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    Table of Contents

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    S.No. Topic

    1. Introduction

    2. Costs of Inflation

    3. Price Indices

    4. Causes of inflation

    5. Inflationary Trend in India

    6. Policies to control Inflation

    7. Inflation : A necessary Evil

    8. Lessons Learnt and Way Ahead

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    Executive Summary

    In the following paper, an attempt has been made to examine the nature

    and causes of inflation, in the general context as well as with respect to

    India. We have covered the various types of inflation, the detrimental

    impact of inflation to an individual and economy as well as measures of

    inflation. With respect to the price indices, we have examined the

    advantages and disadvantages of the two price indices namely CPI and

    WPI and provided an analysis of both in the Indian context.

    The causes of inflation are many, but we have focused on those relevant

    to the Indian economy namely demand-pull, cost-push, expectation

    induced and fiscal deficit. We have given an account of the inflationary

    trend in India over the past 18 months and analysed the same in five

    phases.

    We have also examined the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy in

    controlling and managing inflation. The policies and tools used by the

    government of India in recent times have been focused upon and their

    impact on inflation in India has been analysed.

    Lastly we have tried to give a holistic explanation of the nature of inflation

    by looking at why inflation is necessary and the benefits of moderate

    inflation rates.

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    1. Introduction:

    What Is Inflation?

    Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices

    for goods and services. It is measured as an annual percentage increase.

    As inflation rises, every dollar you own buys a smaller percentage of a

    good or service. The value of a dollar does not stay constant when there is

    inflation. The value of a dollar is observed in terms of purchasing power,

    which is the real, tangible goods that money can buy. When inflation goes

    up, there is a decline in the purchasing power of money. For example, if

    the inflation rate is 2% annually, then theoretically a $1 pack of gum will

    cost $1.02 in a year. After inflation, your dollar can't buy the same goods

    it could beforehand

    Variants of Inflation

    Deflation is when the general level of prices is falling. This is the

    opposite of inflation

    Disinflation, represents a period when the inflation rate is positive,

    but declining over time

    Hyperinflation is unusually rapid inflation. One of the most notable

    examples of hyperinflation occurred in Germany in 1923, when

    prices rose 2,500% in one month

    Stagflation is the combination of high unemployment and

    economic stagnation with inflation. This happened in industrialized

    countries during the 1970s, when a bad economy was combined

    with OPEC raising oil prices

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    2. Costs of Inflation :

    Price inflation has immense effect on the Time Value of Money

    (TVM)1. This acts as a principal component of the rates of interest,

    which forms the basis of all TVM calculations. The real or estimated

    changes occurring in the rates of inflation lead to changes in the

    rates of interest as well.

    Relative price variability- Inflation distorts relative prices. Consumer

    decisions are distorted, and markets are less able to allocate

    resources to their best use

    Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion- Inflation exaggerates the size of

    capital gains and increases the tax burden on this type of income.

    With progressive taxation, capital gains are taxed more heavily.

    Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth - Unexpected inflation

    redistributes wealth among the population in a way that has nothing

    to do with either merit or need

    Competitiveness and Unemployment2 - Inflation is a possible cause

    of higher unemployment in the medium term if one country

    experiences a much higher rate of inflation than another, leading to

    a loss of international competitiveness and a subsequent worsening

    of their trade performance

    1 http://www.economywatch.com/inflation/effects.html

    2 http://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-notes/a2-macro-consequences-of-inflation.html

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    http://www.economywatch.com/inflation/effects.htmlhttp://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-notes/a2-macro-consequences-of-inflation.htmlhttp://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-notes/a2-macro-consequences-of-inflation.htmlhttp://www.economywatch.com/inflation/effects.html
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    3. P rice Indices

    The inflation rate is the percentage increase in the overall level of prices.

    An inflationary situation does not mean that all prices are rising without

    exception. Since many goods & services are produced in economy, some

    prices may actually be falling and others may be rising at any point of

    time. But if the price of only one/very few goods goes up, then it is not

    inflation. It is inflation; if the prices of most goods go up. A price index is a

    measure of the average level of prices for some specified set of goods and

    services, relative to the prices in a specified base year.

    Different prices indexes are:

    1. Consumer price index

    2. Wholesale price index

    CPI:

    A consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the price level

    ofconsumer goodsand services purchased by households. CPI is a

    measure of inflation based on what average consumer pays. It measures

    cost of buying a fixed basket of goods and services by consumers. The CPI

    is a weighted average of prices. The weight on each price reflects that

    goods relative importance in the CPIs basket. The weights remain fixed

    over time. This is a measure of the average change over time in the prices

    paid by consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

    Hhousehold survey is conducted to find out consumption of a typical

    household. CPI is released on monthly basis. It is used to

    track changes in the typical households cost of living

    adjust many contracts for inflation

    allow comparisons of currency from different years

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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Final_goodshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_Serviceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_baskethttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Final_goodshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_Serviceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_basket
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    The CPI is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample

    of representative items whose prices are collected periodically. Sub-

    indexes are computed for different categories of goods and services,

    being combined to produce the overall index with weights reflecting theirshares in the total of the consumer expenditures covered by the index.

    The annual percentage change in a CPI is used as a measure ofinflation.

    A CPI can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effect of inflation) the real

    value of wages, salaries, pensions, for regulating prices and for deflating

    monetary magnitudes to show changes in real values.

    The four consumer price indices are: CPI-IW for industrial workers, CPI-

    UNME for non-manual employees, CPI for agricultural laborers and CPI for

    rural laborers.

    Linked all- India CPI (UNME) on base 1984-85=100 for April-2010

    Group

    UNM

    E

    weigh

    t

    Linked

    index for

    April

    -2010

    Index for

    April

    -2009

    %

    chang

    eI Food, beverages, tobacco 47.13 691 602 14.8

    II Fuel and light 5.48 655 625 4.8

    III. Housing 16.41 775 582 33.2

    IV. Cloth., bedding and

    footwear 7.03

    494

    471

    4.9

    V. Miscellaneous 23.95 599 568 5.5General Index ( all

    groups)

    100.0

    0

    667

    583

    14.4

    CPI-IW used for wage indexation in Government and in the organized

    sectors (2001 as base year).CPI UNME series is published by the Central

    Statistical Organization, the others are published by the Department of

    Labour.

    WPI:

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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension
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    The wholesale price index (WPI) is calculated based on the wholesale

    price of a few relevant commodities of over 2,400 commodities available.

    The commodities chosen for the calculation are based on their importance

    in the region and the point of time the WPI is employed. Like CPI, WPI is ameasure of cost of a given basket of goods. WPI is an economy-wide index

    covering 676 commodities. Weights of the commodities are derivedbased

    on the value of quantities traded in the domestic market .It is, therefore,

    the most comprehensive measure of economy-wide inflation available

    with high frequency.CPI measures prices at retail level, WPI is constructed

    at wholesale level. WPI measures average level of prices of goods sold by

    producers.WPI is useful because it gives us an idea of what will happen to

    consumer prices in the near future.it signals changes in CPI/general price

    level. If producers receive higher prices from sale to wholesalers, then

    retailers will charge higher prices, which will reflect in CPI.WPI is released

    on weekly basis. In India, we use WPI as our official measure of inflation.

    India constituted the last WPI series of commodities in 2004-05.

    How to Calculate:

    Laspeyres Formula (relative method)

    It is the weighted arithmetic mean based on the fixed value-based

    weights for the base period.

    Ten-Day Price Index

    Under this method, sample prices with high intra-month fluctuations are

    taken and surveyed every ten days. Utilizing the data retrieved by this

    procedure and with the assumption that other non-surveyed "sample

    prices" remain unchanged, a "ten-day price index" is compiled and

    released.

    Calculation Method

    Monthly price indexes are compiled by calculating the simple arithmetic

    mean of three ten-day sample prices in the month.

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    Description

    Weights

    1981-

    82

    1993-

    94

    2004-

    05

    I. Primary Articles 32.30 22.02 20.1

    II. Fuel, Power,

    Light & Lubricant 10.66 14.23 14.9

    III. Manufactured

    Products 57.04 63.75 64.9

    All Commodities 100 100 100

    Comparison

    Comparison between CPI & WPI:

    Publish Timing: CPI takes time to get published (monthly). But, WPI

    is released on weekly basis.

    Transparency: WPI data is more transparent compared to CPI data

    CPI for all commodities taken together is not available! Non-

    transparency has encouraged mistrust of CPI.

    Effectiveness: CPI measures increase in price that a consumer will

    ultimately have to pay for. But WPI not.

    Many commodities included in WPI have ceased to be important

    from consumption point of view.

    Weightage Difference: In WPI, fuel group gets a much higher

    weightage and services not included. In CPI, food gets maximum

    weightage.

    Coverage: WPI differs from CPI in coverage - e.g. WPI includes raw

    materials and semi-finished goods.

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    The Divergent behaviour of WPI & CPI:

    The difference in behaviour of to inflation measures is due to the variation

    in prices of various groups of articles and their weight indices. As shown

    above, sharply different trend in both measures is due to volatility in food

    and fuel prices and due to their different weights. In CPI weight of food

    particles is more so due to rise in price of food particles, the CPI index

    rises. But in case of WPI, the major portion is fuel and energy so the price

    of fuel and energy went down during recession and the WPI index went

    down.

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    4. Causes of inflation

    Demand-Pull [1]

    An increase in the aggregate demand of an economy when there is full

    employment of resources and when the short-run aggregate supply curve

    is inelastic leads to excess demand or an output gap and can be referred

    to as demand pull inflation. This is often the cause of inflation in growing

    economies like India where expansions in the government and private

    sector lead to increased incomes and therefore increased purchasing

    power of the people.

    The most common causes for demand-pull inflation are as follows:

    1. Increases in the money supply - Monetarist economists believe

    that the root causes of inflation are monetary especially when there

    is an excessive growth of the supply of money in circulation beyond

    that needed to finance the volume of transactions produced in the

    economy

    2. Direct or indirect decreases in taxes - If direct taxes are

    reduced consumers have more real disposable income causing

    demand to rise.

    3. Increases in government spending Increase in government

    spending will lead to an increase in income which will lead to an

    increase in aggregate demand.

    4. Depreciation of the exchange rate - the effect of increasing the

    price of imports and reduces the foreign price of UK exports. If

    consumers buy fewer imports, while foreigners buy more exports,

    AD will rise.

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    When the supply side cannot grow at a similar rate, scarcity of goods will

    occur and a supply-demand mismatch will lead to a price increase.

    [1]

    Cost Push Inflation [2]

    Cost-push inflation occurs when businesses respond to rising production

    costs, by raising prices in order to maintain their profit margins. Higher

    costs may be due to:

    1. Higher cost of raw materials Imported goods may be costlier

    because of inflation in other countries. Scarcity of resources also

    leads to higher price of raw materials.

    2. Rising labour costs As the wage rates rise, cost of production

    rises as well

    3. Increase in direct or indirect taxes - . These taxes are levied on

    producers (suppliers) who, depending on the price elasticity of

    demand and supply for their products, can opt to pass on the

    burden of the tax onto consumers.

    India has faced supply-side inflation with respect to the agricultural sector

    in recent times which has propelled food inflation into double digits.

    During April to March 2010-11 food prices went up 11.24 per cent and fuel

    prices 12.27 per cent over the previous financial year. [3] The ineffective

    public distribution system as well as the rising fuel prices and declining

    agricultural productivity have led to food supply shocks.

    In addition, rising international commodity prices seem to be instrumental

    in driving domestic inflation in the long run. [4]

    Expectations

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    Sustained high levels of inflation have given way to rising inflation

    expectations. According to the RBIs recent survey on inflation

    expectations, urban households in India do not expect any immediate

    respite from price rise and a majority of them feel it would accelerate inthe coming quarters. According to this survey, inflation is likely to

    accelerate to 13.1 per cent by the end of this year. This means, going

    forward, there will be stronger demand for wages hikes in the organised

    sector, with its spillover effect on generalised inflation. [3]

    [2] < http://blog.apnapaisa.com/tag/demand-pull-inflation / >[3] [4] What Drives Inflation in India: Overheating or Input Costs?(Hatekar, Sharma,

    Kulkarni)

    Fiscal Deficit

    High fiscal deficit means that that the government has incurred a large

    debt. In order to finance this debt, the government borrows money from

    the RBI. This is known as monetization of debt and leads to an increase in

    money supply. This in turn leads to demand-pull inflation.

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    http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/isindian-economy-overheating/432776/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/isindian-economy-overheating/432776/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/isindian-economy-overheating/432776/http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/isindian-economy-overheating/432776/
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    1. Inflationary Trends in India

    Looking at inflation data3 at the disaggregated level throws up an

    interesting trend. For most part of the year 2010, it was the Primary

    Articles segment which contributed substantially to overall inflation.

    Further, within the Primary Articles segment, it was Food Articles where

    inflation was at an uncomfortably high level throughout 2010. However,

    beginning 2011, we see that the contribution of the other two broad

    segments, namely Fuel & Power and Manufactured Goods, to overall

    inflation

    has gone up swiftly while that of Primary Articles has come down. It is

    however important to note that while inflation in case of Food Articles

    may be trending down, it is still high for any comfort. Further, while

    inflationary pressures seen in case Fuel and Power can be attributed to

    the increase in prices of items like petrol and coal, the buildup of

    inflationary pressure in manufactured goods is largely the result of rising

    prices of raw materials and industrial inputs and which are being passed

    on by manufacturers in the final prices of their products.

    Let us now look at the phase wise inflationary trends4 in India over the

    past 18 months

    3 Current State of IndianEconomy , June 2011

    4 Speech by Mr Deepak Mohanty , Executive Director of the Reserve Bank of India, atthe Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Guwahati, 3 September 2011

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    This phase was marked by slowing down of price pressu

    There was a slowdown in overall IIP growth

    The trend of moderating inflation and consolidating gro

    Bank

    Liquidity continued to remain in deficit , rates in all the

    The moderately declining trend in inflati

    Spurt in food inflation as unseasonal rain

    Stronger than expected pass-through o

    High global commodity prices and their l

    persist

    Evidence of demand pressure from incre

    P hase- wise trend of inflation from October ,09 to present

    Phase I October 2009March 2010 Phase II

    AprilJuly 2010

    Phase III AugustNovember 2010 Phase IV December

    2010 onwards

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    er cent in October 2009 to above 10 per cent by March 2010

    200910, which adversely affected the food prices

    this period. Manufactured non-food products inflation also reverted to its medium-term trend

    this phase

    be increased to bring them to the pre crisis level

    Year-on-year WPI inflation remained stubborn around 10 per cent and the index advanced by 3.

    High Food prices especially from protein rich food(supply side constraint) and rising petroleum

    While the level of inflation had increased, industrial production was showing a declining trend

    Weak US recovery and concerns over sovereign debt sustainability in euro area during this peri

    Policy rates were raised thrice and the CRR was raised once

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    1. Policies to Control Inflation:

    An important point to consider is that inflation comes from more than one

    source. Rising prices are not simply the result of increasing aggregatedemand but also of higher costs of production and the direct and indirect

    effects of changes in government policies. It is also important to note that

    many inflationary impulses come from outside the domestic economy -

    namely from external shocks in the global economic system - many of

    which an individual country has no control to change.

    Thinking about the domestic economy, inflation can be reduced by

    policies that

    1. slow down the growth of aggregate demand (AD) or

    2. boost the rate of growth of aggregate supply (AS)

    The main anti-inflation controls available to a government are:

    Fiscal policy:

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    If the government believes that aggregate demand is too high, it may

    choose to tighten fiscal policy by reducing its own spending on public

    and merit goods or welfare payments. Or it can choose to raise direct

    taxes, leading to a reduction in real disposable income. These fiscalpolicies increase the rate of leakages from the circular flow and reduce

    injections into the circular flow of income and will reduce demand pull

    inflation.

    The consequence may be that demand and output are lower which has an

    effect on jobs and real economic growth in the short-term. A fiscal

    tightening will have the effect of reducing the size of the budget deficit.

    Hence it is not a preferred measure to combat inflation.

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    Supply side economic policies and government initiatives:

    Supply side policies include those that seek to increase productivity,

    competition and innovation all of which can maintain lower prices. These

    are important ways of controlling inflation in the medium term. If the

    economy can raise its underlying growth rate, then a higher level of

    aggregate demand can be sustained without leading to acceleration in the

    rate of inflation.

    A very effective way to reduce the cost push inflation is also by direct

    intervention by government or prices and incomes' policy. This is when

    government takes measures to restrict the increase in wages (incomes)

    and prices.

    There are two types of direct intervention:

    Statutory - government freezes wages and prices; and

    Voluntary - government tries through argument and persuasion to

    make firms adopt smaller prices and wages.

    The problems with direct intervention are:

    The confrontation with trade unions and employers.

    Also because the prices are much more easily controlled in public

    sector, it tends to discriminate in favour of private sector.

    It also distorts market forces, since expanding sectors can't find any

    new workers, because of the low price, whereas declining sectors

    hold on to theirs.

    This policy also tends not to take account the differentials, usually

    flat base policy is used (e.g. every worker can get a pay rise of Rs.4

    a week), which is unfair to people earning higher salaries as their

    percentage pay rise is much smaller.

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    Direct intervention policy is more effective in short-term, but it stores up

    trouble for the future, because prices tend to rise rapidly as soon as the

    policy is abandoned.

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    Monetary policy:

    A tightening of monetary policy involves the central bank taking a series

    of measures to reduce consumer and investment spending. Monetary

    policy is designed mainly to control demand-pull inflationary pressures.

    The primary measures followed by the central bank are as follows:

    Bank Rate Policy: Increase rate at which RBI lends to other banks

    (repo rate) and hence the rate at which banks lend to the

    customers.

    Open Market Operations: Sell government securities and price

    bonds in open market to reduce money supply in the market.

    Variable Reserve Ratio: Increase the CRR and SLR Ratios

    Demonetization of Currency: To reduce black money

    Issue of New Currency: Most extreme step

    However the most common mechanism used is the interest rate. It is both

    the most effective and the most convenient measure to control inflation

    so far.

    Monetary policy thus can control the growth of demand through an

    increase in interest rates and a contraction in the real money supply.

    The effects of higher interest rates are as follows.

    Higher interest rates reduce aggregate demand in three main ways;

    Discouraging borrowing by both households and companies

    Increasing the rate of saving (the opportunity cost of spending

    has increased)

    The rise in mortgage interest payments will reduce homeowners'

    real 'effective' disposable income and their ability to spend.

    Increased mortgage costs will also reduce market demand in the

    housing market

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    Business investment may also fall, as the cost of borrowing funds will

    increase. Some planned investment projects will now become unprofitable

    and, as a result, aggregate demand will fall.

    Higher interest rates could also be used to limit monetary inflation. Arise in real interest rates should reduce the demand for lending and

    therefore reduce the growth of broad money.

    Indirectly, high interest rates lead to reduced business borrowings, thus

    causing reduction in output. This leads to reduced income and hence

    reduced demand.

    The most appropriate way to control inflation in the short term is for the

    government and the central bank to operate fiscal and monetary policy to

    keep control of aggregate demand to a level consistent with our

    productive capacity.

    The standard consensus among economists (until recently) has been that

    aggregate demand is probably better controlled through the use of

    monetary policy rather than an over-reliance on using fiscal policy as an

    instrument of demand-management. But in the long run, it is the growth

    of a countrys supply-side productive potential that gives an economy the

    flexibility to grow without suffering from acceleration in cost and price

    inflation.

    Governments response to inflation in India

    Governments main response to the question of inflation has been to try and

    manage it through monetary measures. As a result, it has hiked rates 13 times in

    the last 19 months! This is reflected in the fact that the RBI increased all keyrates (like Cash Reserve ratio, repo rate etc) in the economy which was followed

    by the banks raising the interest rates for home loans and other loans. This is

    done with the basic assumption that with an increase in the interest rate, the

    demand in the economy will decrease and this will lead to a reduction in the

    inflation rate.

    Recent Policy Measures

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    Monetary policy measures: The most recent changes were made during RBI's

    Q2 review of monetary policy FY12 on October 25, 20111

    1. Interest rate hikes: Repo rate hiked to 8.5% and reverse repo rate hikes to

    7.5%. The RBI has also revised down its growth forecast for the fiscal year

    ending in March to 7.6% from 8% with a downside bias earlier, while sticking

    with its forecast that headline wholesale price index inflation will ease to 7% at

    the end of the fiscal year.

    2. Deregulation of savings bank interest rates with immediate effect: It

    has also deregulated savings bank interest rates with immediate effect. Savings

    bank account rate will be linked with the policy rate at which the central bank

    lends short-term funds to commercial banks

    Non Monetary Policy measures2:

    1. Reduction of import duties on wheat, rice and pulses, a ban on the export

    of non-basmati rice and the suspension of futures trading in rice, urad and

    tur dal.

    2. The government has extended the stock limit orders for pulses, paddy and

    rice and reduced import duty on skimmed milk powder, among other

    measures.

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    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/key-highlightsrbis-q2-reviewmonetary-policy-fy12_605347.htmlhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/key-highlightsrbis-q2-reviewmonetary-policy-fy12_605347.htmlhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/key-highlightsrbis-q2-reviewmonetary-policy-fy12_605347.htmlhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/key-highlightsrbis-q2-reviewmonetary-policy-fy12_605347.html
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    Impact of the Monetary Policy3,4:

    The monetary tightening effected so far by the Reserve Bank has helped in containing

    inflation and anchoring inflationary expectations, though both remain at levels beyond

    the Reserve Bank's comfort zone. Infract, India's food inflation rate fell significantly to 6.6

    per cent for the week ended November 26, 2011

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    Shortcomings of the policy5:

    Cannot simultaneously simulate economic demand to reduce

    unemployment and restrain demand to combat inflation

    It is restricted by fiscal policy and other regulatory policies

    Limited by supply side factors: Inadequate storage capacity to

    store grains and agriculture produce

    Transportation Measures needed to be addressed

    Additional expenditure needed on part of the Government to check

    rampant increase in food prices

    Problems of inflexible labor market and inadequate infrastructure also

    limit the effectiveness of monetary policy

    This over reliance of the Government on the monetary instruments to resolve

    every problem of the economy cannot work in long run. What is needed to tackle

    the problems of the Indian economy is fiscal prudence coupled with increase in

    purchasing power of the poor by increasing Government expenditure particularly

    in the rural areas. The answer therefore lies in the struggle for an alternative set

    of development policies.

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    1. Why is inflation a necessary evil?

    Ask any investment banker, policy maker, economist or any government,

    about inflation, and you can see the expression of the face turning from

    docile to a -hostile one. Such is the effect of the word inflation itself. But

    as economists and realists we need to delve into the fact that if we want

    our economy to grow, we have to take in count that inflation will poke his

    head to haunt us and as opportunists we need to find out how we can use

    inflation to our maximum benefit and is inflation itself bad for the

    economy or is it a necessary evil.

    Some of the benefits of inflation are

    1. Money Creation We know that the government issues and

    sells bonds, and spends the proceeds to account for government

    spending and does not typically create money, but if the bonds

    are bought by the central bank, which then creates or injects

    money into the system to pay for them, the result is the same.

    This revenue from money creation allow the government to

    borrow less from public or to lower the taxes. But this advantage

    is more relevant to countries with very high inflation rates.

    2. More flexibility to fight recession - An economy with a higher

    average inflation rate has more scope to use monetary policy to

    fight recession as against an economy with a low average inflation

    rate as the one with the low inflation rate may find itself unable to

    use monetary policy to return output to the natural level of output

    in case of recessionary times. Eg- United States, has low inflation

    and low nominal interest rates and after the recession set in 2008,

    the room for monetary policy to help avoid a decline in output was

    clearly limited.

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    3. Business Growth Controlled growth of inflation can be a boon

    for us as when there is controlled inflation, people spend their

    money on buying goods and services since they are afraid of

    rising prices in the future and thus savings are frequently investedto avoid net loss when housed in banks leading to more output in

    the market.

    4. Avoid deflationary environment Lowering inflation has more

    adverse effects as if inflation stoops down to deflationary levels, it

    causes severe disadvantages of lower spending as there would be

    an incentive to hold on to purchases when prices are falling,

    liquidity trap as even lowering interest rates would be ineffective

    in increasing demand, debt becomes an increasing burden

    reducing spending and economic growth. So some amount of

    inflation is absolutely necessary to keep the economy afloat.

    Optimal inflation Rate

    The debate in the OECD countries is largely between the rates of at least,

    say 3-4% and the rate of 0% inflation. How much inflation is healthy for

    the economy is the real question and depends on what kind of economy

    we are.

    Those who agree with the 4% minimum inflation rate give the reason as

    the cost of inflation are comparatively small as against the benefits of

    inflation and say some of the costs of inflation like shoe-leather costs,

    inflation variability etc could be avoided by indexing the tax system and

    issuing more indexed bonds or using inflation indexed bonds. Also

    lowering inflation rate may result in unemployment in the short run which

    in turn can lead to lowering down the benefits of lowering it down in the

    first place.

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    Economists in favor of price stability, aim for 0% inflation rate as the

    prices would remain more or less the same over the year which eliminates

    the scope for money illusion and money market volatility. But generally,

    central banks worldwide are in the favor of low but positive inflationdepending on the type of economic development and the rates would lie

    between 2% - 5% in different economies.

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    1. Lessons learnt and the way ahead :

    Some of the lessons learnt in our study are

    1. The extent to which food price inflation affects consumer welfare

    depends on the degree of price transmission. The degree of

    transmission of world market prices to domestic prices is at the heart

    of national food security policies and is cause of concern for us.

    2. Price controls alone have not been not very effective at limiting food

    price inflation as price controls negatively affect supply by creating

    perverse incentives to producers.

    3. Liberal trade policies benefit consumers as efforts to curtail food

    exports rarely succeed, and they generate significant negative

    externalities.

    4. Public grain reserves have played an important role in dealing with the

    food. Crisis as some observers have called for collective action on

    stocks, whereby individual countries would set aside some of their

    grain reserves as part of a new international coordinated global food

    reserve managed by a highlevel committee.

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    REFERENCES:

    Policies to Control Inflation, Geoff Riley,

    (http://tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economics/comments/as-macro-

    revision-policies-to-control-inflation/)

    Economic policies to Control Inflation

    http://tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/inflation/controlling_inflatio

    n.htm

    How to Control inflation, Business Standard, 2 April 2008

    Deepak Mohanty: Monetary policy response to recent inflation in India

    Inflation and relative prices (article by Mihir Rikshit)

    http://rbi.org.in/scripts/bs_viewcontent.aspx?Id=2430

    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-08-

    18/news/29900601_1_food-inflation-annual-basis-rate-of-price-rise:

    http://indusfinance.com/2011/06/17/impact-of-rbi-policy-rates-on-

    inflation-a-critical-review/

    http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/loans-to-get-costlier-as-rbi-hikes-

    key-rates-yet-again/1/18734.html

    http://www.slideshare.net/CMVerma/rbi-monetary-policy

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