monreal del campo calamocha appendix 4 a23...

March 2011 | Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS 1

Appendix 4 – A23 Motorway in Spain


This chapter presents the results of the ex post analysis for the project covering

the construction of four sections of the A23 motorway in Spain.

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 Project overview

Location

The Cohesion Fund contributions for the period 2000-2006 cover two sections

of the A23 motorway, between Teruel and Calamocha and between Huesca and

Nueno.

Figure 1. A23 Motorway. Sections funded by the Cohesion Fund 2000-06

Source: Openstreetmap.org

The A23 motorway in Spain (also called Autovía Mudéjar) is a high capacity road

connecting Sagunto, on the Mediterranean coast just north of Valencia, and the

Somport road tunnel. The tunnel connects Spain and France through the central

Pyrenees. It was opened in 2003. Although the A23 is not part of any TEN-T

corridor, it belongs to the European route E07 connecting Pau in France to

Zaragoza in Spain. Currently, the A23 motorway is completed between Sagunto

and Nueno. The remaining sections between Nueno and the Somport tunnel are

either under construction or in advanced planning stages. At this point, it is

Teruel

Huesca

Nueno

Monreal del Campo

Santa Eulalia

Calamocha

Teruel

Huesca

Nueno

Monreal del Campo

Santa Eulalia

Calamocha

Teruel

Huesca

Nueno

Monreal del Campo

Santa Eulalia

Calamocha

Teruel

Huesca

Nueno

Monreal del Campo

Santa Eulalia

Calamocha

2 Frontier Economics, Atkins, ITS | March 2011


unclear when the A23 motorway will be completed. Recent budget cuts

announced by the Spanish government in July 2010 are likely to cause delays.1

Description

The project under analysis comprises four subprojects, namely one 11.5 km-long

segment between Huesca and Nueno, and three adjacent segments between

Teruel Norte and Calamocha, for a total of 63.5 km. The two sections are 178

km apart. Table 1 summarises the subprojects considered in this evaluation,

indicating also their completion date and total cost (including the share provided

by the Cohesion Fund).

All four segments are located in Aragon, in north-east Spain, bordering with

France to the north, in the Pyrenees. The capital city of Aragón is Zaragoza, the

fifth largest Spanish city. Aragón has three provinces: Zaragoza, Huesca and

Teruel. The A23 sections considered in this analysis are located in the provinces

of Huesca and Terual. Both provinces cover a total extension of 30,000 km2

(about the size of Belgium) and have a total population of 370,000 people.

Table 1. Subprojects making up the project

Subprojects (province)

- code

Completion

date

Description of the

subproject

Cost

(% CF)

Huesca to Nueno (Huesca) -

1999ES16CPT002 December 2000

11.5 Km motorway including

a viaduct of 70 metres long

23 € million

(85%)

Monreal del Campo to

Calamocha (Teruel) -

1999ES16CPT003

July 2001 14.8 Km motorway 34 € million

(85%)

Santa Eulalia del Campo to

Monreal del Campo (Teruel) -

1999ES16CPT004

July 2001 21.9 Km motorway 78 € million

(85%)

Teruel (N) to Santa Eulalia del

Campo (Teruel) -

2003ES16CPT029

December 2005

26.8 Km motorway, with two

viaducts of 100 and 231

metres long

70 € million

(85%)

Source: Application forms

In the three subprojects with code 1999ES16CPT002, -003, -004, works started

between 1998 and 1999 and finished between the end of 2000 and mid 2001. In

the fourth subproject, 2003ES16CPT029, works started in 2002 and finished at

the end of 2005.

1 http://www.fomento.es/NR/rdonlyres/BD8EBB62-047D-42C2-8639-

8C79651C83BE/76288/Impactoajustepresupuestario.pdf

http://www.fomento.es/NR/rdonlyres/BD8EBB62-047D-42C2-8639-8C79651C83BE/76288/Impactoajustepresupuestario.pdf

http://www.fomento.es/NR/rdonlyres/BD8EBB62-047D-42C2-8639-8C79651C83BE/76288/Impactoajustepresupuestario.pdf



4.1.2 Context

Socio-economic context

The project was developed during a period of high and sustained economic

growth in Spain. While we focus the description of the socio-economic context

on the provinces of Teruel and Huesca, to provide some perspective we also

refer to figures at the regional and the national for comparison. Regional and

national figures are useful because they also account for the impact of other

infrastructure projects being developed at the same time as the A23. For

example, the high-speed rail line between Madrid and Barcelona arrived to

Zaragoza at about the same time this project was completed.2

Figure 2 and Figure 3 show time series of GDP per capita and unemployment

in the provinces of Teruel and Huesca, in Aragón and in Spain. The charts show

the period of sustained growth that lasted until 2007. Figure 3 also shows the

effects of the economic crisis on unemployment from 2008 onwards. The

evolution of both series is similar in all the areas considered, although the levels

of unemployment in Aragon, and Teruel and Huesca, are lower that those for

Spain.

Figure 2. GDP - Evolution of GDP per capita.

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE)

2 The some sections of the AVE Madrid – Barcelona that received Cohesion Funds during the period 2000-

2006 are also subject in the current exercise.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GD

P p

er

cap

ita

(E

UR

)

Huesca (province)

Teruel (province)

Aragon (region)

SPAIN



Figure 3. Unemployment - Evolution of unemployment rate.

Source: Encuesta de Población Activa (EPA) available at the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE)

Figure 4 shows the population growth in all four areas considered, before and

after the opening of three segments of the A23 under analysis. In the first period,

before the first three segments opened, the population in the provinces of

Huesca and Teruel was growing at much lower rates than in the rest of Spain

(Teruel even showed a negative rate). In the second period, both provinces

showed higher population growth rates, similar to those recorded for Spain as a

whole.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1996

TI

1996

TIII

1997

TI

1997

TIII

1998

TI

1998

TIII

1999

TI

1999

TIII

2000

TI

2000

TIII

2001

TI

2001

TIII

2002

TI

2002

TIII

2003

TI

2003

TIII

2004

TI

2004

TIII

2005

TI

2005

TIII

2006

TI

2006

TIII

2007

TI

2007

TIII

2008

TI

2008

TIII

2009

TI

2009

TIII

2010

TI

Un

em

plo

ye

me

nt

rate

Huesca (province)

Teruel (province)

Aragon (region)

SPAIN



Figure 4. Population growth rate. Average of annual growth rates in period

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística

It is not possible to establish a causal link between the construction of four

sections on the A23 and the changes in population growth. Nonetheless, the new

motorway might have help to bring these peripheral areas closes to larger centres.

This probably turned them into more feasible locations to reside and work.

Strategic policy context

The A23 was one of the fifteen motorways identified by the National

Infrastructure Plan 1993-2007.3 This Plan was later updated into the

Infraestructure Plan 2000-2007.4

The main objective of the A23 was to transform the existing road axis Valencia-

Zaragoza-Somport (French border) into a motorway. This would facilitate the

freight traffic between the Levante (Eastern Spain) and Aragón, in Spain, as well

as France and the rest of Europe. The new was designed to become the natural

route through the central Pyrenees, replacing the existing wide road connections

between Spain and France in both extremes of the Pyrenees, Irun-Hendaya to

the West and La Jonquera to the East.

Additional strategic objectives have been identified in the Funding Applications

for each of the four subprojects.

3 Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Transportes y Medio Ambiente, “Plan Director de Infraestructuras 1994-

2007”, approved in 1994.

4 Ministerio de Fomento, “Plan de Infraestructuras 20000-2007”.

-0.25%

0.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

1999-2001 2002-2008

Po

pu

lati

on

gro

wth

ra

te (

an

nu

al

av

era

ge

s i

n p

eri

od

)Teruel (province) Huesca (province)

Aragon (region) SPAIN



To complete the national motorway network as envisaged in the

Infrastructure Plan in the early 1990s. The A23 was identified as the

fifteenth and last corridor in the Spanish government’s analysis on missing

links in the Spanish motorway network.

To improve the communications with non-coastal areas of Spain, which

were located far from existing main road corridors. Before the project, the

links between Huesca and Teruel and the rest of Spain were slow and

congested, despite their central location.

To achieve significant time savings in a slow roads. In the four segments

under study average speeds were expected to increase.

To decrease the number of accidents and improve overall safety conditions

in the corridor.

The previous Cohesion Fund contributions (1994-1999) had already financed

some sections of the A23 motorway, namely Zaragoza to Huesca and Gilet to

Soneja, and the Somport tunnel.5

4.1.3 Sources

We have relied on a variety of different sources of information provided by DG

REGIO and by stakeholders in Spain. DG REGIO made available the Funding

Applications and Funding Decisions for each of the four subprojects. Each

application provided a detailed description of each subproject, its objectives and

the costs and benefits that it was expected to generate. DG REGIO also

provided additional supporting documentation, such as the initial overall cost-

benefit analysis and final reports for each of the four subprojects. In addition, the

Unidad de Carreteras de Teruel (part of the Dirección General de Carreteras, a

directorate within Ministerio de Fomento) have provided the initial study done

by the Spanish authorities regarding the segment Teruel – Zaragoza of the A23,

which contains three of the four projects under study.6

Table 2 provides the complete list of documents we have used for this

evaluation.

5 http://www.sifemurcia-

europa.com/2002/fondos/pdfs/programa_operativo_fondo_cohesion_feder_2007_2013.pdf

6 Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Transportes y Medio Ambiente, “Estudio Informativo de la Autovía Levante

Aragón, Tramo Teruel – Zaragoza”, Estudio de Rentabilidad, 28 Febrero 1994.

http://www.sifemurcia-europa.com/2002/fondos/pdfs/programa_operativo_fondo_cohesion_feder_2007_2013.pdf

http://www.sifemurcia-europa.com/2002/fondos/pdfs/programa_operativo_fondo_cohesion_feder_2007_2013.pdf



Table 2. Summary of project-related documentation

Documents Obtained from

Funding Applications

All subprojects DG REGIO

Funding Decisions

All subprojects DG REGIO

Ex ante CBA (one for each subproject) DG REGIO

Estudio Informativo,

for the three subprojects in Teruel, segment Teruel - Zaragoza (February 1994)

for the subproject in Huesca, Villanueva de Gállego -Nueno (1992)

Ministerio de Fomento (Teruel, Zaragoza and

Huesca Units)

Methodology used in the economic analysis of the projects, “Recomendaciones para la Evaluación Económica de Estudios y Proyectos de Carreteras”, 1992.

Ministerio de Fomento

Studies on traffic in the A23 around Teruel Ministerio de Fomento

(Teruel, Unit)

Study on socio-economic effects caused by the motorway Somport – Sagunto, CREA, 1992

Government of Aragon

In order for us to carry out the ex post analysis of the project, the Dirección

General de Carreteras from the Ministerio de Fomento made available

significant amounts of data, including outturn costs (both investment and

maintenance), traffic data and journey times for each of the subprojects. We were

also provide with data on accidents and updated values for other parameters.

Table 3 lists the data we have received along with the source.

Table 3. Summary of Primary & Secondary Data Availability

Data Source

Traffic data

Ministerio de Fomento – Demarcacion de Carreteras de Aragón.

Website of MInisterio de Fomento

Infrastructure investment costs Ministerio de Fomento – Demarcacion de Carreteras de Aragón

Infrastructure maintenance costs Ministerio de Fomento

Value of time Ministerio de Fomento

Fuel costs and vehicle operating costs Ministerio de Fomento

Finally, we held meetings with members of the Demarcación de Carreteras del

Estado en Aragón (Ministerio de Fomento), one in Teruel regarding the three



subprojects of the A23 in Teruel and one in Zaragoza regarding the subproject in

Huesca. In both meetings we discussed the following key issues.

Our understanding of the calculations and assumptions underpinning the ex

ante CBA, and of the usefulness of the CBA and other analysis carried out in

the decision-making process leading to the approval of the project.

Our understanding of the post-opening data and the expected future

developments of such figures, such as traffic volumes.

The wider impacts that could be attributed to the A23, especially in the areas

surrounding the subprojects considered in this analysis.

Throughout the study, we have been in close contact with the Dirección General

de Carreteras (Ministerio de Fomento) in order to obtain supplementary

documents and updated parameter values to carry out our ex post CBA.. We

have also been in contact with the Regional Government of Aragón (various

departments) and the provincial administration in Teruel (Diputación de Teruel)

to better understand the impact of this infrastructure in the territory.

We understand that the Ministerio de Fomento is a stakeholder at national level.

Despite this, our experience and the dialogue established with its regional units

have proven successful to both to understand the technical aspects of the project

and also to identify its wider impacts.

4.1.4 Overall issue and challenges with the evaluation.

The project under study comprises four subprojects covering two non-adjacent

segments of the new A23. Individual ex ante CBAs exist for each of the four

subprojects. The first available profitability analyses of these segments were

included in two separate Estudios Informativos, one covering the segment

Teruel-Zaragoza and the other Villanueva de Gállego-Nueno. The latest ex ante

CBAs were prepared together with the applications for funding of each

subproject.

In addition to presenting the results of the ex ante CBA for each project

separately, we have also calculated aggregate economic indicators covering the

four subprojects. In the ex post CBA, we have calculated the costs and benefits

corresponding to each subproject and again we present them both separately and

as an aggregate.

4.2 Ex post cost-benefit analysis

We have carried an ex post CBA for each of the four funded in the period 2000-

2006. Traffic data differ for each segment, both in terms of volumes and timing

(the segments opened in different years). The ex post analysis compares the net



benefits of the implemented subprojects with the counterfactual situation in

which only the old road exists.

While we have calculated the net economic benefits for each subproject, we

present the aggregate results for the project as a whole, using a common discount

rate and the same base year. For each subproject we consider, as in the ex ante

analysis, a 31-year lifetime, over which the net benefits are calculated from the

opening of the segment to traffic.

4.2.1 Headline results from the analysis:

This section contains the key results of the economic and financial analysis.

These results can be later compared with those obtained in the ex ante analysis.

Economic analysis

To carry out the ex post CBA for each of the four subprojects we have

considered a Low Case and a High Case. These scenarios use different

assumptions regarding the traffic growth on the four segments after 2008. The

High Case (optimistic scenario) assumes a constant traffic growth rate, equal to

the average of the long-run traffic growth on the four segments. This is about

5% per year. The Low Case (pessimistic scenario) assumes a constant 2.5%

traffic growth rate after 2008.

We have calculated single economic indicators (NPV, IRR and BCR) covering all

the four subprojects under study, using a 5.5% discount rate. To be consistent

with the ex ante analysis, we have used 1998 as the base year. Table 4

summarises the results of the ex post analysis under both scenarios. We note that

in the Low Case, the NPV of the project is negative.

Table 4. Summary of ex post economic analysis (2010 prices)

Low case High case

Net Present Value (€m) -27.7 27.6

Economic IRR (%) 4.6% 6.3%

Benefit-cost ratio 0.9 1.1

Source: Own calculation

Annexe I provides the detailed results of the cost benefit analysis for each option,

following the structure used in the 2008 EC Guide. The values in these figures

are non-discounted and are expressed in 2010 prices.



Financial analysis

The Funding Applications did not include any financial analysis for any of the

four subprojects under study. This is because the A23 is a toll free motorway and

therefore has no revenues.

Nonetheless, we have done an ex post financial analysis for the whole project,

calculating the annual cashflow. Table 5 summarises the results of the ex post

financial analysis. As the project cashflow is always negative, the IRR is non-

defined. Low Case and High Case yield the same financial NPVs. This is because

capital and maintenance costs are not traffic-related. Hence, they do not change

between scenarios. This assumption is based on the information provided by the

Ministerio de Fomento.

Table 5. Summary of ex post financial analysis (2010 prices)

Low / High case

Net Present Value – Investment (€m) -230

Financial IRR – Investment (%) Not available

Net Present Value – Capital (€m) -55

Financial IRR – Capital (%) Not available


Annexe 1 provides the detailed results of the financial analysis.

Wider socio-economic impacts

The A23 represents a major step-change in the road network of the Aragón

region, and especially in the provinces of Teruel and Huesca. Discussing with

various stakeholders (such as regional and local authorities), we explored the

impact that the A23 has had so far on the territory.

We note that the subprojects under analysis in this evaluation are relatively minor

compared to the whole of the A23. It is therefore difficult to establish causality

links between these investments and any wider impact. Moreover, the A23 is one

of the many interventions that affected the region during the same period. For

example, the high-speed rail link between Madrid and Barcelona, reached

Zaragoza in 2005.

However, for the purpose of this evaluation, we managed to isolate the impacts

that are more specific to the segments considered.

In relation to the three subprojects located in the province of Teruel, we

obtained information about two new infrastructure projects (an industrial park



and an airport) developed in the area since the opening of the first road

segments. In addition, two new road connections with the A23 are currently

under study or in advanced planning stages.

In relation to the subproject Huesca – Nueno, new infrastructures (an industrial

park, a technology centre, and new university buildings) have been developed

along the A23 near Huesca since the opening of the new road. We note however

that these developments are located alongside an older section of the A23 (built

in the previous funding period). Therefore, the causality link with the subproject

under analysis is more tenuous.

4.2.2 Costs

We have grouped costs into two different categories. One-off costs are the

capital investment costs incurred to build the infrastructures. On the other hand,

annual road maintenance is an ongoing cost. The same cost categories were used

in the ex ante analysis.

One-off costs

In general, actual total capital costs did not exceed the expected expenditure

(about €204m). While the subproject Huesco-Nueno was completed with lower

than expected capital costs, the subproject Teruel (N) – Santa Eulalia del Campo

generated some cost overruns. These effects almost offset each other.

Figure 5 shows the evolution of capital expenditure over time. Expenditure

peaked in 2000, when three of the four subprojects approached completion, and

then again in 2004 and 2005 for the completion of the last project.



Figure 5. Capital expenditure 1998 to 2005 (€, 2010 prices)

Source: Ministerio de Fomento

Unit cost calculation

The Ministerio de Fomento provided us with disaggregated cost information

(Level 2) regarding the subprojects Huesca (N) to Nueno and for the project

Teruel – Santa Eulalia. Table 6 provides the results of the Level 2 unit cost

calculation. Data disaggregated at Level 3 is not available.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

EU

R (

Mil

lio

ns)



Table 6. Summary of ex post unit costs (2010 prices)

Non-discounted NPV (@ 5.5%)

Level 1 „All-in‟ (€/km) 2.67 1.939

Level 2

Land (€m/ha) 0.233 Not available

Roadworks (€m/km) 0.621 Not available

Tunnels (€m/km) Not available Not available

Bridge (€m/km) 6.62 Not available


Ongoing costs

The methodology used in the ex ante analysis, which is still in use today to

evaluate new road projects in Spain, assumes that road maintenance costs in

Spain are independent of the volume of traffic. For consistency, we have

followed the same approach for the ex post analysis. In practice, while it

simplifies the analysis, this assumption is not material. Due to the actual absolute

volumes of traffic, maintenance costs are likely to be very similar under both the

Low Case and High Case scenario.

Ministerio de Fomento informed us that the annual maintenance costs of the

segments of the A23 in Teruel and the segment in Huesca are 18,036 €/km and

26,344 €/km respectively.

In addition to the ordinary maintenance costs, Ministerio de Fomento informed

us that in 2006 there some exceptional costs, just above €1m in the segment

Santa Eulália del Campo – Monreal del Campo.

4.2.3 Direct benefits

To calculate the project’s benefits, we have used the same approach

recommended by Ministerio de Fomento in its 1992 methodological document.

The same methodology was used to prepare the ex ante cost benefit analysis.

Ministerio de Fomento regularly updates the parameters it uses to estimate the

monetary value of time savings, vehicle operating costs and fuel costs. We used

the most updated available values.

Traffic volumes

Ministerio de Fomento provides, through its website, data on historic traffic for

the segments of the A23 under study and for the corresponding segments of the

old road. For the three segments between Teruel (N) and Calamocha, the old



road is the road N-234. For the segment Huesca – Nueno, the old road

corresponds to the N-330a.

We discussed about the appropriate use of this traffic data with Ministerio de

Fomento. They confirmed that the A23 motorway did not generate any induced

traffic or modal shift. We were also told that, contrary to what it had been

expected, between 2,000 to 2,500 vehicles (about 20% of total traffic) still use the

old road every day.

Using the historic data, we have calculated the average annual growth rate of

traffic in the segments covered by our study. The average growth rate of traffic

across the four segments considered was 5% between 1999 and 2008.

In order to carry out the ex post CBA for this project we have identified two

possible scenarios for traffic growth, a High Case and a Low Case. The scenarios

differ in the assumed level of traffic growth from 2010 onwards. We have

defined the two scenarios as follows:

High case: we assume that in each year after 2010 traffic on the A23

motorway grows at 5%. This is equal to the actual average annual

growth rate of traffic on the corridor of the A23 between 1999/2000

and 2008.

Low case: we assume a traffic growth rate in this case is 2.5%, equal to

half of the one assumed in the high case scenario.

Our analysis is based only on the traffic on the A23. This is because:

there has not been any new traffic (induced or modal shift) on the A23;

and,

the costs and benefits associated with the traffic that remains on the old

road are the same with or without the A23 being implemented.

Time savings

Most of the direct benefits of the project come from time savings. In the ex ante

cost-benefit analysis, the benefits related to the time savings more than

compensate the negative impact arising from the higher vehicle operating costs

and higher fuel consumption, which we address below.

Ministerio de Fomento provided us with data on average speeds on both the new

and on the old road. We have used this information to calculate the time savings

generated by the new road.



Table 7. Time savings (minutes) generated by the new road

Subprojects Time savings (minutes)

Car and LGV HGV

Huesca to Nueno 0.6 4.7

Monreal del Campo to Calamocha 2.7 0.9

Santa Eulalia del Campo to Monreal del Campo 3.2 0.4

Teruel (N) to Santa Eulalia del Campo 6.5 3.3

Source: Frontier Economics

The Ministerio de Fomento also provided us with the parameter of the value of

time currently used in road projects in Spain. The value of time currently used in

Spain for road projects is 14.63 €/hour for cars and light-goods vehicles (LGVs)

and 25.08 €/hour for heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs). Table 8 summarises the

total value of the time spent travelling on the new road and the old road,

respectively. The difference between the two is the time saving generated by the

new road.

Table 8. Time benefits generated by the new road (2010 prices)

NPV of Cost of Time

(€m)

NPV of Time Benefits

(€m)

With new road 688.20

172.86

With old road (counterfactual) 861.06


Vehicle operating costs

Vehicle operating costs are higher in the new A23 than in the old road. This is

due to the higher speeds that the A23 allows, resulting in higher fuel and oil

consumption and quicker deterioration of car components, mainly tyres, in the

new road. As the length of the two roads (old and new) is almost the same,

differences in speed translate proportionally in different VOC and fuel

consumptions. Because of the increase in VOC, the new road generates a loss

compared with the old one.

Ministerio de Fomento provided us with the parameter values for the cost of

fuel, oil and tyres currently used in road projects in Spain. These are summarised

in Table 9.



Table 9. Unit costs for fuel and tyres

Car and LGV HGV

Petrol (€/litre) 0.58

Diesel (€/litre) 0.59

Oil (€/litre) 4.21 4.71

Tyres(*)

386 5,285

Source: Frontier Economics (*)

4 tyres in cars and LGVs, 6 tyres in HGVs

Petrol and diesel consumption depends on speed. The ex ante analysis provides

value tables for petrol and diesel consumption, as a function of speed and the

characteristics of the road in the subsections under analysis. We have revised the

fuel consumption values using this information and the actual speeds provided

by Ministerio de Fomento. We have used a similar approach to quantify any

change in oil consumption. To calculate tyre consumption, we have used the

parameters provided by the ex ante analysis, which links tyre wearing to speed

and road conditions.

4.2.4 Externalities

Safety

Safety conditions on the A23 are significantly better than on the old road, for all

sections considered in this analysis.

Table 10 shows the annual average number of accidents on the new A23, with

the data for the old road, before the opening of the A23. The total number of

accidents on the A23 is less than half the number of accidents in the old road.

Fatalities have been reduced to zero, from 15 on the old road, while casualties

have fallen from around 120 in 1999 to 20 in 2009.



Table 10. Number of fatalities and injuries

Segment Fatalities Injuries Vehicles/day Year

OLD

ROAD

Huesca to Nueno 4 38 7,773 1999

Teruel(N) to Calamocha 11 84 7,900 (average) 2000

NEW

ROAD

Huesca to Nueno 0 8 9,224 2009

Teruel(N) to Calamocha 0 12 9,450 (average) 2009


Note: Injuries includes severe and non-severe injuries

Ministerio de Fomento provided us with the parameter values related to the

monetary value attached to fatalities and casualties currently used in road project

appraisal in Spain.

Table 11. Monetary value for fatalities and casualties (€, 2010 prices)

Fatalities Casualty

Monetary value 258,342 34,100


Accident costs are calculated using the values shown in Table 11. Given the

historic information on accidents in the subsections, provided by the Ministerio

de Fomento, we have calculated the ratios for fatalities and casualties per

vehicle/day and held this ratio constant for all years in the analysis.

Environmental (noise, pollution, CO2)

The A23 has not generated any induced traffic or any modal shift. Therefore, in

the analysis we have assumed that that externalities related to changes in noise or

pollution levels, if any, are negligible and can be ignored. We understand that the

similar approach was used for the ex ante analysis.

4.2.5 Wider impacts

We have considered the wider impact of these projects in each province.

Teruel

Two new developments took place after the completion of the A23.



The first is a new logistic and industrial park, PLATEA, developed by the

Government of Aragón and managed by Platea Gestión S.A. The objective

of this park is to promote economic and social development in the southern

region of Aragón. It covers an area of around 2.5 million m2. Its location

was chosen thanks for the advantageous position of Teruel, half way

between the Mediterranean coast and the Ebro Valley.

The second is an industrial aeronautical platform, PLATA, offering space for

long-term parking, recycling and maintenance of aircrafts and other related

aeronautical sector activities. PLATA has been developed by the

Government of Aragón and the Teruel City Council. This aeronautical

platform is currently under construction (expected to be completed by late

2010) on the area of the previous Caudé aerodrome and covers an area of

around 2 million m2.

In addition to these developments, the Spanish Government is considering two

new road connections, providing links to the A23. The first and more advanced

project, from Alcolea to Monreal del Campo, is a direct link between the A2

(Madrid to Barcelona) and the A23 roads and will provide more capacity to the

Madrid-Levante corridor. The second, from Cuenca to Teruel, will allow the road

traffic on the axis South-West to North-East of Spain to avoid going through the

congested road around Madrid.

Huesca

Some developments also took place in the region following the completion of the

A23. However, we note that these are all located alongside a section of the

motorway developed prior to the one considered here. Even though we can not

relate these developments to the road segment under study, it is worth

mentioning them, given their proximity and significance. All have recently

opened in the outskirts of Huesca.

New industrial park, PLHUS. It covers an area of around 1.150.000 m2. It is

located near the city of Huesca, halfway between the Cantabrian and the

Mediterranean coastlines along the planned Pamplona - Huesca - Lleida dual

carriageway. The industrial park is located two kilometres southeast of the

city centre.

The technology park, WALQA. It is situated in the outskirts of Huesca, on

the dual carriageway Autovía Mudéjar that directly links to Madrid. It covers

an area of 529.000 m2. Since its opening in 2002 it has been devoted to bring

together technological companies. Its main objective is to become a centre

of interest to R&D innovation, especially in the fields of communications

technology, Internet and e-commerce, contributing to the economic

development of Huesca and consequently of the Aragón region.



A business innovation centre, CEEI. The European Centre of Enterprises

and Innovation of Aragon, CEEIARAGON, is a business incubator with

the mission to support the creation of innovative industries or services that

generate wealth in Aragon. Its main objective is to help entrepren€ial

ventures to consolidate and develop during the first years of life.

In addition to these developments, two new high capacity roads are currently

under construction and will connect to the A23 motorway in Huesca. The A22

motorway will connect Huesca to Lleida. The A21 will connect Pamplona and

Huesca. These two new motorways form an East – West axis road to the south

of the Pyrennes and are a complement to the A23.

Environmental requirements

The four subprojects included in the project under study were covered by two

Estudios Informativos, Villanueva de Gállego to Nueno and Teruel – Zaragoza.

The Spanish Government approved the corresponding DIAs (Environmental

Impact Declaration) related to this two Estudios Informativos in published in the

official state gazette (BOE) on 2nd September 19927 and 26th April 19978,

respectively. Both documents established that the projects were environmentally

viable.

Utilisation rates

We have been informed by the Ministerio de Fomento (Demarcación de

Carreteras de Aragón) that the maximum capacity of the new road ranges from

7,478 vehicles/hour in the Huesca – Nueno section to 8,000 vehicles/hour for

the Teruel – Calamocha section.

We have calculated actual utilisation rates based on traffic demand data for 2008,

provided by the Ministerio de Fomento, and expected utilisation rates for 2036

based on our traffic growth assumptions. Table 12 presents the results.

7 http://www.boe.es/boe/dias/1992/09/02/pdfs/A30318-30323.pdf

8 http://www.boe.es/boe/dias/1997/04/26/pdfs/A13511-13517.pdf



Table 12. Utilisation rates

2008 2036 High case 2036 Low case

Huesca – Nueno 5.0% 19.6% 10.0%

Teruel - Calamocha 4.8% 18.8% 9.6%


Other projects

Various high capacity roads are currently under construction/study and will be

linked to the A23 motorway on or close to the segments considered in this

analysis. The new A21 and A22 roads connecting Huesca to Pamplona and

Lleida are currently under construction. Two additional roads, connecting Teruel

to Cuenca and Alcolea (on the A2) to Monreal del Campo, are currently under

study. These new road infrastructures will establish additional links with the A23

motorway, enhancing its potential to achieve the stated objectives for these

projects.

Unintended effects

The ex ante cost-benefit analysis assumed that, after opening the A23, the old

road would only carry residual traffic (tráfico de agitación). In reality, the N-234 in

Teruel and the N-330 in Huesca still carry a significant volume of traffic,

currently between 2,000 and 2,500 vehicles a day.

4.2.6 Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

The ex post analysis carried out for this project uses comprehensive historic data

on traffic until 2008. We have had make an assumption regarding the traffic

growth rate parameter when considering the two scenarios in the analysis.

Historic data and current impacts

Historic traffic data for this project is available through website of the Ministerio

de Fomento. We also received more data and guidance on how to use it during

the stakeholder meetings we had with members of the Ministerio de Fomento, in

Teruel and Zaragoza (this last regarding the segment Huesca). Apart from

receiving data we were informed that according to their analysis the A23 has not

generated new traffic, either induced or modal shift.

Forecast of impacts

In order to carry out the ex post CBA for this project we have identified two

possible scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic one. Both scenarios differ in



the assumed level of traffic growth from 2010 onwards. To decide on the traffic

growth rate for each scenario, we have taken into account the actual traffic

growth rate in each segment since opening.

High case: we assume that in each year after 2010 traffic on the A23

motorway grows at 5%. This is equal to the actual average annual

growth rate of traffic on the corridor of the A23 between 1999/2000

and 2008.

Low case: we assume a traffic growth rate in this case is 2.5%, equal to

half of the one assumed in the high case scenario.

We note that we have not considered the possible network effects that the

construction of the Somport tunnel will have on the whole traffic demand,

especially for the Huesca – Nueno segment. This is because the tunnel is not

expected to be finalised in the near future.

4.3 Review ex ante cost-benefit analysis

The first assessments of the four subprojects included in this project were carried

out in 19929 and 1994.10 These were part of public information procedures

(Estudio Informativo) covering large segments of the A23 (Villanueva de Gállego –

Nueno and Teruel – Zaragoza). These assessments included a profitability

analysis for each of the subprojects under analysis. They also considered costs

and benefits of different alternatives for each subproject. Later, in 1999 and

2003, and before the submission of the application for subsidies were submitted

for each subproject, the Ministerio de Fomento prepared an ex ante CBA of the

main implementation option for each subproject. We have focused the review of

the ex ante CBA on these analyses. For all four of them, the methodology used

is the one recommended by the Spanish Public Works Ministry in 1992.11

Given that a unique ex ante CBA covering all four subprojects does not exist, we

present the results of the four individual ex ante CBA carried out at the time.

Note that the four ex ante CBA do not use the same base year and discount rates

to calculate the net present value and IRR indicators. We start reporting the

figures included in the original submissions and then present the same indicators

using a common base year and discount rate.

9 Ministerio de Obras Públicas, Transportes y Medio Ambiente, “Estudio Informativo de la Autovía

Levante Aragón, Tramo Villanueva de Gállego - Nueno”, Estudio de Rentabilidad, 1992.


Levante Aragón, Tramo Teruel – Zaragoza”, Estudio de Rentabilidad, 28 Febrero 1994.

11 Ministerio de Obras Públicas y Transportes – Dirección General de Carreteras, “Recomendaciones

para la Evaluación Económica de Estudios y Proyectos de Carreteras”, 1992.



4.3.1 Headline results from the analysis

Economic analysis

The ex ante CBAs prepared by Ministerio de Fomento, and used to prepare the

four applications for funding, considered just the option implemented. They

assessed it against the counterfactual of the old road being maintained. In all

four subprojects, the economic costs and benefits were calculated over a period

of 34 years. In the three 1999 submissions the net economic benefits were

calculated using a 6% discount rate. The only difference between these three

CBAs was the starting year in which the net benefits were calculated. In the

Huesca-Nueno subproject the base year was 1998, while in the other two

subprojects, in the Teruel province, the costs and benefits were discounted to

1999. In the 2003 submission, Teruel (N) to Santa Eulalia del Campo, the net

economic benefits were calculated using 2002 as a base year and a 5% discount

rate.

Table 13 shows the economic indicators for each of the four subprojects

included in the analysis, together with the underlying assumptions regarding the

base year and discount rate used in the calculations. In all four cases the

economic costs and benefits have been calculated over a period of 34 years,

assuming 3 years of constructions and 31 years of operations thereafter.

The subproject Teruel(N) to Santa Eulalia del Campo should significantly larger

economic benefits than the other the projects. We have not been able to pin

down the specific causes for this, although we believe that the reported NPV

does not include a significant amount of the initial capital costs.

Table 13. Results of ex ante cost benefit analysis

Subproject Discount

rate

Base

year

Net Present Value

(€ million)

Economic

IRR (%)

BCR

Huesca to Nueno 6% 1998 2.60 7.05 1.12


Calamocha 6% 1999 15.98 9.45 1.51


Monreal del Campo 6% 1999 1.57 6.15 1.02

Teruel(N) to Santa Eulalia

del Campo 5% 2002 90.80 16.65 2.93


We have re-calculated these economic indicators using common assumptions

regarding the base year and the discount rate. By doing so, we have been able to

calculate a unique NPV, IRR and BCR covering all four subprojects under study.



We have assumed a discount rate equal to 5.5% (as used in the ex post CBA) and

used 1998 as base year. Overall, the whole project has a positive NPV and

satisfactory IRR and benefit-cost ratio.

Table 14. Results of ex ante cost benefit analysis – Revision

Net Present Value

(€ million, 1998 prices)

Economic IRR

(%)

BCR

Whole project 86.54 9.14 1.56

Source: Frontier Economics using data from Ministerio de Fomento

Financial analysis

The A23 motorway is a toll free road. The applications for funding submitted in

1999 and 2003 do not include any financial analysis for any of the subprojects

under study.

4.3.2 Key aspects of ex ante CBA

Demand analysis

The ex ante cost-benefit analysis assumed that the new segments in the A23 were

not going to generate any induced traffic. On the other hand, the assumed traffic

growth during the period under study ranged between 0.88%, for the last 25

years in the Teruel – Santa Eulalia del Campo subproject (with assumed 1.9% in

the first 5 years), and 3%, for the whole period in the 2 subprojects covering

Santa Eulalia del Campo to Calamocha. In the subproject Huesca to Nueno a

4% traffic growth was assumed throughout the considered period. Growth

assumptions are based on historical information for the 1987-1996 period. In

terms of percentages of heavy goods vehicles the ex ante analysis considered a

minimum of 12 in the Huesca to Nueno subproject, and 27 in the 2 subprojects

covering Santa Eulalia del Campo to Calamocha.

Direct benefits

One of the objectives of the A23, listed in the various applications for funding,

was to achieve significant time savings, thanks to the increase in speeds and the

lower traffic congestion in the new road compared to the old one. In the four

segments under study the speeds were expected to increase, from 63-90 Km/h to

120 Km/h for cars and light good vehicles, and from 51-73 Km/h to 90-97

Km/h for heavy good vehicles.



Table 15. Time savings (minutes) generated by the new road

Subprojects Time savings (minutes)

Car and LGV HGV

Huesca to Nueno 4.4 5.4

Monreal del Campo to Calamocha 5.9 7.3

Santa Eulalia del Campo to Monreal del Campo 9.7 11.8

Teruel Norte to Santa Eulalia del Campo 7.1 8.7


In all the four subproject-specific ex ante CBAs time savings appear to be the

main driver of economic benefits. For all four subprojects the benefits related to

the time savings more than compensate the costs arising from the increase in

vehicle operating costs and fuel consumption. VOC and fuel consumption are

higher in the new road due to higher speeds.

According to the ex ante analysis, operating costs and fuel consumption were

expected to increase, on average for the four subprojects, by 15% for cars and

LGV and by 26% for HGV, with the new road. On the contrary, costs related to

time consumption were expected to decrease by 39% for cars and LGV and 38%

for HGV.

In addition to the time savings, vehicle operating costs and fuel consumption, the

other relevant element included in the calculation of costs and benefits are the

benefits related to the accidents occurring in the road. In all four subprojects the

net benefits related to the reduction of accidents are always positive and

significant. Specifically, the average reduction of unitary costs related to accidents

for the four subprojects is 43% for cars and LGV and 46% for HGV.

Sensitivity analysis

A sensitivity analysis was carried out in each of the four ex ante CBAs. In all

cases two scenarios were tested, regarding the assumed traffic growth and the

value of time. Scenario 1 assumes a lower traffic growth rate in each of the four

subprojects. In Scenario 2, the value of time for cars and LGVs was reduced in

order to induce a 20% reduction in the series of net benefits.



Table 16 shows the economic IRR indicators obtained in the sensitivity analysis

for each of the four subprojects.12 The sensitivity analysis shows a negative NPV

for the subproject Monreal del Campo to Calamocha under both alternative

hypothesis. Also, the subproject Huesca to Nueno shows a negative NPV when

a lower value of time is considered. In all other cases the sensitivity analysis does

not change the sign of the economic indicators. In addition to these two

hypothesis, an additional hypothesis assuming a higher traffic growth was

considered for the subproject Teruel(N) to Santa Eulalia del Campo, resulting in

a 24.75% economic IRR.

Table 16. Results of the sensitivity analysis

Subprojects

Economic IRR Discount

rate Original Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Huesca to Nueno 7.1% 6.4% 3.6% 6%


Calamocha 9.5% 8.5% 7.2% 6%


Monreal del Campo 6.2% 5.3% 4.2% 6%

Teruel Norte to Santa Eulalia

del Campo 16.7% 15.6% 14.0% 5%


4.3.3 Quality of ex ante CBA

Overall, the quality of the ex ante Cost Benefit Analysis of the four subprojects is

high. We have found that all of them follow a well established methodology

proposed by the Ministerio de Fomento. Another positive aspect of the ex ante

CBAs is that it is clearly stated the parameters used (i.e. unit costs, unit

consumptions, value of time, etc.) and their source.

As mentioned above, ex ante CBAs also included sensitivity analysis. Two

alternative scenarios were included regarding the assumed traffic growth and the

value of time.

12 The sign of the other indicators can be easily deducted from this. An IRR higher than the discount

rate results in a positive NPV and a BCR above one. An IRR lower than the discount rate results in

a negative NPV and a BCR below one.



On the other hand, the main drawback of the ex ante CBAs of the four

subprojects is related to the quality of the demand forecast. Based on the

documentation we have reviewed, the methodology used to estimated future

demand is unclear. Also, the assumption that the new infrastructure would not

generate induced traffic is questionable.

Finally, it should be mentioned that ex ante CBAs consider as counterfactual that

the old road would be closed, but actually it was maintained opened and it

currently a significant volume of traffic.

4.4 Differences between ex post and ex ante analysis

Table 17 compares the aggregate results of the ex ante economic analysis with

the results of the ex post CBA for all the four subprojects included in this study,

segments Teruel (N) to Calamocha and Huesca to Nueno.

Table 17. Comparison ex ante and ex post economic CBA (2010 prices)

Ex ante Ex post

Low case High case

Net Present Value (€m) 120.3 -27.7 27.6

Economic IRR (%) 9.14 4.6 6.3

Benefit-cost ratio 1.56 0.9 1.1

Source: Own elaboration with data from the Ministerio de Fomento

As mentioned in section 4.3.1, the ex ante economic indicators for the whole

project have been calculated using the series of net economic benefits

corresponding to the four subprojects. We have recalculated these series using a

common base year, 2010, and the discount factor suggested by the EC Guide to

Cost-Benefits Analysis (5.5%). The original ex ante economic analysis used

either 1998 or 2002 as the base year and a discount factor equal to 5% or 6%.

The economic IRR resulting from the ex ante analysis is 9.14%. This result is

above the range of the ex post CBA carried out in this exercise. However, the

high case scenario in the ex post analysis confirms that the economic benefits of

the project exceed its costs. We note the high case scenario assumes a long-run

growth rate of traffic equal to the growth observed in the corridor since the

completion of the first segments.

There main differences between the two analyses stem from the following areas:

parameters for the value of time and cost of fuel



time savings

volume of traffic and percentage of HGV

safety conditions

Value of fuel and time

In both the ex ante and the ex post analyses, the higher driving speeds achieved

on the new road generate two opposite effects in terms of induced benefits. On

the one hand, higher speeds result in time savings that generate positive

economic benefits. On the other hand, these speeds cause high fuel

consumption and higher vehicle operating costs which result in negative

economic benefits.

Net economic benefits from time savings use parameters for the value of time

for cars, LGV and HGV that Ministerio de Fomento keeps regularly updated.

Ministerio de Fomento also updates regularly the parameters for the cost of fuel

parameters and vehicle operating costs.

Table 18. Parameters for value of time, fuel costs and VOC

Ex ante Ex post

Value of time (€/hour)

Car and LGV 9.3 14.63

HGV 16 25.08

Fuel and VOC

Petrol (€/litre) 0.28 0.58

Diesel (€/litre) 0.25 0.59

Oil (€/litre) 3.06 (3.42) 4.21 (4.71)

Tyres(*)

281 (3,845) 386 (5,285)

Source: Ministerio de Fomento (*)

4 tyres in cars and LGVs, 6 tyres in HGVs

Table 18 shows that fuel cost parameters have increase by more than 100% since

the ex ante analysis was carried out. In contrast, the value of time has increased

by approximately 50%. Time savings and fuel costs are the main drivers of the

net economic benefits induced by the project. The significant decrease of the

economic indicators in the ex post analysis is mainly the result of the change in

relative values of these two parameter sets.



Time savings

The ex ante analysis forecast a total amount of time savings along the four

segments considered equal to 27 and 33 minutes for cars/LGVs and HGVs

respectively. In the ex post analysis, and according to the speed data obtained

from the Ministerio de Fomento, actual time savings achieved through the four

segments are 13 and 9.3 minutes, significantly lower that what was originally

assumed.

Traffic volumes

The ex ante analysis forecast that traffic growth on the new A23 would be

around 3% annually. Historic traffic data shows that the long-run annual growth

rate of traffic has been around 5%. This 5% has been used as the traffic growth

rate after 2010 in the optimistic scenario of the ex post analysis.

Safety conditions

Information provided by the Ministerio de Fomento used in the ex post CBA

suggests that safety condition were undervalued in the ex ante analysis. The

average reduction of fatalities and injuries per km in the ex ante analysis was 53%

and 13% respectively. Ex post information considers an average reduction of

100% and 83% respectively.

4.5 Role of CBA in decision-making process

We have talked with Ministerio de Fomento - Unidad de Carreteras de la

Demarcación de Aragón regarding the role of CBA in the decision making

process. We have received confirmation that the decision to construct the A23

was mainly political. Despite this, the decision among different alternatives

regarding the exact configuration of the road was based on two economic

analyses undertaken by the Demarcación de Carreteras del Estado en Aragón.

For the three subprojects in the province of Teruel, they were included in a study

covering the segment “Teruel - Zaragoza”.13 The Huesca to Nueno was included

in a study covering the segment “Villanueva de Gállego – Nueno”.14

The methodology used in both economic analyses followed the

recommendations to evaluate road projects in Spain published by Ministerio de

Obras Publicas y Transportes at the time. The study covering the segment

“Teruel - Zaragoza” followed the methodology still used today and published in


Levante Aragón, Tramo Teruel – Zaragoza”, Estudio de Rentabilidad, 28 Febrero 1994.


Levante Aragón, Tramo Villanueva de Gállego - Nueno”, Estudio de Rentabilidad, 1992.



1992.15 The study covering the segment “Villanueva de Gállego – Nueno” used

a previous methodology of 1990.

In both cases the methodology recommended by Ministerio de Fomento

proposes the use of a multi-criteria analysis to choose among different

alternatives for each of the sub-segments in which the overall project has been

previously determined. In the analysis reviewed the option to use the current

road is included among the alternatives considered.

Even though the decision to construct the A23 motorway was mainly political,

the choice of alternatives regarding the configuration of the new road appears to

have been based on a sound economic analysis.

15 Ministerio de Obras Públicas y Transportes – Dirección General de Carreteras, “Recomendaciones

para la Evaluación Económica de Estudios y Proyectos de Carreteras”, 1992.


Annexe 1: Detailed results


A23 Motorway in Spain

Figure 6. A23 Motorway – Spain. Economic analysis (€m, 2010 prices) – Low case

Source: Own calculations

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

BENEFITS

Consumers Surplus

Time Benefits 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 8.0 9.0 10.1 10.4 10.6

Vehicle Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -3.1 -3.4 -4.0 -4.1 -4.2

Environmental Benefits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Accident Reduction 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 4.2 4.3 4.7 4.6 7.0 7.9 8.7 8.9 9.1

TOTAL BENEFITS 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.2 12.0 13.5 14.8 15.1 15.5

COSTS

Investment Costs

Land Purchase / Construction / …

Other

Total Investment costs 2.2 34.0 74.3 46.0 13.7 22.0 27.8 27.0 0.0 0.0

Maintanance Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

TOTAL COSTS 2.2 34.0 74.3 46.6 14.7 22.9 28.8 28.0 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

NET BENEFITS -2.2 -34.0 -74.3 -43.3 -9.9 -18.1 -23.5 -22.9 9.4 12.0 13.3 13.7 14.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

BENEFITS

Consumers Surplus

Time Benefits 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7

Vehicle Operating Costs -4.3 -4.4 -4.6 -4.7 -4.8 -4.9 -5.0 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 -5.6 -5.7 -5.8



TOTAL BENEFITS 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4

COSTS

Investment Costs


Other

Total Investment costs


TOTAL COSTS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

NET BENEFITS 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

BENEFITS

Consumers Surplus

Time Benefits 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 16.7 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6

Vehicle Operating Costs -6.0 -6.1 -6.3 -6.4 -6.6 -6.8 -6.9 -7.1 -6.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3



TOTAL BENEFITS 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.1 21.5 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6

COSTS

Investment Costs


Other



TOTAL COSTS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

NET BENEFITS 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.6 20.4 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1

Discount Rate 5.5%

ENPV -27.7

ERR 4.6%

B/C Ratio 0.9

No breakdown figures available





Figure 7. A23 Motorway – Spain. Financial return on investment (€m, 2010 prices) –

Low case


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other

TOTAL INVESTMENT COSTS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,0 13,7 22,0 27,8 27,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Maintenance 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

TOTAL OPERATING COSTS 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

TOTAL OUTFLOWS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,6 14,7 22,9 28,8 28,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

CASH FLOW -2,2 -34,0 -74,3 -46,6 -14,7 -22,9 -28,8 -28,0 -2,6 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5

CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,2 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5

Discount rate 5,0%

FNPV (C) -230

FRR (C) #DIV/0!






Figure 8. A23 Motorway – Spain. Financial return on capital (€m, 2010 prices) – Low

case


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Revenues

Residual values

TOTAL FINANCIAL INFLOWS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Local contribution

Regional contrintribution

National contribution 0.3 5.2 10.7 7.1 2.2 4.9 6.1 6.0

Total national public contribution 0.3 5.2 10.7 7.1 2.2 4.9 6.1 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Maintenance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Total Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

TOTAL FINANCIAL OUTFLOWS 0.3 5.2 10.7 7.7 3.2 5.8 7.1 7.0 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

NET CASH FLOW -0.3 -5.2 -10.7 -7.7 -3.2 -5.8 -7.1 -7.0 -2.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Revenues

Residual values


Local contribution


National contribution


Maintenance 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5



NET CASH FLOW -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Revenues

Residual values


Local contribution




Maintenance 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5



NET CASH FLOW -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Discount rate 5.0%

FNPV (K) -55

FRR (K) N/A



Figure 9. A23 Motorway – Spain. Financial sustainability (€m, 2010 prices) – Low

case


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EU Grant 1,9 28,8 63,6 38,9 11,5 17,1 21,6 21,1

Local contribution


National contribution 0,3 5,2 10,7 7,1

Total national public contribution 0,3 5,2 10,7 7,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Operating subsidies

FINANCIAL RESOURCES 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,0 11,5 17,1 21,6 21,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Passenger vehicles

Goods vehicles

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

TOTAL INFLOWS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,0 11,5 17,1 21,6 21,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other

TOTAL INVESTMENTS COSTS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,0 13,7 22,0 27,8 27,0

Maintenance 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,6 14,7 22,9 28,8 28,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

NET CASH FLOW 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,6 -3,2 -5,8 -7,1 -7,0 -2,6 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

CUMULATED CASH FLOW 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,6 -3,8 -9,6 -16,8 -23,7 -26,3 -27,8 -29,3 -30,7 -32,2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EU Grant

Local contribution




Operating subsidies


Passenger vehicles

Goods vehicles

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

TOTAL INFLOWS 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other

TOTAL INVESTMENTS COSTS 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

NET CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

CUMULATED CASH FLOW -33,7 -35,2 -36,6 -38,1 -39,6 -41,0 -42,5 -44,0 -45,4 -46,9 -48,4 -49,8 -51,3

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

EU Grant

Local contribution




Operating subsidies


Passenger vehicles

Goods vehicles

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

TOTAL INFLOWS 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5

NET CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,2 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5







Figure 10. A23 Motorway – Spain. Economic analysis (€m, 2010 prices) – High case


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

BENEFITS

Consumers Surplus

Time Benefits 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 8.0 9.0 10.1 10.6 11.2

Vehicle Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -3.1 -3.4 -4.0 -4.2 -4.4



TOTAL BENEFITS 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.2 12.0 13.5 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.1

COSTS

Investment Costs


Other

Total Investment costs 2.2 34.0 74.3 46.0 13.7 22.0 27.8 27.0 0.0 0.0


TOTAL COSTS 2.2 34.0 74.3 46.6 14.7 22.9 28.8 28.0 2.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

NET BENEFITS -2.2 -34.0 -74.3 -43.3 -9.9 -18.1 -23.5 -22.8 9.4 12.0 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

BENEFITS

Consumers Surplus

Time Benefits 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.1

Vehicle Operating Costs -4.7 -4.9 -5.1 -5.4 -5.7 -6.0 -6.2 -6.6 -6.9 -7.2 -7.6 -8.0 -8.4



TOTAL BENEFITS 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.9 29.3 30.7

COSTS

Investment Costs


Other



TOTAL COSTS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

NET BENEFITS 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.8 25.1 26.4 27.8 29.3

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

BENEFITS

Consumers Surplus

Time Benefits 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.6 26.9 28.2 29.6 31.1 29.7 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.8

Vehicle Operating Costs -8.8 -9.2 -9.7 -10.2 -10.7 -11.2 -11.8 -12.4 -11.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5



TOTAL BENEFITS 32.3 33.9 35.6 37.3 39.2 41.2 43.2 45.4 38.4 26.5 27.9 29.3 30.7

COSTS

Investment Costs


Other



TOTAL COSTS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

NET BENEFITS 30.8 32.4 34.1 35.9 37.7 39.7 41.8 43.9 37.2 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.2

Discount Rate 5.5%

ENPV 27.6

ERR 6.3%

B/C Ratio 1.1






Figure 11. A23 Motorway – Spain. Financial return on investment (€m, 2010 prices)

– High case


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,6 14,7 22,9 28,8 28,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

CASH FLOW -2,2 -34,0 -74,3 -46,6 -14,7 -22,9 -28,8 -28,0 -2,6 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5

CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,2 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5

Discount rate 5,0%

FNPV (C) -230

FRR (C) #DIV/0!






Figure 12. A23 Motorway – Spain. Financial return on capital (€m, 2010 prices) –

High case


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Revenues

Residual values

TOTAL FINANCIAL INFLOWS 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Local contribution




Maintenance 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

Total Operating Costs 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

TOTAL FINANCIAL OUTFLOWS 0,3 5,2 10,7 7,7 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

NET CASH FLOW -0,3 -5,2 -10,7 -7,7 -1,0 -1,0 -1,0 -1,0 -2,6 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Revenues

Residual values


Local contribution




Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5



NET CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Revenues

Residual values


Local contribution




Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5



NET CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,2 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5

Discount rate 5,0%

FNPV (K) -41

FRR (K) #DIV/0!



Figure 13. A23 Motorway – Spain. Financial sustainability (€m, 2010 prices) – High

case


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EU Grant 1,9 28,8 63,6 38,9 11,5 17,1 21,6 21,1

Local contribution




Operating subsidies


Passenger vehicles

Goods vehicles

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

TOTAL INFLOWS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,0 11,5 17,1 21,6 21,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other

TOTAL INVESTMENTS COSTS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,0 13,7 22,0 27,8 27,0

Maintenance 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 2,2 34,0 74,3 46,6 14,7 22,9 28,8 28,0 2,6 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

NET CASH FLOW 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,6 -3,2 -5,8 -7,1 -7,0 -2,6 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5

CUMULATED CASH FLOW 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,6 -3,8 -9,6 -16,8 -23,7 -26,3 -27,8 -29,3 -30,7 -32,2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EU Grant

Local contribution




Operating subsidies


Passenger vehicles

Goods vehicles

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

TOTAL INFLOWS 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5

NET CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5


2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

EU Grant

Local contribution




Operating subsidies


Passenger vehicles

Goods vehicles

TOTAL REVENUES 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

TOTAL INFLOWS 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0


Other


Maintenance 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5


TOTAL OUTFLOWS 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5

NET CASH FLOW -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,2 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5



