7/22/2015

1

www.mrcmekong.org

MRC Council Study: National Counterparts’

Catchup

1

www.mrcmekong.org

7/22/2015

2

www.mrcmekong.org

Hydrology

Hydraulics

Geomorphology/

Sedimentology

Fish

Water Quality

Vegetation

Invertebrates

Frogs and Reptiles

Affects livelihoods & economies

Birds

Flow is the principle driver.

Changes in volume and timing will affect the system

Depths, velocities and areas inundated will change

Channel shape and sediment will change

Nutrient levels and organic content will be

affected

Amount and location of aquatic and riparian

plants will change

Fisheries will change

Communities change. Food species and

pest species change in abundance

Non-fish fisheries will change

Bird abundances will change

Overa

ll changes in t

he n

atu

re a

nd f

unctionin

g o

f th

e r

iver

ecosyste

m

Hydrology

Hydraulics

Geomorphology/

Sedimentology

Fish

Water Quality

Vegetation

Invertebrates

Frogs and Reptiles

Affects livelihoods & economies

Birds

Flow is the principle driver.

Changes in volume and timing will affect the system

Depths, velocities and areas inundated will change

Channel shape and sediment will change

Nutrient levels and organic content will be

affected

Amount and location of aquatic and riparian

plants will change

Fisheries will change

Communities change. Food species and

pest species change in abundance

Non-fish fisheries will change

Bird abundances will change

Overa

ll changes in t

he n

atu

re a

nd f

unctionin

g o

f th

e r

iver

ecosyste

m

www.mrcmekong.org

River flow and ecosystem functioning • Lowflows:

– basic seasonal nature of the river;

– more or less wetted habitat;

– different hydraulic and chemical conditions.

• Floods: – general geomorphological character, shape and size of river channel;

– inundate floodplains and backwater areas

– mobilise sediments and deposit silt, nutrients and seeds on floodplains;

– maintain moisture levels in the banks that support the trees and shrubs;

– trigger the emergence of adults of aquatic insects, which provide food for fish, frogs and birds;

– stimulate and provide habitat for spawning in fish

• Flow variability, on a daily, seasonal or annual basis: – acts as a form of natural disturbance – maintains habitat and biological diversity;

– dictates the width of the vegetation belt along the water line, which protects the banks against erosion.

7/22/2015

3

www.mrcmekong.org

Water-resource developments change:

• flow regimes;

• water chemistry;

• sediment and temperature regimes;

• habitats;

• fauna and flora;

• ecosystem services on which people depend.

www.mrcmekong.org

H1

H2

H3

H4

H5a

H5b

H6

H7

H8

H9

H10

H11

H12

H13

H14

H15

H16

S1

P1

Hy1

Hy2

Hy3

Hy4

Hy5

F1

F2

F3

F4

G1

G2

G3

G4

G5

G6

G7

G8

G9

I1

I2

I3

WQ11

WQ12

WQ10

WQ1

WQ2

WQ3

WQ4

WQ7

WQ8

WQ9

WQ5

WQ6

V4

V5

V6

V1

V2

V3

7/22/2015

4

www.mrcmekong.org

• Overwhelmingly complex if all viewed at once

SO

• Divide ecosystem into discipline each with a small set of indicators

• Identify what are the main factors affecting change in each indicator (driving linked indicators)

• Focus on each individual relationship

• Use a model to compute permutations

www.mrcmekong.org

DRIFT

Downstream Response to Imposed Flow Transformation

7/22/2015

5

www.mrcmekong.org

The Council Study

www.mrcmekong.org

Biological Resources Assessment (BioRA)

7/22/2015

6

www.mrcmekong.org

Objective of BioRA To provide clear and comparable information on the impacts of proposed thematic developments on the aquatic resources of main-stem Lower Mekong River, inclusive of the Tonle Sap Great Lake and the Mekong Delta.

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Team BioRA Management:

• Dr So Nam, Dr Peter Degan, Dr Cate Brown; Dr Alison Joubert

International and Regional Consultants:

• Geomorph/WQ: Dr Lois Koehnken

• Vegetation: Dr Andrew MacDonald

– Macrophytes (delta): Dr Nguyen Thi Ngoc Anh

– Algae (delta): Ms Duong Thi Hoang Oanh

• Invertebrates: Dr Ian Campbell

• Fish: Dr Ian Cowx, with Dr Kenzo Utsugi (Delta support)

• Mammals and birds: Mr Anthony Stones

• Frogs and reptiles: Dr Hoang Minh Duc

• Tonle Sap processes: Dr Dirk Lamberts

National Counterparts:

Next slide

7/22/2015

7

www.mrcmekong.org

National Counterparts

Country Name Discipline

Cambodia

Geomorphology Toch Sophon

Biodiversity, excl. fish Pich Sereywath

Fish Dr Chea Tharith

Laos PDR

Geomorphology Dr Bounheng Soutichak

Vegetation Thananh Khotpathoom

Fauna, excl. fish Dr Phaivanh Phiapalath

Fish Dr Kaviphone Phouthavong

Thailand Fauna, excl. fish TBD

Fish Chaiwut Grudpun

Viet Nam

Geomorphology Dr Hoang Thanh Tung

Biodiversity, excl. fish Dr Luu Hong Truong

Fish Vu Vi An

www.mrcmekong.org

Step 1: Select scenarios

Baseline

Scenarios

Main steps in BioRA

Step 3: Model hydrology, hydraulics, sediments, WQ

Step 5: Assign Baseline Status and trends

Step 6: Knowledge capture Set up DRIFT all sites

Create response curves

Step 7: Calibration

Step 8: Analysis Run DRIFT for all scenarios and generate prediction of change

Step 4: BioRA Indicators

Step 2: Select focus areas

7/22/2015

8

www.mrcmekong.org

Step 1: Select scenarios

Baseline

Scenarios

Main steps in BioRA

Step 3: Model hydrology, hydraulics, sediments, WQ

Step 5: Assign Baseline Status and trends

Step 6: Knowledge capture Set up DRIFT all sites

Create response curves

Step 7: Calibration

Step 8: Analysis Run DRIFT for all scenarios and generate prediction of change

Step 4: BioRA Indicators

Step 2: Select focus areas

www.mrcmekong.org

Hydrology

Water Balance

Hydraulics

Sediment

Water quality

Economics and resource economics

Biological resource

Social

ECO

NO

MIC

IN

DIR

ECT

SOC

IAL

ENV

IRO

NM

ENTA

L

Six

Th

emat

ic T

eam

s P

LUS

Clim

ate

Ch

ange

Summary of main data flow

DRIFT

3

4

5

6

2

1

7 7

8

IKMP

7/22/2015

9

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Focus Areas

www.mrcmekong.org

Establish nodes Tier Criteria Description

1 International borders Add node at each international border

2 Hydrological zones Add node at downstream end of each Hydrological Zone

3 Geomorphological zones Add node at downstream end of each Geomorphological Zone

4 Tributaries Add node upstream of each major tributary

5 Conservation hotspots Add node upstream and downstream of conservation hotspots

6 Mainstem fish migration pathways

Add node in mid-point of fish migratory pathways.

7 Inundation bands Add node to represent the lowest extent of each inundation band in Tonle Sap Great Lake

8 Salinity Add nodes at extent of flood and drought salinity intrusion

9 Existing water-resource developments

Add node upstream and downstream of locations of major existing water resource developments, plus navigation and sand mining

10 Planned water-resource developments

Add a node at the upstream limit of major dam infrastructure, mines, towns, agricultural areas, etc.

11 Socio-economic zones Add node at downstream end of each Socio-economic Zone

12 Rationalisation 1. Remove nodes that <10 km (river length) apart. 2. Remove nodes at tributaries unimportant for sediment and fish.

7/22/2015

10

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Zones

BioRA Zone 1

BioRA Zone 2

BioRA Zone 3

BioRA Zone 4

BioRA Zone 5

BioRA Zone 8

BioRA Zone 6

BioRA Zone 7

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Focus areas

(FAs) FA7

FA8

FA5

FA4

FA3

FA2

FA1

FA6

7/22/2015

11

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Indicators

www.mrcmekong.org

Geomorphology indicators

Code Indicator

Erosion Erosion (bank / bed incision)

FineCoarse Dry and wet season bed sediment size

Sandbars Availability of sandy bars, islands and insets

Rockreefs Exposure of rocky reefs

PDepth Bedrock pool depth

Clarity Water clarity

7/22/2015

12

www.mrcmekong.org

Vegetation indicators Code Indicator

CUCover

Channel

Extent of upper bank vegetation cover

CLCover Extent of lower bank vegetation cover

CHerb Extent of herbaceous marsh vegetation

CBioRip Biomass of riparian vegetation

CBioAlg Biomass of algae (planktonic and benthic)

CComm Community structure and species composition

FForest

Floodplain

Extent of flooded forest cover

FHerb Extent of herbaceous marsh vegetation

FBio Biomass of riparian/aquatic cover

FBioBG Biomass of cyanobacteria

FBioAlg Biomass of algae (planktonic and benthic)

RipInv Extent of Invasive riparian plant cover

FloatInv Extent of floating and submerged invasive plant cover

www.mrcmekong.org

Macroinvertebrate indicators Code Indicator

Hept Heptageniid mayflies

Beat Baetid mayflies

Emerge Dry season emergence

Palin Palingeniid mayflies

SnailA Snail abundance

SnailD Diversity of snails

N. aperta Neotricula aperta

Bivalve Bivalves abundance

Poly Polychaet worms

Crust Shrimps and crabs

LitDiv Littoral diversity

LitASPT Littoral ATSP

BenDiv Benthic diversity

BenASPT Benthic ATSP

Zoo Zooplankton abundance

7/22/2015

13

www.mrcmekong.org

Fish indicators

Code Indicator

Rithron Rithron resident species

CRes Main channel resident (long distant white) species

CSpawn Main channel spawner (short distance white) species

FSpawn Floodplain spawner (grey) species

Gen Eurytopic (generalist) species

FRes Floodplain resident (black fish)

ERes Estuarine resident species

Anad Anadromous species

Catad Catadromous species

Marine Marine visitor species

NonN Non-native species

www.mrcmekong.org

Herpetofauna indicators

No. Indicator

AquSerp Aquatic serpents

SAquSerp Semi-aquatic serpents

AquTur Aquatic turtles

SAquTur Semi-aquatic turtles

Amphib Amphibians

SAquRep Aquatic/semi-aquatic reptiles

SpAmphib Species richness of riparian amphibians

SpRep Species richness of riparian reptiles

DivAmphib Diversity riparian amphibians

DivRep Diversity riparian reptiles

7/22/2015

14

www.mrcmekong.org

Bird and mammal indicators

No. Indicator

CGround

Birds

Medium / large ground-nesting channel species

SeaFV Small non-flocking land bird of seasonally flooded vegetation

TreeWB Tree-nesting large waterbird

CHole Bank-/hole-nesting species

Grambeds Flocking non-aerial passerine of tall graminoid beds

FGround Large ground-nesting species of floodplain wetlands

CForest Channel-using large species which require bank side forest

CRock Natural rocky crevice nester in channels

WoodWater Dense woody vegetation / water interface

Dolphin

Mammals

Irrawaddy dolphin

Otter Otters

Ung Wetland ungulates

www.mrcmekong.org

BARRIERS

Vegetation

Water quality

Geomorphology

Macroinvertebrates

Fish

Herpetofauna

Birds

Mammals

Hydrologic

Hydraulic

Sediments

Mo

de

lle

d t

ime

-se

rie

s f

rom

th

e D

SF

Indicators and Linked Indicators

7/22/2015

15

www.mrcmekong.org

Indicators and Linked Indicators MAR

Do

Dd

Dq

Fo

Fd

Fq

Fv

T2s

Ddv

Fdv

mxiDry

diDry

mxiT1

diT1

mxiWet

diWet

raiDry

raiT1

raiWet

raiT2

CWidth

PDepth

Clarity

Erosion

FineCoarse

Sandbars

Rockreefs

BARRIER

pH

TSS

ALK

SO4

NO32

NH4N

DO

TOTN

PO4P

TOTP

Si

COD

Salinity

Temp

avChV

maxCQ

minCQ

CSS

Slope

Elevation

avFpV

maxFpV

minFpD

Inun2C

InunArea

FpD

SedConc

SedLoad

SedGrain

SedOnset

SedDur

CGround

Grambeds

CRock

WoodWater

SeaFV

CForest

FGround

CHole

TreeWB

CHerb

FloatInv

CUCover

CLCover

RipInv

CBioRip

CBioAlg

ChComm

FComm

FBioAlg

FBioBG

FForest

FHerb

FBiom

Anad

Catad

Marine

NonN

FSpawn

Gen

ERes

Rithron

CRes

CSpawn

FRes

Palin

SnailA

SnailD

LitDiv

Hept

Baet

Emerge

LitASPT

BenASPT

Zoo

BenDiv

Poly

N. aperta

Bivalve

Crust

Otter

Ung

Dolphin

AquSerp

SAquSerp

AquTurt

SAquTurt

Amphib

SAquRep

SpAmphib

SpRep

DivAmphib

DivRep

Hydrologic

Hydraulic

Water quality

Sediments

Geomorphology

Vegetation

Macroinvertebrates

Fish

Herpetofauna

Birds

Mammals

mo

del

led

eco

syst

em

Key

www.mrcmekong.org

Re

sp

on

se c

urv

es f

or

ea

ch

lin

ke

d in

dic

ato

r

Time-series of change

in indicator A

VegetationHydraulics

Macroinvertebrates

Geomorphology

Modelled hydrology time-series

Linked indicators for Indicator A

Depth

Velocity

Temperature

Macroinvert spp.

Marginal vegetation

Sandy banks

Modelled sediment time-series

Modelled water quality time-series

Indicators and Linked Indicators

7/22/2015

16

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Status and Trends

www.mrcmekong.org

Status and trends

• Baseline status and trajectory of change at every focus area for: – Geomorphology/Habitats

– Water quality

– Riparian vegetation

– Instream macrophytes

– Algae

– Macroinvertebrates

– Fish

– Birds

– Mammals

– Frogs

– Reptiles

• Current (2015) status and past change for each indicator at every focus area: – Identify main driving forces influencing status

• Past conditions : – 1900; 1950; 1990; 2000; 2007

Area: EROSION Status Abundance as % of 2015

2015 1900 1950 1970 2000

Mekong River in Laos PDR D 50 50 50 60

Mekong River in Laos PDR/Thailand D 50 50 60 70

Mekong River in Cambodia D 50 50 60 70

Tonle Sap River C 50 50 60 70

Tonle Sap Great Lake C 50 50 60 70

Mekong Delta D 50 50 60 70

1. impoundments, which reduce sediment delivery and alter the flow regime;

2. sediment mining, which alters channel morphology and induces bank erosion through steepening;

3. land cover changes, which alter the quantity of sediment delivered to the river;

4. irrigation and other extractions, which alter the flow regime.

7/22/2015

17

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Schedule

www.mrcmekong.org

BioRA Schedule

Preparation Meetings: March 2015

Field Visits: March 2015

Status and trends: June 2015

Field Visit 2: July 2015

DSS Set-up – river/TLS: June-July 2015

KCW &Calibration –river/TLS: Sept 2015

KCW – Delta: Sept 2015

Calibration – Delta: November 2015

Specialist Reports: November 2015

Scenario Assessment & Reporting: March/June 2016

7/22/2015

18

www.mrcmekong.org

Knowledge Capture

• Sequential/staggered drafting of Response Curves 1. Geomorphology

2. Biota

• Iterative – Indicators and linked indicators may change

– Motivations for RC must be provided

H1 H2 H3 H4

H5a H5b H6 H7 H8 H9

H10 H11 H12 H13 H14 H15 H16 S1 P1

Hy1 Hy2 Hy3 Hy4 Hy5

F1

F2

F3

F4

G1

G2

G3

G4

G5

G6

G7

G8

G9

I1

I2

I3 WQ11

WQ12

WQ10

WQ1

WQ2

WQ3

WQ4

WQ7

WQ8

WQ9

WQ5

WQ6

V4

V5

V6

V1

V2

V3

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

0 100 200 300 400

Dry season duration (days)

Se

ve

rity

ra

tin

g in

dic

ati

ng

ch

an

ge

in a

bu

nda

nce

www.mrcmekong.org

Calibration

• Run ‘calibration’ scenarios to assist with calibrating RCs:

– Naturalised scenario

– Extreme scenarios

– Stepped scenarios

– Development and exogenous scenarios

• Workshop(s) in Vientiane

• One-on-one sessions facilitated by Skype/email

7/22/2015

19

www.mrcmekong.org

Specialist Reports

1. Discipline-specific description of study area

2. Indicators:

1. Reasons for selection

2. Description

3. Status and trends

4. Response curve evidence-based motivations

www.mrcmekong.org

Scenario Evaluation and Reporting

• Run scenarios through the DRIFT DSS

• Specialists to review outcomes

• Make adjustments to Response Curves if and where deemed necessary

• Draft the reports:

– Thematic

– Cumulative

• Specialists to review and discipline-specific inputs to reports

7/22/2015

20

www.mrcmekong.org

Role of National Consultants

• Support Lead Consultants:

– Data

– Input on Response Curves

– Motivations

• Ensure understand the process

• Feedback to MCs

www.mrcmekong.org

DELIVERABLES Date

Deliverable 1: Progress Report - Preliminary Indicators and Focus Area Done

Deliverable 2: Progress Report - DSS Set-up 31 July 2015

Deliverable 3: Specialist Reports November 2015

Deliverable 4: Populated and calibrated DRIFT DSS November 2015

Deliverable 5: Thematic Scenario Reports 2016

Deliverable 6: Cumulative Scenario Report 2016

7/22/2015

21

www.mrcmekong.org

Report: DSS Set-up. This will contain, inter alia: Revised BioRA indicator list Links to MRC indicators Anticipated direction of change in BioRA indicators

response to changes in linked indicators Trends and Status assessments Layout of DRIFT DSS for BioRA Reference data sets

– Schedule of follow-up activities – Summary of main issues arising from meetings – Copies of presentations made at meetings

Outputs of OSV July Meetings

www.mrcmekong.org

Thank you