom saxelmwifo valis arsebobis SemTxvevaSi gvaqvs ori mdgradi

mdgomareoba - *1k da *2k Sesabamisad 1C da 2C wertilebSi. lokaluri

stabilurobis pirobidan nkfs )( gamomdinare 1C warmoadgens

lokalurad mdgrad, xolo 1C lokalurad aramdgrad wertils. Tu

(2.15) gantolebas gavawarmoebT b s mimarT:

nfs

sn

db

dk

)1(

miviRebT, rom erTi erTeuliT valis zrda amcirebs kapitalis

moculobas erTi erTeuliT, Tuki nf anu, roca kapitalis maragebi `oqros wesiT~ gansazRvrul doneze imyofeba. Tuki kapitalis maragebi ufro dabal donezea, vidre es `oqros wesiT~ aris gansazRvruli, lokalurad mdgrad mdgomareobaSi kapitalis maragebi ufro metadSemcirdeba. aRniSnuli midgoma asabuTebs, rom mimdinare periodSi Sida saxelmwifo valis zrdac amcirebs momavalSi ekonomikis zrdis temps.

)15.2()1()( snbnkksfk

k

sf C

k* k1*

nk

y

k2*

C2

C1

nk+nb(1-s)

nax. 2.9

44

ekonomistebs Soris arsebos mosazreba saxelmwifo biujetisaTvis garkveuli SezRudvebis dawesebis Sesaxeb, kerZod yvelaze radikaluri aris yovelwliurad dabalansebuli biujetis idea, aris agreTve moTxovna saxelmwifo biujetis deficitisa da saxelmwifo valis zRvrebis Sesaxeb. Tumca arsebobs ciklurad dabalansebuli biujetis idea, romlis mixedviTac dacemis fazaSi biujetis Semosavlebis Semcirebis pirobebSi mizanSewonilia saxsrebis sesxeba, xolo ekonomikuri aqtivobis gamococxlebis fazaSi biujetis proficitis pirobebSi valis momsaxureba. magram mimaCnia, rom fiskalur politikaSi sagadasaxado politikis sixistis nivelirebisaTvis kargi saSualebaa ufro moqnili saxelmwifos xarjebis dafinansebis politika, rac ekonomikur danakargebs amcirebs.

keinzianelebi klasikosebisagan gansxvavebiT ekonomikis koniunqturaze fiskaluri politikis zemoqmedebis gansxvavebul meqanizms gvTavazoben. klasikosebis SemTxvevaSi fiskaluri politika saojaxo meurneobebis keTildReobis doneze da erTobliv miwodebaze gavleniT cvlida ekonomikis koniunqturis pirobebs. keinzianuri midgomiT ki fiskaluri politika xarjebisa da gadasaxadebis multiplikatoriT axdens gavlenas ekonomikis koniunqturaze.

keinzis e.w. `investiciebis multiplikatoris~ idea eyrdnoba `efeqturi moTxovnis~ Teorias da `ZiriTad fsiqologiur kanons~, romlis mixedviTac SesaZlebelia moTxovnis stimulireba da rom moTxovna, danazogebisaken adamianis fsiqologiiT ganpirobebuli midrekilebis gamo, izrdeba gacilebiT ufro nela, vidre Semosavlebi

– amas moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba )(MPC ewodeba. swored amaSia keinzis meTodologiuri midgoma, romlis Tanaxmadac arasruli dasaqmebis, arasruli realizaciisa da ekonomikaSi uwonasworobis mizezis kvlevisas mniSvneloba `sazogadoebriv fsiqologiur qcevas~ unda mieniWos. keinzis azriT Tu sazogadoebis fsiqologiuri midrekileba zustad iseTia, rogorc zomoT ganxiluli, maSin SeiZleba CaiTvalos, rom arsebobs kononi, romlis Tanaxmadac investiciebTan pirdapir kavSirSi myofma dasaqmebis gafarToebam unda moaxdinos mastimulirebeli gavlena samomxmareblo dovlaTis mwarmoebel dargebze da gamoiwvios dasaqmebis zrda. keinzi Tavis `zogad TeoriaSi~ xarjvis sargeblianobaze amaxvilebs yuradRebas. maSasadame, keinzianur midgomaSi ekonomikuri krizisisa da depresiis dros efeqtiani moTxovnis gadidebis saukeTeso saSualebaa saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda (saxelmwifo xarjebis sesxiT dafinanseba) maTi azriT, mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlis zrdas SeuZlia gaaaqtiuros gamouyenebeli sawarmoo SesaZleblobebi gazardos dasaqmeba da xeli Seuwyos ekonomikuri koniunqturis gamococxlebas. Tavad ekonomika saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdis SemTxvevaSi multiplikatoris sididiT

gaizrdeba ))1/(( MPCGY , romlis saerTo efeqti da TviTon

multiplikatoris sidide moxmarebisadmi zRvrul midrekilebazea damokilebuli. saxelmwifo xarjebisagan gansxvavebiT ufro naklebi efeqtiT xasiaTdeba gadasaxadebis multiplikatori

)))1/((( TMPCMPCY , romelic gadasaxadebis SemcirebiT

gankargvadi Semosavlis gazrdiT astimulirebs erTobliv moTxovnas.

45

saxelmwifo xarjebis multiplikatoris efeqti, grZeldeba manam sanam fasebisa da saprocento ganakveTis koreqtirebis procesi ar dasruldeba, rasac moklevadian periodSi kerZo Sida investiciebis gamodevnis efeqti, xolo grZelvedian periodSi warmoebis potenciur doneze dabruneba mohyveba. klasikosebisagan gansxvavebiT keinzianelebi miiCneven, rom es procesi sakmaod nela mimdinareobs da SesaZloa ramdenime welsac gagrZeldes. Tumca grZelvadian periodSi ekonomika ubrundeba Tavis sawyis mdgomareobas. es politika, Cvens mier ganxilul monetaristul TeoriaSi monetaruli Sokis msgavsad grZelvadian periodSi, fasebis donis zrdas ganapirobebs da Tavisi SinaarsiT erToblivi moTxovnis zrdiT gamowveul inflacias warmoadgens. `axali klasikuri~ skolis warmomadgenlebi ewinaaRmdegebian xarjebis multiplikatoris efeqtis arsebobas da saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdis efeqts, mis organul da ara meqanikur Sinaars ukavSireben. maT yuradReba sakuTriv xarjebis efeqtianobaze da mis struqturaze gadaaqvT da gansazRvraven, rom mxolod saxelmwifos iseT investiciebs SeuZliaT dadebiTi efeqtis motana, rogoricaa investiciebi ganaTlebaze, infrastruqturaSi da a.S.

gadasaxadebis Semcirebis efeqts keinzianelebi ekonomikis eqspansiur politikad ganixilaven da fiqroben, rom man erToblivi moTxovnis waxaliseba unda gamoiwvios. am mosazrebiT keinzianelebi klasikosebs upirispirdebian, romlebic amtkiceben, rom gadasaxadebis Semcireba gamiwvevs ara erToblivi miTxovnis waxalisebas, aramed sazogadoebis keTildReobis zrdas, danazogebis zrdas da kapitalis maragebis zrdas, rac gazrdis warmoebas da erTobliv miwodebas.

keinzianur sagadasaxado multiplikatoris ideis sawinaaRmdego azrs aviTareben miwodebis Teoriis warmomadgenlebi. maTi mosazreba eyrdnoba laferis efeqts, romlis mixedviTac gadasaxadi cvlis ekonomikaSi warmoebis stimulirebis xarisxs da zrdis erTobliv miwodebas. ekonomikaSi arsebobs iseTi e.w. erToblivi sagadasaxado ganakveTi, romlis pirobebSic warmoebis moculoba maqsimums aRwevs saqme imaSia, rom aRniSnul optimalur sagadasaxado ganakveTamde gadasaxadis ganakveTis zrda dadebiTi efeqtis matarebelia, Semdgom ki efeqti uaryofiTi xdeba, radganac is amcirebs warmoebis stimuls. laferis es hipoTeza eyrdnoba mosazrebas, rom SedarebiT dabali gadasaxadebi gazrdian Sromis, investiciebis, inovaciebis, saqmiani riskebis miRebis SesaZleblobas, rac TavisTavad gamoiwvevs erovnuli warmoebis da erovnuli Semosavlis zrdas. e.balackis mosazrebiT arsebobs ori rigis laferis sagadasaxado ganakveTi. pirveli, rodesac warmoebis moculoba aRwevs maqsimums da meore, roca saxelmwifo biujeti aRwevs maqsimums. aqedan gamomdinare dgeba saxelmwifos optimaluri zomis problema.

Cemi azriT saxelmwifos ekonomikaSi monawileobas gadasaxadebis saSualebiT Tan axlavs kidev erTi efeqti. rogorc viciT nebismieri saxeobis dovlaTs gaaCnia, rogorc miwodebis, ise moTxovnis kategoria. aseve sazogadoebrivi dovlaTi, romelsac saxelmwifo qmnis xasiaTdeba am ori kategoriis gavleniT, xolo gadasaxadi sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis safasuria.A fasiA ki Amudmivad icvleba moTxovna miwodebis cvlilebis Sesabamisad. ase, rom sagadasaxado sistemis mouqneloba - swored ,,mudmivad” fiqsirebuli gadasaxadi,

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drois garkveul periodSi iwvevs ekonomikur ryevebs. aseTi situacia SeiZleba SevadaroT bazarze saqonlis ZaldatanebiT SeZenas, rac raTqmaunda azaralebs ekonomikis yvela seqtors, radganac es resursebis araracionalur xarjvas niSnavs. gadasaxadebi Tavis SinaarsiT amcireben gankargvad Semosavals. Semosavali da mogeba bazarze mniSvnelovan sainformacio funqcias asruleben da xels uwyoben resursebis efeqtian ganawilebas. xelovnurad maTi Semcireba ki amaxinjebs ekonomikuri ganviTarebis tendencias. Tumca arsebobs mosazreba, rom yvela faqtoruli Semosavlis Tanabrad dabegvris SemTxvevaSi gadasaxadi neitraluri iqneba. Tumca realur ekonomikaSi es ase ar xdeba, amasTan ekonomikis sxvadasxva subieqtebi gansxvavebulad reagireben gadasaxadebze. amitom nebismier SemTxvevaSi mas mxolod erTi efeqti eqneba – resursebis gadanawileba im dargebidan, sadac momxmarebeli isurvebda mis gamoyenebas iq, sadac mTavrobas surs. maRali gadsaxadebi (aq igulisxmeba saxelmwifos zomac ekonomikaSi) amcireben ra mogebis normas ekonomikaSi, amcireben konkurencias `kerZo dovlaTis~ warmoebis seqtorSi. aseve maRali gadasaxadebi xdeba inveticiebis araefeqturi dabandebis mizezi. kerZod `investiciebi miemarTeba im proeqtebis dasafinanseblad, romlebic SedarebiT daculia gadasaxadebisagan da ara im dargebSi, rimlebic ufro momgebiani iqneboda, rom ara gadasaxadebi. gadasaxadebi adamianebs ubiZgeben daxarjon fuli ZviradRirebul, magram gadasaxadebisagan Tavisufal saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenaze: ufro ZviradRirebul ofisebze, vidre es saWiroa, mivlinebiT SeniRbul mogzaurobebze, samsaxurebriv avtotransportze ... sagadasaxado kanonmdebloba astimulirebs investiciebs im mimarTulebiT, razec sxva SemTxvevaSi adamianebi ar daxarjavdnen sakuTar resursebs”13 . maSasadame saxelmwifos monawileobis zoma, xarisxi, dabegvra da dabegvris sistema iwvevs ekonomkaSi koniunqturul ryevebs, amcirebs mSp-s, sagadasaxado Semosavlebs, astimulirebs inflaciur procesebs da sxva.

saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politikis efeqturobidan gamomdinare klasikosebi emxrobian saxelmwifo xarjebis Semcirebas da saxelmwifos politikis sferos SezRudvas. magaliTad am konteqstSi rusi ekonomisti a.ilarionovi14 gansazRvravs, rom saxelmwifo xarjebis gansazRvris kriteriumi unda iyos namdvili `sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis~ warmoeba, romelsac moixmars mTeli sazogadoeba da ara sazogadoebis garkveuli jgufebi anda calkeuli individebi. mis mier Catarebuli kvlevis mixedviT arsebobs kidec korelacia saxelmwifos `zomasa” da ekonomikur zrdas Soris, romelic laferis efeqtis statistikur dasabuTebas warmoadgens (Tu laferis efeqtis interpretacias movaxdenT, rogorc saxelmwifos zomisa da ekonomikur zrdas Soris damokidebulebis). misi azriT saxelmwifom unda itvirTos Semdegi sazogadoebrivi funqciebi: erovnuli usafrTxoeba, sagareo politika, sazogadoebrivi wesrigis dacva, sabaziso jandacva, saSualo ganaTleba, kulturuli Rirebulebebis dacva, fundamenturi

13 ix. Боуз Д. Либертарианство. История. Принципы. Политика. Ч.,2004. c. 194-195. 14 Илларионов А. Бремя государства. Вопросы экономики. 1996. № 9. C. 24—25. Илларионов А., Пивоварова Н.

Размеры государства и экономический рост. Вопросы экономики. 2002. № 9. C.18—45.

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mecnierebebis mxardaWera da saxelmwifo valis momsaxureba. yvela danarCeni saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis privatizacia unda moxdes.

vfiqrob, rom fiskaluri politikis ganxorcielebis procesis dros saxelmwifos wilis Semcireba, misi mouqnelebis gamo, Seamcirebs ekonomikur procesebSi misi monawileobis uaryofiT efeqtebs. agreTve vfiqrob, rom sagadasaxado sistemis stabiluroba mniSvnelovania ekonomikuri egentebis mier swori molodinebis formirebisaTvis, xolo fiskaluri politikis moqniloba mTlianad biujetirebis process da biujetis sesxiT dafinansebas unda daekisros, rac xSir SemTxvevaSi asec xdeba. ar mimaCnia, rom aucilebelia biujetis deficitisa da saxelmwifo valisaTvis SemzRudveli zRvrebis daweseba radgan, aseTi zRvrebis dadgenis kriteriumebi arc Tu obieqturia. magaliTad, ratom SeiZleba saxelmwifo valisaTvis kriteriumi, misi zeda zRvris TvalsazrisiT, iyos mSp-s 60% da ara 50% an 40%. konkurentul process SeuZlia rigi iseTi funqciebi, rogoricaa jandacva, ganaTleba da sociluri usafrTxoeba ufro ukeTesad marTos, magram, radgan aRniSnuli dargebi mWidro kavSirSia egelitarul dovlaTTan saxelmwifo manawileoba sazogadoebrivi monawileobis TvalsazrisiT strategiul xasiaTs atarebs.

2.3. ekonomikuri politikis formirebis problemebi

mTavrobis politikis gavlena saxelmwifos ekonomikur ganviTarebaze Zalian farTo sakiTxTa speqtrs moicavs. amitom Cvens yuradRebas mocemul qveTavSi uSvalod sazogadoebrivi arCevanisa da politikuri gadawyvetilebis procesze SevaCerebT. winamorbed TavebSi Cven am sakiTxebs nawilobriv SevexeT kidec. makroekonomikuri politikis formireba garda ekonomikuri xasiaTis problemebisa bevri sxva gare faqtorebis zemoqmedebas gulisxmobs.

imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom makroekonomikis politikis formirebaze gadawyvetilebas adamiani – subieqti Rebulobs, cxadia yvela gadawyvetilebis miReba ar iTvaliswinebs makroekonomikuri politikis miznebis instrumentebisa da saxelmwifos ekonomikuri funqciebis srulyofil analizs da xSir SemTxvevaSi miRebuli gadawyvetilebebi garkveul wilad subieqturia, anu ar jdeba im modelSi, rasac makroekonomikuri politikis Teoria sTavazobs saxelmwifos.15

`sazogadoebrivi arCevnis Teoria~, romelic XX-is 50-ian wlebSi Camoyalibda swavlobs swored politikuri gadawyvetilebis miRebis processa da mis gavlenas ekonomikaze. “sazogadoebrivi arCevanis Teoriis” mTavari wanamZRvari aris daSveba: miuxedavad imisa, rom ekonomikuri procesebis buneba uzrunvelyofs adamianis mogebis maqsimalur zrdas, romlis modelis kopireba meqanikurad ekonomikuri sferodan politikur sferoSi ar SeiZleba, radgan am

15 ix. xaduri n. ekonomikuri politikis formirebis Taviseburebani postkomunisturi transformaciis pirobebSi. … Tb, 2000.gv.88.

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ukanasknelisaTvis stimuli arcTu damaxasiaTebelia sabazro qcevis analizi SeiZleba gamoviyenoT nebismier moRvaweobis sferoSi, sadac adamiani akeTebs arCevans. adamianebi politikur sarbielze moqmedeben piradi interesebidan gamomdinare. sazogadoebrivi arCevanis Teoria swavlobs im gzebsa da xerxebs, romelTa meSveobiTac adamianebi saxelmwifo dawesebulebebs sakuTari miznebisaTvis iyeneben.

racionalurad moazrovne politikosebi cdiloben miiRon iseTi gadawyvetilebebi, romlebic moemsaxurebian maTi prestiJis zrdas da uzrunvelyofen arCevnebSi gamarjvebas. aRniSnuli Teoriis Sesabamisad individualizmi aucilebel da mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs, rogorc kerZo aseve saxelmwifo samsaxurSi.16

Teoriis safuZvels warmoadgens, rom Tavis qcevaSi Cveulebrivi adamianebis msgavsad politikosebi da Cinovnikebi uwinares yovlisa mis winaSe mdgari miznebis miRwevis optimizaciis poziciidan gamodian. aseTi miznebia sargeblianobis, simdidrisa da Semosavlebis maqsimizacia. miuxedavad amisa qcevis motivebi gavlenas ar axdens barzis funqcionirebaze, ramdenadac individebi ver acnobiereben, rom individualur arCevans mivyavarT socialur Sedegebamde. j.biuqeneni ambobda, rom iseve rogorc bazari “politika individTa Soris gacvlis rTuli sistemaa, romelSic individebi miiswarfvian sakuTari piradi interesebis dakmayofilebisaken, radgan maTi realizacia Cveulebrivi sabazro wesiT ar SeuZliaT. aq ar aris sxva interesi garda piradisa. bazarze adamianebi cvlian vaSls forToxalSi, xolo politikaSi Tanaxmani arian gadaixadon gadasaxadebi im dovlaTis sanacvlod, romelic sWirdeba yvelas, “saxanZro dacvidan sasamarTlomde”~.17

sazogadoebrivi arCevanis TeoriaSi erTerTi mTavari problema aris e.w. xmis micemis paradoqsi (u.kondorse). xmis micemis paradoqsi gulisxmobs, rom SeiZleba upiratesobas sxva gadawyvetilebas aZlevdes, magram sul sxva gadawyvetilebas dauWiros mxari: anu sazogadoebriv da arCeviT organoebSi gamoricxulia racionaluri midgoma da upiratesobis tranzitulobis principic irRveva. rasac xmis micemis paradoqsi ewodeba. problemis arsi ufro daakonkreta da ganavrco, nobelis premiis lauriatma q. eroum, romelic ambobs, rom xmis micemis paradoqsi _ esaa winaaRmdegoba, romelic vlindeba gadawyvetilebisAxmaTaAumravlesobiT miRebaSi, rodesac umravlesobis mier miRebuli gadawyvetileba ver avlens ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT namdvil upiratesobebs.

amasTan problemas isic warmoadgens, rom sazogadoebis wevrebs uWirT realurad Seafason maTi xarjebi da is sargebeli, romelsac iReben saxelmwifosagan. diferencialuri da mravalferovani gadasaxadebi, sxvadasxva saxelmwifo programebi, xSirad, romelTa arc sazogadoebrivi arc mizani da arc pirdapiri sargebeli ar gaaCniaT.

marTalia Cven xelisuflebas garkveuli vadiT virCevT da vcvliT, magram ramdenad ergeba demokratiuli arCevanis Sedegi

16 ix. Нуреев Р.М. Основи экономическоо теорий. Вопрхы экономики №7 1996 .c. 130.

17 ix. Бьюкенен Дж., конституция экономической политики. Вопрхы экономики №6 1994 .c. 108.

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Tundac umravlesobis survilebs? riTi gansxvavdeba esa Tu is mTavroba, erTmaneTisagan? magaliTad erTi kandidati gvTavazobs dabal gadasaxadebsa da samxedro xarjebis gazrdas, xolo meore dabalansebul biujetsa da saxelmwofo savaldebulo socialuri programebis gazrdas. dauSvaT Tqven gsurT dabali gadasaxadebi da ar gsurT saxelmwifo savaldebulo socialuri programebi. amas `porTfeluri garigebis problemas~ uwodeben.

maSasadame, politikuri arCevani SezRudulia, vinaidan amomrCeveli SeiZleba SezRuduli iyos garkveuli cenziT, kandidatis arCevisas. swored amitom adamianTa qceva xasiaTdeba e.w. `racionaluri uvicobiT” – adamianebi cdiloben ra sakuTari sargeblis maqsimizacias, isini TavinT resursebs xarjaven im sagnebis Secvlaze da gaumjobesebaze, romlis Secvlac SesaZleblad da sargeblis momtanad miaCniaT. dauSvaT adamianma gadawyvita sakuTari arCevanis gasakeTeblad Seiswavlos romelime kandidatis politikuri programa amisaTvis man unda Seiswavlos jandacvis, ekonomikis, biurokratiis da sxva sakiTxebi. Semdeg unda gadavides sakuTriv kandidatis programis Seswavlaze, romelic, rogorc irkveva arc Tu konkretulia. bolos is arkvevs, rom SemoTavazebuli paketis sakiTxebi mas ar moswons. Tumca is wyets mxari dauWiros mocemul kandidats imis safuZvelze, rom misTvis metnaklebad misaRebia jandacvisadmi kandidatis pozicia. Tan Sansi rom is gavlenas moaxdens kandidatis arCevaze Zalian dabalia. Tu kandidati gaimarjvebs is ukve parlamentis, mTeli biurokratiuli aparatis da sxvadasxva interesTa jgufebis winaaRmdegobis winaSe aRmoCndeba, romelTac mocemul sakiTxze gansxvavebuli xedva aqvT. aRmoCndeba, rom amomrCeveli motyuebuli darCa. xvdebian ra yovelive amas, amomrCevlebi ar uTmoben dros saxelmwifo politikis Seswavlas.18 sazogadoebis es nawili ver xedavs azrs, rom miiRos politikur procesebSi monawileoba. arsebobs Taviseburi zRvruli efeqti, es aris sargeblis minimaluri mniSvneloba, romelic unda ganxorcieldes, raTa amomrCevelma miiRos monawileoba politikur procesSi. roca igi imaze dabalia vidre es saWiroa, amomrCeveli cdilobs gaeqces Tavis moqalaqeobriv movaleobas. magram Tu ki amomrCevels politikuri procesi miscems ufro farTo arCevans konkretuls sakiTxebTan dakavSirebiT magaliTad, samedicino dazRvevis ramodenime variants, am SemTxvevaSi man SeiZleba dauTmos dro mis Seswavlas da arCevanic miuaxlovdes racionalurs Tanac Seamsubuqebs porTfeluri garigebis problemas.

racionaluri amomrCevlebi ki cdiloben minimaluri danaxarjebiT moaxdinon gavlena politikosTa gadawyvetilebebze. dainteresebuli amomrCevlebi, romlebic erTiandebian analogiuri interesis mqone sxva amomrCevlebTan ayalibeben TavanT mosazrebebs, romlebsac maTTvis yofna-aryofnis mniSvneloba aqvT. isini mimarTaven yvela zomas maTTvis saWiro gadawyvetilebebis misaRebad. atareben mitingebs, awyoben sajaro ganxilvebs, SimSiloben, ikeraven pirebs da ra Tqma unda iZlevian qrTamebs. yvela is meTodi, romelic gamoiyeneba

18 ix. Боуз Д. Либертарианство. История. Принципы. Политика. Ч.,2004. c. 215-216.

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mosaxleobis SezRuduli, raodenobis mier sakuTari interesiT ganpirobebuli gadawyvetilebis misaRebad cnobilia lobizmis saxelwodebiT.

cxadia qrTams ar iZlevian, Tu ar arian darwmulebulni, rom miRebuli gadawyvetilebis Semdeg, gaweuli xarjebi erTi aTad daifareba. anu xarjebs gadawyvetilebis miRebaze gaswevs mTeli sazogadoeba, xolo mogebulni darCebian mxolod gadawyvetilebis mimRebni da dainteresebuli pirebi.

swored aseTi qmedebiT Tu aixsneba is paradoqsebi, romlebic TiTqmis yvela saxelmwifos ekonomikur politikaSi gvxvdeba. es exeba sagadasaxado Tu sxva saxis SeRavaTebs, transfertebis gamoyofas regulirebis gansakuTrebul wesebs da sxva.

lobizmiT, mxolod is fena ar aris dainteresebuli, romlisTvisac saWiro gadawyvetilebebis miRebac xdeba. lobizmi xels aZlevs xelisuflebasac. am gziT xdeba momavali arCevnebis dasafinanseblad saxsrebis moZieba.

lobizmis gamovlena gvxvdeba ara marto sakanonmdeblo, aramed aRmasrulebel xelisuflebaSic, romelzec damokidebulia gadawyvetilebis Sesruleba. cxadia ganze arc sasamarTlo xelisufleba da e.w. meoTxe xelisufleba _ masmedia rCeba.

sakanonmdeblo xelisuflebaSi farTodaa gavrcelebuli gadawyvetilebis miReba logrolingis anu `xmebiT vaWrobis~ gziT. deputatebi erTmaneTs “ucvlian xmebs” maTTvis saWiro kanonproeqtis mxardaWeris sanacvlod.

“xmebiT vaWroba” yovelTvis uaryofiT movlenad ar iTvleba radgan am gziT xSirad resursebis optimaluri gadanawilebaa SesaZlebeli. Tumca aris SemTxvevebi, roca am formiT izrdeba saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti da erovnul ekonomikaSi arasasurveli procesebis dawyebis safuZveli xdeba.

logrolingis klasikuri formaa “qonis kasri” anu kanonebis erT paketad ganxilva. kanonproeqtis misaRebad mimdinareobs mimdinareobs parlamentSi xmebis Segroveba, maT mier sxva kanonebis mxardasaWerad da vidre ar iqnebian darwmunebulni, rom kanonproeqti miRebuli iqneba mas umateben da umateben qons, anu sxva deputatebis winadadebebs. procesebis marTvaze zemoqmedebis garemoeba Zalian seriozuli dividendebis momtani SeiZleba aRmoCndes. “amitomac aRniSnuli procesebi bevr cnobil biznesmens aiZulebs kerZo sakmaod warmatebuli saqme deputatis, miT ufro ministris savarZelSi gacvalos”.19

makroekonomikuri politikis aRsrulebis procesSi calke unda visaubroT biurokratiaze, radgan masze didadaa damokidebuli miRebuli gadawyvetilebis saTanadod Sesruleba. miuxedavad imisa, rom biurokratias erTi SexedviT amomrCevelTan Sexeba ara aqvs, igi mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli im jgufebTan romlebic garkveul gadawyvetilebebs lobireben. ekonomikuri biurokratia sazogadoebrivi arCevanis Teoriis erTerTi nawilia. sakanonmdeblo organoebi qmnian aRmasrulebel organoebs, xolo isini Tavis mxriv qmnian saxelmwifos

19 ix. xaduri n. ekonomikuri politikis formirebis Taviseburebani postkomunisturi transformaciis pirobebSi. Tb, 2000.gv.95.

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farTo aparats, saxelmwifos mravalmxrivi funqciebis Sesasruleblad, romlebic amomrCevelTa interesebTan TankveTaSia. amomrCeveli ki, romelic irCevs deputatebs aRmoCndeba biurokratiis gavlenis qveS.

biurokratia saxelmwifos SigniT viTardeba, rogorc ierarqiuli struqtura da aucilebelia saxelmwifo programebis realizaciisaTvis. biurokratia ar aris dakavSirebuli piradpir amomrCevlis intersebTan, is emsaxureba pirvel rigSi, sakanonmdeblo organos, sxvadasxva organoebs da aRmasrulebeli xelisuflebis ganStoebebs. Cinovnikebi ara mxolod axorcieleben kanonebis miRebas, aramed aqtiurad monawileoben maT momzadebaSi. amitom isini arc Tu iSviaTad pirdapir kavSirSi arian gansakuTrebuli interesis mqone jgufebTan.

biurokratia ufrTxis sazogadoebasTan konfliqts. aq gansakuTrebuli interesis jgufebi SeiZleba aRmoCndnen, rogorc maT sawinaaRmdego banakSi, aseve mogvevlinon maT mxsnelebadac. biurokratiis nawili piradi gamorCenisaTvis iyenebs sazogadoebrivi da kvazisazogadoebrivi dovlaTis sawarmoeblad gamoyofil saxsrebs. mniSvnelovani erovnuli programebis ganxorcielebidanac didi nawili maTi da mfarvelebis jibeSi ileqeba. albaT amas unda mieweros is faqti, rom Cinovnikebi saxelmwifo samsaxuridan wasvlis Semdeg, xSirad sakmaod warmatebul biznesmenebad mogvevlinebian xolme, am praqtikam, “mbrunavi karebebis sistemis”20saxeli miiRo.

Tu kerZo firmaSi damatebiTi adamianis dasaqmebis aucileblobas firmis saqmianoba da mogebis zrdis aucilebloba ganapirobebs, saxelmwifo samsaxurSi aseTi kriteriumebi ar arsebobs da amdenad biurokratiis gafarToeba yovelgvari kanonzomierebis gareSe xdeba. izrdeba saxelmwifo aparati da izrdeba maTi ricxvi, vinc politikur rentas~ eZebs.21 politikuri rentis miReba ki gulisxmobs politikuri proeqtis meSveobiT ekonomikuri rentis miRebas. aRniSnuli Teoriis Sesabamisad, rogorc kerZo pirebi cdiloben TavisTvis sasargeblo racionalur egoizmze damyarebuli gadawyvetilebis miRebas, aseve Cinovnikebi cdiloben sazogadoebis xarjze miiRon materialuri “anazRaureba~. amasTan biurokratebi, romlebic ekonomikur procesebSi monawileoben, cdiloben iseTi gadawyvetilebebis miRebas, romlis uaryofiTi mxareebi da xarjebi erTi SexedviT ar Cans, xolo Sedegi male iqneba, rogorc sazogadoebisaTvis, aseve gansakuTrebiT gadawyvetilebebis mimRebi iniciatorebisaTvis.

v. neskereni,22 romelic biurokratiis qcevis problemas da mis ekonomikur politikaze gavlenas swavlobs gvTavazobs models, romlis mixedviTac saxelmwifo aparatis burokratia sakuTari saqmianobidan, romelic sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis warmoebasTan aris dakavSirebuli iRebs ori saxis sargebels: misi Tanamdebobis Sesabamis

Semosavals W da sxvadasxva arafulad sargebels P , romelic ukavSirdeba mis Tanamdebobas. raSic igulisxmeba ofisis saqonli da momsaxureba, Tavisufali dro, socialuri da fizikuri sargebeli, pativiscema sazoadoebaSi da sxva. amasTan vuSvebT, rom parlamenti,

20

ix. Нуреев Р.М. Основи экономическоо теорий Вопрхы экономики. №7 1996 c.145 21 ix. xaduri n. ekonomikuri politikis formirebis Taviseburebani postkomunisturi transformaciis pirobebSi. Tb. 2000 gv.96. 22

ix. Нисканен В. А. БЮРОКРАТЫ И ПОЛИТИКИ

52

romelic biurokratias umtkicebs biujets, axasiaTebs sazogadoebis Sualeduri amomrCevlis moTxovnas, sazodagoebaSi sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis xarjebi da misgan miRebuli sargebeli Tanabrad nawildeba da biurokratias ar SeuZlia optimalur doneze meti dovlaTis warmoeba. CavweroT biurokratis sargeblianobis funqcia da `jildos~ struqturis gantoleba:

)18.2()(

)17.2()(

)16.2(

33

22

11

3

2

1

CBQP

CBQW

PWU

sadac, Q biuros gamoSveba (sazogadoebrivi dovlaTi), B

maqsimaluri biujeti, romelsac daamtkicebs parlamenti da romelsac

warudgens biuros, C minimaluri xarjebi, romelic biuros sWirdeba

gamoSvebisaTvis, )( CB e.w. biuros `diskretuli biujeti,” rac igive `politikuri rentaa”. biurokrati cdilobs daarwmunos parlamenti, rogorc sponsori, rom mas rac SeiZleba maqsimaluri biujeti gamouyos, xolo sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis gamoSvebis moculoba swored biujetzea damokidebuli. vinaidan biuro moqmedebs racionalurad is cdilobs `diskretuli biujetis~ maqsimizirebas.

aRsaniSnavia, rom saxelmwifo biurokratiisaTvis 2

koeficienti dabalia vidre ,,, 332 koeficiebtebi, radgan mas ar

SeuZlia miiRos “diskretuli biujetidan” fuladi saxiT sargebeli. Tuki (2.17) da (2.18) gantolebebs CavsvamT (2.16)-Si da gavamartivebT

miviRebT:

)19.2()( CBQU

sadac, ;,, 3121132111

3

1

2

Tu 2)( bQaQQB da

2)( dQcQQC maSin `diskretuli biujeti~ iqneba:

)20.2()()( 2QdbQcaCB

Tu (2.20) gantolebas CavsvamT (2.19) gantolebaSi moviRebT: ))()(( 2QdbQcaQU

sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis mimarT biurokratis sargeblis maqsimizaciis pirobidan gveqneba:

db

caQ

2

biurokratis qcevis sazRvrebis dasadgenad ganvixiloT ori

ukiduresi SemTxveva: pirveli, roca 0 anu roca biurokratis mier

sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis gamoSveba ar cvlis arc mis Semosavals da

arc mis arafulad sargebels. am SemTxvevaSi )/()(2/1min dbcaQ -

gamoSvebis es moculoba iqneba gamoSvebis nonimaluri moculoba, romelsac biurokrati daTanxmdeba biujetis nebismieri donis

pirobebSi. meore, roca 0 anu roca biurokratis mier

53

sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis gamoSvebisas ar SeuZlia miiTvisos diskreciuli biujeti arc Semosavlis da arc sxva arafuladi sargeblis saxiT. maSasadame es is SemTxvevaa roca magaliTad parlaments SeuZlia gansazRvros sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis

optimaluri done. am SemTxvevaSi )/()(max dbcaQ - gamoSvebis es

moculoba iqneba gamoSvebis maqsimaluri moculoba (nax.2.10).

Tu dauSvebdiT, rom sazogadoebaSi sazogadoebrivi dovlaTidan

miRebuli sargebeli da xarjebi araTanabrad nawildeba, maSin maxQ ar

iqneba sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis optimaluri done, xolo minQ

SemTxveviT SeiZleba daemTxves mas. findli-uilsonis modelSi naCvenebia, saxelmwifos optimalur

zomasTan mimarTebaSi, saxelmwifos qcevis sazrvrebi, rogorc sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis monopolisti mwarmoeblis da rogorc biurokratis. modelis mixedviT saxelmwifo, rogorc monopolisti

gamodis mogebis maqsimizaciis pirobidan max).)()(( GCGY amitom saxelmwifos zoma am SemTxvevaSi midrekilia iyos optimalurze

naklebi )( mG da adgili eqneba sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis

arasrulyofil warmoebas. xolo, rogorc biurokrati mas aqvs ukontrolo zrdisaken midrekileba. Sedegad izrdeba saxelmwifo aparatSi dasaqmebulTa raodenoba (politikuri rentis maZiebelTa raodenoba) es zrda xdeba manam, sanam saxelmwifo aparatSi

dasaqmebulTa raodebo optimaluri ar gaxdeba max).)()(( GCGY am SemTxvevaSi sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis warmoeba optimalurze meti

iqneba )( BG da adgili eqneba Sromis ara racionalur ganawilebas (nax.2.11).

mizezi biurokratiis susti kontroli, susti konkurencia da misi didi damoukideblobaa. amitomac sazogadoebrivi arCevanis Teoriis warmomadgenlebi gamodian saxelmwifos ekonomikaSi Carevis maqsimaluri SezRudis sasargeblod. maTi azriT sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis warmoebac ki, ar aris mizezi saxelmwifos ekonomikaSi

B,C

Q

B(Q)

C(Q)

Qmin Qmax

nax. 2.10

B,C

nax. 2.11

G

Y(G)

C(G)

Gm GB Gopt 1

54

aqtiuri Carevisa. ramdenadac sxvadasxva gadasaxadis gadamxdelebi iReben araTanabar mogebas saxelmwifo programebidan. efeqturi iaraRi biurokratiis winaaRmdeg aris privatizacia, misi mizania swored konstituciuri ekonmikis formireba, adamianis ekonomikuri uflebebis gafarToeba da saxelmwifos moqmedebis arealis Seviwroeba.

mniSvnelovania politikur-ekonomikuri cikli, romelic warmoadgens arCevnebs Soris saxelmwifos ekonomikuri aqtivobis ciklis an ciklTa erTobliobas. saxelmwifos qceva arCevnebs Soris SualedSi emorCileba garkveul kanonzomierebas. dasawyisSi igi axorcielebs rig cvlilebebs, romelic mimarTulia winamorbedi xelisuflebis namoqmedarTa gardaqmnaze. es zomebi atarebs gansakuTrebiT radikalur xasiaTs, roca mTavrobaSi modis partia, romelic opoziciaSi imyofeboda. isini mimarTven biujetis deficitis Semcirebis da arapopularuli programebis Sewyvetisa da saxelmwifo aparatis gardaqmnis mcdelobebs. xelisuflebaSi xelmeored mosuli partia ki cdilobs Seasrulos Tundac nawili winasaarCevno dapirebebisa.

unda aRiniSnos, rom axali aqtivobis piki ar unda imyofebodes Zalian Sors momavali arCevnebisagan da amave dros ar unda imyofebodes winamorbed pikze dabla, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi daviwyebas miecema amomrCevlebis mxridan xelisuflebis aqtivobis periodi da momaval arCevnebSi marcxis albaToba gaizrdeba.

Zalian mniSvnelovania, rom sworad iqnas gagebuli sabazro ekonomikis formirebis da ganviTarebis procesebze politikuri faqtorebis zemoqmedebis meqanizmi. imisaTvis, raTa gavaanalizoT Tu ra rols TamaSobs es meqanizmi ekonomikis ganviTarebis damuxruWebasa Tu daCqarebaSi.

yovelive zemoTTqmulidan gamomdinare mimaCnia, rom mniSvnelovania grZelvadiani TamaSis wesebis SemuSaveba, masze SeTanxmeba da misi dacva. konstituciuri wesrigi da isntitucionaluri mowyoba ganapirobebs makroekonomikuri politikis formirebis CarCoebs, amasTan swored maszea damokidebuli, ukve SemuSavebuli politikis gatarebis da aRsrulebis SesaZlebloba da warmateba.

3. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008

wlebi)

3.1 saqarTveloSi monetaruli politikis muSaobis meqanizmi

saqarTvelos ekonomika ukanasknel wlebSi mniSvnelovan zrdas ganicdida. ukanasknel sam weliwadSi (2005-2008 wlebSi) realuri mSp daaxloebiT 25%-iT gaizarda. SedarebisaTvis wina sam weliwadSi mSp-s zrdis tempi 28% iyo. magram miuxedavad amisa mainc unda davfiqrdeT, ramdenad stabiluria anda kanonzomieria ekonomikaSi zrdis es tendencia. saqarTvelo mcire Ria ekonomikis Taviseburebidan gamomdinare sagareo ekonomikuri Sokebis mniSvnelovan gavlenas

55

ganicdis, rac ekonomikuri politikis formirebis sirTuleebTanaa dakavSirebuli.

saqarTvelos erovnuli banki, “saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis Sesaxeb”, saqarTvelos organuli kanonis mixedviT fulad-sakredito da savaluto politikis SemmuSavebeli da ganmaxorcielebeli organoa. igi am politikas saqarTvelos parlamentis mier gansazRvruli ZiriTadi mimarTulebebis Sesabamisad SeimuSavebs da axorcielebs. sainteresoa, rom organuli kanoni erTmniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs, rom erovnuli bankis ZiriTadi mizani fasebis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofaa. Tumca erovnulma bankma xeli unda Seuwyos mdgard ekonomikur zrdas, Tu es SesaZlebelia ise, rom safrTxe ar Seeqmnas mis ZiriTad amocanas. amasTan erovnuli bankis prezidenti pasuxismgebelia inflaciis maCvenebelze (Tavi I, muxli 4-4).

maSasadame, saqarTvelos organuli kanoniT erovnuli banki aRWurvilia erTi mizniT, Tumca ZiriTadi miznis mkacrad gansazRvris miuxedavad ar aris ganmartebuli inflaciis maCvenebelze erovnuli bankis prezidentis pasuxismgeblobis Sinaarsi, rac kanonis naklovanebad mimaCnia. miuxedavad amisa saqarTveloSi monetaruli politikis gatarebis siZneleebidan gamomdinare erovnuli banki ar axdens inflaciis Targedirebas. siZneleebis mTavari mizezi qveyanaSi dolarizaciis maRali donea, rac monetaruli instrumentebis zemoqmedebis xarisxs amcirebs da monetaruli politikis Sedegebis ganusazRvrelobis xarisxs zrdis.

erovnuli bankis politikis Sefasebisas mniSvnelovania zogadi ekonomikuri koniunqturidan gamomdinare Tu ramdenad adekvaturia erovnuli bankis politika, ramdenad kargad aris SerCeuli Sualeduri miznebi; kidev ufro sagulisxmoa is garemoeba, Tu ramdenad “gulwrfelia” erovnuli banki Tavisi ZiriTadi miznis gansazRvrisas da SesabamisobaSi aris Tu ara miznebi mis realur qmedebebTan; agreTve ra instrumentebs da rogor iyenebs igi dasaxuli miznis misaRwevad.

saqarTvelos ekonomika ukanasknel periodSi (2002-2009 w.w.) Cemi azriT xasiaTdeboda, rogorc dadebiTi ise mniSvnelovnad uaryofiTi tendenciebiT. mniSvnelovania aRiniSnos, rom erTi mxriv dadebiTi movlenebi xSir SemTxvevaSi uaryofiT efeqtebs Seicaven da piriqiT. umniSvnelovanesi problema iyo fasebis arastabiluroba, romlis mizezic monetaruli politikis ara TanmimdevrulobaSi unda veZeboT. Tumca saqarTvelos ekonomika seriozul egzogenur Sokebs da Zvrebs ganicdida, saidanac unda gamoyos energo saqonelze fasebis arastabiluroba, stiqiuri ubedurebebis Sedegad soflis meurneobis warmoebis Semcireba, 2006 wels ruseTis mier dawesebuli embargo, 2008 wlis agvistos “ruseT-saqarTvelos omi”, 2008-2009 wlebis msoflio finansuri krizisi, bumi samSeneblo seqtorSi, ramac binaTmSeneblobaSi fasebis rekorduli mateba gamoiwvia, finansuri seqtoris gafarTovebis Sedegad sxvadasaxva saxis kreditebis moculobis mateba, ucxouri investiciebis didi raodenobiT Semodineba da sxva.

bolo 7 weliwadSi mimoqcevaSi erovnuli valutis moculoba 3-jer gaizarda da M0 fuladi agregatis saSualo wliurma wrdis tempma 21% Seadgina. fulis miwodebis tempi gansakuTrebiT maRali iyo 2004-

56

2007 wlebSi. amis fonze realuri mSp 1.61-jer, xolo oficialuri statistikuri monacemebiT samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi 1.55-jer gaizarda. 2002-2008 wlebSi saSualo wliurma realuri mSp-s zrdis tempma 8%, xolo saSualo wliurma inflaciam 7.5% Seadgina. Tu aRniSnul statistikas daveyrdnobiT, maSin vnaxavT, rom mocemul periodSi fulis brunvis siCqare mcirdeboda. agreTve fulis masis maRali zrdis tempis da masTan SedarebiT araproporciulad dabali ekonomikuri zrdisa da inflaciis pirobebSi, vfiqrob SegviZlia Semdegi hipoTezis gamoTqma: fulis brunvis siCqaris Semcireba sazogadoebaSi ZiriTadad maRal inflacur molodins da ekonomikuri aqtovobis Semcirebas ukavSirdeba. igi realuri da ara nominaluri faqtoria da fulis msyidvelobiti unaris SemcirebasTan aris dakavSirebuli. amasTan igi pirdapir asaxvas ver povebs inflaciis maCvenebelSi, radgan ekonomikuri aqtivobis Semcireba realuri Semosavlebis SemcirebasTan aris dakavSrebuli da sazogadoebis Semosavlebis msyidvelobiTi unari mocemuli fasebis pirobebSi mcirdeba. Tu pirvel sawyisad fulis brinvis siCqaris Semcirebas ganvixilavT, maSin is eqneba ekonomikuri aqtivobis Semcirebis da ara inflaciuri molodinis gaZlierebis faqtori. am SemTxvevaSi fulis masis zrdas moklevadin periodSi SeuZlia ekonomikis stimulireba. saqartveloSi 2004-2007 wlebis monetaruli gadamcemi meqanizmi vfiqrob msgavsi TaviseburebiT xasiaTdeboda. Sedegad am periodSi ekonomikaSi vakvirebodiT stimulirebul bums, ramac rogorc finansur da samSeneblo seqtorSi ise sxva dargebSi hpova asaxva. stimulirebuli bumis Sedegad Semcirda erovnul valutaSi sesxebze realuri saprocento ganakveTi 19.4%-dan 11.1%-mde. radgan ekonomikaSi ar SeiniSneba danazogebis zrdis tendencia, magram saprocento ganakveTis Semcireba sasesxo kaitalis bazarze swoed bumis stimulirebas axdens, rac ganpirobebulia erovnuli bankis eqspansiuri monetaruli politikiT, rasac araviTari saerTo ar aqvs bazris realur impulsebTan da amaxinjebs maT. aseT politikas mivyavarT sakredito resursebis miwodebis zrdisaken (ekonomikaSi realuri uzrunvelyofis gareSe), rac warmoSobs disbalanss realur cvladebs Soris nominalurTan mimarTebaSi, kerZoT realuri moTxovna sasesxo kapitalis bazarze aWarbebs miwodebas. amitom mimdinare monetaruli da mTlianad ekonomikuri politika seriozul riskebs Seicavs da SeiZleba mkveTri zrdidan seriozul recesiamde migviyvanos.

Tu fulis brunvis siCqaris Semcireba inflaciuri molodinis faqtoriT iqneboda gamowveuli, maSin fulis Warb miwodebias ufro metad unda waexalisebina inflacia, vidre oficialuri statistikuri monacemebiT aris es dadasturebuli.

monetaruli politikis sirTuleebi dakavSirebuli iyo agreTve ucxouri valutis didi raodenobiT SemodinebasTan, kerZod saqarTvelos sagadamxdelo balansis finansuri angariSis mixedviT ucxouri investiciebis moculobam 2002-2008 wlebis manZilze 8.5 miliard aSS dollars miaRwia, xolo erovnuli bankis ucxouri valutis rezervebi 1,372 mln aSS dolariT gaizarda. ucxouri valutis didi raodenobiT Semodineba, dadebiT faqtorTan erTad, ori mniSvnelovani uaryofiTi tendenciiT xasiaTdeba: pirveli, ucxouri valutis SemodinebiT erovnuli valutis kursis gamyareba auaresebs

57

saqarTvelos savaWro pirobebs da aferxebs eqsportis zrdis tempebs; meore, ucxouri savaluto rezervebis dagroveba da erovnuli valutis kursis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofa axdens inflaciur zewolas ekonomikaze da zrdis erovnuli valutis Warb miwodebs ekonomikaSi. orive es tendencia gansaxilvel periodSi damaxasiaTebeli iyo saqarTvelosaTvis.

aRsaniSnavia is garemoebac, rom 2008 wels pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Semodineba 436,234 aTasi aSS dolariT Semcirda da kapitalis nakadebis zrda wina welTan SedarebiT ZiriTadad porTfeluri da sxva investiciebis zrdis xarjze moxda.

erTerTi mniSvnelovani dadebiTi tendencia iyo 2003-2007 wlebSi komerciul bankebSi depozitebis dolarizaciis Semcireba. erovnul valutaSi depozitebi aRniSnul periodSi 11.6-jer gaizarda, maSin roca ucxour valutaSi depozitebis odenoba 3.5-jer gaizarda. Tu 2002-2003 wlebSi M2 monetaruli agregati ZiriiTadad bankebs gareT arsebuli naRdi fulis zrdis xarjze izrdeboda, 2004-2007 wlebSi mniSvnelovnad gaizarda erovnul valutaSi depozitebis roli. magaliTad Tu 2002 wels M2 monerauli agregatis zrdaSi 72% wilad bankebs gareT arsebuli naRdi fulis zrdis xarjze modioda. 2006 wels ki piriqiT 72% wilad erovnul valutaSi depozitebis zrdis xarjze modioda. Sesabamisad gaizarda erovnuli depozitebis xvedriTi wili M3 monerauli agregatis zrdaSic.

2002-2008 wlebis erovnuli bankis wliuri angariSis mixedviT erovnul banks Tavis ZiriTadi saboloo miznis fasebis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofis gzaze saorientaciod mTavar Sualedur miznad fuladi baza aqvs arCeuli. imavdroulad monetaruli politikis mniSvnelovan orientirebad kvlav rCeba gacvliTi kursisa da saprocento gankveTis stabiluroba. wliuri angariSebis mixedviT erovnuli banki maT Sualedur orientirebad ar ganixilavs, anu fulis masis zrdis tempis sapirispirod ar cdilobs gansazRvros am maCveneblebis raime niSnuli. aRsaniSnavia, rom fuladi bazis zrdis tempebi sakmaod maRali iyo, ucxouri investiciebis paraleluri zrdis fonze. rasTan erTadac aRsaniSnavia, rom umetes SemTxvevaSi erovnulma bankma ver gaamarTla winaswar dasaxuli inflaciis maCvenebeli. Tumca ekonomikis legalizaciisa da saxelmwifo finansebis gafarToveba sakmaod mniSvnelovani faqtorebia fulze moTxovnis zrdis kuTxiT.

erTi mxriv fulis bazris ganviTarebam, xolo meore mxriv egzogenuri monetaruli Sokebis gaZlierebam gazarda monetaruli regulirebis mniSvneloba da saWiroeba. amitom erovnulma bankma rig instrumentebTan erTad Secvala da gazarda monetaruli instrumentebi. Ria bazarze operaciebis gansaxorcieleblad 2006 wlis maisidan SeimuSaves saxelmwifo obligaciebis auqcioni; 2006 wlis seqtembridan - erT wlamde vadianobis sadepozito sertifikatebi, romelis gayidvac auqconis wesiT xorcieldeba. mis wilada fulis bazarze amoRebuli likvidonis naSTis didi wili modis da fulis masisa da saprocento ganakveTis regulirebisaTvis sakmaod moqnili instrumentia; 2007 wlis ivnisidan ZalaSi Sevida axali kanoni, romelic komerciuli bankebis mier ucxouri valutiT moziduli saxsrebis ucxourive valutiT darezervebis uflebas iZleva. adre

58

darezerveba mxolod erovnul valutaSi xdeboda. 2008 wlis seqtembridan SeimuSaves – refinansirebis sesxebis instrumenti.

imisaTvis, rom fulis masis stimulirebuli bumis Sesaxeb hipoTeza SevamowmoT avagoT regresiuli gantoleba realuri mTliani Sida produqtis zrdis mimarT 2002-2008 wlebis kvartalur monacemebze dakvirvebiT. amisaTvis SevimuSaoT modeli:

1. ekonomikaSi gamoSvebis moculoba nawildeba Sida moxmarebas, investiciebsa da eqsports Soris (saxelmwifo xarjebi nawildeba mocemul komponentebSi):

ExiICY e

id

dauSvaT, Sida moxmareba ki dakavSirebulia Semosavlebsa da realur gacvliT kursze:

YsPPaCd )1)(/( *

sadac, a koeficientia, romelic Semosavlebis erovnul bazarSe

Semodinebas axasiTebs;

*P fasebis done sazRvargareT;

s danazogebis wili SemosavlebSi;

Sedegad Cven miviRebT Semdeg IS funqciis gantolebas:

)1.3(

)1)(/(1 * sPPa

ExiIY

e

i

2. dauSvaT fulze moTxovna fulis raodenobrivi gantolebiT

aRiwereba: ).2.3(/ PMY

Tu (3.1) da (3.2) gantolebebs gavalogariTmebT da sawyisi formulidan garkveuli cdomilebi CavwerT. sagareo vaWrobis Soks

ugulvebelyofis SemTxvevaSi )0)(( ExLn miviRebT:

PkMkkY

krkkY~~~

~~~

54

32

sadac,

kk , Tavisufali wevrebia; 5432 ,,, kkkk elastikurobis

koeficientebia. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom orive gantoleba erTi da imave saSedego cvladis maxasiatebelia, gadavwyvite isini erTian regresiul modelSi ganmexila:

PkMkkrkkY~~~~~

54321

saprocento ganakvetisaTis )(r gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad SeirCa

sesxebze saSualo Sewonili saprocento ganakveTi; fuladi agregatis

)(M gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad M2 fuladi agregati; fasebis donis

)(P – samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi; realuri gacvliTi kursis )( – realuri efeqturi gacvliTi kursis indeqsi. regresiuli modelis pirveladi Sefaseba Semdeg Sedegs iZleva:

)75.1(87.1),8.2(49,8781.0,89.0

~85.0

~74.0~40.0~25.026.4

~

05.0

22

)648.1()746.3()116.1()009.1()04.3()(

uDWFFRR

PMrY

kr

t

59

modelSi gantolebis mniSvnelovneba da bevri koeficientis dabali mniSvnelovnebis done miuTiTebs multikolinialurobis problemaze, xolo durbin-uoTsonis kriteriumidan gadaxra avtokorelaciis probnelamze, rac modelis araswor specifikaciaze migvaniSnebs. multikolinialurobis problemis aRmosafxvrelad regresiis TanmimdevrobiT mierTebis meTodis safuZvelze dadginda, rom sesxebze realuri saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebis yvelaze dabali korelaciiT xasiaTdeba saSedego cvladTan da misi CarTva amcirebs determinaciis koeficientis mniSvnelobas, amitom igi unda amoviRoT modelidan. xolo nax.3.8. –ze dakvirvebidan Cans, rom pirvel da meoTxe kvartlebSi modelis imitaciuri mniSvnelobebi gadaixreba misi faqtiuri mniSvnelobebidan, amitom sezoniuri faqtorebis damatebiT vcdilob avtokorelirebulobis aRmofxvras.

am faqtorebis gaTvaliswinebiT gveqneba Semdegi gantoleba:

)96.1;9.14(1.2),68.2(25,98.0,99.0

1.008.0~

46.0~

25.0~39.045.4~

05.0

22

4)77.8(

1)36.6()15.2()65.3()54.2()49.7()(

uDWDWFFRR

DDPMY

kr

t

gantolebis fardobiTi korelaciis koeficienti da F statistika adasurebs gantolebis mniSvnelovnebas. avtokorelaciasac durbin-uoTsonis kriteriumis mixedviT adgili ar aqvs. vfiqrob, rom testirebis Sedegad miRebuli Sedegebis safuZvelze SesaZlebelia modeli gamoyenebul iqnas zemoT aRniSnuli problemis dasaxasiaTeblad.

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 4.457067 0.594772 7.493743 0.0000

C(2) -0.391312 0.153671 -2.546422 0.0224

C(3) 0.250701 0.068631 3.652870 0.0024

C(4) 0.467213 0.217267 2.150405 0.0482

C(5) -0.081303 0.012765 -6.369225 0.0000

-.2

-.1

.0

.1

.2

7.6

8.0

8.4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

narCenobiTi wevriekonomikuri zrdaekonomikuri zrdis imitacia

nax. 3.8

60

C(6) 0.102185 0.011650 8.771111 0.0000

R-squared 0.991467 Mean dependent var 7.962252

Adjusted R-squared 0.988623 S.D. dependent var 0.202422

S.E. of regression 0.021591 Akaike info criterion -4.598095

Sum squared resid 0.006993 Schwarz criterion -4.299660

Log likelihood 54.27999 Durbin-Watson stat 2.108955

modelSi faqtoris mniSvnelovnebisa da gavlenis

dasaxasiateblad gamovTvale faqtorebis stantardizebuli

koeficientebi:

.37.0~

;61.0~

;13.0~

543 kkk saidanac aSkarad Cans, rom

fulis masis cvlileba yvelaze mniSvnelovani faqtoria. regresiis gantolebis koeficientebis interpretireba gvaCvenebs, rom fulis masis erTi procentiT zrda zrdis realuri mSp-s zrdis temps 0.25%-iT. realuri mSp-s zrdis tempTan dadebiT korelaciaSia agreTve fasebis done. fasebis erTi procentiT zrda zrdis realur mSp-s 0.46%-iT. am garemoebasTan logikur TanxvedraSia realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis uaryofiTi korelacia realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT. misi erTi procentiT zrda amcirebs realur mSp-s 0.39%-iT. fulis masis da fasebis donis amgvari damokidebuleba realuri mSp-s zrdis miarT adasturebs qveyanaSi monetaruli faqtorebuT gamowveyl stimulirebul bumis arsebobas. amasTan realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis uaryofiTi korelacias realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT SeiZleba Semdegi interpretacia mivceT, rom ucxouri fuladi nakadebis Semodineba, romelc zrdis (amyarebs) nominalur gacvliT kurss da maSasadame zrdis realur gacvliT kurs auaresebs sagareo vaWrobis pirobebs da aferxebs realuri mSp-s zrads.

3.2 saqarTvelos fiskaluri politikis mimoxilva

saxelmwifo biujeti ukanasknel wlebSi maRali ekonomikuri zrdis tempebiT xasiaTdeboda, rac ekonomikuri zrdis erTerTi

-.04

-.02

.00

.02

.04

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

narCenobiTi wevriekonomikuri zrdaekonomikuri zrdis imitacia

nax. 3.9

61

ganmapirobebeli faqtori iyo. 2004-2007 wlebSi mniSvnelovnad gaumjobesda fiskaluri administrirebis dona, am mimarTulebiT gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani iyo 2005 wels sagadasaxado kanonmdeblobis srulyofa, ramac Seamcira, rogorc gadasaxadebis raodenoba da ganakveTebi, ise gaamartiva maTi gaangariSeba da amoRebis meqanizmi. SedarebisaTvis 2002 wels arasrulyofili sagadasaxado kanonmdeblobis pirobebSi, biujetis gegma Sesrulda 86.3%-iT da garRvevam 89.33 milioni lari Seadgina, xolo magaliTad 2006 wels biujetis gegma 104.8%-iT Sesrulda da metobam 172 mln lari Seadgina. 2002-2007 welebSi qveynis konsolidirebul biujetSi izardeboda, rogorc sagadasaxado ise arasagadasaxado Semosavlebi. rasTan erTadac aRiniSneboda ucxoeTidan miRebuli grantebis wilis Semcirebis tendencia. Tumca 2008 wels wina welTan SedarebiT grantebis moculoba 2.7-jer gaizarda da 617 mln. lari Seadgina. saanalizo periodSi mTlianad konsolidirebuli biujeti 6.2-jer gaizarda da nominalur gamosaxulebaSi 6,578,200 aTasi lari Seadgina. aRsaniSnavia, rom xSir SemTxvevaSi mniSvnelovnad aWarbebda gegmiur monacemebs da wlis ganmavlobaSi ganicdida xSir koreqtirebas. Cemi azriT dRevandeli mdgomareobiT saxelmwifos xarjebisa da gadasaxadebis tvirTi erovnul ekonomikaze arc ise didia, Tumca sagangaSoa saxelmwifo xarjebis zrdis tempebi mTlian Sida produqtTan SefardebiT, kerZod saxelmwifo biujetis xarjebis wili mSp-sTan mimarTebaSi 2002 wlidan 2008 wlamde 11%-dan 30.4%-mde, xolo sagadasaxado Semosavlebis wilma mSp-sTan mimarTebaSi Sesabamisad 9.7%-dan 23.8%-mde gaizarda. moklevadian periodSi saxelmwifos xarjebisa da gadasaxadebis tvirTi masStabur zrdas SesaZloa uaryofiTi gavlena moexdina ekonomikur zrdaze. Tumca sagadasaxado kanonmdeblobis srulyofam, gadasaxadebis donis Semcirebam da administraciuli kontrolis gaumjobesebam Crdilovani ekonomikis legalizacia da mTlinad ekonomikaze sagadasaxado tvirTis Semsubuqeba gamoiwvia, ramac ekonomikis stimulirebas Seuwyo xeli. fiskaluri politika gulisxmobs ekonomikaSi mimdinare procesebze saxelmwifos zemoqmedebas saxelmwifo xarjebisa da gadasaxadebis cvlilebis meSveobiT. saxelmwifo biujetis deficiti da saxelmwifos vali am mxriv umniSvnelovanesi komponentia. maRali saxelmwifo valis pirobebSi saxelmwifo biujetiSi izrdeba valis momsaxurebis xarjebis muxli, rac mTavrobas uzRudavs fiskaluri politikis SesaZleblobebsa da mastabilizirebeli politikis gatarebis saSualebas. am mxriv unda aRiniSnos, rom 2002-2008 wlebSi Semcirda mSp-s mimarT saxelmwifo valis momsaxurebis wili 18%-dan 2%-mde, Semcirda biujetis yovelwliuri, rogorc mimdinare, ise pirveladi deficiti, Semcirda saxelmwifo valis valis wili mSp-Si 67%-dan 27%-mde, maT Soris sagareo vali mSp-s mimarT 44%-dan 19%-mde Semcirda. saxexelmwifo valis da valis momsaxurebis Semcirebas grZelvadian periodSi SeuZlia gzardos kerZo Sida aqtivebis moculoba da kapitalis maragebi, rac grZelvadiani ekonomikuri zrdis safuZveli SeiZleba gaxdes. fardobiTi sidideebis SemcirebasTan erTad 2008 wels saxelmwifo vali wina welTan SedarebiT 1.31-jer gaizarda da 5,153.6 milioni lari Seadgina.

62

biujetis xarjebis struqturis funqcionaluri klasifikaciis 14 ZiriTad jgufi mniSvnelovani ZvrebiT ar xasiaTdeboda. sxvadasxva jgufebSi wilebis umniSvnelo gadaxrebis fonze mTavar struqturul cvlilebas socialuri dacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis xarjebis wilis mniSvnelovnad Semcireba da Tavdacvis da sazogadoebrivi wesrigisa da usafrTxoebis xarjebis wilis mniSvnelovani mateba warmoadgenda. kerZod 2002 wlidan 2008 wlamde socialuri dacvisa da socialuri uzrunvelyofis xarjebis wili saxelmwifo biujetSi 25.4%-dan 13%-mde Semcirda, marTalia xarjebi fardobiT moculobaSic Semcirda, magram angariSgasawevia bolo wlebSi am sferos dafinansebis mkveTri zrda (3.08-jer). uprecendento zrdiT xasiaTdeboda Tavdacvis xarjebi. misi moculoba 2002 welTan SedarebiT 2007 wels 39.9-jer gaizarda da absolutur gamosaxulebaSi 1,502 mln lari Seadgina. fiskaluri sagadasaxado Semosavlebis zrdaSi ganmsazrvreli damatebuli Rirebulebis (40%), socialuri (18%) da saSemosavlo (13%) sagadasaxado Semosavlebis zrda iyo. mniSvnelovani iyo arasagadasaxado Semosavlebis zrda, rac ZiriTadad mosakreblebis, jarimebisa da sanqciebis mkveTri matebiT aixsneba. kapitalur SemosavlebSi qonebis privatizaciidan miRebulma Tanxam 2004-2007 wlebSi 1,776 mln lari Seadgina. sabiuto Semosavlebis zrda sainvesticio klimatis gaumjobesebis, Crdilovani seqtoris legalizaciisa da korufciis Semcirebis xarjze unda momxdariyo. aqve isic unda aRiniSnos, rom saxelmwifo xarjebis maRali tempebiT zrda gavlenas axdens Sida moTxovnis formirebaze da inflaciis fiskaluri impulsis warmoqmnas ganapirobebs. vfiqrob ekonomikaSi sabiujeto xarjebis zrdis dadebiTi gavlena ekonomikur zrdaze gamowveuli iyo imiT, rom aRniSnul periodSi adgili hqonda sazogadoebis moxmarebis Canacvlebis efeqts, agreTve infrastruqturuli proeqtebis zrdam ekonomikaSi mastimulirebeli fiskaluri efeqti moaxdina. amasTan mimaCnia, rom biujeti da grZelvadiani sabiujeto politika aris qveynis stabilurobis safuZveli amotom, is ar unda iqces `zewolis jgufebis~, lobizmisa da politikuri dapirebebis msxverpli, aramed unda iyos prognozirebadi. amisaTvis pirvel rigSi gezi aRebul unda iqnas biujetis struqturul srulyofaze, romelmac unda uzrunvelyos biujetis xarjebis zrdis SezRudva. risi mizanic aris biujetis zrdis tempebis CamorCena ekonomikur zrdis tempebTan SedarebiT, raTa moiTokos saxelmwifos mxridan ekonomikis eqspansia. amitom, roca vambobT biujetis struqturul dagegmvaze, es gulisxmobs biujetis struqturis adeqvaturobas, saxelmwifo moxmarebis Semcirebasa da saxelmwifo xarjebis Semcirebas. struqturuli dagegmvisas unda ganisazrvros saxelmwifos moqmedebis areali, rom is swored rom sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis mwarmoebelia. saxelmwifos xarjebis struqturam unda uzrunvelyos Semdegi miznebis miRweva: usafrTxoeba; socialuri stabiluroba; erovnuli ekonomikis konkurentunarianobis zrda; siRaribis Semcireba; sakuTrebis uflebis dacva; mdgradi ekologiuri garemos SenarCuneba; Tavisufali konkurenciis dacva; dadebiTi sainvesticio klimati;

63

biujetis xarjebis dagegmvisas saxelmwifom uari unda Tqvas xarjTaRricxvis centraluri administraciuli wesiT gansazRvraze da gamovides im moTxovnebidan rasac, mas sazogadoeba uyenebs, risTvisac mniSvnelovania gaimijnos centralir xelisuflebasa da adgilobriv TviTmarTvelobas Soris kompetenciebi da am ukanasknelT gaufarTovdeT sabiujeto damoukidebloba da gaezardoT pasuxismgebloba.

3.3 konstituciuri politikuri ekonomikis23 problemebi

ekonomikuri transformaciis pirobebSi

ekonomiuri transformaciis porobebSi, romelsac Tanamedrove etapze saqarTveloSi vakvirdebiT, gansakuTrebiT didia politikur faqtorTa zemoqmedebis ganusazRvreloba. s.afroncevi24 gardamaval qveynebTan mimarTebaSi, sadac sabarzro subieqtTa Soris sameurneo saqmianobisa da saxelmwifo sakuTrebis uflebebis gadanawilebis procesi mimdinareobs, aviTarebs azrs rom, aseTi gadanawileba Tavdapirvelad ganxorcieldeba elitaruli jgufebis interesebis Sesabamisad, romlebic mWidro kavSirSi arian samTavrobo jgufebTan da aseve “zewolis jgufebTan”, romlebic uzrunvelyofen resursebis transferts im politikuri subieqtebis sasargeblod, romlebic iReben gadawyvetilebebs. amis mizezi aris politikur bazarze arsebuli ganusazRvreloba. privatizaciis procesi, romelic mimarTulia saxelmwifo sakuTrebis kerZo sakuTrebad transformaciisaken, meurneobaTa uflebamosilebis gadanawilebis procesi gaxdeba, gansakuTrebul interesTa jgufis dainteresebis obieqti. isini gavlenas axdenen ra parlamentis gadawyvetilebaze iReben garkveul sargebels, xolo zewolis jgufebi, romlebic ver moaxerxeben sakuTari interesebis realizacias rCebian “Cagrulni”.

gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi privatizaciis daCqarebuli tipis pirobebSi xdeba bevri obieqtis privatizacia politikuri lobirebis da ara Tavisufali konkurebciis pirobebSi. rac resursebis arasamarTlian da araefeqtur ganawilebas iwvevs.

politikuri bazris ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi, rac ufro damokidebuli xdeba mTavroba zewolis jgufebis mxardaWeraze, miT matulobs albaToba imisa, rom maTi moTxovnebi da interesebi dakmayofilebuli iqneba politikuri gadawyvetilebebis SemuSavebiT.

politikur bazarze arsebobs konkurencia zewolis jgufebs Soris. Tumca igi ar SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas raime sasargeblo efeqtis misaRebad. politikur bazarze brZolam SeiZleba gamoiwvios xelisuflebis paralizeba, rac gansakuTrebiT mwvave formebs gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi Rebulobs, vinaidan aq arsebobs politikuri bazris ganusazRvrelobis zrdis yvela winapiroba. es

23 “sazogadoebrivi arCevnis” Teoriis saxelis qveS ganviTarebul disciplinas konstituciur

politikur ekonomikas an konstituciur ekonomikur teoris uwodeben (Бьюкенен Дж., Таллок Г. M 1997). 24 ix. Афронцев C. Неопределенность и проблемы экономической трансформациию. Мировая экономика и

международные отнашения №4 1996. c20-23.

64

aris: `mogebaze~ da `wagebaze~ polarizebuli sazogadoeba; meurneobrivi da sakuTrebis uflebebis pirveladi ganawilebis Semdeg iwyeba brZolis procesi xelaxali gadanawilebisaTvis; amave dros swored gardamavali qveynebisaTvis aris damaxasiaTebeli iseT. politikur ZalTa Tanayofiereba, romlebic radikalurad upirispirdebian xelisuflebas, es ki gardamavali qveynisaTvis warmoadgens xifaTs. aman SeiZleba xeli SeuSalos efeqturi gzebis Ziebas, romelic mimarTulia transformaciuli krizisidan gamosvlisaken da aiZulos mTavroba sulmTlianad daiviwyos ekonomikuri gardaqmnebis mizani.

rogorc, vxedavT sazogadoebrivi arCevanis problema mwvaved dgas ekonomikuri transformaciis pirobebSi, sadac sakmaod didia politikuri faqtorebis zemoqmedebis faqtori. kerZod es problema Sedegebs iZleva am procesebis daCqarebis Tu damuxruWebis meqanizmebis analizisaTvis.

yovelive zemoTTqmulidan gamomdinareobs, rom mniSvnelovania, arCeuli politikuri kursis dacva da misi dacvis garantiebis gansazRvra. amitomac ekonomikis reformebis pirobebSi aucilebelia `Zlieri xelisufleba~.

fsiqologiur faqtorTan, da `politikur arCevanTan~ erTad isntitucionaluri mowyobac mniSvnelovan wild ganapirobebs makroekonomikuri politikis formirebas, amasTan swored maszea damokidebuli, ukve SemuSavebuli politikis gatarebis da aRsrulebis SesaZlebloba da warmateba.

institucionaluri SezRudvis erT-erTi mTavari mizani unda gaxdes politikuri subieqtebis orientireba, politikuri procesebis Sedegad gadawyvetilebaTa mxardaWeraze. mxolod `zewolis jgufTa~ moTxovnebis dakmayofilebaze orientaciam SeiZleba mogvapovebinos politikuri mxardaWera, magram es mxolod moklevadian periodSia SesaZlebeli, rac perspeqtiuli TvalsazrisiT ar aris gamarTlebuli. ase, rom ufro metad samarTlebrivi politika, ufro Seamcirebs politikuri bazris ganusazRvrelobas da amasTan gazrdis sameurneo sistemebis funqcionirebis efeqturobas.

d a s k v n a

1. saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politika, rogorc sazogadoebis arCevani da Tanxmoba, ekonomikuri miznebis miRwevis stradtegiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erToblioba, romelzec gavlenas axdens, rogorc calkeul individebis ise sazogadoebis sxvadasxva jgufebis interesebi. makroekonomikuri politika iseTi strategiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erTobliobas, romlis ZiriTadi miznebia: ekonomikuri zrda, sruli dasaqmeba, ekonomikuri efeqturoba, fasebis stabilizacia, ekonomikuri Tavisufleba, Semosavlebis samarTliani ganawileba, ekonomikuri uzrunvelyofa da savaWro balansi.

2. SegviZlia erTmniSvnelovnad davaskvnaT, rom monetaruli politika xasiTdeba neitralobiTa da superneitralobiT, Tumca neitralobis

65

mtkiceba ar niSnavs, rom es wesi ekonomikaSi nebismier pirobebSi meqanikurad xorcieldeba. arasrulyofili informaciis gamo, rac ekonomikaSi praqtikul problemas warmoadgens, mniSvnelovani adgili uWiravs eqsces. fasebis sainformacio funqciis darRveva ki SeiZleba realur seqtorze da mis stabilurobaze araerTgvarovnad aisaxos.

3. centaraluri bankis mier mkacri valdebulebebis aReba moqnilobas ukargavs monetarul politikas. ekonomikuri agentebi xelmZRvaneloben racionaluri molodinebiT. inflaciuri molodinis formireba centraluri bankis politikisagan damoukideblad ar xdeba. maSasadame isini urTierTganpirobebuli movlenebia, Tanac inflacia, rogorc fenomeni SemTcveviTi sididea. amitomac inflaciur molodinze aqcentis gakeTeba arasworia. inflaciis Targedirebas Tan axlavs umuSevrobis zrda. inflaciis Targedirebisas ekonomikaSi realur fulze moTxovnis ugulvebelyofis gamo, ekonomikaSi sawarmoo aqtivoba mniSvnelovnad mcireba. upriani iqneba moxdes fulis agregatebis, saprocento ganakveTisa da gacvliTi kursebis sabilurobis politikis kombinireba.

4. ekonomikaSi rikardos eqvivalentoba sxva Tanabar pirobebSi sruldeba anu gadasaxadebis zrda da saxelmwifo xarjebis Semcireba tolfas gavlenas axdens ekonomikaze. saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda, dafinansebis formis miuxedavad iwvevs dasaqmebulTa keTildReobis Semcirebas da Sromis miwidebis zrdas, ris xarjzec izrdeba warmoebis potenciuri done. xolo iseTi saxelmwifi xarjebis zrda, romelic anacvlebs kerZo seqtoris xarjebs da agreTve saxelmwifo inveticiebis zrda, sazogadoebis keTildReobisaTvis naklebi uaryofiTi da ekonomikaze mastimulirebeli efeqtiT xasiaTdeba.

5. saxelmwifo biujetis Sida valiis zrdis xarjze dafinanseba ar moqmedebs danazogebze, Tumca mcirdeba kerZo kapitalis moculoba. Tu es permanentul saxes iZens, maSin momavali Taobebi Semcirebuli kapitali maragebis pirobebSi icxovreben. maSasadame mimdinare periodSi Sida saxelmwifo valis zrdac amcirebs momavalSi ekonomikis zrdis temps.

6. saxelmwifo xarjebis gansazRvris kriteriumi unda iyos namdvili `sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis~ warmoeba, romelsac moixmars mTeli sazogadoeba da ara sazogadoebis garkveuli jgufebi anda calkeuli individebi. a.ilarionovi mier Catarebuli kvlevis mixedviT arsebobs kidec saxelmwifos `optimalyri zoma”, romlis pirobebSic ekonomikur zrdis tempi maqsimalur mniSvnelobas aRwevs.

7. sazogadoeba romelSic Cven varsebobT – „ekonomikuri adamianis” TvisebebiT xasiaTdeba. individebi sakuTari sargeblis maqsimizaciisken miswrafian. am wesidan ver gamovricxavT im adamianebs, romlebic xelisuflebaSi arian, radgan Cven ar gvaqvs safuZveli vivaraudoT, rom xelisuflebis warmomadgenlebi altruistebi arian. politika individTa Soris gacvlis rTuli sistemaa, romelSic individebi miiswarfvian sakuTari piradi interesebis dakmayofilebisaken. Sedegad saxelmwifo finansebis

66

moculoba da struqtura ganisazRvreba ara racionaluri arCevaniT aramed gansxvavebuli sazogadoebrivi jgufebis interesTaA urTierTqmedebiT, romelic optimaluri mxolod SemtxveviT SeiZleba aRmoCndes.

8. saqarTvelos ekonomikis analizma gviCvena rom:

fulis masis zrdas 2002-2008 wlebSi qonda mniSvnelovani dadebiTi gavlena realuri mSp-s zrdaze. realuri mSp-s zrdis tempTan dadebiT korelaciaSia agreTve fasebis done, Tumca es gavlena umniSvnelo dasajerobis aris. fulis masis zrdis kvalobaze sul ufro izrdeba fasebis done da mcirdeba fulis brunvis siCqare. Es garemoeba ekonomikaSi stimulirebul bumis arsebobze miuTiTebs.

realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis uaryofiTi gavlena realuri mSp-s zrdaze aris umniSvnelo dasajerebobis. magram SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom ucxouri fuladi nakadebis Semodineba, romelc amyarebs nominalur gacvliT kurss da maSasadame zrdis realur gacvliT kurs auaresebs sagareo vaWrobis pirobebs da aferxebs realuri mSp-s zrads.

qvyanaSi xorcieldeboda eqspansiuri monetaruli da fiskaluri politika, rac ekonomikaSi inflaciis stimulirebas uwyobs xels, amitom upriani iqneba politikis dabalanseba.

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