north american economic current: december 2009
DESCRIPTION
North American Consumer Sentiment Improves, but Spending Still WeakNielsen Wire - December 17, 2009A North American snapshot of Nielsen’s Global Economic Current finds the U.S. and Canada with improving consumer confidence, but still hampered by timid spending.Read the full article at http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/north-american-consumer-sentiment-improves-but-spending-still-weak/TRANSCRIPT
Todd HaleJames Russo
Carman Allison
Sep09
Aug 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Chg Aug 09 to Sept 09
Jan 09
Oct09
Canada
United States
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 & + 4%
Neutral: between -1 & +1%
Negative: between -1 & -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
United States Update:• Consumer sentiment improving, spending
still weak• Value retailing continues strong
performance, but grocery growing trips as food matters most
• 3rd Consecutive period of falling prices• Store brand growth slowing, but branded
still on decline• Consumers increasingly looking for deals
Canada Update:• Canadians are feeling more optimistic than
our neighbours – however it has leveled off• Dollars continue to outpace units due to
rising prices• Private Label increased share for the
month fueled by Grocery & HABC • Promotional sales continue to increase • Consumers continue to seek value by
shopping at Discount Retailers
Bottom Leveling
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
Oct 2008
63%
19%
Apr 2009
77%
23%
Jul 2009
71%
26%
Oct 2009
66%
26%
% of global
HHs that believe they are
in a recession
% of global
HHs that believe
they will be out of a recession in the next
12 mos
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
% of U.S. HHs that believe they are
in a recession
% of U.S. HHs that believe
they will be out of a recession in the next
12 mos
Oct 2009
91%
24%
Jul 2009
94%
26%
Apr 2009
95%
19%
Oct 2008
86%
18%
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
Oct 2008 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2009
% of Canadian HHs that believe they are
in a recession
% of Canadian HHs that believe
they will be out of a recession in the next
12 mos
37%
91%
85%
82%
19%22%
33% 32%
84
113
104
84
94
80
103
108106
10096
82
106
83
112110
105
111
96
114
70
80
90
100
110
120
1H05 2H05 1H06 2H06 1H07 2H07 1H08 2H08 1H09 2H09
US Canada
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey
While sentiment has been continually lower in the United States than Canada, both appeared to have hit a bottom in the 1H09
Consumers Taking Advantage of Lower Prices & Increased
Promotions
Nov08
Dec 08
Jan09
Feb09
Mar09
Apr09
May 09
Jun09
Jul09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Oct09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 & plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 & +1% Negative: between -1% & -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 & is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Page 10Source: Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Total Non Farm Employment, U.S. Government
-652K
-504K
-345K
-443K
-304K
-154K
-219K-190K
-11K
-681K
41,000
-597K
-380K
-321K
-175K
-128K-161K
-137K-160K
-122K-144K
-72K
-741K
-681K
-800,000
-700,000
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
10% Unemployment
& Increasing Average Hourly
Work Week
- 139K - 111K
U.S. – Sept. & Oct. Losses, Less than Expected
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
07/12
/0808
/09/08
09/06
/0810
/04/08
11/01
/0811
/29/08
12/27
/0801
/24/09
02/21
/0903
/21/09
04/18
/0905
/16/09
06/13
/0907
/11/09
08/08
/0909
/05/09
10/03
/0910
/31/09
4-week period ending
ClubSupercenterDollarGroceryDrugMass MerchConv/Gas
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips
U.S. - % Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
07/12
/0808
/09/08
09/06
/0810
/04/08
11/01
/0811
/29/08
12/27
/0801
/24/09
02/21
/0903
/21/09
04/18
/0905
/16/09
06/13
/0907
/11/09
08/08
/0909
/05/09
10/03
/0910
/31/09
4-week period ending
ApparelOffice SupplyHHILiquor StoresDepartmentElectronicsToy
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips; versus year ago
U.S. - % Change in Retail Channel Shopping Trips
Source: Scantrack®, a service of The Nielsen Company; (FDM w/ Walmart)
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
08/09
/0809
/06/08
10/04
/0811
/01/08
11/29
/0812
/27/08
01/24
/0902
/21/09
03/21
/0904
/18/09
05/16
/0906
/13/09
07/11
/0908
/08/09
09/05
/0910
/03/09
10/31
/09
4-week period ending
U.S. - % Change in Unit Prices
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
11/04
/06 12
/02/06
12/30
/06 01
/27/07
02/24/0
7 03
/24/07
04/21
/07 05
/19/07
06/16/0
7 07
/14/07
08/11/0
7 09
/08/07
10/06/0
7 11
/03/07
12/01/0
7 12
/29/07
01/26/0
8 02
/23/08
03/22/0
8 04
/19/08
05/17/0
8 06
/14/08
07/12/0
8 08
/09/08
09/0
6/08
10/04/0
8 11
/01/08
11/29/0
8 12
/27/08
01/24/0
9 02
/21/09
03/21/0
9 0
4/18/0
9 05
/16/09
06/13/0
9 0
7/11/0
9 08
/08/09
09/05/0
9 10
/03/09
10/31
/09
Source: Scantrack®, a service of The Nielsen Company; (FDM w/ Walmart)
Still Posting Share Gains
Real Shifting Gains From
Brands
U.S. - Store Brand Unit Share
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
07/12
/0808
/09/08
09/06
/0810
/04/08
11/01
/0811
/29/08
12/27
/0801
/24/09
02/21
/0903
/21/09
04/18
/0905
/16/09
06/13
/0907
/11/09
08/08
/0909
/05/09
10/03
/0910
/31/09
4-week period ending
GroceryDollarMass MerchConv/GasDrugSupercenterClub
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips
U.S. - % Change in Basket Ring Per Trip vs. YAGO
-6-4-202468
1012
07/12
/0808
/09/08
09/06
/0810
/04/08
11/01
/0811
/29/08
12/27
/0801
/24/09
02/21
/0903
/21/09
04/18
/0905
/16/09
06/13
/0907
/11/09
08/08
/0909
/05/09
10/03
/0910
/31/09
4-week period ending
$70K +$30 to $69.9K< $29K
% Items on Deal*
32%32%29%
* Latest Period
Source: Homescan®, a service of The Nielsen Company; excludes gas only or Rx only trips
U.S. - % Change in Grocery Channel % Items on Deal
Canadian Thanksgiving reported a softness in Unit consumption while dollars continued to grow (+4%) due to rising prices.
Consumers continue to respond to value alternatives
Sep09
Aug09
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Oct09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 & plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 & +1% Negative: between -1% & -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/09 &is benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 101
Source: Statistics Canada.
Canada’s Economic Indicators – the 6 month trend
Inflation
Unemployment Rate
Prime Interest Rate*
2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09
8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.7% 8.4% 8.6%
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09
0.10%
-0.30%-0.90% -0.80% -0.90%
-0.10%
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
08/02
/0808
/30/08
09/27
/0810
/25/08
11/22
/0812
/20/08
01/17
/0902
/14/09
03/14
/0904
/11/09
05/09
/0906
/06/09
07/04
/0908
/01/09
08/29
/0909
/26/09
10/24
/09
4-week period ending
Dollars % ChgUnits % Chg
Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada All Channels (GB+DR+MM+WC+GM+TRU)
Canada - % Change in Total Tracked Sales
0
1
23
4
5
67
8
9
08/02
/0808
/30/08
09/27
/0810
/25/08
11/22
/0812
/20/08
01/17
/0902
/14/09
03/14
/0904
/11/09
05/09
/0906
/06/09
07/04
/0908
/01/09
08/29
/0909
/26/09
10/24
/09
4-week period ending
Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada All Channels (GB+DR+MM+WC+GM+TRU)
Canada - % Change in Unit Prices
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
08/02
/0808
/30/08
09/27
/0810
/25/08
11/22
/0812
/20/08
01/17
/0902
/14/09
03/14
/0904
/11/09
05/09
/0906
/06/09
07/04
/0908
/01/09
08/29
/0909
/26/09
10/24
/09
Rolling 12 weekly periods ending
TotalDiscountConventional
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Rolling 12 week periods, reported 4 weekly
Canada - % Change in Shopping Trips vs. YAGO
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
08/02
/0808
/30/08
09/27
/0810
/25/08
11/22
/0812
/20/08
01/17
/0902
/14/09
03/14
/0904
/11/09
05/09
/0906
/06/09
07/04
/0908
/01/09
08/29
/0909
/26/09
10/24
/09
Rolling 12 weekly periods ending
TotalGroceryDrugMass MerchWarehouse
Source: Nielsen Homescan, Rolling 12 week periods, reported 4 weekly
Canada - % Change in $ Basket Ring Per Trip vs. YAGO
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
08/02
/0808
/30/08
09/27
/0810
/25/08
11/22
/0812
/20/08
01/17
/0902
/14/09
03/14
/0904
/11/09
05/09
/0906
/06/09
07/04
/0908
/01/09
08/29
/0909
/26/09
10/24
/09
4 weekly periods ending
Dollar ShareUnit Share
Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada All Channels (GB+DR+MM+WC+GM+TRU)
Canada - Store Brand Share of Sales
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
08/02
/0808
/30/08
09/27
/0810
/25/08
11/22
/0812
/20/08
01/17
/0902
/14/09
03/14
/0904
/11/09
05/09
/0906
/06/09
07/04
/0908
/01/09
08/29
/0909
/26/09
10/24
/09
4 weekly periods ending
% Dollars% Units
Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada Grocery + Drug + Mass Merch
Canada - % Sold on Feature (Temporary Reduced Price)
United States:– James Russo, [email protected]
– Todd Hale, [email protected]
Canada: – Carman Allison, [email protected]
Nielsen Global Buzz:– Chelsea Peters, [email protected]
– Shobhana Srinivasan, [email protected]