Monitoring ofthe Global Surface Climate

Ayako Takeuchi Climate Prediction Division, JMA

Outline

1. Introduction

2. Data Source

3. Monthly Products

4. Weekly Products

INTRODUCTION

Products of CPD/JMA

ImpactsImpacts

DisastersDisasters

Climate InformationClimate InformationClimate InformationClimate Information

MonitoringMonitoringMonitoringMonitoringPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction

Surface Surface ClimateClimateSurface Surface ClimateClimate

Climate Climate SystemSystemClimate Climate SystemSystem

Needs for Global Climate Information

Climate Change

• Increase of climate extremes

Globalization of socio-economical activities

• Foods security

• International disaster relief

Contents of CPD Global Climate Information

MONTHLY PROCUCTS Figures ・ Temperature anomaly ・ Normalized temperature anomaly ・ Precipitation ratio ・ Precipitation quintile ・ Extreme climate Comments (Highlight, Extreme climate) Data Lists

WEEKLY PRODUCTS Figures ・ Extreme climate and weather disaster ・ Reference data (Temperature and its anomaly Precipitation and its ratio Atmospheric circulation and convection) Comment ・ Name of extreme climate and area ・ Damage from disaster

DATA SOURCE

Process of making Global Climate Information

Database of weather disastersDatabase of weather disasters

・ Collection and quality check of meteorological data

・ Identification of extreme climate events

・ Analysis of the relations with general circulation

・ Weather disaster information

・ Collection and quality check of meteorological data

・ Identification of extreme climate events

・ Analysis of the relations with general circulation

・ Weather disaster information

Objective Analysis Data of Meteorological Satellites

Objective Analysis Data of Meteorological Satellites

CLIMAT messages (1500)

SYNOP messages (4000-5000)

CLIMAT messages (1500)

SYNOP messages (4000-5000)

Reports（ temperature, precipitation, extreme

climate events ）

Reports（ temperature, precipitation, extreme

climate events ）Monthly

TCC Home Page

Weekly

CLIMAT and SYNOP messages are exchanged via the GTS

CLIMAT and SYNOP Main Source of Products

CLIMAT messagesreporting monthly value

(Surface Pressure,Temperature,

Precipitation, etc.)

CLIMAT messagesreporting monthly value

(Surface Pressure,Temperature,

Precipitation, etc.)

SYNOP messagesreporting present value

4 times a day

SYNOP messagesreporting present value

4 times a day

MONTHLY PRODUCTS

Quality Check of CLIMAT Temperature

JMA’s Definition of Extreme ClimateThe Criteria for Monthly Data

EXTREME CLIMATEThe phenomenon that would occur once in about 30 years

EXTREME MONTHLY CLIMATE

Temperature : the normalized anomaly 2≧ the normalized anomaly -2≦

the normalized anomaly = anomaly / standard deviation

Precipitation : Quintile = 6 or 0Quintile 6 : the precipitation is greater than any value in 1971 - 2000 0 : the precipitation is less than any value in 1971 - 2000

Climatological normals are calculated from the statistics of 1971 - 2000 data.

TCC Homepage (URL) for Meteorological Services

http://cpd2.kishou.go.jp/tcc/

Where can you get CPD Global Climate Information?

Monthly Climate Information

Products of monitoring of surface climate

Monthly Mean Temperature Anomaly

Products of monitoring of surface climate

Monthly Mean Temperature Anomaly (normalized) Category

Products of monitoring of surface climate

Monthly Precipitation Category

Products of monitoring of surface climate

Monthly Precipitation Ratio Category

Products of monitoring of surface climate

Monthly Precipitation Quintle

Products of monitoring of surface climate

Distribution of Extreme Monthly Climate

Monthly Extreme Climate (October 2003)1. Heavy precipitation in central Siberia2. Heavy precipitation in northern China 3. Heavy precipitation in Southeast Asia 4. Heavy precipitation from southwestern Russia to northwestern Africa 5. Low temperature in central Europe 6. High temperature in western Africa 7. High temperature in southeastern Africa 8. High temperature and heavy precipitation from Greenland to northeastern Canada 9. High temperature from middle-western to western USA 10. Heavy precipitation in Mexico 11. High temperature around the Caribbean Sea 12. High temperature in northern Argentina 13. Light precipitation in central Argentina 14. Low temperature in southeastern Australia

•Products for monthly climate•Using CLIMAT message

WEEKLY PRODUCTS

•Products for weekly climate •Using SYNOP messages

Quality Check for SYNOP data

Monthly precipitation estimated from SYNOP 0mm

CLIMAT precipitation 　　 15mm

Example of quality check for SYNOP data

Daily precipitation estimated from SYNOP

We use this observatory’s data carefully.

EXTREME MONTHLY CLIMATE

Temperature : the normalized anomaly 2≧ the normalized anomaly -2≦

the normalized anomaly = anomaly / standard deviation

Precipitation : Quintile = 6 or 0Quintile 6 : the precipitation is greater than any value in 1971 - 2000 0 : the precipitation is less than any value in 1971 - 2000

Weekly Extreme Climate

EXTREME CLIMATEThe phenomenon that would occur once in about 30 years

Temperature : the normalized anomaly 3 : ≧ WARM the normalized anomaly -3 : ≦ COLD the normalized anomaly = anomaly / 30-day standard deviation anomaly = weekly mean temperature - weekly normal

Precipitation : precipitation in a week exceeds the 30-day normal : WET precipitation in the last 30-day is less than the threshold of quintile 1 for the 30-day : DRY

Weekly normal, 30-day normal, 30-day standard deviation and 30-day quintile are calculatedby interpolating monthly values of the previous (or following) and the current month.Monthly normals are calculated from the statistics of 1971 - 2000 data.

The criteria are decided from research for Japanese observatories.

Products of monitoring of surface climate

Distribution of Extreme Weekly Climate

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

　　　 1 October, 2003 Japan Meteorological Agency

Weekly Report on Global Extreme Climate Events ( 24 September, 2003 - 30 September, 2003 )

Extreme weather and climate events and/or weather disasters in this period are as follows ;

1. Wet : northern China

2. Warm : central China

3. Cold : northwestern China to eastern Kazakhstan

4. Wet : northern and central India

5. Wet : northern Algeria, Tunisia and northern Italy

6. Warm : northeastern USA and eastern Canada to southern Greenland

7. Hurricane : eastern Canada Hurricane “Juan” made landfall on eastern Canada on 29 September. In eastern Canada, fatalities caused by Hurricane were reported.

8. Warm : western USA

9. Dry : eastern Australia

10. Wet : southwestern Australia

Weekly Climate Information

Reference figure for weekly climate

850hPa wind vector, OLR and its anomaly(W/m2)

500hPa height and anomaly(m)

Reference figure for weekly climate

Weekly temperature anomaly(℃)

Weekly precipitation ratio(%)

Weekly Climate Information

Thank you!

Reference ： QuintileAmount ofprecipitaion

Upper and Lowerlimit of Quintile Quintile

0.0-4.9 051838485661646986104105119124155163164175203224236236239249254257293335344349411

>=411.1 6

255.6-411.0

1

2

3

4

5

5.0-62.5

62.6-121.5

121.6-213.5

213.6-255.5

The 30 monthly values of precipitation, the statistical period of calculation for climatological normals, are listed in ascending order.

The list is then divided into five groups of quintiles of six values each.

The first quintile contains the lowest 6 values and the fifth quintile contains the highest 6 values.

Example

60.0mm => quintile 1

220.0mm => quintile 4

420.0mm => quintile 6