methodology and preliminary results for eu-25 projections of ghg emissions from waste in the gains...
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Methodology and preliminary results for EU-25 projections of GHG emissions from waste in the
GAINS model
Lena Höglund, IIASA
The GAINS model for GHG
GAINS
PRIMES CO2
CH4
N2O
HFCs,PFCs,SF6
SO2, NOX,NH3, PM,
VOCfrom RAINS
Results:
• Emission projections 2005-2030 for 42 European Regions for scenarios: no control (NOC), current legislation (CLE) maximum feasible reduction (MFR)
• Abatement costs for all scenarios
• Interaction effects with other pollutants
Waste sector emission sources in GAINS
Waste incineration: CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, NH3, CH4
Biodegradable waste treatment: CH4, (CO2)
Wastewater handling: CH4, N2O
Agricultural waste: SO2, NOx, PM, VOC, CH4
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
IPCC methodology based on:
• Amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated
• Emissions per unit of MSW
• Fraction of degradable organic carbon in MSW
• Fraction of MSW disposed of to landfill
Problem with using IPCC methodology for projections:
• Main control options are options diverting biodegradable waste away from landfills, which changes all parameters above.
Methodology used in GAINS:
Parameters used to calculate no control emissions:• Amounts of biodegradable waste generated:
Amount of paper waste (CEPI, 2002): Average annual paper consumption increase 1995-2002
assumed to continue until 2015 and no increase thereafter.
Amount of organic (i.e. food and garden) waste (IPCC, AEAT):Organic waste generation per capita constant over time.
• Emission factors for biodegradable waste disposed of to uncontrolled landfill:
0.150 kt CH4/kt paper waste (AEAT, 1998 and Micales and Skog, 1997)
0.082 kt CH4/kt organic waste (AEAT, 1998)
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
Paperconsumed*
Paper in municipal solid waste (MSW)
flow(95% of paperconsumed)
Paper scatteredwithout CH4 emissions
(5% of paperconsumed)
Paper recycling
Incineration
Capped landfill with gas recovery and utilization
Uncontrolled landfill
Capped landfill with gas recovery and flaring
Paper waste flow:
*Average annual paper consumption increase 1995-2002 assumed to continue until 2015 and constant thereafter.
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
Organic waste in the
municipal solid waste
flow
Large-scale composting
Incineration
Biogasification
Capped landfill with gas recovery and flaring
Capped landfill with gas recovery and utilization
Uncontrolled landfill
Organic waste flow:
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
Controlled CH4 emissions from biodegradable waste:
[ ]1
* * *(1 )n
i i ii
Emissions Q ef Appl remeff=
= -å
where i = 1,…,n are different waste diversion options,Q amount of biodegradable wasteef no control emission factorAppl application rate of control optionremeff removal efficiency of control option
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
Current legislation (CLE) scenario:
Current legislation considered: Landfill Directive (April, 1999)
Reductions from 1995 level of biodegradable waste to landfills:
2006: -25%2009: -50% + gas recovery at all landfills2016: -65%
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
Current legislation (CLE) scenario:
Starting point for projections:
• Current levels of paper recycling, composting, incineration and landfilling with and without gas recovery.
Projections:
• Landfill Directive fulfilled in all EU-25 primarily through increased recycling and composting.
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
Maximum (technically) feasible reduction (MFR) scenario:
MFR assumptions for application of paper waste control options:
• Paper recycling applied to a maximum.
• Maximum collection rate is 75% of paper consumed (CEPI, 2003).
• Paper waste not recycled is incinerated.
• No paper waste landfilled.
Estimations of CH4 emissions from biodegradable solid waste in GAINS
MFR assumptions for application of organic waste control options:
• Large-scale composting applied to a maximum.
• Maximum generation of compost from organic waste is estimated to 49 to 124 kg per person and year, with mean 80 kg per person and year (AEAT, 1998), which is assumed for NMS.
• Organic waste not composted is treated through biogasification.
• No organic waste landfilled.
Maximum (technically) feasible reduction (MFR) scenario:
Preliminary resultsPreliminary CLE projections in GAINS for CH4 emissions from waste sector in 2000-2030
(2000=1)
AUSTBELG
CYPR
CZRE
DENM
ESTO
FINL
FRANGERM
GREE
HUNG
ITAL
LATV
LITH
LUXE
MALT
NETH
PORT
SKRE
SLOV
SPAI
SWED
UNKI
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Comparison to Member States projections 2010 (EEA, 2004)(Emissions from waste and wastewater sectors)
0
150
300
450
600
750
900AU
ST
BELG
CYP
R
CZR
E
DEN
M
ESTO FIN
L
FRAN
GER
M
GR
EE
HU
NG
IREL
ITAL
LATV
LITH
LUXE
MAL
T
NET
H
POLA
POR
T
SKR
E
SLO
V
SPAI
SWED
UN
KI
kt C
H4/
year
CLE 2010 MFR 2010 MS 2010
Conclusions
• In CLE, EU-15 emissions of CH4 from waste sector expected to increase or remain constant in 2000-2030, due to already low levels in 2000 and expected increase in amount of biodegradable waste.
• In CLE, NMS emissions of CH4 from waste sector expected to decrease in 2000-2030 as a result of fulfilling the Landfill Directive requirements.
• In 2010, MS projections for AUST, CZRE, ESTO, GREE, LATV, POLA, PORT, SKRE, SLOV exceed the estimated emission level required by the Landfill Directive.
• In 2010, MS projections for BELG, DENM, FINL, FRAN, ITAL, SWED, UNKI are lower than estimated maximum technically feasible emission level.
More info on: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tap/RainsWeb/or [email protected]