myths on lake sarez .doc

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Myths on Lake Sarez risk mitigation and realities

05.08.2007 22:06 msk

Leonid Papyrin

AnalyticsTajikistan

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Failure o t!e "orld #ank $nternational Project on t!e Lake %are& 'isk (iti)ation or 2000*2006. 'ussian

+ersion

,urin) -67*-- in t!e area o Lake %are& t!e or)ani&ations o t!e P/ Tadjik)eolo)ia1 an en)ineerin)*

)eolo)ical team o t!e %out!ern 3ydro)eolo)ical 4pedition Pamir )eop!ysical team o t!e %out!ern

eop!ysical 4pedition topo)rap!ic sur+eyin) team o t!e Tadjik eolo)y %ur+eyin) 4pedition * !a+e

een carried out a )reat amount o ield in+esti)ations. A relati+ely small part o ield 9orks t!ere 9as

ulilled y %4$;4/


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T!e participants presented t!eir +ision o t!e )i+en prolem on t!e joint %9iss*Tadjik 9esite

999.sare&.y.ruooperation in

Tadjikistan. T!e administrator o t!e 9esite is #ak!tier Fai&ie+ * t!e Pro)ramme >oordinator o t!e ao+e*

mentioned /ice. A i) part o )eolo)ical inormation 9as prepared y A.'. $s!c!uk a 9orker rom

T$%%> A; 'T. T!e Project is descried in t!e ros!ure o ;.'. $s!c!uk Lake %are&: Project on 'isk

(iti)ation1. All t!ese inormational materials 9ere discussed at t!e >onerence !eld in ,us!ane in 200E.

$n 200@ t!e T$%%> A; 'T ,irector %.3.;e)matullae+ presented a report at t!e Anni+ersary >onerence

de+oted to Academician (.A. %ado+sky at t!e $nstitute o 4art! P!ysics in (osco9.

A major part o t!e report concerned t!e $nternational Project Lake %are& 'isk (iti)ation1. T!e results o

t!e Project 9ere presented in t!e article o American )eolo)ists 'oert %!uster and ,onald Alord: ?soi

Landslide ,am and Lake %are& Pamir (ountains Tadjikistan !ie (ana)er rom %T?>CD >ompany: GLAC4 %A'4H '$%C ($T$AT$/; P'/B4>T: A

L/#AL '$%C A;ALD%$%.

/n (ay 22*2E t!is year t!e second international conerence 9as !eld in ,us!ane 9!ic! 9as de+oted to

t!e %are& Lake saety. Participants o t!e conerence 9ere aut!oritati+e representati+es rom Tadjikistan

eperts rom ermany $ran Cir)!i&ia 'ussia Turkmenia Turkey and ?&ekistan. T!e >onerence

summari&ed and appro+ed t!e results o t!e "orld #ank Project Lake %are& 'isk (iti)ation or 2000*

20061. A special attention 9as paid to a proposal o t!e Tadjik Aut!orities on usa)e o -7 cuic km o t!e

purest 9ater rom Lake %are&1.
http://www.sarez.by.ru/http://www.sarez.tj/http://www.sarez.by.ru/http://www.sarez.tj/


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$ 9ould like to tell in my paper aout myt!s and realities o a ne9 p!ase o in+esti)ations o t!e %are&

Prolem.

MYTH 1: Results of all the investigations carried out during more than 20 years (since 1997 till 1990)

in the area of Lake Sare ! this is a mi"ture of miscellaneous facts differently inter#reted $y different

researchers% a com$ination of various hy#otheses and su##ositions&'

T!is statement can e ound on t!e 9esite 999.sare&.y.ru $t sounds like a rerain in all t!e listed

pulications. ?sually in order to carry out any ield )eolo)ical in+esti)ations one needs a 9orkin)

!ypot!esis and t!en planned in+esti)ations s!ould conirm or deny it. T!is is an ordinary process durin)

any researc!. $t is natural t!at an aut!or o any !ypot!esis must precisely indicate 9!at to do or

conirmation o !is !ypot!esis and only ater t!e conirmation is otained t!is !ypot!esis 9ill ecome a

act. A !at o to t!e aut!or o t!e !ypot!esis i !e could )i+e at least a ri)!t direction or t!e in+esti)ations.


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T!ere is a type o )eolo)ical 9orks )enerali&ation o researc! results o past years. (ulti*year

in+esti)ations o any oject accumulate acts 9!ic! c!an)e t!e outlook o aut!ors on t!e oject under

in+esti)ations. $n parallel t!e same oject is studied y specialists o +ersatile proessions and ot!er

or)ani&ations. ;e9 data o similar in+esti)ations in ot!er re)ions are ein) accumulated. ;o9 it is c!anced

so t!at aut!ors o in+esti)ations are pro+ided 9it! time and unds in order to analy&e once more all t!e

inormational materials discuss t!e otained results 9it! eperts o +ersatile disciplines treat ield data 9it!

t!e use o ne9 computer tec!nolo)ies and so on and only ater all t!is to prepare a ne9 report * t!is is a

9ell*taken and 9idely used practice. At t!e conerence o -7 a proposal 9as epressed: to )i+e t!e

possiility to t!e ormer researc!ers to )enerali&e t!eir materials. $t 9ould e o sense to make

)enerali&ations on )eolo)ical )eop!ysical !ydrolo)ical and )eodetic in+esti)ations to carry out an analysis

o en)ineerin) projects. T!en t!e summari&ed results s!ould e translated into 4n)lis! ecause it 9as

planned to recruit 4n)lis!*speakin) participants or in+esti)ations. $t 9as needed in order ne9 participants

9ould kno9 9!at 9as done 9!at 9ork 9as started ut not yet completed and 9!at more must e done.

/nly in t!is case t!e reports could e re+ie9ed and ne9 researc!ers 9ould !a+e a moral ri)!t to critici&e

t!em.

As an aut!or and eecutor o all t!e )eop!ysical in+esti)ations perormed in t!e area o Lake %are& $

personally oered at t!e >onerence o -7 and se+eral times later my assistance in )enerali&ation o

)eop!ysical and !ydrolo)ical data ut did not ind any support. T!e "orld #ank and Federal eolo)ical

%ur+ey o ?%A pro+ided unds or t!e 9orks on data )enerali&ation. #ut t!e irst*!and eecutors did not

otain any )rants. T!us t!e or)ani&ers o ne9 in+esti)ations t!emsel+es !a+e created t!eir diiculties

9!ic! t!ey did not o+ercome till no9.

MYTH 2: n a$sence of the Right *ank Landslide&

T!e 'i)!t*#ank Landslide is one o t!e !a&ards or t!e slide*rock dam o Lake %are&. T!e si&e o t!elandslide and +elocity o its displacement determine t!e !ei)!t and si&e o an o+erlo9 9a+e 9!ic! 9ill

appear i t!e landslide is collapsed. T!e +olume o o+erlo9ed 9ater and t!e de)ree to 9!ic! t!e slide*rock

dam 9ill e dama)ed depend just on t!e ao+e*mentioned parameters. T!e irst prediction o 9ater +olume


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>ompany in t!e cloakroom o t!e conerence o -7 9as assertin) t!e same idea ut did not )i+e me any

eplanations or t!is !a+in) promised to 9rite an article on t!is topic. #ut no article !as een 9ritten yet.

'oert %!uster ,onald Alord and Patrick ,ro& accepted t!e landslide to e eIual to 0.5 km E. T!e (inistry

o 4mer)ency o t!e 'epulic o Tadjikistan


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/n t!e 'i)!t*#ank slope t!ere 9ere carried out stationary )eodetic measurements y a net9ork o ran)in)

marks. ?nortunately )eodetic specialists did not )enerali&e t!ese measurements. T!e aut!ors o t!e

!ypot!esis on asence o t!e )i+en landslide state t!at only t!e top layer is displacin) just 9it!in 9!ic! t!e

enc!*marks are installed ut t!ey do not )i+e any mat!ematical sustantiation o t!is. Personally $ did notmana)e to ind any correlation et9een t!e earin)s o t!e enc!mark displacement +ectors and earin)s o

maimum slope o t!e surace relie in t!ese points. T!e sin)le ore!ole drilled in -86 !as a casin)

installed to a dept! o o+er 50 m. At enc!*marks -00 and -0- t!e nearest ones to t!e ore!ole t!e annual


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9ould e conducted in it. Ater t!at t!e ore!ole s!ould e cased y plastic tues up to t!e ore!ole ace

and t!en periodically carried out inclinometric and ca+ernometric measurements alon) t!e entire ore!ole

len)t!. T!e ent o t!e ore!ole and a c!an)e in its diameter 9ill make it possile to determine precisely t!e

position o t!e displacin) surace. T!is tec!nolo)y is used no9 to study landslides t!at itter a t!reat to a

+ery important ojects. Lo))in) in+esti)ations 9ill enale otainin) a detailed c!aracteristics o stren)t!

and dynamic properties o rocks alon) t!e ore!ole perormin) o )eolo)ical reerencin) o reracti+e

oundaries estalis!ed y means o seismic sur+eyin).

A ne9 ore!ole s!ould !a+e een drilled or precise determination o t!e displacin) surace position

+olume and displacement +elocity o t!e landslide 9it!in t!e Project on t!e Lake %are& 'isk (iti)ation or

2000*20061.

MYTH 3: +rguments on a full colla#se of the ,soi -am and a gigantic flood s.ee#ing a.ay the valleysof the *artang/ian+mudaria Rivers and demolishing everything on its .ay u# to the +ral Sea are

sim#ly groundless conclusions of s#ecialists .ho are far from understanding the real sco#e of the

#ro$lem&'

$n reality t!e matter o acts is ar rom trut!. T!e proessional researc!ers ne+er said suc! a nonsense.
http://news.fergananews.com/photos/2007_06/real1_2jpg


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T!ere are t9o !ypot!eses on ormation o t!e ?soi slid*rock dam. T!e aut!ors o t!e ot! !ypot!eses

outlined t!at t!e dam is )enerally stale ut a 9ater o+erlo9 9ill cause a closure c!annel in its nort!ern

9eakened part. T!e +elocity and time o 9as!in) out o t!e closure c!annel 9ere proposed to e dierent.

At t!e same time t!e supporters o t!e ot! !ypot!eses su))ested to conduct t!e most detailed in+esti)ations

and drillin) 9orks in t!e nort!ern rear 9eakened &one 9!ere a closure c!annel is epected and outlined

t!at only t!en a inal conclusion could e made on t!e staility o t!e landslide. >losure c!annels in all t!e

ancient slide*rock dams e+er !appened in t!e Pamirs are located in t!eir rear part. #ut it is not kno9n 9!at

+elocity t!ey !ad. $n order to create a catastrop!ic 9ater reakt!rou)! a closure c!annel o 20*E0 m 9ide or

a series o lar)e cracks 9ould e enou)!.

T!e aut!or o t!e irst !ypot!esis 9as ,r. %ci. A.$.%!eko t!e 3ead o 4n)ineerin) eodynamics %ector

%4$;4/ $nstitute


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appear ut 9ater dra9in) rom t!e lake 9ill proceed slo9ly. T!is is an optimistic !ypot!esis. T!e

!ypot!esis 9as appro+ed y t!e eolo)ical %u*>ommission o t!e ?%%' /%PLA; durin) eaminin) t!e

researc! results on Lake %are& in -88. Ater t!at many )eolo)ists e)an to consider t!e !ypot!esis as a

act t!ou)! .%. Fedorenko !imsel 9rote: T!is is a 9orkin) !ypot!esis o (%? 4n)ineerin) eolo)y

%u*Faculty and %out!ern 3ydro)eolo)ical 4pedition o P/ Tadjik)eolo)ia1. #ut .%. Fedorenko did not

compile a map 9!ic! illustrates !is !ypot!esis and did not take into account t!e results o t!e )eop!ysical

in+esti)ations o -75*-76.

%o t!e direction in 9!ic! i) locks 9ere mo+in) ater t!e reak o t!e asic rock mass is still unkno9n.

3o9e+er t!is small detail completely c!an)es t!e staility assessment o t!e nort!ern 9eakened &one and

determines t!e scale o an epected catastrop!e.

$nte)rated )eop!ysical in+esti)ations o t!e ?soi Landslide 9ere carried out in -75*-76 on a scale o

-:-0000. "it! t!e aid o )ra+imetric sur+eyin) t9o 9eakened &ones 9it! a lo9ered density and a !i)! rock

porosity 9ere distin)uis!ed at t!e dam. T!e nort!ern &one coincides 9it! t!e ao+e*mentioned rear part o

t!e landslide. T!e second &one located in t!e dam center is linked 9it! t!e 9ays o 9ater iltration.

$n -77 ased on t!e analysis o t!e data o t!e Tadjik (% $ !a+e made a prediction t!at t!e a+era)e

multi*year 9ater le+el o Lake %are& increases annually y 0.2 m and t!at e+entually it 9ill reac! permeale

sediments causin) a natural 9as!out o t!e dam and !ence t!e catastrop!ic lood.

$n -87 in t!e lo9ered areas o t!e ?soi dam at t!e joint o t!e rock masses )eolo)ists rom t!e %out!ern

3ydro)eolo)ical 4pedition !a+e re+ealed disconnected permarost areas and t9o linear &ones o t!e ice

maniestations concentration. $ce meltin) can also pose a dan)er or t!e dam staility.

All t!ese rele+ant prolems concernin) t!e dam staility 9ere clearly seen eore -7. To sol+e t!em

carryin) out inte)rated in+esti)ations o t!e dam area co+erin) aout 5 km2

on a scale o -:2000 9ereneeded. All t!ese prolems could !a+e een settled 9it!in t!e Lake %are& 'isk (iti)ation Project1 ut

t!ey remained open.


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MYTH 4: here is a certain danger% $ut it is much smaller than it has $een #reviously sus#ected&

For se+en years already t!is p!rase is tirelessly repeated y !ulsara Pulato+a a 9orker o t!e "orld

#ank. ;e9 researc!ers did not otain any ne9 data on t!e structure o t!e ?soi ,am and 'i)!t #ank

Landslide ecause no ne9 real ield in+esti)ations 9ere carried out. And till no9 t!ey do not kno9 anyot!er dan)ers t!at 9ould t!reaten to t!e ?soi dam ut ne+ert!eless t!ey declare aout a decrease o t!e

dan)er accordin) to t!e results o t!eir acti+ity. (oreo+er t!e aut!ors e)an to declare t!eir ac!ie+ement1

eore t!e 9orks on t!e Project 9ere actually started. $n reality t!ey ur)ently perormed t!e moili&in)

actions in t!e +alleys o t!e #artan) and Pianj 'i+ers 9it!in t!e #A/ /last: at least t!ey arran)ed an

oser+ation and 9arnin) system. All t!is is 9ell and all ri)!t ut 9!y to lu or 'ecently in (osco9 $

!a+e read t!e inormation on t!e Lake %are& state prepared y t!e Tadjik (inistry o 4mer)ence in Bune

2006 or t!e countries*memers o 4uropean*Asian 4conomic ?nion. T!e inormation lists t!e prolems

t!at 9ill arise i a catastrop!ic lood !appens on t!e territory o ?&ekistan and Turkmenia. $ can tell rankly

t!at dama)in) conseIuences 9ill not e small. T!ou)! t!ey do not open t!e trut! t!at t!e lood o suc! si&e

9ill interrupt t!e rail9ay communication et9een ,us!ane and >$%*counties. $n t!e end o -70s a )roup

o eperts rom t!e

%/D?H/,P'/B4>T $nstitute under t!e leaders!ip o L.$. Polad&ade 9ere 9orkin) or a e9 years on t!e

e+aluation o dama)es t!at could e rou)!t to t!e national economy o t!e ?%%' rom an outurst lood


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rom Lake %are&. T!e prediction o t!is )roup o eperts 9as muc! sadder as compared 9it! t!e last

conclusion o t!e (inistry o 4mer)ency o Tadjikistan.

$ndeed it is presently impossile to determine 9!en t!e %are& catastrop!e 9ill !appen tomorro9 in

!undred years or maye muc! later. T!ere is no one amon) t!e li+in) people 9!o could e eye*9itnesses

o a similar catastrop!e and !ence all t!ese 9arnin)s seem unreal. $ s!all )i+e an eample aout a

landslide o t!e same name near t!e #aipa&inskaya 3ydro*4lectrical Plant on t!e a!s! 'i+er. $n -E and

2005 $ took participation in t!e )eop!ysical in+esti)ations o t!is landslide. ,isplacements o t!e slidin)

rocks locked t!e ri+er in -2 and 2002 and posed a real t!reat to lood t!e mac!inery room o t!e Plant.

T!e landslide is no9 under continuous en)ineerin)*)eolo)ical and )eodetic oser+ations. $t 9as studied

9it! t!e aid o ore!ole drillin) and y )eop!ysical met!ods t!e upper part o t!e landslide 9as released.

3o9e+er in spite o !a+in) t!is inormation still no one 9ill undertake to )uarantee t!at no ne9 motions or

displacement o t!e 9!ole landslide 9ill !appen. An etreme caution can e ound in all t!e predictions o

eperts as t!ey !a+e already 9itnessed t!ese e+ents. T!ereore t!e people responsile or t!e saety o t!e

#aipa&inskaya 3ydro*4lectrical Plant say: "!y to 9ait make optimistic or pessimistic predictions to carry

out oser+ations to 9orry $t is necessary to di) a s!ort dry tunnel o a lar)e cross*section on t!e opposite

ank o t!e a!s! 'i+er. $n case i t!e ri+er c!annel is locked a)ain y slidin) rocks t!e 9ater lu 9ill

mo+e t!rou)! t!e tunnel 9it!out causin) any !a&ard1. T!e scale and compleity o t!e %are& prolem is not

comparale 9it! t!e #aipa&inskaya one ut still it reIuires to ind en)ineerin) solutions t!at could pro+idet!e saety in any case.

T!us no9 t!ere are no reasons to speak aout an ac!ie+ed decrease o t!e risk or to state t!at no catastrop!e

9ill !appen in t!e nearest years. %imply t!e lo9 proaility o a catastrop!ic e+ent make t!e people like

or eample !ulsara Pulato+a eel inspired and make irresponsile statements and predictions.


12/20

MYTH 5: 17 cu$ic kilometers of the #urest .ater&

'ecently journalists o Tadjikistan and ?&ekistan started ecitedly speak aout t!e use o -7 cuic

kilometers o t!e purest %are& 9ater or 9ater supply makin) a point ased on t!e representation o t!e

aut!ors o t!e Project. $t is already planned to construct a 600 km pipeline to Lake %are& and to pro+ide 25

million people 9it! 9ater a !u)e proit 9as calculated. $ 9ould like to disappoint t!e ent!usiasts o t!is

idea. T!e purest 9ater eists ut t!e +olume or a lon) time is not -7 km Ealready.

$n -76 -8 and -0 usin) special eIuipment !i)!ly precise measurements o 9ater temperature andminerali&ation 9ere carried out in t!e %are& and %!adau Lakes. T!e 9ater minerali&ation in Lake %are&

9it!in a dept! inter+al o 0 to 50 m 9as eIual in -75 to 280 m)Jl. $t 9as increasin) elo9 t!is dept! le+el

reac!in) --E0 to --50 m)Jl at a dept! o 250 m and deeper. ,urin) t!e past E0 years t!e +alue o

minerali&ation increased. ;o9 it is eIual to -E80*-@0 m)Jl in t!e sta)nant &one o t!e lake.


13/20

T!us t!e ultra res! 9ater 9it! a minerali&ation o 250 to 280 m)Jl in ot! lakes !as already not a +olume

o -7 kmE as earlier epected ut only @*5 kmE and it is located in t!e upper 9ater*runnin) parts o t!e

lakes. $ t!e 9ater le+els in t!e lakes decrease y 50 m or saety purposes t!en no res! 9ater 9ill remain

in t!em. #ut t!e Iuality o e+en t!is remained 9ater can soon e consideraly deteriorated. Lake %!adau is

!ydraulically linked 9it! Lake %are& t!rou)! a coerdam. T!e 9ater color in Lake %!adau is )reenis! is!

in it is inected 9it! tape9orms 9!ic! is typical o sta)nant or lo9*lo9in) 9ater odies. T!is means t!att!e lake is a source o inection 9!ic! is kno9n or a lon) time


14/20

T!ere is one prolem more. T!e o+ernment o Tadjikistan !as issued a license or de+elopment o t!e

lar)e sil+er deposit Ak*,jil)a on t!e ;ort!*Alic!ursky 'id)e. T!e deposit de+elopment 9ill cause a t!reat

o penetratin) industrial 9aste 9aters into t!e Ak*,jil)a 'i+er t!en into ;ort! #a&ardaru a let*!and

triutary o t!e (ur)a 'i+er and inally into Lake %are&. And a)ain Tadjik ecolo)ists keep silence.

T!us a)ain t!ere is a (yt! and a)ain t!e precise data on t!e nature and natural resources are i)nored

ecause t!e trut! prejudices t!e li)!t1 o amateuris! antasies.

Reality 1:+ system of early .arning and monitoring

T!e system o early 9arnin) and monitorin) 9as arran)ed at t!e ?soi Landslide ,am and in t!e 9estern

part o Lake %are&. Location o t!e monitorin) station is +ery con+enient or +isual oser+ations e!ind t!e

dam and controllin) t!e measurin) )au)es. >onstant communication is set 9it! an operator in ,us!ane.

#ut it is necessary to mention t!e ollo9in) t!in). T!e location o t!e oser+ation station 9as selected

proceedin) rom t!e assumption t!at t!e si&e o t!e 'i)!t #ank Landslide and +elocity o its displacement

are small and t!e outurst 9a+e caused y t!e landslide collapse 9ill e 9eak. #ut t!ere are some reasons

to dout t!is assumption. $ t!e collapsed rock mass rom t!e 'i)!t #ank is more t!an 0.E km Et!e 9ater

9a+e 9ill destroy t!e oser+ation station radio*station and antenna. T!us t!e 9arnin) si)nal 9ill not e

transmitted ecause o interruption o communication 9it! t!e station and t!e entire 9arnin) system 9illnot 9ork. T!e same 9ill !appen due to allin) t!e Let #ank Landslide into t!e lake and landslides in t!e

sink!ole o t!e ?soi %lide 'ock ,am. %o t!e 9arnin) system is not intended to 9arn aout a ull*scaled

catastrop!e. #y t!e 9ay t!e !ei)!t o t!e sae islands1 ao+e t!e 9ater line is not enou)! in case o ull*

scaled catastrop!e.

Reality 2: 3eological results of investigations


15/20

3a+in) read t!e article o American )eolo)ists 'oert %!uster and ,onald Alord ?soi Landslide ,am and

Lake %are& Pamir (ountains Tajikistan1 oordinators. $ did not ind a support any9!ere and understood t!at

Tadjikistan did not need c!eap tec!niIues or keepin) Lake %are& in sae state. $ am also )lad t!at Patrick

,ro&


16/20

re+ealed y L.L.Co&lo+sky a )eolo)ist rom %oyu&)ipro+odk!o& in -88 ased on t!e results o t!e route

eamination


17/20

,us!ane $ !a+e met 9it! t!e administrator o t!is 9esite #ak!tier Fai&ie+ in t!e %9iss /ice or

>ooperation in Tadjikistan. #elo9 is my talk 9it! !im.

LP: "!ic! actions 9ill e carried out to miti)ate t!e Lake %are& risk 9it!in t!e ad+ertised Project

#F: ;o any actions are planned to miti)ate t!e Lake %are& risk 9it!in t!e )i+en Project. T!e Project 9as

simply named like t!at.

LP: "!y t!ere is suc! an insultin) relation to t!e ormer researc!ers on your 9esite

#F: Dou !a+e carried out a )reat amount o in+esti)ations and it 9as easier or you to otain at least some

results. "e cannot ad+ertise your results or our o9n money instead o t!e results o our researc! e)inners.

LP: >!apters Geop!ysical in+esti)ations1 and 3ydrolo)y1 are 9ritten totally unproessionally. $ you

!a+e no specialists t!en 9!y not use my reports presented at t!e conerence o -7 or my ot!er articles on

t!is topic instead o t!em

#F: "e do not !a+e t!e ri)!t to pulis! ot!erMs article 9it!out t!e permission o t!e aut!or. T!at is 9!y 9e

decided to mana)e 9it! our o9n orces.

LP: $ demand to remo+e t!is nonsense aout my 9orks rom t!e 9esite immediatelyN

#F: At t!e present time $ cannot do it as 9e !a+e already passed t!e 9esite to t!e (inistry o 4mer)ency

o Tadjikistan. And t!e )eolo)ical inormation on t!e 9esite is under responsiility o 9orkers o T$%%>

A; 'T.

$ could not clariy at t!e (inistry o 4mer)ency o Tadjikistan 9!o is no9 t!e administrator o t!is 9esite.

;o9 $ s!all try to make a s!ort o+er+ie9 o t!e inormation )i+en on t!e 9esite y (ay E 2007. For

eample A.'. $s!c!uk rom T$%%> A; 'T decided to pro+e t!at t!e 'i)!t #ank Landslide is asent oralmost asent and t!at 9it! its collapse into t!e lake t!e outurst 9a+e 9ill e minor. $n t!e time o $nternet

pro+ides t!e possiility to communicate Iuickly 9it! t!e aut!ors ask or t!eir permission and pulis! t!eir

inormation on t!e 9esite and t!en to conduct deates reerrin) to conclusions and opinions o aut!ors or

simply to indicate eact addresses 9!ere one can ind t!is inormation and read and t!en to reer to it durin)

t!e deates. #ut instead o t!e actual articles 9e !a+e to read t!e comments o A.'.$s!c!uk on t!e )eodetic

measurements )eop!ysical in+esti)ations models o 9a+e ormation 9it!out reerences to ori)inals


18/20

Reality 5:Results of the 5nternational /roect

T!e system o 9arnin) and monitorin) 9as created. T!e system cannot 9ork durin) a ull*scaled

catastrop!e. T!ereore t!e system must e up)raded. For t!is it is necessary to install a duplicatin)

oser+ation station 9!ic! 9ould continue to 9ork in case 9!en t!e asic one 9ill e destroyed in a point

asolutely inaccessile or an action o t!e as !i)! as possile outurst 9a+e. T!e Project is called

international ut noody kno9s 9!y it does not !a+e any direct radio*communication 9it! t!e ,epartments

o t!e (inistry o 4mer)ence in Terme& >!ardjou ;ikus and A)!anistan.

;o any ne9 inormation 9as otained on t!e 9orks carried out. T!e aut!ors o a ne9 p!ase o

in+esti)ations could not mana)e 9it! all t!e )eolo)ical data a+ailale y -7 and many o !a&ards or t!e

landslide dam o Lake %are& 9ere remained eyond t!e ield o t!eir +ision. T!e proposed +ariants o

en)ineerin) solutions o t!e prolem !a+e een already studied earlier y 'ussian or)ani&ations ut ased

on )eolo)ical conditions t!ey 9ere rejected y t!e epertise as unreal.

Reality 6: he reason of /roect failure

Till -7 t!e coordinators o t!e Project t!e 9orkers o t!e %9iss %T?>CD >ompany and T$%%> A; 'T

did not !a+e an eperience in t!e )i+en kind o 9orks and undamentals o t!e prolem o Lake %are&.

Presently due to mass departure o specialists t!e %out!ern 3ydro)eolo)ical 4pedition %out!ern
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19/20

eop!ysical 4pedition Tadjik eolo)y %ur+eyin) 4pedition A; 'T. ,urin) a period o -68 to -88 t!e

Administration o P/ Tadjik)eolo)ia1 not once su))ested to T$%%> A; 'T to carry out seismolo)ical

9orks in t!e area o Lake %are& as at t!at time t!e practical or)ani&ations 9ere not dealin) 9it! seismolo)y

yet. #ut t!e $nstitute Administration e+ery time completely reused to do it. $n -88 .%. Fedorenko as a

scientiic leader o t!e %are& in+esti)ations rom t!e (inistry o eolo)y o t!e ?%%' decided personally to

con+ince %.3. ;e)matullae+ 9!o 9as s!ortly eore appointed t!e ,irector o T$%%> A; 'T to

participate in inte)rated in+esti)ations on t!e prolem o Lake %are&. %.3. ;e)matullae+ ans9ered t!e

ollo9in) to t!e )i+en proposal: /ur $nstitute is academic dealin) 9it! )loal seismolo)y. And %are& is a

re)ional and purely researc! prolem. "e do not 9ant to sIuander our resources on suc! triles1. T$%%> A;

'T is really an academic institution and t!e %are& area reIuires to carry out practical in+esti)ations t!ere in

a +ery diicult conditions 9it! t!e use o t!e most ad+anced eIuipment 9!ic! T$%%> A; 'T does not

!a+e. T!e in+esti)ations in t!e %are& area reIuire specialists in en)ineerin) )eolo)y en)ineerin)

)eodynamics en)ineerin) )eop!ysics A;

'T.

%T?>CD is a %9iss intermediary irm. $t is a communicatee et9een t!e sponsors


20/20

Aout t!e aut!or: Leonid P. Papyrin is a minin) en)ineer )eop!ysicist. ,urin) -67

to -@ !e li+ed in ,us!ane and 9as t!e 3ead o t!e Pamir eop!ysical Team. 3e tra+eled y a motor car

and le9 y a !elicopter around t!e entire Tadjikistan. For t!e period o 27 years t!e 9orkers o !is Team

!a+e carried out )eop!ysical in+esti)ations at more t!an -00 ojects located in t!is country. T!e ield

)roups o t!e Team !a+e 9orked in t!e %are& area -0 summer and 2 9inter seasons. $n -@ !e !ad to depart

rom Tadjikistan as a reu)ee due to liIuidation o t!e Pamir Team ecause o departure o all its specialists.

%ince 200E Leonid P.Papyrin is a memer o t!e #oard o Fer)ana.'u1 $normation A)ency eperts

/t!er articles on same t!eme:

Lake %are& in t!e Pamirs as +ie9ed y Tajik journalists
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myths on lake sarez .doc

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