overview of gas operations uag analysis activity
TRANSCRIPT
Overview of Gas Operations UAG analysis activity
Technical Requirements TeamJohn Passey
17th October 2012
2
Purpose of today
� To explain our role
� To talk about UAG and it’s trending
� To give an overview of some of our analysis methods
3
Our Role
• National Grid is the Shrinkage Provider working on behalf of the gas community
• We have incentives to minimise and/or understand causes of shrinkage
• Shrinkage Gas = OUG + UAG + CV shrinkage
• UAG ~ 0.5% of throughput
• Shrinkage costs the community ~ £100m pa
small large very small
4
Our Obligations
Transmission Licence (from 1 April 2012) : -
• Modification of Special Condition C8F – SO external incentives.
• Special Condition C29
• Investigate the causes of UAG
• Report on UAG and our ongoing investigations/work activities to Ofgem via regular report.:
• http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/DA20FC28-F348-4F9B-882B-A36048F62203/55319/UAGReportJuly2012.pdf
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-40,0
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-30,0
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-20,0
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-10,0
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10,0
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30,0
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60,0
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70,0
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80,0
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,00
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30/03/2007
28/07/2007
25/11/2007
24/03/2008
22/07/2008
19/11/2008
19/03/2009
17/07/2009
14/11/2009
14/03/2010
12/07/2010
09/11/2010
09/03/2011
07/07/2011
04/11/2011
03/03/2012
01/07/2012
UA
G30-d
ay a
vera
ge
Marc
h 2
007 to
Sept 2
012
UAG
Trending U
AG Trending
UAG
Trending U
AG Trending
-40,0
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-20,0
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00 0
20,0
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40,0
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60,0
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80,0
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00
20/12/2010
20/01/2011
20/02/2011
20/03/2011
20/04/2011
20/05/2011
20/06/2011
20/07/2011
20/08/2011
20/09/2011
20/10/2011
20/11/2011
20/12/2011
20/01/2012
20/02/2012
20/03/2012
20/04/2012
20/05/2012
20/06/2012
20/07/2012
UA
G a
t Clo
se
-ou
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CL
LC
LM
A 1
4 d
ay
Cum
ula
tive E
rror
-1,0
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-400,0
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-200,0
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00 -
200,0
00,0
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400,0
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600,0
00,0
00
20/12/2010
20/01/2011
20/02/2011
20/03/2011
20/04/2011
20/05/2011
20/06/2011
20/07/2011
20/08/2011
20/09/2011
20/10/2011
20/11/2011
20/12/2011
20/01/2012
20/02/2012
20/03/2012
20/04/2012
20/05/2012
20/06/2012
20/07/2012
Cu
mu
lative
Erro
r
66
Understandingdata
IdentifyingPotential
Sources of UAG
Investigation ofSources of UAG
UAG
Analysis
AnalysisInvestigationChecklist
(42 points)
Offtakes
Terminals
Linepack
VLDMCs &Power Stations
Storage
methods
Compressors
DN contactQuarterly meetings
Metering Liaison meetingsControl Centre Liaison meetings
Site work
Site activity
Systematic approach to UAG investigation
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Our Activities
(S)MERs
Site Witnessing
UncertaintyAnalysis
DataMining
Power StationEfficiency (PSET)
IFI work
Site workAnalysis
6yrtrending
UnderstandingData
Rapid response (5day)
Liaisonmeetings
CWV
UAG
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Saltw
ick
H
0
0.5 1
1.5 2
2.5 3
3.5
18/10/2005
18/12/2005
18/02/2006
18/04/2006
18/06/2006
18/08/2006
18/10/2006
18/12/2006
18/02/2007
18/04/2007
18/06/2007
18/08/2007
18/10/2007
18/12/2007
18/02/2008
18/04/2008
18/06/2008
18/08/2008
18/10/2008
18/12/2008
18/02/2009
18/04/2009
18/06/2009
18/08/2009
18/10/2009
18/12/2009
18/02/2010
18/04/2010
18/06/2010
18/08/2010
18/10/2010
18/12/2010
18/02/2011
18/04/2011
18/06/2011
18/08/2011
18/10/2011
18/12/2011
6yr T
ren
din
g s
pre
ad
sh
ee
t –B
ad
da
ta/U
AG
??
?
05/0
606/0
708/0
907/0
809/1
010/1
1
11/1
2
9
Power
EnergyInput
2 SD
3 SD
Power Station Efficiency Tool (SPC chart)
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CWV Time series plot
Regional CWV vs Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
01/0
6 /200
801
/08 /2
008
01/1
0/200
801
/12/2
008
01/0
2 /200
901
/04/2
009
01/0
6/200
901
/08 /2
009
01/1
0 /200
901
/12/2
009
01/0
2/201
001
/04 /2
010
01/0
6 /201
001
/08/2
010
01/1
0/201
001
/12 /2
010
01/0
2/201
101
/04/2
011
01/0
6/201
101
/08 /2
011
01/1
0/201
101
/12/2
011
Re
gio
na
l D
em
an
d [
mc
m]
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Co
mp
os
ite
We
ath
er
Va
ria
ble
Regional Demand [mcm]
Composite Weather Variable
???
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Data mining
•Is the process of analysing data from different perspectives & summarising into useful information
•Finds correlations/patterns in large databases i.e. UAG & “something”
•Importantly, it points towards solutions rather than giving absolute answers
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� Step Process
� 1 Do site flow figures lie within max for the site?
� 1a Has flow reached maximum of the instrumentation capability (i.e. is it maxed out – reached Qmax?)
� 1b Check behaviour of Offtake outlet temperature (investigate if site is flowing when its not supposed to)
� 2 Do the dates coincide with an MER for Offtakes or known error reports for Power Stations ?
� 2a Did the site under investigation pass ME2, check whether there are any outstanding issues?
� 2b Examine meter validation history, does the site in question have trouble with a key piece of instrumentation ?
� 2c VLDMCs, use the Power Station efficiency tool to see if there are any obvious errors
� 3 Was there any site work going on? Have the NG control room logged any activity?
� 4 Check for amendments by EBT team and has he operator changed (amended) the flows due to say site work, were these done on site?
� 4a Should we change to telemeted data?
� 5 Check F1 profile for anomalies
� 5a JFP to see Andy Lees to write a list of sub-tools for 5 – not just looking for spikes in F1
� 5a Can we check on the commercial data for this site?
� 6 Check for alarms in iGMS
� 6a Malcolm Macdonald has reports on all alarms (probably), see if a query can be run with how many meter suspect alarms are being produced
� 6b Check VLDMC alarms – need to understand more about how these are structured
� 6c Check any site alarms – need to understand their structure.
� 7 Check the behaviour of the Pressure Control Valve PCV and FCV
� 8 Check GEMINI for consistency
� 8a Compare iGMS Dvol vs. GEMINI Dvols (set this up as a Business Objects query)
� 9a Look for contamination, have any of the deltaPs got –ve values?
� 9 Check HPMIS alarms page (need list of what to check)
� 10 Check HPMIS EOD page (need list of what to check, is following complete)
� 10a Compare EOD values in flow computer with GEMINI/iGMS volumes
� 10b Check for amendments made by the operator
� 10c Check for any missing data
� 11 Check HPMIS CV Audit page (need list of what to check)
� 11a Compare CV values in flow computer with GEMINI/iGMS values
� 11b Check HPMIS CV at adjacent sites to that under investigation
� 11c Check whether there was any CV capping on the days in question
� 12 Check HPMIS RBD page (need list of what to check)
� 12a Check Linepack calculation (if this is possible)
� 13 Review MAS visits to site in question
� 13a should trend how often sites have a problem & with what, then check site in question against this list to try to indicate where the problem is.
� 14 Review audit reports
� 15 Raise issue with site owner, we want them to check the following:
� 15a Any issues with low odour
� 15b Ask the site/asset owner for assistance� 15c Check the site behaviour with respect to the Pressure Control Valve PCV and FCV
� 15d Has the operator masked alarms/check their record of alarms?
� 16 Perform CWV analysis of the site
� 17a Re-constitute 4 min flow data as would be done as part of MER investigation.
EASY & QUICK
COMPLICATED &TIME CONSUMING
Analysis Investigation Checklist (42 points)
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Contact Details
Please use the contact details below for help and advice
regarding publication frequencies of gas data, or for any other general queries about gas data availability or
content:
e-mail: [email protected]
Tel: +44 1926 65 6474